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TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
Into 7 leagues so far, 6 TE premium and one single TE PPR, no SF leagues.
The single TE PPR he went third.
In 5 of the 6 TE premium leagues he went top 2 and half the time as 1.1.
The only league he did not go top 2 or top 3 is kind of bogus and this is the kind of stuff that can throw ADP data off but guy had picks 2-4 in a league of mine and just made all the picks at once and took Pitts at 4.
So yes hype is real and everything I've learned in my 10 year dynasty history is to avoid the TE hype and yet this one feels different.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
I'm probably going to grab him at 1.04 if he's there in one of my Zealots leagues, and I've already got Andrews and Hockenson at TE. I could start all 3 if I needed to, but I'd probably take him just because his value is so crazy high right now and that team needs work. At worst I could trade him for something later (or the others, but Andrews has proven hard to move).
barackdhouse
Footballguy
He is not done growing yet, so it might be a good idea to wait before getting his HOF jacket tailored.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
There was a story before the draft that the Lions were trying to trade up to 4 to grab Chase.
https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/news/lions-try-to-trade-up-with-falcons-for-jamarr-chase
massraider
Footballguy
For one to believe Pitts isn't a top 3 pick, one would have to either believe that:
- No TE is ever worth a top 3 pick.
- Pitts' profile isn't good enough.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
the reaction when they had when they made the pick for sewell, to me, says they were moving up for the tackle.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I disagree with "For now, Pitts will be my TE6. I would currently take Kelce, Waller, Kittle, Hockenson, and Andrews ahead of Pitts, in that order". I would slot him in top 4 for sure, behind only Waller, Kelce, and Kittle.. Hockenson will fade out of the top 4 somewhat and so could Andrews. Sure, Hockenson will be a TE1, but not at the top IMO. I look for Bateman to be the go-to-guy in Baltimore over Andrews eventually. Maybe not early to mid 2021, but eventually he will.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
When I said fade, I mean I don't think he will be top 4 and possibly even top 5. Yes, he will have value as a TE1 for fantasy, but I don't see him as a top 4 TE.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Yes. Look, I think Hockenson is a good player, but I see 4 or 5 other TEs better for fantasy. Not a big deal, he's still a TE1.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Hock might see 150 targets this year, perfect setup for a major breakout with no alpha in the receiving corps.
I'm cool with people not seeing that. Go ahead and take Andrews and Pitts in front of him, and while you're at it encourage your friends to do so.
I'm cool with people not seeing that. Go ahead and take Andrews and Pitts in front of him, and while you're at it encourage your friends to do so.
Why would I have to believe one or the other of these two things to not have Pitts as a top 3 pick? I could believe any number of things outside of those two bullets which could lead me to not taking Pitts as a top 3 pick.
For instance, I could think that odds are stacked against Pitts being THE top TE (talking Kelce level production) and if he’s not, then the advantage he provides as a TE3-5 is nominal and not worth the price of a top 3 pick. Additionally, I could feel like Ja’Maar Chase was going to be widely coveted as a top 3 dynasty WR as soon as next year. I could believe that Najee, ETN, and Williams will all be top 10 dynasty RBs. I might feel like Waddle will become Tyreek, or that Smith is going to be a 100 catch machine. Any combination of those things could lead me to pegging Pitts as 4th, 5th, 6th, or 7th in this rookie class while still not believing that “no TE is ever worth a top 3 pick” (maybe Pitts would’ve been in last/next years class) nor that “Pitts profile isn’t good enough” (it’s obviously plenty good).
I’m not saying I believe any of the above, but if you do then it’s perfectly reasonable to not have Pitts in your top 3.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Answer: no one has
let’s see, we got a guy on his 5th team in 5 years - THAT’S the WR1 - a former speedster who missed the entire 2019 season due to injury, a scrub who opted out last year, the first Quintez to ever score an NFL touchdown, a return specialist, some UDFAs with moss growing on their shins bc they’re legit that slow, and a Sun God rookie. All of them catching balls from a former overall #1 QB dealing with PTSD from his last HC.
What could possibly go wrong?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Anyway, I like Pitts a lot, but as a year 1 TE in redraft I have him behind the big 3, Hock, Andrews and a coin flip with Fant. You’re banking on him being historic/generational, and he might be. Or he might merely put up a top 5 all time rookie TE season and people will want to say he’s a bust.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I'm with you. I have done a number of the FPC redrafts so far this year and took a couple shares of Pitts, just in case. If they do trade Julio then I see big year 1 stats. But I've been taking Hockenson in most of these early season TE premium redrafts. Since I'm interested in the variance that comes with having at least just a couple shares of Pitts, I think this is the time of year to do it, though. I'm more likely to get Andrews at the same price in August, whereas at that point Pitts price will probably be more absurd than it already is. But fundamentally Hockenson is at the top of those 3 for me and I will probably have much more of him than any of the other TEs. A couple Pitts and a few Andrews. I've built a couple around Kelce and somehow managed Hockenson in the 5th in each. Wasn't intending to but I couldn't resist. That was at 5.02 and 5.03 in TE premium. But I have also taken Hock as early as 4.01.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Everyone sees that. I can definitely see it as reasonable for the occasional person to fade that though since we've been certain that a weak WR corps meant plenty of other TEs were going to get showered with targets in the past and it hasn't worked out.BobbyLayne said:
I like Hockenson, but he's an interesting case to me. Everyone says he's going to get peppered with targets, but no matter how hard they argue it they seem unwilling to really commit to it.
By that I mean if you truly believe Hock will see 150 targets this year there is no way you should have him ranked lower than the #1 TE, maybe #2 at worst. If he gets 150 targets he's a virtual lock for 1000 receiving yards and a 23 year old TE coming off a 1000+ yard receiving season will be untouchable at that point.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
he's already a pro bowler. set a record in his first ever game. new qb that like shis TEs and coordinators that are the same.
the few DET games I watched last season i saw hock open at will, and the ball just didn't seem to go to him. hoping that now changes
massraider
Footballguy
I sort of think that falls under the first bullet point. Because, aside from Chase, if you think that any other player (Lawrence?) is as good a prospect at their position than he is at his, then you just don't value TE. or you are in a small minority. Because no one thinks these backs are Saquon, but no one denies Pitts is the Saquon of tight ends. As a possible fantasy TE, Pitts has no flaws, on the field or analytics.SayWhat? said:
Or another way, if Pitts isn't a top 3 pick this year, then what the heck does a top 3 TE look like??
Karl Malone on meth? I mean, what's it take?
Tanner9919
Footballguy
We've seen a lot of top prospect TEs come down the turnpike over the years, most if not all have failed to live up to lofty expectations. I mean how many top TEs have we seen enter the NFL the past 20 years in the first round or two and completely flop? WAY more than TEs that we've seen hit the mark.
the trend is that rookie TEs struggle. Pitts is no different. I'm still waiting for Eric Ebron to break out. or:
Noah Fant, Tyler Eifert, hockenson, hurst, Engram, Njoku, OJ Howard was going to become the greatest thing since slices bread, remember? still waiting on that.
Jermaine Gresham, Brandon Pettigrew, Mercedes Lewis, Dustin Keller, a guy named Vernon Davis - uh, did he ever break out , are we still waiting on this 6th overall pick?!?!
Heath Miller, Ben Watson, Kellen Friggin Winslow, Daniel Graham, Todd Heap, Anthony Becht, and good ole Bubba Franks.Johnny #%@#% Mitchell, NYJ.
History tells us that Pitts is nothing more than another brick in the wall here. just another overrated overhyped player. avoid like the plague or deal with the consequences. it's pretty cut and dry.
one of the only TEs to buck the trend was Jeremy Shockey. I mean it's like 30-1 bad TEs vs good.
each and every one of these TEs was considered a sure fire, can't miss. esp Mitchell, Vernon Davis was going to canton before he played his first game, remember? he's selling cars at bob's auto store in wanaque, NJ .
the trend is that rookie TEs struggle. Pitts is no different. I'm still waiting for Eric Ebron to break out. or:
Noah Fant, Tyler Eifert, hockenson, hurst, Engram, Njoku, OJ Howard was going to become the greatest thing since slices bread, remember? still waiting on that.
Jermaine Gresham, Brandon Pettigrew, Mercedes Lewis, Dustin Keller, a guy named Vernon Davis - uh, did he ever break out , are we still waiting on this 6th overall pick?!?!
Heath Miller, Ben Watson, Kellen Friggin Winslow, Daniel Graham, Todd Heap, Anthony Becht, and good ole Bubba Franks.Johnny #%@#% Mitchell, NYJ.
History tells us that Pitts is nothing more than another brick in the wall here. just another overrated overhyped player. avoid like the plague or deal with the consequences. it's pretty cut and dry.
one of the only TEs to buck the trend was Jeremy Shockey. I mean it's like 30-1 bad TEs vs good.
each and every one of these TEs was considered a sure fire, can't miss. esp Mitchell, Vernon Davis was going to canton before he played his first game, remember? he's selling cars at bob's auto store in wanaque, NJ .
massraider
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
that's a heck of a list. and yes, scary ot think about...
but which of those players had a Pittsesque season in college? He's also PFFs highest ranked TE since 2014 (ahead of the ofrmer #1, george kittle)
his season was otherworldly... so yes, there are some good names in your list. but NONE of them were Pitts.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm basically driving the Zero TE train but...the only TE that Pitts can be reasonably compared to is Vernon Davis. Even Winslow Jr, who I'd consider next, had a poor year before being drafted.
Vernon Davis did have two seasons where he scored 13 TDs. He was plagued with injuries and poor teams throughout his career.
It is a conundrum. He really is as unique as advertised, IMO. But still, he plays TE. So...
I know this is me being a nerdy engineer, but my biggest issue with this article is the author pushing the idea that 100 targets is a magic number, and then saying it will be easier to get there with a 17th game.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Our dynasty league does not have a TE requirement. Would love to an opinion on where he would be ranked in that regards (PPR) rookie draft.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
wlwiles
Footballguy
No TE required = ignore the position completely UNLESS the majority of your league chooses this route and TEs fall. I'm in one keep-4 league where we have three WR/TE slots. Across 12 teams there are only 9 TE's even rostered, and no more than 4-5 started in any given "normal" week (barring a slew of injuries/byes). Let someone else jump on him high and just gobble up WRs
ETA: in a rookie draft for dynasty that didn't require TE, I'd probably consider Pitts around 1.10 (after Chase/Smith/Waddle/Bateman). That probably means someone else takes him before then, which is great for you.
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STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
I’ve watched all this dudes highlights and I don’t see anything that makes me think- this is the best TE prospect I’ve ever seen.
I hope he catches 1,000 balls and 100 TDs and makes tons of dough I just dont see what the hype is all about.
I hope he catches 1,000 balls and 100 TDs and makes tons of dough I just dont see what the hype is all about.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I really don't remember a more polarizing prospect in any draft.
The guy landed in the perfect situation with the perfect coach, who values TE's and has proven output with guys with half Pitts' talent. His production in college was pretty incredible and possibly the only reason QB Kyle Trask was drafted. The only cons of the player is the position. Saying guys like Evan Engram, Dustin Keller, etc. were hyped like Kyle Pitts has been is pretty egregious. Kyle Pitts can be a TE, WR - it doesn't matter.
With having 1.1, 1.2 and 1.7 and a strong RB group that could use a little help (CMC, Gibson, Fournette, Gordon, Drake, Harris) - I plan to take Najee Harris, because he will likely produce immediately. Having A. Rob, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, D. Johnson, AJ Brown and Jerry Jeudy - I don't need Ja'Marr Chase and think Waddle, who I can probably get at 1.7, is closer to fantasy upside than people want to give credit. That leaves me with Hockenson, OJ Howard, Cole Kmet and Goedert - I can't afford not to take a chance at upgrading this position. If you are telling me I could have potential at the next great TE for fantasy or another WR... I am risking it for positional scarcity sake. If you have a world beater at TE... winning leagues is a lot easier. My mindset is similar to a bell-cow RB.
This from a guy who argued the downside of taking a TE and mentioned names like OJ Howard as reasons why. The juice could definitely be worth the squeeze here.
The guy landed in the perfect situation with the perfect coach, who values TE's and has proven output with guys with half Pitts' talent. His production in college was pretty incredible and possibly the only reason QB Kyle Trask was drafted. The only cons of the player is the position. Saying guys like Evan Engram, Dustin Keller, etc. were hyped like Kyle Pitts has been is pretty egregious. Kyle Pitts can be a TE, WR - it doesn't matter.
With having 1.1, 1.2 and 1.7 and a strong RB group that could use a little help (CMC, Gibson, Fournette, Gordon, Drake, Harris) - I plan to take Najee Harris, because he will likely produce immediately. Having A. Rob, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, D. Johnson, AJ Brown and Jerry Jeudy - I don't need Ja'Marr Chase and think Waddle, who I can probably get at 1.7, is closer to fantasy upside than people want to give credit. That leaves me with Hockenson, OJ Howard, Cole Kmet and Goedert - I can't afford not to take a chance at upgrading this position. If you are telling me I could have potential at the next great TE for fantasy or another WR... I am risking it for positional scarcity sake. If you have a world beater at TE... winning leagues is a lot easier. My mindset is similar to a bell-cow RB.
This from a guy who argued the downside of taking a TE and mentioned names like OJ Howard as reasons why. The juice could definitely be worth the squeeze here.
Shrek
Having a great season
DJackson10
Footballguy
So I'm in a keeper league (keep 10) and I got Ertz and Tonyan. PPR one QB start 2 RBs, 2WR slots and a TE slot. I forget what pick I have but it's not top 5 in the league. I'd like to draft Pitts given Ertz situation and I don't know how great Tonyan will be without Rodgers if he leaves. I had Gronk in an old keeper league and it was great when he was healthy and in his prime just plug and watch him accumulate the stats and not worry about anything unless he was hurt or a bye. I would like for Pitts to be that guy and one reason I really want him. Where in a league like mine you see him going?
zamboni
Footballguy
Like anything else, it's hard to tell in a vacuum - depends what the rest of your roster looks like and who else is in the draft.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Well, I'm going to do it. I have 6 of the first 13 picks tomorrow in a Zealots non-ppr IDP where I need everything. So I'm taking him #1.
Good WRs aren't terribly hard to come by (I have an offer of Keenan Allen on the table at 1.6) and I'll get a good RB at 4.
Let's see how this goes. Sorry for screwing up your ADP rankings!
Good WRs aren't terribly hard to come by (I have an offer of Keenan Allen on the table at 1.6) and I'll get a good RB at 4.
Let's see how this goes. Sorry for screwing up your ADP rankings!
DJackson10
Footballguy
10 person league. I got Herbert/Rodgers at QB. Cook, Connor, Justin JacksonTony Pollard Chas Edmonds at RB, Landry, OBJ, Sterling Sheppard, Keenan Allen, Juju, Tyreke Hill and Johnson LAC at WR. I' like to add another RB depth wise that can start if injuries arise. TE right now might be my only weak link its keep 10 players
zamboni
Footballguy
I’d be looking to shore up that 2nd RB spot first unless you’re going with a zero RB strategy. In that case, Pitts seems like a viable option.
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DJackson10
Footballguy
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