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***Official 2020 Election General*** (3 Viewers)

Prinefan said:
Not at all.  It's driven by the last 4 years.  
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I disagree. People hated Bush in 04. The turn out in PA increased from 52% to 60% from 2000 to 04. Obama was the first African American candidate with a chance to win and he got 62% in 08. This is unprecedented. 

 
Insein said:
The most votes cast for an election for PA is 5.9m. The most votes a candidate ever received is 3.2m by Obama in 08. Trump currently has 3.1m. somehow there are magically 1m more votes still not counted? 
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No magic About 3 mill ballots were requested.That number has been on this site, pulled from PA DOS, for days.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

 2.6 mill were returned (this site didn't update for the last day and is at 2.5) . A little over half were counted. A little over 1 million remain.

 
Insein said:
How can there be a million more votes to count? They have already surpassed the highest voter turnout for the state in 08 for a historic election of the first African American president. If Trump got less than he had last time, I'd say the state turned but he got more. A lot more. There's simply no way a state that has a historic 60% average turnout suddenly will have 80+%. 

These numbers are beyond weird. 
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The PA website shows the highest voter turnout ever was in 2016. They also show over 9 million registered voters. Seems reasonable that in a year that has drawn record turnouts in nearly every state that they would exceed their previous election cycles record high turnout. I get what you are insinuating, but that kind of organized fraud would be very difficult to hide, and further would require the implicit participation of a ridiculous number of civil servants. I don’t know if you have ever worked in government on the local level but the civil servants in the cubicles are of every political and social stripe. So for this deceit to be possible a number of Republicans, Libertarians, Green Party, etc. affiliated human beings would have to all clasp hands with their Democrat brethren and sing campfire songs all the while risking the ruination of their Own careers and lives. Yeah, that seems plausible.

 
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gianmarco said:
Are you being obtuse?

There are ALREADY 5.9M votes in. And only 85% have been counted. 

There are record turnouts across the country. It's simple math. You've had it explained to you, don't know what else to tell you.
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Statistically speaking this is an outlier of outliers. This is outside the 3rd deviation. 

 
Insein said:
How can there be a million more votes to count? They have already surpassed the highest voter turnout for the state in 08 for a historic election of the first African American president. If Trump got less than he had last time, I'd say the state turned but he got more. A lot more. There's simply no way a state that has a historic 60% average turnout suddenly will have 80+%. 

These numbers are beyond weird. 
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5mil +/- is 85% of what number...

 
Insein said:
Statistically speaking this is an outlier of outliers. This is outside the 3rd deviation. 
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It's 15% higher than previous. That's not crazy when you're seeing it across the country. There were states that surpassed previous highs BEFORE election day.

 
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Insein said:
I disagree. People hated Bush in 04. The turn out in PA increased from 52% to 60% from 2000 to 04. Obama was the first African American candidate with a chance to win and he got 62% in 08. This is unprecedented. 
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Yes. Every record is unprecedented until it's set tho.

Couple extreme motivation with ease of voting and you're going to set records.

 
@johnrobertsFox

Michigan goes to Biden. At the moment, @realDonaldTrump only path to victory is to win AZ, GA, NC and PA... Trump campaign predicts they will declare victory in AZ by Friday.

 
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Insein said:
How can PA go to Biden? He's down 330k with 85% counted and the total votes cast is already higher than the record setting turnout of 08. Trump has almost as many votes as Obama got in 08. For biden to gain that he'd have to get like a 90-10 or higher split of the remaining assuming there's another 370k+ votes to come in. 
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Current numbers in PA:

Trump: 3,104,658 (52.2%)
Biden: 2,761,196 (46.5%)
Total: 5,942,166

These represent 83% of the expected total.

Therefore, the state expects to count 1,217,070 more ballots.

Biden needs to make up 343,462 votes.

Therefore, if Biden gets 780,266 of the remaining ballots (to Trump's 436,804), then Biden wins. That's a 64.1%-35.9% split.

(of course, that doesn't include 3rd party votes, but it gives you a rough idea of where things stand)

 
Steve Tasker said:
I mean, saying they can "go fork themselves" is a pretty decent example of why we look foolish.  Of course Canada is reliant on us.  They're a deeply-entrenched ally of ours, they've had our backs for decades, and they're our second-largest trading partner (and we're their largest trading partner).  Our elections matter to them.  The US being the world leader matters to them.  
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Then maybe these unsolicited comments from random business partners should remember these things before they mock us openly in conversations.

They read our own media mocking each other and think it is cool to pile on. 

It's like what is OK with family vs people outside the family.  I will say things to my siblings in the heat of an argument that if anyone else said, I'd punch them in the face.  No need to make judgmental comments.  We are not the laughingstock of the world and everyone still knows it, no matter who our President is.

 
Insein said:
The most votes cast for an election for PA is 5.9m. The most votes a candidate ever received is 3.2m by Obama in 08. Trump currently has 3.1m. somehow there are magically 1m more votes still not counted? 
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Trump is incredibly polarizing and energizing to both sides.  There's also a pandemic, so states focused on mail in voting, which turns out to be really easy and convenient and contrary to false statements, it's quite secure.   There's also the highest turnout of young people on record.   

Highest vote count ever + easier voting=lots of votes.    There's also that pesky pandemic, which causes people working at polling places and vote counting centers to take time to sterilize, disinfect and take other precautionary measures.   It's really not that hard to see how these things all fit together.

 
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Joe Summer said:
Current numbers in PA:

Trump: 3,104,658 (52.2%)
Biden: 2,761,196 (46.5%)
Total: 5,942,166

These represent 83% of the expected total.

Therefore, the state expects to count 1,217,070 more ballots.

Biden needs to make up 343,462 votes.

Therefore, if Biden gets 780,266 of the remaining ballots (to Trump's 436,804), then Biden wins. That's a 64.1%-35.9% split.

(of course, that doesn't include 3rd party votes, but it gives you a rough idea of where things stand)
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And that 64% split would be an underperformance of what Biden has been pulling from mail in ballots thus far.

 
Joe Summer said:
Current numbers in PA:

Trump: 3,104,658 (52.2%)
Biden: 2,761,196 (46.5%)
Total: 5,942,166

These represent 83% of the expected total.

Therefore, the state expects to count 1,217,070 more ballots.

Biden needs to make up 343,462 votes.

Therefore, if Biden gets 780,266 of the remaining ballots (to Trump's 436,804), then Biden wins. That's a 64.1%-35.9% split.

(of course, that doesn't include 3rd party votes, but it gives you a rough idea of where things stand)
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And, if I'm not mistaken , all that remains are mail in votes, for which Biden has been getting at ~70% rate.

 
CletiusMaximus said:
Trump campaign moves to intervene in pending PA case.  The SCOTUS will certainly grant this and away we go.  To be clear, this lawsuit does not challenge any ballots received by yesterday, only challenges counting ballots postmarked by 11/3 and received through 11/6.  Hopefully, PA won't matter, but there will surely be other lawsuits.
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PA is irrelevant so Biden will be named president and maybe a few weeks later PA will be sorted out to make the final tally official

 
gianmarco said:
Yeah, no idea what they're doing either. I expect it stays with Trump, but I would like to see the Senate race updated there. It's one that could flip still.
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Yeah.  I think the Presidential election has the writing on the wall.  The Senate races are the interesting pieces now.

 
CletiusMaximus said:
Trump campaign moves to intervene in pending PA case.  The SCOTUS will certainly grant this and away we go.  To be clear, this lawsuit does not challenge any ballots received by yesterday, only challenges counting ballots postmarked by 11/3 and received through 11/6.  Hopefully, PA won't matter, but there will surely be other lawsuits.
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I think this was pretty well expected. The Court seemed interested in addressing the issue. All of those votes are the last to be counted and will be segregated. Directions were provided to the counties on how to handle. The state has prepared voters for the possibility of this. I'm sure some will come in, but it doesn't feel like there will be a ton. THough, obviously, in a close election, they could matter.

 
Cold Dead Hands said:
The PA website shows the highest voter turnout ever was in 2016. They also show over 9 million registered voters. Seems reasonable that in a year that has drawn record turnouts in nearly every state that they would exceed their previous election cycles record high turnout. I get what you are insinuating, but that kind of organized fraud would be very difficult to hide, and further would require the implicit participation of a ridiculous number of civil servants. I don’t know if you have ever worked in government on the local level but the civil servants in the cubicles are of every political and social stripe. So for this deceit to be possible a number of Republicans, Libertarians, Green Party, etc. affiliated human beings would have to all clasp hands with their Democrat brethren and sing campfire songs all the while risking the ruination of their Own careers and lives. Yeah, that seems plausible.
Click to expand...
There is going to be 7m+ votes cast in the state. That's about 78% turnout then. That is the highest since they start tracking it by a ridiculous margin. I'm not comfortable accepting the increase overall as "people hate Trump" because Trump has higher totals too. Like record highs in some states. 

No one has a problem with a statistical increase of votes across the board by nearly 25-30m from all other elections?

 
Jayrod said:
Canada can go fork themselves.  They rely on us for more than they can admit and their PM has appeared in blackface.

We are still the most powerful nation on earth and not to be messed with, we are just having a bit of an identity crisis at the moment.  But since our system of government is the way it is (which Canada has more or less copied), we will continue on and move past it.
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You (and anyone else here) might find this interesting:

Rolling Stone Article

It starts by talking about COVID as a framing device but keep reading, as it gets into America’s role on the world stage and our past as leaders of industry, science, and quality of life, and where we’re headed in recent history in comparison. 

The conclusion is that we pretty much only  still lead the world in military might, so yeah you’re right that no one should “mess” with us. But it questions what that’s really worth? What used to make America special has long since been co-opted by much less savory options on the other side of the world, as we slowly squander our power position and relinquish our leadership role on the world stage. 

Here’s a good excerpt: 

No empire long endures, even if few anticipate their demise. Every kingdom is born to die. The 15th century belonged to the Portuguese, the 16th to Spain, 17th to the Dutch. France dominated the 18th and Britain the 19th. Bled white and left bankrupt by the Great War, the British maintained a pretense of domination as late as 1935, when the empire reached its greatest geographical extent. By then, of course, the torch had long passed into the hands of America.

In 1940, with Europe already ablaze, the United States had a smaller army than either Portugal or Bulgaria. Within four years, 18 million men and women would serve in uniform, with millions more working double shifts in mines and factories that made America, as President Roosevelt promised, the arsenal of democracy.

When the Japanese within six weeks of Pearl Harbor took control of 90 percent of the world’s rubber supply, the U.S. dropped the speed limit to 35 mph to protect tires, and then, in three years, invented from scratch a synthetic-rubber industry that allowed Allied armies to roll over the Nazis. At its peak, Henry Ford’s Willow Run Plant produced a B-24 Liberator every two hours, around the clock. Shipyards in Long Beach and Sausalito spat out Liberty ships at a rate of two a day for four years; the record was a ship built in four days, 15 hours and 29 minutes. A single American factory, Chrysler’s Detroit Arsenal, built more tanks than the whole of the Third Reich.

In the wake of the war, with Europe and Japan in ashes, the United States with but 6 percent of the world’s population accounted for half of the global economy, including the production of 93 percent of all automobiles. Such economic dominance birthed a vibrant middle class, a trade union movement that allowed a single breadwinner with limited education to own a home and a car, support a family, and send his kids to good schools. It was not by any means a perfect world but affluence allowed for a truce between capital and labor, a reciprocity of opportunity in a time of rapid growth and declining income inequality, marked by high tax rates for the wealthy, who were by no means the only beneficiaries of a golden age of American capitalism.

But freedom and affluence came with a price. The United States, virtually a demilitarized nation on the eve of the Second World War, never stood down in the wake of victory. To this day, American troops are deployed in 150 countries. Since the 1970s, China has not once gone to war; the U.S. has not spent a day at peace. President Jimmy Carter recently noted that in its 242-year history, America has enjoyed only 16 years of peace, making it, as he wrote, “the most warlike nation in the history of the world.” Since 2001, the U.S. has spent over $6 trillion on military operations and war, money that might have been invested in the infrastructure of home. China, meanwhile, built its nation, pouring more cement every three years than America did in the entire 20th century.
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There’s a lot more, that’s just a short portion I found relevant to your comments.  It’s a good read even if you don’t agree with the verdict. I think some of this patriotic pride in our military dominance and “power” is not only misplaced but actively harmful, and that’s a lot of the attitude that the rest of the world laughs at. Our standards of living are falling, infrastructure is crumbling, health is declining, education is getting worse and more expensive, wages are stagnant while cost of property and goods increase exponentially, wealth moves ever upward out of the average American’s hands, prison populations outweigh the entire rest of the world’s, preparedness for natural disasters of all kinds plummets, children spend less average time with their parents than any other developed country due to long work hours and the general American work culture, etc. 

But sure. Don’t mess with us! 

 
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Insein said:
There is going to be 7m+ votes cast in the state. That's about 78% turnout then. That is the highest since they start tracking it by a ridiculous margin. I'm not comfortable accepting the increase overall as "people hate Trump" because Trump has higher totals too. Like record highs in some states. 

No one has a problem with a statistical increase of votes across the board by nearly 25-30m from all other elections?
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It's almost as if you haven't been paying attention to the news or voting trends everywhere for the last few weeks. Maybe you haven't, but EVERYONE is reporting increased turnout, biggest election ever, huge lines, mailing in, etc.

Don't know what else to tell you. Go after the conspiracy theory stuff if you like, I'm done.

 
From Silver on the current state of the close races, addressing why part registration isn't necessarily indicative of how things play out for Trump:

"But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. It has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters."

As somebody who thought I was alone on an island out here, I couldn't be happier.  Maybe there's some Facebook group I can join.

 
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Insein said:
There is going to be 7m+ votes cast in the state. That's about 78% turnout then. That is the highest since they start tracking it by a ridiculous margin. I'm not comfortable accepting the increase overall as "people hate Trump" because Trump has higher totals too. Like record highs in some states. 

No one has a problem with a statistical increase of votes across the board by nearly 25-30m from all other elections?
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No

 
jm192 said:
Where are we at with NC?  Are they waiting until a given day to report more?
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My understanding of the NC situation is that they have 117,000 mail-in ballots which are outstanding. But nobody knows if those ballots have even been returned or not. They're just out in the ether, somewhere -- maybe they're all in the mail, or maybe they're all sitting on coffee tables, unopened and destined to be thrown in the trash.

So, the state is basically going to sit back and see what shows up over the next 8 days. Biden could pick up 80,000 votes or he could pick up 0 votes. My gut tells me that he doesn't pick up enough votes to erase Trump's lead.

 
@benshapiro

In PA, Trump is up by approximately 454K votes. There are 1.12M votes outstanding; Biden needs 78% of those votes to win the state. 300K of those votes are in Philadelphia. Even if Biden wins 95% of those votes, he still needs to pull 70% of the other votes. That's a heavy lift.

 
Zow said:
From Silver on the current state of the close races, addressing why part registration isn't necessarily indicative of how things play out for Trump:

"But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. It has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters."

As somebody who thought I was alone on an island out here, I couldn't be happier.  Maybe there's some Facebook group I can join.
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They probably have a softball team.

 
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