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WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (3 Viewers)

barackdhouse said:
Like would you put him over McLaurin if he plays? 
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If I had McLaurin he would be in unquestionably over Jefferson

Double said:
I’ve had him in my starting lineup all week over Gallup and Lamb and alongside Beckham. Looking for upside since I’m currently 0-3. But CLE CB’s are either out or questionable so now I have no clue.
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I think because CLE's secondary is ailing Lamb is a great upside pick. Don't have a bead on Gallup v Jefferson. My feeling is they have a base performance of about  4 catches 50 yards so it's who is more liable to score a TD. I doubt Jefferson has 9 targets again, but he may get more than his usual 3 in weeks 1 and 2.

Biabreakable said:
According to this Bradley Roby should shadow Adam Thielen while Jefferson matches up with Vernon Hargreaves 3.

Some are predicting break out game for Irv Smith because the Texans have given up a lot of points to TE this year.

The Texans are bad against the run. Seems like Cook should have a big game and open up play action opportunities.
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Is Hargreaves III any good? I may just roll with Cooks given that his target share is around 5, even though he hasn't done tons with them. The offense may have tilted in Jefferson's favor given last week's game, but I don't know that for sure until they play. In the meantime, I need a win.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
If I had McLaurin he would be in unquestionably over Jefferson
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I'm not so sure. Terry didn't practice today and the Ravens are ticked off. They may curb stomp the Football Team which would force them to throw more, but I don't like the matchup for Haskins. Don't get me wrong I love Terry and am starting him everywhere I have him. 

I thought I saw something saying Jefferson had been purposely promoted to the #2 and that they're planning on passing more. Their defense seems to be helping in that regard. Jefferson should be getting 9 targets again I would think. He may very well finish ahead of Terry ROS. Or close.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Is Hargreaves III any good?
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He isn't a player I am very familiar with.

He was a 1st round pick by the Bucs but played so badly last year that he got benched and then cut after the game. The Texans picked him up and then signed him to a 1 year deal for this year.

I may just roll with Cooks given that his target share is around 5, even though he hasn't done tons with them. The offense may have tilted in Jefferson's favor given last week's game, but I don't know that for sure until they play. In the meantime, I need a win.
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Cooks only played 50% of the snaps week one but he has been in near 90% since then. Has 5 targets each game so far.

Both seem like good options from a match up perspective.

Cooks one of the best WR in the league despite so many team changes for him. 

Good luck with whatever you decide.

 
Joe Summer said:
Picked him up just for fun, now I see that Ridley is questionable so I may end up starting the guy.
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Nice pick up, but you're talking the THE #1 WR in fantasy. I don't see anyone scared that Ridley won't play. 

Ridley plays and he's the best right now.

EDIT: I too picked up Jefferson off the waiver wire and outbid 6 owners. I like his talent and opportunity. He's in my lineup this week. No way would I play him over Ridley though.

 
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With these Covid cases and injuries I may have to start JJ this weekend. Anybody else starting him this week? I have Odel, Chark and Jefferson. I could actually go all LSU WR's this weekend. I have to bench JuJu and now Edelman may not play. 

 
barackdhouse said:
I'm not so sure. Terry didn't practice today and the Ravens are ticked off. They may curb stomp the Football Team which would force them to throw more, but I don't like the matchup for Haskins. Don't get me wrong I love Terry and am starting him everywhere I have him. 

I thought I saw something saying Jefferson had been purposely promoted to the #2 and that they're planning on passing more. Their defense seems to be helping in that regard. Jefferson should be getting 9 targets again I would think. He may very well finish ahead of Terry ROS. Or close.
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It comes down to whether you think Terry is healthy enough to be efficient out there. If he is deemed good enough to start, given talent, targets, and to your point, the need for the WFT to stay in catch-up mode, I think Terry is a safe start. The only thing that would give me pause if he's a GTD. I believe right now he's questionable, and indicating he's excited to play. Good enough for me if I had him. 

Biabreakable said:
He isn't a player I am very familiar with.

He was a 1st round pick by the Bucs but played so badly last year that he got benched and then cut after the game. The Texans picked him up and then signed him to a 1 year deal for this year.

Cooks only played 50% of the snaps week one but he has been in near 90% since then. Has 5 targets each game so far.

Both seem like good options from a match up perspective.

Cooks one of the best WR in the league despite so many team changes for him. 

Good luck with whatever you decide.
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Truly appreciate the insight -- it's this kind of info and opinion that keeps me at this site. Stay golden, Pony-Biabreakable -- and thanks.

 
Im just listening to Aaron Reiss who writes about the Texans for the Athletic and so on.

He says that Hargraves almost lost his job to rookie John Reid in TC this year and that they are playing a converted safety in nickel packages. They have been trading away a lot of their draft picks and do not really have up and coming players who might compete to start.

JJ Watt should have a good day against the Vikings guards.

He doesn't really talk about the Texans WR that much but says that Fuller, Cooks and Stills are all kind of the same skill set while Cobb gives them something different but they are still missing Hopkins.

 
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Justin Jefferson caught 4-of-5 targets for 103 yards in the Vikings' Week 4 win over the Texans. 

The No. 22 overall pick has now reached 100 yards in back-to-back games after combining for 5/70 on six targets across Weeks 1 and 2. He has drawn 14 of Kirk Cousins' 49 targets over the past two weeks. All four of Jefferson's receptions went for 20-plus yards as he kept ripping holes between the second and third levels of the Texans' defense. Jefferson is heating up just in time for back-to-back games with the Seahawks and Falcons' nonexistent secondaries. He will be on the WR2 radar for next week's guaranteed shootout with Seattle. 

- Rotoworld
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Would have liked more targets and catches but that's looking a gift horse in the mouth. Can't complain about performance/production. Here's hoping it continues.

 
Talk me out of overpaying for this guy for my dynasty rebuild. 

He looks to have the "my ball" mentality and body control that elite guys have. As much as I've tried to acquire Lamb, I think I should have been trying for Jefferson. 

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Talk me out of overpaying for this guy for my dynasty rebuild. 

He looks to have the "my ball" mentality and body control that elite guys have. As much as I've tried to acquire Lamb, I think I should have been trying for Jefferson. 
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I am trying to make a deal as well. 
 

Only issue in redraft is the low volume passing offense. 

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Talk me out of overpaying for this guy for my dynasty rebuild. 

He looks to have the "my ball" mentality and body control that elite guys have. As much as I've tried to acquire Lamb, I think I should have been trying for Jefferson. 
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I tried to move him off of my contending roster for a coule of weeks before his breakout game and nobody was interested.  Now you'll have to pry him out of my cold dead hands. 

Overpay or not, I'm not sure if his owners are willing to move him at all today.

 
NFL Rookie Rankings: 10 highest-graded rookies through Week 4

Excerpt:

2. WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON, MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Jefferson claims the No. 2 spot in the PFF rookie rankings after earning position-high PFF grades in Week 3 and Week 4. And not only is he the highest-graded rookie so far; he’s also the highest-graded wide receiver in the entire NFL.

Jefferson has averaged a remarkable 5.67 yards per route run over the past two weeks, nearly two yards more than any other wideout on a per-route basis.

The biggest concern with Jefferson coming out of LSU was the fact he hadn’t proved that he could win out wide against single coverage, but he's put that concern to bed over the last two weeks by recording a 96.5 receiving grade in man-to-man situations — nearly four grading points higher than any other wideout.

It’s early, but it looks as though Jefferson is more than capable of filling the void left by the departed Stefon Diggs and teaming up with Adam Thielen to form of the NFL's most lethal WR duos.
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Just listening to Mike Zimmers press conference.

He is asked a question framed by the fact that Jefferson is averaging 21.8 ypr and Zimmers response is that they need to get him more catches.

 
Justin Jefferson caught 3-of-5 targets for 23 yards in Week 5 against Seattle.

Jefferson had a quiet night after he went over 100 yards the last two weeks. He took a backseat to Adam Thielen, who scored twice and had a team-high 13 targets. Jefferson is still locked in as the No. 2 option despite the down week. He has a good rebound spot with the Falcons' secondary in Week 6.

Oct 12, 2020, 12:03 AM ET
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Jefferson was set up nicely to make a big play on the pass by Kirk Cousins that was thrown way too short and was picked off by Bobby Wagner.

The nearest defender to Cousins on the play was Wagner, he was not under pressure. He was late to throw it and he didn't throw it far enough. If he leads Jefferson on this we are talking 20 yards maybe more.

 
Biabreakable said:
Jefferson was set up nicely to make a big play on the pass by Kirk Cousins that was thrown way too short and was picked off by Bobby Wagner.

The nearest defender to Cousins on the play was Wagner, he was not under pressure. He was late to throw it and he didn't throw it far enough. If he leads Jefferson on this we are talking 20 yards maybe more.
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Collinsworth pointed out where Jefferson came wide open on a deep crossing route as well but a blitzing safety blew up the roll out. Bummer, but kind of sums up my entire weekend... woulda-coulda-shoulda.

As a former Diggs owner, it seems like Cousins goes through stretches where he has eyes only for Thielen. 13 targets last night.

 
Bummer that the guy put up a stinker last night but i still believe in the talent and situation. I get that Cousins isn't great and they dont WANT to throw a ton, but someone has to catch some balls there and they dont have much else. I suspect he'll be startable most weeks the rest of the way.

The potential Cook injury throws a little wrinkle in though. Who knows what the offense will look like if he's out.

 
Justin Jefferson caught 9-of-11 targets for 166 yards and two touchdowns in the Vikings' Week 6 loss to the Falcons.

Jefferson is already one of the better route runners, playmakers, and downfield threats in the NFL, and he's only 21 years old. He commanded a team-high 31% target share today while Adam Thielen only saw five targets. Jefferson needs the Vikings to pass more to have a high weekly floor, but the upside is obvious and is here to stay. Jefferson will be a WR2 following the Vikings' Week 7 bye.

Oct 18, 2020, 4:07 PM ET
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If the Bears were even halfway competent on offense tonight Jefferson could have had more. So glad I picked him up everywhere this year.

 
Justin Jefferson caught 8-of-10 targets for 135 yards in the Vikings' Week 10 win over the Bears.

Jefferson now has four games of at least 100 receiving yards on the year. The record since the NFL/AFL merger is seven such games set by Odell Beckham in 2014. Jefferson is now chasing history with eight games left on his schedule. Even though Minnesota operates a run-first approach, Jefferson is still managing to light up the scoreboard every few weeks. Thielen caught both of Kirk Cousins' touchdowns versus the Bears but Jefferson led the Vikings in targets. He's a high-end WR2 going forward.

Nov 16, 2020, 11:37 PM ET
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barackdhouse said:
So glad I picked him up everywhere this year.
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I think we all are, and not just because this was a waiver add that hit.

It's that watching him, you could see something special there -- and while there has been a few poor showings, he really has delivered for fantasy GMs.

Like Metcalf for me this year, Jefferson is a guy I am going to target and even reach for a little next year. 

The team around him is bound to change, and I would think MIN looks to get some additional pass catchers -- at WR and TE -- next year.

But Jefferson's situation next reminds me of those years we saw Godwin or Ridley or Metcalf for that reason all break out -- guys with aging WRs ahead of them in the depth chart, who showed solid skills and broke out as that WR1 aged (Thielen is 30 right now), and who have shown they could catch the ball lined up anywhere, in any situation or need.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
But Jefferson's situation next reminds me of those years we saw Godwin or Ridley or Metcalf for that reason all break out -- guys with aging WRs ahead of them in the depth chart, who showed solid skills and broke out as that WR1 aged (Thielen is 30 right now), and who have shown they could catch the ball lined up anywhere, in any situation or need.
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There are a lot of people wanting to bury Adam Thielen who is a dad but isn't running like one.. yet. Maybe some people think he is.

Its possible Jefferson becomes the Vikings top WR next year I suppose. The receivers are always better when the defense can't focus on just one of them. Stefon Diggs may be the best WR in the league right now but Jefferson has far exceeded expectations and makes losing Diggs not sting so bad. The Vikings want to keep things this way, with two top WR for the QB to work with. I do get your point about the young guy stepping up though and perhaps playing out of the shadow of their team mates and becoming the next big thing.

I heard in interview with Jefferson that he had more yards than Randy Moss did after 8 games as a rookie. 

Jefferson covers a lot of ground without seeming very fast to me. I guess its because of the smooth gliding way that he runs. He has long strides, it eats up a lot of space and plays that seem somewhat routine to me at first I find myself amazed with how many yards it actually was.

As far as changes moving forward this might be Rudolphs last season with the Vikings although I am sure they would like to keep him. Maybe if he takes a pay cut he stays.

As far as the draft goes I think the Vikings will likely be looking at defense. Their drafts have been more on the offensive side of the ball recently and although they could use a good WR 3 they are not in that personnel group enough for it to be much of a priority. I don't think the Vikings are picking skill players early in the next draft unless its a QB.

 
Biabreakable said:
There are a lot of people wanting to bury Adam Thielen who is a dad but isn't running like one.. yet. Maybe some people think he is.

Its possible Jefferson becomes the Vikings top WR next year I suppose. The receivers are always better when the defense can't focus on just one of them. Stefon Diggs may be the best WR in the league right now but Jefferson has far exceeded expectations and makes losing Diggs not sting so bad. The Vikings want to keep things this way, with two top WR for the QB to work with. I do get your point about the young guy stepping up though and perhaps playing out of the shadow of their team mates and becoming the next big thing.

I heard in interview with Jefferson that he had more yards than Randy Moss did after 8 games as a rookie. 

Jefferson covers a lot of ground without seeming very fast to me. I guess its because of the smooth gliding way that he runs. He has long strides, it eats up a lot of space and plays that seem somewhat routine to me at first I find myself amazed with how many yards it actually was.

As far as changes moving forward this might be Rudolphs last season with the Vikings although I am sure they would like to keep him. Maybe if he takes a pay cut he stays.

As far as the draft goes I think the Vikings will likely be looking at defense. Their drafts have been more on the offensive side of the ball recently and although they could use a good WR 3 they are not in that personnel group enough for it to be much of a priority. I don't think the Vikings are picking skill players early in the next draft unless its a QB.
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There’s a guy on Reddit tracking Jefferson vs Moss rookie seasons. This doesn’t include yesterday’s game: https://reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/comments/ju1tkf/tracking_justin_jeffersons_rookie_season_week_9/ .

 
About a month ago I had an offer to trade away Jefferson and Lamar for Murray and T. Hill in one of my dynasty leagues and I passed on it....and Murray has gone off for several weeks in a row and I've regretted it....then last night Jefferson reminds me why that might not have been the stupidest trade I've ever declined ;)

 
Jefferson is going to be a WR1 next year as he takes over in Minny.  It doesn’t hurt that teams will have to cover Thielen too.

 
Biabreakable said:
Stefon Diggs may be the best WR in the league right now but Jefferson has far exceeded expectations and makes losing Diggs not sting so bad.
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Fwiw PFF has graded Jefferson as the top WR in the NFL in 4 of the the 10 weeks so far, which is pretty nuts.

I heard in interview with Jefferson that he had more yards than Randy Moss did after 8 games as a rookie. 
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It's not just Moss.  JJ has the 5th most yards of all-time through his first 9 games, and all four of the guys ahead of him had 70+ targets (JJ has 54).

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
I think we all are, and not just because this was a waiver add that hit.

It's that watching him, you could see something special there -- and while there has been a few poor showings, he really has delivered for fantasy GMs.

Like Metcalf for me this year, Jefferson is a guy I am going to target and even reach for a little next year. 

The team around him is bound to change, and I would think MIN looks to get some additional pass catchers -- at WR and TE -- next year.

But Jefferson's situation next reminds me of those years we saw Godwin or Ridley or Metcalf for that reason all break out -- guys with aging WRs ahead of them in the depth chart, who showed solid skills and broke out as that WR1 aged (Thielen is 30 right now), and who have shown they could catch the ball lined up anywhere, in any situation or need.
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I drafted him in nearly all the spots I have him in redraft. I dropped him in a couple of those and was never able to pick up again. I even made a bone headed trade after week 2 of Jefferson for David Johnson, because I thought I needed a RB really bad. Oof.

 
wlwiles said:
*Sitting in the corner crying that I drafted Ruggs over him in dynasty* 🤮
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I'm sure lots of other people did too. Come to think of it, I drafted Ruggs over Higgins in one of my PPR dynasty leagues (Jefferson was gone) and honestly that looks just as bad. Not sure I'll ever bother drafting a Raiders WR again. When is the last time one panned out?  :bag:

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Fwiw PFF has graded Jefferson as the top WR in the NFL in 4 of the the 10 weeks so far, which is pretty nuts.
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Its better than nothing. I have figured out part of why pff grades are so off by trying to do a similar process as they do myself. The grades are not aligned at all because of sample sizes. Maybe they are better with full season ratings than the weekly ones. I am not sure.

To give one example pff had JJ Arcega Whiteside as one of their top rookie prospects. Their high ranking of him may have even influenced NFL teams like the Eagles to make a very bad decision. When I watched Whiteside all I saw was a niche player who might be useful in the red zone but not much else.

Sure everyone gets things wrong, but this took massive anti skill and bad process to arrive at such a conclusion.

They do have some stats from their charting that no one else has.

It's not just Moss.  JJ has the 5th most yards of all-time through his first 9 games, and all four of the guys ahead of him had 70+ targets (JJ has 54).
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Yeah Jefferson is not only getting a lot of yards. He is doing it with a 78% catch rate at 18.1 yards per reception.

Jefferson  is 7th in receiving yards in the NFL right now and 8th in yards per game.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Fwiw PFF has graded Jefferson as the top WR in the NFL in 4 of the the 10 weeks so far, which is pretty nuts.

It's not just Moss.  JJ has the 5th most yards of all-time through his first 9 games, and all four of the guys ahead of him had 70+ targets (JJ has 54).
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It's insane..  I basically parted with Diggs in a keeper league to make a slot for Jefferson.  Diggs netted me more return and I decided I'd rather take Jefferson plus some juice because I'm not sure I wouldn't rather have Jefferson anyway.

 
Justin Jefferson caught 7-of-13 targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns in the Vikings' Week 12 win over the Panthers.

Everything was working in Jefferson's favor on Sunday. Adam Thielen and Irv Smith were out, Dalvin Cook was banged up in the second half, and the Vikings were trailing for the entire game. That led to a season-high 13 targets and another huge day for the Offensive Rookie of the Year contender. Jefferson was able to hit the Griddy twice after scores and had other red zone chances, too. Jefferson is up to 918 receiving yards and six scores in one of the NFL's most run-heavy offenses. He's as good as it gets among rookie receivers.

- Rotoworld
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Jefferson Generating Buzz for Offensive Rookie of the Year Award

Justin Jefferson currently has 1039 receiving yards in 12 games. At 86 yards per game he is on pace for 1385 receiving yards which would set an all time record for a rookie season. The record is currently held by Odell Beckham Jr who had 1305 yards in 12 games. Not saying that Jeffersons rookie season would be better than OBJ who had 109 yards per game. But the raw yardage could possibly be higher.

Thats amazing.

Here is an old post detailing all WR who have had 1000 yards or more in their rookie seasons. If this is right I count 18 total players to have done it since 1978. The WR to do it not included in this article from 2015 were Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper and AJ Brown.

 
Biabreakable said:
Jefferson Generating Buzz for Offensive Rookie of the Year Award

Justin Jefferson currently has 1039 receiving yards in 12 games. At 86 yards per game he is on pace for 1385 receiving yards which would set an all time record for a rookie season. The record is currently held by Odell Beckham Jr who had 1305 yards in 12 games. Not saying that Jeffersons rookie season would be better than OBJ who had 109 yards per game. But the raw yardage could possibly be higher.

Thats amazing.

Here is an old post detailing all WR who have had 1000 yards or more in their rookie seasons. If this is right I count 18 total players to have done it since 1978. The WR to do it not included in this article from 2015 were Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper and AJ Brown.
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What jumped out: 

Kelvin Benjamin (2014) (ACTIVE): 16 GP, 16 GS, 73 Rec, 1008yds, 9 TD, 13.8 Y/R, 63.0 Y/G

Drafted 28th overall by the Carolina Panthers in 2014. Too early to even begin to speculate about his career.
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:whistle:

 
djjosee said:
What jumped out: 

:whistle:
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Yeah its kind of fun using the way back machine some times.

Most of the players who exceeded 1000 yards in their rookie season went on to have good careers. Kelvin Benjamin was not one of them. Bill Brooks probably the 3rd worst career out of these 18 players. Michael Clayton had an injury but he did less than Benjamin.

 
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