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You make a good point but I think most consider Richardson top 3 and not top 10 so while trying to force a top 10 into the top 11 is kind of silly trying to force a top 3 really is justified. With that said I wouldn't be too shocked to see him land around 15/16 purely because of the trend of a passing league. My gut says he ends up in the top 10 with a good chance of 4 or 5.
I probably can't do this justice without spending more time than I have on it but, in a pinch and without mentioning Brett favre:Notable 1st round picks by the Vikings:Can you give me some examples?'Shutout said:So, how many people are we going to have to put on suicide watch when one of these scenarios play out?
-He slips past the top 5 and the Chiefs grab him?
-The Bears let Forte walk and draft him.
-THE UNTHINKABLE (but who knows...they have done sillier), the Vikings get out from under ADP all together and just draft him. Sounds crazy, yes. BUT, if Richardson is "the next ADP"...."rare guy", like so many people say, then why don't they just do like the Colts and replace the man with the twin man?
Maybe the Vikes should just have sat still a few years ago and drafted Ben Tate...would've solved their porblems and prevented about 100 Tate Vs. Foster threads last year.
Personally I don't think Richardson is going to be the next coming (can't be the 2nd coming because people already gave that away to Ingram last year).
Agreed. People are over-reacting to a one year "trend". Teams do still value RBs no matter how many times it's stated on a message board they no longer do. If we want to look all the way back to 2010, 3 RBs went in Round 1 (including 1 in the Top 10 and also the aforementioned trade up to 12 by SD). In 2009, 3 RBs also went in the first round and in 2008, 4 RBs went in round 1 (including 1 in the Top 4). We're not talking ancient history here. If a team thinks Richardson is a top 10 talent, he'll go in the top 10. Last year was a weak RB class and if Ingram wasn't rumored to have knee issue he may have gone higher in the draft.
He actually had a 1,300-yard season and went to the Pro Bowl, I believe.I probably can't do this justice without spending more time than I have on it but, in a pinch and without mentioning Brett favre:Notable 1st round picks by the Vikings:Can you give me some examples?'Shutout said:So, how many people are we going to have to put on suicide watch when one of these scenarios play out?
-He slips past the top 5 and the Chiefs grab him?
-The Bears let Forte walk and draft him.
-THE UNTHINKABLE (but who knows...they have done sillier), the Vikings get out from under ADP all together and just draft him. Sounds crazy, yes. BUT, if Richardson is "the next ADP"...."rare guy", like so many people say, then why don't they just do like the Colts and replace the man with the twin man?
Maybe the Vikes should just have sat still a few years ago and drafted Ben Tate...would've solved their porblems and prevented about 100 Tate Vs. Foster threads last year.
Personally I don't think Richardson is going to be the next coming (can't be the 2nd coming because people already gave that away to Ingram last year).
Michael Bennett (RB)-One year of 700 yards
This isn't a one year trend.
I knew you would bring out examples from ancient history. Every team has had misses. Speilman record is not great but it is better than most. I guess you don't care that the Vikings have drafted two offensive rookie of the year recently. Trading up to get Gerhart over Ben Tate is hardly a crime especially since Tate has spent a year on IR. I wouldn't be surprised if Gerhart out produced Tate if he was running behind the same quality of Oline.I probably can't do this justice without spending more time than I have on it but, in a pinch and without mentioning Brett favre:Notable 1st round picks by the Vikings:Can you give me some examples?'Shutout said:So, how many people are we going to have to put on suicide watch when one of these scenarios play out?
-He slips past the top 5 and the Chiefs grab him?
-The Bears let Forte walk and draft him.
-THE UNTHINKABLE (but who knows...they have done sillier), the Vikings get out from under ADP all together and just draft him. Sounds crazy, yes. BUT, if Richardson is "the next ADP"...."rare guy", like so many people say, then why don't they just do like the Colts and replace the man with the twin man?
Maybe the Vikes should just have sat still a few years ago and drafted Ben Tate...would've solved their porblems and prevented about 100 Tate Vs. Foster threads last year.
Personally I don't think Richardson is going to be the next coming (can't be the 2nd coming because people already gave that away to Ingram last year).
Leo Hayden (RB)-never played a down for them.
Michael Bennett (RB)-One year of 700 yards
Troy williamson (Wr)
Erasmus James (WR) took them both in the 1st the same year. Not much out of them
Dimitrius Underwood- I think he got released before ever playing for them.
I'm sure there are more but these are all first rounders.
Trading to get randy Moss the second time around didn't work out well
traded two picks to move up to get Toby. Could have easily sat back and "settled" for Ben tate.
tarvaris Jackson?
Would not be complete to mentione THE GREAT TRAIN ROBBERY:
Minnesota Vikings received
RB Herschel Walker
Dallas's 3rd round pick - 1990 (54) (Mike Jones)
San Diego's 5th round pick - 1990 (116) (Reggie Thornton)
Dallas's 10th round pick - 1990 (249) (Pat Newman)
Dallas's 3rd round pick - 1991 (68) (Jake Reed)
Dallas Cowboys received
LB Jesse Solomon
LB David Howard
CB Issiac Holt
RB Darrin Nelson (traded to San Diego after he refused to report to Dallas)
DE Alex Stewart
Minnesota's 1st round pick in 1990 (21) (traded this pick along with pick (81) for pick (17) from Pittsburgh to draft Emmitt Smith)
Minnesota's 2nd round pick in 1990 (47) (Alexander Wright)
Minnesota's 6th round pick in 1990 (158) (traded to New Orleans, who drafted James Williams)
Minnesota's 1st round pick in 1991 (conditional) - (12) (Alvin Harper)
Minnesota's 2nd round pick in 1991 (conditional) - (38) (Dixon Edwards)
Minnesota's 2nd round pick in 1992 (conditional) - (37) (Darren Woodson)
Minnesota's 3rd round pick in 1992 (conditional) - (71) (traded to New England, who drafted Kevin Turner)
Minnesota's 1st round pick in 1993 (conditional) - (13) (traded to Philadelphia Eagles, and then to the Houston Oilers, who drafted Brad Hopkins)[1]
When I look at the Vikings history of drafting and trading, I'm just willing to say it wouldn't surprise me with just baout anything they do.
This is a Redskins-focused chart and it only shows the top picks of mocks, so it will show how many have Cincy taking Richardson. http://dcprosportsreport.com/MockDraft.htm
I'll preface this by saying that I simply don't see the Vikings grabbing Richardson at #3. However, it's not criminally insane to consider IMO, but only if the Vikings view Richardson as head and shoulders above the other options available when they are on the clock. While Peterson is the face of the Vikings, he's also coming off of a devastating knee injury, earning $10MM+ per year and may be 28 by the time he's fully recovered, if he recovers fully. I think the Vikings have too many other holes to kick Peterson to the curb for the younger Richardson, so I think there's less than a 1% chance this happens. But if Richardson grades out as near Peterson's equal, Kalil is taken at #2, and the Vikings can't get a good deal to trade out of the #3 for someone that wants RG3 (and don't want him themselves), then you have to at least take a look at Richardson don't you if he grades that highly? If not, then you're taking whom? The second best tackle? Another QB? Claiborne? Blackmon? None of those options seem to be slam dunks. So I don't think it's crazy that Richardson enters the conversation if he grades out as elite. I'll end this by emphasizing my sentiment expressed in the first sentence.
Well, at least according to the draft sites I visit, Claiborne should be the pick in the above scenario. I actually hope that if the Vikings traded down and they had the choice between Richardson and Coples, Coples would be the pick even though DE is thought to be one of the few Vikings strengths. It just too hard to find 43 ends with that much potential.
While your in depth and complicated rebuttal is difficult to contend with (just messing with ya, no hostility here), again I disagree.RBs drafted in the 1st round the last 15 years:1996: 31997: 21998: 41999: 22000: 52001: 32002: 22003: 22004: 32005: 32006: 42007: 22008: 52009: 32010: 32011: 12008-2010 actually saw the most 1st round RBs drafted over any stretch in the last 20 years. The mean number of RBs drafted in the 1st round over that span is 2.9. That number has been eclipsed in 6 out of the last 8 years including 3 out of the last 4.So what is it exactly about 2008-2010 that contributed to this "more than 1 year trend" of GMs not caring about running backs? Sure, it's not like it was in the 70's through early 90's, but it's not really been noticeably different since the early 2000's. Even if you look strictly at top 10 picks, outside of the outlier in 2004 the last few years have been right on par with everything in the last 10-15 years.It's not like running backs don't continue to sign huge contracts either. The idea that most GMs don't care about the running back position is completely fabricated and only holds any weight because people have repeated it enough times on the internet (with no backing) that it's become engrained in people's head.
If that's the same Speilman that was the GM for the Dolphins when Dave Wannstadt was the HC, not only is he ######ed, but he's right off the bat the worst GM in the league. Don't front.I knew you would bring out examples from ancient history. Every team has had misses. Speilman record is not great but it is better than most. I guess you don't care that the Vikings have drafted two offensive rookie of the year recently. Trading up to get Gerhart over Ben Tate is hardly a crime especially since Tate has spent a year on IR. I wouldn't be surprised if Gerhart out produced Tate if he was running behind the same quality of Oline.I probably can't do this justice without spending more time than I have on it but, in a pinch and without mentioning Brett favre:Notable 1st round picks by the Vikings:Can you give me some examples?So, how many people are we going to have to put on suicide watch when one of these scenarios play out?
-He slips past the top 5 and the Chiefs grab him?
-The Bears let Forte walk and draft him.
-THE UNTHINKABLE (but who knows...they have done sillier), the Vikings get out from under ADP all together and just draft him. Sounds crazy, yes. BUT, if Richardson is "the next ADP"...."rare guy", like so many people say, then why don't they just do like the Colts and replace the man with the twin man?
Maybe the Vikes should just have sat still a few years ago and drafted Ben Tate...would've solved their porblems and prevented about 100 Tate Vs. Foster threads last year.
Personally I don't think Richardson is going to be the next coming (can't be the 2nd coming because people already gave that away to Ingram last year).
Leo Hayden (RB)-never played a down for them.
Michael Bennett (RB)-One year of 700 yards
Troy williamson (Wr)
Erasmus James (WR) took them both in the 1st the same year. Not much out of them
Dimitrius Underwood- I think he got released before ever playing for them.
I'm sure there are more but these are all first rounders.
Trading to get randy Moss the second time around didn't work out well
traded two picks to move up to get Toby. Could have easily sat back and "settled" for Ben tate.
tarvaris Jackson?
Would not be complete to mentione THE GREAT TRAIN ROBBERY:
Minnesota Vikings received
RB Herschel Walker
Dallas's 3rd round pick - 1990 (54) (Mike Jones)
San Diego's 5th round pick - 1990 (116) (Reggie Thornton)
Dallas's 10th round pick - 1990 (249) (Pat Newman)
Dallas's 3rd round pick - 1991 (68) (Jake Reed)
Dallas Cowboys received
LB Jesse Solomon
LB David Howard
CB Issiac Holt
RB Darrin Nelson (traded to San Diego after he refused to report to Dallas)
DE Alex Stewart
Minnesota's 1st round pick in 1990 (21) (traded this pick along with pick (81) for pick (17) from Pittsburgh to draft Emmitt Smith)
Minnesota's 2nd round pick in 1990 (47) (Alexander Wright)
Minnesota's 6th round pick in 1990 (158) (traded to New Orleans, who drafted James Williams)
Minnesota's 1st round pick in 1991 (conditional) - (12) (Alvin Harper)
Minnesota's 2nd round pick in 1991 (conditional) - (38) (Dixon Edwards)
Minnesota's 2nd round pick in 1992 (conditional) - (37) (Darren Woodson)
Minnesota's 3rd round pick in 1992 (conditional) - (71) (traded to New England, who drafted Kevin Turner)
Minnesota's 1st round pick in 1993 (conditional) - (13) (traded to Philadelphia Eagles, and then to the Houston Oilers, who drafted Brad Hopkins)[1]
When I look at the Vikings history of drafting and trading, I'm just willing to say it wouldn't surprise me with just baout anything they do.
Trading 1st and couple of 3rds was a great move to get Jared Allen especially since the rookie DEs from that draft year nevered produced much of anything. Trading back to snag Sydney Rice behind Dwayne Jarrett was another great move.
I can't believe I am arguing with a guy who thinks it is remotely possible that the Vikings would draft a RB with the #3 pick.
My
is that they go BJGE in the market and use that pick for a O or D line (Coples, DeCastro)
Spielman gets a lot of flack for trading Miami second round pick for AJ Feeley. Yet, Bill Parcell wasted a higher 2nd round pick on Pat White and no one is calling him the worst GM in the league. Everyone seems to forget that Mike Tannenbaum also wasted a 2nd round draft pick on Kellen Clemons. Spielman made a some mistakes. You live and you learn.
Yeah, Parcells makes mistakes, he also makes $$$ calls. Speilman is a complete dip####. I can't believe you are serious here.
This seems to be 100% off topic. Either PM each other or piss in a new thread.
The 40 and most of everything at the combine is over rated, film never lies.
I think there's a pretty good chance the Bucs are now targeting Morris with their pick. No way they take a LB at #5.
Agree...but now with the Blackmon news, does Claiborne even make it to #5? Who do the Bucs target if it goes Luck-Kalil-Claiborne-Griffin?
That would be WAY out of character for Cincy. Whether it is fair value or not, it is not something the Bengals will consider. They will most likely just sit at 17 and either get him if he falls or take BPA. They are all about maximizing value in the draft.
I get on the phone with Jacksonville in that scenario and ask for their 2nd rounder. They need Blackmon in the worst way, and probably don't want to risk Washington taking him.Then hope for Richardson at #7.It wouldn't be a bad spot to be in even if they can't swing a trade. Tampa would be choosing from the top 2 non-QB offensive position players in the draft.'gump said:
It feels like the Gaines Adams '07 draft....2 players we desparately need (Calvin and Joe Thomas then) will be off the board....so we are left to choose between decent talents at positions of need, like Adams was....or going after the BPA like Peterson was. We know we should have gone with Peterson then....
Yep - it would have to look like larceny for the Bengals to move up.I don't think a 1st and 3rd would get it done to move into the top 10, but that's the kind of offer I think Mikey would make.I'd be curious if there's ever been a deal where the Bengals traded two first round picks in the same deal, even if the 1sts were in different years.-QG'cheese said:
They also drafted Cadillac Williams with the 5th pick overall in 2005. Arguments can be made both ways. Edit: We also passed on Aaron Rodgers in that draft.
Maybe Tampa should be entertaining the idea of RG3 if he's available?I prefer Richardson pending free agency.
Good research and you make a strong point. I will say though that while overall numbers in the 1st round definitely prove your point, I think the specific draft pick also is a big factor.Without doing any research and going off of memory, it seems to me that in the last few years we have seen way fewer RBs going high in the 1st round. It wasn't that long ago that Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams all went in the top 5 of the same draft. Can you ever imagine a scenario like that playing out again any time soon with 3 of the top 5 picks being RBs?So I would personally argue that teams still regularly take RBs in the late part of the 1st round (Beanie Wells, Donald Brown, Mark Ingram, etc.) but it is much rarer in the last few years for teams to use those premium top 5 picks on RBs. Thus, it would make sense for an elite guy like Richardson to fall further in the 2012 draft than he would if the draft was taking place in 2005....
Other than 2011, in the last four years at least one RB went in the top 12 (which is still "early" in the round.2010 - Spiller @ 1.9; Matthews @ 1.12 (traded up to get him);2009 - Moreno @ 1.122008 - McFadden @ 1.04; Stewart @ 1.13 (3 other RBs late in round 1)Outside of QB and OT, it's probably safe to say it's rare for any position to go in the top 5, but it will still happen if a team feels the palyer warrants it.
I would still personally argue that it is less likely that a RB goes high in the draft now than it was 5-10 years ago. While I do think the diminution of value is probably overstated a bit (as your examples show), I do think that the league has shifted to more of a pass dominated focus. Thus, teams are less likely than they once were to draft a RB high. A few examples of guys going pretty early doesn't really disprove that notion.I think that's especially true of those top 5 picks (which is very relevant to this discussion of where Richardson will be drafted). The only RB of recent vintage to go top 5 was DMC and he was drafted by Al Davis. I would argue that he may be one of the very, very few GM/Owners who still had the mindset that a RB had that sort of value in today's NFL.But Trent Richardson will be a great test case for this theory. I personally think there's about a 25% chance he goes top 10, 50% chance he goes 11-16 and a 25% chance he falls to the Bengals at 17, which I think is his floor.
As I mentioned in my original post, even if you only look at early round 1 draft picks the last few years are still right on par with everything of the last 15 years or so.As mentioned, the 2005 draft was a very large outlier compared to not only years after it, but also years before it.In 2004 the 1st running back drafted was Steven Jackson at #24. In 2003 the first running back drafted was Willis Mcgahee at #23. in 2002 the first running back drafted was William Green at #16.
So concrete examples that show otherwise don't disporve an unsupported premise/threory?
I'm not saying Richardson will defintaely be a top 5 pick or even a top 10, just that he will provided some team thinks he's a top 10 talent. Just because there's a "shift" towards the passing game it doesn't mean RBs have been as discounted as some will lead you to beleive.
Yep, if some one's point is that we'll never see 3 RBs go in the top five again, I'd say they are very likely to be right - but to say we will never see a RB go in the Top 5 or Top 10 again is not really a reality based assumption - its taking an often talked about premise (it's now a passing league) and taking it to the extreme.People seem to be ignoring the fact the 2 of the final 4 teams this season were run based offenses with "weak" passing games - so if it's indeed a "copy cat" league, things can start to shift back that way pretty quickly.
The notion that the RB positoin has become devalued is new and thus looking back in the draft's history is largely irrelivant IMO. The NFL has been changing more and more to a passing league. Only 1 team in the NFL ran the ball more in the 1st half than they passed it last year. Only 4 ran more for the season, Den, SF, Hou and Jack. That was Den, who didn't have a choice or they too probably would have passed more. I think this trend started last year and will continue this year until something changes. I'm not agruing that it happened 2 years ago or prior. I think it will happen this year. The good thing for Richardson is that it only takes 1 team to fall in love with him in the top 10 and they will take him. He is a top 10 player. The odds should be on his side. If Richardson does fall out of the top 10 this year will you then acknowledge that there is a trend developing?Here is the trend I see, the NFL as a whole has seen it's team average for pass attempts increase steadily the past several years while it's team average for rushign attempts has steadily decreased. Here are the numbers;So concrete examples that show otherwise don't disporve an unsupported premise/threory?
If there was a stud run stopping DT or MLB available, would he fall in the draft as well since he'd be useless?
Is it just me or does this guy post angry 99% of the time? Like really upset.
I guess I'm not seeing the cause for concern that you are. That blurb references that the Bengals are considering RBBC that likely won't include Benson, but that the best case scenario would be for the Bengals to land someone such as Richardson or Michael Bush to take the bulk of the carries. There's nobody in Cincy that would justify taking any more than a handful of carries from Richardson, if he ends up there.
I think it was more the out of control contracts at the top of round 1 than anything else. Are you really going to drop ~$75MM on an RB that lasts 4-7 years or a QB/OT that might be a cornerstone for a decade or more? Now that the wages are "controlled", I think you'll see a better chance that RBs crack back into the top 5 more regularly.
I think we are confusing two seperate issues. I don't disagree that there has been a shift to teams passing more than in the past (although even the numbers you laid out show that it isn't as dramatic as people think). Where I do disagree is that that trend automatically leads to a "trend" where RBs become devalued by NFL teams to the point where an elite talent will drop in the draft for no other reason.Like I said earlier, it wouldn't shock me if Richardson does fall out of the Top 10 (especially in light of his recent knee issue), but it also wouldn't cause me to think that no RB will go in the Top 10 next season necessarily either.The notion that the RB positoin has become devalued is new and thus looking back in the draft's history is largely irrelivant IMO. The NFL has been changing more and more to a passing league. Only 1 team in the NFL ran the ball more in the 1st half than they passed it last year. Only 4 ran more for the season, Den, SF, Hou and Jack. That was Den, who didn't have a choice or they too probably would have passed more. I think this trend started last year and will continue this year until something changes. I'm not agruing that it happened 2 years ago or prior. I think it will happen this year. The good thing for Richardson is that it only takes 1 team to fall in love with him in the top 10 and they will take him. He is a top 10 player. The odds should be on his side. If Richardson does fall out of the top 10 this year will you then acknowledge that there is a trend developing?Here is the trend I see, the NFL as a whole has seen it's team average for pass attempts increase steadily the past several years while it's team average for rushign attempts has steadily decreased. Here are the numbers;So concrete examples that show otherwise don't disporve an unsupported premise/threory?
If there was a stud run stopping DT or MLB available, would he fall in the draft as well since he'd be useless?
year/pass attempts/rushing attempts
2011/544.1/436.6
2010/539.7./435
2009/532.3/440.3
2008/516.4/441.2
2007/532.7/437.1
2006/512.2/451.5
2005/514.5/449.2
2004/511.1/450.9
2003/515.4/453.4
2002/540.4/440.7
The past 5 years we have seen the average pass attempts over 530 in 4 of the 5 seasons. The previous 5 years, only 1 of 5 season and that season was a large anommoly seeing that every other season was 515 or less. In the last 5 seasons we have seen the rushing attempts average at 450 or above 0 times. In the previous 5 seasons it was 450 or greater 3 of 5 times with another season nipping at the number at 449.
It seems that way to me.
Why are you so angry over Cincy being a possible landing spot? Nothing but anger comes out of your mouth.'Multiple Scores said:
I don't agree with MS on much of anything. But, he's right. Cincy is a very cheap franchise, and they've done nothing to demonstrate that they will even consider keeping Dalton or AJG (let alone both of them) in the near-future. It's one of the more putrid teams in all sports. For the long-term Richardson owners, I wouldn't want him anywhere near Cincinnati.
TB should go Claiborne and I think he falls in Cincy's lap.
Really not seeing him fall to 17. I'm hoping Jax falls in love with Blackmon and trades up to the 5. Tampa takes Richardson at 7.'Multiple Scores said:
