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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I love him there and I would try to retain him if I were the Jets. But the talk is they will let him go. IDK.
He's an avoid for me now. I won't pay what his owners think he's worth because I think it's likely we've seen his career-best year already.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The talk either centers around adding JJSS at an additional $5-6MM over Crowder or to just let Braxton Berrios (who showed capability) to play in the slot and use that $10MM elsewhere. So far the Jets have not been big spenders so ultimately Crowder may stay in place.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I don't know what to think but he is definitely a hold for me. I think most people feel the way you do. I still have hope, but like you nobody is paying what I think he is worth. Which if I'm wrong about his outlook, that puts him squarely into roster clogger status if he wasn't there already. Even if he does become the Jets WR1 and gets the target bump from Tenn, I still don't know that I can sell him. People hate his guts.
I have a couple owners that do this all the time. They put a player on the block.....I ask what they want for him and they respond with "just make an offer and I will let you know if it is good enough".
My biggest frustration with this is that we value players completely differently. There have been times I have made an offer of players I think are quality guys and get the replay that they are trash. Then he trades for some guy that I view as 3 tiers below the guy I just offered that is "trash". You would think making a trade with a guy like this would be easy because I could give up players I think are lesser for players I want. However, it never seems to work out that way.
The other peeve is when you inquire about a guy you know is 4th or 5th down that owners depth chart because he never plays him and then you inquire and the price jumps through the roof because someone is now interested. I am offering a guy that would be in your lineup for a guy you never play and you want to add two 1st rounders......Ugh.
I find this mostly happens with owners that don't trust their evaluation opinions and are therefore afraid to make a mistake. They want you to make all the offers because they don't want the mistake of offering something low and then that getting accepted.
Right, if I had any Davis shares left I would be holding them and hoping for an opportunity to sell. Maybe he can be an add-in to a larger deal, but that's really contingent on who you're aiming for.
Davis + 1.09 for 1.06? I don't see the owner of 1.06 doing this, maybe 1.07 is a better target if you see a clear tier break in the talent.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Just because a player is 4th or 5gth down his depth chart doesn't lower his value. He may be stacked at 1-3.
Agreed but when you can turn that into a starter at another position that you are severely lacking in with a decently valued offer you should do it. Not tack on 2 first rounders to blow the evenness of the trade out of the water.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Guys do that a lot with QBs in Zealots leagues. The same guy above has started Watson something like three times in four years but won't give him up unless multiple firsts are given, never mind that it's one QB.
Meanwhile he could use all the help he can get at other positions. But boy, if he ever needs to start his third QB he has those points locked up.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah that is what I have had the most success with over the years in terms of moving these kinds of grey area guys. Those are exactly the kind of deals I'm hoping for. I'll gladly give up some of what I perceive a guy's value to be, if it means making a bigger deal that works for me.tangfoot said:
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah agreed I mean I have 4th and 5th WRs named Juju, Chark, Pittman, Julio, etc., and so do any other dynasty owners that are stacked. It is legitimately hard to start some of them and I do like to try and move one or two of those guys to address other issues or other opportunities that I see. But that doesn't mean I'm going to do it for less than what I think is fair just because someone made an offer. Just because I'm not using him doesn't mean I'm going to gift him to you.JohnnyU said:
There's also value in keeping points off of other rosters in the league. That may or may not be more valuable than trading depth for positions of weakness, it can be kind of a nebulous calculation.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I gave up Mixon in a start 1qb league for Watson (didn't have a good QB and he becomes my starter) and a 2021 2nd rd pick (turned out to be 2.07), so I agree, he's holding out for too much for Watson in a start 1qb league. There are smarter ways to get rid of Watson and really help your team rather than hold him forever because you can't get two 1sts.Andy Dufresne said:
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I agree that person should be doing that but not necessarily at your price. I'm not even saying you are making bad offers either, but I'm at no obligation whatsoever to sell my studs short. Sometimes I will come back with something over the top as a counter like adding on those 1sts or whatever but I've moved away from that. I try to be more diplomatic.Gally said:
I think the main disconnect here is that sometimes valuations from one owner to another are just wildly different and there isn't going to be a deal, even when you're interested in player X and even when the owner wants to move player X. If you're too far apart then so be it.
In my experience the vast majority of the time someone tries to tell me they're improving my lineup or team by offering whatever it is, it is almost exclusively bull####. Not that they don't believe it but if you have to try that hard to sell something it probably isn't that good. Also, it often is a ploy and sometimes they don't believe what they're peddling.
Couple years ago a guy got pissed at me because I didn't want OBJ. I *wasn't* interested but he went on and on about how he was going to be the #1 receiver that year (I think it was leading into 2019) and how much he could do for my lineup. Let's get real, if you're telling me you think he is going to be the #1 guy this year, why on Earth would you be trying so hard to sell? Not saying that has anything to do with you just rambling as usual.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
@GallyI get your point, though, and I see risk averse owners making bad decisions all the time in the way that you're describing. It is frustrating to me as well when I offer stuff that I think is a slam dunk help to them. It's a real thing and I am just playing devil's advocate but the situation you described is real. I guess I was just thinking of when that narrative gets thrown at me occasionally.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
First clue you shouldn't do a trade is when the other guy gives you reasons for trading for his player.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Actually I've done a *lot* of deals with cool owners where we had that kind of back and forth banter where we describe what we think of the other's strengths, needs, etc. It can actually be quite helpful, but it *is* a red flag when those unsolicited offers come in like that. Sometimes it is totally on point, though.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Flip side to that is when someone makes an offer to you for one of your players, you should believe that they are interested in that player. No matter how coy they might be.
I think this is true of owners that know what they are doing. However, there are many owners that don't know what they are doing. A quick little, here is how I see it (I usually preface with something like "it looks like you could use some help at the WR2 position in your starting lineup, I think Player X would help in that spot, what do you think?). A single explanation of why you think the offer is a benefit to both teams isn't a problem but the hard sell definitely is.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Personally it is a turn off when someone has to give you reasons for making a trade, but maybe that's just me.
I totally agree with this. Again it comes back to the owner that isn't confident in their evaluations that cause the most issues with making deals. If they don't have confidence then getting to the point of these types of discussions usually goes badly.
That is because you are confident and know what you are trying to do. However, don't you like when an owner succinctly tells you why they think this trade makes sense from both sides so you can see how their evaluations line up with yours? It is valuable information if it doesn't continue to the BS levels of a hard sell.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah the thing is that this information often leads to some other tradeable piece or some other opportunity to make a deal that might involve the original pieces or might not. I've seen counters come at me that I thought were *way* better than the first offer, based on some kind of feedback that got us there.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Maybe, maybe not. I think it's a bad way to start negotiations on a trade. However, I might say something like, "I figured you might be thin at RB and would be interested in player x, let me know if something interests you".
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
"Interested in moving down/up here?" Short and sweet. I'm not really trying to sell anything from a salesman perspective, the offer should be able to speak for itself. But asking the question *might* elicit a response that sheds light on something else or a different way to get there. And to make some kind of human connection that might help in future deals.
"Interested in this?" I'm just trying to be friendly and to open the door for actual conversation. But largely the offers do the talking and it is more of an exception that I say anything at all.
"Interested in this?" I'm just trying to be friendly and to open the door for actual conversation. But largely the offers do the talking and it is more of an exception that I say anything at all.
That is for sure the best way. The further discussion might come in if the guy evaluates thinks completely different so you can figure out where to go.
I picked him up. There was flashes last season. I’m not super optimistic but I’ll be patient with him to see how he fares.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
As opposed to "You're weak at RB and this guy can help you" as the offer of Carlos Hyde for my 5.03 comes in. As happened this morning. FFPC SF and if you're trying to analyze my roster when you give me the sales pitch, you might notice I have Henry, AJones, Robinson and zero room for taking on another player right before cuts. Guess he assumed I was panicking over my Robinson share or something. But yeah I'm going to cut Juju, Corey Davis or Pittman to roster Hyde. I didn't say anything just declined.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I don't see these as substantially different.
It's the way it is delivered. One is being preached to and the other is laying out an observation of "possible" need and if interested let me know. Big difference. It puts the ball in his court without the idea of being told what he needs.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I gotta tell you guys, if I need to have a psychological dossier on guys I trade with as to the "correct" way to go about it, I'm not going to bother too much.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I think over time one figures out what works for them and to some degree, if they are astute about their league mates dos and don'ts, are one step ahead in the trading game. Dart throwers and preachers aren't nearly as successful I wouldn't think.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
That is fair, too. We're in the weeds waiting for FA news here. I need to go jogging or something.
Serious response though is for me personally, I probably apply poker theory concepts way more than I should. Which is to say I'm always reading my opponents and thinking of my own "table image" and what kind of a player they are. I'm not trying to deceive, though, just to get a solid read. There are absolutely people I avoid trying to deal with based on past dealings and conversations. Doesn't mean I won't in the future, I just tend not to reach out as much. Others who I have made deals with and had good relations with are absolutely more likely to find offers from me.
People who continually lowball and try to upsell are annoying. Simple as that. Sometimes the value in the offer is more offputting than the language.
rockaction
Footballguy
I'm with this. Generally, I'm just trying to get a response and a counter and using any technique I can that's not surreptitious and that fosters discussion.
I've gotten really positive feedback at times, other times not. I can't help the way what I'm saying is perceived. I think I agree with you, Andy. I'd rather not step on the neurotic minefield at all and potentially leave hard feelings if that's what it is going to be about.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I think we all agree on this actually. We're picking apart a very narrow situation. Most of my offers have no words whatsoever. These thoughts above only apply once in a while. I've played a couple million hands of poker and my brain is programmed to assess people. I think it is actually a bit of a curse TBH.
ETA programmed to assess people *and* risk/reward scenarios
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I actually quite agree, but I find myself there anyway when people do what we're talking about. It isn't about hard feelings, though, it is about getting productive negotiations happening. If that isn't going to happen I prefer to check out earlier.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm interested in McLaurin's value now - before the draft. Has the needle moved much? Will it even if WFT drafts a QB (which I don't expect them to)?
I'm wondering if I should use him to try and get a couple firsts - and if I can.
I'm wondering if I should use him to try and get a couple firsts - and if I can.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It looks like he likely did look at your roster and figured some owners like having a handcuff. He was also not trying to gouge you in anyway, only asking for a fifth. Expecting him to look at every player on your roster and then to decide what guys would be worth dropping or not is asking a little too much.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I agree with that, but I don't have that expectation at all. My point is that he was trying to upsell me on it, which is what we'd been bantering about upthread. People are always telling us FFPC guys who we should cut and where we have room or don't. And it is annoying. Most times there are grey areas on rosters where I wouldn't hold it against anyone but this team in particular has no #######g room and I even have a message board post talking about players I'm trying to sell to get under the limit. I have no expectation of them looking at my roster that close but if they do it on their own and then offer unsolicited sales pitches that are absurd then yes it's a little bit of a thing. That's all this is. Just to get people to not be used car salesmen. That's it.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Honestly some one saying "You're weak at RB and this guy can help you" along with a trade offer of a handcuff RB for fifth seems innocent enough.
I think we're being a little too sensitive about some of these things - I've seen some ridiculous comments in offers I receive but bottom line it's really only the offer (whether it's good or bad) that matters.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
That wasn't all he said that is just what I quoted. Also I just won the ship and I have Henry, AJones and Robinson. We only get to keep 16 and it is SF. To say I'm weak at RB is weird. All I did is not respond and declined, which I mentioned.
On the second bolded, I have said the same thing upthread so I feel like I'm saying the sky is blue and you're arguing with me in order to tell me that the sky is blue.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Mizelle March ADP has him at #36 overall and WR13. I can see him around 30/WR10 today. A healthy bump, but nothing dramatic.
I think best case you can get a mid/late 1st this year and a 2022 1st. As good as he has been, the people who own the top half of 2021 1sts likely prefer whatever rookie they are enamored with, even though Terry is currently ahead of rookie 1.02 in ADP
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Probably true but I honestly thought I was adding something to the discussion as I find it fascinating. Not really as big of a deal as I think is being inferred. Just that there is some nuance in the way we talk to people in deals, that's really all it is. If I have diarhea of the word processor in this thread, I'll admit that. I'd like to reiterate that I didn't even respond to the guy. Just thought it was worth mentioning as an example of the thing someone else brought up.Maybe you are a little sensitive
