massraider
Footballguy
Campaign manager: Hmm, so it seems seniors don't like it when thousands of them die, and the candidate downplays the seriousness of the virus. Huh. OK, good to know, someone write that down....
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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Gr00vus
Footballguy
It's remarkable how tone deaf Trump's current "marketing campaign" in relation to Covid is if the goal is to win an election. It's playing great with his base, but beyond that he's alienating people he needs to vote for him in a way that will be very difficult to recover from. He's actively shrinking his own bubble.
gianmarco
Footballguy
So, we know there was Russian interference in the 2016 election. We don't need to discuss whether or not it was actively encouraged by the current administration, so we'll just stick with what was stated with certainty.
Is there any talk or evidence of similar attempts in 2020? Would we even know if that were the case?
Is there any talk or evidence of similar attempts in 2020? Would we even know if that were the case?
gianmarco
Footballguy
Seems there is:
First link
Second link
Third link
Fourth link (with the following below)
New whistleblower complaint
Democrats' concerns that the White House is intentionally playing down the threat from Russia for Trump's benefit were exacerbated this week by a new whistleblower complaint alleging acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf instructed DHS officials to "cease providing intelligence assessments on the threat of Russian interference," and focus activities carried out by China and Iran.
"This is clearly part of a pattern where they put pressure on the agencies to adopt, manipulate, color their analysis, because if they tell the truth, it will be embarrassing to the president," House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Thursday. "It's dangerous, because if they're not sharing this information with the American people, the country isn't protected.
Trump's Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe has also cut off in-person election interference briefings for members of Congress, a move that Democrats charge puts the public at risk of being duped by Russian interference again in 2020.
DHS said in a statement following the whistleblower complaint that the "allegations are patently untrue." But both the House and Senate Intelligence Committees are investigating the charges in the whistleblower reprisal complaint filed by Brian Murphy, who previously oversaw the intelligence division at the department.
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Sammy3469
Footballguy
Is it though, I mean a large portion of the 65+ was his base last time (he won that age group 52% to 45% in 2016) and he's seemingly lost a large portion of it. The only thing he's really holding onto are the 30-65 white men.
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Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Yes/no/maybe.
I think the education weighting is important - albeit not earth-shattering.
Trump, in particular, has had an advantage among non-college educated voters, and has seemingly targeted that group in campaigns - and that should be captured in the make-up of the expected electorate.
In a future election, maybe the education weighting is less important.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
He got historic turnout from this group in 2016. I don't think that can be repeated. Clinton as his opponent drove a lot of this.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
That's basically my point - he's catering to the "Trump guy/gal" base. He had been drawing in a decent amount of senior citizens too for various reasons, but this latest line of "appeal" seems like a last straw for what was already a diminishing component of his voting block.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
I wonder if any pollsters have adjusted their sampling to account for the higher proportion of Democrats who will be using mail-in ballots. Since mail-in ballots are more likely to be invalidated, that's a significant advantage for Republicans.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
I know there have been a lot of polls that have asked by what means the voter intends to vote. Wouldn't mail-ins possibly be more reliable though? A lot of in-person voters may end up not voting due to family or work obligations, emergencies, laziness, weather, etc.
Sammy3469
Footballguy
Unsurprisingly there's been a decent number of discussions between the polling geeks on Twitter. The rough consensus seems to be they'd all prefer the standard LV screens over breakouts since you may end up with skews from small sample sizes.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
There are so many variables that I'm not sure if they can all be plugged in to the polls. Normally, absentee ballots are rejected about 0.3% more often than regular ballots. But I would imagine that the rejection rate would be much higher in 2020, simply because so many more people are doing it. Then you have to factor the reduced number of dropboxes in certain states. Then you have to factor the increased COVID transmission in various states -- for example, I bet the in-person turnout will be much lower in Wisconsin (where cases are spiking) compared to Michigan or Minnesota (where cases are more flat).
When you combine those factors with the enthusiasm of Trump voters and their willingness to risk death to vote, I think it gives a significant advantage to Trump.
Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce
Catching coronavirus has been disastrous for President Trump’s re-election hopes, with support for the president plummeting since news of the infection broke, allowing Democratic nominee Joe Biden to open a commanding double-digit lead, a new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll shows.
The nationwide poll reveals that instead of a sympathy factor for Trump, there’s been a stunning drop in the Republican president’s poll numbers since he revealed his diagnosis last Friday.
In two days of polling before Trump got COVID, the president trailed Biden by just a 46-41% margin. In the three days of polling after the coronavirus diagnosis, Biden held a 55-34% lead. That means Biden’s lead grew by a whopping 16 points from pre-COVID to post-COVID.
Among all the 1,003 registered voters in the nationwide Franklin Pierce-Herald poll, Biden now holds a 51-37% lead over Trump less than a month before Election Day. Three percent support a third party candidate while 8% say they are still undecided.
Biden - 51
Trump - 37
Catching coronavirus has been disastrous for President Trump’s re-election hopes, with support for the president plummeting since news of the infection broke, allowing Democratic nominee Joe Biden to open a commanding double-digit lead, a new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll shows.
The nationwide poll reveals that instead of a sympathy factor for Trump, there’s been a stunning drop in the Republican president’s poll numbers since he revealed his diagnosis last Friday.
In two days of polling before Trump got COVID, the president trailed Biden by just a 46-41% margin. In the three days of polling after the coronavirus diagnosis, Biden held a 55-34% lead. That means Biden’s lead grew by a whopping 16 points from pre-COVID to post-COVID.
Among all the 1,003 registered voters in the nationwide Franklin Pierce-Herald poll, Biden now holds a 51-37% lead over Trump less than a month before Election Day. Three percent support a third party candidate while 8% say they are still undecided.
Biden - 51
Trump - 37
H Jass
Footballguy
Who are these undecided voters and how can I get a hold of some the beautiful bliss they must experience skipping through life!?!!?
Too hard to tell -but my guess is many of these are former Republicans who want to vote for some of Trump's policies, but can't stomach all that entails. They are more likely to stay home, than vote Biden.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I'd love to believe this but not sure I buy it. If 7-8% of people changed their mind just because Trump got the virus then I'm not sure if they've been paying attention and if that changes their mind, who knows what else may change it.
massraider
Footballguy
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_100620/
Biden opens double digit lead in PA.
Biden opens double digit lead in PA.
Coach Morris Buttermaker
Footballguy
No doubt Biden is up 6-8 pts, but always look at the details on these polls.Sinn Fein said:
this one:
They polled 42.3% Democrats and 31.3% Republicans.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
I know, I know... "POLLING!!? FLIBBLEDY FLOO!" and " LOLZ.....YEAH HOW DID THE POLLING IN 2016 WORK OUT?"
But https://www.270towin.com/ has AZ now as Biden Country. For the longest time they had it as a tossup.
But https://www.270towin.com/ has AZ now as Biden Country. For the longest time they had it as a tossup.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
He's probably up at least 9 right now. I agree that +21 seems really far fetched.
But the point I want to make it is very uncertain what percent of the population is Republican, Democrat and independent and that's constantly shifting. Most seem to agree that the number of Democrats exceeds the number of Republicans. But by how much and what should the sampling look like? It's unanswerable.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
It's so weird that Rasmussen has seemingly leaned in Trump's favor for months (years?) but the last few cycles have seemed to be outliers to Biden's advantage. Have you read anything about them changing methodologies?
caustic
Footballguy
I haven’t, but my theory is that it’s a sign of Biden’s strength with seniors. Rasmussen uses a mix of online + phone surveys to conduct their polls, and for the phone portion, they only call landlines (and only on weeknights and weekends). That’s always tilted their results in favor of Republicans, but the tables seem to have turned now.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Iowa
Oct 3-6
Civiqs (B/C)
Biden 48% Trump 47%
Oct 3-6
Civiqs (B/C)
Biden 48% Trump 47%
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Less worried about OH this year the way PA, MI & WI lining up.
Nevada and Iowa are surprising but that’s like, what, 6 Electors each?
The fact that AZ and TX are in play tells you how bad it is for Trump. He’s floundering badly rn.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Texas
OCT 3-6, 2020
Civiqs (B/C)
Biden 48%
Trump 48%
OCT 3-6, 2020
Civiqs (B/C)
Biden 48%
Trump 48%
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
The big thing to me about winning states like OH or IA is it can provide a buffer in making the election harder to challenge. The more states above 270 electoral college votes the better.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Per 270 to Win’s Polling - you can choose like 9 different methods - Trump only has 125 Electors, Biden 279, and 134 are a Toss Up.
Consensus paints a slightly less bleak outlook for the incumbent:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast
Consensus paints a slightly less bleak outlook for the incumbent:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Right, especially this year when it seems probable we won’t have enough mail-in votes counted to declare a winner on November 3rd.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
This is only if it is close. I expect a big enough Biden win to declare on Nov 3rd.
KiddLattimer
Footballguy
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mrip541
Footballguy
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mrip541
Footballguy
Those numbers are kind of hard for me to believe, even though I want them to be accurate.
Yeah that’s exactly the difference. There has been a significant shift in elderly voters switching from Trump to Biden likely due to COVID. Rasmussen’s methodology that normally shifts it significantly Republican is now displaying this elderly loss for Trump. If the trend continues, Rasmussen could actually end up looking worse for Trump than other polls.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Code:
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
· 25m
Our current polling averages in the most likely tipping-point states:
National: Biden +9.4
PA: Biden +6.9
FL: Biden +4.5
WI: Biden +6.9
MI: Biden +7.7
AZ: Biden +4.6
NC: Biden +2.3
MN: Biden +9.5
NV: Biden +6.6
OH: Biden +0.7
GA: Biden +1.0caustic
Footballguy
Yeah, Quinnipiac has a bit of a Dem house effect, particularly in Florida, where they were off by 7 points in both the Gov/Senate races in 2018. Nobody’s going to be winning FL by 11.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
[scooter]
Footballguy
Not only is it the best number that 538 has projected for Biden so far, but it's 5 points higher than their previous peak for Biden, and it's 2.2% higher than their forecast for Hillary Clinton at this time in 2016.
(Which makes me quite worried, of course.)
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