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WR A.J. Brown, PHI (1 Viewer)

A.J. Brown caught 5-of-6 targets for 44 yards and one touchdown in the Titans' Week 15 win over the Lions.

He and Corey Davis tied for the team lead with six targets, but Davis (4-110-1) had the bigger day with a 75-yard touchdown. Brown caught a late score with a two-yarder in the fourth quarter to save his fantasy day. Brown now has 10 touchdowns on the year and has scored in all but three games this season. He'll be an upside WR1 for Week 16 at the Packers.

Dec 20, 2020, 5:23 PM ET
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Week 16 Dynasty Risers and Fallers: Chase Edmonds is taking over

Excerpt:

FALLER: WR A.J. BROWN, TENNESSEE TITANS

Brown is an incredibly gifted player, but ignoring his volume this year would be bad process. He has no games with 10 targets this year and one such game in his entire career. Marquez Callaway, Isaiah Ford and Jeff Smith all have a game with double-digit targets. When playing with Corey Davis, Brown hasn’t been able to separate himself from the former first-round selection. 

Player                        Target Share          Air-Yard Share

Corey Davis                    23%                            36%

A.J. Brown                      24%                            33%

The ability to draw targets at the highest level of football is undoubtedly a measure of a player's talent. Brown is seeing a solid workload and has been incredibly efficient throughout his two seasons in the NFL. This is simply saying that declarations for him being dynasty WR1 may be getting ahead of themselves given his split with Davis, who was written off as a wasted first-round selection two years ago. 

Davis is a free agent at the end of the season and could walk. Maybe in five years, we’re looking back at this as the last season Brown where was held below a 30% target share. However, he could be a player who is always thriving on efficiency but never ascends to the next tier of production.
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A.J. Brown caught 4-of-8 targets for 43 yards in Week 16 against the Packers.

Brown’s first catch didn’t come until Tennessee’s final drive of the first half. Ryan Tannehill didn’t take any deep shots in snowy Lambeau conditions, limiting Brown to a long catch of 12 yards. Brown had at least 80 yards or a touchdown in five straight games going into Sunday night. He should rebound as a mid-range WR1 for a matchup with the Texans in Week 17.

Dec 27, 2020, 11:32 PM ET
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A.J. Brown caught 10-of-11 targets for 151 yards and a touchdown in the Titans' Week 17 win over the Texans. 

With the third biggest receiving effort of his already-illustrious career, Brown cleared 1,000 yards receiving for the second time in as many NFL campaigns. He hauled in a 52-yard reception with 0:18 remaining. Making big plays every single week, Brown will be one of the X-factors for next week's epic Wild Card clash between the Titans and Ravens.

- Rotoworld
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Double digit targets? More of this next season, Tennessee.

 
A.J. Brown (ankle) will play in the Wild Card game against the Ravens.

Brown wasn't available for Thursday's and Friday's practices but will still enter Sunday without an injury designation on the final injury report. He himself was adamant he'd play as long as he "has breath in my body." Fantasy players should move forward with their initial approach to postseason lineups given Brown's non-existent status.

SOURCE: Turron Davenport on Twitter

Jan 8, 2021, 4:08 PM ET
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A.J. Brown caught 6-of-10 targets for 83 yards and a touchdown in the Titans' Wild Card loss to the Ravens.

Brown opened up the game with a one-hand catch on and end zone fade for a score. He led the Titans in all receiving categories and was their only player to top 51 yards from scrimmage. Tennessee committed to running the football inefficiently for most of the game so Brown was able to be fully unleashed but he showed his ability to dominate in flashes anyway. Corey Davis is set to hit free agency this offseason and the Titans aren't projected to be working with much cap space. That could be we see Brown enter the 2021 season with next to no competition for targets within his offense. If that's the case, he'll be a high second-round pick in fantasy drafts by the end of the summer.

- Rotoworld
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A.J. Brown said he had surgery on both of his knees.

Brown claims that they believed his 2020 season was done after a Week 2 knee injury, but he managed to play through the pain. That makes his 70-1,075-11 receiving line across 14 games even more impressive. Brown simply is one of the best and most physical athletes at the position. It's unclear what surgeries he had -- his Week 2 injury was reportedly a bone bruise -- but he has months to get back to full health before training camp. With Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith headed for free agency, Brown will be in the WR1 conversation for 2021 fantasy drafts. He'll be 24 years old then.

SOURCE: Terry McCormick on Twitter

Jan 19, 2021, 6:34 PM ET

 
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Pretty darn good year driving on two bad wheels. Hopefully can start next season at 100% and continue his ascension as one of the leagues best at his position.

 
AJ is a bad bad man. I think he'll be fine regardless. The issue has always been targets, he definitely has made the most of what he's been fed since entering the league. I'd think his target share will only increase now.  :popcorn:

 
ffmail4me said:
AJ is a bad bad man. I think he'll be fine regardless. The issue has always been targets, he definitely has made the most of what he's been fed since entering the league. I'd think his target share will only increase now.  :popcorn:
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Agree, his production per target is as elite as it gets and that was on two bad knee's last year.

Frankly I've done a 180 on this guy. Last year about this time I liked the talent but was scared off by lack of usage concerns, thought he was overvalued. I'm not scared of nothing no more with him. Stud, the WR1 potential.

 
I don't see losing Davis and Jonnu as a good thing for Brown. Hard to imagine that offense scoring nearly as much as they did last year now. They better hit on a stud WR in the draft or Brown is going to see double/triple coverage a LOT.

 
Apple Juice said:
I don't see losing Davis and Jonnu as a good thing for Brown. Hard to imagine that offense scoring nearly as much as they did last year now. They better hit on a stud WR in the draft or Brown is going to see double/triple coverage a LOT.
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Mortals can't stop Brown. Seriously, he's so strong. and dreamy.  :wub:

 
I tried to find some information on the knee issues/surgeries last year but came up with nada. Has anyone seen anything on what exactly the diagnosis was and whether/when a full recovery is expected?

I'm a fan of his grit playing through it last year, but I'm hoping he didn't aggravate the injuries or do any long term damage.

Excited to see what he's capable of this year given it looks like everything is lining up in his favor.

 
Adso said:
I tried to find some information on the knee issues/surgeries last year but came up with nada. Has anyone seen anything on what exactly the diagnosis was and whether/when a full recovery is expected?

I'm a fan of his grit playing through it last year, but I'm hoping he didn't aggravate the injuries or do any long term damage.

Excited to see what he's capable of this year given it looks like everything is lining up in his favor.
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Nothing concerning. Video of him working out w Julio

 
We like Julio on the other side of AJ or does it hurt him this year? Let’s hope Julio doesn’t start finding out where the end zone is.  :ph34r:

 
GoBirds said:
We like Julio on the other side of AJ or does it hurt him this year? Let’s hope Julio doesn’t start finding out where the end zone is.  :ph34r:
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Targets go down but coverage can’t roll as hard so I see it as a net even.  AJB still top 5/6 for me in PPR. 

 
The Frankman said:
Will they now?
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Absolutely.

Tannehill is a Good quarterback.  Not great, but good.  Give him Julio Jones and AJ Brown opposite each other, and he can put up numbers.  

The Titans secondary isn't good enough to play run control  in the playoffs.  Someone gets up on them, and they haven't had the firepower to catch up.  

If they have a passing game to allow Henry to cut back--keeping him fresher for the playoffs makes all the sense in the world.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
I think it's self evident. Jones will catch more than the 65 that Davis got last year. And I doubt the increase comes at Brown's expense.
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One thing I've seen on this forum is there is a strong offensive bias to how a team ran their offense the previous year despite new additions to a team/staff. For instance, the passing tree could just narrow between the competent receivers (Brown, Jones, and Firkser) and they might pass a similar amount. Or the "more" may not be a significant amount to move the needle; Ryan Tannehill isn't suddenly going from 30 pass attempts per game to suddenly 40+ with a stud RB around. The Titans O has been a very run-heavy O and even with a new OC at least early in the year it should remain somewhat run-heavy, albeit less so.

 
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I like it a lot for Brown.  

I know the volume was going to be insane, but with no one else to throw to--I worried about how much coverage Brown would see.  This fixes that.  And while Julio may cut down some of the insane volume--Brown is such a hyper efficient player--he doesn't need 160 targets.

He was on pace for 120 targets, 80 receptions, ~1200 yards and 12 TD's.  

I have a hard time thinking he can't do that this year.  And that's a top 5 WR.  

 
The Frankman said:
One thing I've seen on this forum is there is a strong offensive bias to how a team ran their offense the previous year despite new additions to a team/staff. For instance, the passing tree could just narrow between the competent receivers (Brown, Jones, and Firkser) and they might pass a similar amount. Or the "more" isn't a significant amount; Tannehill isn't suddenly going from 30 pass attempts per game to suddenly 40+.
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Well it's all guesswork, isn't it?

But Tannehill ranked 18th in attempts and the Titans were 23rd in total passing yards. 

Believe what you want to, but IMO you don't add Julio Jones to maintain that status quo.

 
I think we have to assume at least a small to moderate increase in passing. I would bank on small but enough to matter a little bit. But generally speaking the offense as a whole has to be bumped up as a result of this. Henry should be expected to have higher efficiency numbers. He has always had ridiculous TD floors, his TDs are less fluky than any RB and he has a massive TD ceiling. With 17 games they are going to want to keep him fresh but I think there is at least a little bit of a chance the Titans and Henry want to break Dickerson's record. I don't think it is going to happen but there is a chance they go for it. 

I think it is fair to expect less touches for him but I think it's fair to back off some ceiling numbers for Brown as well. 

 
This probably hurt's AJ's value slightly from where it was yesterday, but not from last season IMO. Between Davis, Jonnu, and Humphries there are a lot of targets vacated, so while I wouldn't expect them to make a huge leap in terms of pass/run ratio, AJ should still have plenty of opportunity.

 
I think there's room to increase numbers but remember, Ryan Tannehill has never been a volume QB; he's an efficiency QB. He does more on less and relies on his accuracy. The book on Tanny is outside of comeback situations where the Titans were down a ton, they're going to ball-control and work off the play-action and the 5-10 yard passes he throws to AJ that turn into massive YAC gains 😁

I think it's going to be important in preseason and the first few games to see what imprint the new OC puts on this team.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
I think it hurts Henry more than Brown. They'll pass more. 

Henry had nearly 400 touches last year. That can't happen.
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I agree.  What Henry did last year was unsustainable.  Plus, Tannehill passed for 3,819 yards, which was below average, but he also had 33 TDs, 7 INTs, and a 65.5% passing completion.  He's a good QB, but they relied on Henry so much they didn't need to pass as much so his passing yards have room for improvement.  Now they've upgraded from Davis to Julio and it's not hard to see Tannehill getting 300+ more passing yards to go to about 4,150, which would make him average to above average.  Rivers had 4,169 and Carr had 4,103 last year.

 
Julio Jones trade: Who are the winners and losers?

Excerpt:

Winners

A.J. Brown: It's no secret that Brown wanted this deal to happen. He's openly talked about the way he's idolized Jones along with his desire to recruit Jones through social media. Hell, Brown was even open to the idea of giving Jones his jersey number (both players have worn No. 11 since coming into the NFL). Like Henry, Brown should love the idea of Jones being in the same huddle this coming fall. Brown has started his NFL career with two straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons and he's going to see even better matchups with Jones attracting plenty of defensive attention. The third-year receiver also will have the chance to learn plenty from Jones about how to dominate at this level. As Brown said on Twitter shortly after reports of the trade surfaced, "Please excuse my language when I say this 'y'all done (expletive) up."
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Fantasy Football: Impact of Falcons trading Julio Jones to Titans

Excerpt:

RIP A.J. BROWN WR1 SZN

Alas, the dream has died folks. The chances of A.J. Brown being the WR1 overall in fantasy football won’t happen this year because we can’t confidently project Brown to see as high of target share with Jones’ insertion into the lineup.

But for what’s it’s worth, Brown has the chance to be off-the-chart efficient in 2021, which means he is going to be primed for some massive fantasy weeks. Remember folks, Ridley averaged more fantasy points per game with Jones than without. That’s because Jones’ active presence lifts the entire offense in terms of more scoring opportunities.

Take the discount on Brown when he falls into the third round of best ball drafts all day every day.
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I don't feel like this should change brown's value at all, which is why you should put out feelers to see if you can get at a discount.  As Faust posted above, the dream over no1 wr overall has died and his value may have dropped to round 3, which is too low.  If you can name me five dynasty wrs you'd rather have more than him... Well you an I disagree on our rankings.

 
Hartitz: 9 Fantasy Football Takeaways from the Falcons Trading Julio Jones to the Titans

Excerpt:

3. IT’S STILL AJB WR1 SZN, BUT THE CHANCES OF IT BEING *THE* WR1 SZN ARE GONE

I wrote about Brown’s chances at taking another leap in 2021 last week and noted the following in the event that Jones would be traded to the Falcons:

“It’s actually scary how similar the numbers are that Jones and Davis put up last season. Adding another top option like Julio would undoubtedly knock Brown a few spots down the ranks, but it’s not like he’d be close to falling out of the top-12 WRs.”
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wgoldsph said:
I don't feel like this should change brown's value at all, which is why you should put out feelers to see if you can get at a discount.  As Faust posted above, the dream over no1 wr overall has died and his value may have dropped to round 3, which is too low.  If you can name me five dynasty wrs you'd rather have more than him... Well you an I disagree on our rankings.
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:goodposting:

He didn't cut into Ridley's 100 yard games at all.

Doubt he takes away from AJ.

---------------------------------------

Warren Sharp
@SharpFootball
100+ yd receiving games produced in 2020

13 - BUF
12
11 - HOU, TEN
10 - MIN, CAR
 9 - LV, GB, DAL, KC
 8 - Calvin Ridley all by himself 
 8 - TB, ARI
 7 - SEA

6 - SF, LAC, DET

5 - DEN, MIA, LAR, WAS

4 - NYJ, CIN, IND, PIT, CHI, NO, NE, NYG

3

2 - JAX, PHI, CLE, BAL

 
Nothing can dent AJ Brown's dynasty value for me.

Pre-Julio there was a good chance Brown was going to see Davante Adams-like targets. That chance is gone unless Julio gets hurt, so this does take a bite of winds out of his sails for this season. But that just takes him from "potential league winner" to "locked in wr1".

 
The Frankman said:
One thing I've seen on this forum is there is a strong offensive bias to how a team ran their offense the previous year despite new additions to a team/staff. For instance, the passing tree could just narrow between the competent receivers (Brown, Jones, and Firkser) and they might pass a similar amount. Or the "more" may not be a significant amount to move the needle; Ryan Tannehill isn't suddenly going from 30 pass attempts per game to suddenly 40+ with a stud RB around. The Titans O has been a very run-heavy O and even with a new OC at least early in the year it should remain somewhat run-heavy, albeit less so.
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I agree with this.

RT has found new life in his career and a big part of his success has been because of play action and not throwing the ball too much.

In 2019 RT averaged 24 pass attempts per game. He completed 70% of his passes (career high) and had 9.6 yards per attempt (also a career high).

In 2020 RT averaged 30 pass attempts per game. He completed 65% at 7.9 yards per attempt. These numbers are still good but they are more similar to RT career averages (63% completion rate and 7.3 ypa) than his 2019 numbers were. I think this shows that the more you have RT pass the ball the worse his efficiency gets. So I do think they want to manage that and not have RT pass attempts get too much higher than 30 per game.

Julio Jones being the great player that he is could elevate RT passing efficiency and perhaps mitigate a lot of that though and maybe RT could still be good with 35 pass attempts per game?

Henry did have almost 400 touches last season and while I think their offense is built around him and he is the focal point he would still be that with 50 less touches than he had in 2020.

 
wgoldsph said:
I don't feel like this should change brown's value at all, which is why you should put out feelers to see if you can get at a discount.  As Faust posted above, the dream over no1 wr overall has died and his value may have dropped to round 3, which is too low.  If you can name me five dynasty wrs you'd rather have more than him... Well you an I disagree on our rankings.
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Agree 100%.  Dynasty Brown is still a top 5 WR easily, and in redraft, he slips a little, but he's still a locked and loaded WR1.  Also, doesn't Julio get nicked up frequently?  I suspect there will be games where Brown is getting Davante Adams like targets, so there isn't any reason to project Brown below 85/1200/10.

Julio signing affects Reynolds and Firsker much more than Brown. 

 
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