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WR A.J. Brown, PHI (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
Every Titan comes down to if you liked the job of Arthur Smith.
Most people would tell me things like I never roster a TItan except maybe a TE or CJ or Henry. The season starts and maybe someone pops up as a bye week cover.
To FF, the Titans have not been good for much of the last decade.
Arthur Smith was a first year OC that had a bad first half and excellent second half.
Same ol Titans or not?
I think as long as Henry is there, the offense will have some FF usage.
AJ has some David Boston to his game and I saw someone the other day asking if he got bigger during this offseason. It's an oddly fun thought.
I enjoy watching the big Henry wear down a D and the occasional tough WR is like an extra spice added to that.
Every rookie WR must beat the pressing CBs in the NFL and AJ did that in glorious fashion so he's gonna be played normally in 2020. He could not handle double-coverage in the playoffs so he's gotta learn n grow there. I'd expect he's doubled every game until Smith and/or Davis and/or Humphries steps up. I could absolutely see one of them having a big increase in stats from last year but until they do, it might be difficult to be AJ Brown. I'd put AJ at above average.
Does he have that greatness in him where he can beat double-teams consistently? If so then, he's definitely special. He proved a lot last year and flashed without question, it's just overcoming the double-teams. We (FF) can't have a zero or low scoring game just because a D doubled someone.
Most people would tell me things like I never roster a TItan except maybe a TE or CJ or Henry. The season starts and maybe someone pops up as a bye week cover.
To FF, the Titans have not been good for much of the last decade.
Arthur Smith was a first year OC that had a bad first half and excellent second half.
Same ol Titans or not?
I think as long as Henry is there, the offense will have some FF usage.
AJ has some David Boston to his game and I saw someone the other day asking if he got bigger during this offseason. It's an oddly fun thought.
I enjoy watching the big Henry wear down a D and the occasional tough WR is like an extra spice added to that.
Every rookie WR must beat the pressing CBs in the NFL and AJ did that in glorious fashion so he's gonna be played normally in 2020. He could not handle double-coverage in the playoffs so he's gotta learn n grow there. I'd expect he's doubled every game until Smith and/or Davis and/or Humphries steps up. I could absolutely see one of them having a big increase in stats from last year but until they do, it might be difficult to be AJ Brown. I'd put AJ at above average.
Does he have that greatness in him where he can beat double-teams consistently? If so then, he's definitely special. He proved a lot last year and flashed without question, it's just overcoming the double-teams. We (FF) can't have a zero or low scoring game just because a D doubled someone.
Absolutely contact the authorties.
You're saying someone from this board is doing that?
How do you know that?
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DropKick
Footballguy
Completely serious... I feel bad for all the crap you have to deal with.
Less serious... Miss the yoga pants threads.
jm192
Footballguy
Sorry to hear about all of that stuff. I've always enjoyed your posts.
On Brown, I'm strictly talking redraft at this time of the year. I'm higher on him than I was 3-4 weeks ago. But I can't get him to top 10. I've got him at WR16 presently. I think the volume isn't there to put him top 10. At least for this year. Tanehill basically threw it 26 times a game last year. Even increasing it to 28--448 and giving Brown a 25% Target share, he's looking at 112 targets. His efficiency almost has to come down.
He's a rock star talent, but the offense doesn't want to throw it a ton. I think realistically, 105 targets, 68 receptions, 1100 yards, 7-8 TD. I think there's a lot of growth potential in the catches, a bit in the yards, but the TD's are going to be tougher. I think the Red Zone continues to be largely about Derrek Henry.
On Brown, I'm strictly talking redraft at this time of the year. I'm higher on him than I was 3-4 weeks ago. But I can't get him to top 10. I've got him at WR16 presently. I think the volume isn't there to put him top 10. At least for this year. Tanehill basically threw it 26 times a game last year. Even increasing it to 28--448 and giving Brown a 25% Target share, he's looking at 112 targets. His efficiency almost has to come down.
He's a rock star talent, but the offense doesn't want to throw it a ton. I think realistically, 105 targets, 68 receptions, 1100 yards, 7-8 TD. I think there's a lot of growth potential in the catches, a bit in the yards, but the TD's are going to be tougher. I think the Red Zone continues to be largely about Derrek Henry.
The Titans haven't had a special offense since the run N shoot days. I would go nuts if some of these predictions come true.
Davis, Britt, Wright, Hunter, DGB, .... I would be thrilled if AJ simply plays as well as people predict
The AJ Brown predictions are way too high- many are expecting him to perform better than any WR in Titans history. There were many interviews last week which reiterated the same things that were said all offseason- they will get Humphries involved, Davis is still the #1, and look for Henry in the passing game.
When I used to do projections, I had the prior three years for comparison and those stats had a way of toning down my expectations to make them realistic. I can tell ya without a doubt that Tannehill will not throw for 6000 yards, very likely not 5000, and Titans fans would be thrilled if he threw for 4000. Some fantasy sites are not doing things right this year- do the math yourself!
Love AJ, he's got great potential and it's fun. I get that! But geesh are some people getting carried away this summer.
Davis, Britt, Wright, Hunter, DGB, .... I would be thrilled if AJ simply plays as well as people predict
The AJ Brown predictions are way too high- many are expecting him to perform better than any WR in Titans history. There were many interviews last week which reiterated the same things that were said all offseason- they will get Humphries involved, Davis is still the #1, and look for Henry in the passing game.
When I used to do projections, I had the prior three years for comparison and those stats had a way of toning down my expectations to make them realistic. I can tell ya without a doubt that Tannehill will not throw for 6000 yards, very likely not 5000, and Titans fans would be thrilled if he threw for 4000. Some fantasy sites are not doing things right this year- do the math yourself!
Love AJ, he's got great potential and it's fun. I get that! But geesh are some people getting carried away this summer.
Johnny B. Goode
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Exactly. My guess is that is coaches trying to install confidence in what has been a huge bust so far. Glad I own zero shares in my dynasty leagues. Of course I have AJB all over the place
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Bri has been hesitant to crown AJB....maybe the history of those players has something to do with it. My chips are all in on AJB and will go down with the ship as I think he is a special talent. He is tank strong, great hands, awesome YAC, loose hips for a big guy, can get vertical and win deep, long arms....not sure what is not to be excited about. Bri is concerned that he can’t beat double teams. He was a rookie and from all accounts he seems like a tireless worker. I have zero worries and would bet he enters the elite category in the next two seasons.
To be clear his efficiency (and Tannehill's) does have some regression coming.
But the Titans defense got weaker with Casey being dealt and Pees retiring--meaning more even game scripts and less playing from ahead like against NE and BAL in the playoffs.
And considering he got 1000 yards even with trash at QB for 6 games I see the additional volume and full year of good QB play more than making up for a dip in efficiency
And even if not I sure as hell wouldn't trade him for Corey Davis lol
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Regression is a common word to pin on him for sure and I agree he won’t average the same per catch average. I do think he will see more targets though and he will still produce big plays. The guy is the next Julio Jones IMO. Again, all my chips are in and willing to look back and criticize myself if I am wrong. He is a rare breed and even the conservative TEN will not be able to hold him back. Special, special player in my amateur eyes.
Johnny B. Goode
Footballguy
Jones averages about 160 targets per year for his career. Not sure I see that kind of volume for Brown, but I agree he is special and TEN won’t be able to keep the ball out of his hands.King of the Jungle said:
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Very true, he won’t smell that target volume. From a physical freak comparison is what I meant. Just a fun guy to watch on the field that can do a lot of things well. Once he sharpens his route running, scheme will be his only hurdle.
Johnny B. Goode
Footballguy
lol, 2 things:
1. No way Brown gets enough volume to take over Thomas
2. I trust Brees way more than Tannehill
Rig24
Footballguy
You went way overboard hereAJB's 16 game pace with Tannehill:
61 receptions, 1244 yards, 8 TDs
But yeah I'm sure Corey Davis is better and AJ Brown must be bad because DGB couldn't lay off the weed
You said Corey Davis is the number 1 and AJB is limited by the fact that previous Titans WRs have been busts
It's like saying you should sell DJ Chark for James Washington because the far less productive Dede Westbrook is the number 1 in JAX and past Steelers WRs like AB and Juju>>>>>past Jaguars WRs like Keelan Cole and Marquise Lee
Tell me where I followed you wrong
The Titans offense is middle of the pack with about 103 vacated targets
For reasons others and I have listed I expect the Titans to have to throw more this season with the losses in their defense (Casey, Pees). For sake of projection I'll bring up the number of new targets from 103 to 140. These additional pass attempts take them from the 31st most pass heavy team to the 28th most pass heavy team. Don't think that's unreasonable
Of those 140 targets, considering how much better he is than the Titans other weapons (unless you think Corey Davis is better in which case I'll save you some time and say no need to read further), I think it's fair to expect him to take 25% of those additional targets and actually on the conservative side considering how much his snap count was suppressed in the first half of the season but I'll stay relatively conservative on my projections throughout. That brings up his targets to 119 over 16 games (only 7 more than Corey Davis had in 2018 so not at all unreasonable)
Next comes his catch rate: at around 61% with Mariota but bumped up to a tick under 63% with Tannehill.
Again this is something I can easily see improving as it does for so many WRs after their rookie years; but again, being conservative I'll keep his catch rate at the shade under 63% it was with Tannehill
Now his most likely area of regression is his 2019 YPC of 20.2. This was 2nd highest in the league among qualified WRs and is definitely not sustainable for a WR who profiles as a chain mover type rather than a deep threat (and part of the efficiency regression mentioned about him)
That said his YAC skills of elusiveness, power and contact balance are truly special and enough to me to ensure the YPC won't fall completely down.
For the sake of this projection I am bumping it down from 20.2 YPC to 15.3--around 15th to 17th among qualified WRs and in the same range as guys like Amari Cooper and Courtland Sutton and just below players like Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin and Jared Cook (not exactly deep threats themselves)
The last part of his receiving puzzle is TDs. He had 8 in 2019 and there are reasons (more targets, more passing volume overall, higher snap count all season long) to think that increases but being conservative I'll say that the decreased efficiency of the whole Titans passing offense that comes with more volume cancels out those reasons and results in the same TD total as 2019 (8 receiving TDs)
The last and relatively minor part of his fantasy production is rushing. In 2019 he had 3 rushes for 60 yards and a TD--all of which came post Tannehill and signal how the Titans tried to get him the ball more as he developed later in the regular season. Thus, while he is not Deebo in rushing, I think for a full year it's reasonable to expect a small uptick in carries for 2020.
With that said 20 yards per carry is absolutely ridiculous and even more unsustainable than his receiving yards per catch. I would cut in half but that still seems optimistic to me.
Considering prime Randall Cobb was in the teens in yards per attempt and Deebo last year at 11.4, I will give Brown 7.5 yards per attempt and keep him fixed at the 1 rush TD he had in 2019.
All this creates a final statline of:
75 receptions, 1147 yards, 8 TD with 5 rushes for 37 yards and a TD
In 2019 that would have been good for WR 8-9 overall in half PPR
Not guaranteeing this will happen and you are free to edit some of my estimates and come up with your own stat line or disagree entirely, but I think there's a lot more to AJB's 2020 outlook than screeching "ReGrEsSiOn" and "Titans don't throw" or saying he is going to be the next Kelvin Benjamin and is going to get fat/be bad because Kenny Britt and Justin Hunter disappointed when AJ was a high school freshman
For reasons others and I have listed I expect the Titans to have to throw more this season with the losses in their defense (Casey, Pees). For sake of projection I'll bring up the number of new targets from 103 to 140. These additional pass attempts take them from the 31st most pass heavy team to the 28th most pass heavy team. Don't think that's unreasonable
Of those 140 targets, considering how much better he is than the Titans other weapons (unless you think Corey Davis is better in which case I'll save you some time and say no need to read further), I think it's fair to expect him to take 25% of those additional targets and actually on the conservative side considering how much his snap count was suppressed in the first half of the season but I'll stay relatively conservative on my projections throughout. That brings up his targets to 119 over 16 games (only 7 more than Corey Davis had in 2018 so not at all unreasonable)
Next comes his catch rate: at around 61% with Mariota but bumped up to a tick under 63% with Tannehill.
Again this is something I can easily see improving as it does for so many WRs after their rookie years; but again, being conservative I'll keep his catch rate at the shade under 63% it was with Tannehill
Now his most likely area of regression is his 2019 YPC of 20.2. This was 2nd highest in the league among qualified WRs and is definitely not sustainable for a WR who profiles as a chain mover type rather than a deep threat (and part of the efficiency regression mentioned about him)
That said his YAC skills of elusiveness, power and contact balance are truly special and enough to me to ensure the YPC won't fall completely down.
For the sake of this projection I am bumping it down from 20.2 YPC to 15.3--around 15th to 17th among qualified WRs and in the same range as guys like Amari Cooper and Courtland Sutton and just below players like Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin and Jared Cook (not exactly deep threats themselves)
The last part of his receiving puzzle is TDs. He had 8 in 2019 and there are reasons (more targets, more passing volume overall, higher snap count all season long) to think that increases but being conservative I'll say that the decreased efficiency of the whole Titans passing offense that comes with more volume cancels out those reasons and results in the same TD total as 2019 (8 receiving TDs)
The last and relatively minor part of his fantasy production is rushing. In 2019 he had 3 rushes for 60 yards and a TD--all of which came post Tannehill and signal how the Titans tried to get him the ball more as he developed later in the regular season. Thus, while he is not Deebo in rushing, I think for a full year it's reasonable to expect a small uptick in carries for 2020.
With that said 20 yards per carry is absolutely ridiculous and even more unsustainable than his receiving yards per catch. I would cut in half but that still seems optimistic to me.
Considering prime Randall Cobb was in the teens in yards per attempt and Deebo last year at 11.4, I will give Brown 7.5 yards per attempt and keep him fixed at the 1 rush TD he had in 2019.
All this creates a final statline of:
75 receptions, 1147 yards, 8 TD with 5 rushes for 37 yards and a TD
In 2019 that would have been good for WR 8-9 overall in half PPR
Not guaranteeing this will happen and you are free to edit some of my estimates and come up with your own stat line or disagree entirely, but I think there's a lot more to AJB's 2020 outlook than screeching "ReGrEsSiOn" and "Titans don't throw" or saying he is going to be the next Kelvin Benjamin and is going to get fat/be bad because Kenny Britt and Justin Hunter disappointed when AJ was a high school freshman
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
This is a good post, and I largely agree. I think there is another and bigger reason that the Titans will pass more next year, aside from obvious regression towards the mean. They're smart and they know that their lack of passing game hindered them from going *all* the way. Riding Henry gave them a shot, and that is still going to be their bag, but they know that's not good enough. During the regular season, if there is one, they are going to want to stretch that passing game muscle a bit more. Also, every DC in the league is worried about Henry.
By the way, I see you are relatively new here, but just so you know, Bri above is like a living legend on this board. I can't tell his story because I don't know it, but from what I can tell he follows the Titans on site in some manner. He is *uber* tuned into their franchise and has *comprehensive AF* analysis about them on this board. He also totally nailed the #### out of AJ Brown breaking out and taking over the #1 role from Davis and has been vocal about Davis being a bit of a bust, but with a heartbeat still.
So that said, I too am surprised to read him saying Davis is still #1. But having followed what Bri has said for quite some time (mostly because I've held Henry since he was a rookie), that makes me want to reread what he posted. Perhaps a mistake somehow? I think he has made the argument Davis could be FF relevant again this year based on defenses putting their #1 attention on Brown (and Henry focus), but I'm sure he would elaborate for us all if you didn't come at him like you did above. No biggie, just saying, nobody has to agree with his take, but this dude is a treasure. Just saying.
Understood didn't mean to sound disrespectful. Just the Davis being the number 1 seemed a bit out there to me and I didn't necessarily see why previous bad Titans WRs should take away from AJ. That's the same reason people passed on him in rookie drafts last year for Parris Campbell and JJ Arcega Whiteside. Yes I may be predicting him to have one of the best Titans WR seasons in history; but besides Derrick Mason and MAYBE Drew Bennett I think even in his 2nd year he is the most talented WR the Titans have ever had
I actually do agree that 4000 pass yards is about Tannehill's outlook next season (not 5000 and definitely not 6000) and even that Davis isn't trash. On a different team I could see him being a quality WR2 in real life and a low WR2 in fantasy--one with a QB willing to throw into tighter windows more often. He has talent--people without talent don't destroy Stephon Gillmore, but I think the result of his time with the Titans speaks for itself--just as AJB's rookie season does.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
For sure. I'm largely still fading Brown (in redraft) because I still think there is a very real floor that stinks, even with your projections. To be fair, it's possible he exceeds your conservative process. I don't think something like 14 TDs is crazy. We will all take the under but it isn't crazy. So yeah I love the ceiling but I'm not sure the passing game regression will be enough to make me a buyer. In redraft he is going in the middle of the 3rd round.
Admittedly in my process I may have been aggressive in estimate on target share (25% of the new targets available). Mainly I think I was conservative on his catch rate (which I really do see him improving) and rushing totals (he can easily break a big one at some point this season and go over 37 yards on one play)
I wouldn't touch him as my WR1 in redraft if I go RB-RB first two rounds. As WR2 having gone RB-WR though assuming Golladay/ARob/DJM types are gone I don't see it as being too risky
I usually go RB-RB though and like I said not sold on him as my WR1.
In dynasty though I just don't see any way you can sell at this point:
The list of WRs to put up 700 yards as a rookie:
2018: Calvin Ridley, Sutton, DJ Moore
2017: Kupp, Keelan Cole, Juju
2016: Thomas
2015: Diggs, Amari Cooper
2014: OBJ, Evans, Watkins, Benjamin, Jordan Matthews, Landry
2013: D-Hop, Keenan Allen, Terrance Williams
Take out injuries and binge eating killing careers (Watkins, KB), guys with day 3 capital (Keelan Cole) and there are two misses there (Williams, Matthews)
For last year's class it's AJB, DK, McLaurin, Deebo, Diontae, Slayton
Besides maybe Slayton because of day 3 draft capital you can pry them from my cold dead hands
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No I didn't
The previous post, which doesn't quote, is from Faust quoting someone as saying that AJ would have a better year than Michael Thomas.
The Titans have said many times this offseason that Corey is still the #1. I, on the otherhand, have been crystal clear on my thoughts on him on this board over the years.
The bulk of my post is how I love AJ but the predictions are getting way out of hand
The previous WRs listed were supposedly all gems and all going to be special but never were.
Hunter didn't do squat his rookie year but run deep routes, get called JAG, and occasionally show us he can jump higher than one might imagine. People predicted big things from him in year two because of college #s and his combine measurables were (still are) out of this world good. CJ running for 2k with his 4.2 speed, it's entirely possible people that aided people to go overboard on Hunter's 4.2 speed but....he was a very good case for "actual production over combine numbers" and "there's more to the game than combine #s." College Hunter had moves and that probably was in people's heads but he wouldn't show those moves until several years later in preseason games with the Steelers. Very impressive shake N bake from a big fella and yeah leaning forward to reach for the end zone is pretty unstoppable after a move and...well too little too late. Much of Hunter's career though is old school bashing from a coach (Whis) that used the old school approach of breaking down a player completely to build him back up. This doesn't always work because, like Hunter, sometimes they lose all confidence and don't regain it. Again though, everyone predicted big things for him in year two and a lot did in year three.
Kendall Wright was a speedy little bugger that the Titans said would be a big part of the O in year two and he totally was. They had an awful offense which seemed to only throw short passes and ultimately defenses alllowed Kendall to catch it rather than risk him burning them and choosing to smack him after a 5 yard pass. It didn't work, re Kendall, as he had 94 catches for 1079 yards but the OC (can't think of name, went to Bears recently) could not get anyone open with medium to long range passes with the DBs backed up ready to smack Kendall. Many had him sustaining his numbers because he was a speedy lil bugger that was tough to cover and we're talking something of a compiler of 5-6 yard passes. The more defenders learned how to cover him/ bump him around, the more he ad-libbed on plays which would ultimately get him out of the league.
Britt was a darling of this board. Even when he went to the Rams after failing in TEN. He had a 200 yard game against Philly that people used over n over to rationalize greatness. HOFer Mike Munchak tried everything to get him to be accountable and to get him to the next level and it just didn't work. Randy Moss joined the Titans for a late season minute and I firmly believe his (laziness, blase attitude, how do you describe Moss then?) ruined Britt. He was a hard worker and really changed after that. There were good reports of his effort in STL but Munchak would have no choice but to bench his spoiled "star WR" that truly never accomplished a darn thing.
Davis was the top WR selected and the fifth pick in the draft. It's almost mandatory that FF people predict great things after that happens. He is a very well built, well coached, hard working WR that's a great teammate. He learned to block better and better and is one of the best blocking WRs there is and....he checks every box. BUT he doesn't produce. Rookie WRs are always always always bumped at the LOS until they prove the can beat it. Last year, there was a video from Titans training camp of him showing Brown how to beat it and yet how frustrating is it that he can not? He plays patty cake with the defender, he pauses, he does a stutter step to give a shoulder...it's all wrong! It's 100 percent mental as he is glorious in practice and camp and everyone raves how he looks like the 5th pick in the draft and then the games come and it's what the curse!
Humphries is curiously absent from most of your posts. He's an excellent tactician that the Titans paid big $ for and then barely used. He is a bigger looming presence than anything to take up targets as a reply to your post about vacated targets.
AJ wasn't great in camp and was clearly outplayed by Taywan Taylor and Humphries when he was healthy. It took him longer than FF fans would have hoped but about normal to catch on the the O and adjust to the NFL game. His first six games aren't on the QB, as you said, he wasn't even in the game much. Your post insinuates he was on the field and QB play let him down- he was not on the field much at all.
The Titans had Heimerdinger who was as creative as can be and an absolute gem at creating shifts to create mismatches. From him all the way til Arthur Smith, they have had old school coaches that have at one time seemed a 3WR proponent but they always went with a 2 TE and/or 3 TE offense, often times in the most old school boring mind numbing way possible.
Arthur Smith 'grew up' in this environment and also under Joe Gibbs. The wealthiest coach in football adored Gibbs and that there is why there's reason for hope with him. His offense was terrible, firable, OMG bad. He learned and improved every week. By late season and in the playoffs, his adjustments were genius. It is exciting to wonder what he can do in year two.
As far as Corey being the number one not being a big deal, ya gotta remember that AJ isn't on the field if they're running a multiple TE set and want Corey in to block. The Titans had the best blocking TE in football for years and then have paraded through some pretenders. Delanie and Jonnu formed a nice one two punch of receiving TEs that would force defenders back a step in respect. This was enough of an advantage to still make the multiple TE sets viable. Jonnu learned an old school punching technique in college and is OMG good as a downfield blocker while in-line he's just good. Firkser is tiny. Pruitt was an average blocker that really stepped up late in the season but all in all is probably average. There is definitely hope for them to not use a multiple TE offense as much but it's more likely they add a TE to be able to continue to. Big Henry behind seven linemen with a great outside blocking presence is formidable. They have the most questionable backup QBs in the NFL and a rookie T predicted to start next to a guard with about a half season of starts. Chances are, they help those two out with a TE and try to wear down a D with Henry. Both young linemen are maulers but the critique is they struggle against fancy feet so they might "have to" get the defenders worn down to feel comfy with Ryan throwing. The divisional opponents have destroyed the Titans over the RG or RT for years. One way Smith adjusted was to take a page out of Gibbs book and use Jonnu as more of a FB and h-back type almost like a second lineman to get through.
Smith instilled a big offense last summer and it was very successful most every time he used it. Henry, Jonnu/Delanie, and AJ out wide is an odd matchup that can really work against certain teams. Legal illegal picks are real difficult to deal with when there's three that size in your way and the QB is firing it quickly.
AJ did not do well when he was established as a star. It's totally fine for a rookie to not beat double coverage and struggle. It's part of the development process. We would not be talking of Smith's creativity if Brown succeeded late and in the playoffs. Jonnu runs. Khalif bolting deep from the slot. Humphries slanting in from out wide. There were a number of huge plays that probably weren't necessary if Brown was this sure thing to get open and catch passes with ease. Rob Moore is a good WR coach and he learned to overcome. Brown puts the work in and has an awesome attitude. I'm very confident he can overcome the double coverage in year two. That doesn't mean 5 catches in 3 games is good. No one in FF would ever be excited over 5 total catches in 3 games. What did opposing DCs get on tape as far as how to stop AJ? And what can he learn and adjust to? This right here is huge to this guy become a stud WR.
The Titans closed with three must win games and he rocked in one and then had five games with ten catches. One was a beautiful catch N run but otherwise he did not come through. What did work was the "good luck stopping Henry" offense.
Tannehill was meh through three quarters and a legend in the fourth quarter of games last year. He's got work to do and they clearly believe in him and this does bring hope for Brown. If Tannehill is throwing, that's gotta mean Brown gets on the field.
Still though, there are a ton of traditional FF boxes we check that AJ does not.
Late season success, no
Offense built for him, no
Pass happy offense, no
history of successful players at his position, no
team speaks of using him more in the upcoming season, no- Davis and Humphries
opportunity increase, not likely. 60 percent of snaps has been about regular for Titans #2 WRs for 10-15 years.
fave panic target, no clearly the TE
The Titans needed a change. They were picking near the Browns for a couple years and a doormat other years. AJ could lead that change with Tannehill too. I am not saying there is no hope. I am excited about this kid but it's too strong, way too strong.
You 'can't' judge all 31 other teams WRs one way and then AJ a different way. He has concerns or issues and must develop. Michael Thomas is best ever type good. Brown is not. Not yet? Idk but definitely not now. It's completely irrational to compare AJ to Thomas now and find AJ in a more favorable light.
I'll start with this part: Obviously MT>>>AJ or any WR in fantasy and all but Julio in real life. That doesn't need to be said and I never claimed otherwise
I liked Wright, Hunter and Davis once upon a time (not so much Britt but still) but I can objectively see that none of them showed anywhere as much in the NFL as AJ has--not even close
Wright and Davis had good yardage totals but on awful efficiency as you indicate in your Wright paragraph. AJ went over a thousand yards on a run heavy offense with a trash bag at QB for 6 games (may sound salty coming from a Chiefs fan and I know Titans fans love Mariota but he is god awful) and as a rookie (which inherently means fewer routes run and lower snap counts)
I'll account for Humphries. Not sold on him being as "excellent" as you are but he is a nice player with some capital invested in him. One of the reasons I only peg AJ at taking 25% of remaining targets: AJ, Davis, Jonnu, Humphries and Evans replacing Lewis's work. I have my doubts on Henry as a pass catcher--obviously an incredible player but they have had 4 years to use him in the passing game. Why am I to expect something different now that they have a legit WR?
Raymond will get a few deep shots but he is nothing in terms of overall target share.
You lost me completely in your second paragraph though. AJ Brown was fantastic from his first game on. Rookie WRs generally start with low snap counts, especially when they missed part of camp. And it didn't take longer than expected at all. I saw week one that I had made the right pick but didn't expect anything close to a consistent fantasy option as long as Mariota was the QB and did not see the Titans having the guts to bench him
AJ Brown has not been and never will be outplayed by Taylor and Humphries. Not a slow start--the normal easing a rookie in combined with a low volume passing offense with a bum at QB
Fixed the part about Smith's offense for you. His offense was never the problem--just the scapegoat for Titans fans who loved Mariota
And notice his offense improved as AJB got going? He may be old school but as I said I do expect the Titans' game scripts to be a bit different this year and more passing volume to be the result
As for past Titans coaches: again I am going to disagree on how it relates to their current situation. I hated when the Chiefs drafted Mahomes despite liking Mahomes just because I couldn't believe the Chiefs would have a star homegrown QB worth all the picks we used to trade up (our only good QBs prior have been old guys from other teams). I figured even if we ever won a championship it'd be with running game and D
The fact that Jeff Fisher hired OCs who ran boring thumping offenses doesn't mean much to me in evaluating Brown--especially considering high end talents then still produced despite the scheme (Mason, Bennett)
The first paragraph is admittedly a good point and something I will consider, but I still think the Titans will be throwing more this season. Mostly because of losing Casey and Pees on defense and in part because--as said above--they found out in the AFC CG that Henry can only take you so far. Besides if they gave him the volume they did in the playoffs he would be puking by week 7.
By 5 games I assume you mean 6: 2 vs the Texans, 1 vs the Saints, and the 3 playoff games
He was great the two Texans games. As for the Saints' still got a big play on the ground, BUT I won't disagree that Lattimore was too much for him
The Ravens game (and to a lesser extent the Pats one as well) is a BS litmus test in every sense though: team was playing from ahead and barely had to throw--completely game script dependent
For the Patriots game: from my unscientific viewers opinion, looked to me like the Patriots defensive strategy was selling out to lock down the Titans passing offense and letting Henry get his. And it worked to be honest. They held the Titans offense to 14 points and Tannehill to his worst game of the season. That's when I knew the Patriots were frauds/Titans had a real chance to beat the Ravens: they had an off day in every sense of the word and still won in Foxboro
The Chiefs game I can comment better about since I was there with a pretty decent view. I saw quite a few plays where I thought he had a step on his defender(s). Our corners are nothing to write home about so this wasn't unexpected but the Titans seemed committed to running Henry up the middle for 2 yard gains even when it was clear the Chiefs were going all out against the run
But as for your FF boxes, I really can't agree with many beyond the first 3. He absolutely had late season success. Carried my redraft team to a completely under deserved championship and made up for drafting that fraud who rode AB's coattails Juju in the first round. I call that late season success. If you define late season as post season and want to think Raheem Mostert had more late season success than Miles Sanders then sure go ahead. I will not
Coach speak doesn't matter much to me at all. Been burned enough times by the CJ "we're gonna feed him till he pukes" Spillers of the world to care what a coach says in public
I don't really even know what a panic target means or what significance that holds or how it could be determined so also not a big deal for me; but if it's important to you, I won't argue it
But the opportunity part is one I disagree way too strongly to ever be reconciled.
I have already stated my expectation that the Titans will have to pass more this season; but beyond that, AJ BROWN IS NOT NATE WASHINGTON, HE IS NOT HARRY DOUGLAS, HE IS NOT DONNIE AVERY, HE IS NOT ANY TITANS WR2 OF THE PAST (except when Mason and Bennett overlapped). He is not even any Titans WR1 of the past except those two guys. His snap count will anyways go up just from the fact it isn't suppressed the first 5 weeks by his being a rookie
And like I said I don't really care about trends from 10-15 years ago.
You seem to be the one judging AJ differently from WRs of other teams because he is a Titan and past Titan WRs didn't deliver on the hype (whereas AJ already has)
Again obviously MT is a different class
I think my customization of different inputs and the improvement in some aspects and regression in others it suggested were more than fair for the statline I projected above
If you want to edit his share of available targets, catch rate, rushing numbers, yards per catch, etc based on what you expect to make your projected line then feel free.
I won't pretend to know more about the Titans than you but I know from watching the NFL that a player like Brown doesn't get 84 targets a year for long or get out targeted by Corey Davis/Adam Humphries (which he wasn't last year even with the rookie learning curve and not being the "WR1")
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah unfortunately I only have Brown in one dynasty, but I'm definitely holding. Haven't looked to acquire because I assume most people don't want to sell and the price is too high for me.
I go McLaurin, DK and then Brown/Slayton. I've been buying Slayton everywhere and think after a year Slayton will be on par with Brown by market value.
ETA I don't own Deebo but would probably be a hold. Aiyuk scares me off but Deebo straight balled last year. Love the player, skeptical about FF.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'm not so sure you guys are so far apart. I think there might be a bit of a disconnect between describing the FF landscape vs the NFL landscape. Brown still has developing to do, that shouldn't be a controversial take. But he has arrived in FF, also not controversial. A solid 2nd year will mean a lot.
I have to agree with KChusker on one point, though. The past WRs prior to the current Titans regime really don't seem relevant.
I have to agree with KChusker on one point, though. The past WRs prior to the current Titans regime really don't seem relevant.
I don't think so either.
As to the second point, I think you're both wrong and I don't think it's debatable. Sidenote- not trying to be a dink about and not trying to not quote the guy either we just both got long winded and with the agreement it's easier to stick to this one point.
Prior success at a position has long been used as a barometer. When this QB replaces that legend, we commonly think good things. Same with a slew of positions. This is a feeling, nothing factual but we certainly do it especially because it's young inexperienced gem replacing probable HOFer gem. I'm not even into discussing this though because I was just running through common things we use to evaluate at the time.
The thing I'm most concerned with is the most glorious of fantasy terms- opportunity.
The Titans could develop into a Denver offense as Alex Gibbs and Jim Schwartz (A Pats offense but he conceded to Denver) so beautifully illustrated last playoff run but until they do or if they do, ya simply gotta keep in mind that AJ is not part of the Titans base offense. Husker is continually speaking as if the Titans run the oh so common (every other team for decades!) 3 WR offense but they do not. They're a multiple TE offense with a mean OL and great wide blocker in Corey Davis.
Once Henry is established, Smith does open the playbook and appeared genius for a half a season. AJ is totally part of this. If they're behind, AJ is totally part of a different set where they pass often. I can even tell you that you'll know when it's coming because he starts taking a page from Heimerdinger and BB and shifting alot or not aligning players where you'd think when they leave the huddle.
AJ is electric, I love the David Boston-esque quality to his game and so much about him. The guy's gotta be on the field though. He's essentially the NBA's sixth man of the year award winner right now though and Husker is clearly not owning that. In the NBA, the guy comes off the bench to add fire to the court and puts up buckets in a hurry then sits, then come back out and does the same. No doubt AJ does that with yards, most games. This does not remove the concern that he is not part of their two most common offenses -3 and 2 TE sets.
Shifting Jonnu to FB (not playing a FB) to get AJ on the field was a significant change last year and very good for AJ in this regard. Henry needs the FB, idk why but he does and his stats are night n day different without one so it's mandatory in this sense.
It seems we all agree, we'd love a TD, Sharpe, McCaff, Smith offense here and AJ would probably be a star if so. Wanna pick a Gibbs team for Gibbs/Smith influence, fine. The Titans aren't there yet though. They came off a successful run that largely involved the multiple TE offense and good luck stopping Henry. They paid him handsomely during an era where teams seem to consider RBs a dime a dozen. They added a T that everyone calls a beast or mauler after last year adding the top FA guard.
The Titans never spend on offensive free agents NEVER! and do you know how frustrating that has been? They spent big on Humphries outbidding many teams for the top WR free agent and then because Davis blocked better (and some other things but none more obvious or larger) he wasn't on the field enough to even justify the large contract. One year later, you want your hopes for AJ to be larger than a big free agent contract so AJ gets on the field? It didn't work to get Humphries on the field, plain n simple.
You don't want to talk about failed developing WRs but one is literally AJs competition for playing time- Corey Davis.
As is, AJ is never, not possible, never reaching the lofty expectations people have. If the Titans O develops, that'd make it possible. If he becomes a better blocker and can steal that role from Davis, that would make it possible.
The incredible success of the two and three TE offense running the ball is a giant roadblock here. You can't expect the Titans to stop doing what they did oh so well just because you drafted AJ or hope he does well. There's gotta be a change in offense or he to unseat Davis as the blocking WR
AJ was third in yards per reception, second in yards per target, and second in yards per route. This is commonly quoted and shared and boosting his stock to obscene levels.
Same type sites that chart those show he is 81st in target separation, 74th in cushion, and 65th-79th in adjusted catch rate(sites human adjusting custom stat)
You're getting someone cherry-picking stats and misleading you
Same type sites that chart those show he is 81st in target separation, 74th in cushion, and 65th-79th in adjusted catch rate(sites human adjusting custom stat)
You're getting someone cherry-picking stats and misleading you
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Not meaning to single you out here but I am just blown away these metrics still keep coming up. I've ranted on each of these many times on this forum before but these are, without a doubt, the two most useless metrics in football. I'll keep it short since I've gone in depth on this multiple times before.
Target separation is literally the worst metric in the history of anything. ANYTHING. Even logically you can quickly come up with reasons for it. Namely that better receivers obviously draw better coverage, and even moreso that better receivers are more likely to have a QB throw the ball to them when they are covered. Adam Humprhies, for instance, is only getting targeted when he is completely wide open. A QB isn't going to force it into him and let him make a play on the ball like he would with someone like Julio Jones.
But forget the logic, the metrics are 100x more compelling. There is an extremely strong INVERSE correlation between this stat and fantasy success. That is to say the WORSE your yards/separation per target is, the MORE likely you are to score a lot of fantasy points. Every year this metric comes up and I rattle off the best and worst in the NFL at yards/separation list and it is just as shocking as the year before.
NFL leaders in yds/sep: Jimmy Graham, Vance McDonald, Nick Boyle, Diontae Johnson, Albert Wilson, Hunter Renfrow, Nelson Agholor
NFL worst in yds/sep: Kenny Golladay, Mike Williams, Marvin Jones, Terry McLaurin, Julio Jones, Preston Williams
As to the adjusted catch rate, I've railed on that one before too back in the Dez Bryant thread back in the day. Basically this one is calculated in a completely useless manner. All they do is take number of drops and compare it to receptions. Anything that is not either a drop or reception is recorded as an "uncatchable" pass which is useless. The vast majority of passes that hit the turf fall into a category that does not include either a drop nor a ball that sailed 10 yards over the WRs head.
ETA: Sorry I saw you just said on the adjusted catch rate that you were looking at a site using human adjusting so throw that last paragraph out. I don't know anything about that stat but it sounds awfully subjective, and of course I would question the validity of a subjective interpretation that AJB's non-adjusted catch rate was inflated by great QB play, given the QBs he played with.
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I think you present this very well and have a great point.
How do you account for your human nature when watching a game though? Suppose you're watching AJ in the playoffs and he has next to no stats. Aren't you thinking "he isn't getting separation?" Sure it could be cut sharper, come cleaner out of his cuts, get better at finding a soft spot and....I'm trying to stay on your topic though. When you have an FF WR and are watching live stats hoping to beat your opponent, you turn on a game to see why your gem is not producing expected stats and then don't you critique that he's not getting open? or the D is blanketing him? or somesuch?
I couldn't stand catchable pass and every other stat being some individual sitting there deciding if a pass was catchable. I was all umm hello I disagree, he couldn't catch that so your stats are bunk. Then I worked for StatsInc and did some side work for Elias and learned a thing or two. There's 12 guys observing the game scoring stats, then more reviewing that night, then even more that night randomly checking plays. Call it 20. If stats seem skewed or off at all, a new 20 people review the game in it's entirety. This made me lose my "I don't agree with you calling that a catchable pass" logic but instead be like "OK if 20 of you think it's catchable, I'll roll with that." It just completely changes the perspective for me
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Just to be fair, I don't own him in any dynasty leagues except one hybrid that is set to disband after 2020 (so I have some interest in him) and am largely avoiding in redraft. I don't necessarily care all that much whether I'm right or wrong on this, so it's not because I'm emotionally vested in him.
I just think he is going to ascend if he hasn't already. If you're right about Davis getting more snaps because he is the blocking WR then yes I think the FF community probably ought to pump the brakes. Maybe you're onto something. Not saying you're wrong. I was trying to defend you to the other fella, saying your opinion is based on quite a lot of Titans knowledge and not just a whim.
Anyway, there is one point that got mentioned somewhere above but I forgot to respond, and I don't know who mentioned it, but the reason AJ "disappeared" in the playoffs is simply because of how much they ran Henry. And that during the regular season they simply can't give him those kind of touches. And they *need* to throw more and they know they need to throw more. I think we can expect AJ to be the primary receiving weapon.
Anyway good stuff and as usual I appreciate your contributions around here.
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Here's a good article summarizing that Alex Gibbs Schwartz interview
https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/01/17/titans-offense-origins-wide-zone-run-game-derrick-henry-arthur-smith
https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/01/17/titans-offense-origins-wide-zone-run-game-derrick-henry-arthur-smith
Biabreakable
Footballguy
How do you figure this? The only players they have lost are Walker (more targets for Jonnu or 2nd TE) and Tajae Sharpe who had 35 targets which will likely be picked up by the WRs remaining..
I was talking about this in the Jonnu Smith thread, that the Ttitans have averaged 460 pass attempts over the last 3 seasons. The high mark being the furthest away from today. So no I don't think it is reasonable to expect them to throw the ball more. I would need a more compelling reason why they do that than them losing a couple of defensive players.
25% of the available targets (which to me seems really inflated) based on what? I think 25% of the total targets is a lot but possible with Brown as their most targeted player. 25% of 460 is 115 targets.
Browns catch rate is fine. It could improve or stay the same, it is already decent. For him to have above average catch rate (an improvement) I think he would need better QB play or more high percentage targets. I think 63% is fine and that is what I would use.
Yeah the yards per catch and/or yards per target will go down. By how much I am not really sure. I would need to give that more thought. I would expect these metrics to regress to the mean but would put Brown above that average by a bit because of his strengths and what he did as a rookie.
Even the best running WR in history like Percy Harvin do not score rushing TD every season.
Unless Derrick Henry who they just gave a contract extension to is out of the picture the Titans will not throw the ball enough for Brown to get the targets you are talking about.
Browns efficiency stats as a rookie are off the chart and will regress as he gets more plays in the league.
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1. https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbers/2020-available-targets-air-yards
2. The fact their QB isn't trash now combined with the fact that their defense will be worse this season and now allow them to play from ahead every game like they could in the playoffs. If Still the 28th most pass attempts in the league. The Titans passed 448 times last season. I am projecting 485 passing attempts--that isn't even that far from your 460 number
3. I am NOT projecting 25% (or any percent) of total targets in this. I am combining vacated targets 103 with my projected increase (37 attempts) to get to 140 and adding 25% of those targets to Brown's total last season with all other players keeping their targets (I am NOT projecting Brown to cut into other players' targets or to take them away--just of the additional available targets)
4. That's why I projected 63%
5. I projected a definite regression here from 20.2 YPC to 15.3 (from number 2 in the NFL last year to number 17 among qualified receivers)
6. Because Percy Harvin was hurt every season. Subtract the TD if you really find it impossible: doesn't change the overall analysis
7. Understandable opinion--but still wrong and a lazy oversimplification. The Titans passed the ball 496 times (more than I am projecting for them this season even with my bump) just two seasons ago and now have a better QB and likely worse defense. At a 25% target share and 63% catch rate there are more than enough targets for Brown to hit 119 when Corey Davis nearly had that many with a worse QB (and fewer total passing attempts) just a season ago. Even if we don't give them the 37 pass attempt bump I am and stick them at 460 total pass attempts that means 115 total extra targets to go around in that offense (103 vacated+12 extra pass attempts). At a 25% target share that means 113 targets for Brown. And with a 63% catch rate and 15.3 YPC: 71 receptions, 1089 yards, 8 TD with 5 rushes for 37 yards and a TD--good for the WR12 in half PPR last season
8. As I accounted for already
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah I dont agree with those numbers by Diagle when it comes to the Titans and I don't think anyone else should either.
Players gone. Walker, Lewis, Sharpe. All of those targets are being replaced by Jonnu Smith, Darrinton Evans, Adam Humphries. I don't see vacant targets here at all. Humphries missed 4 games last year
Ryan Tannehill has a great stretch of games for the Titans last year. His level of performance is not sustainable. I don't think he is a very good QB based on his play with Miami. However I do see him as being in the peak window for QB performance and he has better supporting cast around him now than he has in Miami. I am open to him being above average NFL QB for a few seasons while he is in this window. I do not think he is as good as the numbers show for him last season.
If you are projecting 485 total passing attempts that seems fine. Slightly above the 3 year average. I do not think this number exceeds 500 unless Henry misses many games.
I know you are not projecting 25% of the total targets. You are saying 25% of the vacated targets, which I think are being replaced by other players. In the end I think your projections should look at total market share of targets, and if that number is too high for Brown, then you should reevaluate things. 140 targets for AJ Brown?? He had 84 last season. If you add 37 to that its 121 targets not 140.
140 targets would be Brown getting 29% of the total targets. This is too high. 121 targets would be 25% of the total and I think thats fine.
Ok show me a WR who has scored a rushing TD every season.
Ok now you are offending me. I am wrong plenty of times but it iisnt because of lazy oversimplifications. More often it is the opposite that is ture. Nothing in the rest of your statement proves your opinion about me or my analysis.
eta - You know what I think is a lazy over simplification of things? Counting the targets of players who exited the team and just assuming those targets will be up for grabs than assigning a arbitrary percentage of those targets without consideration of how those players who left the team got those targets and how their roles will be replaced by other players in the following season.
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Apparently I inadvertently disrespect a lot of people. Sorry; not my intent. Just saying that a run heavy team supporting a low WR1/high WR2 isn't out of the historical norms at all and saying "Titans don't throw. They have Henry. Efficiency regression" isn't all that productive when I address those points specifically
Now for the rest:
1. Of those targets 140 additional targets I projected (103+37 extra pass attempts) I gave AJB and Jonnu 25% each, Davis and Humphires 20% each. Evans was never much of a pass catcher at APP State--don't know why he is being projected as such in the NFL. Maybe one day but as a rookie I think he is more COP--he, Henry, Firsker, Raymond, etc will make up the other 10%. I don't see targets as being deferred specifically to the position they were lost at. I frequently see Atlanta's 250 vacated targets being cited as for Calvin Ridley being a breakout candidate even when most of those come from the TE position
What made Chris Godwin a huge breakout candidate last offseason was Tampa's huge vacated target share--most of which came from Desean Jackson's departure. A lot of Godwin skeptics assumed a vertical field stretcher like DJax would have his targets go to Evans (another downfield weapon) or even deep threat Breshad Perriman more so than the underneath/intermediate distance weapon Godwin. They were wrong
2. I am a Tannehill believer:
Can't believe that seeing the previously written off Parker and Gase ball out free of Gase isn't enough to convince people what the problem was in Miami
They were an awful, dysfunctional organization: he had Joe Philbin, the Incognito-Martin incident, the Landry contract issue, Parker not doing s***, Leonte Carroo busting, big free agent acquisition Jordan Cameron also busting and Gase hating Kenyan Drake--the only constant through it all being horrendous OL play. And still there were glimpses of his potential in Miami
Then he comes to Tennessee with a talented team and quality coaching/organization but a really sub par group of skill position players (overall) and posts a TOP 5 QB season, and unleashes Derrick Henry and AJ Brown
Yes, he was helped by Henry, but don't act like Henry was bowling over the Ravens and Pats with that bum Marcus Mariota at QB
For the whole AFC championship until maybe mid to late 4th quarter I was nervous because of how methodically the Titans were able to operate. Their downfall IMO was not trusting him when it was clear our defense was selling out to stop Henry (and succeeding)
Always thought the Titans were a QB away from being legit in the Mariota years (yes I know Mariota fluked his way to beating us one time) and last year confirmed it
3. I agree. They are not going over 500 pass attempts without Henry missing games
4. I projected 119 targets for Brown in my original post. 25% of the 103+37 additional ones plus the 84 he had last season. 119 targets is 24.5% target share
5. Randall Cobb in his Green Bay years
Cheers
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lardonastick
Footballguy
Why can't Brown get more targets because he's really good, and the Titans recognize that he's really good and emphasize getting him more targets?
