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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Kadarius Toney, Giants


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6 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

I don't think there is anything wrong with the pre-draft slotting, but what you're describing is why I made trades to try and get out of the 20's (we also do IDP). Someone needs to be picked 22nd, but I think it's possible (probable?) that guys picked 32nd aren't much different wrt value. I think there's going to be a tier drop around pick 21-23 then it's a muddled mess into the 30's. That said, I think there are a couple guys going in the top 20 (like Toney) that I won't rank there come May 1 and there will probably be a couple guys outside of it that I'd consider not trading away from (like Williams).

Yeah, I haven't watched all of the guys yet, but the tier break at around that point is something to look at now that you mention it. I actually see some guys I think are slotted too low that I'd value more as second rounders with mad potential than getting a WR like, say, a Surratt or Toney. I know you do IDP, too, so I'm not sure who you've got in there from a defensive standpoint, but yeah, I can see the tier break around then. Thankfully ( somewhat ruefully looking at your tier break) I have 22 and 23, too. I'd probably have one or two guys slotted ahead of where they are now (or maybe should be) and the break happens for me at like 25 or 26, but again, I haven't sat and done that. I'll probably do that after the draft.

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Interesting counter-take. I’ve had three rookie drafts. In one he went in Round 1, but in other two he went mid-to-late Round 2. We all think we’re smarter than NFL GMs - although admittedly Gettleman

People really liked Aiyuk last year. He just fell because there were so many players to like. Taylor, CEH,Dobbins, Swift, Akers, Lamb, Jeudy, Higgins, shRuggs, Jefferson, Burrow, Reagor, Mims, Shenaul

2021 NFL draft film room: Florida WR Kadarius Toney

Just now, rockaction said:

Yeah, I haven't watched all of the guys yet, but the tier break at around that point is something to look at now that you mention it. I actually see some guys pretty slotted too low that I'd value more as second rounders with mad potential than getting a WR like, say, a Surratt or Toney. I know you do IDP, too, so I'm not sure who you've got in there from a defensive standpoint, but yeah, I can see the tier break around then. Thankfully ( somewhat ruefully looking at your tier break) I have 22 and 23, too. I'd probably have one or two guys slotted ahead of where they are now (or maybe should be) and the break happens for me at like 25 or 26, but again, I haven't sat and done that. I'll probably do that after the draft.

The top of this IDP class is light. Whether the rest of it is deep or not and when to target them depends on the league. I loaded up on mid round picks in one (53 active + 10 taxi) but purged them in another (keep 35 + 5 round draft).

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1 minute ago, MAC_32 said:

The top of this IDP class is light. Whether the rest of it is deep or not and when to target them depends on the league. I loaded up on mid round picks in one (53 active + 10 taxi) but purged them in another (keep 35 + 5 round draft).

Thanks. I'm looking at the linebackers and only one really sticks out to me. The other seems like his position is up in the air (and I'm not wasting a second-rounder to find out he's a safety) and the rest have holes, it seems. Depends really where they go in the draft. The D-Line I'm barely looking at because I don't have picks in the range of the top ones and I'm not wasting again, a second rounder on a guy that might make it on defense. Don't need the help enough in the scoring format I play under. I think Zealots is a little light on the defensive scoring even though it's heavy on the amount of players used. Linebackers are really key. DBs are replacebale, and D-Line scores light compared to the offense.

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36 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Receiver or chanteuse?

These days, you never know.

And I wouldn't reach like that but I don't pick again until he's surely gone in the fifth. In that league I have 4, 5, 16, 20, 22, 23. then no third or fourth rounder to speak of. :(

Used them in addressing different needs. Rather have six in the first two than two in the first two.

Why not both but yes exactly 

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I don't know how this guy is going to go early in rookie drafts if everybody hates him. From the sounds of folks, independent of landing spot he will be there at the end of the 2nd early 3rd. It doesn't sound like too many people would go for him even if he gets drafted high.

Serious question, how high are you willing to take Toney if you need WRs (I don't know how that is possible) if he gets drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft? Not saying that is or isn't likely to happen. 

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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

I don't know how this guy is going to go early in rookie drafts if everybody hates him. From the sounds of folks, independent of landing spot he will be there at the end of the 2nd early 3rd. It doesn't sound like too many people would go for him even if he gets drafted high.

Serious question, how high are you willing to take Toney if you need WRs (I don't know how that is possible) if he gets drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft? Not saying that is or isn't likely to happen. 

I don't start thinking about questions like this until day 3 of the draft, but I would give him stronger consideration if a good team picked him late round 1.

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On 4/17/2021 at 12:44 PM, MAC_32 said:

I don't start thinking about questions like this until day 3 of the draft, but I would give him stronger consideration if a good team picked him late round 1.

He's still very hard for me to gauge for fantasy.   His thin build, limited route running ability (so far), and troubles at the line of scrimmage may limit his ceiling in the NFL. We're probably looking at a guy that at best, is a decent NFL WR 3, not fantasy WR3, playing the slot.

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2021 NFL Draft: Ja'Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts headline Next Gen Stats' can't-miss prospects

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Kadarius Toney, WR Florida - 22 years old 

Production Score: 81

Athleticism Score: 99

OVERALL DRAFT SCORE: 92

PRO BOWL PROBABILITY: 13%

The final name on this list of 2021 can't-miss prospects is actually more of a borderline first-rounder than the rest. While Jeremiah had Toney making the cut in his first two mock drafts, the Florida playmaker isn't among the top 32 selections in Version 3.0. Still, I wanted to bend the rules set out in the introduction of this file a bit because the numbers suggest Toney could be a good one. So, let's call this the wild card of the list. Toney was limited to only one full season as a starter at Florida -- as a senior in 2020 -- in part due to injuries and a loaded depth chart. When Toney was given a bigger role in the offense last season, the Alabama native made the most of the opportunity. The dynamic all-purpose contributor made plays as a receiver, in the running game and as a return specialist, showing off elite run-after-catch ability whenever he touched the football. The uber-athlete is one of only two receivers in this year's class (alongside Ja'Marr Chase) to earn a max 99 athleticism score, driven by elite numbers posted in the 40-yard dash (4.37), broad jump (11 feet, 4 inches) and vertical leap (39.5 inches) at Florida's pro day on March 31st. The last Gators wide receiver to enter the draft with an athleticism score over 82? Percy Harvin in 2009 (89 athleticism score).

 

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Those asked to describe Toney's game typically answer the same way: Guarding him in the open field is futile.

"I've yet to see someone cover him one-on-one in the open field," Florida quarterback Kyle Trask said.

That has pretty much been the case for years now. Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy remembers hearing about Toney's legend as a prep quarterback in 2018. Nagy was moving to Senior Bowl headquarters in Mobile, Alabama, where stories spread about Toney at nearby Blount High School, "stopping on a dime in a way you can't coach." Three years later, Nagy watched Toney break off defensive backs in Senior Bowl one-on-ones by 5 to 10 yards of separation. "One hesitation and he's gone," Nagy said.

Toney became a master at shaking defenders at Florida, with him and Alabama's DeVonta Smith trading highlight-reel plays each week in the SEC.

Though primarily a slot receiver in Florida, with 78% of his routes coming from the inside, Toney also rushed the ball 19 times for 161 yards, ranking among the top five nationally in touches (89), scrimmage yards (1,145), TDs (11) and yards after first contact (297).

On a particular play against Ole Miss, Toney hit light speed on five Rebels defenders surrounding him on a simple jet-motion, one-cut handoff. What should have been a 2-yard gain went for 50. One AFC scout compared him to another Florida great, Percy Harvin, which is good news for advanced offenses that scheme up touches for players who win in space. Harvin went 22nd overall in the 2009 draft, and many mock drafts have Toney in the 18-to-30 range.

"Teams are excited for how they might use me," said Toney, who has had productive Zoom meetings with the Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, the 49ers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Football Team and more. "Most of them see me as a slot receiver and returner. But I have a lot of experience taking the ball out of the backfield. I'm open to all of it."

That San Francisco is talking to Toney is buzzworthy, considering what the team just did with Deebo Samuel.

The 49ers drafted Samuel in the second round of the 2019 draft and turned him into a yards-after-possession demon. As a rookie, he averaged 13.5 yards per touch, including three rushing touchdowns on 14 carries.

"Deebo opened eyes for players like [Toney] -- like, look what you can do with him," Nagy said.

But Nagy is quick to point out that while Toney can handle the jet sweeps and the boomerang running plays, he is a tough slot receiver at the core.

The Gators didn't scheme Toney deep that often, with eight of his 87 targets traveling 20-plus yards downfield. He still forced an SEC-high 21 missed tackles on mostly short-to-intermediate work.

Toney has the mentality of a feisty corner. He wants a challenge, wants contact.

"He plays so much bigger and stronger and he's so competitive," Nagy said. "He's so much stronger on contact than most guys his size. His mindset and strength are what set him apart. He has the joystick ability and can rip under stuff.

"To call him a gadget guy is almost insulting."

Toney doesn't care about gadgets, as long as the ball finds his hands. Toney's game is far from a finished product. Some scouts want to see more refined route running, citing choice routes at Florida that gave Toney options to beat defenders in the moment. At the pro level, he'll need more precision on his routes, the scouts said. One scout questioned the reliability of his hands.

But Toney says he's eager for that challenge, and his days as a high school quarterback taught him to "learn every detail" and "grab the whole playbook."

"I try to put myself through all situations mentally so that when the game comes, I go out there and play free," Toney said. "I envision the defense I'm going to see. I lock in. And with my quickness and my bend, being able to move the way I do, I can handle what I planned to see."

There's a flip side scouts see, too: A special athlete like this shouldn't have his creativity hampered. Asking Toney to run rigid routes all game might take away from the freaky things he can do in one-on-ones.

The wildest thing that happened at Florida's pro day was a busted broad jump that said everything about Toney's ability. Toney's first attempt was 10 feet, 4 inches, which is not impressive. But he jumped up and out instead of in a straight line. After a coach admonished him, he regrouped to jump 11-4. But clearing 10 feet with a Gateway Arch trajectory on that first attempt is silly.

Those who coached Toney's elite burst in college can't wait to see what he does with an NFL playbook.

"He's scratching the surface of what he's going to become at the next level," Florida head coach Dan Mullen said. "He keeps erasing every question people have about him everywhere he goes."

 

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  • Faust changed the title to Dynasty & Redraft: WR Kadarius Toney, Giants
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Giants selected Florida WR Kadarius Toney with the No. 20 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

New York landed Toney after trading down from No. 11. He'll join a low-key solid receiver group, alongside Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton. In other words, Daniel Jones has no excuses in 2021. A converted dual-threat quarterback who was responsible for 120 total touchdowns during his prep career, Toney (5'11/193) was listed as an “athlete” on Florida's depth chart and only began learning the wide receiver position over his last 18 games at Florida. While he remains unpolished, he's perpetually one catch away from breaking a defense and proved as much at the Gators' pro day with sterling numbers in the 40-yard dash (4.37), broad jump (11'4) and vertical leap (39.5"). Toney sported a 96th percentile burst score. With experience as Florida's featured punt and kick returner in 2020, Toney will find ways onto the field for the Giants. 

Apr 29, 2021, 10:44 PM ET

 

 

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I hate the pick and rather would have had Darrishaw. Giants have tons of WRs that Jason Garrett will mismanage. Quoting for truth:

On 3/2/2021 at 12:20 PM, Gatorman said:

That's not 100% true.  Toney was a "weapon" but not really a WR.  This past year he was the "take it to the house guy" and the Deebo comparison is likely correct.  Problem with him (and Pitts to be honest) is they don't pigenhole to the position they are called.  Pitts is a WR/TE and Toney is a WR/RB/Athlete.  The Shanny and McVays of the world will unlock his potential, but a "standard" offensive system will not really work for him.  Carolina, Chicago, SF, LAR, Buf, and maybe new england are the right landing spots for him.  Miami, Pitt, Denver and other more "rigid offensive systems" are likely not his optimal landing spots (Arizona too.  He has the tools to be a playmaker in that type of system but I think he'd get lost in the shuffle)

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  • 2 weeks later...

I don't watch college football. Can someone tell me why this guy falling down draft boards? All I see is an electric playmaker taken in the first round, yet I got him late second in a 12 and then 14 team draft.

I know there are some early college off field stuff, but that's can't be why he's being shunned by dynasty folks. Is it just the "gadget" label? 

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15 minutes ago, tombonneau said:

I don't watch college football. Can someone tell me why this guy falling down draft boards? All I see is an electric playmaker taken in the first round, yet I got him late second in a 12 and then 14 team draft.

I know there are some early college off field stuff, but that's can't be why he's being shunned by dynasty folks. Is it just the "gadget" label? 

I got him later than expected in a rookie draft so I saw it firsthand...my guess is owners don’t trust he ability of the Giants and Daniel Jones in particular to put up enough numbers as a whole for Toney to be real effective from a fantasy standpoint...they have Golladay, Shepherd, Slayton, Engram and Barkley so there is a decent amount going on there...overall I think this is short-term thinking from a dynasty standpoint and hopefully long-term getting him later than expected will pay off in a nice way.

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20 minutes ago, tombonneau said:

I don't watch college football. Can someone tell me why this guy falling down draft boards? All I see is an electric playmaker taken in the first round, yet I got him late second in a 12 and then 14 team draft.

I know there are some early college off field stuff, but that's can't be why he's being shunned by dynasty folks. Is it just the "gadget" label? 

For me it’s landing spot more than anything. I passed on him for guys taken much later in the nfl draft, and I’m prepared to regret it.

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8 minutes ago, tombonneau said:

I don't watch college football. Can someone tell me why this guy falling down draft boards? All I see is an electric playmaker taken in the first round, yet I got him late second in a 12 and then 14 team draft.

I know there are some early college off field stuff, but that's can't be why he's being shunned by dynasty folks. Is it just the "gadget" label? 

I think he has as much upside as ANY WR in the draft and I draft WR's for upside. I also easily see a Cordarelle Patterson type of career. He's as boom/bust as it gets. I've known for quite some time the disparity between the way the NFL views him and way fantasy community views is about as wide as I've seen this year.

To answer your question the main knocks on him are one year of production, late breakout age, not a refined route runner which leads to thought process he needs things schemed for him which to some makes him a gadget and that's a particular problem when you have an OC who seems to lack creativity.

My take on all of these knocks:

One year of production: only started 2 games before his last season and one was at RB. Was a QB/athlete jack of all trades early on. Missed half the season in 2019. Was recruited as a QB. Did not become full time starting WR until his breakout season.

Breakout age: see above

Refined route runner/gadget- this is true for now. But I'll credit Jim Nagy for putting the thought in my head of quit focusing on what he is and instead focus on what he could be as a route runner when he posted this tweet:

Plenty of negative takes on Kadarius Toney’s route running. Whatever the knocks are, the most important thing to focus on is what @0fficialC2Nis physically capable of as a route runner. Tools-wise (stop/start, short-area COD, & burst), he has chance to be an elite separator

Jason Garrett- legit concern but I don't expect him to be around for long.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Boston said:

I got him later than expected in a rookie draft so I saw it firsthand...my guess is owners don’t trust he ability of the Giants and Daniel Jones in particular to put up enough numbers as a whole for Toney to be real effective from a fantasy standpoint...they have Golladay, Shepherd, Slayton, Engram and Barkley so there is a decent amount going on there...overall I think this is short-term thinking from a dynasty standpoint and hopefully long-term getting him later than expected will pay off in a nice way.

If memory serves I believe Toney hasn’t fully learned the position and has limited route running ability, but is dynamic with potential.  Too risky to take early 2nd in start 1 QBs dynasty leagues, but it sounds like you got him at good value.

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6 hours ago, menobrown said:

I think he has as much upside as ANY WR in the draft and I draft WR's for upside. I also easily see a Cordarelle Patterson type of career. He's as boom/bust as it gets. I've known for quite some time the disparity between the way the NFL views him and way fantasy community views is about as wide as I've seen this year.

To answer your question the main knocks on him are one year of production, late breakout age, not a refined route runner which leads to thought process he needs things schemed for him which to some makes him a gadget and that's a particular problem when you have an OC who seems to lack creativity.

My take on all of these knocks:

One year of production: only started 2 games before his last season and one was at RB. Was a QB/athlete jack of all trades early on. Missed half the season in 2019. Was recruited as a QB. Did not become full time starting WR until his breakout season.

Breakout age: see above

Refined route runner/gadget- this is true for now. But I'll credit Jim Nagy for putting the thought in my head of quit focusing on what he is and instead focus on what he could be as a route runner when he posted this tweet:

Plenty of negative takes on Kadarius Toney’s route running. Whatever the knocks are, the most important thing to focus on is what @0fficialC2Nis physically capable of as a route runner. Tools-wise (stop/start, short-area COD, & burst), he has chance to be an elite separator

Jason Garrett- legit concern but I don't expect him to be around for long.

 

 

Interesting counter-take. I’ve had three rookie drafts. In one he went in Round 1, but in other two he went mid-to-late Round 2. We all think we’re smarter than NFL GMs - although admittedly Gettleman presents a low bar.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/14/2021 at 2:37 PM, Dr. Octopus said:

We all think we’re smarter than NFL GMs - although admittedly Gettleman presents a low bar.

I think because when somebody sees a gadget guy -- or somebody perceived as a gadget guy -- they see a disconnect between the GM and the coach that actually has to use the player. It seems like high draft picks are littered with gadget guys that never truly broke out.

Matt Harmon's Reception Perception, a pretty good model of receivers overall, has Toney lowly-rated because he can't seem to beat press or man coverage at all. It's pretty bad, like at around 10-13%. Those numbers, he says, don't generally bode well for receivers at the next level, who are bigger, faster, and more physical than in college. Toney is 5'11" and can't beat press or man? Everyone just says "pass" at that point and expects a pick to be flopped.

But Waldman had him rated fairly highly, actually. So there's that.

I'm hanging my hat with Harmon on this one, and would rather be proved wrong than invest any capital in what seems like a losing proposition from the jump.

Edited by rockaction
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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Interesting counter-take. I’ve had three rookie drafts. In one he went in Round 1, but in other two he went mid-to-late Round 2. We all think we’re smarter than NFL GMs - although admittedly Gettleman presents a low bar.

I've completed 7 drafts:

 In 5 of the 7 drafts he went between 2.3-2.6 and each and every time as WR8 behind the same 7 WR's. Chase, Bama's, Moore's, Bateman and Marshall.

In a 6th draft he went 2.2(the highest he went in any draft) and one pick before Bateman but that's kind of bogus because the guy who picked 2.2 only drafts SEC players.

So for me it seems like he's settled in to being by and large consensus WR8. Personally I have him as WR6 but saying that still only drafted him once in 7 drafts and as the 8th WR.

The only outlier draft of mine was a 7th draft which was the one draft he fell the farthest, 2.8, but a team gave up it's 2022#1 for the pick to take him.(my team was at pick 2.12 furiously trying to trade down) but again in general he seems to have settled in as consensus WR8.

 

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Much thanks to the SP for shedding some light on to the causes of the general perceived value of Toney. 

I'm kind of reminded of how Aiyuk fell last year. Not saying it's the same player, just similar first round WR kind of being groupthink devalued. 

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30 minutes ago, need2know said:

Kinda dumb of the giants to get all these weapons but still don't have a qb

or an OC

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2 hours ago, tombonneau said:

Much thanks to the SP for shedding some light on to the causes of the general perceived value of Toney. 

I'm kind of reminded of how Aiyuk fell last year. Not saying it's the same player, just similar first round WR kind of being groupthink devalued. 

People really liked Aiyuk last year. He just fell because there were so many players to like. Taylor, CEH,Dobbins, Swift, Akers, Lamb, Jeudy, Higgins, shRuggs, Jefferson, Burrow, Reagor, Mims, Shenault, Gibson, Pittman. They couldn't all go 1st round. In the end, I think Aiyuk's ADP was 2.01. Against that level of the class, it's a valued landing spot. If Toney was in last year's class, I think he might end up in the 3rd round in ADP. If Aiyuk was in this class, he would be going around where Waddle is coming off the board. I don't think they are good comps. 

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Another red flag for me with Toney is given his gadgety nature and raw skillset, he might not have been a player the whole league really coveted. The odds seem high that the Giants GM and coaching staff are replaced after this year. It's very possible the new staff coming wasn't very high on Toney. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Another red flag for me with Toney is given his gadgety nature and raw skillset, he might not have been a player the whole league really coveted. The odds seem high that the Giants GM and coaching staff are replaced after this year. It's very possible the new staff coming wasn't very high on Toney. 

I think he's highly coveted by the league, have been saying for awhile he's far more coveted by NFL then fantasy people.

And Joe Judge is not going anywhere.

Edited by menobrown
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2 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

People really liked Aiyuk last year. He just fell because there were so many players to like. Taylor, CEH,Dobbins, Swift, Akers, Lamb, Jeudy, Higgins, shRuggs, Jefferson, Burrow, Reagor, Mims, Shenault, Gibson, Pittman. They couldn't all go 1st round. In the end, I think Aiyuk's ADP was 2.01. Against that level of the class, it's a valued landing spot. If Toney was in last year's class, I think he might end up in the 3rd round in ADP. If Aiyuk was in this class, he would be going around where Waddle is coming off the board. I don't think they are good comps. 

When I drafted last year in both drafts Aiyuk was falling to mid second same as Toney. I do agree last year draft was stacked so the fall made more sense  

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1 hour ago, jm192 said:

Ya'll keep this up and dudes in my league won't take him in the 1st round.  

I think his ADP is more like 2.06

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The Athletic's Dan Duggan reports Giants first-round WR Kadarius Toney "mostly lined up in the slot and ran shorter routes" during Phase 1 of minicamp.

Toney was reportedly "quicker than the other receivers," but that shouldn't come as too much of a surprise since the only other available wideouts were 2020 UDFA Derrick Dillon and tryout Nathan Rourke, a former college quarterback. Toney also had "a few drops" while running coverage-less routes and battling through footwear issues. Any involvement from the slot would likely take Sterling Shepard off the field in 11 personnel, but volume (especially in the form of concerted touches) would certainly help Toney 'get there' in year one at a discounted ADP in both dynasty and Best-Ball formats. OC Jason Garrett remains the biggest concern for everyone on offense.

SOURCE: The Athletic

May 16, 2021, 10:43 PM ET

 

 

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Giants coach Joe Judge said first-round WR Kadarius Toney will be used in multiple roles.

"There's going to be things you'll see that may look similar to what he did in college," said Judge. "We create enough versatility to play him in different spots but also we'll have to change our system like we do with everything." Toney was used on jet sweeps and screens at minicamp. The Giants are looking for ways to create plays for Toney, one of the draft's top playmakers. Toney could see snaps both outside and in the slot as a rookie.

SOURCE: ESPN

May 23, 2021, 12:20 PM ET

 

 

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I see a lot of potential here. I'm seeing this guy forecasted for the 2nd round in Dynasty? He's shifty as hell and the Giants are planning on putting him in the slot.

I see a lot of Jarvis Landry (but more explosive than shifty). I think the bias is just that, he's a slot receiver. He's not going to be playing outside and I think that's why people are so negative on his prospects. Sure, he's just a slot receiver but he's the best slot receiver in the whole draft class.

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I'm certainly no NFL scout,living in Central Florida there's a lot of UF football to watch. My 2 cents. He's fast,he's a YAC monster. He dropped some catchable passes. I believe the key to any success he has lies in the scheme. Can Garrett get creative? IF the offense stays healthy,Golladay will command double teams,Ross and Slayton will stretch the defense,Shepard will need attention on third down. There will be a lot of chances for one on ones with linebackers and nickel or dime D-backs. Toney can feast on them IF the scheme allows.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/15/2021 at 9:22 AM, need2know said:

Kinda dumb of the giants to get all these weapons but still don't have a qb

Perhaps, but we really don't know for sure yet: Jones has some skills.   The part that I find more absurd is that the OL isn't very good and adding Golladay and getting Barkley back are huge additions to the offense, but why not give all of the skill players a better chance to succeed by getting a better OL?  A draft that was known for OL and Gettlemen didn't draft a single one?  I was shocked and thrilled that Gettlemen trading down (he probably would have taken Toney if he didn't drop down) but Toney was not needed based on MANY other needs. Specific for Toney and fantasy, I think there are a lot of mouths to feed (even Rudolph around the end zone), Garrett, a QB who scrambles well and the question around how great a passer he is and a weak OL, I don't see a lot of points for Toney this year?  A lot has to go right even if Toney is what the Giants believe

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Posted (edited)
On 5/24/2021 at 5:52 PM, travdogg said:

He's 1.8 on my board. Think he'll have no issues blowing by Slayton and Shepard. Perfect compliment to Golladay.

I'm not there, but I dig the non-consensus stance here. 

I know it's been said upthread, but this discussion sounds a lot like the Aiyuk thread last year. I'm finding myself moving Toney up with the likes of Marshall and the Moores (but still definitely behind Marshall and E Moore for me).

 

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6 hours ago, Faust said:

Specifically, a pawn for your fantasy team.

In my worst case scenario, I will have to choose between Toney, Fields, or Gainwell at the 2.4 of my 1QB dynasty.   I feel like Fields should be the pick, but in a 1QB where I already have Allen and Hurts, I would really like to talk myself into Toney or Gainwell as an alternative.   Gainwell is the one I want, but I'm not sure I'm going to be ballsy enough to draft a 5th round backup RB over a 1st round WR.   Toney will only be useful on my roster if he can develop into a high-end WR2.   Does anybody think he can get there?   Seems like he's going to be a flex at best.

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On 5/24/2021 at 3:26 PM, dipandglide said:

Buying at current prices/sentiment

Screaming bargain.  

Plenty of red flags, but went at 2,04 and 2, 11 in two of my IDP leagues.  Went 3.04 in another, but people went LB crazy.

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11 hours ago, sushinsky4tsar said:

I'm not sure I'm going to be ballsy enough to draft a 5th round backup RB over a 1st round WR.  

Re-read this a few times before your second round pick it on the clock.

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5 hours ago, tombonneau said:

Re-read this a few times before your second round pick it on the clock.

Gainwell and Toney are a lot closer in rookie rankings than draft capital would suggest.  I also have to factor in being stacked at WR while having average depth at RB.   If Toney develops into a solid fantasy WR3 slot and gadget guy, it will do next to nothing for my roster.  I'm open to the idea that he could be more because high end WR2s will always have trade value, but nothing leads me to believe this is the Aiyuk of 2021.   

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13 minutes ago, sushinsky4tsar said:

Gainwell and Toney are a lot closer in rookie rankings than draft capital would suggest.  I also have to factor in being stacked at WR while having average depth at RB.   If Toney develops into a solid fantasy WR3 slot and gadget guy, it will do next to nothing for my roster.  I'm open to the idea that he could be more because high end WR2s will always have trade value, but nothing leads me to believe this is the Aiyuk of 2021.   

But if Gainwell is nothing but a backup up RB that never gets any meaningful time then he does worse than nothing for your roster.  Rookie picks are all about getting serviceable players.  A WR3 is a starter in most leagues which has value even if he is your WR5 based on your roster construction.  

 

I think too many people get caught up in this philosophy and end up hurting themselves in the long run.  Rookie draft should be take the BPA because hitting on the pick is the most important things since so few hit.  Don't force positional need on a lesser talent.  

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1 hour ago, Gally said:

Rookie picks are all about getting serviceable players.

My mindset is trying to hit home runs rounds 2 through 5 (at least in this year's mid/late round 2).   If you view Toney as a WR3 or WR4 on your team, then he's a fine option at 2.4.  Adds a dynamic talent that will build your depth.   If WR depth was a need, I would also be considering St. Brown as an option with less sizzle, but a better chance of seeing high volume right out of the gate.   I have a logjam of AJB, Godwin, Sutton, Julio, Higgins, OBJ at WR.   So with Toney, I'm getting a WR7 for my roster as a best case that has no chance of cracking my lineup.   Part of the reason for that logjam is that every team in a 12-team has a collection of low WR2s, WR3s, and WR4s that they can tell a story of how great they're going to be.   This is where I see Toney slotting in if he hits.  The trade offers to send out WRs in this range tend to be underwhelming.

On the flipside, Gainwell has a chance at a Nyheim Hines type role even with a healthy Sanders.  There's value in that.   As an upside play, let's throw a Golladay and Miles Sanders injury into the equation.    Toney gets an uptick, but I don't think his role changes all that much.   For Gainwell, he certainly doesn't become a workhorse RB, but he becomes very interesting in any PPR format.

Maybe Toney has it to be something more, but I think it would take some training camp buzz to get me interested.   Certainly, the same can be said about entertaining an early 5th round RB at that spot.   Lacking that, I probably look to Fields and move on.

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