Ilov80s
Footballguy
They haven’t had very many super talented outside WRs since Moss and Harry played a good amount of the a lot in college as well. He has run every route from every alignment possible in college.
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WR N'Keal Harry - CHI (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The whole "outside receivers don't do much in NE argument" falls short for a couple of reasons. Besides Moss, Cooks, and Hogan, Gordon was doing halfway decent before he had to pack it in. Brandon LaFell and Brandon Lloyd each had respectable seasons. But the Patriots also had Gronk for many of those years (and Hernandez for a few years as well).
If we look at the 2019 team, the current roster lost 151 receptions, 2266 receiving yards, and 12 receiving TD's from last year (assuming Gordon stays suspended). There's a lot of production that will be redistributed. Who knows how, what spots, whether it be allocated to inside or outside receivers, backs out of the backfield, etc. But there certainly is an opportunity for Harry to get a bunch of targets and put up some decent numbers in his rookie season (even if the team tends to run the ball the ball more than it used to).
FWIW, and I"ll leave the workout speed vs game speed argument to someone else, but he ran a 4.53 combine timed 40 and Dez had 3 attempts at his pro day and best time he ran was 4.52.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
And Pro Day speeds are historically faster than combine speed due to how they are timed.
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ZWK
Footballguy
The way I'd put it is that outside WR in NE has mostly followed the standard "talent wins out" rule. NE outside WRs have generally produced in proportion to their talent, with a smallish boost from playing in a good offense.Anarchy99 said:
The NE slot receiver has a huge role, which has gotten way more production than the same player would have on another team. The NE receiving back has also gotten a pretty big boost.
A year ago a lot of people were high on Hogan just because he was a NE WR, and that was a mistake because he's not that good and he also doesn't fit the high volume NE slot receiver role. But Harry might actually be good, and if he is then he should be able to get his.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Just getting caught up on an old thread, but this is why it's so hard to get these right. Separation is mostly about hand/eye/ball skills. The best are the masters of looking up at the last second or keep their hands down until the ball is there. DB's don't watch for the ball, they watch the WR for queues. The best WR wait until the DB's reaction is too late to make their move, slightly shift their route trajectory, or slightly accelerate into the ball. They don't need separation because they have mastered the timing. AJG is an artist this way and the one in this class Iike the most is Harmon.
The problem, besides it being a learned skill, is they haven't figured out a combine drill to test this. The gauntlet is the closest, stressing their ability to pick the ball up with little reaction time, but listen to the coaches during the WR drills if you ever get a chance - they must say a million times "don't look up, run run run" as they are running deep routes.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I just think WR is a real diverse position spanning from Kelvin Benjamin to Marquise Brown with 8 inch height range, 80 pound weight range and 4.7-4.3 speed. There’s more than one way to be deployed and more than one way to win. Not being able to separate or not being quick or not being straight line fast aren’t total disqualifiers.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The other issue is many times more marquee players draw more coverage and thus may not see much separation . . . while other less talented players may not see premiere defenders or may get single coverage from a LB and the number might make it appear that that player gets a lot of separation. Bottom line, the numbers don't often tell the entire story.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
That is part of it but from what I have heard many teams don’t move their CBs and actual double teams are pretty rare. Ultimately I agree with you’re assessment that the next gen stats don’t tell everything.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Problem is that being a "great Patriot" doesn't translate to fantasy production sometimes. I'm scared to draft him at 1.02 in one my leagues.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Where would you rank Harry in relation to last year's rookie WR's (Sutton, Ridley, Moore, Miller, etc)? Anyone else concerned that his QB will be 42 years old with declining metrics?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I have him as number 1 clearly but I do think the Pats QB situation is a concern.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Certainly Brady can’t be superhuman, but did his metrics really decline that much? His receiving options weren’t much to write home about. Edelman started the year suspended. Gronk was banged up. Gordon had to learn the playbook on the fly and got suspended. Dorsett and Hogan are better situational guys than primary contributors. Brady hurt his knee and didn’t look great for a month. His overall numbers weren’t that far off from his normal totals, but the difference was a lot of QBs produced more with the crazy passing totals. I think another concern would be NE relying more on the run.
Mans to state the obvious. Harry will be around longer than Brady, so some of the worry over Brady is a short term issue.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
No, his metrics have not declined much but he has shown a drop 2 years running in comp%, TD%, Y/A, Y/C, QB rating, and a rise in INT%. Small drops for sure, but will a 42 year old QB reverse those trends and when will that slope become steeper? And if you're not looking to plug Harry into your starting lineup immediately, you're hoping a 43 year old QB can continue at the current pace.
Not suggesting its prohibitive, but a concern in a vacuum between Harry and other options - especially if you're considering him for pick 1.01/1.02.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Not to pick nits, but if you watched the Patriots games last year, the huge majority of Brady's interceptions hit his receivers in the hands, they botched the catch, and the balls were picked off. There were a few true picks, but most of them were drops that got deflected right to defenders. So sure, his true metrics and cumulative statistics may have been slightly worse, but his overall game was still solid. He was the #4 ranked QB on the year according to PFF.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Thanks, and I only saw maybe 2 or 3 Pats games last year. I asked the question because while the landing spot for Harry was generally applauded, I wasn't so sure. Harry will enter the league the 7th oldest QB to ever play in the NFL and to me that could be a concern when comparing options at 1.01. We're generally looking a few years out and you gotta wonder what the situation will be like with a 43, 44 year old QB. Like you said, he's not superhuman and we know the decline often comes quickly in the NFL.
Again, not saying its a prohibitive issue but a concern nonetheless when weighing options at 1.01/1.02. All that said, he may still end up being my 1.01.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
I've been re-watching N'Keal Harry highlights. I think his future is bright. Seems to straddle the mismatch spectrum perfectly between safeties and cornerbacks.
Gandalf
Footballguy
It might seem like a strange comp but in the open field he reminds me of Le’Veon Bell in terms of his moves and ability to lose defenders
TripItUp
Footballguy
For redraft/best ball purposes I have a hard time drafting Harry because A) I think they'll slowly phase him in due to complex system and B) Pats passing game takes a back seat once the cold weather hits. So what exactly will be Harry's opportunity to impact ff in his rookie year?
I do like his long term prospects and I suspect he'd be a great buy low AFTER year one.
I do like his long term prospects and I suspect he'd be a great buy low AFTER year one.
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Mister CIA
Footballguy
No such thing as a buy-low next year. That's not how highly drafted fantasy players go in dynasty leagues.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Buy low in a redraft is a foreign concept to me. Is that something like a sneaky selection?
matuski
Footballguy
I am happy to help.
The concept revolves around the idea that you buy before they blow up. This way you buy low, as opposed to high.
TripItUp
Footballguy
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I repaired Mel and myself up a couple of three-way vodka mixed drinks and also we wandered around my bro's big house. He had an industrial landscape design organisation and also did quite possibly. The hardwood floors carried the audio all over, though, and it was grating on our nerves a bit. Not having youngsters, we weren't utilized to this type of constant commotion.
I nodded my head in the direction of the stairs. Along with the numerous bedrooms, Robert had a research up there that was open to the downstairs location. I figured we might hang out up there in loved one tranquility while still having the ability to keep an ear out for more busted legs, and so on. I complied with Mel up the staircases, viewing her butt persuade every step of of the way. She gave me some added jiggle, she understands me rather damn well.
We sat in the large comfy chairs and also enjoyed our drinks, and also Mel continued her tale of exactly how her large busts obtained her in difficulty in senior high school.
" So, like I was claiming, I'm standing there in my wet t-shirt, rather unaware to the situation. All of a sudden, the children all quit as well as just stared at me, at my chest. I was like, 'What?' you know? After that they laughed as well as the ladies got mad at me, as well as I overlooked and also my nipples are attempting to poke out of my shirt. Tommy, my crush, came by to me as well as claimed 'let's obtain you into something else'. We went inside Brooke's home where I believed he was mosting likely to help me. Rather, he just lifted up my t shirt and also ordered my boobs and also--".
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matuski
Footballguy
Right, so you get him before he blows up. This way you get him low, as opposed to high.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
People are drafting for redraft leagues now?
matuski
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Then I'm not clear on what you mean about buying low as opposed to high.
Are you saying draft him earlier in a redraft that you'd normally think you should?
matuski
Footballguy
Are people really finding it to be a foreign concept that a player's value (most players' in fact) can change throughout a single season?
That you can buy low and sell high? The draft, ~10-12 weeks of trading, 16 weeks of FA bidding?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Yes, not your standard fare local league of course but other then best ball leagues you got stuff like FFPC/FBG players championship with grand prize of $250K and RTS leagues with grand prize of $200K which started drafting a few weeks ago.
