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***Official 2016 Election Day Thread, November 8*** (1 Viewer)

There's some guy responding to everything Obama is saying: 

Tell it Barack! 

That's right! 

Come on now! 

Truth! 

It's awesome. 

 
Hillary back up to 70.8% on 538, but that's despite the site showing Hillary leading in every battleground state besides Ohio.  C'mon, Nate. 

 
cstu said:
Hillary back up to 70.8% on 538, but that's despite the site showing Hillary leading in every battleground state besides Ohio.  C'mon, Nate. 
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Silver has been overly cautious in his odds/projections and refuses to take early voting into his calculations, which is why he is at a variance with other pollsters in Nevada and Florida.

In all fairness 538 nailed it in 2008 and 2012, but his model seems to lack flexibility to change with the 2016 general election. We will see tomorrow if he gets the last laugh, once again, on his critics.

 
:mellow:  

Who has more than 4 grandparents?

Ann CoulterVerified account ‏@AnnCoulter 38m38 minutes ago

If only people with at least 4 grandparents born in America were voting,

Trump would win in a 50-state landslide.
 
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Liz Kreutz ‏@ABCLiz 2h2 hours ago

Campaign, per fire marshall, says 33k people attended Clinton's Philly rally

& that "several thousand" people watched outside perimeter
 
In my morning prayer I asked God to some how remove this upcoming self induced infliction from our country.

 
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 5m5 minutes ago

Our final Senate forecast is out too! And welp, we've never had this happen before but the topline is too close to call.

Democrats are 50.7% "favorites" in our polls-plus model, and Republicans are 50.3% "favorites" in polls-only. NH differs between the two.

Conditional probabilities are key, though. Democratic senate odds are >50% if Clinton wins at the top of the ticket. Same for Trump/GOP
 
Scoresman said:
It's terrible.  I hate when forum pissfights result in two official threads like this.  
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:lol:   Hardly a forum pissfight.  These are two different threads. Per the title, capella's is a live blog, which he started after this one, because he said wanted "a fun thread title with constant updates that #### all over trump"  This is more the standard news, discussion and opinion related election day thread, exactly like we had in 2008 and 2012 and the thread title is not going to be constantly changed reflecting commentary by the OP.

In any event I think this forum can cope with two election day related threads, particularly on a event that only happens every four years.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
Ha. Active hacker and Russian agitprop tweeter. Yeah when Hillary is president he won't be coming home tomorrow or any day.
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Which is unfortunate and something I disagree with Hillary on (contrary to claims that I blindly support all of her views). Hillary is wrong that the whistleblower laws would have protected Snowden, he would be sitting in a cell for years if he had stayed and will have the same fate if he returns if Hillary is president.

 
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squistion said:
Which is unfortunate and something I disagree with Hillary on (contrary to claims that I blindly support all of her views). Hillary is wrong that the whistleblower laws would have protected Snowden, he would be sitting in a cell for years if he had stayed and will have the same fate if he returns if Hillary is president.
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:shrug: Absolutely. Kind of hard to argue the WL/Russian connection AND support Snowden though.

 
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 20m20 minutes ago

Here's the summation of our case: why our model shows more uncertainty, and why Clinton will probably win anyway.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/

1) 3-ish point polling errors are pretty common. Clinton's lead is 3-4 points in the public polling consensus (last few days helped a bit).

2) Undecideds are MUCH higher than normal. So risk of a polling error -- in either direction -- is higher than usual.

3) Basically, these 3 cases are equally likely

a—Solid Clinton win

b—Epic Clinton blowout

c—Close call, Trump *probably* wins Elect. Coll.
 
I traded my Hillary vote with a buddy in Florida who wants to vote for Jill.  Hillary will win R.I. in a landslide, so I can afford to vote Jill.

 
Drove by my polling place on my way to drop my son off at school. I've never seen a line outside the building before - there was a rather large line outside the building today. I'm voting after work, hopefully things clear up by then. This is in Los Angeles county by the way.

 
Gr00vus said:
Drove by my polling place on my way to drop my son off at school. I've never seen a line outside the building before - there was a rather large line outside the building today. I'm voting after work, hopefully things clear up by then. This is in Los Angeles county by the way.
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My wife went to vote before she went to work.. She said the line was longer then she had ever seen it also so she is going to try again after work.

I went just before 10am and only had one person in front of me and that was only because I held the door open for her .. Advantages of working from home and living outside city limits :)

 
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Gr00vus said:
Drove by my polling place on my way to drop my son off at school. I've never seen a line outside the building before - there was a rather large line outside the building today. I'm voting after work, hopefully things clear up by then. This is in Los Angeles county by the way.
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I am in LA County too, but voted by absentee ballot for the first time this year as I missed the 2012 election due to a scheduling conflict. Pretty easy way to go, only downside is that I didn't understand one of the propositions clearly and would change my vote now - however I will probably go this route again in future elections.

 
http://www.ajc.com/news/local/georgia-mayor-creates-firestorm-with-election-day-post/f2z0F16LdR3sEZW1prSSqM/

Georgia mayor creates firestorm with Election Day post

A metro Atlanta mayor got a quick lesson in social media exposure on Tuesday.

As voters across Georgia went to the polls, Jefferson Riley posted this on his personal Facebook page, which identifies him as the mayor of the Newton County city of Mansfield:
“Remember the voting days: Republicans vote on Tuesday, 11/8 and Democrats vote on Wednesday, 11/9.”
He said it was a joke. Others thought it was out of line.

“Sorry,” Nancy Bush wrote in a Twitter post. “May have been meant as a joke but a stupid and irresponsible one.”

Riley deleted the post, but the exposure — and the screenshots — remained.



On social media, some slammed Riley while others defended him.


“A Georgia mayor giving out incorrect voting info without a disclaimer,” Twitter user @onestarr23 wrote. “Wooooow.”

Riley said he wasn’t trying to be ugly.


“People take things so seriously,” he told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “You can’t joke about anything anymore — especially on social media.”


 
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From Slate VoteCastr which is from their exit polls experiment and must be taken with a huge grain of salt:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/08/votecastr_early_vote_estimate_clinton_leads_in_florida.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_ru

VoteCastr Early Vote Estimate: Clinton Leads in Florida

We launched our collaboration with VoteCastr this morning with a look at the early vote out of Colorado, where Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump 46.3 percent to 43.6 percent based on VoteCastr's analysis of known ballots cast. We're now going to take a look at the early vote from six additional battleground states.

Before I get to the numbers, I want to be clear: VoteCastr isn’t predicting that Clinton or Trump will win any of these states. There are still plenty of votes left to be counted today. After I lay out how the early-vote numbers are looking, I’ll describe in detail how the VoteCastr methodology works, so you can evaluate these tallies for yourself. Also, keep in mind that these are not the absolute final early-vote numbers; the counts may change as the day progresses as VoteCastr processes more early-vote data. Check back on this page throughout the day for updated early-vote numbers.

Without further ado, here are VoteCastr’s early-vote estimates. Clinton is leading in five of the six states for which we have data, including Florida. Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, though early votes in that state are extremely scarce.


Florida
2016 Early Vote: 3,685,667 early votes, 41.8 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 1,780,573 early votes, 42.0 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 1,678,848 early votes, 40.3 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012 Results: Obama won, 50.0 percent to 49.1 percent   

Iowa
2016 Early Vote: 563,444 early votes, 35.6 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 273,188 early votes, 33.2 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 244,739 early votes, 33.5 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.1 percent to 46.5 percent


Nevada
2016 Early Vote: 593,964 early votes, 58.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 276,461 early votes, 52.0 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 269,255 early votes, 58.1 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.3 percent to 45.7 percent

Ohio
2016 Early Vote: 1,320,559 early votes, 23.7 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 632,433 early votes, 22.4 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 579,916 early votes, 21.8 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 50.1 percent to 48.2 percent


Pennsylvania
2016 Early Vote: 199,167 early votes, 3.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton 85,367 early votes, 2.8 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 99,286 early votes, 3.7 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.0 percent to 46.8 percent
Wisconsin
2016 Early Vote: 560,455 early votes, 18.3 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton 295,302 early votes, 18.2 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 225,281 early votes, 16.0 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012 Obama won, 52.8 percent to 46.1 percent
                              [...]


 
 Trump booed as he and Melania cast their votes

Donald Trump arrived to a chorus of boos as he cast his vote for his favorite Republican on Tuesday — after refusing to say definitively if he would accept the election’s outcome.

The GOP presidential nominee was accompanied by wife Melania, daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared Kushner as they voted just before 11 a.m. at PS 59 on East 56th Street.

“It’s a great honor, a tremendous honor” to be casting his ballot, said Trump, who said he was optimistic about his future in the Oval Office, citing “tremendous enthusiasm.”

It took the Trump clan only a few minutes to vote before they were escorted out by the Secret Service.

Trump — who has railed against a “rigged system” — was coy in radio interviews earlier in the morning when asked about accepting the will of the people.

“I want to see what happens, you know, how it goes as per our previous little chat,” Trump said on Newsradio 610 WTVN, CNN reported. “You know, you want to see. You hear so many horrible stories and you see so many things that are wrong. So we’ll take a look. Certainly, I love this country and I believe in the system, you understand that.”

In the final presidential debate, Trump refused to say he’d accept the election’s outcome. He later clarified to say he’d accept the results — if he wins.

Trump echoed those sentiments in another Tuesday interview.

“If I think everything’s on the up and up, that’s a lot different, and we can only see what happens, I hope it’s going to be very fair, I think we’re going to do very well,” he told AM Tampa Bay on 970 WFLA.

 
I know it's a small sample size, but the location that I'm working at has had about 50 voters in almost 6 hours of voting. Very urban location. Another suburban location has had a constant 2 hour wait and over 1100 voters processed. 

 
squistion said:
I am in LA County too, but voted by absentee ballot for the first time this year as I missed the 2012 election due to a scheduling conflict. Pretty easy way to go, only downside is that I didn't understand one of the propositions clearly and would change my vote now - however I will probably go this route again in future elections.
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I like going in person. Makes me feel like I'm somewhat part of the whole process rather than just mailing another bill in for collection.

 
Gr00vus said:
I like going in person. Makes me feel like I'm somewhat part of the whole process rather than just mailing another bill in for collection.
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I do too, but I can't guarantee that I am going to be in town on election day - but I still felt part of the process.

On a side note, the absentee ballot stated that if you were to write in a candidate the vote will not count unless it is on a approved list of write in candidates (which is on some website or available at the polling place). I don't know if any other states have this requirement. Makes sense in that it saves the volunteers who are processing the votes from wasting their time recording votes for Mickey Mouse and Pepe The Frog.

 
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