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RB Alvin Kamara, NO (2 Viewers)

dukezib said:
That's the point. People continue to pass him in the draft. Maybe is his depth chart position...
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I don't really see him getting a lot of opportunity this year although he could surprise me and a lot of people as far as that goes.

I see him being pretty valuable for 2018 however. Perhaps some concern about Sean Payton or Drew Brees moving on? That could change the outlook I suppose.

Talented player though and I think a bargain for that price as long as you have a roster spot for him.

FWIW I have Kamara ranked 15th overall, and that is with me not considering him making much impact in 2017 and a general tendency on my part to avoid Saints RB.

 
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Cadet got 53 targets last year. I see no reason why Kamara wouldn't at least get those targets.   The Saints have been averaging 148 targets to running backs the past three years. I think it is more likely they return to the averages the three years prior during the Sproles/P. Thomas era of 185, because there isn't an established third target behind Thomas and Snead.  That said, all Kamara has to do is make Cadet expendable to be fantasy relevant. Unlike Cadet,  Kamara won't be relegated to 4 carries.

 
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Anyone getting this guy in the 3rd round of dynasty rookie drafts needs to find a new league that is actually a challenge.  This guy had a late 1st round adp BEFORE he broke off a 50 yard TD run against the 1's last week.

 
Hi.  My name is Arodin, and I've been Saints-rb free for 3 years.

I'm here to tell you there is hope.  It may be a long process.  You may fall down many times, but keep on getting up.

Keep sending out those trade offers.  Keep working at loving a later sleeper on a different team.  Eventually, you CAN be rid of Sean Payton's backs, and your fantasy life CAN improve markedly.  It's worth it.

 
Biabreakable said:
Dear Saints RB addicts.

If you are getting Kamara in the 3rd round of rookie drafts. Its stealing. So you have more than just a problem with addiction.

I am surprised he is falling that far. You should thank your lucky stars to be able to get him for that price.
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Yeah damn, I took him late first in two ppr rookie drafts.

 
It makes me curious who was drafted ahead of Kamara in these drafts where he is falling to the third round.

I do have 22 tier two players after the top 8 tier one players. So I guess about 30 players who you could consider equal of greater in terms of tier. I just have Kamara pretty high among those 22 players and ahead of the 4 QB. I am guessing at least some of the QB were drafted ahead of him. Just curious who else? Maybe some players who I have as tier 3 guys or maybe some veteran picks in there?

Kind of scary to think that maybe Joe Williams or some other guys may have been drafted ahead of him.

 
Spiller was all speed and nothing else. 196 pounds on a 5'10"+ frame. Kamara is about an inch shorter and almost 20 pounds heavier. I was not sold on him as a draft prospect, but he has shown some really good things this preseason. If it clicks, he can be a monster in FF because he can catch + run on all three downs.

 
Biabreakable said:
It makes me curious who was drafted ahead of Kamara in these drafts where he is falling to the third round.

I do have 22 tier two players after the top 8 tier one players. So I guess about 30 players who you could consider equal of greater in terms of tier. I just have Kamara pretty high among those 22 players and ahead of the 4 QB. I am guessing at least some of the QB were drafted ahead of him. Just curious who else? Maybe some players who I have as tier 3 guys or maybe some veteran picks in there?

Kind of scary to think that maybe Joe Williams or some other guys may have been drafted ahead of him.
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There were some reached for sure, OJ Howard, David Njoku, Foreman, and Evan Engram all went in the 1st. This is a TE premo league (this is our 1st year as such).

Tex

 
I am definitely pulling the lottery ticket for this guy...he is far from a definite but the upside is very enticing...the good news is a "reach" for Kamara isn't like using a third or fourth round...unless something changes dramatically he can still be obtained at a "non-premium" draft position...

 
BigTex said:
There were some reached for sure, OJ Howard, David Njoku, Foreman, and Evan Engram all went in the 1st. This is a TE premo league (this is our 1st year as such).

Tex
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I have all of those players ahead of Kamara. Wouldn't say those picks were reaches.

There must be others than that for him to go 25th or later.

 
This is the saints, where RB's come to be fantasy irrelevant under payton. hard cap ceiling of mid to low RB2 for this year and next looks to be realistic to me, so as much as he looks great and had thought about reaching for him at the end of my draft, this is a tough one to buy into. Good luck to all from this masochist who can't seem to stay away from Saints RB's.

 
Pigskin Fanatic said:
This is the saints, where RB's come to be fantasy irrelevant under payton. hard cap ceiling of mid to low RB2 for this year and next looks to be realistic to me, so as much as he looks great and had thought about reaching for him at the end of my draft, this is a tough one to buy into. Good luck to all from this masochist who can't seem to stay away from Saints RB's.
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They've literally had a RB1 or high RB2 for each of the last 3 consecutive years.  RB8, RB11, and RB15.

 
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Biabreakable said:
I have all of those players ahead of Kamara. Wouldn't say those picks were reaches.

There must be others than that for him to go 25th or later.
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Conner, Gallman, Golladay, Watson, Westbrook, Zay Jones, Joe Williams, Mack, Everette, Taylor, Kupp, Samuel

People are afraid of two things, his body of work and being drafted by NO.

Tex

ETA Foreman was a reach, he went before Davis and Hunt but I guess a case could be made for him going before Hunt. Howard went before Davis too.

 
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BigTex said:
Conner, Gallman, Golladay, Watson, Westbrook, Zay Jones, Joe Williams, Mack, Everette, Taylor, Kupp, Samuel

People are afraid of two things, his body of work and being drafted by NO.

Tex
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I would take Kamara over every player on that list (Dynasty).  Gallman?!  Yikes!!  In a recent dynasty PPR draft I was in, Kamara went 13th.  I had him ranked even a few spots higher.

 
Pigskin Fanatic said:
This is the saints, where RB's come to be fantasy irrelevant under payton. hard cap ceiling of mid to low RB2 for this year and next looks to be realistic to me, so as much as he looks great and had thought about reaching for him at the end of my draft, this is a tough one to buy into. Good luck to all from this masochist who can't seem to stay away from Saints RB's.
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I'd love to see him finish as mid to low RB2 this year.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
They've literally had a RB1 or high RB2 for each of the last 3 consecutive years.  RB8, RB11, and RB15.
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I'm assuming you mean the top back for the team, as in Ingram. Kamara won't take that job and won't see the kind of workload Ingram has seen over those years. So you have to project him as the CoP guy. Certainly won't see this kind of numbers from Kamara as long as Ingram and ADP are both upright. Sproles and Spiller are the correct comparisons as you guys have pointed out and neither got anywhere near RB2 IIRC with the Saints.

 
BigTex said:
Conner, Gallman, Golladay, Watson, Westbrook, Zay Jones, Joe Williams, Mack, Everette, Taylor, Kupp, Samuel

People are afraid of two things, his body of work and being drafted by NO.

Tex

ETA Foreman was a reach, he went before Davis and Hunt but I guess a case could be made for him going before Hunt. Howard went before Davis too.
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Interesting.

I disagree with most of those except Zay Jones but maybe Mack and Conner have better careers than Kamara. Mack looked very good in most recent game. He is a player I have been hot and cold about. At times I think he is great and other times he seems flawed, although in areas that are likely coachable I think. That just makes me wonder why he was still doing stuff like being careless with the ball and losing big yardage trying to reverse field. Surely college coaches talked to him about these things right?

Anyhow maybe I am just under estimating some of these guys.

It is a really deep draft class this year and opinions vary.obviously. Kind of cool that your competition sees things differently.

 
Avoiding Saints RBs seems like a bad idea.

FreeBaGeL said:
They've literally had a RB1 or high RB2 for each of the last 3 consecutive years.  RB8, RB11, and RB15.
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But wait, there's more.

ZWK said:
In PPR leagues, New Orleans has had a fantasy RB1 in 2016 (Ingram), 2015 (Ingram), 2012 (Sproles), 2011 (Sproles), 2007 (Bush), and 2006 (Bush). So, about every other year. In Sean Payton's 11 seasons they've had 16 fantasy starter RB seasons (top 24 PPR RB: Ingram 3 times, Thomas 5 times, Sproles 3 times, Bush 4 times, McAllister 1 time). They can support more than one RB because they throw it to their RBs so much, and the guy who catches passes is a pretty safe bet.
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ZWK said:
Since Sean Payton took over the Saints in 2006, there have been 37 RB seasons with 4+ receptions per game (min 8 games). 10 of the 37 were Saints RBs (Ingram 1 time, Thomas 2 times, Sproles 3 times, and Bush 4 times).
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Here's another stat, points per game (PPR) from the Saints' best fantasy RB, min 10 games:

16.7    Reggie Bush    2006
17.4    Reggie Bush    2007
17.2    Reggie Bush    2008
14.0    Pierre Thomas    2009
8.7      Chris Ivory    2010
17.0    Darren Sproles    2011
16.5    Darren Sproles    2012
13.3    Pierre Thomas    2013
14.9    Mark Ingram    2014
17.0    Mark Ingram    2015
15.1    Mark Ingram    2016

15.0 ppg is roughly the RB1/RB2 cutoff and 12.0 is roughly the RB2/RB3 cutoff.  2010 was the year when Bush and Thomas both missed a bunch of games; they both had a higher ppg than Ivory but didn't make the 10 game cutoff.

 
Pigskin Fanatic said:
I'm assuming you mean the top back for the team, as in Ingram. Kamara won't take that job and won't see the kind of workload Ingram has seen over those years. So you have to project him as the CoP guy. Certainly won't see this kind of numbers from Kamara as long as Ingram and ADP are both upright. Sproles and Spiller are the correct comparisons as you guys have pointed out and neither got anywhere near RB2 IIRC with the Saints.
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Not really on needing the workload or being confined to RB2 less yet not being close-he can do more with less.

PPR league talk only.

Sproles was a RB1 in PPG at least 2 of his 3 seasons in New Orleans and he averaged 4.65 carries a game. That is all.  During his 3 year run with the Saints he averaged 4.27 carries and over 15 fantasy points a game which is usually going to put you in top 10 PPG RB numbers.  During this time he only gave you 3.1 fantasy points per game in the running game, the other 12 came via the passing game. He also scored more if you factor in performance scoring like which gives him credit for TD's scored as a returner, which Kamara is gifted at himself, but I'm not including that for him, Kamara or Sproles.

Reggie got about 10 carries a game which I don't see Kamara hitting so long as AP and Ingram are healthy. But that's still not much and again he gave you over 16 fantasy points a game during his Saint career which is RB1 type production.

Another way of looking at this is Sproles you about 12 fantasy points a game and Reggie about 11 fantasy points a game if they never had so much as one single carry. Those are RB2 numbers.

 
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BigTex said:
Conner, Gallman, Golladay, Watson, Westbrook, Zay Jones, Joe Williams, Mack, Everette, Taylor, Kupp, Samuel

People are afraid of two things, his body of work and being drafted by NO.

Tex

ETA Foreman was a reach, he went before Davis and Hunt but I guess a case could be made for him going before Hunt. Howard went before Davis too.
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Ouch.  I can see Zones but no one else on that list is sniffing Kamara territory for me.

 
Hankmoody said:
Ouch.  I can see Zones but no one else on that list is sniffing Kamara territory for me.
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Even though I have questions about Kamara there was no way I could pass him up at that point. I've been contemplating trading Kamara plus a pick to the Ingram owner for Corey Davis.

Tex

 
New Orleans RB targets the last 6 years (% of total targets):
2011  198  (30.2%)
2012  175  (26.7%)
2013  203  (31.6%)
2014  166  (25.6%) - first year without Sproles
2015  156  (23.6%)
2016  163  (24.5%)

Now they have shipped off Cooks and drafted a receiving back highly in Kamara. I think 2011-2013 target numbers are possible for their RBs, with ~80 of those to Kamara.

 
Alvin Kamara rushed seven times for 18 yards and caught 4-of-6 targets for 20 yards in the Saints' Week 1 loss to the Vikings.

Kamara led the Saints' running backs in carries, rushing yards, and snaps played (31). Adrian Peterson got the start but played just nine snaps, and Mark Ingram tied Kamara with 11 touches and played 26 snaps. Chalk it up to the Saints playing most of the night in a double-digit-points deficit. But Kamara did get in on the opening series of the night and was heavily involved throughout as he received carries between the tackles. It suggests his role won't strictly be limited to pass-game work. If available in fantasy leagues, Kamara needs to be picked up as an RB3/4 bench stash.
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I'm in.  I liked the way he was used in week 1 even with the offense out of sync. This week he faces the pats who just got destroyed through the air by hunt.

I think kamara hs his coming out party in a high scoring game.  Darren sproles 2.0 for the saints. 

 
mphtrilogy said:
I am not so sure he is much different then Cohen, other than he plays for a better O and drew brees, could be a massive bargain at at this point
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Hope your right, I'm in as well, picked him up for free after waivers ran today, one of the few guys who stayed a little under the radar coming out of the weekend 

 
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Opted for Buck Allen over him on waivers but I'm dying to snag him.

I should still pick him up but I am probably suffering from loving the guys I drafted a little too much just because I drafted them.

 
Chaka said:
Opted for Buck Allen over him on waivers but I'm dying to snag him.

I should still pick him up but I am probably suffering from loving the guys I drafted a little too much just because I drafted them.
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Your not alone.   I'm the same "just because I drafted them".  I should have a shorter leash.

 
Chaka said:
Opted for Buck Allen over him on waivers but I'm dying to snag him.

I should still pick him up but I am probably suffering from loving the guys I drafted a little too much just because I drafted them.
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So did I but just reversed course and dropped Allen for Kamara. I also have West and Ingram FWIW. Crapshoots everywhere.

 
I like his talent but I think how the Saints will use their RB this year will be maddening for anyone having to play any of them. This may be better long term as AP will probably be 1 year and done in New Orleans.

 
I don't know what but something will happen in season.  I just can't see this being the Saints plan for 16 games. Injury always a possibility of course.  ADP demanding a trade then just getting outright released?  Gameday inactive for one of them.  Can't put my finger on it but something has to happen.

 
Grabbed him in a 10T PPR league where I missed on Cohen. Intrigued to see how this will play out. 

 
At home vs NE, DET, TB, WAS, CAR, ATL, Kamara could be a sneaky PPR option. Especially as a flex. Moreso in return leagues. Even moreso if either AP or Ingram is phased out or injured.

 
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