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RB Joe Mixon, HOU (2 Viewers)

Concept Coop said:
OT, but what's wrong with Ray Lewis?  I know there's the running joke that he's a murderer, but he's clearly not.  And the guys who did it were found in court to have acted in self defense, even.  
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Lewis struck a plea deal to plead to a misdemeanor for obstruction and in turn testified against the two others and had his 2 counts of murder dropped. 

The case isn't as cut and dry and you seem to make it. There are a lot of unanswered questions. Such as where is his white suit he had on that night. If he was an innocent party he shouldn't have any blood on it. Why would he pay a family off?

Also, Lewis isn't as sweet and innocent as you seem to think the is, even without his murder charges:

Lewis has also been publicly accused – though never convicted – of violence in several previous incidents, including two involving separate women who were pregnant with his child while he was at the University of Miami (one woman declined to press charges after the police arrived, while the other reportedly complained that the police had hindered the investigation, which was eventually dropped after the Miami-Dade state attorney’s office concluded it lacked sufficient evidence to pursue the case), according to the Daily Beast.

And New England Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker’s wife recently reminded us all, “6 kids 4 wives. Acquitted for murder. Paid a family off. Yay! What a hall of fame player! A true role model!” [sic].
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There's more than just the murder charge that has shadowed his career. The guy played long enough for people to forget the skeletons in his closet enough for him to end up on TV

 
I don't know enough or watch enough football to be able to really "grade out" an offensive line.  Was listening to SiriusNFL radio earlier today who said that the Bengals may have the worst O line in the game right now.  If true, why are folks so high on Mixon?  I loved him up until he was drafted - was really hoping for Indy or Green Bay for him. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Lewis struck a plea deal to plead to a misdemeanor for obstruction and in turn testified against the two others and had his 2 counts of murder dropped. 

The case isn't as cut and dry and you seem to make it. There are a lot of unanswered questions. Such as where is his white suit he had on that night. If he was an innocent party he shouldn't have any blood on it. Why would he pay a family off?

Also, Lewis isn't as sweet and innocent as you seem to think the is, even without his murder charges:

There's more than just the murder charge that has shadowed his career. The guy played long enough for people to forget the skeletons in his closet enough for him to end up on TV
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I asked a question; I didn't intend to present a stance on his character.  I didn't know about the domestic violence stuff, so thank you sharing it. 

As for his murder charge--the prosecutors are the scum in that story.  They knew he didn't commit the crime, and only ever intended to bully him.  In a perfect world, they'd have served time for that.  The fact that he didn't commit murder is very cut and dry.  

 
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matttyl said:
I don't know enough or watch enough football to be able to really "grade out" an offensive line.  Was listening to SiriusNFL radio earlier today who said that the Bengals may have the worst O line in the game right now.  If true, why are folks so high on Mixon?  I loved him up until he was drafted - was really hoping for Indy or Green Bay for him. 
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The Bengals signed an o lineman that the Vikings cut this off season, that says it all about their line

 
matttyl said:
I don't know enough or watch enough football to be able to really "grade out" an offensive line.  Was listening to SiriusNFL radio earlier today who said that the Bengals may have the worst O line in the game right now.  If true, why are folks so high on Mixon?  I loved him up until he was drafted - was really hoping for Indy or Green Bay for him. 
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Cincy should be a team that game plans on running but has the weapons in the passing game to keep a defense honest. Or at that seems to be how a lot of people perceive them. I would say I do too. The other thing is that Mixon is a good threat in the passing game as well. With Ross and AJG there should be room to work when Dalton checks down to his RB. 

Gio is coming off an injury and Hill is Hill. 

 
Borden said:
Cincy should be a team that game plans on running but has the weapons in the passing game to keep a defense honest. Or at that seems to be how a lot of people perceive them. I would say I do too. The other thing is that Mixon is a good threat in the passing game as well. With Ross and AJG there should be room to work when Dalton checks down to his RB. 

Gio is coming off an injury and Hill is Hill. 
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I'd be considering him at #3 in my non PPR dynasty to be the next L McCoy, not the next Theo Riddick.  Will he have an opportunity in the next year or two to be a 1,200 rushing yard, with receiving on top of that kinda RB?

 
matttyl said:
I'd be considering him at #3 in my non PPR dynasty to be the next L McCoy, not the next Theo Riddick.  Will he have an opportunity in the next year or two to be a 1,200 rushing yard, with receiving on top of that kinda RB?
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I haven't listened to the FBG podcast in awhile but they always used to talk about the assumption of rational coaching. I might think that Mixon is a 3rd down back but they might view it as Hill being the Perine and run two back sets or a some kind of split. They also might not be confident in Gio coming back to 100% but if he goes he's their guy for passing downs. 

As for taking him at #3, it's all a crap shoot. If you're expecting any player (that's not Zeke going to Dallas) to be a consistent Pro Bowl player, your expectations are too high. Mixon is more talented as athletic runner than a polished running back (understanding what to do and when to do it) but that can be taught. I don't think Hill and Gio are unbeatable competition and Mixon could end up getting a lot of work. And with the weapons Dalton has defenses can't sell out on the run. A talented player in a decent situation probably isn't a bad choice at #3. 

 
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Borden said:
I haven't listened to the FBG podcast in awhile but they always used to talk about the assumption of rational coaching. I might think that Mixon is a 3rd down back but they might view it as Hill being the Perine and run two back sets or a some kind of split. They also might not be confident in Gio coming back to 100% but if he goes he's their guy for passing downs. 
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I think it's worth pointing out that the investment they made in Mixon goes far beyond the draft pick they selected him with.  Based on that, I think it's safe to assume that they have big aspirations for him.  

 
Borden said:
I haven't listened to the FBG podcast in awhile but they always used to talk about the assumption of rational coaching. I might think that Mixon is a 3rd down back but they might view it as Hill being the Perine and run two back sets or a some kind of split. They also might not be confident in Gio coming back to 100% but if he goes he's their guy for passing downs. 

As for taking him at #3, it's all a crap shoot. If you're expecting any player (that's not Zeke going to Dallas) to be a consistent Pro Bowl player, your expectations are too high. Mixon is more talented as athletic runner than a polished running back (understanding what to do and when to do it) but that can be taught. I don't think Hill and Gio are unbeatable competition and Mixon could end up getting a lot of work. And with the weapons Dalton has defenses can't sell out on the run. A talented player in a decent situation probably isn't a choice at #3. 
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It's interesting... before the draft I would have thought if I could land Mixon at 1.03 I'd be super excited. CIN was the most logical but also the worst for fantasy of any team showing interest. Maybe DET would be just as frustrating. 

At 1.03 I'm not sure I'd take Mixon... For the reasons you stated. That's a big risk when there are other RBs I'd strongly consider. That's a tough position to be in. 

At this point I like Fournette, McCaffrey, and even Cook's situations way better than Mixon. Mixon might be the best all around back compared to those 3 (arguable claim), but he's definitely not in the best situation short term. Long term... I'm not sure. Mixon has those risk factors although for me it's not a huge issue. Hill is Hill. Gio I'm not real concerned about. I guess it'd depend what the rest of my roster looked like. If McCaffrey was there I'd probably take him. If it was between Cook and Mixon... I'd probably take Mixon. 

 
matttyl said:
I don't know enough or watch enough football to be able to really "grade out" an offensive line.  Was listening to SiriusNFL radio earlier today who said that the Bengals may have the worst O line in the game right now.  If true, why are folks so high on Mixon?  I loved him up until he was drafted - was really hoping for Indy or Green Bay for him. 
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Bengals season ticket holder here.

The Bengals OL is absolutely a cause for concern. No sugar coating it. That said whoever it was on SiriusNFL radio that said it might be the worst is Chicken Little. What happened in the off season is that Whitworth and Zeitler were allowed to leave and signed as FAs elsewhere. The Bengals made no attempt at keeping either. I was OK with Whitworth because 1) He's getting a little long in the tooth and 2) His asking price, when considering his age, was pretty high. Losing Zeitler really hurt as he was VERY good last year and I don't think he's peaked. My preference would have been to let Whit walk but sign Zeitler. So, why would the Bengals let TWO starting OL walk? Because they drafted Ogbuehi at 1.21 and Fisher at 2.21 in 2015. They used up back to back 1st and 2nd round picks and are expecting (hoping?) that these guys will pick up the slack.

I'm not saying they won't struggle and I'm not saying that asking Ogbuehi & Fisher to take the place of Whit and Zeitler is a good plan but the cupboard is most certainly not bare.

Gopher State said:
The Bengals signed an o lineman that the Vikings cut this off season, that says it all about their line
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Andre Smith. #1 He was injured last year. Only player 4 games, was on a 1 year contract and they decided to cut bait. #2 He was expected to play OT in Min but the Bengals are bringing him back to play OG. They got him pretty cheap and I think he's just a "throw him up on the wall and see what sticks" scenario. Not expecting much but also have no problems with it.

 
Concept Coop said:
I think it's worth pointing out that the investment they made in Mixon goes far beyond the draft pick they selected him with.  Based on that, I think it's safe to assume that they have big aspirations for him.  
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Absolutely. I'm not disagreeing at all. But like I said that's assuming rational coaching (or GMing in this case). There's been legitimate proven studs in the NFL that coaches have under used or misused. I'm sure we've all said at some point "1 target! Are you kidding me?!" Or "4 carries!! C'mon!" That's all I'm saying.

 
Borden said:
Absolutely. I'm not disagreeing at all. But like I said that's assuming rational coaching (or GMing in this case). There's been legitimate proven studs in the NFL that coaches have under used or misused. I'm sure we've all said at some point "1 target! Are you kidding me?!" Or "4 carries!! C'mon!" That's all I'm saying.
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Very true, especially with young players. 

 
matttyl said:
I don't know enough or watch enough football to be able to really "grade out" an offensive line.  Was listening to SiriusNFL radio earlier today who said that the Bengals may have the worst O line in the game right now.  If true, why are folks so high on Mixon?  I loved him up until he was drafted - was really hoping for Indy or Green Bay for him. 
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The Bengals lost two of the top free agent offensive linemen in free agency. So that is some reason to think the quality of their replacements falling short of the players they lost. The Bengals did prepare for this with high picks on offensive linemen in recent drafts though. So it might not be as bad as some worry. Their LT Whitworth considered one of the best LT in the game right now, but he is 35 years old. Zeitler is younger and also highly regarded as a guard. Remains to be seen if the replacements are average, bad or maybe even good players. Odds against them being as good as the players they lost though, as both played at a high level in recent seasons.

Green Bay has lost some quality offensive linemen recently too. TJ Lang this year and John Sitton last year. They have some transition happening there as well. Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck makes that a more attractive landing spot I agree, but there are questions about the quality of those offensive lines as well. The Colts have invested in the position recently, but their offensive line isn't considered good yet, They maybe improved to average last year though? Not sure exactly where they would stack up compared to other teams units.

 
Borden said:
Absolutely. I'm not disagreeing at all. But like I said that's assuming rational coaching (or GMing in this case). There's been legitimate proven studs in the NFL that coaches have under used or misused. I'm sure we've all said at some point "1 target! Are you kidding me?!" Or "4 carries!! C'mon!" That's all I'm saying.
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This is the same staff that made Gio the #1 RB off the board and proceeded to give Benjarvus Green Ellis 220 carries despite averaging 3.4 ypc.

 
Dr. Dan said:
What is most helpful with the forums and these threads is for all of us to gather as much opinion, facts, and predictions as we can and make our own opinions based on that. It's great that people disagree with me and think Mixon is going to either repeat his violent incident or he will just not do well in the NFL. I enjoy reading peoples' reasoning for this. It challenges my own thoughts and opinions and will either solidfy my opinion or will potentially change it. Debating for the next 6 months whether or not Mixon will win rookie of the year honors is ridiculous. Debating if he should go 1.01 in rookie drafts is very legitimate. 
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Great points.  I have to admit I love Mixon and hope to draft him at 1.03.  But I'd love to hear the negatives on this guy as a football player (and not about the Bengals OL; his talent not his situation) - I get paranoid I am overlooking things due to my "love" of a player.  To me he looks like a complete, 3-down back.

 
Andrew74 said:
Great points.  I have to admit I love Mixon and hope to draft him at 1.03.  But I'd love to hear the negatives on this guy as a football player (and not about the Bengals OL; his talent not his situation) - I get paranoid I am overlooking things due to my "love" of a player.  To me he looks like a complete, 3-down back.
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His talent is pretty bulletproof.  Plenty of people bagging on his OL, his character, his suspension risk, but no one's got a negative thing to say about his talent.

 
Hankmoody said:
His talent is pretty bulletproof.  Plenty of people bagging on his OL, his character, his suspension risk, but no one's got a negative thing to say about his talent.
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Hankmoody said:
His talent is pretty bulletproof.  Plenty of people bagging on his OL, his character, his suspension risk, but no one's got a negative thing to say about his talent.
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Hankmoody said:
His talent is pretty bulletproof.  Plenty of people bagging on his OL, his character, his suspension risk, but no one's got a negative thing to say about his talent.
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It takes more then talent to be a great RB, you have to have a good o line and cinn does not have one

 
Bernard and Hill have both put up useful FF seasons in the past, and Mixon is better than either. Not too worried about the situation.

 
Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said rookie Joe Mixon "needs to get back in shape."
Mixon's conditioning apparently slipped after taking so many pre-draft visits. This doesn't sound like anything to be concerned about going into OTAs. Mixon is the favorite to start over Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard in Cincinnati.

 
 
Source: Katherine Terrell on Twitter
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pghrob said:
I am having a difficult time shaking the notion to draft Mixon 1.1 in 12 team ppr rookie draft <snip> All 3 of Fournette, Mixon, and McCaffrey look to be promising prospects.  I just have hunch that Mixon's future sustained production seems more likely.
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Could try trading from 1.1 to 1.2 or 1.3?  I'm guessing that Mixon would not be the 1.1 for most owners.

 
 

ESPN Bengals reporter Katherine Terrell believes second-round RB Joe Mixon "will likely get a heavy dose of playing time right away."
Terrell expects the Bengals to use Mixon "in a variety of ways" including as a kick returner. With Giovani Bernard (knee) questionable for Week 1 and Jeremy Hill coming off back-to-back bad seasons, Mixon has several avenues to early production. In fact, Mixon has a good shot to unseat Hill in training camp.

 
 
Source: ESPN 
May 9 - 9:10 AM
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Guy has a lot of talent. But then again every player has talent. Question is what they have inside and upstairs. Some will become or not become very successful because of those things. 

 
The Man With No Name said:
Guy has a lot of talent. But then again every player has talent. Question is what they have inside and upstairs. Some will become or not become very successful because of those things. 
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I don't agree with what he did obviously. I do like that he does no shy away from the issue and looks the person asking the questions in the eye. Doesn't mean much but hopefully he uses this once in a lifetime chance to make a difference on and off the field. He is on thin ice as any additional incidents will most likely be the end of his career.

 
Bengals have ranked top ten in the NFL in both rushing attempts and red-zone carries in each of the past three seasons.

While Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill's presence on the roster increases Joe Mixon's fantasy risk, it's also true that Mixon will run into a bevy of opportunity should he seize lead back duties before Week 1. Mixon's chances are helped by Bernard's (ACL) questionable status for the opener. Mixon is going in the RB15-18 range in early drafts. You can read more about this year's Bengals in Evan Silva's Team Fantasy Preview at the link below.

Source: Bengals Fantasy Preview
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You're looking at the best rookie Rb in this years Class imo.  He's my main target with the 3rd pick in my rookie draft and I'd take him over fournette and mccaffery.  Fournette, bad team, bad offense, and I believe he is overhyped.  He might not have even been the best back on his college team.  Look at Darius guise.  Plus he isn't as involved in the pass game.  Mccaffery great talent bad situation in which the qb steals too many Tds from the rbs.  And they don't use rbs well and cam has very little history of utilizing the dump offs and screens to a player like him.  Then again they haven't had a player like him but it doesn't give me warm and fuzzies. 

Mixon to me seems like the most well rounded and talented back in this draft.  Character concerns are...concerning.  But I will take the risk.  I think by mid season he's the lead back in Cincy and taking the league by storm.  

 
rickyg said:
You're looking at the best rookie Rb in this years Class imo.  He's my main target with the 3rd pick in my rookie draft and I'd take him over fournette and mccaffery.  Fournette, bad team, bad offense, and I believe he is overhyped.  He might not have even been the best back on his college team.  Look at Darius guise.  Plus he isn't as involved in the pass game.  Mccaffery great talent bad situation in which the qb steals too many Tds from the rbs.  And they don't use rbs well and cam has very little history of utilizing the dump offs and screens to a player like him.  Then again they haven't had a player like him but it doesn't give me warm and fuzzies. 

Mixon to me seems like the most well rounded and talented back in this draft.  Character concerns are...concerning.  But I will take the risk.  I think by mid season he's the lead back in Cincy and taking the league by storm.  
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What about the fact that he almost never saw a stacked box in college?  Any concerns that he's never seen a tough defense and that inflated his stats and made his tape look better?

 
steelers1080 said:
What about the fact that he almost never saw a stacked box in college?  Any concerns that he's never seen a tough defense and that inflated his stats and made his tape look better?
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I'd be more concerned about an endorsement from rickyg ;)

I do have some concerns but (jokes aside) ricky is right on. He's very well rounded and although he never saw stacked boxes, I'm not entirely sure he will see a lot of stacked boxes in CIN. Fournette... sure, I would see him getting stacked boxes. 

I think he's missing the mark on McCaffery but I agree that Mixon is likely to be the lead back by midseason and putting up some pretty nice numbers. 

 
steelers1080 said:
What about the fact that he almost never saw a stacked box in college?  Any concerns that he's never seen a tough defense and that inflated his stats and made his tape look better?
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You think he'll ever see stacked boxes with Green and Eifert running deep and mid-range routes? No team can afford to bring up the safeties. Green would destroy them.

 
I think the dimension he adds in the passing game is where he can really make an impact. This offense has the potential to be alot of fun to watch if healthy and the oline can do a marginal job.

 
flysack said:
You think he'll ever see stacked boxes with Green and Eifert running deep and mid-range routes? No team can afford to bring up the safeties. Green would destroy them.
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A single high safety rolled over Green would still get 8 in the box. Eifert is a wash because the S in the box would line up over him. Teams don't have to account for him deep until the ball is snapped. And even then they are still starting the play in the box.

Ross can go deep but hasn't done anything to prove that he deserves more than single coverage yet. 

 
A few years ago I was reading some interesting information about how often NFL defenses lined up with 8 or more defenders in the box.

The percentages were all below 50% and the average across all teams was something like 20% or less of the time, so you are mostly talking about 1st downs and short yardage except for a few teams that faced it more.

What was interesting about this is that the more often NFL offenses used 2 or more TE formations, the more often they faced 8 or more defenders near the line.

Frank Gore with Harbaugh faced it the most and this is when they had Vernon Davis and Delannie Walker (plus another blocking TE at times forget the name now) playing a lot of snaps. I think Adrian Peterson faced it the 2nd most and they played a lot of 2 TE formations at that time as well.

A bad QB (like Christian Ponder) can make a defense more confident about getting away with it. Dalton at least presents enough of a threat that defenses cannot cheat up too much.

 
IF Dalton is able to build a rapport with Ross, it will help Mixon immensely. I just don't know if Dalton has the release required to get the ball to a small fast guy like Ross consistently. He has no problem with big guys like Green and Eifert. Size wise, the only comparable guys is Hawkins and he never had big plays with Dalton. Ross is way faster and the timing is totally different between passes to him and passes to the other guys.

Full disclosure: I'm talking Mixon at 3 regardless.

 
wait are we really talking about yet ANOTHER Cincy Rb who is going to take the world by storm carve defenses catch oodles of passes and score plenty of td's? we just had that with Gio a couple years ago. and there are like 14 rbs on that roster. hard to get all worked up on rookie rb in a Marv Lewis offense in a sick division with tough run defenses for miles and miles ..Dalvin Cook is the best RB in this draft and he's a 3 down starter from Day One.oh, and unlike Mixon he has absolutely ZERO competition..

 
Tanner9919 said:
wait are we really talking about yet ANOTHER Cincy Rb who is going to take the world by storm carve defenses catch oodles of passes and score plenty of td's? we just had that with Gio a couple years ago. and there are like 14 rbs on that roster. hard to get all worked up on rookie rb in a Marv Lewis offense in a sick division with tough run defenses for miles and miles ..Dalvin Cook is the best RB in this draft and he's a 3 down starter from Day One.oh, and unlike Mixon he has absolutely ZERO competition..
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This new shtick sucks.

 
Tanner9919 said:
wait are we really talking about yet ANOTHER Cincy Rb who is going to take the world by storm carve defenses catch oodles of passes and score plenty of td's? we just had that with Gio a couple years ago. and there are like 14 rbs on that roster. hard to get all worked up on rookie rb in a Marv Lewis offense in a sick division with tough run defenses for miles and miles ..Dalvin Cook is the best RB in this draft and he's a 3 down starter from Day One.oh, and unlike Mixon he has absolutely ZERO competition..
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I can go into how Cook's talent and OL/Offense situation is no where near as good as Mixon's but you've already digested the Kool-Aid so there's no point.

Thanks for the quote though. I've bookmarked it so we can laugh at your expense later

 
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Why does everyone keep calling the wrong RBs best in class?  That title belongs to CMC. How many more times do I have to tell you guys?

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
Why does everyone keep calling the wrong RBs best in class?  That title belongs to CMC. How many more times do I have to tell you guys?
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I actually agree with this 100%

CMC is the best RB in this class. Mixon has potential to be very very good though. As I said above, I think rickyg is wrong about CMC and I expect big things from him. This was a great RB class in general. We may see 5-6 starters come out of this class (maybe not this season but within the next 2-3). 

 
Dr. Dan said:
I can go into how Cook's talent and OL/Offense situation is no where near as good as Mixon's but you've already digested the Kool-Aid so there's no point.

Thanks for the quote though. I've bookmarked it so we can laugh at your expense later
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Are you 12 years old?  People like you are what's wrong with this place.  Nobody is allowed to have an opinion and you will make sure that if that opinion is proven wrong you will shove it in their face later.

 
The risks regarding Mixon are understated due to the off the field issues.  The off the field stuff overshadows everything else.  We're stuck in this unrealistic void where the general consensus is that Mixon is some kind of perfect prospect that punched a woman, and you either believe he's a risky pick because he might get kicked off the team or you think he'll fall in line and just putz right on to being some kind of blend of Barry Sanders and Walter Payton.  It's a bit bizarre to me.  When Adrian Peterson came out we did like 200 pages on whether or not he was going to be a good player on the field, yet with Mixon we just assume he is?

The reality is that there are plenty of on the field risks about Mixon.  As has already been mentioned, he often ran on a dominant college program behind typically very thin defenses up front.  Probably the most concerning thing is that almost every actual scouting report that focuses on his on the field play mentions that his vision lags far behind the other RB prospects, with basically no one giving it a rating any better than merely "average".  We saw what elite athleticism and poor vision looked like with Trent Richardson.

Mixon has sweet moves but when you pull up the highlights they always occur well downfield when he's running at full speed after accelerating through a gaping hole.  His second most criticized aspect behind vision is an inability to be creative around the line of scrimmage.  Next up comes poor footwork around the line of scrimmage.  Lastly, for all the talk of him being a 3-down back we was very rarely ever asked to stay in and pass block in college so we don't really know whether or not he can do it, yet it is a requirement for him to be a 3-down back.

There is a pattern here as almost all of his weaknesses center around his ability to be an early down workhorse.  Struggles finding holes when they're small, struggles creating his own when a big one isn't there, and has poor footwork for getting through those holes when he does find them.  Everyone seems to be projecting Mixon as a 3-down back simply because he has the size for it.  But he never played that role in college (he barely has a full season's worth of carries in his whole college career) and all of his biggest weaknesses are in areas where a workhorse back needs to excel.

I'm sure he'd still make a fine fantasy player as a CoP back that plays in passing situations against defenses back on their heels, but if that's what he ends up being then he's probably being overdrafted.  I'm in no way saying that he can't be a full time back, just that there are a lot of risks in that happening that are getting overshadowed because every discussion about him ends up turning to the off the field stuff.

 
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