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@hooter311thanks to some of your suggestions I’ve done quite well on crypto/btc related stocks this year.  That said, I’m trying to simplify my portfolio and I’d like to reduce my list by a couple.  Thoughts on which ones you hold vs let go? The main ones I have are GBTC, RIOT, HBVTF, and SI.  Some lesser known crypto/sympathy plays that I have are SINO, EQOS, and NXTD.  

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7 hours ago, Lacey said:

@hooter311thanks to some of your suggestions I’ve done quite well on crypto/btc related stocks this year.  That said, I’m trying to simplify my portfolio and I’d like to reduce my list by a couple.  Thoughts on which ones you hold vs let go? The main ones I have are GBTC, RIOT, HBVTF, and SI.  Some lesser known crypto/sympathy plays that I have are SINO, EQOS, and NXTD.  

Microstrategy just raised money to take another billion worth of bitcoin off the market next week.  I think that will be the catalyst that takes us to 63k, which was the imaginary number I circled for the goal of this bull run.

At that point I think I'll be satisfied and I'll diversify about 65% of my portfolio to something else.  Probably cut all my btc mining stocks and have my portfolio be about 25% gbtc and 10% MSTR.  

SI is a great long term play and I think once this cycle over, ethereum is gonna be the rage for the next couple years until the next halvening.

 

I need to do some research on those last 3, none of those are currently on my radar.  Thank you for mentioning them.

 

Liquidating in 2017 was one of the most agonizing financial decisions of my life.  You would think getting rich would be more fun....

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On 2/14/2021 at 5:22 PM, stbugs said:

This is the type of stuff that will end badly:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2021/02/14/doge-is-underestimated-elon-musks-fav-bitcoin-rival-dogecoin-is-getting-a-surprise-upgrade/amp/

So, Jake Paul is pimping something that was created as a joke and has had no one working on it for a couple years. The developers are starting to jump back in to work primarily on security.

Now that these coins are big again, there will be way more people working to find flaws and something like Dogecoin would seem to be a perfect thing. What if there is a security flaw? Do you really think the 1 or 2 guys who haven’t touched it in years will be able to do anything about it?

I already bought into BTC and will likely add more but the alt coins are rife for issues and blowing up.

The guy that invented dogecoin spent about 4 hours on the project creating it and he liquidated his holdings a few years ago for under 10,000.

 

One address holds roughly 25% of the dogecoin supply.

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32 minutes ago, hooter311 said:

Microstrategy just raised money to take another billion worth of bitcoin off the market next week.  I think that will be the catalyst that takes us to 63k, which was the imaginary number I circled for the goal of this bull run.

At that point I think I'll be satisfied and I'll diversify about 65% of my portfolio to something else.  Probably cut all my btc mining stocks and have my portfolio be about 25% gbtc and 10% MSTR.  

SI is a great long term play and I think once this cycle over, ethereum is gonna be the rage for the next couple years until the next halvening.

 

I need to do some research on those last 3, none of those are currently on my radar.  Thank you for mentioning them.

 

Liquidating in 2017 was one of the most agonizing financial decisions of my life.  You would think getting rich would be more fun....

What’s your POV on ETH’s high fees, clogged network and slow transition to ETH 2.0?

I have ETH too, but I worry they’re leaving a door open.  If there is one crypto I regret not getting into, it’s DOT.  They along with ADA, seem to be reaping benefits from some of the issues ETH is experiencing.

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13 minutes ago, TheDirtyWord said:

What’s your POV on ETH’s high fees, clogged network and slow transition to ETH 2.0?

I have ETH too, but I worry they’re leaving a door open.  If there is one crypto I regret not getting into, it’s DOT.  They along with ADA, seem to be reaping benefits from some of the issues ETH is experiencing.

Eth is going to be forced to adopt eip-1559 which would involve ethereum turning "combustible" and billions worth of ETH will be "burned" every year to bring down current gas fees.

 

If/when this happens I think ethereum will jump to the 5-20k trading range.

At the moment you are right, it's too expensive to even do anything with.

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46 minutes ago, hooter311 said:

Eth is going to be forced to adopt eip-1559 which would involve ethereum turning "combustible" and billions worth of ETH will be "burned" every year to bring down current gas fees.

 

If/when this happens I think ethereum will jump to the 5-20k trading range.

At the moment you are right, it's too expensive to even do anything with.

What’s preventing it from doing that now?

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My brother is about to retire from this stuff.  He's gone from $30K in the game four years ago to a few million.  Happy for him.  He told us.   I bought in a couple of years ago, but only enough to be in the game.  A BTC, a bunch of ETH and a good bit of LINK.  One would think it's been nice to watch it quintuple, but all I have is regret for not putting a lot more in.   Meanwhile what I put in IBM and MSFT have really taken off  😠

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24 minutes ago, TheDirtyWord said:

What’s preventing it from doing that now?

They have to at least wait until the next fork which I believe is in July.

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7 hours ago, hooter311 said:

Microstrategy just raised money to take another billion worth of bitcoin off the market next week.  I think that will be the catalyst that takes us to 63k, which was the imaginary number I circled for the goal of this bull run.

At that point I think I'll be satisfied and I'll diversify about 65% of my portfolio to something else.  Probably cut all my btc mining stocks and have my portfolio be about 25% gbtc and 10% MSTR.  

SI is a great long term play and I think once this cycle over, ethereum is gonna be the rage for the next couple years until the next halvening.

 

I need to do some research on those last 3, none of those are currently on my radar.  Thank you for mentioning them.

 

Liquidating in 2017 was one of the most agonizing financial decisions of my life.  You would think getting rich would be more fun....

Thanks for the response.  Do you think the miners have long term value or where does this end for them once a lot of the coins have been mined?  Do they switch to other coins, do they make money in crypto trading or otherwise?

For Ethereum, does HVBTF give you the right exposure (I believe it's ETH and BTC) or would you recommend something else?

 

The other three are crypto/sympathy plays and they're really on the list thinking they could benefit from the run up as sympathy plays.  Anything with crypto headlines just seems to go the last couple weeks.  I can't imagine they'd be long holds for me:

NXTD - Among others things looks like it has a smart wallet that can hold crypto - https://nxtid.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/nxt-id-accept-bitcoin-wocket-wallet-orders

SINO - shipping company getting into the BTC mining game - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sino-global-announces-loi-acquire-133000080.html

EQOS - Launching a crypto trading platform it seems - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/diginex-launches-front-back-digital-100000918.html

 

Once this current run slows down (maybe that's the $63k number), it sounds like you might recommend cashing out of things like RIOT and the 3 lesser known sympathy plays and keeping a core holding of GBTC, SI, and HVBTF/some other ETH miner?

 

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On 2/14/2021 at 11:46 AM, TheDirtyWord said:

Ultimately, there is probably a lot of work to be done in this country (and in reality globally) to come to policy that’s more thought out not just related to tax implications, but how will digitally native assets overall get regulated.  The sense I get is that what exists today was cobbled together to ‘close loopholes’ of taxation exclusion.

Prior to 2020, BTC’s highest market cap was $400B (when total eventual supply is used)...and there were times in 2020 where it dipped as low as $80B.  So a fully fleshed out US government and taxation code and policy likely wasn’t high on the list of priorities to address.  And let’s be fair, the narrative of what BTC actually is has changed dramatically over the last 24 months as well.  It’s utility as a ‘currency’ has seemingly been usurped by it’s newer and generally more accepted narrative as Digital Gold.

The appointment of Gary Gensler as SEC Chief I think is a good development as he’s actually taught a crypto course at MIT.  So he’s knowledgeable about the space and likely has a balanced view of how to approach this market space.  I imagine the next 4 years will see a lot of movement of this front as BTC’s price ascends to the six-figures and cryptos status as a viable asset class gains stature.

I’m actually very curious about the impact Gensler could have on crypto.

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So what's the story with Ethereum 2.0?  Coinbase has this staking thing they are adding people to a waitlist for, which looks to be the "opportunity" to buy in and get 7.5% interest, but you can't sell it for a period of time.  And it may not even be a thing for a few years?  An opportunity here or stay far away?

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9 hours ago, Brunell4MVP said:

My brother is about to retire from this stuff.  He's gone from $30K in the game four years ago to a few million.  Happy for him.  He told us.   I bought in a couple of years ago, but only enough to be in the game.  A BTC, a bunch of ETH and a good bit of LINK.  One would think it's been nice to watch it quintuple, but all I have is regret for not putting a lot more in.   Meanwhile what I put in IBM and MSFT have really taken off  😠

I still really like LINK. 

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3 hours ago, SFBayDuck said:

So what's the story with Ethereum 2.0?  Coinbase has this staking thing they are adding people to a waitlist for, which looks to be the "opportunity" to buy in and get 7.5% interest, but you can't sell it for a period of time.  And it may not even be a thing for a few years?  An opportunity here or stay far away?

Solid opportunity.

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3 hours ago, ConstruxBoy said:

I still really like LINK. 

I like it in theory but 125 wallet addresses currently control 80% of LINK.  That has black swan written all over it.

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The next 60 days should finally bring about the "bitcoin supply crunch"

 

Microstrategy is about to release a bit that will be purchasing 1.06 billion in btc next week at a rate of 2k per second.

 

The sellers are drying up...

 

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5 minutes ago, hooter311 said:

The next 60 days should finally bring about the "bitcoin supply crunch"

 

Microstrategy is about to release a bit that will be purchasing 1.06 billion in btc next week at a rate of 2k per second.

 

The sellers are drying up...

 

What happens to the price the more corporations but bitcoin?

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10 minutes ago, cubd8 said:

What happens to the price the more corporations but bitcoin?

Supply/demand

 

These corporations aren't buying them to flip them in a month or two, they're buying them because they can't afford to be holding their treasuries entirely in cash.

Grayscale's trust alone buys double the btc that are mined each month.

 

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One of the new canadian bitcoin ETFs also just bought 6000 btc on Friday.

 

Massive volume next week, a ton of support at 48k and very little resistance. 

Buckle up buttercups!

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, hooter311 said:

The next 60 days should finally bring about the "bitcoin supply crunch"

 

Microstrategy is about to release a bit that will be purchasing 1.06 billion in btc next week at a rate of 2k per second.

 

The sellers are drying up...

 

Already here.  And it’s going to get worse over the next few weeks.

 

Wall Street being very quiet about doing any actual buying..... but it’s all everyone is talking about and the price has gone straight up.

all it’s going to take is one more Fortune 500 company to say they bought a half billion and its to the moon.  My bet is Oracle but MGM and Disney were both noticeable at the micro strategy conference.   If Mickey Mouse buys in its laser eyes to 100K time.

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Im Going to sound like a BTC Twitter troll I used to hate.  But these two facts have stuck with me the past few weeks.

There are 44 Million “millionaires” world wide.  There are 18.6M BTC in circulation (and as many as ~2M+ have been lost or otherwise discarded).  If/when this gets worldwide acceptance and everyone needs to own some BTC - remove central banks and governments and Wall Street companies AND us poor slobs and simply leave the 44M Millionaires...... there is only enough BTC for them to have .36 BTC.  Figure ~half of BTC will go to Wall Street, Governments and regular folks and that number quickly drops to .180
 

the average amount of BTC per person in the world is .0024 or $135 worth at $56K a coin and 7.7B people.

So I draw from the above the following.

even if you are 90% sure this whole thing is crazy and will turn tulip bulb any minute this thing as gone far enough that it’s time at a min to go get your families .0024.  If you a family of four dust off the wallet and go get $600 worth.

If you more of a believer then the average person and are ready to get your part of BTC you should at the minimum be running out to the market to get .2 at the minimum if not .4.  Anything above that is obviously better but that’s the baseline you should be shooting for.

the most bullish of cases calls for people to stop talking about owning a BTC in a few years because that will be unrealistic except For the uber rich.  The narrative will change to Satoshi.  So if it seems that running out and getting .2 BTC isn’t a big deal and that it’s not enough to make a difference it will when .2 BTC becomes 20M satoshi and you can buy a car with it, or less.  Or .0005 will get you plane tickets to Rome.  Or .000000005 gets you a steak dinner 

 

Edited by The Ref
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44 minutes ago, The Ref said:

Already here.  And it’s going to get worse over the next few weeks.

 

Wall Street being very quiet about doing any actual buying..... but it’s all everyone is talking about and the price has gone straight up.

all it’s going to take is one more Fortune 500 company to say they bought a half billion and its to the moon.  My bet is Oracle but MGM and Disney were both noticeable at the micro strategy conference.   If Mickey Mouse buys in its laser eyes to 100K time.

Microstrategy went over how to buy btc in small increments at a fast rate on the exchanges as to not draw attention to themselves and affect price.  

It will be like the Tesla situation and the coins will already be in their pocket before the public finds out.

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3 minutes ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

Man, this is hard to assess the risk, for me. I have some cash on hand I could put more into.  (I currently have <$1K BTC acquired). I don't know what to do here. Put 50% of it in? All of it? None of it? Ugh. Life is hard. :lol: 

For reasons I state above if you are holding less than .2 coin I wouldn’t mess around with timing.  This thing runs away you will never own any.

.2 at “any cost”.  You want to play around with timing after that at least you got a min stake

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21 minutes ago, The Ref said:

For reasons I state above if you are holding less than .2 coin I wouldn’t mess around with timing.  This thing runs away you will never own any.

.2 at “any cost”.  You want to play around with timing after that at least you got a min stake

Well, I hear you, and am more on the side of buying in that not, BUT, and this is and has been the hesitancy with this since it's inception, along with all the other cryptocurrencies, it could literally disappear into nothing tomorrow. That is the risk. It just comes down to what you believe and if you are willing to stake a good chunk of your own assets on that belief. Idk. Just one man's semi-informed opinion. 

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On 2/20/2021 at 9:24 AM, Brunell4MVP said:

My brother is about to retire from this stuff.  He's gone from $30K in the game four years ago to a few million.  Happy for him.  He told us.   I bought in a couple of years ago, but only enough to be in the game.  A BTC, a bunch of ETH and a good bit of LINK.  One would think it's been nice to watch it quintuple, but all I have is regret for not putting a lot more in.   Meanwhile what I put in IBM and MSFT have really taken off  😠

What I would tell you is those chances still exist in this space.  Yes, BTC’s days as a 4-digit asset are done,  but there are other opportunities.

To the extent you still talk crypto with him...he may have some ideas on what he’d invest in today; which projects he likes.  If he’s been in that long, I wouldn’t be surprised if his familiarity with the space was elite.

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3 hours ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

Well, I hear you, and am more on the side of buying in that not, BUT, and this is and has been the hesitancy with this since it's inception, along with all the other cryptocurrencies, it could literally disappear into nothing tomorrow. That is the risk. It just comes down to what you believe and if you are willing to stake a good chunk of your own assets on that belief. Idk. Just one man's semi-informed opinion. 

If you’ve ever heard of the Lindy Effect...

The Lindy effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy. Where the Lindy effect applies, mortality rate decreases with time.

There’s a lot of FUD about crypto...but this has been true throughout history related to game changing innovation.  John Rockefeller tried to thwart the adoption of electricity as it threatened demand for oil.  But the longer it survives, the less chance it dies.  It’s network effect feels a bit irreversible.

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10 hours ago, jb1020 said:

This will be a short lived dip.  Buy BTC, Eth and LIte is you can today.  

That quick crash to 48K this morning is going to end up being an epic good entering point.

Edited by The Ref
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16 minutes ago, psychobillies said:

Got some more at 47ish this morning.  Is anyone here concerned about the potential ban of BTC ownership in India?  Are other governments going to follow their lead?  How will it impact crypto going forward?

Bitcoin has dropped so many times in the last 10 years because "China banned it" that it became a joke in the crypto community. It's all noise imo. 

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https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1364324755889917965?s=21

BREAKING: Square just announced they purchased another $170 million worth of bitcoin for their balance sheet.

This brings their total bitcoin exposure to approximately 5% of their cash assets.

 

Edited by urbanhack
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