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TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
Faust
MVP
massraider
Footballguy
I bet we see rookie drafts in May where he goes 1.02 to 1.08. I would be surprised if everyone walks away from the ''TE in the 1st is a bad idea'' storyline.
I have 1.05 in two leagues, and expect to get him.
My nightmare scenario is Najee goes to the Jets, and that's my guy at 1.05. I'm giving myself a stomach ache just thinking about it now.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
He'd be going to a crew that wants to run the ball (see: The SF 49ers). The OC is Matt LaFleur...
"It all starts with the run game for us, which sets up the pass," LaFleur said of San Francisco's offensive philosophy in a 49ers.com article published last August.
I'm hoping he goes to the Jets.
Anyway, regarding Pitts...I have the 1.04 in a non-ppr and can see where he might be gone at that point. If not, I think I'd take him even though I need RBs badly.
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massraider
Footballguy
I'm sorry, that was a little unclear.
He'd be going to a crew that wants to run the ball (see: The SF 49ers). The OC is Matt LaFleur...
"It all starts with the run game for us, which sets up the pass," LaFleur said of San Francisco's offensive philosophy in a 49ers.com article published last August.
I'm hoping he goes to the Jets.
I don't want to take a NY Jet with that pick. I don't want any Jets. ESPECIALLY QB. I'll take Wilson last of the 5 QBs, no matter where ANY of the other 4 go. The Jets are about to draft Johnny from the Cobra Kai, and he's from BYU?? I mean, this all seems pretty obvious to me.
I'll avoid players from trainwreck organizations. I don't mean to pick on the Jets, I'm not throwing stones from my Silver/Black house here, but Jets/Jags/Skins, teams I think have bad organizations, if I can avoid I will.
It sucks too, cause Jets fans are hilarious, the league would be better if they were good. Living in NYC, it would be much, much better if the Jets were better than the Giants.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
This guy is going to be a fantasy bust with the way he's getting hyped.
All he will have to do to bust all over the place - relative to where I am seeing him drafted in dynasty - is not be Travis kelce in year one.
All he will have to do to bust all over the place - relative to where I am seeing him drafted in dynasty - is not be Travis kelce in year one.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Which landing spot do you prefer? Some mention they don't like Dallas because of the amount of weapons they have. Do you agree with that? Is Miami a good landing spot? I personally prefer Cincinnati.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Fallacy.
"We are taking Dobbins ahead of Swift and Akers knowing full well that he won't do well in year 1. We will hold firm and his value will maintain. It's a long term game!"
- Dynasty community 1 year ago.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Fair enough, but as a long time dynasty commish I've seen a lot of owners come and go because they sell out (literally) for this year. Now that doesn't apply to to your response, or even my response, but it does with me when I say marathon vs sprint and dynasty vs redraft mentality. You have people joining dynasty leagues that have no business doing so because of this mentality. It makes it very hard on commissioners to find replacements because they leave the team without assets.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I feel like you're trying to make a point here but I'm missing it.
Is your contention that Dobbins hasn't maintained value - because I'm not seeing that in practice?
Also - Akers had a pretty unproductive rookie season overall, with most of his points coming in one huge week. I'd prefer Dobbins to Akers still (don't own either).
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I love me some Dobbins, but Akers has clearly passed him in value for the moment. That could change, but Edwards will continue to be a part of that RBBC, whereas Akers is the dude in his backfield.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It's only "perceived value" now, which no one can capitalize on unless they are looking to trade their second year RB though. I don't think we KNOW which RB will have the better year in 2021 and beyond.
It's not that I don't like Akers, I do, but it's kind of odd how his value skyrocketed after a rookie season where he finished with only 625 yards rushing (and 2 TDs) and 52 yards receiving - especially when 171 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards all came in one game. You could say he got hot once he was used more but his last game of the season was 34 yards on 21 carries.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Maybe I am missing something, but does anyone feel a little gun shy about Kyle Pitts? Mainly, I keep coming back to OJ Howard and how he was about to change the TE game, but it never really happened. OJ Howard was athletic (less so than Pitts) but Howard could block. I just struggle with some of the comparisons, because they are close in almost every category but Howard has failed to pan out after 3 seasons?
Shawnky
Footballguy
Yes. Not exactly drafting him, but how high people are assuming he goes. Top 10 is a bit worrisome for any TE.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
No. The difference is that Howard just looked the part, but never played it. His output at the college level was nothing to write home about.
Pitts has played the part.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I do think he is a freak, but a non-blocking TE? I don't really see the allure propelling him inside the top 10 in NFL drafts. I also don't see what everyone sees with him inside the top 5 in Dynasty Drafts. I could very well eat my words on this, but... right now I am pretty cautious.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
In today's NFL you draft a TE based on what he can do to LBs and Safeties, not what they can do to DEs.
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-florida-kyle-pitts-is-the-best-receiving-prospect-in-the-draft
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-florida-kyle-pitts-is-the-best-receiving-prospect-in-the-draft
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TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
No, I am aware of the stats and touchdown numbers receiving but at some point - you are going to be asked to help block. This isn't quite the Arena Football League, yet. We say Pitts has shown it and OJ Howard never did - Howard had his fair share of receiving yards and receptions - lacked in the TD department, but Alabama has always been balanced and rushed the ball. In fact, they have about 20 lessing passing plays than Florida did last year.
I just don't think it is ludicrous to point out similarities in a guy, who hasn't done much in the NFL. Everyone seems to be drinking the Kyle Pitts kool-aid and conducting the hype-train but there is a possibility he isn't as good as advertised or gets moved to WR since he can't block.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
That possibility exists for everyone. Pitts has shown a lot more than nothing to dispel those concerns.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Right, but at a position where blocking is part of the job - we should just assume he will not be asked to block? It could limit his playing time and effectiveness. Where are you drafting Pitts (without a current NFL landing spot?) - you think he has shown enough to be drafted top 5 in the NFL and in Dynasty Drafts?
looked at the snap splits at Rotowire and saw some interesting nuggets in terms of usage:
Snaps
Kelce 1019, Waller 992, Hock 767, Fant 732
Lineup Tight/In Line
Fant 84.7%, Waller 64.9%, Hock 62.1%, Kelce 39%
Routes/Snaps
Hock 60%, Fant 55%, Waller and Kelce 52%
Routes/Targets/% Targeted
Waller 516/146/28.3%
Kelce 536/145/27.0%
Fant 406/93/22.9%
Hock 460/101/21.9%
All this indicates to me that Pitts will run routes between 50-60% of his time on the field. By the second year, I would expect at least 20% of those routes he will be targeted... and all that matters in FF is targets. So landing in a place like CIN or ATL in the short run seems to be preferable to MIA. Where he lines up doesn't matter.
I think stylistically, Pitts is a better Graham/Fant. Don't know if that means he gets a Kelce/Waller target %, but i would think any OC would want to maximize match ups. YMMV
Snaps
Kelce 1019, Waller 992, Hock 767, Fant 732
Lineup Tight/In Line
Fant 84.7%, Waller 64.9%, Hock 62.1%, Kelce 39%
Routes/Snaps
Hock 60%, Fant 55%, Waller and Kelce 52%
Routes/Targets/% Targeted
Waller 516/146/28.3%
Kelce 536/145/27.0%
Fant 406/93/22.9%
Hock 460/101/21.9%
All this indicates to me that Pitts will run routes between 50-60% of his time on the field. By the second year, I would expect at least 20% of those routes he will be targeted... and all that matters in FF is targets. So landing in a place like CIN or ATL in the short run seems to be preferable to MIA. Where he lines up doesn't matter.
I think stylistically, Pitts is a better Graham/Fant. Don't know if that means he gets a Kelce/Waller target %, but i would think any OC would want to maximize match ups. YMMV
rockaction
Footballguy
As a top three guy, where Fantasy Pros has him ranked by ECR? Yes. You're missing on one of the big three (or four, if you're JohnnyU) with that selection. Fantasy Pros has Etienne fourth and Javonte Williams fifth.
In the top eight, where seven is his ADP according to DLF mocks? Not as bad. He's right around where it seems he should be.
And I get what you're saying about tight ends and the "this time it's different." Seems we've heard that for quite a few guys recently, and they haven't panned out as hoped.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Jets fan here who totally understands but hopes he gets a Jets back in that wide zone blocking scheme they're going to run. Only, I hope that Jets back is Elijah Mitchell, and I get him in the third. Harris and Williams won't fit that system, and woe to the person who gets a back like that on the Jets. Guys like Chuba Hubbard, Elijah Mitchell, and Khalil Herbert will fit that system, and they're much cheaper in rookie drafts.I'm sorry, that was a little unclear.
I don't want to take a NY Jet with that pick. I don't want any Jets. ESPECIALLY QB. I'll take Wilson last of the 5 QBs, no matter where ANY of the other 4 go. The Jets are about to draft Johnny from the Cobra Kai, and he's from BYU?? I mean, this all seems pretty obvious to me.
I'll avoid players from trainwreck organizations. I don't mean to pick on the Jets, I'm not throwing stones from my Silver/Black house here, but Jets/Jags/Skins, teams I think have bad organizations, if I can avoid I will.
It sucks too, cause Jets fans are hilarious, the league would be better if they were good. Living in NYC, it would be much, much better if the Jets were better than the Giants.
ComfortablyNumb
Footballguy
I also have a nagging concern that his blocking limitations may lead to a position change to WR in a year or two. I play in FFPC (TE premium), so a Kelce is far more valuable than a Mike Evans. But with only late 1st round picks, I don't have a shot at him anyway...
zamboni
Footballguy
Probably beating a dead horse, but it’s all about landing spot IMO. Kelce will never be confused with a good blocker, but that’s not his role. Not comparing the two by any stretch other than situation, but if Pitts goes to a team in which he is asked to block much more so than Kelce does, that could limit his playing time up front or result in a position change. All that said, any team that drafts him that high is obviously going to have his role in mind, and I highly doubt it will be an in-line blocker other than obvious running situations.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
In OJ Howard's senior season in college he averaged 3 catches and 39 yards per game.
In Kyle Pitts' last season in college he averaged 5.5 catches and 95 yards per game.
And of course that's not counting the TD difference (Howard 0.2 TDs/game, Pitts 1.5 TDs/game).
I can definitely buy that people have major concerns about Pitts, but OJH seems like the complete opposite of what someone would call a comp to him. OJH was a complete TE with lousy college production whose primary asset that made him desirable in the draft was his blocking. Pitts is a receiving TE with amazing college production whose primary asset that makes him desirable is his receiving ability.
With OJH I think a lot of people were swinging for a guy with a great floor, that had a chance to be elite too even though we never really saw that kind of production out of him. I think with Pitts most people are expecting a very boom/bust pick where you either get a young Jimmy Graham or Evan Engram/David Njoku.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Jimmy Graham lined up in the slot on 70% of his snaps in NO and his position was never changed. An arbitrator actually ruled that being lined up in the slot but still within 4 yards of the tackle still constituted being lined up as a TE, and even with that definition Graham still only lined up there 50% of the time, yet he remained a TE.
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kittenmittens
Footballguy
Maybe that was a bad example, but the point is just that there is a lot of recency bias in the dynasty community.
A disappointing season after massive hype seems to reduce value more than it should, and it seems hard to expect any rookie TE to walk into a 25 percent target share and dominate. Pitts is going ahead of Kelce and Waller in startups now and in the top 3 rounds of 2 tight end leagues so it seems like expectations for year one will be too high.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
That is absolutely INSANE. I'm sorry I love rookies as much as the next guy, but that's just stupid. Chance of Pitts being LESS than Kelce and Waller, I'd say 95%. Chance of being BETTER than both? 5% at best....
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I agree if you're talking about year one, but in dynasty we tend to look beyond year one. I wouldn't trade Pitts for Waller in the two leagues I have him in already.
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TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I understand the statistics and all of what Kyle Pitts appears to be, but simply put - OJ Howard was in a different offense than Pitts was. Florida had 1 guy with almost 500 rushing yards and Alabama had 3 guys in OJH's senior season with almost 1,000 rushing yards. The fact that OJ Howard only averaged 3 catches/game isn't because he couldn't get more. OJ Howard was a beast in college, despite being on a run first team.
If Pitts gets moved to WR - it diminishes his value and I am just saying that is entirely possible if he cannot block better. In non TE premium leagues - Pitts is 5th pick at best for me. I cannot believe the hype, but it's that time of year. Kyle Pitts has zero holes in his game according to analysts, except the fact he cannot block - which to me is a huge hole.
I think it's fair to say it for the career, Kelce especially. That's a damn high bar to climb, especially if you have a competing roster.
Pitts is a roster clogger this season for those teams. Fantastic if you're in a situation where you can just ignore him until he's producing, but few competing teams have that luxury.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
We think we tend to look beyond it but that's not what happens in the world of trade value.
I'm trading hundreds of times per year across leagues so there is an edge to be gained on this.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Competing team or not I'm always looking ahead, but that's how I play. I never sacrifice the future for today and I obviously win my fair share of titles, except in that darn 14 team league, which I've never even made the playoffs, but that's going to change soon. I do have Lawrence, Watson, Dobbins, Chase, Waddle,, Deebo, Ridley, Bateman, and Pitts. I will also have Javonte Williams and either Gainwell or Carter. Sorry about the rant about the 14 team league, which is irrelevant to the current conversation. I'm just saying that I wouldn't sacrifice Pitts for any current TE in the NFL.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
This has been refuted several times in this thread but your mind appears to already be made up so you're consciously ignoring it.
Just go ahead and draft someone else.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
kittenmittens
Footballguy
I for the record love Pitts. I just can't justify him at his ADP. Almost all of his potential value is already priced in.
You're paying 100 right now, hoping for him to go to 120 when it will be much more likely for him to go down to 50. It's assymetrical downside.
You're paying 100 right now, hoping for him to go to 120 when it will be much more likely for him to go down to 50. It's assymetrical downside.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
That is perfectly understandable and I agree with you. However, there are lots of factors in play here. Team make-up, draft position relative to other picks one may have, and of course league scoring. As for the 2nd one I listed, I moved up to #7 to ensure I get one of the 3 RBs or one of the 4 WRs, because I also have the 1.3, which I could use on Pitts, because he isn't falling to 7. At 7 you're guaranteed to have one of Harris, Williams, ETN, Chase, Waddle, or Smith if I take Pitts at #3. If he goes 1 or 2, then I'm looking at 2 of the players I listed.
Shrek
Having a great season
I'm in a 10 team dynasty, with picks 1.3, 2.3, and 2.5. I have a glaring need at TE, with a second need at WR. I have been thinking it over extensively, but depending on where Pitts lands, I am debating taking him at 1.3 if he's there. I think he almost certainly will be, as the teams at 1.1 and 1.2 have desperate needs at RB. This may come at the expense of passing up on the likes of Chase, Waddle, Smith etc. at WR, but I am pretty certain that WR's in the category of Bateman. R. Moore, E. Moore, Marshall etc. should be available at 2.3 & 2.5. True, they aren't the elite WR's in this draft, but again, depending on the situations they land in, could be good WR's. And since everyone has to start a TE, it seems like a legitimate consideration if Pitts is truly a generational talent at the position. I'd say talk me down from the ledge, but I'm not certain I need to be. The NFL draft is going to get really interesting after SF's pick.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Definitely.
Part of why i am fading the current price is that I don't see any possible landing spot giving him the 25 percent target share necessary to be in the Kittle, Kelce, Waller situation. Definitely not as a rookie a TE.
zamboni
Footballguy
Agree. I think there also needs to be a delineation between re-draft and keeper/dynasty leagues. For re-draft, you're taking a huge leap that he'll give you big time production as a rookie. If you're playing the longer game with keeper/dynasty, that's a different vantage point.
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