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RB Michael Carter, claimed by AZ (1 Viewer)

Biabreakable said:
I watched the first half of this game last night. Some observations.

Ty Johnson looks more decisive than Carter does to me and he showed more burst and acceleration than Carter did. Carter seemed indecisive to me at times looking for holes to develop that didn't. Johnson finishes his runs stronger than Carter does, not that either had good yards after contact that I saw, but I think defenders felt Johnson a bit more on contact than they did Carter who was more trying to slip away than just putting his head down and trying to win that way.

Michael Carter has better footwork and change of direction ability than Johnson does. This is something I really like about Carter is his shiftyness. He didnt really make anyone miss with this though but he is trying to do that, Johnson is not.

Ty Johnson reminds me more of Tevin Coleman as far as his play style.

Despite this difference Johnson failed to convert on two short yardage opportunities he had. What I am talking about is more style than substance.

I thought the blocking was pretty good early on but the Giants defense seemed to adjust and do a better job of containing them in the 2nd quarter.

Carter didn't impress me as much in this game as he did in cut ups of his play in college. What I saw was I think a bit tentative and indecisive, like he is adjusting to the speed of the pro game.

Ilov80s asked about success rates of RB by order they were selected not round. Workdog did a VBD study of this quite a few years back now here that is. Its kind of odd but the 5th RB selected has been slightly more productive than the 4th RB selected but its still somewhat close for RB 4-6 and then a big drop off for the 7th RB selected and after that. This seems counter intuitive and I think the result is somewhat random with some small sample size of successful RB bringing these numbers up a bit for the 5th RB. If anything what I would take away from this is that you want RB who were top 6 of their class and to be more leery of RB selected after that.

I do think Carter has been overdrafted a bit based on how high he went in rookie polls pick 12 but as already mentioned I think this is more because of the 2021 draft class being a bit weak for fantasy skill players besides the QBs. 

The way the two RB were used did seem to be RBBC. Johnson would be in for 2 or 3 touches then they bring in Carter. I saw this pattern repeat itself so it seems to be by design. The Jets did have the ball a lot longer than the Giants so we had the opportunity to see this useage develop. Johnson did seem to be the preferred RB on short yardage attempts but as I mentioned he was not successful in converting those.

I need to see more of course but I came away from this being a little bit disappointed with Carter compared to my impression of his ability watching him at the college level. I am less confident in him being a better RB than Coleman now than I was before watching this game.
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Got all of that in one preseason game.  Hmm.

 
JohnnyU said:
Got all of that in one preseason game.  Hmm.
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Was all that a lot?

Just my observations of what I saw and my opinions about that.

If your point is I'm reading too much into preseason games maybe so but that's all I was talking about here, what I saw in this preseason game.

 
Biabreakable said:
JohnnyU said:
Got all of that in one preseason game.  Hmm.
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Was all that a lot?

Just my observations of what I saw and my opinions about that.

If your point is I'm reading too much into preseason games maybe so but that's all I was talking about here, what I saw in this preseason game.
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It may be all opinion/conjecture, but I appreciate when people take the time to provide some in-depth and thoughtful analysis that many of us don't provide.

Keep up the good work, Bia 👍

 
Seems to still be playing third fiddle in today's Jets game, which seems to be their "dress rehearsal" game with lots of starters playing. Returned a kick, but hasn't been on the field at RB yet that I've seen. Coleman started and Ty Johnson has filled in so far.

 
mcintyre1 said:
Seems to still be playing third fiddle in today's Jets game, which seems to be their "dress rehearsal" game with lots of starters playing. Returned a kick, but hasn't been on the field at RB yet that I've seen. Coleman started and Ty Johnson has filled in so far.
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Yeah.  Not only 3rd in the pecking order for touches today, but also returning kicks.  If Carter is going to be your RB that gets the most touches this year--having him return kicks in pre-season seems weird.  

 
jm192 said:
Yeah.  Not only 3rd in the pecking order for touches today, but also returning kicks.  If Carter is going to be your RB that gets the most touches this year--having him return kicks in pre-season seems weird.  
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Have to have some patience. With a rookie QB,  I expect the veterans Coleman and Johnson to get more play at first to protect Wilson until Carter proves himself in pass pro.

 
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zamboni said:
Have to have some patience. With a rookie QB,  I expect the veterans Coleman and Johnson to get more play at first to protect Wilson until Carter proves himself in pass pro.
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Sure.  But, I would think if that's the thought process--wouldn't you work in 1 of those 2 guys for pass protection--and let Carter be the 2nd back and at least get Reps in the run game?  It's one thing when an experienced vet is ahead of you because of pass pro.  But 2?

As far as redraft--how much patience can you allow?  I suspect we'll see his ADP start to dip and maybe he's at the right price.  

And as far as dynasty--a lot of the allure was that the other RB's on the roster aren't that good, so he should get a real shot early.  And now he's not beating those less than good RB's.  

 
jm192 said:
Sure.  But, I would think if that's the thought process--wouldn't you work in 1 of those 2 guys for pass protection--and let Carter be the 2nd back and at least get Reps in the run game?  It's one thing when an experienced vet is ahead of you because of pass pro.  But 2?

As far as redraft--how much patience can you allow?  I suspect we'll see his ADP start to dip and maybe he's at the right price.  

And as far as dynasty--a lot of the allure was that the other RB's on the roster aren't that good, so he should get a real shot early.  And now he's not beating those less than good RB's.  
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Good questions, although Coleman and Johnson have been effective so far. We’ll see when the real games start - I expect Coleman will either get hurt or be ineffective. Don’t rule out Johnson here though - the guy can play and has serious speed.

 
Perplexing preseason usage for a guy who’s running with the first team in practice.

feeling like he’s an avoid at his ADP. people seem to be drafting him as though he’s the leader of the timeshare. Feels like Tevin Coleman might be the man there. 🤔 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Perplexing preseason usage for a guy who’s running with the first team in practice.

feeling like he’s an avoid at his ADP. people seem to be drafting him as though he’s the leader of the timeshare. Feels like Tevin Coleman might be the man there. 🤔 
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I don't know, but this is all a little suspicious. I might try to move him in dynasty while his value is still high.

 
Bald Bull said:
I don't know, but this is all a little suspicious. I might try to move him in dynasty while his value is still high.
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I definitely would not draft him in re-draft at his current value. Too many running backs around him with better upside, at least theoretically.

there was quite a bit of optimism around him early. I draft a week from today, so I doubt there will be much clarity between now and then.

 
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jm192 said:
  And as far as dynasty--a lot of the allure was that the other RB's on the roster aren't that good, so he should get a real shot early.  And now he's not beating those less than good RB's.  
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I don't think that has changed. It's still very early, right?

 
It’s disappointing that he hasn’t been getting run with the 1st team or ahead of the other guys in preseason games, but he still seems like their best RB to me. I think that wins out sooner rather than later. Though how long it takes the coaches to go along with that can make a big difference to your re-draft/keeper team depending on who you have on your team ahead of him.

 
Ilov80s said:
jm192 said:
And as far as dynasty--a lot of the allure was that the other RB's on the roster aren't that good, so he should get a real shot early.  And now he's not beating those less than good RB's.  
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I don't think that has changed. It's still very early, right?
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Yes it is. View it as a gift if his ADP falls in dynasty. It won’t in my league though given that half of us are Jets fans.

 
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zamboni said:
Have to have some patience. With a rookie QB,  I expect the veterans Coleman and Johnson to get more play at first to protect Wilson until Carter proves himself in pass pro.
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During the Senior Bowl practices that Bloom and Lammey attended he was specifically called out by both for being the absolute worst RB in pass protection drills..

 
GroveDiesel said:
It’s disappointing that he hasn’t been getting run with the 1st team or ahead of the other guys in preseason games, but he still seems like their best RB to me. I think that wins out sooner rather than later. Though how long it takes the coaches to go along with that can make a big difference to your re-draft/keeper team depending on who you have on your team ahead of him.
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I agree.

I think he may need some seasoning before this fully manifests itself though.

He is a rookie after all.

I don't want to read too much into preseason games, but what I observed in the first game as far as his indecisiveness is something I think goes away once he gains more experience. I do think Carter is a good player and I like his upside more than Coleman or Johnson, but it may be awhile before we start seeing that in games that matter.

I don't think any coach wants to start a rookie QB and a rookie RB at the same time. They want to have at least one of those players to have some experience and know what they are doing out there for the overall cohesiveness of the offense. if Carter has a weakness in pass protection this is a pretty big deal as far as the coach trusting Carter to play a lot right away. The priority is to set the QB up for success.

 
menobrown said:
Can't help but think Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman might be competing for the same job and the usage we've seen the last two weeks with TJ and with both of them today is more about that competition then the depth chart for the upcoming season.
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This is a great point. I see some similarity in how Coleman and Johnson play, whereas I think Carter has a different play style and skill set than they do. So as you say this may be for the coaches to try to decide which of these 2 are going to play that role for them while Carters role for them may be something else. Change of pace.

 
zamboni said:
I was sorry for not having loss #15 last year vis-a-vis Lawrence and Wilson.  Now not so sure 👍
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My uncle, life long Jets fan, just passed away last week at the young age of 62. I post here in his honor and also to say that his passing will lead to the Jets surprising everyone and finally turning it around. 🤞🤞🤞

Go Jets! (Says the lifelong Raiders’ fan, but I truly mean it )

 
joey said:
My uncle, life long Jets fan, just passed away last week at the young age of 62. I post here in his honor and also to say that his passing will lead to the Jets surprising everyone and finally turning it around. 🤞🤞🤞

Go Jets! (Says the lifelong Raiders’ fan, but I truly mean it )
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I’m very sorry, GB

 
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joey said:
My uncle, life long Jets fan, just passed away last week at the young age of 62. I post here in his honor and also to say that his passing will lead to the Jets surprising everyone and finally turning it around. 🤞🤞🤞

Go Jets! (Says the lifelong Raiders’ fan, but I truly mean it )
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I’m very sorry to hear that and condolences to you and your family.  I’m also 62. Life is short, so live everyday to the fullest.

 
joey said:
My uncle, life long Jets fan, just passed away last week at the young age of 62. I post here in his honor and also to say that his passing will lead to the Jets surprising everyone and finally turning it around. 🤞🤞🤞

Go Jets! (Says the lifelong Raiders’ fan, but I truly mean it )
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Came to check in on Carter before the draft and saw this.  Sorry for your loss GB.  I'm sure he's got an excellent seat up in heaven.  Gotta be a saint to put up with the Jets.

 
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Any news on this guy? Anyone still think he takes over this backfield by midseason?

 
Doesn't sound too promising from all the reports I have read. Sounds like Coleman and Ty Johnson will get the first crack at it. Interested to see how they use him in the pass game as the games progress. 

 
ATB said:
Any news on this guy? Anyone still think he takes over this backfield by midseason?
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There is a good chance. I wouldn't roster him for redraft but for dynasty, I still think the competition is pretty weak. Carter is not a good pass blocker and I can understand wanting to be cautious since Wilson is the franchise right now. Having a veteran with him in the backfield to start the year does make sense. If Carter has got the goods, he will get his shot. It's a long season. 

 
yellowdog said:
Anyone see the game yesterday? His stat line was the best of the bunch, how did he look?
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I thought he looked good...quick and some nice cuts...will be interesting to see how the year plays out for him as the team is in a rebuild mode and they seem like they want to go with an RBBC.

 
Boston said:
I thought he looked good...quick and some nice cuts...will be interesting to see how the year plays out for him as the team is in a rebuild mode and they seem like they want to go with an RBBC.
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Agreed, looked pretty difficult to tackle in the open field and was able to get the edge when it was there. I am sure his role will only grow. 

 
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Cobbler1 said:
Wow yeah, I’ll third this. He looked elusive and broke a few tackles. 13 touches yesterday. Should grow into a 15+ role.
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I am as wrong as anyone but I sure thought he looked like a legit player at UNC. Probably never a workhorse (though who is anymore) but a player who could provide what Ekeler or a healthy Dion Lewis are/were able to. 

 
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Ilov80s said:
I am as wrong as anyone but I sure thought he looked like a legit player at UNC. Probably never a workhorse (though who is anymore) but a player who could provide what Ekeler or a healthy Dion Lewis are/were able to. 
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Just be Ekeler! That’s what I would do

 
He plays for a terrible team. The coach states that the offense dictates that whoever of the 3 is hot gets the ball. I have him, but he will be my next drop if something interesting comes along.

 
Coleman out this week. Carter could get a decent amount of touches, would love to see what he can do with the opportunity. 

 
TampaMike19 said:
Why drop now? The usage just spiked and so did the yardage. Genie is almost out of the bottle 
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Yep. I was able to scoop him up in two smaller keeper leagues because of impatient owners dropping him before week 2. The uptick in usage is promising, but I can't say I've seen any of his touches.

 
Cobbler1 said:
Well the Jets are horrible obviously but you don't drop someone who just got 3/4 of the rb carries and 2/3 of the opportunities. Denver D on the road is a tall task. Better days ahead if he does take over this backfield.
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Well said, thanks. My process was for later on in the year. This week I’m having a hard time accepting the results didn’t work out 

 
Michael Carter started the Jets' Week 3 loss to the Broncos, rushing nine times for 24 yards and catching 2-of-3 targets for five yards.

Carter out-touched Ty Johnson 11-4 in Tevin Coleman's absence, but it did not matter in a contest where the Jets categorically failed to move the ball behind their awful offensive line. They were down two scores the final 45 minutes of the game, making run-friendly game script an impossibility. Carter remains the only long-term bet worth making in his backfield, but in the short term, he can't reasonably be called a FLEX, including for Week 4 against the Titans.
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