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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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29 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Beats the hell out of making them ridiculously overvalued

I don’t play SF, but I’ve always thought it was kind of cool how the QB value is close to what it is in the NFL. But then again, maybe that’s why I don’t play that format...

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Beats the hell out of making them ridiculously overvalued

At first glance I agree, but then when I think about it I almost think the opposite.  If anything it's ridiculous that RBs are so ridiculously overvalued in 1qb leagues.  I love RBs having lots of value but I'm pretty sure that is solely because traditionally in FF that is what I'm used to.

If I were just wandering into FF right now having never played it before and saw how RBs are ridiculously overvalued in 1qb leagues I would probably think to myself "this is really really stupid that such an unimportant NFL position is the thing this entire game is built upon.".

If I were wandering into FF right now and started with SF I would probably think "man QBs are so important in this, but I guess that makes sense because they're so important in the real NFL too".

Obviously FF's sole purpose isn't to mimmick the NFL, but I think the only reason so many of us accept RB value is simply because we're used to it.  Objectively QBs being super valuable in FF makes a LOT more sense than RBs being super valuable.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:
21 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Yes, Superflex, but QB scoring severely devalued to try to even out position value. For example, in 2020, Allen was top QB and #12 scorer overall in ppg (ignoring Dak since he played less than 5 full games). My first thought was that I should draft Mahomes, but he finished #14 in ppg in 2020 and #26 in 2019. So it is not as clear cut as it might be in other formats.

I’m not saying this in a disparaging way but it seems odd to do SuperFlex and then devalue QBs - but maybe that makes it even more interesting?

I think the intent of the commish was to actually make the player to start in the SF position an actual choice, not a nobrainer to always start a QB, but I think he went overboard. I sent him some feedback that may influence changing the scoring a bit. For example, looking at 2020 regular season in this format:

  • Number of 30+ point games:
    • WRs - 40
    • RBs - 21
    • TEs - 6
    • QBs - 2
    • Def - 1
    • PK - 0
  • Average rank of highest scoring player per position each week:
    • WR - 2.06
    • RB - 2.71
    • QB - 10.88
    • TE - 11.24
    • Def - 22.88 - top scoring defense outscored top scoring QB 4 times
    • PK - 36.59 - top scoring PK outscored top scoring QB 2 times
  • Example: Josh Allen was the top scoring QB, finishing at #8 overall. His best fantasy game of the season under this scoring system was week 15, when he had 359/2 passing and 33/2 rushing. His 27.48 score was beaten by:
    • WR Ridley, who had 10/163/1 receiving for 32.3 points
    • TE Waller, who had 9/150/1 receiving for 32.25 points
    • WR Hopkins, who had 1/0 rushing and 9/169/1 receiving for 32 points
    • RB Pollard, who had 69/2 rushing and 6/63/0 receiving for 29.70 points
    • RB Montgomery, who had 146/2 rushing and 1/16/0 receiving for 28.95 points

I hadn't been expecting such a disparity until I took a look at the 2020 player scoring. If QB scoring was closer to normal, I'd probably be okay with opening with a QB since it is SF. As it is, I think I'd be happier trading back. Not sure if I'll be able to find a trade partner for that.

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Something I’m thinking about it.....just getting into a startup where TEs get 2 PPR and all others get the standard 1. What type of value are we looking at for the position at this point? 


Required to start 1RB 1WR 1TE and then 4 flex. 

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3 hours ago, deadlyrange0321 said:

Something I’m thinking about it.....just getting into a startup where TEs get 2 PPR and all others get the standard 1. What type of value are we looking at for the position at this point? 


Required to start 1RB 1WR 1TE and then 4 flex. 

That would make them right up there with the top wrs for me. I’d draft a te every year. 

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Posted (edited)

The top 4-5 TEs would be on par or better than the top WRs and the rest of the TE field would merely be startable flex players if needed. 

Edited by tangfoot
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The startup league I will be drafting next month has unusual requirements: SF, but with drastically reduced QB scoring; PPR with TE premium; and large starting lineups (96-108 RB/WR/TE starters per week). Stock dynasty rankings don't really reflect this kind of league.

I'm wondering what methodologies others use for unusual league formats like this. Do you just rely upon a tool that enables entry of scoring system and lineup requirements, like Draft Dominator or similar tools? Or do you have other approaches?

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23 hours ago, deadlyrange0321 said:

Something I’m thinking about it.....just getting into a startup where TEs get 2 PPR and all others get the standard 1. What type of value are we looking at for the position at this point? 


Required to start 1RB 1WR 1TE and then 4 flex. 

I just joined a SF TEP league with 2pts for TE's.  Both QB's and TE's are hard to come by. 

How many teams and how many roster spots on each?  If alot of players are rostered, the WW will probably be a wasteland.

If people don't realize that in the startup draft, take advantage of it for when they do. 

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59 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

What's the value of AJ Brown in a SF League? Looking to make a move for him. I know I posted in the Dynasty trade thread but not sure how I feel about that trade.

He was just available in our SF TEP devy dispersal draft (pre-NFL draft) and went #2 overall ahead of: Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Ryan Tannehill, Najee Harris, CeeDee Lamb, Deshaun Watson, Stefon Diggs, Trey Lance, Mark Andrews, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, etc... so I'd say pretty high.

 

 

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I'm picking at 1.09, 1.11, and 2.01 in a 12 team PPR league (no SF or TE premium). My team needs a bit of WR help, and I gotta say, the more I look at R. Moore, E. Moore, Bateman, and Marshall the more excited I get about potentially getting three of these guys on my team. Initially I was trying to trade up into the top 7, but I think I'm going to stay put and snatch these guys up and see what happens.

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1 hour ago, Apple Juice said:

I don't think I can trade AJB for anything within reason. In my eyes he's a near flawless asset. I don't know what I'd be hoping to acquire that I like better. I'm curious to see what people get and give up for him.

Depends on your needs and league structure....  I recently move AJB but I was in "full rebuild" and my only 2 assets were AJB & 1.01 pick.  Team I took over was a train wreck! 

In my 12 team 0.5 PPR, Not SF but 1.0 PPR TE, I moved both assets for Chubb, D Harris, M Sanders, TJ Hock and 2.05

I was happy for my ROI, but there is still work to do. 

My Thinking:  AJB lost competent TE Jonnu Smith and decent WR2 Corey Davis.  OC is Run first, but how much can Josh Reynolds do to make them not put 2 on AJB?  Dez Fitz is a ways off until we know what he can do...   

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10 minutes ago, kutta said:

I'm picking at 1.09, 1.11, and 2.01 in a 12 team PPR league (no SF or TE premium). My team needs a bit of WR help, and I gotta say, the more I look at R. Moore, E. Moore, Bateman, and Marshall the more excited I get about potentially getting three of these guys on my team. Initially I was trying to trade up into the top 7, but I think I'm going to stay put and snatch these guys up and see what happens.

IMHO, I think this is a pretty good year to get a WR......especially at those draft positions! If you wanted a RB, it's a bad class. I like Bateman and Marshall.

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45 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

Depends on your needs and league structure....  I recently move AJB but I was in "full rebuild" and my only 2 assets were AJB & 1.01 pick.  Team I took over was a train wreck! 

In my 12 team 0.5 PPR, Not SF but 1.0 PPR TE, I moved both assets for Chubb, D Harris, M Sanders, TJ Hock and 2.05

I was happy for my ROI, but there is still work to do. 

My Thinking:  AJB lost competent TE Jonnu Smith and decent WR2 Corey Davis.  OC is Run first, but how much can Josh Reynolds do to make them not put 2 on AJB?  Dez Fitz is a ways off until we know what he can do...   

I look at Davis leaving as a negative for AJB. That's the only potential concern I have. I think he's at the same level as guys like Adams who can make plays regardless of double teams but he'll have to show it this season. I have a feeling the Titans will find a way to add another weapon before the season starts.

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32 minutes ago, Apple Juice said:

I look at Davis leaving as a negative for AJB. That's the only potential concern I have. I think he's at the same level as guys like Adams who can make plays regardless of double teams but he'll have to show it this season. I have a feeling the Titans will find a way to add another weapon before the season starts.

Agree but the caliber of QB play in Tenn is a far cry from GB (recently at least).  

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3 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

Agree but the caliber of QB play in Tenn is a far cry from GB (recently at least).  

Sure, but IMO it's a big gamble valuing Adams as WR1 or close to it. His value will take a huge hit whenever Rodgers leaves him, whether that it this offseason or next.

I find myself wondering why various rankings still have Adams ranked higher than Brown, Jefferson, and Metcalf. How many people here would draft Adams ahead of those players in a startup tomorrow?

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On 5/9/2021 at 8:20 AM, deadlyrange0321 said:

Something I’m thinking about it.....just getting into a startup where TEs get 2 PPR and all others get the standard 1. What type of value are we looking at for the position at this point? 


Required to start 1RB 1WR 1TE and then 4 flex. 

 

8 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

The startup league I will be drafting next month has unusual requirements: SF, but with drastically reduced QB scoring; PPR with TE premium; and large starting lineups (96-108 RB/WR/TE starters per week). Stock dynasty rankings don't really reflect this kind of league.

I'm wondering what methodologies others use for unusual league formats like this. Do you just rely upon a tool that enables entry of scoring system and lineup requirements, like Draft Dominator or similar tools? Or do you have other approaches?

I usually start by looking at last year's scoring, sorting players by VBD (last starter method, based on ppg) for the scoring rules of the league I'm joining. I did that here for 2020 RB/WR/TE for ppr, TE prem with 1.5 ppr, and TE prem with 2.0 ppr, assuming a 12-team league where you start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 flex. I'll often also look at the year before that, and projections for the upcoming year.

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1 hour ago, ZWK said:

 

I usually start by looking at last year's scoring, sorting players by VBD (last starter method, based on ppg) for the scoring rules of the league I'm joining. I did that here for 2020 RB/WR/TE for ppr, TE prem with 1.5 ppr, and TE prem with 2.0 ppr, assuming a 12-team league where you start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 flex. I'll often also look at the year before that, and projections for the upcoming year.

One thing I like to do very similar to what you have laid out is to use a 3 year average for scoring to help smooth out any anomalies. So average the WR1 score for the previous 3 years, the WR2 score and so on for each position and evaluate using worst starter from that.

I have found it helps give a slightly better baseline on the positional values and how that tends to shake out.

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43 minutes ago, acarey50 said:

One thing I like to do very similar to what you have laid out is to use a 3 year average for scoring to help smooth out any anomalies. So average the WR1 score for the previous 3 years, the WR2 score and so on for each position and evaluate using worst starter from that.

I have found it helps give a slightly better baseline on the positional values and how that tends to shake out.

If I put in the work to get 3 years of data, then I'll take the 3-year total for each player. That helps distinguish "the good players at this position are really valuable" from "every once in a while a random player at this position has a big year". You can also discover things like "hey, the bit of value that Justin Tucker provides each year actually adds up to something not-so-tiny."

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3 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Sure, but IMO it's a big gamble valuing Adams as WR1 or close to it. His value will take a huge hit whenever Rodgers leaves him, whether that it this offseason or next.

I find myself wondering why various rankings still have Adams ranked higher than Brown, Jefferson, and Metcalf. How many people here would draft Adams ahead of those players in a startup tomorrow?

You are not alone on this thought process.  Even if they had drafted/sighed a new WR2 of substance, would his value drop? 

This can go with Houston WR also now that the Watson situation has grown.  But nobody would even put Coks or Coutee in Adams realm.  

Adams today came out and said Rodger's future "could potentially impact him".  Obviously, his value is directly tied to a high passing offense with a quality QB who has a great relationship & trust built over years of work together. 

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10 hours ago, kutta said:

I'm picking at 1.09, 1.11, and 2.01 in a 12 team PPR league (no SF or TE premium). My team needs a bit of WR help, and I gotta say, the more I look at R. Moore, E. Moore, Bateman, and Marshall the more excited I get about potentially getting three of these guys on my team. Initially I was trying to trade up into the top 7, but I think I'm going to stay put and snatch these guys up and see what happens.

I've just been dealing with a very similar situation (1 QB, .5 PPR). I am also stronger at RB while much weaker at WR - McLaurin, then C. Samuel and then Gage, Miller, etc.). 1 difference is that mine is 16 team.  I had picks 1.10 and 1.12. My goal for months was to trade those for what would have been a 1.05 or 1.06 and hoping Waddle or Devonta were still there. The more I looked, the less overall difference I saw between Waddle/Smith and Bateman, the Moores and Terrace Marshall. As the draft unfolded, it seems my league felt much the same - the WRs were much sought. Accordingly, no QB was taken until the 14th pick (after these top 7 WRs). Luckily, by my reckoning, although Bateman went too soon for me at 8 (BAL didn't hurt his status much) and Rondale went 9. This let me take Elijah with 10, and after Sermon went 11, I got Marshall at 12. I know they don't have quite the gleam of the higher profile careers of Waddle and Smith, but I am much happier having those 2 than I would have been with Devonta.

I will say the 16 teams may make a big difference as talent is stretched and if my guys fall a little short of Smith's production, their projection/upsides should still make them significant producers. I'm mostly just agreeing with you that I like having the two WRs at 10 and 12 better than the one guy I probably could have had at 6.  

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I am one of these owners that undervalues the QB position in FFPC 1 QB leagues. I just acquired Hurts which makes Mahomes expendable for the right value. I am thinking about trying to move him tot he Deshaun Watson owner. but am not sure about the needed add on for a solid return. Just how valuable is Mahomes in FFPC format for those that do in fact value QB. Something like Watson, Javonte Williams+ seems reasonable or am I selling short?

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52 minutes ago, BigAl21 said:

To which part of the question (if in fact it was to my post)?

That you would indeed, be selling short, IMHO.

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24 minutes ago, robb said:

That you would indeed, be selling short, IMHO.

I agree it would be two assets that are either in legal limbo with an uncertain future or unproven rookie, respectively. Not many potential trade partners in a 12 team 1 QB league ...

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15 hours ago, BigAl21 said:

I am one of these owners that undervalues the QB position in FFPC 1 QB leagues. I just acquired Hurts which makes Mahomes expendable for the right value. I am thinking about trying to move him tot he Deshaun Watson owner. but am not sure about the needed add on for a solid return. Just how valuable is Mahomes in FFPC format for those that do in fact value QB. Something like Watson, Javonte Williams+ seems reasonable or am I selling short?

Non-FFPC league, I offered Sanders, 1.10 & 2 x 1st in 2022 for Mahomes.  Rejected FWIW.  His only other QB is NOS T Hill 

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2 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

Non-FFPC league, I offered Sanders, 1.10 & 2 x 1st in 2022 for Mahomes.  Rejected FWIW.  His only other QB is NOS T Hill 

Wow... I posted he’s available and haven’t heard anything. That would be a haul if 1QB league

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Anyone have confidence on what Zeke is worth in picks for 1QB, PPR?

Contract wise it looks like Dallas has an out in 2023... it seems crazy they'd keep him on at $15M/yr. Maybe restructure? Regardless, he'd be 28 to start the 2023 season with almost 2K touches on his resume. I don't really follow Dallas but as a team I wonder if their OL is going to recover and if they won't be pivoting to a little more pass heavy ratio with all the pass catching weapons down there.

I can see them running him hard the next two years, but even if all that abuse doesn't catch up to him, it seems like his time as the focal point of an offense and ppr monster will be in steep decline if not total freefall after the 2022 season. He seems like a great get for a team in win-now mode, and I suspect he has two more low/midRB1 seasons, but it's hard for me to imagine paying top-tier prices for an RB with the cliff edge looming.

Maybe two 2021 low-1sts? A mid and a low? Really have no idea.

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5 minutes ago, Adso said:

Anyone have confidence on what Zeke is worth in picks for 1QB, PPR?

Contract wise it looks like Dallas has an out in 2023... it seems crazy they'd keep him on at $15M/yr. Maybe restructure? Regardless, he'd be 28 to start the 2023 season with almost 2K touches on his resume. I don't really follow Dallas but as a team I wonder if their OL is going to recover and if they won't be pivoting to a little more pass heavy ratio with all the pass catching weapons down there.

I can see them running him hard the next two years, but even if all that abuse doesn't catch up to him, it seems like his time as the focal point of an offense and ppr monster will be in steep decline if not total freefall after the 2022 season. He seems like a great get for a team in win-now mode, and I suspect he has two more low/midRB1 seasons, but it's hard for me to imagine paying top-tier prices for an RB with the cliff edge looming.

Maybe two 2021 low-1sts? A mid and a low? Really have no idea.

I put him on the block this offseason. The best offer I have received is Mostert, and mid-late 2022 1st.  I declined because I value him more.  I also don't need to trade him because the team he is on is a win now team that is back to back champs, so don't want to sell way low when he still provides value to my team.

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12 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I put him on the block this offseason. The best offer I have received is Mostert, and mid-late 2022 1st.  I declined because I value him more.  I also don't need to trade him because the team he is on is a win now team that is back to back champs, so don't want to sell way low when he still provides value to my team.

Just curious - as a Zeke owner, what would you sell him for?  As @Adso mentioned - he could be on the downhill of his career, last year wasn't great production.  Would you take a Tier 3 RB and a 1st?  Like a Drake/Fournette/Melvin Gordon older but still serviceable + mid to late 1st this year? 

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Just now, TVT 0 N S T A said:

Just curious - as a Zeke owner, what would you sell him for?  As @Adso mentioned - he could be on the downhill of his career, last year wasn't great production.  Would you take a Tier 3 RB and a 1st?  Like a Drake/Fournette/Melvin Gordon older but still serviceable + mid to late 1st this year? 

I have no interest in any of those guys you mentioned.  I would trade him for a mid first and early second this year.  Turn him into something like D. Smith/Waddle/Javonte and T. Marshall/E. Moore. I don't think many would pay that price though.

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1 minute ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I have no interest in any of those guys you mentioned.  I would trade him for a mid first and early second this year.  Turn him into something like D. Smith/Waddle/Javonte and T. Marshall/E. Moore. I don't think many would pay that price though.

I agree.  I am in the business for acquiring him but don't think I can pony up with the capital.  I have 1.1, 1.2 and 1.7 - as well as 2.2 (my original pick is 1.7) - I would be interested in unloading that plus a player for Zeke but not sure I would pay much more.  I think unloading your entire draft for 2 years of play is a way Dynasty teams get in trouble.  

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43 minutes ago, TVT 0 N S T A said:

I agree.  I am in the business for acquiring him but don't think I can pony up with the capital.  I have 1.1, 1.2 and 1.7 - as well as 2.2 (my original pick is 1.7) - I would be interested in unloading that plus a player for Zeke but not sure I would pay much more.  I think unloading your entire draft for 2 years of play is a way Dynasty teams get in trouble.  

As a Zeke owner in a non-PPR dynasty, I've come to terms that he is right now the type of player that I will very unlikely be able to move.

I would need quite a bit more than a mid 1st round pick and a middling RB, but that is also about the limit of what most owners are willing to pay for him right now. He's worth more to me than that (for context, my team is probably still a top 4-5 team out of 14 so I'm not in rebuild mode)

So for now I either hope he comes out hot to start the season and see what I can get for him, or I end up riding him through his career.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, JamboTaylor said:

Ruggs price check.

Got offered him for my Fields in a QB1. Already have Lamar.

Talk about coming down in value. DLF calc lists Ruggs as reasonably equal to Fields -- a little bit ahead, Ruggs is, but not too much. I don't know. Personally, I wouldn't give up Ruggs, who might fend off Brown for a starting job this year, for a rookie QB that despite his mobility doesn't seem to be a run-first guy, but who knows? I drafted him in the first round last year and have seen his value plummet. Not sure it could get too much worse, actually, unless he winds up buried on the bench or out of the league, one of which is very unlikely on his rookie deal.

Edited by rockaction
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34 minutes ago, JamboTaylor said:

Ruggs price check.

Got offered him for my Fields in a QB1. Already have Lamar.

What are the odds Aaron Rodgers heads to LV?  What would that do to Ruggs’ value?   I like Fields and if I was QB needy, I would do it.  But Lamar on roster, I would pass.

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Just finished my rookie draft. Doing a "am I crazy?" check here. 

My team is loaded at WR. I have DK, Jefferson, Hopkins, Lamb, plus some real depth (Edwards, Hardman, Shepard). My team is weak at RB (Aaron Jones, Mostert, Mike Davis, Nyheim Hynes). 

I addressed the RB need in the draft by grabbing Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, and Rhamondre. I had some third round picks where I grabbed Josh Palmer and Dwayne Eskridge because I thought they had value I couldn't pass on. 

 

I have been offered Tevin Coleman for Esrkidge. Seriously considering it as I have Carter and can afford to dump Eskridge. Am I selling too high though? 

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2 hours ago, acarey50 said:

As a Zeke owner in a non-PPR dynasty, I've come to terms that he is right now the type of player that I will very unlikely be able to move.

I would need quite a bit more than a mid 1st round pick and a middling RB, but that is also about the limit of what most owners are willing to pay for him right now. He's worth more to me than that (for context, my team is probably still a top 4-5 team out of 14 so I'm not in rebuild mode)

So for now I either hope he comes out hot to start the season and see what I can get for him, or I end up riding him through his career.

I'm a contender in PPR & needed RB help. I traded my 1.09 & K. Hunt for Zeke prior to the NFL rookie draft. For context, I am stacked at WR. Traded Golladay & hot garbage aka E. Engram for Hunt so I, essentially, moved those 2 & my 1.09 for Zeke.

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10 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

I'm a contender in PPR & needed RB help. I traded my 1.09 & K. Hunt for Zeke prior to the NFL rookie draft. For context, I am stacked at WR. Traded Golladay & hot garbage aka E. Engram for Hunt so I, essentially, moved those 2 & my 1.09 for Zeke.

As a contender I'd give Golladay, Engram and 1.09 for Elliott in PPR in a heartbeat. And as a Zeke owner, if I was closer to rebuild, I would consider Hunt and the 1.09, if I was still a contender, it would be tougher for me to take that. Unfortunately, as mentioned, the league I have him in is non-PPR, so WRs (and to an extension rookie picks due to less viable players) have a bit less value so it has been a lot harder to find any real viable trade partners where I can deal him for something that remotely keeps me as competitive this year.

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26 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

What is everyond doing with Davante Parker? I imagine holding like me. I can't get a nibble on him in PPR. Same with Antonio Brown. Maybe I should look to move Gallup for a RB or TE then...

Paired him with Damien Harris & moved them for A Rodgers/J Love & a 2022 2nd 

I hated to part with D Harris (my RB3 behind Chubb & Sanders) but we can start just 1 RB.... (1-3) 

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1 hour ago, Helaire-ious said:

What is everyond doing with Davante Parker? I imagine holding like me. I can't get a nibble on him in PPR. Same with Antonio Brown. Maybe I should look to move Gallup for a RB or TE then...

Gallup probably won't bring you much either. All 3 of those guys are kind of a hold I think unless you get someone who believes in them. 

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1 hour ago, Fruitbat said:

So.....similar to the Zeke question....

Whats a reasonable value in future picks for Derrick Henry?

I’m in a championship window right now so it would take quite a haul to get him from me. I might take two early firsts but I’d have to think about it. If I was rebuilding I’d probably take two random firsts.

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1 hour ago, Fruitbat said:

So.....similar to the Zeke question....

Whats a reasonable value in future picks for Derrick Henry?

Was traded straight up for the 1.02 a couple of weeks ago in one of my leagues.  Think I'd rather have the 1.02 but seemed fair.

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