2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread

[massraider]

2 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Might also have something to do with the fact that this pandemic has the biggest impact among the elderly and Trump has done worse than nothing about it.

Campaign manager:  Hmm, so it seems seniors don't like it when thousands of them die, and the candidate downplays the seriousness of the virus. Huh. OK, good to know, someone write that down....

[Gr00vus]

9 minutes ago, massraider said:

Campaign manager:  Hmm, so it seems seniors don't like it when thousands of them die, and the candidate downplays the seriousness of the virus. Huh. OK, good to know, someone write that down....

It's remarkable how tone deaf Trump's current "marketing campaign" in relation to Covid is if the goal is to win an election. It's playing great with his base, but beyond that he's alienating people he needs to vote for him in a way that will be very difficult to recover from. He's actively shrinking his own bubble.

[gianmarco]

So, we know there was Russian interference in the 2016 election.  We don't need to discuss whether or not it was actively encouraged by the current administration, so we'll just stick with what was stated with certainty.

Is there any talk or evidence of similar attempts in 2020?  Would we even know if that were the case?

[gianmarco]

8 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

So, we know there was Russian interference in the 2016 election.  We don't need to discuss whether or not it was actively encouraged by the current administration, so we'll just stick with what was stated with certainty.

Is there any talk or evidence of similar attempts in 2020?  Would we even know if that were the case?

Seems there is:

First link

Second link

Third link

Fourth link (with the following below)

New whistleblower complaint

Democrats' concerns that the White House is intentionally playing down the threat from Russia for Trump's benefit were exacerbated this week by a new whistleblower complaint alleging acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf instructed DHS officials to "cease providing intelligence assessments on the threat of Russian interference," and focus activities carried out by China and Iran.

"This is clearly part of a pattern where they put pressure on the agencies to adopt, manipulate, color their analysis, because if they tell the truth, it will be embarrassing to the president," House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Thursday. "It's dangerous, because if they're not sharing this information with the American people, the country isn't protected.

Trump's Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe has also cut off in-person election interference briefings for members of Congress, a move that Democrats charge puts the public at risk of being duped by Russian interference again in 2020.

DHS said in a statement following the whistleblower complaint that the "allegations are patently untrue." But both the House and Senate Intelligence Committees are investigating the charges in the whistleblower reprisal complaint filed by Brian Murphy, who previously oversaw the intelligence division at the department.

Edited October 6, 2020 by gianmarco

[Sammy3469]

36 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

It's remarkable how tone deaf Trump's current "marketing campaign" in relation to Covid is if the goal is to win an election. It's playing great with his base, but beyond that he's alienating people he needs to vote for him in a way that will be very difficult to recover from. He's actively shrinking his own bubble.

Is it though, I mean a large portion of the 65+ was his base last time (he won that age group 52% to 45% in 2016) and he's seemingly lost a large portion of it.  The only thing he's really holding onto are the 30-65 white men.  

Edited October 6, 2020 by Sammy3469

[Drunken Cowboy]

5 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

All valid points, of course.

But I would posit this year is different for three reasons:

1.  Most polls have adjusted their methodology in 2020 to account for a shift in voters who are more favorable towards Trump - meaning there is unlikely to be another "hidden" shift.

2.  In 2016, voters were voting on the promise of what a Trump presidency might look like - now everyone knows what a Trump presidency looks like, and you either like it, or you don't.  Nobody is really voting on potential any more.

3.  There is a lot of early voting going on this year - those votes are already cast.

I don't think these shifts are warranted. 2016 was a unique year.

[Sinn Fein]

1 minute ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

I don't think these shifts are warranted. 2016 was a unique year.

Yes/no/maybe.

I think the education weighting is important - albeit not earth-shattering.

Trump, in particular, has had an advantage among non-college educated voters, and has seemingly targeted that group in campaigns - and that should be captured in the make-up of the expected electorate.

 

In a future election, maybe the education weighting is less important.

[Drunken Cowboy]

1 minute ago, Sinn Fein said:

Yes/no/maybe.

I think the education weighting is important - albeit not earth-shattering.

Trump, in particular, has had an advantage among non-college educated voters, and has seemingly targeted that group in campaigns - and that should be captured in the make-up of the expected electorate.

 

In a future election, maybe the education weighting is less important.

He got historic turnout from this group in 2016. I don't think that can be repeated. Clinton as his opponent drove a lot of this.

[Gr00vus]

17 minutes ago, Sammy3469 said:

Is it though, I mean a large portion of the 65+ was his base last time (he won that age group 52% to 45% in 2016) and he's seemingly lost a large portion of it.  The only thing he's really holding onto are the 30-65 white men.  

That's basically my point - he's catering to the "Trump guy/gal" base. He had been drawing in a decent amount of senior citizens too for various reasons, but this latest line of "appeal" seems like a last straw for what was already a diminishing component of his voting block.

[Joe Summer]

I wonder if any pollsters have adjusted their sampling to account for the higher proportion of Democrats who will be using mail-in ballots. Since mail-in ballots are more likely to be invalidated, that's a significant advantage for Republicans.

[Juxtatarot]

7 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

I wonder if any pollsters have adjusted their sampling to account for the higher proportion of Democrats who will be using mail-in ballots. Since mail-in ballots are more likely to be invalidated, that's a significant advantage for Republicans.

I know there have been a lot of polls that have asked by what means the voter intends to vote.  Wouldn't mail-ins possibly be more reliable though?  A lot of in-person voters may end up not voting due to family or work obligations, emergencies, laziness, weather, etc.  

[Sinn Fein]

Only time will tell, and maybe not even then - but I think the invalidated ballots are likely to be counter-balanced by increased voter turnout.

[Sammy3469]

10 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

I know there have been a lot of polls that have asked by what means the voter intends to vote.  Wouldn't mail-ins possibly be more reliable though?  A lot of in-person voters may end up not voting due to family or work obligations, emergencies, laziness, weather, etc.  

Unsurprisingly there's been a decent number of discussions between the polling geeks on Twitter.  The rough consensus seems to be they'd all prefer the standard LV screens over breakouts since you may end up with skews from small sample sizes.  

[[scooter]]

40 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

I wonder if any pollsters have adjusted their sampling to account for the higher proportion of Democrats who will be using mail-in ballots. Since mail-in ballots are more likely to be invalidated, that's a significant advantage for Republicans.

There are so many variables that I'm not sure if they can all be plugged in to the polls. Normally, absentee ballots are rejected about 0.3% more often than regular ballots. But I would imagine that the rejection rate would be much higher in 2020, simply because so many more people are doing it. Then you have to factor the reduced number of dropboxes in certain states. Then you have to factor the increased COVID transmission in various states -- for example, I bet the in-person turnout will be much lower in Wisconsin (where cases are spiking) compared to Michigan or Minnesota (where cases are more flat).

When you combine those factors with the enthusiasm of Trump voters and their willingness to risk death to vote, I think it gives a significant advantage to Trump.

[Sinn Fein]

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce 

 

Catching coronavirus has been disastrous for President Trump’s re-election hopes, with support for the president plummeting since news of the infection broke, allowing Democratic nominee Joe Biden to open a commanding double-digit lead, a new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll shows.

The nationwide poll reveals that instead of a sympathy factor for Trump, there’s been a stunning drop in the Republican president’s poll numbers since he revealed his diagnosis last Friday.

In two days of polling before Trump got COVID, the president trailed Biden by just a 46-41% margin. In the three days of polling after the coronavirus diagnosis, Biden held a 55-34% lead. That means Biden’s lead grew by a whopping 16 points from pre-COVID to post-COVID.

Among all the 1,003 registered voters in the nationwide Franklin Pierce-Herald poll, Biden now holds a 51-37% lead over Trump less than a month before Election Day. Three percent support a third party candidate while 8% say they are still undecided.

 

Biden - 51
Trump - 37

[H Jass]

3 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce 

 

Catching coronavirus has been disastrous for President Trump’s re-election hopes, with support for the president plummeting since news of the infection broke, allowing Democratic nominee Joe Biden to open a commanding double-digit lead, a new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll shows.

The nationwide poll reveals that instead of a sympathy factor for Trump, there’s been a stunning drop in the Republican president’s poll numbers since he revealed his diagnosis last Friday.

In two days of polling before Trump got COVID, the president trailed Biden by just a 46-41% margin. In the three days of polling after the coronavirus diagnosis, Biden held a 55-34% lead. That means Biden’s lead grew by a whopping 16 points from pre-COVID to post-COVID.

Among all the 1,003 registered voters in the nationwide Franklin Pierce-Herald poll, Biden now holds a 51-37% lead over Trump less than a month before Election Day. Three percent support a third party candidate while 8% say they are still undecided.

 

Biden - 51
Trump - 37

Who are these undecided voters and how can I get a hold of some the beautiful bliss they must experience skipping through life!?!!?

[Sinn Fein]

4 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

Who are these undecided voters and how can I get a hold of some the beautiful bliss they must experience skipping through life!?!!?

Too hard to tell -but my guess is many of these are former Republicans who want to vote for some of Trump's policies, but can't stomach all that entails.  They are more likely to stay home, than vote Biden.

[AAABatteries]

32 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce 

 

Catching coronavirus has been disastrous for President Trump’s re-election hopes, with support for the president plummeting since news of the infection broke, allowing Democratic nominee Joe Biden to open a commanding double-digit lead, a new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll shows.

The nationwide poll reveals that instead of a sympathy factor for Trump, there’s been a stunning drop in the Republican president’s poll numbers since he revealed his diagnosis last Friday.

In two days of polling before Trump got COVID, the president trailed Biden by just a 46-41% margin. In the three days of polling after the coronavirus diagnosis, Biden held a 55-34% lead. That means Biden’s lead grew by a whopping 16 points from pre-COVID to post-COVID.

Among all the 1,003 registered voters in the nationwide Franklin Pierce-Herald poll, Biden now holds a 51-37% lead over Trump less than a month before Election Day. Three percent support a third party candidate while 8% say they are still undecided.

 

Biden - 51
Trump - 37

I'd love to believe this but not sure I buy it.  If 7-8% of people changed their mind just because Trump got the virus then I'm not sure if they've been paying attention and if that changes their mind, who knows what else may change it.

[massraider]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_100620/

Biden opens double digit lead in PA. 

[Coach Morris Buttermaker]

15 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce 

 

Catching coronavirus has been disastrous for President Trump’s re-election hopes, with support for the president plummeting since news of the infection broke, allowing Democratic nominee Joe Biden to open a commanding double-digit lead, a new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll shows.

The nationwide poll reveals that instead of a sympathy factor for Trump, there’s been a stunning drop in the Republican president’s poll numbers since he revealed his diagnosis last Friday.

In two days of polling before Trump got COVID, the president trailed Biden by just a 46-41% margin. In the three days of polling after the coronavirus diagnosis, Biden held a 55-34% lead. That means Biden’s lead grew by a whopping 16 points from pre-COVID to post-COVID.

Among all the 1,003 registered voters in the nationwide Franklin Pierce-Herald poll, Biden now holds a 51-37% lead over Trump less than a month before Election Day. Three percent support a third party candidate while 8% say they are still undecided.

 

Biden - 51
Trump - 37

No doubt Biden is up 6-8 pts, but always look at the details on these polls.

this one:

They polled 42.3% Democrats and 31.3% Republicans.

 

[Thunderlips]

I know, I know... "POLLING!!? FLIBBLEDY FLOO!" and " LOLZ.....YEAH HOW DID THE POLLING IN 2016 WORK OUT?"

 

But https://www.270towin.com/ has AZ now as Biden Country.  For the longest time they had it as a tossup.  

[Juxtatarot]

1 hour ago, Coach Morris Buttermaker said:

No doubt Biden is up 6-8 pts, but always look at the details on these polls.

this one:

They polled 42.3% Democrats and 31.3% Republicans.

 

He's probably up at least 9 right now.  I agree that +21 seems really far fetched.

But the point I want to make it is very uncertain what percent of the population is Republican, Democrat and independent and that's constantly shifting.  Most seem to agree that the number of Democrats exceeds the number of Republicans. But by how much and what should the sampling look like?  It's unanswerable.

[caustic]

Rasmussen Reports (C+):

NATIONAL
Biden 52% (+12) 
Trump 40%

Cherry Communications (B/C):

FLORIDA
Biden 49% (+5)
Trump 44%

Data Orbital (A/B):

ARIZONA
Biden 48% (+5)
Trump 43%

[BobbyLayne]

8 minutes ago, caustic said:

Rasmussen Reports (C+):

NATIONAL
Biden 52% (+12) 
Trump 40%

Cherry Communications (B/C):

FLORIDA
Biden 49% (+5)
Trump 44%

Data Orbital (A/B):

ARIZONA
Biden 48% (+5)
Trump 43%

factoring in the Rasmussen bias, that's like +10 to% +17% In reality

[Juxtatarot]

18 minutes ago, caustic said:

Rasmussen Reports (C+):

NATIONAL
Biden 52% (+12) 
Trump 40%

 

It's so weird that Rasmussen has seemingly leaned in Trump's favor for months (years?) but the last few cycles have seemed to be outliers to Biden's advantage.  Have you read anything about them changing methodologies? 

[caustic]

10 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

It's so weird that Rasmussen has seemingly leaned in Trump's favor for months (years?) but the last few cycles have seemed to be outliers to Biden's advantage.  Have you read anything about them changing methodologies? 

I haven’t, but my theory is that it’s a sign of Biden’s strength with seniors. Rasmussen uses a mix of online + phone surveys to conduct their polls, and for the phone portion, they only call landlines (and only on weeknights and weekends). That’s always tilted their results in favor of Republicans, but the tables seem to have turned now. 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

32 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

It's so weird that Rasmussen has seemingly leaned in Trump's favor for months (years?) but the last few cycles have seemed to be outliers to Biden's advantage.  Have you read anything about them changing methodologies? 

something about rats and sinking ships

[caustic]

NYT/Siena (A+):

OHIO
Biden 45%
Trump 44%

NEVADA
Biden 48%
Trump 42%

[Juxtatarot]

Iowa

Oct 3-6

Civiqs (B/C)

Biden 48% Trump 47%

 

[BobbyLayne]

3 minutes ago, caustic said:

NYT/Siena (A+):

OHIO
Biden 45%
Trump 44%

NEVADA
Biden 48%
Trump 42%

Less worried about OH this year the way PA, MI & WI lining up.

Nevada and Iowa are surprising but that’s like, what, 6 Electors each?

The fact that AZ and TX are in play tells you how bad it is for Trump. He’s floundering badly rn.

[Juxtatarot]

Texas

OCT 3-6, 2020

Civiqs (B/C)

Biden 48%

Trump 48%

[Juxtatarot]

Just now, BobbyLayne said:

Less worried about OH this year the way PA, MI & WI lining up.

Nevada and Iowa are surprising but that’s like, what, 6 Electors each?

The fact that AZ and TX are in play tells you how bad it is for Trump. He’s floundering badly rn.

The big thing to me about winning states like OH or IA is it can provide a buffer in making the election harder to challenge.  The more states above 270 electoral college votes the better.

[Drunken Cowboy]

2 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

The big thing to me about winning states like OH or IA is it can provide a buffer in making the election harder to challenge.  The more states above 270 electoral college votes the better.

I also think a resounding defeat is important to steer the GOP away from Trumpism. 

[BobbyLayne]

Per 270 to Win’s Polling - you can choose like 9 different methods - Trump only has 125 Electors, Biden 279, and 134 are a Toss Up.

Consensus paints a slightly less bleak outlook for the incumbent:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast

[BobbyLayne]

3 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

The big thing to me about winning states like OH or IA is it can provide a buffer in making the election harder to challenge.  The more states above 270 electoral college votes the better.

Right, especially this year when it seems probable we won’t have enough mail-in votes counted to declare a winner on November 3rd.

[caustic]

Marquette Law (A/B):

WISCONSIN
Biden 46%
Trump 41%
Jorgensen 4%

[Drunken Cowboy]

2 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Right, especially this year when it seems probable we won’t have enough mail-in votes counted to declare a winner on November 3rd.

This is only if it is close. I expect a big enough Biden win to declare on Nov 3rd. 

[KiddLattimer]

3 minutes ago, caustic said:

Marquette Law (A/B):

WISCONSIN
Biden 46%
Trump 41%
Jorgensen 4%

Wow I'm surprised she's pulling that much support

Edited October 7, 2020 by KiddLattimer

[mrip541]

1 hour ago, Juxtatarot said:

It's so weird that Rasmussen has seemingly leaned in Trump's favor for months (years?) but the last few cycles have seemed to be outliers to Biden's advantage.  Have you read anything about them changing methodologies? 

I'd hazard a guess that their landline polling method picks up a lot of seniors.

Edited October 7, 2020 by mrip541

[Tolstoy]

19 minutes ago, KiddLattimer said:

Wow I'm surprised she's pulling that much support

saw my first Jorgensen sign today!

[CentralPA]

Polls are kinda reflecting this aren't they?

[caustic]

Quinnipiac (B+):

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 54%
Trump 41%

FLORIDA
Biden 51%
Trump 40%

IOWA
Biden 50%
Trump 45%

[mrip541]

28 minutes ago, caustic said:

Quinnipiac (B+):

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 54%
Trump 41%

FLORIDA
Biden 51%
Trump 40%

IOWA
Biden 50%
Trump 45%

Those numbers are kind of hard for me to believe, even though I want them to be accurate.

[Biff84]

49 minutes ago, mrip541 said:

I'd hazard a guess that their landline polling method picks up a lot of seniors.

Yeah that’s exactly the difference. There has been a significant shift in elderly voters switching from Trump to Biden likely due to COVID. Rasmussen’s methodology that normally shifts it significantly Republican is now displaying this elderly loss for Trump. If the trend continues, Rasmussen could actually end up looking worse for Trump than other polls.

[Juxtatarot]

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
 · 25m
Our current polling averages in the most likely tipping-point states:

National: Biden +9.4

PA: Biden +6.9
FL: Biden +4.5
WI: Biden +6.9
MI: Biden +7.7
AZ: Biden +4.6
NC: Biden +2.3
MN: Biden +9.5
NV: Biden +6.6
OH: Biden +0.7
GA: Biden +1.0

 

[caustic]

5 minutes ago, mrip541 said:

Those numbers are kind of hard for me to believe, even though I want them to be accurate.

Yeah, Quinnipiac has a bit of a Dem house effect, particularly in Florida, where they were off by 7 points in both the Gov/Senate races in 2018. Nobody’s going to be winning FL by 11.

[Drunken Cowboy]

14 minutes ago, mrip541 said:

Those numbers are kind of hard for me to believe, even though I want them to be accurate.

This goes along with the national polls showing double digit leads for Biden.

[Anarchy99]

The most recent 538 update has Biden +9.4 nationally and 84% to win the election (projected at 342-196). Those are pretty much the best numbers Biden has posted so far.

[[scooter]]

7 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

The most recent 538 update has Biden +9.4 nationally and 84% to win the election (projected at 342-196). Those are pretty much the best numbers Biden has posted so far.

Not only is it the best number that 538 has projected for Biden so far, but it's 5 points higher than their previous peak for Biden, and it's 2.2% higher than their forecast for Hillary Clinton at this time in 2016.

(Which makes me quite worried, of course.)

[caustic]

Fox News (A-)

NATIONAL
Biden 53%
Trump 43%

Net favorability:
Biden +16
Harris +13
Pence -1
Trump -10