What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Fanduel Week 7 (1 Viewer)

After reading some of those ownership % I think there are some guys that aren't on the radar that should be. I see another good week for stafford and Tate at home, and with riddick and Ebron out and jones dealing with Norman boldin could be a solid cheap option. Everyone is on aj green vs Cleveland, why not Jeremy hill? If there's ever a game where you can predict 20 carries for him this would be it. NE may be the easy defense to roll out, but how do you not play Minnesota? If it was a rb that was scoring almost double the average points of the next best guy but was the same price we'd be all over it. Got to hand it to zimmer, he should get coach of the year if that team wins the north again. TY Hilton should dominate targets, and that Rogers guy also comes in cheap with Dorset, Allen,and moncreif out.

 
Lots of people on cousins as well but no one getting a piece of Matt jones. He's quietly 8th in rushing vs a lions defense that can't seem tiger it together. 

 
This is my current entry for a cash-like game against 3 other very average GMs:

Matt Ryan

Laveon & Jacquizz

Julio, Evans & Benjamin

Doyle

Bryant

Patriots

My two concerns are 1) Benjamin's status and 2) Jacquizz and Evans both from TB.

 
chet said:
This is my current entry for a cash-like game against 3 other very average GMs:

Matt Ryan

Laveon & Jacquizz

Julio, Evans & Benjamin

Doyle

Bryant

Patriots

My two concerns are 1) Benjamin's status and 2) Jacquizz and Evans both from TB.
Click to expand...
I keep running into this issue - it seems if I am paying up in a couple spots,  I land on the Pats D.  For cash are we saying two different things if we are saying that the Pats D will have a field day AND Bell is going to have a good day? 

 
Snorkelson said:
After reading some of those ownership % I think there are some guys that aren't on the radar that should be. I see another good week for stafford and Tate at home, and with riddick and Ebron out and jones dealing with Norman boldin could be a solid cheap option. Everyone is on aj green vs Cleveland, why not Jeremy hill? If there's ever a game where you can predict 20 carries for him this would be it. NE may be the easy defense to roll out, but how do you not play Minnesota? If it was a rb that was scoring almost double the average points of the next best guy but was the same price we'd be all over it. Got to hand it to zimmer, he should get coach of the year if that team wins the north again. TY Hilton should dominate targets, and that Rogers guy also comes in cheap with Dorset, Allen,and moncreif out.
Click to expand...
I think the work that each got last week is scaring people off of Hill a lot.  Gio has been the better back, Hill's shoulder has been hurting, and Gio just got 3 goalline carries (i believe in a row) in a game. 

 
With the high team total NE has, everyone is talking Brady and Gronk; maybe even a little Bennet.  Am I the only one on Edleman though? I have him locked in a cash lineup but could pivot off him to Landry.  

 
Baab200 said:
With the high team total NE has, everyone is talking Brady and Gronk; maybe even a little Bennet.  Am I the only one on Edleman though? I have him locked in a cash lineup but could pivot off him to Landry.  
Click to expand...
I can't do any receiver of Brady's in a cash LU personally.  Too variable where they will go.  

That said, I am a Pats fan and have 4 lineups ready to go for $1 gpps:

Brady/Gronk, Brady/Bennett, Brady/Edelman/White, and a Blount/NE.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
KarmaPolice said:
I can't do any receiver of Brady's in a cash LU personally.  Too variable where they will go.  

That said, I am a Pats fan and have 4 lineups ready to go for $1 gpps:

Brady/Gronk, Brady/Bennett, Brady/Edelman/White, and a Blount/NE.  
Click to expand...
Maybe I'll throw that lineup into a triple up and a 100 man league.

 
Can I leave $800 on the table with a cash game line up?  Normally, I wouldn't dream of it, but...

G. Smith

Gillislee/Rodgers

J. Jones/AJ Green/Evans

Gronk

Bryant

New England

 
Theres some interesting things happening on a few lines this week

TB/SF:  60% of the action is going on TB, but the line has moved from TB as a two point favorite to SF as a one point favorite.
NE/PIT: 87% of the action is going on NE, but the line has moved from NE as a 7.5 point favorite to a 7 point favorite.  A half a point doesnt sound like much, but 7 represent a very important number.  For 87% of the action to be going one direction and the book to move the line the other direction off of 7.5 and onto 7 is a big deal.
BAL/NYJ: 73% of the action is going on BAL, but the line has moved from a pick'em, to BAL as a favorite with news of Geno starting, to now the NYJ are a two point favorite.
OAK/JAX:  78% of the action is going on Oakland.  The line has not moved all week.  Jacksonville opened as a 1.5 point favorite, and they still are, despite 78% of the action going on Oakland.

 
And the props are starting to come out

Michael Carbtree has a prop of 5.5 receptions.  Im pretty much all in on him this week in GPPs.  His yardage prop is only 55.5 though
Julio Jones has a prop of 105.5 recieving yards.  Are you ****ing kidding me!?
Mike Evans has a prop of 80.5 for refrence
Demarco Murray has a prop of 90.5 rushing yards
Ajayi and Forte both have a prop of 50.5

 
Last edited by a moderator:
McCoy traveled with team,  maybe he does play.    I definitely am buying  into what Dodds was saying about a trap week.   Things would be easier  if there was only one cheap back available.  I agree on the Crabtree front. 

 
NixonMask said:
Theres some interesting things happening on a few lines this week

TB/SF:  60% of the action is going on TB, but the line has moved from TB as a two point favorite to SF as a one point favorite.
NE/PIT: 87% of the action is going on NE, but the line has moved from NE as a 7.5 point favorite to a 7 point favorite.  A half a point doesnt sound like much, but 7 represent a very important number.  For 87% of the action to be going one direction and the book to move the line the other direction off of 7.5 and onto 7 is a big deal.
BAL/NYJ: 73% of the action is going on BAL, but the line has moved from a pick'em, to BAL as a favorite with news of Geno starting, to now the NYJ are a two point favorite.
OAK/JAX:  78% of the action is going on Oakland.  The line has not moved all week.  Jacksonville opened as a 1.5 point favorite, and they still are, despite 78% of the action going on Oakland.
Click to expand...
Its been a while since I studied line movements, but isn't it NOT significant UNLESS the line drops to less than 7?

Also, what do these movements tell you?  Is there recent news on NE?  Is Vegas thinking Edelman, Bennett and/or others are out versus questionable?  Or is the line moving because the cash flow is below expectation?

 
It would be similiar to if the line was originally on 7 and 87% of the action was going one direction, but the line moved to 7.5 in the other direction.  Vegas is essentially saying NE is the favorite, but we REALLY don't think they can win this game by more than a TD.

All of these line movements in favor of the home team.  I assume that has alot to do with the movement in all of these games.  The NE/PIT movement is apparently because the experts value Big Ben at about 5 points.  PIT opened as a one point favorite, so swing it 5 points, in some experts eyes, it should be NE -4 now, not NE -7.5.  I dont personally agree with that thinking, but Im also not betting tens of thousands of dollars on this game.

The Oakland Jacksonville one is the most interesting to me.  West coast teams traveling east for a 1pm game is a thing. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
NixonMask said:
It would be similiar to if the line was originally on 7 and 87% of the action was going one direction, but the line moved to 7.5 in the other direction.  Vegas is essentially saying NE is the favorite, but we REALLY don't think they can win this game by more than a TD.

All of these line movements in favor of the home team.  I assume that has alot to do with the movement in all of these games.  The NE/PIT movement is apparently because the experts value Big Ben at about 5 points.  PIT opened as a one point favorite, so swing it 5 points, in some experts eyes, it should be NE -4 now, not NE -7.5.  I dont personally agree with that thinking, but Im also not betting tens of thousands of dollars on this game.

The Oakland Jacksonville one is the most interesting to me.  West coast teams traveling east for a 1pm game is a thing. 
Click to expand...
Thanks for the reply.  I had always operated under the assumption that Vegas is attempting to set the line to where 50% of the action is on either side of the line.  Does Vegas set lines contrary to that approach when they are "very confident"?  Because all those people who are getting NE-7 when a neutral line that follows action should be having to deal with NE-9 (or whatever)....Doesn't that set them up for a bigger outlay if their models are wrong?  I thought they were just trying to make money on the rake....

 
Megla said:
Lee and Rodgers are more than Hopes, they will be heavily owned in Cash LUs, I'd say outside of Lambo all of these will have at least 25% ownership.
Click to expand...
This is confusing me.  You think M. Lee will be >25% owned in cash LUs?  

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Thanks for the reply.  I had always operated under the assumption that Vegas is attempting to set the line to where 50% of the action is on either side of the line.  Does Vegas set lines contrary to that approach when they are "very confident"?  Because all those people who are getting NE-7 when a neutral line that follows action should be having to deal with NE-9 (or whatever)....Doesn't that set them up for a bigger outlay if their models are wrong?  I thought they were just trying to make money on the rake....
Click to expand...
No problem.  Its been a while since I bet heavily myself so I am a little rusty too.  Going from 7.5 to 7 isnt quite as relevant as 7 to 7.5, but anytime those numbers are involved in matters.  My understanding of bookmakers is that they are willing to take uneven action if they believe the public is wrong.  Obviously splitting the action 50/50 is just guaranteed no risk money on the rake, but bookmakers know what theyre doing.  If their numbers say NE should be a -3.5 favorite, then in the long term they are probably right.  But if the public has bet the line up to 7.5 and they want to make sure smart bettors dont then come in and take action on Pit +7.5 then dropping it to 7 helps make sure that the vast majority of their action stays on NE.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
i can already tell based on my season long runbad the guy whos gonna annoy the living #### out of me tomorrow.  drumroll please...

jack doyle.

i just dont feel like this guy is a good play.  every fiber of my being tells me hes sucks and that offense is so bad right now.  plus tenn is top third vs the pass in general and top half vs te.  but people are going to lazily throw him in their lineups.

which means one of the following happens: 1. i dont play him and he goes off.  something like 8-96-2.  not super likely, ill put those odds at about 20%.  2. i succumb to groupthink and do play him just to avoid embarassment and my suspicions are confirmed as he goes 2-15.  give those odds a little less of a chance.  lets say 15%.  but by far the most likely scenario at 65% is: 3. does nothing the entire game and then catches a td late in the 4th to make value bailing out all the people who used him against me as he passes the te i used who had a decent game but didnt score (probably walker or barnidge who goes like 5-75) and was much more expensive.

 
sooted72 said:
i can already tell based on my season long runbad the guy whos gonna annoy the living #### out of me tomorrow.  drumroll please...

jack doyle.

i just dont feel like this guy is a good play.  every fiber of my being tells me hes sucks and that offense is so bad right now.  plus tenn is top third vs the pass in general and top half vs te.  but people are going to lazily throw him in their lineups.

which means one of the following happens: 1. i dont play him and he goes off.  something like 8-96-2.  not super likely, ill put those odds at about 20%.  2. i succumb to groupthink and do play him just to avoid embarassment and my suspicions are confirmed as he goes 2-15.  give those odds a little less of a chance.  lets say 15%.  but by far the most likely scenario at 65% is: 3. does nothing the entire game and then catches a td late in the 4th to make value bailing out all the people who used him against me as he passes the te i used who had a decent game but didnt score (probably walker or barnidge who goes like 5-75) and was much more expensive.
Click to expand...
He keeps landing in my LUs, and I keep thinking the same damn thing.  It looks like he is Dodds' #2 for the week, and a lot of others like him too.  Just not sure. 

How do you feel about the pivot to V.Davis with Reed out though?

 
NixonMask said:
No problem.  Its been a while since I bet heavily myself so I am a little rusty too.  Going from 7.5 to 7 isnt quite as relevant as 7 to 7.5, but anytime those numbers are involved in matters.  My understanding of bookmakers is that they are willing to take uneven action if they believe the public is wrong.  Obviously splitting the action 50/50 is just guaranteed no risk money on the rake, but bookmakers know what theyre doing.  If their numbers say NE should be a -3.5 favorite, then in the long term they are probably right.  But if the public has bet the line up to 7.5 and they want to make sure smart bettors dont then come in and take action on Pit +7.5 then dropping it to 7 helps make sure that the vast majority of their action stays on NE.
Click to expand...
Every time I think I understand this stuff, you post something else and I get confused all over again. 

 
Im not an expert or a bookie.  Im just sharing my understanding.  I feel like I have a much better grasp than the average person, but I would never call myself an expert.  Apparently next week on Sharp's podcast he is going to have his Vegas expert on to talk about lines, movement, what movement means, and how to understand what Vegas actually thinks about a game.  I am looking forward to it.

 
KarmaPolice said:
He keeps landing in my LUs, and I keep thinking the same damn thing.  It looks like he is Dodds' #2 for the week, and a lot of others like him too.  Just not sure. 

How do you feel about the pivot to V.Davis with Reed out though?
Click to expand...
I'm pretty heavy on Davis and Doyle, with Gronk in my Geno LU.  They just make everything else work for me.

 
NixonMask said:
Im not an expert or a bookie.  Im just sharing my understanding.  I feel like I have a much better grasp than the average person, but I would never call myself an expert.  Apparently next week on Sharp's podcast he is going to have his Vegas expert on to talk about lines, movement, what movement means, and how to understand what Vegas actually thinks about a game.  I am looking forward to it.
Click to expand...
I appreciate the info and your thoughts, I find it interesting.  It's just every time you post about the line movements, I still stare at it and think "Ok, well what does this mean".  So are they not as big on NE as we think, and like the Jets, 9ers, and Jax this week?

 
KarmaPolice said:
He keeps landing in my LUs, and I keep thinking the same damn thing.  It looks like he is Dodds' #2 for the week, and a lot of others like him too.  Just not sure. 

How do you feel about the pivot to V.Davis with Reed out though?
Click to expand...
dont really like davis this week.  he did have 2 great plays in the last game though but 4 targets + cousins on the road = meh.  there are things to like with davis, most noteworthy having some exposure vs det pass d at a cheap price.  but i think doyle is ahead of him.

te is so strange to me this week.  love walker but my ### still hurts from last week.  love barnidge but i mean how can you do it in cash games???  not sure about gronk.  so expensive.  my style is more of a try to find value at te style.  but i will say that the last time i was killing it in the fd 50/50s was when i was running it back with gronk every week last year (2 years ago???).  so there is that.  dennis pitta and i are never ever ever ever getting back together.  rudolph god no not vs philly...

heh...maybe doyle is the right answer after all...

 
Bobcat10 said:
I'm pretty heavy on Davis and Doyle, with Gronk in my Geno LU.  They just make everything else work for me.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I am having trouble getting off these guys when I see LUs with Murray and 2-3 stud WRs entered in with the cheap TEs in there. 

I will roll with it, but am trying to get gpp LUs going without the likes of Rodgers, Doyle, and Davis for the most part. 

 
hunter henry is super intruiging but for whatever reason i seem to auto-ignore guys in time shares.  atl is bottom 3rd vs tes and they do lock down the top 2 wrs so henry may be able to run free.  obv hes capable of making dynamic plays in the middle of the field.  and hes cheapish.

 
sooted72 said:
dont really like davis this week.  he did have 2 great plays in the last game though but 4 targets + cousins on the road = meh.  there are things to like with davis, most noteworthy having some exposure vs det pass d at a cheap price.  but i think doyle is ahead of him.

te is so strange to me this week.  love walker but my ### still hurts from last week.  love barnidge but i mean how can you do it in cash games???  not sure about gronk.  so expensive.  my style is more of a try to find value at te style.  but i will say that the last time i was killing it in the fd 50/50s was when i was running it back with gronk every week last year (2 years ago???).  so there is that.  dennis pitta and i are never ever ever ever getting back together.  rudolph god no not vs philly...

heh...maybe doyle is the right answer after all...
Click to expand...
That's exactly what is going through my mind as I look at the TEs.  Been burnt by the cheap guys a lot, but also don't want to roll with Geno to get Gronk in the lineup.  I like Brate this week, but I have Evans and Rodgers all over my cash LUs too.  Agree that this week is brutal for TEs.

 
KarmaPolice said:
That's exactly what is going through my mind as I look at the TEs.  Been burnt by the cheap guys a lot, but also don't want to roll with Geno to get Gronk in the lineup.  I like Brate this week, but I have Evans and Rodgers all over my cash LUs too.  Agree that this week is brutal for TEs.
Click to expand...
yeah totally agree.

every week i play the cheap guy at te and he ####s the bed.  with the one exception of henry that one week.  last week paid up to mid tier for delanie in the dream matchup.  TWO TARGETS.  just not sure what to do anymore.  dont really wanna pay up for gronk.  you know what if he goes off ill happily lose to him.  you pay that price you deserve to get elite results.

delanie and barnidge are by far my 2 favorite plays for cash games this week but it feels icky.

 
and for those of you who think im a psycho there actually is a precedent here for me...

it was last year and the player was scott chandler.  it was eerily similar to doyle this week.  the prior week gronk had gotten hurt early on and chandler had gotten tons of targets in the 2nd half and had a huge game.  the following week gronk was out and everyone was all on chandler.  i was like no that guy sucks dont play him and had 0 exposure.  so brady hardly looks at him all game.  somehow philly scores like 5 tds in a row to start blasting the patriots out of nowhere.  patriots are desperately trying to make a 4th qtr comeback and chandler scores a meaningless td with like 3 minutes left in the game.  i shudder when i think about how much that td cost me...

 
KarmaPolice said:
I appreciate the info and your thoughts, I find it interesting.  It's just every time you post about the line movements, I still stare at it and think "Ok, well what does this mean".  So are they not as big on NE as we think, and like the Jets, 9ers, and Jax this week?
Click to expand...
Theres no reason to think that Vegas doesnt like NE to win, but I am pretty confident they think the game will be alot closer than the public does.  If anything that helps Brady though.  If Pittsburgh can keep it close then he will have an incentive to keep racking up yards.

On the others, I think Vegas like Jacksonville to win.  Theyre letting almost all their action for that game come in on Oakland and they just arent budging with that line.  That means more action is probably going to come in on Oakland, and apparently they are fine with that.  The Jets game could mean anything, both QBs are hurt, Flacco may play, he may not.  Who knows what bettors are thinking there.  On the 49ers, I think Vegas is saying they think Kaepernick is going to have success.  Who else on that team is going to account for the 3 TDs theyre currently expected to score?  Mike Davis?  It makes me sick to think Im risking any part of my bankroll on someone as bad at football as Colin Kaepernick, but I am this week.  Naked Kaepernick is a thing I am doing this week.  I am not happy.  I am not proud.  I am just going to close my eyes and hope for the best.

 
NixonMask said:
Theres no reason to think that Vegas doesnt like NE to win, but I am pretty confident they think the game will be alot closer than the public does.  If anything that helps Brady though.  If Pittsburgh can keep it close then he will have an incentive to keep racking up yards.

On the others, I think Vegas like Jacksonville to win.  Theyre letting almost all their action for that game come in on Oakland and they just arent budging with that line.  That means more action is probably going to come in on Oakland, and apparently they are fine with that.  The Jets game could mean anything, both QBs are hurt, Flacco may play, he may not.  Who knows what bettors are thinking there.  On the 49ers, I think Vegas is saying they think Kaepernick is going to have success.  Who else on that team is going to account for the 3 TDs theyre currently expected to score?  Mike Davis?  It makes me sick to think Im risking any part of my bankroll on someone as bad at football as Colin Kaepernick, but I am this week.  Naked Kaepernick is a thing I am doing this week.  I am not happy.  I am not proud.  I am just going to close my eyes and hope for the best.
Click to expand...
I threw in a SF/TB game stack on DK with Kaep and Draughn in there.  :bag:

 
sooted72 said:
and for those of you who think im a psycho there actually is a precedent here for me...

it was last year and the player was scott chandler.  it was eerily similar to doyle this week.  the prior week gronk had gotten hurt early on and chandler had gotten tons of targets in the 2nd half and had a huge game.  the following week gronk was out and everyone was all on chandler.  i was like no that guy sucks dont play him and had 0 exposure.  so brady hardly looks at him all game.  somehow philly scores like 5 tds in a row to start blasting the patriots out of nowhere.  patriots are desperately trying to make a 4th qtr comeback and chandler scores a meaningless td with like 3 minutes left in the game.  i shudder when i think about how much that td cost me...
Click to expand...
I feel the same way about Doyle.  I dont think he is a good play in cash or GPP because I dont think he will have the volume, and even if he does put up a 3/30/1 line thats still not quite value for a GPP.  I fully expect him to score some meaningless garbage time TD to bail out everyone who rostered him though.

Personally almost all my TE action this week is split between Gronkowski and Davis.  Im either paying all the way up or punting all the way down.  I dont like Davis either, but he ran alot of routes last week.  I expect him to get 5-7 targets this week.  And against that defense I think that translates to as good a chance as anyone that he scores a TD.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
NixonMask said:
I feel the same way about Doyle.  I dont think he is a good play in cash or GPP because I dont think he will have the volume, and even if he does put up a 3/30/1 line thats still not quite value for a GPP.  I fully expect him to score some meaningless garbage time TD to bail out everyone who rostered him though.

Personally almost all my TE action this week is split between Gronkowski and Davis.  Im either paying all the way up or punting all the way down.  I dont like Davis either, but he ran alot of routes last week.  I expect him to get 5-7 targets this week.  And against that defense I think that translates to as good a chance as anyone that he scores a TD.
Click to expand...
Just to pick your brain some more, you said in this post that Doyle will score a garbage TD, and then go on to say Davis will score a TD.   So do you expect Doyle's line to be 2-10-1, and Davis to be more 4-40-1 or something? 

I am not sold on Doyle 100% but aren't Dorsett and Moncrief hurt? Like Barnidge this week, I am just not sure who else they have to throw to this week. 

 
sooted72 said:
youre better than that.
Click to expand...
Lol.  I'm not so sure that's true.

ETA:  It was a $1 joke one, and I tried to see if I could even roster something that had 4 stud WRs.  I put in Julio, Aj, Evans, T.Y., and tried to fill in the rest.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The first rule of DFS is don't roster players that are bad at football.  Players need opportunity to score points in DFS, but if theyre not any good then it doesnt matter how much opportunity they have.  They still suck.  And my problem with Doyle is I don't think he is very good.  He will get some looks, but he has no ability to create anything other than what the defense is giving him.  I have no doubt he will get about the same amount of targets as Davis this week.  His floor is 1x, but unless he gets that garbage TD I think thats about his ceiling too.

Davis on the other hand is mediocre at football, he has shown talent in the past, but he is old.  Old is definitely a problem in football, but its not as big a concern as being bad at football is.  He is going to see roughly the same number of targets as Doyle I expect, but he is going to run alot more routes so the targets he does see will have a far greater opportunity to translate into production.  The opposing defenses are also relevant.  Tennessee is pretty good against tight ends, Detroit this year is a TD waiting to happen.

 
Yeah, I hear you.  There is a reason hes min priced.  He could absolutely put up the same 3/35 line I am concerned Doyle gets.  I just think he has a similar floor with a significantly higher ceiling.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

BassNBrew
Fanduel Week 7
Replies
0
Views
347
BassNBrew
BassNBrew
Steeler
Week 2 DFS idea
Replies
6
Views
475
SeniorVBDStudent
SeniorVBDStudent
SeniorVBDStudent
Week 1 Musings...Fanduel
Replies
8
Views
505
BassNBrew
BassNBrew

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top