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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (1 Viewer)

Wildudes said:
Yeah, weird Austin / Harris Co. went for Hillary in 2016, correct?
Click to expand...
Harris County (Houston) 2016 results:

Harris County

100% Reporting

D H. Clinton 54.2% 706,471

R D. Trump 41.8% 544,960

L G. Johnson 3.0% 39,701

G J. Stein 0.9% 11,755

Travis County (Austin) 2016 results:

Travis County

100% Reporting

D H. Clinton 66.3% 306,475

R D. Trump 27.4% 126,750

L G. Johnson 4.7% 21,866

G J. Stein 1.6% 7,420

 
Yo Mama said:
Reports of huge amounts of early voting in Texas:  Tweet link

Wow. Polls still haven’t closed because of long lines in Harris County (#Houston), but with 128,000 voters and counting we have surpassed the entire state of Georgia’s first-day turnout yesterday. Our old record was 68k. Just remarkable.
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Yo Mama said:
Saw similar reports from Austin and also continued high numbers of new/early voters in Florida. 
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Encouraging. A lot of shenanigans to suppress votes - closing polling locations, fake fear mongering robocalls, a demagogue undermining the process daily.

People are taking the country back.

 
bigbottom said:
Harris County (Houston) 2016 results:

Harris County

100% Reporting

D H. Clinton 54.2% 706,471

R D. Trump 41.8% 544,960

L G. Johnson 3.0% 39,701

G J. Stein 0.9% 11,755

Travis County (Austin) 2016 results:

Travis County

100% Reporting

D H. Clinton 66.3% 306,475

R D. Trump 27.4% 126,750

L G. Johnson 4.7% 21,866

G J. Stein 1.6% 7,420
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SOOO curious what the 2020 #s will look like. 

 
Gr00vus said:
It's important that there's as much consensus as possible. It would make bogus claims of vote fraud less plausible when they're made against like 2/3 of the states in the Union.
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"Biden got 325 electoral votes?? Man, can you believe how widespread the voter fraud is?"

-guys in Oakleys, and my grandma, on Facebook

 
Gr00vus said:
It's important that there's as much consensus as possible. It would make bogus claims of vote fraud less plausible when they're made against like 2/3 of the states in the Union.
Click to expand...
A likely issue will be that several states won't be able to count the flood of mail in ballots on election day. And with several battleground states close enough that the mailed in ballots will determine who won the state, things have a really good chance of getting messy. Some places are suggesting that the mail in ballots will be 70% Democrats / 30% Republicans. I also saw that only 43% of voters were expected to vote in person on election day (with the remainder either voting early or by mail).

So at the end of election night, Trump may actually appear to be ahead in multiple states based on the totals of mail in voting not being included. That's why he is trying to run interference as much as possible on mail in ballots, fraud, submittals past the deadline, etc. And it's a safe bet that if Trump is leading at the end of the night, he will declare himself the winner and try hard to get the uncounted ballots thrown out. Biden could end up carrying a ton of states . . . but that may not be initially clear on election night.

 
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Anarchy99 said:
A likely issue will be that several states won't be able to count the flood of mail in ballots on election day. And with several battleground states close enough that the mailed in ballots will determine who won the state, things have a really good chance of getting messy. Some places are suggesting that the mail in ballots will be 70% Democrats / 30% Republicans. I also saw that only 43% of voters were expected to vote in person on election day (with the remainder either voting early or by mail).

So at the end of election night, Trump may actually appear to be ahead in multiple states based on the totals of mail in voting not being included. That's why he is trying to run interference as much as possible on mail in ballots, fraud, submittals past the deadline, etc. And it's a safe bet that if Trump is leading at the end of the night, he will declare himself the winner and try hard to get the uncounted ballots thrown out. Biden could end up carrying a ton of states . . . but that may not be initially clear on election night.
Click to expand...
Donald Trump likely will not even wait for the polls to close to declare he won. He may even start doing so in the upcoming days. He's definitely declaring himself the winner. Believe it. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
A likely issue will be that several states won't be able to count the flood of mail in ballots on election day. And with several battleground states close enough that the mailed in ballots will determine who won the state, things have a really good chance of getting messy. Some places are suggesting that the mail in ballots will be 70% Democrats / 30% Republicans. I also saw that only 43% of voters were expected to vote in person on election day (with the remainder either voting early or by mail).

So at the end of election night, Trump may actually appear to be ahead in multiple states based on the totals of mail in voting not being included. That's why he is trying to run interference as much as possible on mail in ballots, fraud, submittals past the deadline, etc. And it's a safe bet that if Trump is leading at the end of the night, he will declare himself the winner and try hard to get the uncounted ballots thrown out. Biden could end up carrying a ton of states . . . but that may not be initially clear on election night.
Click to expand...
it's been a definite possibility for months

but I suspect Biden is gonna crush this so bad

not because anyone is excited about Joe or Kamala but simply because I believe decency and normalcy will prevail

the country is collectively fed up with all the drama and want to get the lunatic out of there

 
caustic said:
NYT/Siena (A+)

NORTH CAROLINA
Biden 46%
Trump 42%

(Was Biden 45, Trump 44 last month)
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My concern about polls like this is there's still 12% unaccounted for. And then there's a margin for error of 4.5 points. Basically, there's still a lot of unknown in the poll results. I don't think it is that far out of the question for Trump to carry NC. On the flip side, Biden may not need to win NC and could have enough other states locked up to win the day.

 
Wildudes said:
Yeah, weird Austin / Harris Co. went for Hillary in 2016, correct?
Click to expand...
Now line this up with the Governor's order to remove drop off boxes to limit one per county, and see which counties are most adversely impacted. Then see what happened in the courts when this was challenged. 

Voter suppression is despicable. I always assumed everyone universally wanted all Americans to vote. You know, to decide the election based on what people want? Naive, for sure. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
My concern about polls like this is there's still 12% unaccounted for. And then there's a margin for error of 4.5 points. Basically, there's still a lot of unknown in the poll results. I don't think it is that far out of the question for Trump to carry NC. On the flip side, Biden may not need to win NC and could have enough other states locked up to win the day.
Click to expand...
Trump will win NC, and they will keep the Republican senator. No link, but Biden carrying NC isn't happening. 

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Trump will win NC, and they will keep the Republican senator. No link, but Biden carrying NC isn't happening. 
Click to expand...
Cunningham seems to still be polling better than he was pre-texting news. 538 shows him in the +4 to +10 point range in almost all of this week's polls. They give him a 66% chance to win. RCP has him +4.3 points. Election Betting Odds has him at 63% to win. Maybe it's just a case that they are polling the wrong people or the answers they are getting aren't accurate. I am not convinced Cunningham will hold on to win, but IMO it could go either way.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Cunningham seems to still be polling better than he was pre-texting news. 538 shows him in the +4 to +10 point range in almost all of this week's polls. They give him a 66% chance to win. RCP has him +4.3 points. Election Betting Odds has him at 63% to win. Maybe it's just a case that they are polling the wrong people or the answers they are getting aren't accurate. I am not convinced Cunningham will hold on to win, but IMO it could go either way.
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1316425536789458945?s=21

 
BobbyLayne said:
it's been a definite possibility for months

but I suspect Biden is gonna crush this so bad

not because anyone is excited about Joe or Kamala but simply because I believe decency and normalcy will prevail

the country is collectively fed up with all the drama and want to get the lunatic out of there
Click to expand...
I fervently believed in the country in 2016. But now he has a record to defend and I hope that will make the difference. Plus seems the older voters have seen enough.  

 
Juxtatarot said:
The FiveThirtyEight model currently gives Biden a 66% chance of winning North Carolina.  You give him what? 0%? Just < 50%?
Click to expand...
Tough to throw around percentages, but I'll go with ~25%. Long shot certainly. Looks a lot like a Clinton redux, where they both (Clinton and Biden) seemingly can't break through 50%. 

 
caustic said:
Quinnipiac (B+):

OHIO
Biden 48%
Trump 47%

GEORGIA
Biden 51%
Trump 44%
Click to expand...
If the current polls are right, Biden has a clear path to winning, and battleground states like OH, GA, NC, AZ, and FL might not matter. 538 is still showing:

99%: DC (3), MA (11), HI (4), VT (3), MD (10), CA (55), NY (29), RI (4), DE (3), WA (12), CT (7), IL (20), VA (13)
98%: NJ (14), ME1 (1)
97%: OR (7), NM (5)
94%: CO (9)
91%: MN (10), MI (16)
90%: ME (2)
88%: WI (10), PA (20)
86%: NV (6)
85%: NH (4)

That adds up to 278 electoral votes (270 needed to win). Trump can't win unless he carries one or two of these states (depending upon their electoral votes). Which state(s) on this list do people feel he has a great chance to win in?
 

 
Anarchy99 said:
If the current polls are right, Biden has a clear path to winning, and battleground states like OH, GA, NC, AZ, and FL might not matter. 538 is still showing:

99%: DC (3), MA (11), HI (4), VT (3), MD (10), CA (55), NY (29), RI (4), DE (3), WA (12), CT (7), IL (20), VA (13)
98%: NJ (14), ME1 (1)
97%: OR (7), NM (5)
94%: CO (9)
91%: MN (10), MI (16)
90%: ME (2)
88%: WI (10), PA (20)
86%: NV (6)
85%: NH (4)

That adds up to 278 electoral votes (270 needed to win). Trump can't win unless he carries one or two of these states (depending upon their electoral votes). Which state(s) on this list do people feel he has a great chance to win in?
 
Click to expand...
I wouldn't say "great" at all,  but If I were to pick say 2, it would be MI and PA, NV close behind

 
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Anarchy99 said:
If the current polls are right, Biden has a clear path to winning, and battleground states like OH, GA, NC, AZ, and FL might not matter. 538 is still showing:

99%: DC (3), MA (11), HI (4), VT (3), MD (10), CA (55), NY (29), RI (4), DE (3), WA (12), CT (7), IL (20), VA (13)
98%: NJ (14), ME1 (1)
97%: OR (7), NM (5)
94%: CO (9)
91%: MN (10), MI (16)
90%: ME (2)
88%: WI (10), PA (20)
86%: NV (6)
85%: NH (4)

That adds up to 278 electoral votes (270 needed to win). Trump can't win unless he carries one or two of these states (depending upon their electoral votes). Which state(s) on this list do people feel he has a great chance to win in?
 
Click to expand...
PA, WI and MI. Fool me once and all that. 

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
You asked for a number, I indulged, lol.  

NC will be a long shot. I stick with the original statement. If Biden and Cal win NC, I will be very surprised. 
Click to expand...
I'm sorry if I'm being rude.  I just think it's crazy how so many people have these strong opinions on who will win what states.  I just accept that I don't personally have the expertise to understand a race better than the experts such as the folks at FiveThirtyEight.  

 
Juxtatarot said:
I'm sorry if I'm being rude.  I just think it's crazy how so many people have these strong opinions on who will win what states.  I just accept that I don't personally have the expertise to understand a race better than the experts such as the folks at FiveThirtyEight.  
Click to expand...
Understood 100%.

In 2016 I'd visit 538 and RealClearPolitics daily. Checking the state races, building EC maps, etc. I work in market research, I generally trust survey data (no choice, I can't very well conduct a study, present the findings, and be skeptical).

After 2016, I'm factoring the entire MOE for Trump, baking in voter suppression, and adding a bit of gut about the state itself. No kind of science or methodology that I can defend, frankly.

Based on this NC, SC, GA and FL are all going to be carried by Trump IMO.

I do think Biden will carry AZ, ME and the upper Midwest states with the exception of OH, and that is what will win it for Biden. Not the SE states.

Strong opinions? Tough to say, I don't go at this with 100% certainty at all. But I'll go on record in the polling thread, why not.  

 
Anarchy99 said:
Just for comparison purposes . . .

2016 PA (HC 77% chance to win) . . . 2020 PA (JB 88% chance to win)
2016 WI (HC 83.5% chance to win) . . . 2020 WI (JB 88% chance to win)
2016 MI (HC 85% chance to win) . . . 2020 MIC (JB 91% chance to win)
Click to expand...
Different assumptions built in. Not apples to apples. 

 
Juxtatarot said:
I'm sorry if I'm being rude.  I just think it's crazy how so many people have these strong opinions on who will win what states.  I just accept that I don't personally have the expertise to understand a race better than the experts such as the folks at FiveThirtyEight.  
Click to expand...
that sort humility is not gonna win I-fights guy

finding MH370, wildfire management, pandemic response - whatever you need, we got keyboard experts all around ready to assist 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Just for comparison purposes . . .

2016 PA (HC 77% chance to win) . . . 2020 PA (JB 88% chance to win)
2016 WI (HC 83.5% chance to win) . . . 2020 WI (JB 88% chance to win)
2016 MI (HC 85% chance to win) . . . 2020 MIC (JB 91% chance to win)
Click to expand...
If you look at the actual differences in the polls you see a very different story. 

 
Drunken Cowboy said:
If you look at the actual differences in the polls you see a very different story. 
Click to expand...
2016 PA (HC +3.7 ) . . . 2020 PA (JB  +7.1)
2016 WI (HC +5.3) . . . 2020 WI (JB  +7.8)
2016 MI (HC +4.2) . . . 2020 MI (JB +7.9)

As others have said, 538 has augmented and refined their predictive models since 2016, so who knows if that makes their approach more accurate, less accurate, or the same.

 
Juxtatarot said:
I'm sorry if I'm being rude.  I just think it's crazy how so many people have these strong opinions on who will win what states.  I just accept that I don't personally have the expertise to understand a race better than the experts such as the folks at FiveThirtyEight.  
Click to expand...
No one wants to have their optimism rubbed in their face for another four years. 

One crazy back door cover has turned liberals into Lions fans. 

 
Wildudes said:
Anarchy99 said:
If the current polls are right, Biden has a clear path to winning, and battleground states like OH, GA, NC, AZ, and FL might not matter. 538 is still showing:

99%: DC (3), MA (11), HI (4), VT (3), MD (10), CA (55), NY (29), RI (4), DE (3), WA (12), CT (7), IL (20), VA (13)
98%: NJ (14), ME1 (1)
97%: OR (7), NM (5)
94%: CO (9)
91%: MN (10), MI (16)
90%: ME (2)
88%: WI (10), PA (20)
86%: NV (6)
85%: NH (4)

That adds up to 278 electoral votes (270 needed to win). Trump can't win unless he carries one or two of these states (depending upon their electoral votes). Which state(s) on this list do people feel he has a great chance to win in?
 
Click to expand...
I wouldn't say "great" at all,  but If I were to pick say 2, it would be MI and PA, NV close behind
Click to expand...
Wisconsin is a coin toss.   

 
Reuters/Ipsos (B-):

NATIONAL
Biden 51%
Trump 41%

FLORIDA
Biden 49%
Trump 47%

ARIZONA
Biden 50%
Trump 46%

Data for Progress (B-):

SOUTH CAROLINA
Trump 52%
Biden 43%

GEORGIA
Biden 46%
Trump 46%

 
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That Florida result for Reuters represents an uptick for Trump - he was at 45% in that poll last week.

 
NBC/WSJ (A-):

NATIONAL
Biden 53%
Trump 42%

Looks familiar! FiveThirtyEight Trump approval averages:

Disapprove 53.6%
Approve 43.2%

 
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