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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Gr00vus
Footballguy
SHIZNITTTT
Footballguy
Florida a big oil or coal producer? I don't get it.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I would guess that votes not yet counted are from cities and mail in ballots, both of which help Biden.
SHIZNITTTT
Footballguy
polls are so broken
Anarchy99
Footballguy
FOX needs to get their act together. On TV, they just discussed Trump and Tillis have taken the lead with 90% of the vote counted in NC. Yet their website had NC 95% for Dems in President, Senate, and Governor races. I suspect the numbers reflect the in person ballots and / or do not include large chunks of votes in urban areas.
yak651
Footballguy
Driving home just now and on the radio they said Milwaukee county won’t be reporting results until 5am
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
If Arizona flips, and Virginia doesn't flip.
Then Biden needs to win 2 of MI, WI, or PA. And those will take a couple days to add up.
Then Biden needs to win 2 of MI, WI, or PA. And those will take a couple days to add up.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
House projected to stay with the Democrats.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
Only Arizona so far. I think Biden will get Wisconsin, so it will probably come down to PI or MI.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Fox still has Biden at 95% to win NC and 80% to win GA. If he wins those and AZ and NV and one Maine district, if my math is right, that would get him to 269 without WI, MI, PA, the other ME district, and the other NE district still out there.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Biden about to give his acceptance speech
Go Joe!
Go Joe!
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
With such lopsided numbers, one might think there should be a victory lap tonight like most Presidents who are elected on election night.
I'm shocked we don't have a decisive winner tonight. That is absolutely the 1st ingredient in civil unrest. If this thing rolls along to Wed-Thur-Fri...I am scared.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The big problem will be that Trump will be ahead with a satchel of Biden votes waiting in the wings still to be counted. That will be the case in NC, GA, WI, MI, and PA. Who knows how long that will be the case and how many days it will take sort out.Ministry of Pain said:
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
Geez, calm down. It used to be standard procedure to not know the winner on Election Night. Hayes-Tilden, Dewey-Defeats-Truman, Al-Gore's-Chads, etc.Ministry of Pain said:
Besides, it's probably better to draw it out a few days so that it deflates some of the tension and gives the crazies on each side time to prepare for defeat.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
The only thing lengthening it does is allow folks to stockpile molotov cocktails, c'mon now.
bagger
Footballguy
Nobody is afraid of billy Joe Bob threatening a civil war. If a few of these idiots try to do anything they will be summarily dealt with.
This thread shoul probably just be hidden. Forget it ever happened.Just like I predicted the polls were horribly wrong again and nobody should trust them. Ohio recent poll had Biden +5 and he is losing by 8% with 94% reporting.
SHIZNITTTT
Footballguy
people actually make a nice living doing polls? but yet so wrong
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I just woke not knowing much of the results and I leave for 5 days in one hour. This seems like a mess and I’m happy I won’t be following along. Hopefully we’ll know something once I’m back.tri-man 47 said:Aren't you still off hiking or something?
beef
Footballguy
Commented in other threads that my wife works a rural WI polling place. They had 93% voter turnout. She also said they had quite a few new trump voters. People that hadn't ever voted before, not for trump in '16, not for anyone ever. She's assuming here because she didn't see their ballots, but feels rather confident since they all made a pro-trump comment while getting the ballot or yelling "trump" as they walked out.
No way pollsters accounted for these folks.
No way pollsters accounted for these folks.
yak651
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
As the tally keeps going up I've been wondering if this was the case. Did he get even more turnout from the same demo?
beef
Footballguy
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This has been a fantastic example that goes way bigger than polling.
We have to think about the system as a whole. As the big picture.
I'm attracted to smart people. I love the smart things places like 538 does.
Clearly, they have super smart people working there and doing stuff.
But the lesson for us is, "What's the material they're working with?"
For lots of this, the material, the source product, is people answering questions.
We have to ask ourselves, "Why do we trust that?"
Because you can have the most amazing technology and people ever to take those answers and manipulate them, but if the source material is faulty, nothing else matters.
This to me was the big error in 2016 and 2020. And from what I understand, from the Brexit polling.
I have a dozen people I'd say I'm very close to who all voted Trump. They wouldn't remotely consider a Trump bumper sticker. They wouldn't consider truthfully telling a pollster they were Trump voters. Not even close.
We got bad source material for this process of analyzing polls. It sometimes happens. And I think it's a good lesson for much bigger things.
We have to think about the system as a whole. As the big picture.
I'm attracted to smart people. I love the smart things places like 538 does.
Clearly, they have super smart people working there and doing stuff.
But the lesson for us is, "What's the material they're working with?"
For lots of this, the material, the source product, is people answering questions.
We have to ask ourselves, "Why do we trust that?"
Because you can have the most amazing technology and people ever to take those answers and manipulate them, but if the source material is faulty, nothing else matters.
This to me was the big error in 2016 and 2020. And from what I understand, from the Brexit polling.
I have a dozen people I'd say I'm very close to who all voted Trump. They wouldn't remotely consider a Trump bumper sticker. They wouldn't consider truthfully telling a pollster they were Trump voters. Not even close.
We got bad source material for this process of analyzing polls. It sometimes happens. And I think it's a good lesson for much bigger things.
Rich Conway
Footballguy
I get not wanting a yard sign or a bumper sticker. Why would you lie to pollsters? What's the incentive?
The same as the bumper sticker.
You don't say you're supporting Trump so you don't risk being canceled for supporting Trump. It's that simple.
Several of these friends I'm talking about have public facing jobs and depend on the public for their business. They would absolutely not want to run the risk of pushback for voting for Trump.
I totally agree with that.
And I know some people will say "It's all anonymous". These are often the same people who won't even use their real name on a message board forum.
If I voted for Trump, I would never talk about it here on this forum. For the exact same reason.
I can say I voted for Biden here with zero repercussions.
It's just understanding the room.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I think we ultimately end up in a "beauty is in the eye of the beholder" type situation and wondering what is "accurate" information. Clearly the poll numbers had things wrong in a bunch of places . . . but 538 could end up with an accurate overall projection.
Nate Silver will argue that his models and forecasts are all based off of the numbers derived from the individual polls. So if the poll numbers are inaccurate, his forecasts will be inaccurate and it's not his model that is off. And he will say he isn't polling anyone, he is just interpreting the results of the polls. Basically, garbage in, garbage out.
Biden could easily win 5 of the 6 states still out there, as most of the votes still not counted are mail in ballots. I think he will win NV, WI, MI, NC, and GA and who knows what is going on in PA. That would get him over 300 electoral votes. If he went on to take PA, then he would end up pretty close to the range that he was projected in. So yeah, the margin of victory in states will have been off, but the final EV tally and outcome would have been pretty close.
But we still are a long way from calling some states, so for now that is mostly speculation and perhaps premature discussion on the value and accuracy of the polls.
Absolutely.
I think many people, myself included, can fall in love with the all the smart stuff that is done to the material coming in and think it'll be ok. But if it's garbage in, nothing else matters.
Capella
Footballguy
I don’t know if anybody is lying to posters. Most people are not very online like the people who said they would lie are. My dad is a major trumpie and he would never lie like that, in fact he’d be excited to tell a pollster who he was voting for. Most older people are the same imo. Twitter and Facebook where these wild conspiracy theories live are not real life.
The problem with the polls is very clearly their sampling patterns and something with their methodology.
The problem with the polls is very clearly their sampling patterns and something with their methodology.
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Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
I agree. I think the problem is that you can weight all you want, but if your response rate is super low, you have no way of knowing if, for example, the white, college-educated suburban voters who answer your poll are actually the same as the white, college-educated suburban voters who don't answer your poll.
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
jplvr
Footballguy
I asked about that Richard Baris guy a couple of pages back. I honestly didn't know much about him and never heard his name previously, so I listened to his Youtube podcast later that day. He's a clearly biased Republican and was pulling for Trump, but he had the election nailed better than any of the usual polls and the 10+ point kinds of swing state things I saw posted here. I think that was on Friday, but he was far closer to being right about this than any of the usual polls. He didn't say Trump would win, but he was calling for a lot of the swing states being way closer than any of the polls which had clear victories for Biden. Some of the polls being touted by national media had blow-outs for Biden. How can you be that far off and people still say, "well, Biden won, so the polls got it correct"?
Capella
Footballguy
The polls were clearly incorrect but I don’t know why people bash Silver. Guy is just aggregating the polls, not conducting them and he did leave a 10% window where Trump could win due to polling errors. A lot of hatred for that guy and it doesn’t make sense to me.
jplvr
Footballguy
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