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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (1 Viewer)

Joe Summer said:
They added 41 polls today, a few of which show Trump with good numbers in North Carolina and Florida. The polls are also tightening in Nevada.
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Yeah, those were a lot of bad news for Biden. The NC, Fla dreams are slipping away. Maybe AZ too.

 
Gr00vus said:
Yeah, those were a lot of bad news for Biden. The NC, Fla dreams are slipping away. Maybe AZ too.
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So can we get some type of metric in place so we can determine when and where polls can be trusted? 

I ask because for a long time, apparently polls showing Trump trailing aren't accurate, so wouldn't it stand to reason that polls showing differently may also have questionable veracity?

 
Here is where 538 is at. Nate Silver said he has Trump getting a 0.2 bump for all states with Trump as the incumbent, but he said that will come out after tomorrow and Biden’s chances will get a little nudge accordingly. 

MN 95% +9.2
MI 95% +8.2
WI 94% +8.3
NV 87% +5.1
PA 85% +5.0
AZ 70% +3.1
NC 66% +2.1
FL 64% +1.8
GA 58% +1.6
OH 50% -0.3
IA 36% -1.7
TX 34% -1.4

 
That being said, if the GOP plays best ball polling, here is where they stand using the best poll result in each state from this week:

MN -3
MI +2
WI -3
NV -2
PA +2
AZ +4
NC +4
FL +3
GA +3
OH +3
IA +7
TX +4

So the narrative they are spinning is Trump is going to win and can far exceed 270.

 
Emerson College (A-):

FLORIDA
Biden 52%
Trump 46%

MAINE 2ND DISTRICT
Biden 50%
Trump 47%

TEXAS
Trump 50%
Biden 49%

GEORGIA
Biden 49%
Trump 49%

NORTH CAROLINA
Biden 47%
Trump 47%

ARIZONA
Biden 48%
Trump 46%

NEVADA
Biden 49%
Trump 47%

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 52%
Trump 47%

 
Anarchy99 said:
That being said, if the GOP plays best ball polling, here is where they stand using the best poll result in each state from this week:

MN -3
MI +2
WI -3
NV -2
PA +2
AZ +4
NC +4
FL +3
GA +3
OH +3
IA +7
TX +4

So the narrative they are spinning is Trump is going to win and can far exceed 270.
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I don’t think this is the narrative they are spinning.

I do a fair bit of reading of both sides.  The hardcore right literally don’t believe the polls are accurate at all, and believe that most trump supporters don’t tell pollsters who they are voting for.  
 

I have no idea or opinion regarding whether their opinion is true, just saying that’s what most people I read on that side think.

 
shader said:
I don’t think this is the narrative they are spinning.

I do a fair bit of reading of both sides.  The hardcore right literally don’t believe the polls are accurate at all, and believe that most trump supporters don’t tell pollsters who they are voting for.  
 

I have no idea or opinion regarding whether their opinion is true, just saying that’s what most people I read on that side think.
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A guy from Trafalgar was on FOX News and mentioned that Trump needed an extra 5% cushion in PA to make up for the extensive voter fraud happening there. Essentially, he was alleging that 1 in every 20 ballots was fraudulent. I guess if people say FRAUD enough times maybe some people will start to believe it. 

As for the numbers I listed off, those were in line with some GOP people outlining Trump’s clear path to victory both online and on tv. Their state numbers were very similar to what I posted. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
IA 36% -1.7
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I had thought Biden was showing a lot stronger in Iowa through, say, two weeks ago. Will stick with the call of Biden taking the state, but it’s looking much iffier lately. Legit late polls? Or chicanery?

 
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Doug B said:
I had thought Biden was showing a lot stronger in Iowa through, say, two weeks. Will stick with the call if Biden taking the state, but it’s looking much officer lately. Legit late polls? Or chicanery?
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The Des Moines newspaper came in +7 for Trump. They are an A+ rated poll. There were also two college polls that had Trump +1. Five of the last six polls have had Trump ahead. So it looks like the climate has changed in Iowa. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
A guy from Trafalgar was on FOX News and mentioned that Trump needed an extra 5% cushion in PA to make up for the extensive voter fraud happening there. Essentially, he was alleging that 1 in every 20 ballots was fraudulent. I guess if people say FRAUD enough times maybe some people will start to believe it. 

 
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IMO if someone goes on TV and authoritatively states that accusation without the evidence to back it up, he's committing treason.

 
Anarchy99 said:
A guy from Trafalgar was on FOX News and mentioned that Trump needed an extra 5% cushion in PA to make up for the extensive voter fraud happening there. Essentially, he was alleging that 1 in every 20 ballots was fraudulent. I guess if people say FRAUD enough times maybe some people will start to believe it. 
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Just a totally unserious pollster. A while back he went on Hannity and claimed that the only way Biden could win PA is through fraud — which was interesting, because at that point Trafalgar’s most recent PA poll showed Biden in the lead. :lol:  

 
shader said:
I don’t think this is the narrative they are spinning.

I do a fair bit of reading of both sides.  The hardcore right literally don’t believe the polls are accurate at all, and believe that most trump supporters don’t tell pollsters who they are voting for.  
 

I have no idea or opinion regarding whether their opinion is true, just saying that’s what most people I read on that side think.
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Do you have any idea or opinion on whether that seems reasonable? Let's just say hypothetically, given your lifelong observation of human nature. Do you think it's probable (more likely than not) that one side is answering polls truthfully and the other side is answering polls in a less truthful way? This is happening across the spectrum of conservative voters, with no coordinated effort. Do you think this how you think how masses of people independently operate? I know, you're passing along the message you read. Just curious if that seems plausible to you.

 
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BobbyLayne said:
Do you have any idea or opinion on whether that seems reasonable? Let's just say hypothetically, given your lifelong observation of human nature. Do you think it's probable (more likely than not) that one side is answering polls truthfully and the other side is answering polls in a less truthful way? This is happening across the spectrum of conservative voters, with no coordinated effort. Do you think this how you think how masses of people independently operate? I know, you're passing along the message you read. Just curious if that seems plausible to you.
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Pollster have always known that it’s easier not only to reach some groups of people but also to get them to answer questions.  For example, people with higher levels of education are easier to poll than people with lower levels.  It is plausible to me that some percentage of Trump voters would refuse because they “don’t trust the polls”.

But, in my opinion, that doesn’t mean that polls will be wildly inaccurate. Some of the adjustments they make can help. (For, example, ask them who they voted for in 2016.) Also, there will be undersampling with other groups and those can balance out between the pro-Trump and pro-Biden sides. It’s an imperfect science yet probably the best predictor we have.

 
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Man what happened in Wisconsin to cause such a freaking blowout there — impressive turnaround for the Dems there. 

 
Gr00vus said:
The funny thing will be when he's shown to be losing at the end of Tuesday night and then he will begin demanding every mail in ballot is counted.
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No, he'll just claim widespread fraud and not recognize the results.  Worst case scenario, he encourages his supporters to not recognize them either and take to the streets to prevent the completion of the certification process. 

 
The Z Machine said:
No, he'll just claim widespread fraud and not recognize the results.  Worst case scenario, he encourages his supporters to not recognize them either and take to the streets to prevent the completion of the certification process. 
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I think an issue might be when the enablers around him (I know, that's redundant), stop enabling.  If/when the signs are clear late Tuesday night that he has lost, how long do they keep playing along to his whims?  Or do enough of them stand up to him and tell him, "it's over?"  Who will be the big boy or girl in the room, even if they're basically acting on behalf of their own self-preservation in the immediate aftermath?

 
Drunken Cowboy said:
538:

Biden is clearly favored to win the election
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I posted this in Tim's thread last night . . .

Nate Silver tweeted or posted that if he used just the average of polls instead of the weighted polls, Biden would be a point higher in the battleground states than the range listed. He also said that baked into his probability of winning is allocating 0.2 to Trump in the results as being the incumbent, but Silver said that will fall off in the final snapshot before the election. So it’s quite possible Biden is doing 1.2 points better than the forecast 538 shows. 

The other thing Silver mentioned was a late influx of conservative polls, which he said is basically an attempt to make the polls seem closer than they actually are. So there usually may have been one conservative poll coming in per week in a state. Then over the last week or so some states had 2 or 3  conservative poll results posted every 1 or 2 days. RCP uses an average of the most recent polls, and when half of them are conservative polls, it’s easy to see what appears to be a radical change in the polls. Silver said he will add those results in at 538 but won’t weigh them as much because it’s clear to him what the intent of the polls is. 

Silver tweeted that they ran the simulations again 38 times over the weekend, and all the results came in Biden winning between 88.8% and 89.8% of the time. He seems confident that the probabilities won’t change much in the last few polls that come in. He does not seem phased by the recent polling results and headlines that the race is tightening. I guess we’ll find out soon enough. 

 
tri-man 47 said:
I think an issue might be when the enablers around him (I know, that's redundant), stop enabling.  If/when the signs are clear late Tuesday night that he has lost, how long do they keep playing along to his whims?  Or do enough of them stand up to him and tell him, "it's over?"  Who will be the big boy or girl in the room, even if they're basically acting on behalf of their own self-preservation in the immediate aftermath?
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Remember 4 years ago when people said “just wait until Paul Ryan stands up to Trump?”

 
yak651 said:
Yep really thought Ryan had a bright future. Guess at least he faded away instead of blindly supporting Trump. Wonder when/if he comes back?
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He won’t be back.  Local rumor was that his wife was afraid of him running for president and the impact on their family, safety, etc.

 
yak651 said:
Alex P Keaton said:
Remember 4 years ago when people said “just wait until Paul Ryan stands up to Trump?”
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Yep really thought Ryan had a bright future. Guess at least he faded away instead of blindly supporting Trump. Wonder when/if he comes back?
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He was a never-Trumper, along with other Wisconsin GOP, all supporting Ted Cruz in the 2016 primary.  When it became clear Trump would win, they all flipped. Walker and Ryan were huge Trump cheerleaders and both spoke at the convention.  Neither has every renounced Trump, despite him crapping all over them both repeatedly.  They have less spine than Ted Cruz.  Ryan was the 2012 VP candidate with Mitch, then speaker of the house, all in his 40s.  He's just 50 years old now, might still come back I suppose if the party will have him.

 
CletiusMaximus said:
He was a never-Trumper, along with other Wisconsin GOP, all supporting Ted Cruz in the 2016 primary.  When it became clear Trump would win, they all flipped. Walker and Ryan were huge Trump cheerleaders and both spoke at the convention.  Neither has every renounced Trump, despite him crapping all over them both repeatedly.  They have less spine than Ted Cruz.  Ryan was the 2012 VP candidate with Mitch, then speaker of the house, all in his 40s.  He's just 50 years old now, might still come back I suppose if the party will have him.
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All of that is basically true. Ryan did disinvite Trump to a joint appearance after the Access Hollywood tape, and tried to figure out a way with Preibus to get Trump off the ticket.

 
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It's funny, and I suppose it sort of makes sense, for as much as people question the accuracy of polls in battleground states like Pennsylvania, nobody does for states like Indiana. Do we not believe morning consult when it has Biden up 9 in Pennsylvania, but we do believe morning consult when it has Trump up 11 in Indiana (by the way morning consult had Trump up 17 in Indiana back in August  :oldunsure: ). Do shy Trump voters only exist in battle ground states?

 
Anarchy99 said:
I posted this in Tim's thread last night . . .

Nate Silver tweeted or posted that if he used just the average of polls instead of the weighted polls, Biden would be a point higher in the battleground states than the range listed. He also said that baked into his probability of winning is allocating 0.2 to Trump in the results as being the incumbent, but Silver said that will fall off in the final snapshot before the election. So it’s quite possible Biden is doing 1.2 points better than the forecast 538 shows. 

The other thing Silver mentioned was a late influx of conservative polls, which he said is basically an attempt to make the polls seem closer than they actually are. So there usually may have been one conservative poll coming in per week in a state. Then over the last week or so some states had 2 or 3  conservative poll results posted every 1 or 2 days. RCP uses an average of the most recent polls, and when half of them are conservative polls, it’s easy to see what appears to be a radical change in the polls. Silver said he will add those results in at 538 but won’t weigh them as much because it’s clear to him what the intent of the polls is. 

Silver tweeted that they ran the simulations again 38 times over the weekend, and all the results came in Biden winning between 88.8% and 89.8% of the time. He seems confident that the probabilities won’t change much in the last few polls that come in. He does not seem phased by the recent polling results and headlines that the race is tightening. I guess we’ll find out soon enough. 
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I get why Silver would tweak things a bit when we've run out of road, but I don't know why he'd eliminate any adjustment he makes for Trump being the incumbent. Trump's still the incumbent. Did Silver give any reasoning for removing that particular adjustment? I read their breakdown of their methodology but couldn't find that part.

 
Gr00vus said:
It's funny, and I suppose it sort of makes sense, for as much as people question the accuracy of polls in battleground states like Pennsylvania, nobody does for states like Indiana. Do we not believe morning consult when it has Biden up 9 in Pennsylvania, but we do believe morning consult when it has Trump up 11 in Indiana (by the way morning consult had Trump up 17 in Indiana back in August  :oldunsure: ). Do shy Trump voters only exist in battle ground states?
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Old article but: Indiana is weird

 
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