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TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Perhaps it goes without saying, but
massraider
Footballguy
Perhaps it goes without saying, but
Lansdowne
Footballguy
I’d like to see Pitts use his college number: #84. Should be free now with Cordarrelle Patterson gone in free agency. For some reason I just don’t like seeing a tight end wearing a single digit number, doesn’t look right to me.Perhaps it goes without saying, but
In terms of his age he's kind of right because he's younger then 4 TE's that got drafted(Stover, both Bengals and Devin Culp), within two weeks of another(Wiley) and a few months older then a 6th drafted TE(Theo Johnson).
And only 12 TE's got drafted.
zamboni
Footballguy
He's also a year younger than Dalton Kincaid, who many fantasy pundits seem to be going back and forth with on comparable value with Pitts in redraft and dynasty.
satch
Footballguy
Can’t make a big deal about these kinda comments, though it would be nice to hear him sound more like a leader at this point, no? It’s one thing to talk about learning a new offense, it’s another to admit to feeling like a rookie.
When a proven vet says it, you laugh it off. When someone who’s struggled to make anywhere near the impact expected, you wonder if there’s something to it. Could be Pitts is just one of those guys who never gets it for whatever reason.
Again, this is half in jest, but not exactly what Pitts owners want to hear at this point.
When a proven vet says it, you laugh it off. When someone who’s struggled to make anywhere near the impact expected, you wonder if there’s something to it. Could be Pitts is just one of those guys who never gets it for whatever reason.
Again, this is half in jest, but not exactly what Pitts owners want to hear at this point.
Interesting number really.
It's not too high and not too low.
5 mil his agent would be crying for more, 20 mil we'd debate it. It's a good number
satch
Footballguy
Really struggling with this guy. I was one of those who spite dropped him last year and it worked out just fine as he continued to suck.
But his draft stock, subsequent hype, promising rookie season, legit excuses, new situation, etc leave the window open for the breakout we’ve been waiting for.
He can be acquired for far less than his upside suggests, which makes it so tempting to jump back on the train, but the Kyle Pitts experience has been so dreadful thus far I’m not sure I can stomach the ride once more.
But his draft stock, subsequent hype, promising rookie season, legit excuses, new situation, etc leave the window open for the breakout we’ve been waiting for.
He can be acquired for far less than his upside suggests, which makes it so tempting to jump back on the train, but the Kyle Pitts experience has been so dreadful thus far I’m not sure I can stomach the ride once more.
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Grid71
Footballguy
Pitts is a hard click for me. Seems like he should be going lower for all the heartburn he’s dished out the past couple seasons. Yet I also feel I need to get more shares.
Excuses are legit between the horrendous QB play and injury. New offense will pass more, veteran QB who loves hooking up his TE. Atlanta needs him to be a target hog. All signs point to this being a career season.
Fool that I am, will probably wait till he looks like a monster in camp/preseason before buying.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Best value/upside at TE. He could continue to underperform, but this is also a guy who had a 1000 yards as a rookie. He is capable and is in the best position for success since entering the league.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
He will continue to underperform his ADP.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Meh, I think for the first time in his career he is valued about right. I won't be drafting him much because there are better TE values on the board IMHO.
The upside narrative is fool's gold IMHO, just because you have a great combine does not make you an elite TE...I think the history of TEs has more than demonstrated that.
The upside narrative is fool's gold IMHO, just because you have a great combine does not make you an elite TE...I think the history of TEs has more than demonstrated that.
Rookie TE going over 1,000 yards>a great combine
satch
Footballguy
I think this best sums up my thoughts, though admittedly, I’m having a hard time letting go of the league winning upside virtually everyone expected.
I just looked back at his scouting report, and he has the best grade I’ve ever seen at 7.19. For sake of comparison, Brock Bowers grades a 6.71 and Marvin Harrison Jr a 6.83. CeeDee Lamb a 6.81. Pitts was about as much of a sure thing as we’ve ever seen, and he’s still only 23 years old.
Of course scouting reports don’t guarantee anything, but to be that wrong is pretty rare. It’s one thing to project a player to be very good and they’re only okay, but another thing to project a player to essentially revolutionize the position only to wind up being below average.
I mean, I remember listening to The Audible and hearing Sigmund Bloom make the case for taking Pitts #1 overall in dynasty startups.
He is such a weird case study because he did go out and have a great rookie season by almost all rookie TE metrics. But then his team/coaching/QB went into such a weird place coupled with a few injuries where it almost seems like he really hasn't been given a chance. But is that because he isn't that good or just circumstance? I don't know if you can even decipher which has had more impact on his disappointment.
It is just such a weird situation. Unlike anything we have ever seen. I think this year will be a good measuring stick to know which way his arrow should really point. It truly is a coin flip to me.
satch
Footballguy
Exactly. I wouldn’t be shocked if Pitts has a fantastic season and the last two seasons are chalked up to what seem like legit excuses, or if he’s terrible again and the last two seasons are who he is. I’m willing to buy a lottery ticket again, I just can’t figure out how much I’m willing to spend.
And not only a rookie he was 20 years old for the start of that campaign
TripItUp
Footballguy
He better have a fantastic season to justify that lofty ADP.
He is being drafted closer to his ceiling than his floor IMHO.
satch
Footballguy
What’s his current ADP?
msudaisy26
Footballguy
His ceiling is tight end number 1 overall and he is going as tight end 6ish.
TripItUp
Footballguy
FantasyPros has him at #61 overall, TE#6
massraider
Footballguy
Which is where he finished his rookie year. Kyle Pitts minus (Ridder+Arthur Smith+Mariota) + Kirk Cousins=
TripItUp
Footballguy
I disagree
msudaisy26
Footballguy
You can, but that is his ceiling. He is an athletic freak, on a team that only has a couple weapons in the passing game with a qb that made Hockenson like a top 3 tight end end Pitts is way better than Hockenaon.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Something isn’t right with his route running.
TripItUp
Footballguy
some people that don't watch football just see his "freak athlete" metrics and will be buyers so long as he is an option to buy. It is what it is.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Pitts put up a thousand-yard season as a rookie. He's struggled since, but he's more than a combine all-star.
Pitts said he struggled to return from injury, and everyone saw his quarterback play. If he and Cousins stay healthy, he's set for a big season.
dipandglide
Footballguy
You literally were talking up BTJ over McConkey and basing it on scouting and athleticism. Pitts went fourth overall(?), and you are knocking people for being excited about Pitts' physical traits? I'm confused.
I would agree. I mean you have held this long why do you want to give him up when all things point to him being in the best position he has been in for his career.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Two completely different situations, ADPs and players.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Some things you can count on; death, taxes and @TripItUp hating on Kyle Pitts. Did he sleep with your mom or beat up your grandma? I don't get it.
His upside is the #1 TE. I think his floor is where he is being drafted. TE6? Is his ceiling? Pitts hauled in 55% of his 90 targets in 2023. Hockenson turned 75% of his targets into receptions. Let's assume Pitts doesn't get an increase in targets and London is still the guy - Pitts line would still look like 68 catches - 870 yards - 5 TD's that would put him at TE7. I think that is pretty realistically his floor.
Something to chew on - I saw Desmond Ridder's passer rating was 49.9 when targeting Kyle Pitts and 57% of Pitts' targets were deemed uncatchable. Those are pretty awful stats. If everything breaks the way it could and should - Pitts benefits from better ball placement, allowing him more receptions and YAC (similar to rookie season) and even if you combine the 68 catches at his rookie year's 15.6 yards/catch - you end up with a 1,000 yard season and a finish of TE5 but I think he finishes with more.
I'm not selling in Dynasty and wouldn't hesitate to draft him at TE6 because I think a world exists where he puts up 100 receptions, 1,200 yards and 8TD's and that would be quite easily the TE1.
satch
Footballguy
Because it may be the final opportunity to sell on one last round of hype before it becomes evident that Pitts is officially a massive bust.
I’m not necessarily saying that will be the outcome, but that’s why you would want to give him up at this juncture.
Sure but It seems like the only way I do that is if it's a good offer. Giving him away for peanuts seems like a bad idea just because of the pieces being in place to prove one way or the other if he is a bust or a victim of circumstances. So it goes back to Soulfly......you would be a dummy to sell unless it's a good offer.
satch
Footballguy
Right, it’s a question of value. Not much point in trading Pitts for a WR5, but a WR3 with upside? Maybe. For example, trading Pitts for a guy like Tank Dell could turn out to be absolutely brilliant.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
He's being drafted #6 TE with an overall ADP of 60.5 on Underdog.
Laporta- Kelce-McBride-Andrews are locks for the top 4 drafted TEs. And all deservedly so IMO. Personally, I've been an Andrews guy for the last couple of years and would absolutely click if I'm within 7-8 spots of his ADP.
After that, it's tough to make that hard of an argument for anyone in the next bunch over him:
Kincaid-Pitts-Kittle-Engram
Furgeson-Bowers-Bowers-Njoku
Kincaid certainly has a case to be the top target on his team but there's also a chance that nobody on the Bills gets alpha treatment. Samuel, Coleman, Shakir and Kincaid could all hit 100 targets, keeping Kincaid locked out of the 120 range he'll need to really smash.
Pitts- I have London getting a 24% TS but after that, Pitts seems like the clear and obvious #2 target in ATL. You have to imagine that Blank hired the new coaching staff partly because of the blowback they were getting for not using the guys they'd invested in. Who's stealing targets from Pitts? Darnell Mooney? Rondale Moore?
Engram could get there. I know the targets spiked with Kirk out but he still managed a ton of targets with Kirk on the field. Per game #4 in PPR points per game- but a ton of his value came as just a ppr relief valve.
@TripItUp- what's your overall projection for passing attempts in ATL and how they shake out? Cousins at 560 passing attempts for 4200 yards is where I'm at. FWIW, the WRs being taken right before and after him are Chris Godwin, Xavier Worthy and Odunze. I won't mention the RBs because they're all smashes there lol.
Laporta- Kelce-McBride-Andrews are locks for the top 4 drafted TEs. And all deservedly so IMO. Personally, I've been an Andrews guy for the last couple of years and would absolutely click if I'm within 7-8 spots of his ADP.
After that, it's tough to make that hard of an argument for anyone in the next bunch over him:
Kincaid-Pitts-Kittle-Engram
Furgeson-Bowers-Bowers-Njoku
Kincaid certainly has a case to be the top target on his team but there's also a chance that nobody on the Bills gets alpha treatment. Samuel, Coleman, Shakir and Kincaid could all hit 100 targets, keeping Kincaid locked out of the 120 range he'll need to really smash.
Pitts- I have London getting a 24% TS but after that, Pitts seems like the clear and obvious #2 target in ATL. You have to imagine that Blank hired the new coaching staff partly because of the blowback they were getting for not using the guys they'd invested in. Who's stealing targets from Pitts? Darnell Mooney? Rondale Moore?
Engram could get there. I know the targets spiked with Kirk out but he still managed a ton of targets with Kirk on the field. Per game #4 in PPR points per game- but a ton of his value came as just a ppr relief valve.
@TripItUp- what's your overall projection for passing attempts in ATL and how they shake out? Cousins at 560 passing attempts for 4200 yards is where I'm at. FWIW, the WRs being taken right before and after him are Chris Godwin, Xavier Worthy and Odunze. I won't mention the RBs because they're all smashes there lol.
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Soulfly3
Footballguy
was offered jameson williams and was an instant no.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Will get to this in the next few days, but we should probably get into the detail here. Great idea.
Laughable offer.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Situation changes, talent does not.
We saw what Pitts could do with a competent QB his rookie season (only the second TE ever to hit 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie). New coaching regime, including an OC in Zac Robinson who is from the McVay coaching tree, new QB (Kirk Cousins if healthy, Michael Penix Jr. if not). More than a year fully removed from his late-2022 MCL injury.
I've been on this ride since his rookie season and have been frustrated all the way, but I truly feel he's going to have his best season yet this year. The glass half empty crowd sees this as a chance to sell now before his value tanks for good. The glass half full crowd is holding because his arrow is finally pointing up and for all the right reasons. Consider me part of the latter group. I've said this before but I'd rather be wrong with a player on my roster than wrong with a player that I gave up on too prematurely. If he flops again then oh well it happens. I'm betting against that.
We saw what Pitts could do with a competent QB his rookie season (only the second TE ever to hit 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie). New coaching regime, including an OC in Zac Robinson who is from the McVay coaching tree, new QB (Kirk Cousins if healthy, Michael Penix Jr. if not). More than a year fully removed from his late-2022 MCL injury.
I've been on this ride since his rookie season and have been frustrated all the way, but I truly feel he's going to have his best season yet this year. The glass half empty crowd sees this as a chance to sell now before his value tanks for good. The glass half full crowd is holding because his arrow is finally pointing up and for all the right reasons. Consider me part of the latter group. I've said this before but I'd rather be wrong with a player on my roster than wrong with a player that I gave up on too prematurely. If he flops again then oh well it happens. I'm betting against that.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
indeed... it'd take a solid wr2 for me to even start considering.
but I'd rather just have the top TE for the next decade
satch
Footballguy
Laughable? How so? Jameson has as much upside as Pitts, and they’re both basically starting from scratch. Granted, Pitts should see more targets, but Jameson will do far more with his.
I suppose position scarcity is in Pitts’ favor, but as far as 2024 expectations, I may be more optimistic about Jameson than I am on Pitts. In fact, I’ll likely end up reaching a bit for Jameson in drafts.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
As someone who loves both Pitts and Jamo, I think Pitts has the more clear path to leading his team in targets than Jamo does. I also agree in the position scarcity. Both are stars if they hit their ceilings, but Pitts is a cheat code if he does because he's a TE.
satch
Footballguy
Fair enough, my point was simply that a Pitts for Jameson trade is far from “laughable” as neither have impressed and both have big upside.
Would anyone be shocked if Pitts goes 4/32/0 week 1 while Jameson goes 4/125/1?
