caustic
Footballguy
As far as I can tell, there are two big reasons why political scientists think that Black voters' shift is more than a reversion to the pre-Obama mean. First, we see pretty clearly in survey data is that the younger a Black voter is, the less likely they are to be a registered Democrat. Obama was obviously a huge magnet for the Democratic party and temporarily locked up most of those younger Black independents. But now that Obama is out of the picture and those more independent cohorts are getting older (i.e. voting more), a larger percentage of Black voters are susceptible to being picked off by the GOP. This is expected to continue, slowly.
Second, we talk a lot about education-based polarization when it comes to white voters, but it's happening with nonwhite voters as well (just to a lesser degree). On cultural issues, non-college nonwhite voters can have attitudes that are pretty similar to non-college whites, pushing them towards the GOP. Trump's gains among Black and Hispanic voters appear to be concentrated among non-college Black and Hispanic men.
There was definitely some funny business going on down there, but all over the country we saw Dems gain ground with white voters and lose ground with nonwhite voters relative to 2016. We saw it not only in Georgia, but in places like Arizona and Virginia as well.
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