Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
What's the value of AJ Brown in a SF League? Looking to make a move for him. I know I posted in the Dynasty trade thread but not sure how I feel about that trade.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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Lehigh98
Footballguy
I just joined a SF TEP league with 2pts for TE's. Both QB's and TE's are hard to come by.
How many teams and how many roster spots on each? If alot of players are rostered, the WW will probably be a wasteland.
If people don't realize that in the startup draft, take advantage of it for when they do.
Lehigh98
Footballguy
He was just available in our SF TEP devy dispersal draft (pre-NFL draft) and went #2 overall ahead of: Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Ryan Tannehill, Najee Harris, CeeDee Lamb, Deshaun Watson, Stefon Diggs, Trey Lance, Mark Andrews, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, etc... so I'd say pretty high.
Apple Juice
Footballguy
I don't think I can trade AJB for anything within reason. In my eyes he's a near flawless asset. I don't know what I'd be hoping to acquire that I like better. I'm curious to see what people get and give up for him.
kutta
Footballguy
I'm picking at 1.09, 1.11, and 2.01 in a 12 team PPR league (no SF or TE premium). My team needs a bit of WR help, and I gotta say, the more I look at R. Moore, E. Moore, Bateman, and Marshall the more excited I get about potentially getting three of these guys on my team. Initially I was trying to trade up into the top 7, but I think I'm going to stay put and snatch these guys up and see what happens.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Depends on your needs and league structure.... I recently move AJB but I was in "full rebuild" and my only 2 assets were AJB & 1.01 pick. Team I took over was a train wreck!
In my 12 team 0.5 PPR, Not SF but 1.0 PPR TE, I moved both assets for Chubb, D Harris, M Sanders, TJ Hock and 2.05
I was happy for my ROI, but there is still work to do.
My Thinking: AJB lost competent TE Jonnu Smith and decent WR2 Corey Davis. OC is Run first, but how much can Josh Reynolds do to make them not put 2 on AJB? Dez Fitz is a ways off until we know what he can do...
robb
Footballguy
IMHO, I think this is a pretty good year to get a WR......especially at those draft positions! If you wanted a RB, it's a bad class. I like Bateman and Marshall.
Apple Juice
Footballguy
I look at Davis leaving as a negative for AJB. That's the only potential concern I have. I think he's at the same level as guys like Adams who can make plays regardless of double teams but he'll have to show it this season. I have a feeling the Titans will find a way to add another weapon before the season starts.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Agree but the caliber of QB play in Tenn is a far cry from GB (recently at least).
Tau837
Footballguy
Sure, but IMO it's a big gamble valuing Adams as WR1 or close to it. His value will take a huge hit whenever Rodgers leaves him, whether that it this offseason or next.
I find myself wondering why various rankings still have Adams ranked higher than Brown, Jefferson, and Metcalf. How many people here would draft Adams ahead of those players in a startup tomorrow?
ZWK
Footballguy
I usually start by looking at last year's scoring, sorting players by VBD (last starter method, based on ppg) for the scoring rules of the league I'm joining. I did that here for 2020 RB/WR/TE for ppr, TE prem with 1.5 ppr, and TE prem with 2.0 ppr, assuming a 12-team league where you start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 flex. I'll often also look at the year before that, and projections for the upcoming year.
One thing I like to do very similar to what you have laid out is to use a 3 year average for scoring to help smooth out any anomalies. So average the WR1 score for the previous 3 years, the WR2 score and so on for each position and evaluate using worst starter from that.
I have found it helps give a slightly better baseline on the positional values and how that tends to shake out.
ZWK
Footballguy
If I put in the work to get 3 years of data, then I'll take the 3-year total for each player. That helps distinguish "the good players at this position are really valuable" from "every once in a while a random player at this position has a big year". You can also discover things like "hey, the bit of value that Justin Tucker provides each year actually adds up to something not-so-tiny."
Birdie048
Footballguy
You are not alone on this thought process. Even if they had drafted/sighed a new WR2 of substance, would his value drop?
This can go with Houston WR also now that the Watson situation has grown. But nobody would even put Coks or Coutee in Adams realm.
Adams today came out and said Rodger's future "could potentially impact him". Obviously, his value is directly tied to a high passing offense with a quality QB who has a great relationship & trust built over years of work together.
Catbird
Footballguy
I've just been dealing with a very similar situation (1 QB, .5 PPR). I am also stronger at RB while much weaker at WR - McLaurin, then C. Samuel and then Gage, Miller, etc.). 1 difference is that mine is 16 team. I had picks 1.10 and 1.12. My goal for months was to trade those for what would have been a 1.05 or 1.06 and hoping Waddle or Devonta were still there. The more I looked, the less overall difference I saw between Waddle/Smith and Bateman, the Moores and Terrace Marshall. As the draft unfolded, it seems my league felt much the same - the WRs were much sought. Accordingly, no QB was taken until the 14th pick (after these top 7 WRs). Luckily, by my reckoning, although Bateman went too soon for me at 8 (BAL didn't hurt his status much) and Rondale went 9. This let me take Elijah with 10, and after Sermon went 11, I got Marshall at 12. I know they don't have quite the gleam of the higher profile careers of Waddle and Smith, but I am much happier having those 2 than I would have been with Devonta.
I will say the 16 teams may make a big difference as talent is stretched and if my guys fall a little short of Smith's production, their projection/upsides should still make them significant producers. I'm mostly just agreeing with you that I like having the two WRs at 10 and 12 better than the one guy I probably could have had at 6.
I am one of these owners that undervalues the QB position in FFPC 1 QB leagues. I just acquired Hurts which makes Mahomes expendable for the right value. I am thinking about trying to move him tot he Deshaun Watson owner. but am not sure about the needed add on for a solid return. Just how valuable is Mahomes in FFPC format for those that do in fact value QB. Something like Watson, Javonte Williams+ seems reasonable or am I selling short?
robb
Footballguy
I agree it would be two assets that are either in legal limbo with an uncertain future or unproven rookie, respectively. Not many potential trade partners in a 12 team 1 QB league ...
Birdie048
Footballguy
Non-FFPC league, I offered Sanders, 1.10 & 2 x 1st in 2022 for Mahomes. Rejected FWIW. His only other QB is NOS T Hill
Wow... I posted he’s available and haven’t heard anything. That would be a haul if 1QB league
Anyone have confidence on what Zeke is worth in picks for 1QB, PPR?
Contract wise it looks like Dallas has an out in 2023... it seems crazy they'd keep him on at $15M/yr. Maybe restructure? Regardless, he'd be 28 to start the 2023 season with almost 2K touches on his resume. I don't really follow Dallas but as a team I wonder if their OL is going to recover and if they won't be pivoting to a little more pass heavy ratio with all the pass catching weapons down there.
I can see them running him hard the next two years, but even if all that abuse doesn't catch up to him, it seems like his time as the focal point of an offense and ppr monster will be in steep decline if not total freefall after the 2022 season. He seems like a great get for a team in win-now mode, and I suspect he has two more low/midRB1 seasons, but it's hard for me to imagine paying top-tier prices for an RB with the cliff edge looming.
Maybe two 2021 low-1sts? A mid and a low? Really have no idea.
Contract wise it looks like Dallas has an out in 2023... it seems crazy they'd keep him on at $15M/yr. Maybe restructure? Regardless, he'd be 28 to start the 2023 season with almost 2K touches on his resume. I don't really follow Dallas but as a team I wonder if their OL is going to recover and if they won't be pivoting to a little more pass heavy ratio with all the pass catching weapons down there.
I can see them running him hard the next two years, but even if all that abuse doesn't catch up to him, it seems like his time as the focal point of an offense and ppr monster will be in steep decline if not total freefall after the 2022 season. He seems like a great get for a team in win-now mode, and I suspect he has two more low/midRB1 seasons, but it's hard for me to imagine paying top-tier prices for an RB with the cliff edge looming.
Maybe two 2021 low-1sts? A mid and a low? Really have no idea.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I put him on the block this offseason. The best offer I have received is Mostert, and mid-late 2022 1st. I declined because I value him more. I also don't need to trade him because the team he is on is a win now team that is back to back champs, so don't want to sell way low when he still provides value to my team.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Just curious - as a Zeke owner, what would you sell him for? As @Adso mentioned - he could be on the downhill of his career, last year wasn't great production. Would you take a Tier 3 RB and a 1st? Like a Drake/Fournette/Melvin Gordon older but still serviceable + mid to late 1st this year?
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I have no interest in any of those guys you mentioned. I would trade him for a mid first and early second this year. Turn him into something like D. Smith/Waddle/Javonte and T. Marshall/E. Moore. I don't think many would pay that price though.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I agree. I am in the business for acquiring him but don't think I can pony up with the capital. I have 1.1, 1.2 and 1.7 - as well as 2.2 (my original pick is 1.7) - I would be interested in unloading that plus a player for Zeke but not sure I would pay much more. I think unloading your entire draft for 2 years of play is a way Dynasty teams get in trouble.
As a Zeke owner in a non-PPR dynasty, I've come to terms that he is right now the type of player that I will very unlikely be able to move.
I would need quite a bit more than a mid 1st round pick and a middling RB, but that is also about the limit of what most owners are willing to pay for him right now. He's worth more to me than that (for context, my team is probably still a top 4-5 team out of 14 so I'm not in rebuild mode)
So for now I either hope he comes out hot to start the season and see what I can get for him, or I end up riding him through his career.
JamboTaylor
Footballguy
Ruggs price check.
Got offered him for my Fields in a QB1. Already have Lamar.
Got offered him for my Fields in a QB1. Already have Lamar.
rockaction
Footballguy
Talk about coming down in value. DLF calc lists Ruggs as reasonably equal to Fields -- a little bit ahead, Ruggs is, but not too much. I don't know. Personally, I wouldn't give up Ruggs, who might fend off Brown for a starting job this year, for a rookie QB that despite his mobility doesn't seem to be a run-first guy, but who knows? I drafted him in the first round last year and have seen his value plummet. Not sure it could get too much worse, actually, unless he winds up buried on the bench or out of the league, one of which is very unlikely on his rookie deal.
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Birdie048
Footballguy
What are the odds Aaron Rodgers heads to LV? What would that do to Ruggs’ value? I like Fields and if I was QB needy, I would do it. But Lamar on roster, I would pass.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Zow
Footballguy
Just finished my rookie draft. Doing a "am I crazy?" check here.
My team is loaded at WR. I have DK, Jefferson, Hopkins, Lamb, plus some real depth (Edwards, Hardman, Shepard). My team is weak at RB (Aaron Jones, Mostert, Mike Davis, Nyheim Hynes).
I addressed the RB need in the draft by grabbing Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, and Rhamondre. I had some third round picks where I grabbed Josh Palmer and Dwayne Eskridge because I thought they had value I couldn't pass on.
I have been offered Tevin Coleman for Esrkidge. Seriously considering it as I have Carter and can afford to dump Eskridge. Am I selling too high though?
My team is loaded at WR. I have DK, Jefferson, Hopkins, Lamb, plus some real depth (Edwards, Hardman, Shepard). My team is weak at RB (Aaron Jones, Mostert, Mike Davis, Nyheim Hynes).
I addressed the RB need in the draft by grabbing Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, and Rhamondre. I had some third round picks where I grabbed Josh Palmer and Dwayne Eskridge because I thought they had value I couldn't pass on.
I have been offered Tevin Coleman for Esrkidge. Seriously considering it as I have Carter and can afford to dump Eskridge. Am I selling too high though?
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
I'm a contender in PPR & needed RB help. I traded my 1.09 & K. Hunt for Zeke prior to the NFL rookie draft. For context, I am stacked at WR. Traded Golladay & hot garbage aka E. Engram for Hunt so I, essentially, moved those 2 & my 1.09 for Zeke.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
What is everyond doing with Davante Parker? I imagine holding like me. I can't get a nibble on him in PPR. Same with Antonio Brown. Maybe I should look to move Gallup for a RB or TE then...
As a contender I'd give Golladay, Engram and 1.09 for Elliott in PPR in a heartbeat. And as a Zeke owner, if I was closer to rebuild, I would consider Hunt and the 1.09, if I was still a contender, it would be tougher for me to take that. Unfortunately, as mentioned, the league I have him in is non-PPR, so WRs (and to an extension rookie picks due to less viable players) have a bit less value so it has been a lot harder to find any real viable trade partners where I can deal him for something that remotely keeps me as competitive this year.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Paired him with Damien Harris & moved them for A Rodgers/J Love & a 2022 2nd
I hated to part with D Harris (my RB3 behind Chubb & Sanders) but we can start just 1 RB.... (1-3)
foxco
Footballguy
Gallup probably won't bring you much either. All 3 of those guys are kind of a hold I think unless you get someone who believes in them.
kutta
Footballguy
I’m in a championship window right now so it would take quite a haul to get him from me. I might take two early firsts but I’d have to think about it. If I was rebuilding I’d probably take two random firsts.
foxco
Footballguy
Was traded straight up for the 1.02 a couple of weeks ago in one of my leagues. Think I'd rather have the 1.02 but seemed fair.
Prior to the draft I traded away DH for the 1.04 and 1.08.
I won it all last year and I'm still a strong contender this year. My roster age is pretty high and while I don't think he's going to fall off a cliff he has to regress from last year and his value is as high now as it ever will be again. I think the value is pretty good, but I'm still not 100% this was the best move for my team. (1QB, 2RB/2WR/2FL/1TE PPR my remaining RB's are: Chubb, Ekeler, Montgomery, and a few RB5's)
That said, I turned around and traded the 1.04 and my 2022 1st (presumably late) for AJ Brown, so in combination it looks like:
Gave: D Henry, 2022 1st (late)
Got: AJ Brown, 2021 1.08
Pretty happy with that.
what's the latest pricing of D Adams? Anyone see any movement lately or is everyone waiting to see about the Rodgers situation. I'm wondering if I should shop and try to sell at a slight depreciation of value. Looking to start with a guy like Etienne as well as some additional pieces (future 1st,
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I haven't seen anything but my guess is he is unmovable. Nobody is going to pay a slight depreciation from what was previously really, really high. You're just not going to get an offer that is good enough. Most likely.
It really sucks if Rodgers leaves, but I do believe in Adams talent. If they put an NFL quarterback on the field in GB, Adams is going to get heavy targets because he is that good. It won't be what we've wanted or what we've come to expect from his connection with Rodgers. But if week 1/2/3 roll around with whatever garbage the Packers put at QB out there, and Adams puts up 9/134/1, *that* is the time to sell for slight depreciation. If so inclined.
Doesn't mean you can't shop him, though. If you find something let us know.
Lehigh98
Footballguy
First set of blind bidding last night in our SF TEP devy league, 24 teams, 2 sets of players...
Collins, Nico HOU WR ($35.00)
Rodgers, Amari GBP WR ($32.00)
Mills, Davis HOU QB ($31.00)
Eskridge, D'Wayne SEA WR ($30.00)
Palmer, Josh LAC WR ($30.00)
Stevenson, Rhamondre NEP RB ($20.00)
Eskridge, D'Wayne SEA WR ($16.00)
Palmer, Josh LAC WR ($15.00)
Taylor, Tyrod HOU QB ($15.00)
Atwell, Tutu LAR WR ($15.00)
Gainwell, Kenneth PHI RB ($13.00)
Fitzpatrick, Dez TEN WR ($11.00)
Taylor, Tyrod HOU QB ($11.00)
Tremble, Tommy CAR TE ($10.00)
Mond, Kellen MIN QB ($10.00)
Mills, Davis HOU QB ($8.00)
Jordan, Brevin HOU TE ($5.00)
Atwell, Tutu LAR WR ($5.00)
Tremble, Tommy CAR TE ($5.00)
Trask, Kyle TBB QB ($5.00)
Hawkins, Javian ATL RB ($4.00)
Doyle, Jack IND TE ($2.00)
Reynolds, Josh TEN WR ($2.00)
Gray, Noah KCC TE ($2.00)
Wallace, Tylan BAL WR ($2.00)
Nwangwu, Kene MIN RB ($1.00)
Dissly, Will SEA TE ($1.00)
Schwartz, Anthony CLE WR ($1.00)
Granson, Kylen IND TE ($1.00)
Collins, Nico HOU WR ($35.00)
Rodgers, Amari GBP WR ($32.00)
Mills, Davis HOU QB ($31.00)
Eskridge, D'Wayne SEA WR ($30.00)
Palmer, Josh LAC WR ($30.00)
Stevenson, Rhamondre NEP RB ($20.00)
Eskridge, D'Wayne SEA WR ($16.00)
Palmer, Josh LAC WR ($15.00)
Taylor, Tyrod HOU QB ($15.00)
Atwell, Tutu LAR WR ($15.00)
Gainwell, Kenneth PHI RB ($13.00)
Fitzpatrick, Dez TEN WR ($11.00)
Taylor, Tyrod HOU QB ($11.00)
Tremble, Tommy CAR TE ($10.00)
Mond, Kellen MIN QB ($10.00)
Mills, Davis HOU QB ($8.00)
Jordan, Brevin HOU TE ($5.00)
Atwell, Tutu LAR WR ($5.00)
Tremble, Tommy CAR TE ($5.00)
Trask, Kyle TBB QB ($5.00)
Hawkins, Javian ATL RB ($4.00)
Doyle, Jack IND TE ($2.00)
Reynolds, Josh TEN WR ($2.00)
Gray, Noah KCC TE ($2.00)
Wallace, Tylan BAL WR ($2.00)
Nwangwu, Kene MIN RB ($1.00)
Dissly, Will SEA TE ($1.00)
Schwartz, Anthony CLE WR ($1.00)
Granson, Kylen IND TE ($1.00)
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Value check on Mike Davis? Seems like 2021 he's locked into the lead back role, possibly 2022 if the Falcons go QB and Def like they should in next year's draft.
I recently paid the 3.07 and a 2022 3rd for him. I think I got somewhat of a steal. If I were a rebuilding team, I’d likely want at worst a mid 2nd for him.
