Dynasty & Redraft: RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts

[Faust 5,618]

Quote

Jonathan Taylor rushed 16 times for 83 yards and a touchdown in the Colts' Week 15 win over the Texans, adding four receptions for 12 additional receptions. 

Fantasy managers will always take 95 yards and a score, but it was disappointing in the context of Taylor popping off for 31 yards and his touchdown on the Colts' opening drive. For whatever reason, he received "just" 15 touches the rest of the way even though Jordan Wilkins didn't handle the ball. Nyheim Hines mixed in for 7/54. Despite the "what might have been?" feeling, Taylor is now averaging 127 yards from scrimmage with four total touchdowns over his past four appearances. He is playing a gear faster, and looking dangerous at the point of attack. He will remain a locked-in RB1 for Week 16 against the Steelers.  

Dec 20, 2020, 5:11 PM ET

 

 

[humpback 1,174]

Indy is now 7-0 when Taylor has 13 or more carries.

[Banger 5,529]

1 hour ago, humpback said:

Indy is now 7-0 when Taylor has 13 or more carries.

one more week!  how's Pitt's run defense?  I know their pass rush is killer.  

[Zyphros 2,029]

1 hour ago, humpback said:

Indy is now 7-0 when Taylor has 13 or more carries.

Can’t wait for them to be down 20 and say “JT doesn’t have 13 yet, once we get there we’ll win”

[Synthesizer 508]

59 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Can’t wait for them to be down 20 and say “JT doesn’t have 13 yet, once we get there we’ll win”

Twice this year they have been down pretty big, but continued to give Taylor carries.....

Indy down 21-7 to Green Bay and Taylor had 3 carries to that point.  Indy gave Taylor 19 more carries, and came back to win the game.
Indy down 21-0 to Cincy and Taylor had 2 carries to that point.  Indy gave Taylor 10 more carries, and came back to win the game (This only totals 12 carries, but still impressive to stick with the run when down 3 touchdowns)

[humpback 1,174]

1 hour ago, Banger said:

one more week!  how's Pitt's run defense?  I know their pass rush is killer.  

They're legit, although they have lost a few good defenders. Will be interesting to see if they stick with Taylor if he doesn't get off to a "hot" start like he has recently.

 

[rockaction 26,100]

Taylor is RB9 for the year in my league (half PPR for running backs). That's something people should be puffing their chests out about when talking about having drafted him and rostering him in his first year.

[Biabreakable 5,179]

4 hours ago, rockaction said:

Taylor is RB9 for the year in my league (half PPR for running backs). That's something people should be puffing their chests out about when talking about having drafted him and rostering him in his first year.

I see him as 10th in standard scoring and 11th in PPR right now.

I think he has been better as a receiver than most would expect. Maybe Rivers deserves a lot of credit for that.

Taylor had 70% of the offensive snaps in the most recent game and Wilkins had none. I guess I can't complain about them not playing Taylor enough anymore.

[rockaction 26,100]

22 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I see him as 10th in standard scoring and 11th in PPR right now.

I think he has been better as a receiver than most would expect. Maybe Rivers deserves a lot of credit for that.

Taylor had 70% of the offensive snaps in the most recent game and Wilkins had none. I guess I can't complain about them not playing Taylor enough anymore.

Funny how the half PPR could conceivably put him ahead (ours is standard but with .5 for catches plus any return yardage which I'm unaware of for him) of where he is in those leagues.

Yeah, he's dominating snaps. Good for people that were counting on him in dynasty. That's quite an immediate return on investment. 

[Biabreakable 5,179]

2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Funny how the half PPR could conceivably put him ahead (ours is standard but with .5 for catches plus any return yardage which I'm unaware of for him) of where he is in those leagues.

Yeah, he's dominating snaps. Good for people that were counting on him in dynasty. That's quite an immediate return on investment. 

Yeah. Maybe fumbles or something as a difference? Not sure how that happens.

[rockaction 26,100]

12 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Yeah. Maybe fumbles or something as a difference? Not sure how that happens.

No, it's likely that half part of the PPR that puts him below some in true PPR and the no points putting him below some yardage accruals in non-PPR. Definitely mathematically possible.

[Biabreakable 5,179]

2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

No, it's likely that half part of the PPR that puts him below some in true PPR and the no points putting him below some yardage accruals in non-PPR. Definitely mathematically possible.

Its top 12 and its his rookie season. Those are things that matter to me.

[rockaction 26,100]

1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

Its top 12 and its his rookie season. Those are things that matter to me.

Exactly. Couldn't agree more.

[Zyphros 2,029]

9 hours ago, Synthesizer said:

Twice this year they have been down pretty big, but continued to give Taylor carries.....

Indy down 21-7 to Green Bay and Taylor had 3 carries to that point.  Indy gave Taylor 19 more carries, and came back to win the game.
Indy down 21-0 to Cincy and Taylor had 2 carries to that point.  Indy gave Taylor 10 more carries, and came back to win the game (This only totals 12 carries, but still impressive to stick with the run when down 3 touchdowns)

Good for them on comebacks. The point is that some arbitrary number of carries is a useless thing to point out to why they win/lose. 

[humpback 1,174]

3 hours ago, rockaction said:

Funny how the half PPR could conceivably put him ahead (ours is standard but with .5 for catches plus any return yardage which I'm unaware of for him) of where he is in those leagues.

Yeah, he's dominating snaps. Good for people that were counting on him in dynasty. That's quite an immediate return on investment. 

Is it though? These last few weeks have been great to see, but it certainly doesn't seem like he's gained much value this year.

[rockaction 26,100]

1 hour ago, humpback said:

Is it though? These last few weeks have been great to see, but it certainly doesn't seem like he's gained much value this year.

Yeah, I get your point, but I thought people were expecting him to really take over fully next year with Mack getting plenty of run this year. As it was, he had difficulty taking over in a muddied backfield situation, which was worrisome, but I don't think it dents his value any, that's for sure.

I guess I look at it relatively, too. Who stayed at constant ROI? Edwards-Helaire? No way. Dobbins? I guess. Swift? Yes. Akers? Probably not.

So when you look at the comparable backs, it would seem everybody was inflated off the jump. A bubble, if you will. All besides the pre-draft consensus 1A and 1B, Swift and Taylor. 

[humpback 1,174]

16 hours ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, I get your point, but I thought people were expecting him to really take over fully next year with Mack getting plenty of run this year. As it was, he had difficulty taking over in a muddied backfield situation, which was worrisome, but I don't think it dents his value any, that's for sure.

I guess I look at it relatively, too. Who stayed at constant ROI? Edwards-Helaire? No way. Dobbins? I guess. Swift? Yes. Akers? Probably not.

So when you look at the comparable backs, it would seem everybody was inflated off the jump. A bubble, if you will. All besides the pre-draft consensus 1A and 1B, Swift and Taylor. 

Yeah, I guess it depends on your perspective. These guys were drafted highly despite everyone knowing their situations, most were expected to share for a while at least. Taylor got a nice bump in value when Mack went down for the year in week 1 and he got a huge workload in week 2, but then his value steadily dropped over the next ~2 months. I think the last few games have gotten him probably back around his pre-season spot, maybe a bit higher, but not back to his peak around weeks 2/3 IMO.

I think most of the top RB prospects followed a similar path (other than CEH)- lot's of hype initially, then a bit of a letdown, then back up towards the end of the season. I really think the crazy offseason impacted them more than expected.

Edited December 22, 2020 by humpback

[Payne 568]

Said it before and I'll say it again, Reich overthinks it. He once again went away from Taylor and another loss followed. Unless I missed something, that's unacceptable. 

[kerpow 16]

57 minutes ago, Payne said:

Said it before and I'll say it again, Reich overthinks it. He once again went away from Taylor and another loss followed. Unless I missed something, that's unacceptable. 

Sadly, as a Colts fan, I have to agree. The drive that started on the Colts 5, after that great goal-line stand, was all Taylor and the Steelers came back and scored. But after that, Rivers was forcing the ball when Taylor could have slowed the game down. 

[humpback 1,174]

2 hours ago, Payne said:

Said it before and I'll say it again, Reich overthinks it. He once again went away from Taylor and another loss followed. Unless I missed something, that's unacceptable. 

Taylor had 13 carries (and 2 TDs) in the 1st half, only 5 carries in the 2nd despite having the lead until mid way through the 4th qtr. He had 1 carry in their final 3 drives.

So dumb.

[ConnSKINS26 5,717]

8 hours ago, Payne said:

Said it before and I'll say it again, Reich overthinks it. He once again went away from Taylor and another loss followed. Unless I missed something, that's unacceptable. 

Same thing I thought. They went away from him again, got pass happy, and lost. It was very foreseeable and it makes me wonder when they’ll learn. He’s finally got his feet underneath him and hit his stride, but they will not ride him to victory every week, or at least attempt to.

[Synthesizer 508]

The team completely imploded in the 2nd half.  Once the team got up 24-7, here are the next 3 drives:

3-and-out.  J.Taylor had 1 carry for -1 yard.  Punt followed by Pittsburgh TD.
3-and-out.  3 straight passes.  Punt followed by Pittsburgh TD.
5-play-drive.  J.Taylor had 1 carry for 1 yard.  Punt followed by Pittsburgh TD.

Yeah they got a little cute with the passes, but they only ran 11 plays total during that span.  Then they were trailing late in the 4th and went with Hines.

[humpback 1,174]

2 hours ago, Synthesizer said:

The team completely imploded in the 2nd half.  Once the team got up 24-7, here are the next 3 drives:

3-and-out.  J.Taylor had 1 carry for -1 yard.  Punt followed by Pittsburgh TD.
3-and-out.  3 straight passes.  Punt followed by Pittsburgh TD.
5-play-drive.  J.Taylor had 1 carry for 1 yard.  Punt followed by Pittsburgh TD.

Yeah they got a little cute with the passes, but they only ran 11 plays total during that span.  Then they were trailing late in the 4th and went with Hines.

Yes, but part of the reason for the implosion and only running 11 plays is because they went away from the run game. The first 3 and out was after a goal line stand and they were backed up to their own end zone so that's understandable, but the next one they began with a play action pass that resulted in an 8 yard sack which essentially guaranteed the 3 and out. Rivers took another sack on their next drive, and threw a pick on the following one.

Indy led the entire game up until mid way through the 4th qtr. and never trailed by more than 4 pts.- Taylor's lack of usage in the 2nd half was much more about poor play calling than it was game script.

[travdogg 2,999]

1 hour ago, humpback said:

Yes, but part of the reason for the implosion and only running 11 plays is because they went away from the run game. The first 3 and out was after a goal line stand and they were backed up to their own end zone so that's understandable, but the next one they began with a play action pass that resulted in an 8 yard sack which essentially guaranteed the 3 and out. Rivers took another sack on their next drive, and threw a pick on the following one.

Indy led the entire game up until mid way through the 4th qtr. and never trailed by more than 4 pts.- Taylor's lack of usage in the 2nd half was much more about poor play calling than it was game script.

According to Reich, he was calling runs, and Rivers was changing the plays at the line.

[Synthesizer 508]

1 hour ago, humpback said:

Yes, but part of the reason for the implosion and only running 11 plays is because they went away from the run game. The first 3 and out was after a goal line stand and they were backed up to their own end zone so that's understandable, but the next one they began with a play action pass that resulted in an 8 yard sack which essentially guaranteed the 3 and out. Rivers took another sack on their next drive, and threw a pick on the following one.

Indy led the entire game up until mid way through the 4th qtr. and never trailed by more than 4 pts.- Taylor's lack of usage in the 2nd half was much more about poor play calling than it was game script.

First drive.  First and 10.  Carry by J.Taylor for -1 yard.  Didn’t get a first down.

Third drive.  First and 10.  Carry by J.Taylor for 1 yard.  Didn’t get a first down.

So the running game was also part of the reason those 2 drives failed.  Agree that the passing game was awful on all 3 drives.

[humpback 1,174]

27 minutes ago, Synthesizer said:

First drive.  First and 10.  Carry by J.Taylor for -1 yard.  Didn’t get a first down.

Third drive.  First and 10.  Carry by J.Taylor for 1 yard.  Didn’t get a first down.

So the running game was also part of the reason those 2 drives failed.  Agree that the passing game was awful on all 3 drives.

On their very first drive of the game Taylor lost 2 yards on 1st and goal from the 4, then an incompletion, then they gave him the carry again and he powered in for the TD. Not every carry is going to result in a first down, but you don't abandon it, you keep trying (especially when it's working overall).

That first drive you listed started from their 2 yd. line, so running into a pile that knows it's coming generally doesn't result in success. Again, we can throw that drive out due to the unusual circumstances.

The 2nd drive, while still up 10 points, had zero runs and resulted in a 3 and out. Dumb.

The 3rd drive, while still up by 3, had 1 run vs. 4 pass attempts (ended with a sack). Dumb.

You left out the 4th drive, down by 4 but with 7 1/2 minutes left, which was a pass, run by Hines, then an INT. Dumb.

Final drive was classic Rivers dink and dunk with Hines. Not a huge argument here, although Taylor has shown to be very good as a receiver as well (they foolishly only targeted him once this week).

Much more blame lies with the play calling and Rivers than Taylor for this L IMO.

[ConnSKINS26 5,717]

Congratulations to all the dynasty believers who didn’t panic sell, we’re now holding an offseason gold mine. Ends the regular season with 240+ yards and two TDs in week 17, hell of a game.

[ffmail4me 914]

Trade Henry for Taylor and JuJu after week 12 and finally feeling okay with it.  

[The Future Champs 2,638]

On 11/12/2020 at 8:04 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

Drafted him everywhere. Divested of him everywhere.

Whew!

Bumpity

[Dez 1,101]

Hard to believe at 1 point Taylor looked like a huge bust for redraft.  In the end Taylor was a monster for the fantasy playoffs but all of my Taylor teams did not make it to the playoffs.  It's hard when your 4th round pick does almost nothing for your in the 11 or 12 week regular season for the high stakes sites.  For those that survived the regular season he sure was gold.  Remember midseason when Wilkins went off people started going nuts bidding huge on Wilkins which turned out to be a complete waste.

[Truebluey 485]

On 10/9/2020 at 9:35 AM, DocHolliday said:

The Colts are stating that Taylor isn’t going to get a big workload in order to keep him fresh and because the other two backs are talented.   Owning a RB that is currently part of a three headed committee is not favorable.   

Keeping him "fresh" certainly seemed to work out for them. 

[DocHolliday 4,181]

38 minutes ago, Truebluey said:

Keeping him "fresh" certainly seemed to work out for them. 

Worked out well for them and any FF owners that survived the lean weeks mid-season.   My team did not.   

[The Frankman 3,371]

Quote

Jonathan Taylor rushed 30 times for 253 yards and two touchdowns in the Colts' Week 17 win over the Jaguars.

It's safe to say Taylor has turned a corner. After a very slow start in a shotgun-based offense, Taylor exploded coming out of the Colts' bye as their clear-cut grinder between the tackles. He ultimately rushed for 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns as a rookie thanks to a massive month of December. Taylor's 92% catch rate on 39 targets is going overlooked, too. The Colts certainly have the back of their future and could rely on him against the Bills' Cover 2 defense in the Wild Card Round.

- Rotoworld

Funny what getting acclimated to NFL speed and being decisive will do to an NFL rookie.

Edited January 4 by The Frankman

[rockaction 26,100]

On 12/28/2020 at 11:43 AM, travdogg said:

According to Reich, he was calling runs, and Rivers was changing the plays at the line.

I think that's why they pointed out today at the beginning of the second half that Reich is scripting those plays now. I immediately thought it must be because Reich doesn't trust the plays Rivers is calling at the line and it turns out that is indeed the reason.

And Taylor beasted today against a weak JAX team. Oh my.

Edited January 4 by rockaction

[rockaction 26,100]

Whoops. Wrong thread.

Edited January 4 by rockaction

[RushHour 802]

I'm old enough to remember when he was a massive bust and Trent Richardson comparisons were getting thrown around. Honestly, the dynasty take/reaction whiplash week to week is kind of ridiculous sometimes. 

[rockaction 26,100]

2 minutes ago, RushHour said:

I'm old enough to remember when he was a massive bust and Trent Richardson comparisons were getting thrown around. Honestly, the dynasty take/reaction whiplash week to week is kind of ridiculous sometimes. 

[humpback 1,174]

1 hour ago, Truebluey said:

Keeping him "fresh" certainly seemed to work out for them. 

They almost missed the playoffs and will probably lose next weekend in the first round. I'd argue that they waited too long to "unleash the beast".

[Andy Dufresne 12,764]

2 hours ago, The Future Champs said:

Bumpity

Yeeeaah...I'm having twinges of regret. 

[Andy Dufresne 12,764]

23 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Yeeeaah...I'm having twinges of regret. 

Although, the trades netted Chubb twice and the #2 pick once, so not so bad.

But still. Glad to see him do well.

Edited January 4 by Andy Dufresne

[Sir Psycho 51]

On 11/12/2020 at 3:05 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

2020 Taylor = 2019 Montgomery

Sell if you can.

Keeping Taylor and Montgomery = 2021 League winner !

[Andy Dufresne 12,764]

30 minutes ago, Sir Psycho said:

Keeping Taylor and Montgomery = 2021 League winner !

Yes & no. If you were able to get to the playoffs with them on your roster the whole season - in other words if they didn't cost you wins earlier in the season...then yes.

[Sir Psycho 51]

Quote

7 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Yes & no. If you were able to get to the playoffs with them on your roster the whole season - in other words if they didn't cost you wins earlier in the season...then yes.

Yeah I was talking for next season but it was too little too late for this season.

 

[zeeshan2 359]

Took him everywhere I could including early in startups and even traded Kamara with one year remaining vs Taylor's max limit up to 5 in a salary cap league and I feel great about it

[Synthesizer 508]

1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Yes & no. If you were able to get to the playoffs with them on your roster the whole season - in other words if they didn't cost you wins earlier in the season...then yes.

Well here are the RBs that were being drafted immediately before Taylor and Montgomery, so I'm going to assume you had a better chance at the playoff than most of these teams.....

RB 12 - M.Sanders
RB 13 - A.Ekeler
RB 14 - K.Drake
RB 15 - J.Conner
RB 16 - C.Carson
RB 17 - R.Mostert
RB 18 - D.Johnson
RB 19 - L.Bell
RB 20 - T.Gurley
RB 21 - M.Ingram
RB 22 - M.Gordon

[Payne 568]

15 hours ago, The Frankman said:

Funny what getting acclimated to NFL speed and being decisive will do to an NFL rookie.

Or having the bulk of the carries and getting into a rhythm. These carries should have happened sooner. 

[tangfoot 2,065]

Let's not sprain our shoulders patting ourselves on the back here.  Remeber that this is a Jacksonville team that regularly gives up 480 yards and 6 touchdowns to Travis Henry every year.

[humpback 1,174]

12 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Let's not sprain our shoulders patting ourselves on the back here.  Remeber that this is a Jacksonville team that regularly gives up 480 yards and 6 touchdowns to Travis Henry every year.

Actually, Henry regularly has had 1 great game and 1 dud against Jax each year, and he's never had as many yards against them as Taylor did yesterday. Also, it's not just about this game, he's been great for several weeks in a row now (since they finally started using him like a bellcow).

That said, if you're argument is that he's only as good as Henry, I think we can go back to spraining our shoulders.

[Pipes 2,802]

15 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Let's not sprain our shoulders patting ourselves on the back here.  Remeber that this is a Jacksonville team that regularly gives up 480 yards and 6 touchdowns to Travis Henry every year.

And Henry's the gold standard so the fact you can mention Taylor in the same sentence as Henry is promising.  He's not the 2nd coming nor is he a bust like numerous people proclaimed a month or two ago.  Those that were patient and held looks like they have a very good back for the foreseeable future. 

[DocHolliday 4,181]

12 minutes ago, Pipes said:

And Henry's the gold standard so the fact you can mention Taylor in the same sentence as Henry is promising.  He's not the 2nd coming nor is he a bust like numerous people proclaimed a month or two ago.  Those that were patient and held looks like they have a very good back for the foreseeable future. 

Well said.