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Posted (edited)

In the short and medium turn, crypto, and specifically BTC, has taken significant blows to the narratives that's had it running early this year.  The hype that institutions are going to be piling in in droves isn't happening as quickly as some had hoped. Microstrategy and Tesla got things kicked off, but between Tesla stepping back a bit and the recent volatility, I don't see many large, public corporations buying Bitcoin for their treasury reserves. I understand the protection from inflation argument, but what's the difference between buying BTC and buying Apple stock if you're a treasurer at this point in time.  I've been buying crypto with my own business's reserves, but acknowledge that I'm really just investing/gambling and can't be certain the money will be there when I need it.  

Secondly, the narrative that BTC is the apex technology because it's decentralized and secure feels less stable and important.  Binance's smart chain is proving how much users really care about decentralization at the moment.  Also, is it really that decentralized and secure when a power outage in China can send the hash rate (and price) to the basement?  Add to that the perception (doesn't have to be fact, just perception) that BTC is bad for the environment, and I see an opportunity for another blockchain to take BTC's crown.  Michael Saylor's arguments that it's the fastest to a $1T market cap and is more efficient than brick and mortar finance  can be quickly unwound as soon as another technology reaches $1T more quickly (looks at ETH) and with much less power usage.   

That said, longer term, nothing's changed with regard to blockchain's promise for the future and how it will ultimately change the world. It will be as revolutionary as the internet, so we have an opportunity, just as we did in the late 90s and early 2000s, to follow the market closely and invest in the technologies that will dominant the space for years to come.  

Edited by Captain Cranks
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Posted (edited)
On 5/20/2021 at 12:39 PM, Rushmore said:

Obviously you are going to find differing opinions every time significant movement happens, and I'm seeing the same today regarding optimism vs pessimism.    Regarding the latter, I see a "fake out" scenario referenced and compared to a time in 2020 I believe.  I'm a newb and was wondering what your opinions are about this if you don't mind.  

Bulls and bears are going to be omnipresent in this space.  Peter Schiff, a notorious crypto/BTC bear, simply doesn’t pay attention to price.  He thinks the entire space is BS, but certainly, he feels more validated at the moment.

What happened this week was the biggest crypto crash since COVID started and the bottom fell out of everything.  But in such an immature space, March 2020 felt a lot like the end...until the Fed came to the rescue giving BTC the rocket fuel for fiat ‘counter programming’ so to speak.

I’ll tell you a story.  Prior to Elon Musk hosting SNL, I golfed with a buddy of mine.  He’s tiptoed around buying crypto, but hasn’t done it.  One time, I had to tell him Coinbase wasn’t a crypto, but rather a crypto exchange.  But during that round he told me about SHIBA coin.  At the time, I hadn’t heard of it...but knowing the space, I figured it had some correlation/foundation to DOGE.

I wasn’t involved in the crypto space in March 2020...but as I look back on that exchange between us, you start to get a sense for the space.  Weeks/months after I clarified what Coinbase was, he was the one who informed me about SHIBA.  That feels like mania behavior from a word of mouth perspective.  I think a lot of dumb money started piling into crypto not to mention ridiculous leverage. Whereas March 2020 was the result of a global black swan event...what I think we’ve seen over the last week has been the market resetting itself.  In mid-March, BTC dominance was over 60%.  Two months later, it reached below 40% as new entrants into the market started chasing the 20x dream.

In all fairness, back in the August/September 2020 timeframe, BTC was the 20x dream when it was $10K.   Same with ETH.  But at $50-60K...not so much.  But both of those assets have earned their stripes over the years.

My advice to anyone entering into this space is to have at the very least a mid-to-long term time horizon.  You can still venture out on the risk curve, and I wouldn’t even say ‘be careful’.  Educate yourself about the space...there are ALOT of great projects and work being done as the entire ecosystem gets built.  We all want to make money...I’m no different, but embrace the goals/missions of the projects you invest in.

Is the vision clear?  
What is the protocol looking to accomplish?
How are they differentiating themselves?
Are the founders serious people?

As for the price action near term, I don’t think anyone knows what exactly is going to happen.  There may be people who are proven right based on what happens over the coming days/weeks,  but no one bats 1.000.  Focus on the longer term view.  And if anything, after a steep correction like this, it’s certainly a good time to buy.

Edited by TheDirtyWord
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On 5/20/2021 at 6:48 AM, Captain Cranks said:

I think the more likely scenario is you hear or know about XYZ company and put some money in thinking it will grow in value.  "This iphone is a good product. I think Apple stock is going to go up." 

This is why individual investors get crushed by professionals on average.

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Most of what I keep reading regarding BTC is this correction is just transferring coins from weak hands to strong hands, people comparing charts to 2013 and 2017 (where the corrections look almost identical to now followed by big upticks), people holding their bitcoin longer, etc.

While the mood (FUD) is still negative and there have been two or three large corrections in the last few days/weeks, most that I reading are still expecting this to lift off once this consolidation period has finished.

I don't know what to think because it's scary that Elon Musk can move the price up or down by 10% and it derails all of the supposed positive/bullish metrics.

Anyone else bearish or bullish on BTC for the upcoming months?

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2 hours ago, cubd8 said:

 

Anyone else bearish or bullish on BTC for the upcoming months?

bearish short term.  BTC bottom will be when most of the garbage/scam coins lose all their 2021 bizarre gains.  

Unfortunately the sector moves together and BTC will take collateral damage when the trash gets taken out.  

The valuations of 99% of these coins is ridiculous.  

I do like BTC longterm. 

 

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8 hours ago, cubd8 said:

Anyone else bearish or bullish on BTC for the upcoming months?

Bearish short term (don't think washout is over).  Bullish medium term (we'll eventually rebound after the selling is done).  Neutral longer term.  BTC is an older technology, relatively speaking, and I don't concede that it will replace gold as a store of value simply because it was first to market or has the highest market cap.  We're already seeing how quickly perception can be changed ("BTC is bad for the environment?!?!  Let's look at alternatives!) and how quickly people can transfer from one ecosystem to another (ETH to Binance smart contracts platform).  I'm still a BTC investor, but it's a much smaller percentage of my portfolio than a lot of people in crypto recommend.     

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i am an absolute novice, so pls bear with my stupidity/naiivity... 

2-3 weeks ago i was set on getting in on ETH and was going to put a significant amount into it... Im in Canada, so buying is a little more confusing and apps like wealthsimple, which friends use and reccommended, only "offer" BTC and ETH...

anyways... 2-3 weeks later, and Im looking at the ETH price and looking at my wife and dog, and thinking "they'd both be gone if i did what i was going to"

this stuff is scary (in a good and bad way)

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3 hours ago, Captain Cranks said:

Bearish short term (don't think washout is over).  Bullish medium term (we'll eventually rebound after the selling is done).  Neutral longer term.  BTC is an older technology, relatively speaking, and I don't concede that it will replace gold as a store of value simply because it was first to market or has the highest market cap.  We're already seeing how quickly perception can be changed ("BTC is bad for the environment?!?!  Let's look at alternatives!) and how quickly people can transfer from one ecosystem to another (ETH to Binance smart contracts platform).  I'm still a BTC investor, but it's a much smaller percentage of my portfolio than a lot of people in crypto recommend.     

Mildly bearish short-term. Sideways/unknown for... who knows how long. Rocket ship after. Btc isn't very interesting at this point. It's potential increase is limited in comparison to much more sophisticated and useful projects. Will it double to 60-70ish this year? Yeah, probably, depends on the fud. If it does will a couple dozen big-cap and mid-cap alts see 5x-10x or more? Yup.

I've been following mainstream reporting and social media reaction to this triple fud bear.

The US getting stricter on tax reporting fud? Not much traction in regards to fear and loathing. In fact, impressive balance calling it a good thing. I think it is. 

China cracking down on miners? Old news in a sense that the space has absorbed very similar before. It has some traction driving some fear. But not much. Pretty quiet story.

Elon flipping on btc because he just discovered the massive energy requirements. Yeah, the headlines, tweets, facebook, etc., just over the top. Environmentalists are prone to freak outs. Bad horrible wildly misinformed or uninformed opinions are viral and growing. Negative - over the top - fake news is easy to find with a simple google on topic. Fearmongering, and as our friend George would say - manipulation abounds. It may gain more and more traction as the accumulators have to love this. It will eventually settle down as debates play out both ways, but I think the "evironmental destruction of evil crypto" opinion is out of the bag and not getting back in. It's sort of like hating gmos when they can do so much good. The uneducated win and big business takes their side to sell to them at premiums. We can be angry with Elon for just learning about this, or we can laugh at how ignorant the richest man in the world is. Eventually energy consumption issues were going mainstream. We're getting it out of the way this year. hodl.

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12 hours ago, cubd8 said:

Most of what I keep reading regarding BTC is this correction is just transferring coins from weak hands to strong hands, people comparing charts to 2013 and 2017 (where the corrections look almost identical to now followed by big upticks), people holding their bitcoin longer, etc.

While the mood (FUD) is still negative and there have been two or three large corrections in the last few days/weeks, most that I reading are still expecting this to lift off once this consolidation period has finished.

I don't know what to think because it's scary that Elon Musk can move the price up or down by 10% and it derails all of the supposed positive/bullish metrics.

Anyone else bearish or bullish on BTC for the upcoming months?

From what I’ve been reading...a significant factor to this downturn has been the unwinding of unhealthy leverage in this space.  The Musk comments may have been a trigger...but BTC isn’t down in the $30K range because of them.  If you think about BTC/ETH, etc...if you continue to hear a cacophony of $100-150K BTC in 2021 predictions, and you’ve seen the price 5-6x, you feel ‘safe’ about borrowing to add to your position.  While it’s still possible we see a recovery where BTC (and others) resumes its upward trajectory, it’s got to be done in a healthy manner, which IMO means measured candles, not huge wicks.  Day-by-day, brick-by-brick.  That profile existed much more in 2020 than this year.

In a sentiment-based market though, we’re going to have to settle down.  A lot of panic out there.  Anyone looking to buy now (not trade) is trying to catch a falling knife as the saying goes.  So while we might be seeing a flushing of ‘weak hands’...a lot of people piled into this space over the last 3-4 months, not sure there are going to be a lot of new buyers.  Those that did come recently, likely are gone for a good bit.  Hence the downward pressure.  At some point, it’ll abate, but right now...it’s a guessing game both in terms of price and time.

One thing I’ll say about BTC.  It’s different than every other crypto.  Why? Because it was the only crypto for 6 years.  It survived on its own.  Compared to other projects, is the ‘tech’ at the same level.  No.  But it has the best ability to survive in this space.  It’s been proven since 2009.  Look at the Bitcoin dominance chart.  In times like these, it’s the alts that get nuked harder.  May 17, BTC.D was 41...5 days later, it’s up to 48.

I’d recommend going back to 2017/2018 and read the posts in this thread.  It’ll provide you an interesting perspective to how people reacted to the highs/lows.  The questions they were asking, the parts of the market they were looking at, the overall mood.  December 2017 there were 20 pages of posts (at least as far as my page layout is constructed).  Then nothing.  There was a 5 month gap between January and July 2018 when the price of BTC dropped from $16K to $6K where no one posted in this thread.

My overall thesis for this space hasn’t changed.  But I’ll be welcoming more methodical price action even on the upside once everything calms down.

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Posted (edited)

For as little as I know, and it is only a little...now seems like a great time to buy ETH if you have some dollars laying around.

I mean, it's not like it's going away.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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39 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

For as little as I know, and it is only a little...now seems like a great time to buy ETH if you have some dollars laying around.

I mean, it's not like it's going away.

I've been buying, but I've also been buying other L1 platform tokens like ADA, DOT, SOL, ATOM, and BNB.  It's anyone's guess who will dominate the space in a couple years and I'm not convinced ETH's name should be considered any more likely than the others I just mentioned.  I think diversification is key.

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1 hour ago, TheDirtyWord said:

From what I’ve been reading...a significant factor to this downturn has been the unwinding of unhealthy leverage in this space.  The Musk comments may have been a trigger...but BTC isn’t down in the $30K range because of them.  If you think about BTC/ETH, etc...if you continue to hear a cacophony of $100-150K BTC in 2021 predictions, and you’ve seen the price 5-6x, you feel ‘safe’ about borrowing to add to your position.  While it’s still possible we see a recovery where BTC (and others) resumes its upward trajectory, it’s got to be done in a healthy manner, which IMO means measured candles, not huge wicks.  Day-by-day, brick-by-brick.  That profile existed much more in 2020 than this year.

In a sentiment-based market though, we’re going to have to settle down.  A lot of panic out there.  Anyone looking to buy now (not trade) is trying to catch a falling knife as the saying goes.  So while we might be seeing a flushing of ‘weak hands’...a lot of people piled into this space over the last 3-4 months, not sure there are going to be a lot of new buyers.  Those that did come recently, likely are gone for a good bit.  Hence the downward pressure.  At some point, it’ll abate, but right now...it’s a guessing game both in terms of price and time.

One thing I’ll say about BTC.  It’s different than every other crypto.  Why? Because it was the only crypto for 6 years.  It survived on its own.  Compared to other projects, is the ‘tech’ at the same level.  No.  But it has the best ability to survive in this space.  It’s been proven since 2009.  Look at the Bitcoin dominance chart.  In times like these, it’s the alts that get nuked harder.  May 17, BTC.D was 41...5 days later, it’s up to 48.

I’d recommend going back to 2017/2018 and read the posts in this thread.  It’ll provide you an interesting perspective to how people reacted to the highs/lows.  The questions they were asking, the parts of the market they were looking at, the overall mood.  December 2017 there were 20 pages of posts (at least as far as my page layout is constructed).  Then nothing.  There was a 5 month gap between January and July 2018 when the price of BTC dropped from $16K to $6K where no one posted in this thread.

My overall thesis for this space hasn’t changed.  But I’ll be welcoming more methodical price action even on the upside once everything calms down.

I have wondered who will step in for a bounce.  Most retail hands that ran up the price are getting thrashed right now and probably not interested in taking another beating.  Are institutional traders going to do it on their own?  Are the high net worth investors who were clamoring to get in two months ago still demanding their brokers to offer them crypto products?  I'm personally down about $35k on a $90k portfolio and won't be putting much additional money to work at the moment.  I'm not sweating the loss and am coming to terms that lower prices are a good thing, but my risk appetite to put in more has dwindled.  I agree that we need a more measured build in price from here and that may be exactly what we get. 

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56 minutes ago, Captain Cranks said:

I have wondered who will step in for a bounce.  Most retail hands that ran up the price are getting thrashed right now and probably not interested in taking another beating.  Are institutional traders going to do it on their own?  Are the high net worth investors who were clamoring to get in two months ago still demanding their brokers to offer them crypto products? 

Two "expert" guys I follow have reported the biggest in flow in history of stable coins across the exchanges. It's there to buy. Who "they" are is certainly a combination of your thinking. The only thing I have done after converting all my btc, dot, some others to stable coins, is buy Cardano, and cost average it twice. I may be done with btc when I start taking advantage of these sale prices. 

I understand btc is different and isn't included in @TheDirtyWord's four questions:

Quote

Is the vision clear?  
What is the protocol looking to accomplish?
How are they differentiating themselves?
Are the founders serious people?

But I don't love the way btc answers them. Moreso, I do love the way several do. I dunno. I am chill if it goes down more and patient if turns positive. :shrug:

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3 hours ago, Captain Cranks said:

I have wondered who will step in for a bounce.  Most retail hands that ran up the price are getting thrashed right now and probably not interested in taking another beating.  Are institutional traders going to do it on their own?  Are the high net worth investors who were clamoring to get in two months ago still demanding their brokers to offer them crypto products?  I'm personally down about $35k on a $90k portfolio and won't be putting much additional money to work at the moment.  I'm not sweating the loss and am coming to terms that lower prices are a good thing, but my risk appetite to put in more has dwindled.  I agree that we need a more measured build in price from here and that may be exactly what we get. 

First order of business will be price action stabilization.  If BTC/ETH can range for 4-6 weeks, the wounds of this drop will have healed to a certain extent.  Renewed S/R levels cementing will start to bring back retail confidence.  Remember that we’re at price levels we haven’t really seen since February. So while there may not be a lot of buyers...number of sellers has dwindled as well.  Also, if the market has been manipulated via Wycoff Distribution, you can bet institutions have a price point they’ll be piling in at.

I do think we test $30K again, maybe $28K.

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14 hours ago, TheDirtyWord said:

First order of business will be price action stabilization.  If BTC/ETH can range for 4-6 weeks, the wounds of this drop will have healed to a certain extent.  Renewed S/R levels cementing will start to bring back retail confidence.  Remember that we’re at price levels we haven’t really seen since February. So while there may not be a lot of buyers...number of sellers has dwindled as well.  Also, if the market has been manipulated via Wycoff Distribution, you can bet institutions have a price point they’ll be piling in at.

I do think we test $30K again, maybe $28K.

Seeing some nice gains atm - btc 38 and change. Going along with your thinking that leveraged accts are the primary driver, I watched a TA guy layer btc price against max pain on expirations. It's compelling, tracks very closely 60 days out. What it predicts is btc at 50 in less than a week. Then there's some pretty sharp drops. The coming 50 prediction is a huge expiry date. 10s of billions in play. The drops not so big. 

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54 minutes ago, Chaos Commish said:

Seeing some nice gains atm - btc 38 and change. Going along with your thinking that leveraged accts are the primary driver, I watched a TA guy layer btc price against max pain on expirations. It's compelling, tracks very closely 60 days out. What it predicts is btc at 50 in less than a week. Then there's some pretty sharp drops. The coming 50 prediction is a huge expiry date. 10s of billions in play. The drops not so big. 

A run to 50 sure would be sweet.  The daily charts are set up for it with oversold stochastics and plenty of room to retrace the fall without changing the short term bearish structure.  There will be selling pressure from people like me looking to get out flat on positions, so a run that high would be impressive.  If we can get above 42, I think it's an easy trip to 48.   

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Certainly todays bounce is much appreciated.  Novogratz tweeted about the drop from noon Saturday to noon Sunday caused by illiquid conditions that can present themselves on low volume weekends.  At the same time, we're back where we were (BTCwise) on Saturday midday, so my enthusiasm is tempered.  As people digest the China mining news though...feel like there is more optimism that this represents a good thing for BTC overall.  Short term pain though will be experienced as the hash rate 'transitions'...which I feel can lead to some short-term downside volatility.  We'll see.

Higher highs/lows needed in succession to bring more confidence into the market though.  Alts are bouncing hard which has slowed BTC.D.  I'll be a little concerned if this begins to drop again back toward 40%.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/23/2021 at 7:48 AM, Captain Cranks said:

Bearish short term (don't think washout is over).  Bullish medium term (we'll eventually rebound after the selling is done).  Neutral longer term.  BTC is an older technology, relatively speaking, and I don't concede that it will replace gold as a store of value simply because it was first to market or has the highest market cap.  We're already seeing how quickly perception can be changed ("BTC is bad for the environment?!?!  Let's look at alternatives!) and how quickly people can transfer from one ecosystem to another (ETH to Binance smart contracts platform).  I'm still a BTC investor, but it's a much smaller percentage of my portfolio than a lot of people in crypto recommend.     

Updating this for the entire crypto space to say I'm bullish short-term (the selling looks to be over for now and there's value shopping to be had), medium term bearish (I don't think we get a prolonged rally from here and would expect another period of selling before we resume the longer term bull trend), and long term bullish (nothing's changed).

Edited by Captain Cranks
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23 hours ago, Chaos Commish said:

Two "expert" guys I follow have reported the biggest in flow in history of stable coins across the exchanges. It's there to buy. Who "they" are is certainly a combination of your thinking. The only thing I have done after converting all my btc, dot, some others to stable coins, is buy Cardano, and cost average it twice. I may be done with btc when I start taking advantage of these sale prices. 

I understand btc is different and isn't included in @TheDirtyWord's four questions:

But I don't love the way btc answers them. Moreso, I do love the way several do. I dunno. I am chill if it goes down more and patient if turns positive. :shrug:

Could you flesh out "stable coins" and what you did here for a noob?

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1 hour ago, Bobcat10 said:

Could you flesh out "stable coins" and what you did here for a noob?

Stable coins (not all but most) are primarily pegged to the US dollar. Crypto is insanely volatile, so if you need a breather or see a downward trend, it is commonly advised to move into something stable. You can't make gains or losses in a stable coin. Every wallet or exchange will offer a stable coin. They're obvious by their name or their movement (which is nil). 

Coinbase explains.

Another feature is they are "paired" to nearly everything. If you wanted to move your polkadot to iotec, you won't find them paired for a simple swap. So you move the polkadot to your wallet or exhange's stable coin first. Then you can buy buy iotec with the stable coin. 

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1 hour ago, Chaos Commish said:

Stable coins (not all but most) are primarily pegged to the US dollar. Crypto is insanely volatile, so if you need a breather or see a downward trend, it is commonly advised to move into something stable. You can't make gains or losses in a stable coin. Every wallet or exchange will offer a stable coin. They're obvious by their name or their movement (which is nil). 

Coinbase explains.

Another feature is they are "paired" to nearly everything. If you wanted to move your polkadot to iotec, you won't find them paired for a simple swap. So you move the polkadot to your wallet or exhange's stable coin first. Then you can buy buy iotec with the stable coin. 

such as tether?

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On 5/21/2021 at 10:51 PM, tonydead said:

Bloodbath.  

Not in a position to reduce cost basis. Question is - is this the bottom for a while? I'll probably wait until Saturday night or Sunday to see if it gets worse. 

Nailed it!

Except I forgot to check or do anything yesterday.

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1 hour ago, Chaos Commish said:

Stable coins (not all but most) are primarily pegged to the US dollar. Crypto is insanely volatile, so if you need a breather or see a downward trend, it is commonly advised to move into something stable. You can't make gains or losses in a stable coin. Every wallet or exchange will offer a stable coin. They're obvious by their name or their movement (which is nil). 

Coinbase explains.

Another feature is they are "paired" to nearly everything. If you wanted to move your polkadot to iotec, you won't find them paired for a simple swap. So you move the polkadot to your wallet or exhange's stable coin first. Then you can buy buy iotec with the stable coin. 

So would the idea be something like when times are good and BTC is raging at +$60k to transfer some of your holdings into stable coins for the inevitable fall down to $32k then re-invest the stable coins back into BTC for the inevitable rise back up?

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4 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

So would the idea be something like when times are good and BTC is raging at +$60k to transfer some of your holdings into stable coins for the inevitable fall down to $32k then re-invest the stable coins back into BTC for the inevitable rise back up?

Well sure. But tbh, I just got lucky with this crash. Didn't see it coming. I've also been very lucky with alts from Jan. to before the crash. That luck is something I couldn't risk. But still I didn't think "stablecoin" until it fell below 50. And then it was a lukewarm move. At 45 I locked it up (except eth and something i've staked). I had no idea we were going to 30. I just wanted to sleep. It's rising and I am still heavy stablecoins, unsure what's the best way fwd. I was a volatility junkie until the gains were... gotta hodl until i leave california, make room for me vegas... :)

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3 hours ago, Captain Cranks said:

A lot of hourly charts look to have a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern forming which would make for a nice second leg up.  The lack of volume on the green candles worry me though.

You could have wrote that in Chinese for all I understand

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9 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

You could have wrote that in Chinese for all I understand

But when you flip the chart and focus on the ankles, it's clear the kneebend will give some relief to those butt shorted.

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, Chaos Commish said:

Stable coins (not all but most) are primarily pegged to the US dollar. Crypto is insanely volatile, so if you need a breather or see a downward trend, it is commonly advised to move into something stable. You can't make gains or losses in a stable coin. Every wallet or exchange will offer a stable coin. They're obvious by their name or their movement (which is nil). 

Coinbase explains.

Another feature is they are "paired" to nearly everything. If you wanted to move your polkadot to iotec, you won't find them paired for a simple swap. So you move the polkadot to your wallet or exhange's stable coin first. Then you can buy buy iotec with the stable coin. 

Good stuff, thanks.  IOW, this is how some people could "swing" crypto?  I've been wondering how that works compared to traditional stocks.  I imagine there are fees to consider here which is another difference from traditional stocks where just about all trades are at no extra cost.  

Edited by Bobcat10
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3 hours ago, beer 30 said:

You could have wrote that in Chinese for all I understand

TIL the candles are actually Japanese.  
 

there are some good YouTube videos that cover the basics.  the charts are starting to make a lot more sense to me now.  

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What are you all currently using for an android hot wallet? Just playing around now and will eventually getting a cold hardware wallet for more significant investment.  I know many of the trusted sites still recommend Bitcoin Wallet or Mycellium.  Anything better I should look at?  

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Bobcat10 said:

Good stuff, thanks.  IOW, this is how some people could "swing" crypto?  I've been wondering how that works compared to traditional stocks.  I imagine there are fees to consider here which is another difference from traditional stocks where just about all trades are at no extra cost.  

on binance btc to busd with bnb can be no fee. :)

we just crossed 40. interested to see if sellers drive it down, or... i better make some decisions. that btc@50 prediction from options expiring was actually for the 27th. a long day away, and btc didn't track it precisely, so who knows?

to your question Bobcat. Yes exactly, and yes to fees, tether being the notorious one for eating roi from the start (thanks to ether's gas fees). But it's a big topic and tl/dr is the only way to explain. So just know the recommendation cranks and i give, Binance, has a good solution. If you hold some of their bnb, you can activate fee discounts and their native stablecoin, busd, can be no fee. Algorand is a fantastic ecosystem that offers stables with a tiny fee, like .0001. 

 

Edited by Chaos Commish
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12 hours ago, dnurk said:

What are you all currently using for an android hot wallet? Just playing around now and will eventually getting a cold hardware wallet for more significant investment.  I know many of the trusted sites still recommend Bitcoin Wallet or Mycellium.  Anything better I should look at?  

Ugh, no one wants to answer you. I hate being the giver of advices. The two you mention are great if you only want to use bitcoin. They're both working to make btc an efficient payment system. So if you want to spend btc at home depot, these are good. that's the last thing I want. Hodl don't spend. And please give me access to a long long list of assets, not just bitcoin.

I'm not sure what you mean by trusted sites. The usual suspects, I found, are not to be trusted much on this topic. Seems they just cobble together a random list of 5 to 10 popular wallets and rank them with limited thought and rationale. Sites not known for reviews, but with long histories in the crypto do better. Thing is there's over 100 really good wallets you can use successfully. I have downloaded about 50 just to play with them. My form of video game addiction in 2020.

So it depends on what you want the wallet to do. Which is?

I want it to work on android and desktop. Not having desktop available is a non-starter for me. I prefer it to be non-custodial, but I use a custodial wallet for family. There's several. They have some advantages. They use cold storage (ledger technology usually). They don't require complex keys, just a 4 digit pin. Mine offers free transactions within the wallet and with other FreeWallet users. It's so simple my severely tech-challenged 67 yr old doofus sister has no issues. It's my 22yr olds bday today and she's getting doge fee free. I don't need a qcode or long address from her. Just her username and it is instant. She'll be giddy. FreeWallet supports 37 coins and 552 tokens. Pretty cool. I'm sure there's better custodial wallets.

I want it to have simple access to defi exchanges. FreeWallet doesn't, but ten days or so ago when DaRaiders asked best way for him to start. CaptainCranks recommended Binance. I agreed based on lowest fiat to crypto entry fees and suggested downloading and connecting their native TrustWallet. It's excellent on my phone, but I need to use a VM like Blue Stacks to run it on pc. It holds most of my crypto, and I'll repeat - Binance w/Trust Wallet. It's the best start and I base that on low fees. I'm frugal like that. Coinbase and their wallet called Wallet, may be as good or better, but ooof the fees.

Finally (ha, the insomnia made me do this), my two favorite wallets are Atomic Wallet (great on android and windows) and Math Wallet (android and chrome plug-in). They do everything I want. They are also on the short list in the sidebar at Binance for quick supported connecting. 

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Chaos Commish said:

we just crossed 40. interested to see if sellers drive it down, or... i better make some decisions. that btc@50 prediction from options expiring was actually for the 27th. a long day away, and btc didn't track it precisely, so who knows?

I expect another tug of war around 42K and ETH around 2900.  We still have a long way to go to return to a bullish structure and there will be a lot of people on the offer to get out flat.  ADA and MATIC are in good positions with less overhead resistance to drive through.  

Edited by Captain Cranks
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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Captain Cranks said:

I expect another tug of war around 42K and ETH around 1950.  We still have a long way to go to return to a bullish structure and there will be a lot of people on the offer to get out flat.   

did you mean eth at 2950?

I am holding steady with my investments fwiw at the moment although I will be adding ETH when I have some cash coming to me next month

I do own two alts  - Theta and SOL; I am curious as to if this group has any opinion on either one of those. 

Edited by Angry Beavers
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Just now, Angry Beavers said:

did you mean eth at 2950?

I am holding steady with my investments fwiw at the moment although I will be adding ETH when I have some cash coming to me next month

Yeah...just fixed that.  Good catch.  I moved it down to 2900 too.

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24 minutes ago, Angry Beavers said:

I do own two alts  - Theta and SOL; I am curious as to if this group has any opinion on either one of those. 

I like both projects.  THETA has a great use case (decentralized video sharing) and SOL is a great L1 project with solid financial backing. 

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37 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

Moved all my LTC into LINK. 

LTC is one of those I've been holding, but I got real tempted to move on when it hit $400+.  I think Link is looking really good.  It'll be at $65 about the time BTC gets back in the $55+ range. 

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1 hour ago, jb1020 said:

LTC is one of those I've been holding, but I got real tempted to move on when it hit $400+.  I think Link is looking really good.  It'll be at $65 about the time BTC gets back in the $55+ range. 

Yeah, my view/understanding was that LTC was sort of a lesser BTC. LINK seems like the glue that holds whatever blockchain system together. 

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Other than ADA and MATIC, I'm not seeing a ton of conviction in this reversal.  Volume just isn't stout on the green candles.  I hope we keep grinding up, but continue to worry that this is nothing more than a dead cat bounce.  

I started selling stuff I'm already 2-3X on from Sunday so I have a little ammo in case things fall again.  

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