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TE Robert Tonyan, CHI (1 Viewer)

Snorkelson said:
No, but he’s not getting any respect, like Waller last year.
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No one seems to believe in this guy. Shopped him in a TE premium league and no interest at all, and this was before the Rodgers drama. Think many believe his TDs were a fluke and he has no shot at repeating. 

 
foxco said:
No one seems to believe in this guy. Shopped him in a TE premium league and no interest at all, and this was before the Rodgers drama. Think many believe his TDs were a fluke and he has no shot at repeating. 
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I did as well (te prem) and had no interest, so I traded Waller instead (also have kelce). Waller/1.09/marquis brown for cmc/gage. 

 
foxco said:
No one seems to believe in this guy. Shopped him in a TE premium league and no interest at all, and this was before the Rodgers drama. Think many believe his TDs were a fluke and he has no shot at repeating. 
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Since 1992, there have been two pass catchers with double digits in TDs and less than 60 catches - Gronk in his rookie year and Tonyan last year.

Every TE who caught 8 or more TDs in a season 2014-20 (23, not a small sample size), 100% had major TD regression, with an average of 5 less.

He's a talented guy and if they do involve him more in the passing game, but I don't think anyone who has looked at those numbers think (I'm in redraft so different mindset) "well here's a set it and forget pick." You're gonna be working the waiver wire and looking for a backup TE to spot start.

He's also a Mark Andrews clone in usage with around 60% of the snap count.

He's an intriguing player. If he truly has earned Rodgers trust (and presuming 12 comes back) then maybe he takes on a role as the second target behind Adams. Maybe he becomes the TE version of James Jones. Maybe he becomes the next TE to step up and be in the top  half of TE1s. He finished last year as TE3, though of course there was a huge 74 point gap to TE2 (Kittle missed half the year) and Hock was dinged up the last 3 weeks and had little production.

Interesting, athletic guy, but there is definitely risk there.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Since 1992, there have been two pass catchers with double digits in TDs and less than 60 catches - Gronk in his rookie year and Tonyan last year.

Every TE who caught 8 or more TDs in a season 2014-20 (23, not a small sample size), 100% had major TD regression, with an average of 5 less.

He's a talented guy and if they do involve him more in the passing game, but I don't think anyone who has looked at those numbers think (I'm in redraft so different mindset) "well here's a set it and forget pick." You're gonna be working the waiver wire and looking for a backup TE to spot start.

He's also a Mark Andrews clone in usage with around 60% of the snap count.

He's an intriguing player. If he truly has earned Rodgers trust (and presuming 12 comes back) then maybe he takes on a role as the second target behind Adams. Maybe he becomes the TE version of James Jones. Maybe he becomes the next TE to step up and be in the top  half of TE1s. He finished last year as TE3, though of course there was a huge 74 point gap to TE2 (Kittle missed half the year) and Hock was dinged up the last 3 weeks and had little production.

Interesting, athletic guy, but there is definitely risk there.
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You can’t count on him to set and forget, but there isn’t anyone on that team that will steal targets in the red zone. If Love is the starter, I’ll expect a fair amount of checkdowns. I’d have to look at his adp, but if you take him you can probably snag an engram/Trautman/irv smith later and have a backup plan. He is one of the te 5-20 guys, big group there, but probably more reliable to finish in the top 10 than others. 

 
Snorkelson said:
You can’t count on him to set and forget, but there isn’t anyone on that team that will steal targets in the red zone. If Love is the starter, I’ll expect a fair amount of checkdowns. I’d have to look at his adp, but if you take him you can probably snag an engram/Trautman/irv smith later and have a backup plan. He is one of the te 5-20 guys, big group there, but probably more reliable to finish in the top 10 than others. 
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Yeah I like him if I wait on TE which I'm inclined to do this year. I never know what my strategy is gonna be on redraft day bc you need to be flexible and respond to what your leaguemates are doing, but generally speaking, in our format I like the roster construction of waiting on both QB and TE. For the former I'm looking at the QB11-13 group (Tannehill-Staff-Burrow) and by the time I'm taking TEs I usually have 8 RBs & Rbs, so basically like Higbee-Tonyan-Irv Smith-Gesicki 10-13 grouping. I don't know that I'll be drafting a backup TE (18 rounds) bc guys emerge on the wire every year.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Yeah I like him if I wait on TE which I'm inclined to do this year. I never know what my strategy is gonna be on redraft day bc you need to be flexible and respond to what your leaguemates are doing, but generally speaking, in our format I like the roster construction of waiting on both QB and TE. For the former I'm looking at the QB11-13 group (Tannehill-Staff-Burrow) and by the time I'm taking TEs I usually have 8 RBs & Rbs, so basically like Higbee-Tonyan-Irv Smith-Gesicki 10-13 grouping. I don't know that I'll be drafting a backup TE (18 rounds) bc guys emerge on the wire every year.
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Think you said it in the lions thread, hock 120 targets, spend the pick…

 
Snorkelson said:
Think you said it in the lions thread, hock 120 targets, spend the pick…
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At 23 going his 3rd season he’s the longest tenured skill position player on the team lol 😂 

For sure though, who knows, come draft day I might pick up Hock in the 5th. We’ll see how it plays out, and we don’t set the draft order for 6 more weeks so I’m mocking everyone slot.

Hock is one of five set or n forget it TE picks rn. Tonyan is another productive year away from earning that, hasn’t shown enough volume up to now.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Since 1992, there have been two pass catchers with double digits in TDs and less than 60 catches - Gronk in his rookie year and Tonyan last year.

Every TE who caught 8 or more TDs in a season 2014-20 (23, not a small sample size), 100% had major TD regression, with an average of 5 less.

He's a talented guy and if they do involve him more in the passing game, but I don't think anyone who has looked at those numbers think (I'm in redraft so different mindset) "well here's a set it and forget pick." You're gonna be working the waiver wire and looking for a backup TE to spot start.

He's also a Mark Andrews clone in usage with around 60% of the snap count.

He's an intriguing player. If he truly has earned Rodgers trust (and presuming 12 comes back) then maybe he takes on a role as the second target behind Adams. Maybe he becomes the TE version of James Jones. Maybe he becomes the next TE to step up and be in the top  half of TE1s. He finished last year as TE3, though of course there was a huge 74 point gap to TE2 (Kittle missed half the year) and Hock was dinged up the last 3 weeks and had little production.

Interesting, athletic guy, but there is definitely risk there.
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I was thinking about but failed to mention when we were discussing Aaron Jones TD regression from 2019 to 2020 that this also coincided with Tonyan scoring many TD in 2020 as well. That is where those TD went.

Looking at Rodgers and Favres careers they have a tendency to throw in the red zone more than most teams and Aaron Jones having so many TD in 2019 is the anomaly to this. Maybe there was another season or two of Ahmed Green scoring a lot of TD but generally their RBs haven't scored that much often.

I haven't looked at the numbers to back this up, but I would guess that the TD percentage scored by RB is at least below average compared to other teams but less noticeable because their offense has scored more TD than most offenses most seasons.

Maybe throw all that out the window if Rodgers isn't playing for the Packers in 2021 but that is my observation of them over the years.

 
Biabreakable said:
I was thinking about but failed to mention when we were discussing Aaron Jones TD regression from 2019 to 2020 that this also coincided with Tonyan scoring many TD in 2020 as well. That is where those TD went.

Looking at Rodgers and Favres careers they have a tendency to throw in the red zone more than most teams and Aaron Jones having so many TD in 2019 is the anomaly to this. Maybe there was another season or two of Ahmed Green scoring a lot of TD but generally their RBs haven't scored that much often.

I haven't looked at the numbers to back this up, but I would guess that the TD percentage scored by RB is at least below average compared to other teams but less noticeable because their offense has scored more TD than most offenses most seasons.

Maybe throw all that out the window if Rodgers isn't playing for the Packers in 2021 but that is my observation of them over the years.
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NFL 2020 RZ targets

Tonyan had a 90.9% completion rate on his RZ targets. The only comparable % are good pass catching backs (Edmonds, Eckler, James Robinson.) Nobody comes close to his TD % (7/11.)

Regression inbound.

He’s gonna need a 150% of his 2020 targets to justify his ranking/ADP. That’s not insane - we’re only talking about going from 3.5 targets to little over 5 and he’ll be at 85+. That’s where you generally need to be at to be in the TE1 conversation. I simply prefer have already done it guys over the might do it ones.

 
BobbyLayne said:
NFL 2020 RZ targets

Tonyan had a 90.9% completion rate on his RZ targets. The only comparable % are good pass catching backs (Edmonds, Eckler, James Robinson.) Nobody comes close to his TD % (7/11.)

Regression inbound.

He’s gonna need a 150% of his 2020 targets to justify his ranking/ADP. That’s not insane - we’re only talking about going from 3.5 targets to little over 5 and he’ll be at 85+. That’s where you generally need to be at to be in the TE1 conversation. I simply prefer have already done it guys over the might do it ones.
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Oh yeah thats not happening again.

 
Got him in the 8th. Might have been able to wait another round or two but felt he was good enough there. 

 
Tonyan is worst case scenario for me at TE as I'm concerned about his volume.

My typical strategy is to land Logan Thomas slightly ahead of ADP.

 
NFL Week 1 fantasy football questions and answers: 32 reporters give advice on Julio Jones, Ravens running backs, more

Excerpt:

Will Robert Tonyan see more targets following an impressive 2020?

A strong case could be made that Tonyan is Aaron Rodgers' second-favorite target. And why not, considering he never drops the ball (OK, he dropped one once). Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Aaron Jones had slightly more targets than Tonyan did last season. All of them were way behind Davante Adams, but if teams put even more effort into slowing down Adams, Tonyan could certainly benefit. But after catching 11 TDs last season, Tonyan won't take anyone by surprise this year. -- Rob Demovsky
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Robert Tonyan caught 2-of-4 targets for eight yards in the Packers' Week 1 loss to the Saints. 

No one -- including Devante Adams -- could survive the Packers' disastrous offensive showing. Tonyan operated as the team's primary pass catching tight end, but like most tight ends in fantasy, he'll be touchdown dependent even if the Green Bay offense gets right. Tonyan should remain in lineups next week against Detroit. Tonyan had seven catches and two touchdowns in two meetings against the Lions last year.
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Some great analysis above by @BobbyLayne and others which I'm reading for the first time. This week will help me determine if he's droppable, although overreaction vs the Lion's defense will be a year long challenge. Rodgers did go to him deep on a 4th and 3 when the game was only 17-3, and got a defensive PI. 

 
SoBeDad said:
Some great analysis above by @BobbyLayne and others which I'm reading for the first time. This week will help me determine if he's droppable, although overreaction vs the Lion's defense will be a year long challenge. Rodgers did go to him deep on a 4th and 3 when the game was only 17-3, and got a defensive PI. 
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And if he is not tackled there with the PI...he would have been wide open up the seam for a likely TD (though, the way Rodgers was throwing it, the pass would have been off).

Its hard to really judge much of anything about the Packers from last week.  It was so bad...there was nothing about them that can really be evaluated unless we see more of that same inept play from them.  I don't suspect we see much more of that.

 
Robert Tonyan caught all three of his targets for 52 yards and one touchdown in the Packers' Week 2 win over the Lions.

Tonyan's three targets tied Randall Cobb for fourth on the team, and Tonyan has now seen just seven looks through two games. However, he made his ones count tonight with a 22-yard touchdown grab on one, catching the lone non-Aaron Jones touchdown of the evening. Tonyan is a red-zone dominator and will flirt with double-digit touchdowns, but the target volume is unlikely to be there with Davante Adams and Jones healthy. Tonyan will be a back-end TE1 next week at the 49ers.

Sep 21, 2021, 12:29 AM ET
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Robert Tonyan caught one pass for six yards in Week 3 against the 49ers.

It's a step back after Tonyan found the end-zone last week. Aaron Rodgers threw red-zone TDs to Davante Adams and Marques Valdes-Scantling, leaving Tonyan with a floor game. Tonyan's snaps and usage are down after a breakout 2020. The 27-year-old has 66 yards on eight targets through three weeks.
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Not sure I can stick with it. He'll have some 2 TD games. Good luck guessing when. He's like the 5th option right now. 

 
Robert Tonyan caught 2-of-7 targets for eight yards in the Packers' Week 4 win over the Steelers.

Aaron Rodgers appeared to under-throw Tonyan on a possible touchdown down the seam late in this one. Outside of Tonyan's 3-52-1 line in Week 2, Tonyan has scoreless receiving lines of 2-8, 1-6, and 2-8 in his other three games. Tonyan is a touchdown-or-bust fantasy proposition ahead of Week 5 against the Bengals.
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Just can’t hold him…but think it will get better when Bahktiari is back and Jenkins is back at guard.  Less need to keep in in blocking or chipping pass rushers to help the young line and he can concentrate more on getting out in routes quick.

Sucks too that Rodgers missed him a couple times last bight for TDs.

 
Robert Tonyan caught 2-of-3 targets for 10 yards in the Packers' Week 6 win over the Bears.

The 10 yards were his second-most of the season. That's all we need to know. Tonyan is well off the fantasy radar in this low-volume passing offense where Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, and now even AJ Dillon are commanding the vast majority of the touches. Tonyan gets a Week 7 date with Washington.

- NBC SportsEDGE
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Speaking after Thursday's win over the Cardinals, Packers coach Matt LaFleur said he was "sick" about Robert Tonyan's knee injury. 

“I’m sick for him," LaFleur said. "I'm sick for us. My heart goes out to him.” LaFleur did not provide specifics, but it certainly sounds like Tonyan's season is through after he went down in the third quarter in Arizona. Friday testing will confirm the severity. Any fantasy managers who were still holding onto the 2020 touchdown-scoring sensation can sadly let go. Marcedes Lewis and H-back Josiah Degura are the next men up, but there will not be any fantasy value there. Hold you breath for better than expected news. 

SOURCE: Rob Demovsky on Twitter 

Oct 29, 2021, 1:06 AM ET
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NFL Networks' Ian Rapoport reports Robert Tonyan suffered a "significant" knee injury in Week 8 against the Cardinals. 

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said he was "sick" for Tonyan after he crumpled to the turf following a long catch and run in the third quarter of the Packers' Week 8 win over Arizona. Tonyan was helped to the team's locker room after a short visit to the blue injury tent and did not return to action. All signs point to Tonyan having a long-term injury, leaving Marcedes Lewis and Josiah Deguara as Green Bay's top two tight ends. Deguara caught both of his targets Thursday night for 20 yards, and would likely be the primary pass-catching tight end in Tonyan's absence. 

RELATED: 

Marcedes Lewis

, Josiah Deguara

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Oct 29, 2021, 8:16 AM ET
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Packers TE Robert Tonyan suffered a torn ACL in Week 8 against the Cardinals.

Tonyan's agent confirmed as much, stating the 27-year-old will miss the rest of the year with a torn ACL in his left knee. Josiah Deguara, Green Bay's third-round pick in 2020 draft, caught both of his targets for 20 yards in place of Tonyan on Thursday night. The team will also use veteran Marcedes Lewis in multi-tight end packages moving forward. A free agent in 2022, it's unclear if the Packers will re-sign Tonyan as he rehabs ahead of the new league year.

- Jack Bechta, Twitter
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The Frankman said:
Quote
Packers TE Robert Tonyan suffered a torn ACL in Week 8 against the Cardinals.

Tonyan's agent confirmed as much, stating the 27-year-old will miss the rest of the year with a torn ACL in his left knee. Josiah Deguara, Green Bay's third-round pick in 2020 draft, caught both of his targets for 20 yards in place of Tonyan on Thursday night. The team will also use veteran Marcedes Lewis in multi-tight end packages moving forward. A free agent in 2022, it's unclear if the Packers will re-sign Tonyan as he rehabs ahead of the new league year.

- Jack Bechta, Twitter
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Yep, thought this as soon as it happened real time. That's too bad. His 2021 was just starting to get rolling.

 
I feel bad for Tonyan. I was rooting for him to defy the naysayers. 

For Green Bay, the timing of this injury gives them an option to trade for some talent and build upon the momentum they've established.  Go get Engram.

 
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Packers re-signed TE Robert Tonyan to a one-year contract.

Tonyan broke out with 11 touchdowns on 52 receptions in 2020. He was struggling to repeat his gaudy scoring numbers in 2021 and then suffered a season-ending ACL tear in Week 8. Tonyan's signing this late into free agency likely means he didn't receive any substantial offers on the open market. The Packers did not have a legitimate pass-catching threat at tight end emerge after Tonyan went down, so he should reclaim the starting role once fully recovered.

SOURCE: Tom Silverstein on Twitter

Mar 19, 2022, 6:29 PM ET
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Packers GM Brian Gutekunst said TE Robert Tonyan (knee) is "ahead of schedule" in his recovery from ACL surgery.

The Packers hope Tonyan, who tore his ACL in Week 8, can return in the early part of the season. Tonyan had a career 2020, breaking out for a 21% TD rate on 52 catches, but dipped last year, finishing with two TDs in eight games before landing on IR. Re-signed to a one-year deal after not finding any free agent offers, a healthy Tonyan will be returning in the right situation to rehab his value as the primary pass-catching tight end in an offense that lost Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling this offseason.

SOURCE: packers.com

Mar 31, 2022, 7:11 PM ET
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Packers TE Robert Tonyan (knee) was limited at OTAs.

Tonyan rehabbed off to the side during the first week of minicamp. Packers GM Brian Gutekunst said in March the tight end was "ahead of schedule" in his recovery. Six months removed from surgery, Tonyan has a chance to be cleared for the start of training camp.

SOURCE: Green Bay Press-Gazette

May 27, 2022, 8:34 PM ET
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ESPN's Rob Demovsky has TE Robert Tonyan starting off on the PUP list in his initial 53-man roster projection.

Tonyan was limited to rehab work in OTAs, but Packers GM Brian Gutenkunst said at the time that Tonyan was "ahead of schedule" in his recovery. This update paints a cloudier picture of the tight end's availability. If Tonyan misses regular season games, it would likely be Josiah Deguara picking up his snaps and a share of his targets. 

RELATED: 

Josiah Deguara

SOURCE: ESPN

Jun 21, 2022, 3:13 PM ET
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Could be a good value if he is able to be back for the start of the season. MVP QB who has some trust in him combined with a lot of targets up for grabs. 

 
For those of us that went zero TE strategy. How we feeling about Tonyan. A case could be made for a weak WR corps and Rodgers wanting to throw to someone he trusts.

Not much discussion on him other than he practiced two weeks ago.
 
VikingFrog said:
For those of us that went zero TE strategy. How we feeling about Tonyan. A case could be made for a weak WR corps and Rodgers wanting to throw to someone he trusts.

Not much discussion on him other than he practiced two weeks ago.
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I think he's a sneaky pick. I believe there is some trust w/ Rogers and he should certainly see his fair share of RZ targets I think. If I wait on TE, I am looking to roster two w. him being one of them and very late round addition.
 
xenon said:
VikingFrog said:
For those of us that went zero TE strategy. How we feeling about Tonyan. A case could be made for a weak WR corps and Rodgers wanting to throw to someone he trusts.

Not much discussion on him other than he practiced two weeks ago.
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I think he's a sneaky pick. I believe there is some trust w/ Rogers and he should certainly see his fair share of RZ targets I think. If I wait on TE, I am looking to roster two w. him being one of them and very late round addition.
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Depends on how he bounces back from the ACL. If he is fully recovered and trusts his own health he can be good because of the Rodgers trust factor but he is a big guy running on a surgically repaired knee from last season. I think these things take time medically and mentally. I would feel better if he was at 24 months after the surgery. Talent is there for sure.
 
I liked him at first but I’m feeling rushed. I will look to pick him up later, but I need to see him out there and feel it might take a few weeks or so. We are talking about a td dependent TE that just came back from ACL injury. His targets could increase or he could take 10 weeks to get up to speed. I can let someone else get him.
 

Robert Tonyan (knee) was removed from the injury report and will play against the Vikings in Week 1.​

It's likely his role will be somewhat limited in his first game back from a torn ACL, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports. Tonyan will be a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 against the Vikings. Green Bay's target shares are up in the air in a post-Davante Adams world. Tonyan had three or fewer targets in four of his eight games last season.
Sep 9, 2022, 2:51 PM ET
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