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Welp here it is - was gonna do one last change at the last second to add the Green Bay defense but too late...

QB J Allen BUF 40

WR S Diggs BUF 32

WR C Beasley BUF 15

TE D Knox BUF 12

QB A Rodgers GB 36

RB A Dillon GB 6

WR A Lazard GB 13

WR D Adams GB 36

WR M Valdes-Scantling GB 11

QB R Wilson SEA 25

WR C Claypool PIT 12

WR S Watkins KC 12

 

Tried to swap in Tannehill, J Washington, Burton  and take out Wilson and Claypool so I could get GB defense in there too but too late.

Good luck all!

-QG

Edited by QuizGuy66
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As a tradition, we always soft release this contest in the Shark Pool first. Kick the tires and see if you can break it.  https://subscribers.footballguys.com/playoffcontest/entry.php  

Of the 49 different SB combos, you could roster all players for 31 of the combos: WAS vs CLE = $118 CHI vs CLE = $119 WAS vs IND = $119 CHI vs IND = $120 WAS vs TEN = $133 CLE vs LAR = $13

I had an entry with 12 players betting on my Bills playing the Saints in the SB. Then I saw The Winz' post about getting all members of SB teams for under $250. And scanning the list of mostly bad teams, two caught my eyes: TEN-SEA and BAL-SEA. Those three teams could make it. Why not take the chance and get all (or most) of their players? 

So I went with TEN-SEA and ended up with this:

Your team has been successfully entered.

QB - Russell Wilson - SEA - $25
QB - Ryan Tannehill - TEN - $20
QB - Philip Rivers - IND - $12
RB - Chris Carson - SEA - $18
RB - Derrick Henry - TEN - $16
RB - Zack Moss - BUF - $13
RB - Carlos Hyde - SEA - $4
RB - Darrel Williams - KC - $4
WR - DK Metcalf - SEA - $20
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA - $16
WR - A.J. Brown - TEN - $13
WR - Allen Lazard - GB - $13
WR - Corey Davis - TEN - $10
WR - Isaiah McKenzie - BUF - $10
WR - James Washington - PIT - $5
WR - TreQuan Smith - NO - $4
WR - Equanimeous St. Brown - GB - $4
TE - Cameron Brate - TB - $7
TE - Jonnu Smith - TEN - $7
TE - Jacob Hollister - SEA - $5
TE - Will Dissly - SEA - $4
PK - Jason Myers - SEA - $6
PK - Sam Sloman - TEN - $5
TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA - $6
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN - $3

Total value: 250

10 players this weekend and 12 next if the games go my way. Then 8 for the Championship and 16 in the SB. 

 

Not likely really, but what the hell?

 

Good luck to everyone!

 

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QB - Tom Brady - 28
QB - Ben Roethlisberger - 22
QB - Alex Smith - 8
RB - Ronald Jones II - 19
RB - Zack Moss - 13
RB - James Conner - 12
RB - Leonard Fournette - 11
RB - Carlos Hyde - 4
RB - Benny Snell - 3
WR - John Brown - 18
WR - Marquise Brown - 13
WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - 13
WR - Chase Claypool - 12
WR - David Moore - 6
WR - Willie Snead IV - 6
WR - Marquez Callaway - 5
WR - Scott Miller - 5
TE - Jared Cook - 15
TE - Rob Gronkowski - 14
PK - Ryan Succop - 10
PK - Chris Boswell - 6
TD - Pittsburgh Steelers - 7

Total value: 250

 

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Didn't really consider too many Kansas City combos which is a little nutty I guess.  I did run some Baltimore scenarios and briefly had a Tampa one.

Couldn't pull the trigger on the last-second switch to the Ratbirds - just a very tough rode for them and Jackson has to prove it.

-QG

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Had gone Pitt/Sea for a long time, but decided it was KC/Sea. Now just to see if there is enough to get there should they both make it:

QB - Patrick Mahomes II - 39
QB - Russell Wilson - 25
RB - Chris Carson - 18
RB - Le'Veon Bell - 9
RB - Carlos Hyde - 4
WR - Tyreek Hill - 29
WR - Tyler Lockett - 16
WR - Sammy Watkins - 12
WR - David Moore - 6
WR - Scott Miller - 5
WR - Tre'Quan Smith - 4
WR - Dez Bryant - 3
WR - Freddie Swain - 2
TE - Travis Kelce - 34
TE - Jacob Hollister - 5
PK - Jason Myers - 6
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - 9
TD - Green Bay Packers - 8
TD - Pittsburgh Steelers - 7
TD - Seattle Seahawks - 6
TD - Indianapolis Colts - 3

Total value: 250

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My team is stupid and has zero chance, but this is what I'm rolling with:

Corey Davis 10
Mahomes 39
Tyreek 29
Kelce 34
D Williams 4
Rodgers 36
A Jones 25
Adams 36
Tonyan 19
MVS 11
Marcedes Lewis 3
E St Brown 4

Betting on auto advance week 1, if not there is a non zero chance Davis gets me enough. There is probably no shot at getting past divisional round, though. If #of entries is low enough, and if GB KC playmakers set the mark, ???

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20 hours ago, steeler6 said:

Clipped this from a post from last year from TheWinz. Anybody know how many entries into the subscriber contest this year? 

 

2019 - 12583 regular season entries vs 3057 post season entries (24%) - 4 Jan was first WC game
2018 - 15080 regular season entries vs 6782 post season entries (45%) - 5 Jan was first WC game
2017 - 13484 regular season entries vs 6679 post season entries (50%) - 6 Jan was first WC game
2016 - 14869 regular season entries vs 6284 post season entries (42%) - 7 Jan was first WC game
2015 - 13634 regular season entries vs 5522 post season entries (41%) - 9 Jan was first WC game
2014 - 14270 regular season entries vs 4706 post season entries (33%) - 3 Jan was first WC game
2013 - 14393 regular season entries vs 4146 post season entries (29%) - 4 Jan was first WC game
2012 - 13293 regular season entries vs 5005 post season entries (38%) - 5 Jan was first WC game
2011 - 10753 regular season entries vs 5915 post season entries (55%) - 7 Jan was first WC game
2010 - 13038 regular season entries vs 6896 post season entries (53%) - 8 Jan was first WC game
2009 - 13250 regular season entries vs 8884 post season entries (67%) - 9 Jan was first WC game

Over before it begins for me. I didn’t think there was a chance in heck they would get 4k entries this year so I went packers/chiefs stack. Oh well. 2 years in a row I have guessed wrong on the most important aspect of the contest.

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2 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

That means I'm toast but I'm actually really glad to hear it. That is the way it should be.

The way it should be is by percentage, but we’ve been saying that for years and nobody cares. 

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2 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

That means I'm toast but I'm actually really glad to hear it. That is the way it should be.

With >6000 entries, I am glad no free week.  But I never made it back to update my roster and it has all Packers & Cheifs!  So I am gone too! 

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For what it's worth, here's my roster. I went with my first draft unchanged, lol:

 

QB - Patrick Mahomes - KC - $39
QB - Tom Brady - TB - $28
RB - Devin Singletary - BUF - $16
RB - Latavius Murray - NO - $13
RB - Leonard Fournette - TB - $11
RB - Darrel Williams - KC - $4
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC - $29
WR - Mike Evans - TB - $20
WR - Cole Beasley - BUF - $15
WR - TreQuan Smith - NO - $4
WR - Dez Bryant - BAL - $3
TE - Travis Kelce - KC - $34
TE - Rob Gronkowski - TB - $14
PK - Harrison Butker - KC - $10
PK - Ryan Succop - TB - $10

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47 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

With >6000 entries, I am glad no free week.  But I never made it back to update my roster and it has all Packers & Cheifs!  So I am gone too! 

Between this number of entries and only 2 teams on bye -gonna be a high week 1 cut line :scared:

And sorry gb :(

-QG

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1 hour ago, QuizGuy66 said:

Welp here it is - was gonna do one last change at the last second to add the Green Bay defense but too late...

QB J Allen BUF 40

WR S Diggs BUF 32

WR C Beasley BUF 15

TE D Knox BUF 12

QB A Rodgers GB 36

RB A Dillon GB 6

WR A Lazard GB 13

WR D Adams GB 36

WR M Valdes-Scantling GB 11

QB R Wilson SEA 25

WR C Claypool PIT 12

WR S Watkins KC 12

 

Tried to swap in Tannehill, J Washington, Burton  and take out Wilson and Claypool so I could get GB defense in there too but too late.

Good luck all!

-QG

Alright so what I got this week with this:

Best 2 Bills - Knox scoring that touchdown could be really big for me.

Wilson

Claypool

Yeah - need the Bills running it up for me.

-QG

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There are so many ways you can set lineups this year - wavered through a few different strategies and landed on one where I try I give my self a very small probability of sneaking through round 1 then rely on a Buf GB super bowl.

Josh Allen $40 

Stefon Diggs $32 

Tyler Bass $14 

Patrick Mahomes $39 

Aaron Rodgers $36 

Aaron Jones $25 

Davante Adams $36 

Robert Tonyan $19 

Mason Crosby $9 

 

Good luck all!

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At least with the high prices for the favorites the odds of a lock-out winner are pretty low for those combinations.

As I type this it also makes me regret passing on the Ratbirds as that would have increased my chances to do that ;)

-QG

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7 hours ago, ConstruxBoy said:

I had an entry with 12 players betting on my Bills playing the Saints in the SB. Then I saw The Winz' post about getting all members of SB teams for under $250. And scanning the list of mostly bad teams, two caught my eyes: TEN-SEA and BAL-SEA. Those three teams could make it. Why not take the chance and get all (or most) of their players? 

So I went with TEN-SEA and ended up with this:

Your team has been successfully entered.

QB - Russell Wilson - SEA - $25
QB - Ryan Tannehill - TEN - $20
QB - Philip Rivers - IND - $12
RB - Chris Carson - SEA - $18
RB - Derrick Henry - TEN - $16
RB - Zack Moss - BUF - $13
RB - Carlos Hyde - SEA - $4
RB - Darrel Williams - KC - $4
WR - DK Metcalf - SEA - $20
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA - $16
WR - A.J. Brown - TEN - $13
WR - Allen Lazard - GB - $13
WR - Corey Davis - TEN - $10
WR - Isaiah McKenzie - BUF - $10
WR - James Washington - PIT - $5
WR - TreQuan Smith - NO - $4
WR - Equanimeous St. Brown - GB - $4
TE - Cameron Brate - TB - $7
TE - Jonnu Smith - TEN - $7
TE - Jacob Hollister - SEA - $5
TE - Will Dissly - SEA - $4
PK - Jason Myers - SEA - $6
PK - Sam Sloman - TEN - $5
TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA - $6
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN - $3

Total value: 250

10 players this weekend and 12 next if the games go my way. Then 8 for the Championship and 16 in the SB. 

 

Not likely really, but what the hell?

 

Good luck to everyone!

 

That Rams defense! Oooops

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8 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

With >6000 entries, I am glad no free week.  But I never made it back to update my roster and it has all Packers & Cheifs!  So I am gone too! 

All Packers and Chiefs here too, except Henry, Metcalf and Myers. Losing DK is going to hurt if I make it to next week.

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I went with a Bills vs Saints Super Bowl, but only have three Bills and five Saints, with one of the Bills being Z. Moss. I have 79.3 points today and still count all of L. Jackson, Andrews, and my top two Saints.

Bills - J. Allen, Diggs & Z. Moss

Rams - Rams DST

Ravens - L. Jackson & Andrews

Saints - Brees, Kamara, M. Thomas, Sanders & Cook

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8 hours ago, ConstruxBoy said:

Yeah, fun to go out with the second game of the weekend. At least the Bills won. 

Yup me too, my blind homerism for SEA has killed me for years in this contest, one day I will learn.....

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Went GB/Pit heavy.  Got 14.5 from Matt Gay and 8.3 from McKissick (Smith not playing hurt).  Will get Dobbins and Henry scores, plus best two of Ben, JuJu, Johnson, Claypool and Conner.

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19 hours ago, ConstruxBoy said:

Yeah, fun to go out with the second game of the weekend. At least the Bills won. 

And down go the Titans. Both SB picks gone in the first 4 games. Sigh. Should have stuck with Bills-Saints.

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I put all 250 eggs in the KC/GB basket and was done as soon as the contest opened.  Guessed wrong, but very happy to see 6K entries.  Remember that list of 31 teams I posted on page 1?  Well, after just 4 games, that list is down to 11, and will whittle itself down to only 2 teams with losses by CHI & CLE tonight.

CHI vs CLE = $119
CLE vs LAR = $134
CHI vs PIT = $160
CHI vs BAL = $165
LAR vs PIT = $175
LAR vs BAL = $180
CLE vs TB = $224
CHI vs KC = $236
CLE vs NO = $238
CHI vs BUF = $249
CLE vs GB = $249
 

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95 pts in round one.  Not sure that will be enough as I suspect the cut will be over 100 with only two teams on a bye.  Lost Wilson so I will only have 5 scoring next week which will be the end of the road.

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3 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

95 pts in round one.  Not sure that will be enough as I suspect the cut will be over 100 with only two teams on a bye.  Lost Wilson so I will only have 5 scoring next week which will be the end of the road.

Ugh if its 100 I am done

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7 hours ago, TheWinz said:

CLE vs LAR = $134
LAR vs PIT = $175
LAR vs BAL = $180
CLE vs TB = $224
CLE vs NO = $238
CLE vs GB = $249

Anyone with these teams?

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163 or so the first week, but the Steelers losing to the Browns now has the Ravens playing the Bills.  I will have seven scores next week, but due to the Ravens playing the Bills, I will lose one of my four teams. Plus I likely lost Z Moss to injury. Likely advanced and could advance next week, but will then have only five maximum scorers the third week of the playoffs.

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I wasn't counting on a free week, but I'm surprised to see the number of entries/cuts.

I started with a 15-man roster, and still have 14 going into next week, losing only Vance McDonald.  I only beat the cutline by 15, but I think I'm in good shape going forward.  I didn't swing for the fences, loading up on one team, so I hope to do well in week 3 as well.  Go Pack, Go Chiefs, Go Bills, and Geaux Saints!

Josh Allen $40 
Stefon Diggs $32 
Tyler Bass $14 

Vance McDonald $2  

Clyde Edwards-Helaire $17  
Darrel Williams $4 

Matt Gay $4 
Los Angeles Rams $5  

Alvin Kamara $28 
Jared Cook $15 
New Orleans Saints $11 

Aaron Rodgers $36 
Davante Adams $36 
Equanimeous St. Brown $4  
Jace Sternberger $2 
 

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5 minutes ago, Synthesizer said:

Quickly glanced at the top 20 scoring entries for the week.  0 have any chance of winning this contest.  Still don't like the contest rules.

The goal is not to win week 1.  As long as the rules are spelled out at the beginning, and everyone plays by the same rules, it's fair to all.

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5 minutes ago, Synthesizer said:

Quickly glanced at the top 20 scoring entries for the week.  0 have any chance of winning this contest.  Still don't like the contest rules.

I have always considered it part of the unique challenge of the contest tbh.  Those entries are like sandtraps on the golf course.  

By the way for the curious there were a total of 29 entries that went full GB/KC apparently.  A reminder that strategies a little more prevalent on the thread aren't representative of the contest as a whole ;)

-QG

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