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New York Jets 2011 Thread (1 Viewer)

Article on Eric Smith

When the NFL lockout officially ended, Darrelle Revis noticed several missed calls from a number that wasn’t stored in his cell phone.

The Pro Bowl cornerback quickly realized the caller was his head coach, Rex Ryan, asking him to hurry back to Florham Park so the 2011 Jets could begin to coalesce. When Revis reported to the Jets' facility, he sat down with Ryan, and some of the defensive coaches, who talked to him about their vision for the season.

As the free-agency negotiation period began, they wanted their core players’ input: How can this team get better? What players do we need to have in place?

“One of the visions was to start Eric Smith, and keep him in, and keep him comfortable,” Revis recalled. “I said, ‘Yeah, he should have been starting.’”

A few days later, the team re-signed Smith to a three-year deal as a starting safety, fastening in place a duo at the position — along with Jim Leonhard — known by their teammates to be intelligent, reliable and rarely prone to mental errors.

In last week’s preseason game against the Bengals, each had an interception before the first quarter ended — perhaps sending a message about what Smith, now a full-time starter, and Leonhard, healthy after his season-ending tibia fracture, can achieve while patrolling the middle of the field together.

Smith started 20 games over the past four years, but this preseason — including Monday night’s exhibition game against the Giants — he has finally carried the role of a designated starter. Because Smith is also a special-teams ace, the Jets spent last season mixing in him and Brodney Pool opposite Leonhard, until Leonhard’s injury in December.

This year the team agreed to pull Smith off one of his special-teams jobs, the center on kickoff returns, to keep him fresher and consistent in a starting role on defense. Though he did see his name in parentheses on special-teams coordinator Mike Westhoff’s depth chart — still listing him as an option there — so he wonders if that plan will last.

“The one good thing about the lockout, I felt like coming into camp, I was in the best shape of my life,” said Smith, who trained at alma mater Michigan State, in his native Ohio and at TEST Sports Club in Martinsville. “I had it in my head, ‘I’ve got to be prepared for (both roles).’ I feel like I can do it now, but after all the hitting and stuff during the season, it might start to take its toll.”

The Jets believe Smith can handle the workload, and want to take advantage of what he brings to the defense.

Last season, communication in the secondary was cited as a recurring issue, but Leonhard expects the interactions to be smoother with the same partner potentially next to him all season. Leonhard said each safety is able to take care of his side of the field, lessening the number of people he has to direct before the snap and allowing the secondary to make better adjustments.

According to Revis, there has yet to be a communication snag among the first-teamers in training camp.

Safeties have a critical role on the Jets, as opponents can be expected to look away from Revis and Antonio Cromartie on the outside, and to targets in the middle of the field. Last year, running backs and tight ends accounted for nearly one-third of the passing yards the Jets gave up.

Leonhard said the defense — including linebackers and substitute defensive backs such as Pool, Kyle Wilson and Dwight Lowery — feels more prepared to defend the middle after reviewing last season.

“Teams were throwing to tight ends, to backs, the other guys that were in man-to-man coverage,” Leonhard said. “We had Cromartie and Revis outside, so we wanted to play a lot of man. But I think we got ourselves in a little trouble at times by doing it too much, being too predictable, and that’s not when this defense is at its best. We have a huge playbook and when we use it all, we really create problems for an offense.”

During the playoffs in particular, the Jets accessed parts of the playbook that had not been emphasized during the season — namely, using more zone coverage against Indianapolis and New England, which led to victories. The change was a bit of a curveball for Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, and let the Jets better account for certain inside threats without double-covering them.

With an opening-day secondary expected to be composed entirely of players with experience in the system, the Jets see room for growth from last year’s sixth-ranked pass defense.

Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine said he has taken advantage of the daily morning walk-through to work on “graduate-level details” of how to play certain routes and formations. He expects to be more comfortable mixing in a greater percentage of the playbook to the game plan each week, avoiding tendencies based on down and distance.

“We have the ability that we can kind of morph into anything we want coverage-wise because of how experienced we are,” Pettine said. “The menu, the call sheet, really opens up just from who is in there.”

Smith, one of those pieces, said it “feels good” to be in a role he has worked for since 2006. In that time, he’s had to win over a new coaching staff, find a role in a new defense and prove that he can be a special-teams captain and starting safety.

Revis, who has watched Smith’s development, made sure to tell him early in camp, “Congratulations.”

“He knows a lot of us appreciate him,” Revis said. “Me and ‘Cro,’ we know that it’s like the weight of the world on us being out there on the islands, and we’re cool with that. But having those two back at the safety position helps us a lot; it helps us be the best passing defense we can be.”
 
Congrats to TJ Conley, the new starting punter for the NYJ! Now everytime they punt, I could pretend it's me pinning the ball inside the 2 yard line.

 
Here's a cool excerpt from Peter King's article in SI this week

It's silly to say a unit with cornerback Darrelle Revis and linebackers Bart Scott and David Harris doesn't have some of the league's best defenders. But the Jets also start guys who, like Scott, were undrafted (defensive end Mike DeVito, strong safety Jim Leonhard) and others who were bypassed atop the draft (free safety Eric Smith, nosetackle Sione Pouha). And if you play for the Jets, you'd better be football smart. Last January, as New York prepared for its playoff game with New England and a chance to avenge its 42-point December loss to the Patriots, the coaches were seeking ways to confound Tom Brady. Leonhard, who was on injured reserve with a fractured shin, approached coordinator Mike Pettine about turning a regular red zone coverage into something new. "What would happen," Leonhard said, "if we rushed three and kept our coverage [on New England's wideouts] the same but turned the inside guys into hook defenders?"

In the red zone for the Jets, the "hook" is the area between the hashmarks; Leonhard suggested that instead of one defender covering the tailback out of the backfield, make it two. Pettine liked the idea, and so did the head coach. "Brilliant," said Rex Ryan.

Late in the first quarter of a scoreless game, New England had third-and-five at the Jets' seven. The defense dialed up Leonhard's coverage. New York had three down linemen—with the versatile Shaun Ellis in the middle—and six cornerbacks. Harris and Smith, the linebacker and the safety, were the hook defenders, staying inside the hashes at about the two-yard line, in position to blanket Danny Woodhead out of the backfield. "Brady knows Woodhead can make that play when his receivers are covered," said Leonhard, "so the idea was to bracket him and force Brady to stay away."

Ryan, looking up at the play on the video screen in his office one day this summer, said, "New England wants to throw touchdown passes and checkdowns. So on this play we know what they want—a throw into the end zone, or they want to go to Woodhead out of the backfield." That's what happened. Brady looked for his receivers outside. Blanketed by the cornerbacks. Then he looked for Woodhead. Covered by Harris and Smith. Pumped once. Still covered. And Ellis buried him for a nine-yard sack. Four points saved: New England settled for a field goal.

Leonhard watched from his New Jersey home. "You can't really tell what the calls are all the time from TV," he said, "but when I went in the next day, all the coaches said, 'We got your call in. Great call.' It felt good. All employees want to be heard."

For the Jets, one lesson was: Don't think anyone is too good to be fooled. "Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are brilliant quarterbacks," said Leonhard, "but the biggest mistake teams make is giving those guys too much respect, like you can't trick 'em. You have to try."

You'd think that would be the end of the story. Leonhard outsmarts Brady and Belichick, Patriots embarrassed, as bad a loss for a New England team as Aaron Boone's homer off Tim Wakefield. But there's more.

Ellis has been a momentum-changer in the Jets-Pats rivalry. In the last three seasons he had five sacks against New England, unusually high for a nominal 3--4 defensive end. But he's much more than that. In the playoff game Ellis lined up 13 times as an end in the 3--4, 10 times as the nose in the 3--4, eight times as a tackle in a four-man line, once as an end in a 4--3 and, when the Jets went to a one- or two-man line, 10 snaps at various positions there. His two-sack, five-tackle performance last January in Foxborough, Pettine said, "was the best game in the two years I'd coached him." In short, Ellis did it all. He's the epitome of today's versatile defensive front man.

And in August he signed a one-year deal to play for the Patriots. He's going to the enemy. "The fact that he chose the Patriots," Ryan said when Ellis signed his free-agent deal, "there's no way I'm going to wish him well. There's no chance of that."

"I don't know what his trigger is," said Mangini, who coached Ellis with the Jets, "but I do know his best games were against New England. I'd bet that goes in reverse now—his best games will be against the Jets."

Said Pettine, "You know what his nickname was here? 'Patriot-killer.'"

Last week Ellis, who was working his way back from off-season hip surgery, was still getting used to life on the other side of the Iron Curtain. The Jets are Hard Knocks, the Patriots Pravda. "You feel the difference when you walk in the building," he said. "You feel the difference when you drive up to the building. It's strictly football here."

Yes, the Jets do it differently. They love the back pages, and Rex is bigger than life. But ideas are king, and they don't care where they come from.

"Juan and Renaldo are the custodians in our building," Pettine said. "And if they've got an idea how to get to the quarterback, we're all ears."
 
Here's my 2011 season preview:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=9248

What should we expect from the Jets this year? New York has appeared in the AFC Championship Game in each of the past two seasons, but two bad halves (second against Indianapolis, first against Pittsburgh) prevented the Jets from making the Super Bowl. Every year with Rex Ryan is a "Super Bowl or bust" type of season: do the Jets have what it takes to meet those expectations in 2011?

Vegas views the Jets as one of the league's contenders: with a projection of 10 wins, the Jets land in the top quarter of the league. The odds say New England is the favorite, with the Steelers slightly behind the Patriots, and the Jets, Chargers and Ravens just behind Pittsburgh to win the AFC. Those five teams are the class of the conference, now that there's a Peyton Manningless-Indianapolis.

Most observers put the Jets in that 3-5 range among the AFC's heavyweights. But a full preview of the 2011 Jets should start by taking a look at both the 2009 and 2010 editions.

2009 vs. 2010 Jets

The 2009 Jets shocked a lot of people by getting to the AFC Championship Game; after all, the Jets started the season 7-7. New York flipped the script in 2010, starting the year 9-2, the second best start in franchise history. But the records belie their reality: the 2009 Jets were a bit better than their 9-7 record while the 2010 Jets may not have been as good as their 11-5 mark.

Through 13 weeks of the 2009 season, my weekly predictor rating ranked the 6-6 Jets as the second best team in the AFC. The 2009 Jets, despite an unimpressive record, had a lot of strengths. They led the NFL in rushing yards and rushing first downs, while finishing one off the lead in rushing touchdowns. Defensively? They led the league in yards allowed, points allowed, first downs allowed and yards per play allowed. The pass defense? It was 1st in completion percentage, touchdown percentage, passing yards, yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt, quarterback rating, and loud coaches. Yes, the pass offense left a lot to be desired, but it wasn't hopeless. Mark Sanchez ranked 21st in net yards per pass attempt. Sure, the Jets were 9-7, but New York went 0-5 in games decided by five points or fewer, and all five of those losses came down to a single play late in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, the 2010 Jets seemed a bit lucky. After an incredibly demoralizing opening day defeat, the Jets won nine of their next ten games. Even when New York was 5-1, I legitimately wondered if the Jets were overrated. That was before the Jets would win four of their next five games by (1) coming from behind in the final minutes to beat the Broncos; (2) coming from behind to win in overtime against the Lions; (3) winning in overtime against the Browns; and (4) having a miraculous come-from-behind victory against the Texans. After shooting themselves in the foot in every close game in 2009, the Jets went 6-1 in one-score games in the first 13 weeks of the 2010 season. The passing offense improved last year, but the rushing game and the defense regressed.

In 2011, the Jets are hoping to get continued improvement from Sanchez in the passing game and a return by the defense to its 2009 form. That's a great formula for a Super Bowl championship, but is it likely to be achieved? Let's take a look at the not so insignificant roster turnover during the Rex Ryan era:
Rest of preview available here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=9248
 
Nice win tonight for Gang Green. Although Cro gave up 2 TDs, he didn't look particularly bad on either. Sanchez looked MUCH better, and made some excellent throws. The only real area of concern is the Offensive Line. That needs to improve, and quickly.

 
For any Jet fans (or anyone) who might be interested, I've started a Jets blog with all of my thoughts and observations. Check it out here

 
Nice win today for the Jets. Now heading out to Oakland. I think that the Jets match up pretty well w/ the Raiders because they generally stop the run quite well. My main concern is passes to DMC out of the backfield. And the Raiders awesome D-line just abusing the Jets OL. Should be a good game.

 
Jets are placing Cumberland and Turner on IR. Neither injury is devastating, but it's bad news. I had very high hopes for Cumberland, and this kills OL depth. Oh well, now they just need to focus on beating Baltimore.

 
Encouraging that Sanchez probably played his best regular season game as a pro - although it comes in a loss. The lack of being able to establish any consistent running attack is going to hurt this team though. Greene looked the best he has all season, but he's still not dynamic enough to make things happen on his own.

The Jets D was used and abused by McFadden, but I think it had more to do with McFadden just being in a zone than poor defense necessarily.

Real tough stretch coming up with two more road games in Baltimore and New England.

 
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I've said before that the Jets lack an identity on offense, and I think that's even clearer now. Until this team figures out what it wants to do, I'm not sure we can expect them to be anything other than "meh" on offense.

The game was just essentially over after Lechler boomed a 67-yard punt to pin the Jets at their own 7, down by 14, with under 9 mins to go.

The Jets had 10 drives at that point:

Four of them ended with the Jets gaining less than 20 yards and punting

One ended on one play, an awful Sanchez INT in the end zone

Two drives gained about 40 yards; one ended up a punt, another on downs

One drive was 10 plays for 51 yards, but settled for a FG from inside the 5-yard line

Two drives went for 70+ yards and a TD, although one of those "drives" was basically a 71-yard screen pass to LT

So 50% of the drives were bad. Two more were mediocre. Another drive highlighted the Jets' struggles in the red zone, as good teams don't kick 21 yard field goals.

The defense was awful on Sunday, but the offense wasn't much better.

 
The game was just essentially over after Lechler boomed a 67-yard punt to pin the Jets at their own 7, down by 14, with under 9 mins to go.
:confused: You mean right before the drive they took 90 yards for a score that brought them within a TD with 5:33 left? That doesn't make sense. The game was still very much in doubt at that point. It was the defenses inability to get off the field due to the Pace penalty and pass to Bush that sealed it.
The Jets had 10 drives at that point:Four of them ended with the Jets gaining less than 20 yards and puntingOne ended on one play, an awful Sanchez INT in the end zoneTwo drives gained about 40 yards; one ended up a punt, another on downsOne drive was 10 plays for 51 yards, but settled for a FG from inside the 5-yard lineTwo drives went for 70+ yards and a TD, although one of those "drives" was basically a 71-yard screen pass to LTSo 50% of the drives were bad. Two more were mediocre. Another drive highlighted the Jets' struggles in the red zone, as good teams don't kick 21 yard field goals.The defense was awful on Sunday, but the offense wasn't much better.
Yet they out gained the Raiders by 56 yards on the day and had 2 turnovers that led to a 14 point swing. The Sanchez INT in the endzone was pathetic and the Cromartie fumble was crippling. Those two plays plus the inability of the O-line to give Sanchez time in the 2nd half or open up any kind of holes for the inside running game were the keys to the loss. Secondarily was the Defense unable to contain McFadden or make key tackles on those successive 'trick' plays with the Raiders skill position speed. I hope Mangold is healthy soon because with Hunter playing so poorly the line is in bad enough shape. They need Mangold back securing the middle against Ngata and Wilfork or Sanchez might not last this road trip.
 
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The game was just essentially over after Lechler boomed a 67-yard punt to pin the Jets at their own 7, down by 14, with under 9 mins to go.
:confused: You mean right before the drive they took 90 yards for a score that brought them within a TD with 5:33 left? That doesn't make sense. The game was still very much in doubt at that point. It was the defenses inability to get off the field due to the Pace penalty and pass to Bush that sealed it.
The Jets had 10 drives at that point:Four of them ended with the Jets gaining less than 20 yards and puntingOne ended on one play, an awful Sanchez INT in the end zoneTwo drives gained about 40 yards; one ended up a punt, another on downsOne drive was 10 plays for 51 yards, but settled for a FG from inside the 5-yard lineTwo drives went for 70+ yards and a TD, although one of those "drives" was basically a 71-yard screen pass to LTSo 50% of the drives were bad. Two more were mediocre. Another drive highlighted the Jets' struggles in the red zone, as good teams don't kick 21 yard field goals.The defense was awful on Sunday, but the offense wasn't much better.
Yet they out gained the Raiders by 56 yards on the day and had 2 turnovers that led to a 14 point swing. The Sanchez INT in the endzone was pathetic and the Cromartie fumble was crippling. Those two plays plus the inability of the O-line to give Sanchez time in the 2nd half or open up any kind of holes for the inside running game were the keys to the loss. Secondarily was the Defense unable to contain McFadden or make key tackles on those successive 'trick' plays with the Raiders skill position speed. I hope Mangold is healthy soon because with Hunter playing so poorly the line is in bad enough shape. They need Mangold back securing the middle against Ngata and Wilfork or Sanchez might not last this road trip.
http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.phpDown 14, on your own 7, under 9 mins to go = 2% win probability.The Raiders played soft defensively the rest of the game, allowing the Jets to chew up yards and pad the stats.The game was lost in about three minutes. After Sanchez passed to Green for five yards, the Jets had 3rd and 2 at the Raiders 37 with 3 mins left in the third quarter. At that point, the Jets had a 57% win probability.From there, we have: Sanchez incomplete to Keller; Sanchez incomplete to Burress, TOD. Campbell incomplete. Campbell to Hagan for 13. McFadden for 27. Moore for 23, TD. Cromartie fumble. McFadden for 12. Bush TD.At that point, the win probability dropped to 5%.
 
'Chase Stuart said:
'Crash Davis said:
'Chase Stuart said:
The game was just essentially over after Lechler boomed a 67-yard punt to pin the Jets at their own 7, down by 14, with under 9 mins to go.
:confused: You mean right before the drive they took 90 yards for a score that brought them within a TD with 5:33 left? That doesn't make sense. The game was still very much in doubt at that point. It was the defenses inability to get off the field due to the Pace penalty and pass to Bush that sealed it.

The Jets had 10 drives at that point:

Four of them ended with the Jets gaining less than 20 yards and punting

One ended on one play, an awful Sanchez INT in the end zone

Two drives gained about 40 yards; one ended up a punt, another on downs

One drive was 10 plays for 51 yards, but settled for a FG from inside the 5-yard line

Two drives went for 70+ yards and a TD, although one of those "drives" was basically a 71-yard screen pass to LT

So 50% of the drives were bad. Two more were mediocre. Another drive highlighted the Jets' struggles in the red zone, as good teams don't kick 21 yard field goals.

The defense was awful on Sunday, but the offense wasn't much better.
Yet they out gained the Raiders by 56 yards on the day and had 2 turnovers that led to a 14 point swing. The Sanchez INT in the endzone was pathetic and the Cromartie fumble was crippling. Those two plays plus the inability of the O-line to give Sanchez time in the 2nd half or open up any kind of holes for the inside running game were the keys to the loss. Secondarily was the Defense unable to contain McFadden or make key tackles on those successive 'trick' plays with the Raiders skill position speed. I hope Mangold is healthy soon because with Hunter playing so poorly the line is in bad enough shape. They need Mangold back securing the middle against Ngata and Wilfork or Sanchez might not last this road trip.
http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.phpDown 14, on your own 7, under 9 mins to go = 2% win probability.

The Raiders played soft defensively the rest of the game, allowing the Jets to chew up yards and pad the stats.

The game was lost in about three minutes. After Sanchez passed to Green for five yards, the Jets had 3rd and 2 at the Raiders 37 with 3 mins left in the third quarter. At that point, the Jets had a 57% win probability.

From there, we have: Sanchez incomplete to Keller; Sanchez incomplete to Burress, TOD. Campbell incomplete. Campbell to Hagan for 13. McFadden for 27. Moore for 23, TD. Cromartie fumble. McFadden for 12. Bush TD.

At that point, the win probability dropped to 5%.
Redo the calculator after they actually score and their chances have gotten more than 4 times better. Add in that the calculator doesn't take into account the strength of the defense or offense, or the play calling tendencies of either coaching staff and it's anecdotal at best. Down by 7 with what your head coach likes to think of as the best defense in the league you should expect there is a decent chance that they get the ball back with a chance to tie. The defense couldn't get that done. We're picking nits, but as a Jets fan I didn't think they were done until Bush got the Raiders into scoring position. Prior to that I had some faith as they pulled off games that looked worse at points last year and even in week 1. BTW, the win probability down 14 at 14:50 in the 4th quater of the Dallas game with the ball on their own 16 was 4%.
 
UPDATE: ###### ###### #########!!!!!!

Everything else aside - Man, the Defense Blows.

I expected a defense that was real good the past two years while dealing with injured players now having pieces back and players in the same system for the 3rd year. I expected a defense that was ready to take it to another level. I expected a stiffling defense that won games on their own and could not be run on and definitely not passed on with the Secondary all together.....

This defense is completely vulnerable to just about anything.

And Sanchez' play is downright scary.

IMO, it would take a miracle for this team to sniff the playoffs.

Beating an 0-4 team was one thing, I fear for how bad it could be playing anyone else.

And IMO, Miami gets a new coach, possibly Luck and is an immediate contender next year.

Not feeling good as a Jets fan right now at all..

I stopped drinking beer in the 2nd quarter last night and I wound up drinking my kids juice box instead. Just HORRIBLE FOOTBALL.

 
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Yup, last night was just more evidence that this team isn't going anywhere.

If it weren't for a questionable PI non-call (first couple times I thought Marshall just ran into Revis, but after more viewings, I think we got away with one) that game is 10-0 early and just about over based on how the offense was playing.

- Schotty's play calling continues to be terrible

- Burress is dis-interested and physically nearly finished

- Greene is still a mediocre runner

- Cromartie is dog ####

Sanchez continues to be sanchez. Makes some amazing instinctual plays with his feet, but botches some of the easiest throws and still makes poor decisions all the time.

I want to say the O-line played better, but i think it was more a case of Miami's D being demoralized than the Jets imposing their will on them.

IMO, we're looking at 9-7 or 8-8.

 
One thing I noticed about this defense...

They are Highly dependent upon the Refs. There was a thread around here that rated Refs that people thought was a joke. But, I'd kind of like to see what Ref Crews "Let the players Play" and keep the flag in their pocket...

If the Jets get a crew that allows contact down the field then IMO they are in good shape otherwise I expect the flag fest we have seen.

The few games before this one the Refs did not let them get away with much.

I believe One week, maybe week 2 Cromartie was Defensive Player of the week... the following week he was called for Interference a bunch of times and people were saying he sucked - Meanwhile, it was the same player playing the same game - Only the Refs Changed.

Lets pray the Jets get Refs that let them get away with #### for the rest for the season.

:yucky:

 
Think you're being a little harsh on the D. It was inconsistent last night, but look at the big picture.

The defense scored more points than it allowed. It forced three turnovers. It had four sacks. It allowed just 2 conversions on 13 third down attempts, and now ranks #1 in the league in third down defense.

 
'Chase Stuart said:
Think you're being a little harsh on the D. It was inconsistent last night, but look at the big picture.The defense scored more points than it allowed. It forced three turnovers. It had four sacks. It allowed just 2 conversions on 13 third down attempts, and now ranks #1 in the league in third down defense.
Against Matt Moore.And I shut it down with about 5 minutes left so, apparently I missed an INT and 2 Sacks of garbage time....Jets could have been down a ton early before they even got a 1st down but, the refs were gracious and Matt Moore or someone decided to pick on Revis. meanwhile as Gruden said, players were running open.Just by a simple eye test that was far from a top defensive team I was watching.Just not the defense I expected so far this season... Maybe if they come away with similar stats Vs Rivers, they could be on their way?
 
That was a very big win for the Jets. It was the first time this year that the offense has started to resemble the offense of the past two years where they could actually move the ball on the ground and set up play-action. Sanchez still makes some maddening throws where he forces the ball to covered receivers, but I'm hoping that the Jets realize that Plax becomes almost an exclusive red zone weapon.

On defense, I've been pleasantly surprised with Maybin. I still think he's bad and he has no pass rush moves and he tries really hard and his hustle can get him a few sacks. I've been thrilled with Kyle Wilson who I now think is better than Cromartie. Wilson has been nothing short of awesome. And of course, #24 is basically playing at a video-game level which certainly helps cover up a lot of the defense's issues.

 
I just read that QBs have a 2.2 QB rating when throwing at Revis, and he has more INT return yards then reception yards allowed.

 
Huge game coming up in Buffalo. The Jets haven't won on the road yet this season, but they match up very well against Buffalo. The Bills aren't great against the run, and Kyle Williams is out. In the 4 games Rex has coached against the Bills, the Jets have averaged 279 yards on the ground :eek: I think Revis shuts down Johnson, and if Sanchez can limit his turnovers (a challenge against this year's Bills) the Jets should win.

 
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Jets fans, is Stevie Johnson going to be the only one stuck on Revis island or does Rexy move Revis around to other wideouts? I'm torn on who to start at WR3 and I was thinking Nelson might be a good choice since Revis would probably blanket Johnson most of the game. Thoughts?

 
Jets fans, is Stevie Johnson going to be the only one stuck on Revis island or does Rexy move Revis around to other wideouts? I'm torn on who to start at WR3 and I was thinking Nelson might be a good choice since Revis would probably blanket Johnson most of the game. Thoughts?
Well, Revis probably sticks with Johnson, but that would still leave Nelson with either Cro or Wilson, who are both very good players. It depends on which version of Cro shows up I guess. But, I have Johnson and I'm starting him and I have no confidence in that decision.
 
It is absolutely critical that the Jets win one of these next two games if they want to have a shot at the playoffs. If they want to win the East they need to win both.

As for the matchup, I think the Jet's secondary can slow down the spread passing game of the Bills, they have the corners to do it, especially with Wilson playing well. My biggest concern is how they can stop Fred Jackson if both Ellis and Devito can't play. I won't lie and say i've seen a ton of Fred this year, but my perception is that he is a between the tackles runner and not an outside/edge speedster. The Jets are actually pretty good stopping those kinds of run plays, where they have been gashed for long gains are speedy guys who attack the edge. I'd actually almost be more concerned about some plays with Spiller designed to exploit that, assuming Devito and/or Ellis suit up of course. If not all bets are off.

On offense Sanchez needs to keep up his solid play. Yes, I said that, Sanchez is playing well. I know you can't take away a game, though i'm sure every Jet fan and player would agree that if you could the Baltimore game would be nice to make disappear. So without saying "If you take away the Baltimore game..." let's just focus on how well Sanchez has played in the rest of the games, with his All-Pro center and not facing a relentless defense that smelled blood of a wounded o-line without its heart and soul.

In those 6 other games Sanchez has some pretty solid numbers: 118/196 1426 yds 12/5 TD/INT for a 60.2 comp % and a 92.34 passer rating.

Is he Rodgers, Brady, Brees, or even Stafford this year? No, of course not, but he's a far cry from "the worst QB in the NFL" or "Not an NFL caliber QB" as the haters love to say. He had one atrocious game this year and you can't just forget that, but he has played very well in the games before and since. If he can continue to limit turnovers and the running game can continue to make strides I feel good about being able to come away with a huge win this weekend.

 
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Pittsburgh and Baltimore are making the playoffs. Both teams are going to get at least 11 wins, and probably 12 or 13. Their schedules down the stretch are not that difficult. New England is going to win 12 or 13 games, too, and the AFC East.

That means the Jets are realistically shooting for one thing, the #6 seed and a road trip to Houston for the first round of the playoffs.

Ten wins might not make the playoffs; the Jets will lose a tiebreaker to Oakland and perhaps to Buffalo. 11 wins is what will be needed to be safe, 10 and you're rolling the dice.

For the Jets to get 11 wins, they need:

2 out of 3 against @Buffalo, NE and Buffalo

2 out of 3 against @Philadelphia, NYG and KC

A sweep against @Denver, @Miami, @Washington

Those three events are all doable, but none of them are easy. The Jets dug themselves a hole, and the Raiders' loss especially could come back to haunt them. That said, if the Jets want to be considered a great team, well, a great team team would go 7-2 against this stretch.

It starts this weekend, although it's not do-or-die. Losing in Buffalo would stink, but they can still take care of business at home against the division and be on track. The Jets can lose at Philly and at Buffalo, and they're okay. What they need to do then, though, is take care of business at home (8-0) and sweep three bad teams on the road.

 
Pittsburgh and Baltimore are making the playoffs. Both teams are going to get at least 11 wins, and probably 12 or 13. Their schedules down the stretch are not that difficult. New England is going to win 12 or 13 games, too, and the AFC East.That means the Jets are realistically shooting for one thing, the #6 seed and a road trip to Houston for the first round of the playoffs.Ten wins might not make the playoffs; the Jets will lose a tiebreaker to Oakland and perhaps to Buffalo. 11 wins is what will be needed to be safe, 10 and you're rolling the dice.For the Jets to get 11 wins, they need:2 out of 3 against @Buffalo, NE and Buffalo2 out of 3 against @Philadelphia, NYG and KCA sweep against @Denver, @Miami, @WashingtonThose three events are all doable, but none of them are easy. The Jets dug themselves a hole, and the Raiders' loss especially could come back to haunt them. That said, if the Jets want to be considered a great team, well, a great team team would go 7-2 against this stretch. It starts this weekend, although it's not do-or-die. Losing in Buffalo would stink, but they can still take care of business at home against the division and be on track. The Jets can lose at Philly and at Buffalo, and they're okay. What they need to do then, though, is take care of business at home (8-0) and sweep three bad teams on the road.
Chase, you don't think the Jets can win the division? I'm absolutely not ruling that out, although this week is key. If the Jets win their next two games, they are in first place in the division and control their own destiny. The Pats are obviously still a very good team, but I don't think they have the same aura of invincibility they've had in the past (especially in regards to winning their division).
 
I can't seen NE winning 13 games. 12 seems like a stretch to me too. The book is out on them I think: jam the crap out of the WR/TE at the line and go after Brady. They have no real running game and absolutely no deep threat. Their defensive woes need no discussion.

 
I want to say I disagree with Chase, but to do it the Jets will need to sweep the remaining division games and get help from the NFC East IMO. Looking at NE's remaining schedule the potential losses just don't jump out at you once you get past the divisional games with the Jets and Bills.

NYG, @NYJ, KC, @Phi, IND, @WAS, @Den, MIA, BUF

I just don't see them losing games to KC, Indy, Denver, Washington, or Miami. That means they are at worst 10-6. You have to rely on them losing to both the Giants and the Eagles for a division rival to have a realistic shot of overtaking them IMO. If they get beat by the Giants this week and the Jets beat Buffalo then maybe i'll change my outlook. Right now I have to agree with Chase that the most realistic road to the playoffs for the Jets is once again as a wild card. the loss in Oakland was really a killer.

 
Pittsburgh and Baltimore are making the playoffs. Both teams are going to get at least 11 wins, and probably 12 or 13. Their schedules down the stretch are not that difficult. New England is going to win 12 or 13 games, too, and the AFC East.That means the Jets are realistically shooting for one thing, the #6 seed and a road trip to Houston for the first round of the playoffs.Ten wins might not make the playoffs; the Jets will lose a tiebreaker to Oakland and perhaps to Buffalo. 11 wins is what will be needed to be safe, 10 and you're rolling the dice.For the Jets to get 11 wins, they need:2 out of 3 against @Buffalo, NE and Buffalo2 out of 3 against @Philadelphia, NYG and KCA sweep against @Denver, @Miami, @WashingtonThose three events are all doable, but none of them are easy. The Jets dug themselves a hole, and the Raiders' loss especially could come back to haunt them. That said, if the Jets want to be considered a great team, well, a great team team would go 7-2 against this stretch. It starts this weekend, although it's not do-or-die. Losing in Buffalo would stink, but they can still take care of business at home against the division and be on track. The Jets can lose at Philly and at Buffalo, and they're okay. What they need to do then, though, is take care of business at home (8-0) and sweep three bad teams on the road.
Chase, you don't think the Jets can win the division? I'm absolutely not ruling that out, although this week is key. If the Jets win their next two games, they are in first place in the division and control their own destiny. The Pats are obviously still a very good team, but I don't think they have the same aura of invincibility they've had in the past (especially in regards to winning their division).
If the Jets sweep Buffalo and NE loses to the Jets and Buffalo, then... maybe, if things break correctly, the Jets can beat NE.But realistically, NE's schedule is too easy to give them more than 2 losses the rest of the way, IMO.
 
Excellent win today by Gang Green. Jets offense was beyond awful in the first half but the defense was great. It's nice to see the OL playing better, and except for Sanchez's two awful plays, his accuracy was very good and his play-action was very effective. Next week's game against NE, with first place on the line, is huge.

 
I want to say I disagree with Chase, but to do it the Jets will need to sweep the remaining division games and get help from the NFC East IMO. Looking at NE's remaining schedule the potential losses just don't jump out at you once you get past the divisional games with the Jets and Bills.

NYG, @NYJ, KC, @Phi, IND, @WAS, @Den, MIA, BUF

I just don't see them losing games to KC, Indy, Denver, Washington, or Miami. That means they are at worst 10-6. You have to rely on them losing to both the Giants and the Eagles for a division rival to have a realistic shot of overtaking them IMO. If they get beat by the Giants this week and the Jets beat Buffalo then maybe i'll change my outlook. Right now I have to agree with Chase that the most realistic road to the playoffs for the Jets is once again as a wild card. the loss in Oakland was really a killer.
:popcorn:
 
'njherdfan said:
Excellent win today by Gang Green. Jets offense was beyond awful in the first half but the defense was great. It's nice to see the OL playing better, and except for Sanchez's two awful plays, his accuracy was very good and his play-action was very effective. Next week's game against NE, with first place on the line, is huge.
WHOA.... Did you watch the Ravens game?That offense in the 1st half yesterday wasn't that aweful at all, it dominated TOP keeping one of the higher scoring offenses in the league on the sideline while our D rested and was able to do what it did later on....I'll take that same 1st half next week, yeah, hopefully without the INT :popcorn:They just couldn't punch it in.... Keller's circus act hurt them a bunch IMO since they committed penalties after that and lost him for a while.
 
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I want to say I disagree with Chase, but to do it the Jets will need to sweep the remaining division games and get help from the NFC East IMO. Looking at NE's remaining schedule the potential losses just don't jump out at you once you get past the divisional games with the Jets and Bills.

NYG, @NYJ, KC, @Phi, IND, @WAS, @Den, MIA, BUF

I just don't see them losing games to KC, Indy, Denver, Washington, or Miami. That means they are at worst 10-6. You have to rely on them losing to both the Giants and the Eagles for a division rival to have a realistic shot of overtaking them IMO. If they get beat by the Giants this week and the Jets beat Buffalo then maybe i'll change my outlook. Right now I have to agree with Chase that the most realistic road to the playoffs for the Jets is once again as a wild card. the loss in Oakland was really a killer.
:popcorn:
Things do look a little better. Although best case scenario now may just be the 3 seed and hosting the Pats in the first round. :thumbdown:
 
Football Outsiders has the Jets as the best team in the NFL. :popcorn: Granted, I don't think that's the case, but I do think the Jets are starting to keep up. Of course, that all goes up in smoke without a good performance this weekend.
 
Thinking about starting NYJ DEF this week vs Pats. What are your thoughts on that.
It's a risky move, and depends on whetehr you think the Pats' offensive struggles the past two weeks are a fluke or teh start of a trend. As a Jets fan I'm a natural pessimist so I'd probably avoid the Jets D in this game if there are any other viable options.
 
Pittsburgh and Baltimore are making the playoffs. Both teams are going to get at least 11 wins, and probably 12 or 13. Their schedules down the stretch are not that difficult. New England is going to win 12 or 13 games, too, and the AFC East.That means the Jets are realistically shooting for one thing, the #6 seed and a road trip to Houston for the first round of the playoffs.Ten wins might not make the playoffs; the Jets will lose a tiebreaker to Oakland and perhaps to Buffalo. 11 wins is what will be needed to be safe, 10 and you're rolling the dice.For the Jets to get 11 wins, they need:2 out of 3 against @Buffalo, NE and Buffalo2 out of 3 against @Philadelphia, NYG and KCA sweep against @Denver, @Miami, @WashingtonThose three events are all doable, but none of them are easy. The Jets dug themselves a hole, and the Raiders' loss especially could come back to haunt them. That said, if the Jets want to be considered a great team, well, a great team team would go 7-2 against this stretch. It starts this weekend, although it's not do-or-die. Losing in Buffalo would stink, but they can still take care of business at home against the division and be on track. The Jets can lose at Philly and at Buffalo, and they're okay. What they need to do then, though, is take care of business at home (8-0) and sweep three bad teams on the road.
A little has changed here, but not much.For one, the AFC West is not getting a wildcard, so the Jets can now ignore Oakland. If Oakland does end up with the same record as the Jets, it means they won their division. San Diego is bad and has a tough schedule, and KC/Den.... well, exactly.Pitt/Balt/NWE are all getting their 11-13 wins. They all have joke schedules from here on out.Buffalo seems to have regressed significantly. While I'm not ready to say their O is done, their D is toast. Can't stop the run, can't stop the pass. Obviously if the Jets lose to the Bills, this changes, but now I feel pretty confident that the Jets will take out Buffalo. That would give them a 1.5 game lead with 5 to play, while being the better team and having an easier schedule. To me, it's now between the Jets and the Bengals. The Jets are lucky that Washington and KC have absolutely fallen apart. Hopefully they look as terrible in a few weeks as they do now. Blah blah blah Tebow, but I really think the Jets win that game with ease. Von Miller is about a zillion times better than Tebow, and he's the big worry especially after Ferguson laid a huge egg.The Jets will need the Steelers and Ravens to knock down the Bengals. Cincinnati's game against Houston just got a lot easier, although losing Hall hurts.Too early to tell how the tiebreakers will unfold between the Jets/Bengals, but Cin is at least 1 game up.NYJ: @Den, Buf, @Was, KC, @Phi, NYG, @MiaCin: @Bal, Cle, @Pit, Hou, @Stl, Ari, BalOn the bright side for the Jets, the Ravens loss and the Steelers win this weekend decreased the likelihood that the week 17 game is meaningless for the Bengals.Cincinnati will probably win 2-3 games against Cle-Hou-Ari and 1-2 games against Bal, Pit, Hou, Bal. Let's settle on 4 more wins, which gives them a 10-6 record.To avoid tiebreaker hell, the Jets will need 11 wins, which means only one more loss. A tall order, but there's really only one very difficult game left (NYG). A split against Buf/Phi is probably likely, but that would mean the Jets will need to beat the Giants to get to 11 wins. And, of course, no slip ups allowed against Den, Was, KC or Mia. A Vick injury could help the Jets as much as the Schaub injury helps the Bengals. As it is, the Jets will get Tebow, Palko, Grossbeck and whoever Miami trots out there for the finale.
 
Question out of left field:

I've heard that hardcore Jets fans consider Fireman Ed to be a punchline rather than "one of us." True?

 
I can still barely talk about Thursday night's game, what a gut punch. That said, as disastrous as it was, the Sunday games helped ease me back off the ledge a few centimeters. Ten, Cin, SD, and Buf all losing was about as good as you could have hoped for as a Jets fan yesterday. Obviously the Jets have to start playing a LOT better for it to even matter, but the fact that the majority of the teams they will be fighting for a playoff spot with also lost means they have a better chance to make a run. Cincy is tougher than I have been giving them credit for though, the Jets better hope Pit and Bal take care of business against them. They also better come to play and kick the #### out of Buffalo next week.

 
I can still barely talk about Thursday night's game, what a gut punch. That said, as disastrous as it was, the Sunday games helped ease me back off the ledge a few centimeters. Ten, Cin, SD, and Buf all losing was about as good as you could have hoped for as a Jets fan yesterday. Obviously the Jets have to start playing a LOT better for it to even matter, but the fact that the majority of the teams they will be fighting for a playoff spot with also lost means they have a better chance to make a run. Cincy is tougher than I have been giving them credit for though, the Jets better hope Pit and Bal take care of business against them. They also better come to play and kick the #### out of Buffalo next week.
That game might have been the most painful loss I've experienced as a Jets fan, and that's saying something. Lost in all the furor of how bad Mark Sanchez is, is the fact that the Jets are still very well positioned to make the playoffs. They have a joke schedule for the next 3 weeks (BUF, @WAS, KC) and I do think the Jets will end up with a better record than Cinci. I actually see these 2 games as very similar to last year's 2 game stretch when they got demolished by NE and then laid a total egg against Miami at home, but then bounced back to beat Pittsburgh and rebounded to make the playoffs. I'm hopeful that the Jets will now go with an offense that really just emphasizes running the ball and play-action, which is really all that Sanchez can do well. I also agree that the Jets need to come out this week and absolutely dominate a reeling Bills team.
 
It looks like Buffalo is fading fast, which basically means it's a two-team race between the Jets and Bengals. Cincinnati currently has a one-game lead:

NYJ: Buf, @Was, KC, @Phi, NYG, @Mia

Cin: Cle, @Pit, Hou, @Stl, Ari, Bal

Basically, the Jets need to hope Pit/Bal complete a sweep of Cincinnati and the Jets split Phi/NYG. If Cincy loses to Houston, great, the Jets are in if they run the table in the other four.

If the Jets split with NYG/Phi and beat Was, they'll be 3-1 in the NFC. Cincinnati lost to SF but will presumably beat STL/ARI to also go 3-1 in the NFC. In that case, common opponents will be the tiebreaker.

Both teams lost to Denver and beat Jacksonville. The Jets would be 2-0 against Buf, Cincy would be 1-0. But if Cincy gets swept by the Ravens, the Jets would look better after going "just" 0-1 against them.

So in common games, the Jets would be 3-2 and the Bengals 2-3. The Jets need to beat Buffalo and the Bengals to lose to Baltimore for the Jets to own the tiebreaker (assuming the teams end up with the same NFC record).

 
It looks like Buffalo is fading fast, which basically means it's a two-team race between the Jets and Bengals. Cincinnati currently has a one-game lead.
You could just as easily say it looks like the Jets are fading fast, which basically means its a two-team race between the Bills and Bengals. Both the Bills and Jets are 5-5.
 

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