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Tarik Cohen - RB - CHI


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On 9/13/2017 at 4:11 PM, BobbyLayne said:

In the last 20 years (1997-2016), there have been 15 rookie RBs who had more than 45 receptions.

Of those 15, at least 8 of them seem like not a good comp because they of their 3-down workload (Forte, Edge, LT2, Richardson, Slaton, D. Martin, Dom Williams, L. Bell.)

The other 7 were CoP backs or in a time share:

  • Reggie Bush   2006 155-565-6 121-88-742-2
  • Duke Johnson 2015 104-379-0 74-61-534-2
  • Jahvid Best 2010 171-555-4 80-58-487-2
  • Gio Bernard 2013 170-695-5 71-56-514-3
  • Roy Helu 2011 151-640-2 59-49-379-1
  • M. Jones-Drew 2006 166-941-13 62-46-436-2
  • J. Allen 2015 137-514-1 62-45-353-2

Allen and Helu are no talent outlier who seem irrelevant to the discussion. I don't see Cohen as being capable of producing the same rushing workload we saw from MJD or Gio. I think Best and Bush are good comps, and we'd like to think he's got tons of more talent than Duke. Anyway, my only point in looking at this is to see how frequently we see rookie RBs grab X number of receptions. Including the 3-down workhorses:

  • 90 or more - 0
  • 80-89 - 1
  • 70-79 - 0
  • 60-69 - 3
  • 50-59 - 8

Same cohort group, targets:

  • 120 or more - 1
  • 110-119 - 0
  • 100-109 - 0
  • 90-99 - 0
  • 80-89 - 2
  • 70-79 - 7

He's an interesting case study, and one game simply isn't enough of a data point to project. But Howard is going to get 15+ carries a game IMO.  Chicago's RB rushing attempts the last 3 years (includes the last 2 years of the Forte era) were 352, 424, and 302. They had 19 last week, which projects to 304. They're not a good team and figure to be behind often. If we project them at 345 RB ATT, and pencil in Howard at 240 (less than last year when he barely played the first 3 weeks), that leaves 105 for Tarik. I'll give him a Charles/Brown/Sanders average of 5.25. I think Howard gets most of the TDs in this offense.

105-551-3

Howard is on pace for 324 rushing attempts. Cohen's halfway stats extrapolate to 108-456-2

RB targets for CHI last 3 years: 96, 105, and 137. Here I like to look at the Forte era. Different back/regime, but I think it gives you some idea of how many targets we might see. I'd go one step further and point to DET/Riddick as a good comp. I could see the Bears having 160 RB targets this year. They had 17 last week (I believe that will be an outlier at YE), so with 143 remaining, I got Howard getting 48 (5 fm Week 1), Cohen 112 (12 Week 1.) That's a near historic pace; only Reggie Bush has had more than 82 targets in the last 20 years, and he wasn't a day 3 draft pick.

112-81-770-4*

78-56-468-2

Four straight weeks of one reception after catching 24 the first four games

*ties Edge and Forte for most of any rookie RB in the last 20 seasons

186 touches is almost 12 per game. 1321 total yards, 7 TDs, 255.10 points. That's RB7 in full PPR in 2014 & 2016, RB3 in 2015.

Which seems really, really absurd. There's a very low chance he stays healthy, continues to get the opportunity, and seizes that chance with historic results. You're asking for the perfect storm if you think ALL of that is going to happen this year. 

Let's drop the rookie comparisons and look at Sproles. Discounting the first 3 years (mostly return man), the little man has had between 705 and 911 yards 7 of the last 8 years. He had 1313 YFS (86 receptions) and 9 TDs in 2011. In the other 7 years, he has averaged 793 yards YFS (58 catches) and 5 TDs rushing/receiving.

I think that's probably as good a floor as any. I mean Sproles is a really special, not too many his size have succeeded at his level. Mack Herron back in the mid-70s. Probably a few others I am forgetting about. It's really, really rare.

60 catches, 800 YFS and 5 TDs would be a really good season for a guy that most people thought was headed for UDFA back in April.

So I guess his range is 60-80 catches, 800-1300 YFS, and 5-7 TDs. If he goes over 1K and scores 6 TDs, that's gonna make him a solid RB2 in PPR.

56 receptions, 924 YFS, 4 TDs at his current rate

After week 3 he looked like he was headed for the high end of this range, but now....not so much. Such a dynamic player, hope Fox...awww, forget it.

 

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Just now, Biabreakable said:

It wouldn't be a bad way to use him. Could threaten the jet sweep and also scheme Cohen open with motion.

I don't own any Bears this year so I haven't watched any All 22s on them - are they lining him up in the slot or WR? I can't believe he's only caught one pass four straight weeks. Why wouldn't you want to use this guy like Tavon Austin or Tyreek Hill?

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1 minute ago, BobbyLayne said:

I don't own any Bears this year so I haven't watched any All 22s on them - are they lining him up in the slot or WR? I can't believe he's only caught one pass four straight weeks. Why wouldn't you want to use this guy like Tavon Austin or Tyreek Hill?

I haven't seen the Bears since the Vikings game.

What I saw was a lot of multiple TE sets. Cohen got completely shut down in that game.

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18 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

So Cohen is going to block for Howard on the outside?

Honest question because I don't know. Is Gentry a really good blocker?

Fox needs to be more creative. That seems unlikely to happen.

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25 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

So Cohen is going to block for Howard on the outside?

Not in the traditional sense no but I'm sure teams would be more worried about him getting open/blowing past them if the play would be PA compared to one of the WRs so technically it would hold up that defender that much longer instead of having them able to load the box. There is no reason not to have both on the field at some point. I watched a saints game a couple weeks ago and it's crazy how they will run a play where basically brees looks downfield for a second, if no one is open he dumps it off the Ingram or kamara in the flat, why can't the bears do that, I actually think the preferred play is to get it to the rb and hope he picks up 5 yards or so but it also opens up the possiblity of a bigger play

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16 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Honest question because I don't know. Is Gentry a really good blocker?

Fox needs to be more creative. That seems unlikely to happen.

I don't know what the Bears are doing with their WR or why certain WR are playing.

I would assume the WR they are playing are good blockers as that is mostly what they are trying to do is run the ball with Howard.

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10 minutes ago, Bfrahm3 said:

Not in the traditional sense no but I'm sure teams would be more worried about him getting open/blowing past them if the play would be PA compared to one of the WRs so technically it would hold up that defender that much longer instead of having them able to load the box. There is no reason not to have both on the field at some point. I watched a saints game a couple weeks ago and it's crazy how they will run a play where basically brees looks downfield for a second, if no one is open he dumps it off the Ingram or kamara in the flat, why can't the bears do that, I actually think the preferred play is to get it to the rb and hope he picks up 5 yards or so but it also opens up the possiblity of a bigger play

Completely different because the Saints have finally gotten away from past tendencies. You do know based on personnel what they’re going to do - both Ingram and Kamara are in on pass downs, and both play on run downs.

The Bears think 3rd & 5 while losing is a run down. You’d think PapaBear Halas us the OC.

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If the Bears did decide to use Cohen as a WR more he would be taking snaps from slot guys Wright and Wheaton more than Inman and McBride I would think.

The Bears use a lot of TEs, Sims has played 69% of their snaps and Miller 61% but Miller is injured now so Shaheen should play more.

While I can see trying to play Cohen more as a good idea, I still don't really see how he fits when they likely want a player who can be used more as a blocker than they would use Cohen.

Gentry has played a ton of snaps for the Bears their last 3 games.. 95% 87% 97%

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Hate John Fox so much. I just read that Cunningham played 47% of the snaps (28-60). I understand if you don't give cohen chances because Howard is doing good and you wanna give him 75% of the snaps or so but to then have Cunningham in there almost half the time is absurd. Honestly have no idea why they haven't fired him yet.

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Had to make a decision this week between him and Damien Williams. One had to start, the other was getting dropped. I kept Williams and, as poorly as he looked last night, I still think I made the right decision.

Farewell, Tarik. In spite of the fact that I was initially skeptical and have now dumped you with no regrets, you gave me some decent weeks this year on a team that was severely lacking at RB2.

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Crazy thing is I listened to maybe 5 minutes of the bears game, heard Cohen had a nice play called back for a stupid penalty, then targeted but didn't catch it. 

Then crickets. 

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All fox. Just Google Tarik Cohen. Lots of reports of  local news asking what's up. Would be  like if NO suddenly barley used Kamara going forward.

 

https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/why-didnt-bears-rb-tarik-cohen-play-more-on-sunday/

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-bears/Bolt/Chicago-Bears-cant-explain-why-Tarik-Cohen-isnt-getting-more-snaps-110439438

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8 minutes ago, SameSongNDance said:

Cunningham played on 47% of the snaps last week, Howard 48% and Cohen 22%. 

Wow, that's a crazy stat. I would think Howard and Cohen would be out there way more than Cunningham. Is there something Cunningham brings to the table that the other guys don't?

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14 minutes ago, foxco said:

Wow, that's a crazy stat. I would think Howard and Cohen would be out there way more than Cunningham. Is there something Cunningham brings to the table that the other guys don't?

Versatility. He's a better pass catcher than Howard and is likely a better pass blocker than Cohen. When CHI is playing catch-up I'm guessing Fox feels comfortable with him in.

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  • 2 weeks later...
15 minutes ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

What will it take for the Bears' "brain trust" to realize Cohen is by far their best offensive weapon and game plan accordingly?

it is one of the biggest injustices in the NFL right now. It is like drafting a QB with the 1st or 2nd pick, and not having any OL in front of him. One can only hope CHicago can bring in a coach who can help this kid grow in the NFL

the highlight of his punt return against 9ers must have 90% of the coaches in the league salivating. Imagine a coach like Belicheck or Reid gets a guy like Cohen. and ths difference with Tarik vs. Hill, etc. is that Tarik is also solidly built, so the injury risk hasn't really been a huge concern

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  • 1 month later...

I like the Nagy hire for Tarik.  I realize he's not got the same straight line speed as Tyrek Hill but he's the guy Cohen has multiple times referenced as someone he is trying to pattern his game after, he thinks he can be that kind of player we mainly saw from Tyrek in the 2016 season.

I think anything other than Fox/Loggains was going to be an upgrade, but I liked this hire for him.

 

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

I like the Nagy hire for Tarik.  I realize he's not got the same straight line speed as Tyrek Hill but he's the guy Cohen has multiple times referenced as someone he is trying to pattern his game after, he thinks he can be that kind of player we mainly saw from Tyrek in the 2016 season.

I think anything other than Fox/Loggains was going to be an upgrade, but I liked this hire for him.

 

Should help Cohen's value.  If he plans to run a West Coast style offense then Cohen should do well.  As much as it seems the Bears lack talent I still feel there is plenty to work with.  There's potential but it needs some more key players and some good coaching.

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  • 1 month later...
  • 2 months later...

Bears coach Matt Nagy said he is "giddy" about Tarik Cohen.

The coach struggled to contain his excitement when talking about the sophomore playmaker. "He runs every route the right way. He catches most balls. He doesn't make a lot of mistakes," Nagy said. "He's a player that, for me, you get giddy about." Nagy had already promised to use Cohen all over the formation, and it does not sound like the running back has done anything to temper that excitement during the offseason program. If he stays healthy, Cohen should better his touch total (140) from a year ago. 

May 17 - 9:32 AM

Source: Bears.com

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  • 2 weeks later...

Tarik Cohen - RB - Bears

Bears coach Matt Nagy said he will "have some fun" utilizing Tarik Cohen.

This is at least the third time the new head coach has talked up Cohen this offseason. "You may look like you can run routes, but can you really run routes? He’s able to run routes," Nagy said. "You can’t just put him in the backfield and say to the middle linebacker, ‘Cover him.’ So we’ll try to do some things there. He’s an athletic kid who does a lot of things well." If coach chatter is to be believed, Cohen seems like a lock to better the 140 touches he saw as a rookie.

Source: Chicago Sun-Times

Jun 7 - 10:53 AM

 

https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/matt-nagy-bears-have-big-plans-for-tarik-cohen-well-have-some-fun-with-him/

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3 hours ago, Borden said:

Is he Tyreek Hill in Nagy’s Bears offense?

IMO, no.

He's shorter, slower, weaker, less explosive and pretty much a different player in most ways.

He will not be blowing by NFL DBs and running under passes. Although he certainly can juke and speed his way past NFL LBs. His strength is getting the ball in tight spaces and joysticking his way through traffic.

I think Nagy will have to be a lot more creative than just trying to plug Cohen into the Hill role.

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