Anyone else probably benching D Watson this week? For who?
Super flex. Brady get the first slot. Then it’s Watson, Dalton, Darnold or Foles. With the saints D being tough and the weather, I’m actually leaning Darnold.
I might lean Foles over Dalton.
The Detroit pass defense can definitely be exploited and their offense is good enough to force the Panthers to keep up but I am not sure what Darnold's ceiling is in this offense. I think maybe 200 yards passing with a TD with a chance at a rush TD if things break right. I mean does he still have 300 yard, 3 TD upside? Last season over the first four games he accounted for 1,189 yards passing (67.8% completions) with 5 TDs along with 52 yards rushing and another 5 TDs.
Now, he has only played 11 games since then but he is 183-326 (56.1%) for 1,847 yards for 7 TD & 10 INT with 205 rush yards and 1 TD. He averages 17-30 (56.1%) 168 yards, 0.6 TDs 0.9 INT, 19 yards rushing and 0.1 TD. He has multiple TDs in 2 of 9 games and 0 TD in 5 of 9 games. September of 2021 seems like a lifetime ago.
Any given Sunday and all that but I think the Panthers are shielding Darnold from mistakes as much as possible. The Lions have a potent offense but their splits between home and road scoring are stark. They average 32 ppg at home scoring 30 or more in 5 of 8 games with 31 total offensive TDs (4.8 average per rush). On the road they average 19 ppg scoring 30 or more points in 2 of 6 games with 11 total TDs (3.8 average per rush). To be fair, in their last 3 road games the Lions have put up 31, 31 & 20 so they may be getting better on the road. They are 100% capable of rolling the Panthers and score 50, forcing them into a track meet however this could also be another 20-13 game where Carolina throws 22 times for 135 yards and maybe a TD.
For me I am more intrigued by Nick Foles in a solid matchup with the Chargers. The Colts have talent on offense but their running game is probably diminished, the Chargers also have an offense that can put up points in bunches and we know weather won't be an issue in Los Angeles (looks like sunny and cold in Carolina with only 11 mph winds, no big deal). The Chargers are terrible against the run so the Colts will probably try to control the game on the ground but, even though the raw stats appear they are good against the pass it is only by virtue of teams running against them so much. The Chargers have the 3rd fewest pass attempts against by every other metric they are a middling pass defense so there should be opportunities for Foles. And if the combo of Jackson/Moss/Wilkins don't get anything going on the ground (personally I think they are all below average rushers), or if the Chargers surge to a big lead there is upside to be had with Foles.
IMO:
Foles>Darnold
ETA: I am considering starting Foles myself in a SF spot.
ETA 2.0: Foles is at home in the dome not on the road.