Chaka
Footballguy
Random guess but I'm thinking Higbee is the play. The Rams don't have a lot of NFL caliber pass catchers left.
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Week 16 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chaka
- Start date
Chaka
Footballguy
I'm good with your calls.PPR with 5 pt bonus at 150 rushing or receiving. I'm a fairly heavy underdog so aiming for high ceiling.
Starting Etienne and Mixon.
Starting AJ Brown, Lamb, and Godwin.
Benching Swift and Garrett Wilson.
I feel pretty good about this decision so this is less of a "Who Do I Start" and more of a "Convince Me Otherwise". Therefore I wouldn't have even posted, except that I know you do this for your own benefit too.
Don't think I would do anything different.
Chaka
Footballguy
I'm riding the hot hand in Dillon. He's getting 12-15 looks and over the last three games he's finally producing.
Goodwin is the other one I would consider as he is in line for a decent share of targets against a vulnerable defense. If you're down in Dillon, and no one would blame you if you were, Goodwin is the guy IMO.
No interest in Homer, especially in non PPR formats.
Love Robinson but that is a prohibitive matchup IMO. That Niners d is brutal.
massraider
Footballguy
Eff this whole week.
My entire roster is either playing on frozen tundra, or has a future guidance counselor playing QB
My entire roster is either playing on frozen tundra, or has a future guidance counselor playing QB
Chaka
Footballguy
I hate this matchup too but I also hate benching a guy in line for 17 or so looks. I can see why you're struggling.
No real way to logic through it except to say that Dillon seems like a great fall back who may be in line for 15 looks himself. And he's very much the hot hand ATM
It's razor thin but I think I would go:
Dillon>Etienne
kerpow
Footballguy
I'm in the same situation. Mahomes as my QB1, Watson is the only QB I could start in SF slot (Wentz, Brisset, Love etc. aren't options). No FA/WW pickups like Foles, Purdy, Minchew available. So, I'd be looking at Christian Waston as the next best flex PPR option.
Chaka
Footballguy
Missed this one.
Not sure how I would have called it, hope you went Engram but Andrews could still top him in standard if he finds the end zone.
Chaka
Footballguy
I might lean Foles over Dalton.
The Detroit pass defense can definitely be exploited and their offense is good enough to force the Panthers to keep up but I am not sure what Darnold's ceiling is in this offense. I think maybe 200 yards passing with a TD with a chance at a rush TD if things break right. I mean does he still have 300 yard, 3 TD upside? Last season over the first four games he accounted for 1,189 yards passing (67.8% completions) with 5 TDs along with 52 yards rushing and another 5 TDs.
Now, he has only played 11 games since then but he is 183-326 (56.1%) for 1,847 yards for 7 TD & 10 INT with 205 rush yards and 1 TD. He averages 17-30 (56.1%) 168 yards, 0.6 TDs 0.9 INT, 19 yards rushing and 0.1 TD. He has multiple TDs in 2 of 9 games and 0 TD in 5 of 9 games. September of 2021 seems like a lifetime ago.
Any given Sunday and all that but I think the Panthers are shielding Darnold from mistakes as much as possible. The Lions have a potent offense but their splits between home and road scoring are stark. They average 32 ppg at home scoring 30 or more in 5 of 8 games with 31 total offensive TDs (4.8 average per rush). On the road they average 19 ppg scoring 30 or more points in 2 of 6 games with 11 total TDs (3.8 average per rush). To be fair, in their last 3 road games the Lions have put up 31, 31 & 20 so they may be getting better on the road. They are 100% capable of rolling the Panthers and score 50, forcing them into a track meet however this could also be another 20-13 game where Carolina throws 22 times for 135 yards and maybe a TD.
For me I am more intrigued by Nick Foles in a solid matchup with the Chargers. The Colts have talent on offense but their running game is probably diminished, the Chargers also have an offense that can put up points in bunches and we know weather won't be an issue in Los Angeles (looks like sunny and cold in Carolina with only 11 mph winds, no big deal). The Chargers are terrible against the run so the Colts will probably try to control the game on the ground but, even though the raw stats appear they are good against the pass it is only by virtue of teams running against them so much. The Chargers have the 3rd fewest pass attempts against by every other metric they are a middling pass defense so there should be opportunities for Foles. And if the combo of Jackson/Moss/Wilkins don't get anything going on the ground (personally I think they are all below average rushers), or if the Chargers surge to a big lead there is upside to be had with Foles.
IMO:
Foles>Darnold
ETA: I am considering starting Foles myself in a SF spot.
ETA 2.0: Foles is at home in the dome not on the road.
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Chaka
Footballguy
I think I'd go with Watson here. The forecast in Chicago has consistently been winds around 27mph with gusts in the 30s & 40s. Watson can absolutely hurt teams with his feet (By comparison I have not been fading Fields who is facing similar weather) but I am not sure I want to bank on that with Chubb to rely on in the backfield.
Watson has a great matchup and no significant weather to speak of. If that game turns into a track meet, so much the better and if it doesn't he is always targeted on 2-3 deep 50:50 balls that can salvage a down game. And, IMO, in these weather conditions C.Watson has a significantly higher ceiling.
Obviously the weather bears monitoring tomorrow when we can finally get eyeballs on Browns Stadium but ATM:
C.Watson>D.Watson
Chaka
Footballguy
I mean...yes???
I have no earthly idea here. In a PPR Njoku could still catch 5-6 short passes but that weather is an absolute nightmare.
Malik Willis is also kind of a nightmare scenario. Against Houston the Titans will probably try to run 40+ times. Willis may not have 20 pass attempts. Last game v Houston also with Malik starting the Titans ran 45 times for 319 yards. Henry has a four game streak of 200+ yards against the Texans.
Total W.A.G. and definitely go with your gut:
Njoku>Chig
-OZ-
Footballguy
not that it matters but I’m pretty much forced to play Paris Campbell too (over Woods, Pierce and McKenzie) so the stack on MNF, along with Paye and Ekeler while my opponent only has M Williams and Buchner is intriguing. Did you prefer Deshaun or Foles?
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
.5 PPR, which 3 of these 4? Thanks!
Metcalf vs KC
Watson vs Mia
Jeudy vs LAR
AJ Brown vs Dal
Metcalf vs KC
Watson vs Mia
Jeudy vs LAR
AJ Brown vs Dal
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Anyone sitting Diggs for... anyone in a warm weather game with a pulse?
This game has 4 for 30 written all over it
This game has 4 for 30 written all over it
Chaka
Footballguy
I hate benching a clearly superior talent but that wind forecast seems for real.
Did you prefer Deshaun or Foles?
D.Watson is a great athlete and runner but he's not Fields IMO.
This is a fingers crossed scenario and try to watch some live feeds of Cleveland stadium tomorrow AM but:
Foles>Watson
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Chaka
Footballguy
I am probably starting DK & C.Watson no matter what. The matchups are too nice.
I think, almost entirely based on the premise that in a close game, or one where they are comfortably leading, Denver will try to skew run heavy, I probably bench Jeudy.
But, it would also be understandable if you had concerns about Minshew & the Dallas defense.
For me though:
AJ Brown>Jeudy
Chaka
Footballguy
PPR?
What kind of pulse are we talking about? Romeo Doubs? Alec Pierce? Gotta know the options.
massraider
Footballguy
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Doubs is my main option on the roster. High o/u in better (but not perfect) weather. Basically gambling on a long TD
have on the wire
Sutton (who I don't like)
Gage (potentially intriguing but I have White going as an RB2 and feel like that won't be a passing game)
KJ Osborn (dont love this game script for Minny, feel like they'll do what they want with the giants but they've been hot)
Jameson Williams (who I can't really justify but is always intriguing to grab a long one)
My lineup was set it and forget it for several weeks but between a few guys being banged up and Hopkins having McSorley throwing him the ball this week things have gotten a bit cloudy. Need to decide on RB2/WR2/Flex.
RB1: Stevenson (vs Cin)
RB2: Dobbins (vs Atl), Walker (@ KC), Swift (@ Car)
WR1: Jefferson (vs NYG)
WR2: Hopkins (vs TB), Godwin (@ Ari)
Flex: Any of the above
RB1: Stevenson (vs Cin)
RB2: Dobbins (vs Atl), Walker (@ KC), Swift (@ Car)
WR1: Jefferson (vs NYG)
WR2: Hopkins (vs TB), Godwin (@ Ari)
Flex: Any of the above
Chaka
Footballguy
Am I missing the part where you said it was a PPR league or not?
I completely understand your situation. Doubs is the only one I would consider but I don't think the deep ball is really his game. I don't know a ton about his profile but, in the limited action I have seen he seems to be more of a chain mover. He can move a little with 4.8 YAC/R but I am not sure he has the long speed to breakaway even if he forces a missed tackle or two.
You start Doubs, IMO, hoping for another 5-50 performance to hold the position down for you. He certainly has some TD upside the closer they get to the end zone but he's probably 4th or 5th on the general pecking order for TDs behind Jones, Dillon, Lazard & Watson.
The question is how many short passes can Diggs muster up? And will Allen lock into him even more trusting him to make plays in harsh conditions.
I am becoming hesitant to give advice for Cleveland & Chicago at this point but my impulse is to follow the talent.
Diggs>Doubs
Chaka
Footballguy
Oh man...uhhhhhhhhhh...Pierce maybe? I like him over Marshall & Chig for sure because Foles is simply a better QB and, at the very least should be throwing a lot more than Darnold & Willis.
I think Cooper may be an option for full PPR as maybe he can pull some short throws. He is probably the more precise route runner than Davis. But with the TE premium maybe I can see Chig, but I would not be at all surprised if Willis had fewer than 20 attempts.
But really this is a total dart throw:
Pierce>Cooper>Chig>Gabe>Marshall
Chaka
Footballguy
PPR?
If it's PPR I like Swift>Dobbins>Walker
If it's a standard league I prefer Dobbins>Swift>Walker
I have difficulty putting faith in Walker when he did not log a practice this week. But Walker is the 'best' talent of your options (I guess) and has a solid matchup so it may be a smart move to roll with talent here and hope for the best.
For WR I like Godwin over Hopkins. I think Hopkins may see a couple more targets but Godwin will also see a bunch and they will probably be higher quality. I also think the Buccaneers will run more plays overall and have more scoring opportunities.
Godwin>Hopkins
The flex is a little more difficult depending on your format and what you are trying to accomplish. I probably lean towards whichever RB you did not choose.
John Kreese
Footballguy
Need 1 for flex PPR
McKinnon vs SEA
C. Watson vs MIA
Dobbins vs ATL
Thanks!
McKinnon vs SEA
C. Watson vs MIA
Dobbins vs ATL
Thanks!
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
This is PPR and that’s my lean to go diggs
But I do know we will likely get more points in the GB game
Chaka
Footballguy
I am not confident about these guys at all but:
I probably roll Kamara on the premise that the Saints will have to try and win on the ground against what has been a terrible defense. And if any part of the passing game will be working it's probably short stuff.
I think Sanders is in line for 20 or so looks and the Cowboys are definitely more vulnerable to the run than the pass. Being said, without Hurts under center Sanders will be easier to defend. Still I think he is a good volume play,
Probably the same for Conner but with McSorley under center Conner is even easier to defend than Sanders. I also worry about the Arizona offense just stalling in general. But I really know nothing about McSorley, maybe I am too concerned about that. Conner is also a factor out of the backfield so, regardless of anything his floor is probably decent.
I like Goedert but first week back with Minshew, who I do like, under center...pass.
The Panthers can be run on, no doubt and if it were a full PPR I would strongly consider either, or both Detroit backs (I currently have both in my own lineup) but, if choosing one of them it becomes tougher. In 0.5 PPR I am not 100% which one I like more, or if I like either more than Conner or Sanders or Kamara.
I could go a lot of different directions with this one, but I think your "safest" lineup is:
Kamara>Conner>Sanders>Swift>Jamaal>Goedert
Chaka
Footballguy
Agree on both counts. It's a bold call to move away from a guy like Diggs but, your logic is sound.
Bozeman Bruiser
Footballguy
A few things have changed since my post earlier in the week (Olave OUT, Goodwin ankle injury/Q/GTD, Walker not practicing/Q/GTD)
If Goodwin is OUT:
flex, ppr, pick 1:
Pickens @ LV
Richie James @ Min (I lean here because this game could be the highest scoring game of the week and Min pass def has been suspect lately)
If Walker is OUT:
RB2, ppr, pick 1:
Perine @ NE
Warren vs LV
Are Goodwin and Walker both auto starts if they play or is risk of an injury/decoy/etc worth pivoting. TIA
If Goodwin is OUT:
flex, ppr, pick 1:
Pickens @ LV
Richie James @ Min (I lean here because this game could be the highest scoring game of the week and Min pass def has been suspect lately)
If Walker is OUT:
RB2, ppr, pick 1:
Perine @ NE
Warren vs LV
Are Goodwin and Walker both auto starts if they play or is risk of an injury/decoy/etc worth pivoting. TIA
Chaka
Footballguy
Three nice matchups.
Because it's full PPR I think I would roll the dice McKinnon.
McKinnon has been seeing crazy targets almost since Mecole Hardman left the lineup. With Hardman out another week and facing, perhaps, the worst rush defense in the league and he plays for the highest scoring team in the league. I think he is a strong roll of the dice.
I also like Watson a lot this week and might consider him over McKinnon but I don't think his target share is entirely locked in. He will probably see about 6 unless this game turns into a true track meet, but there is just as much chance that happens with KC/SEA as in this game.
I do like Dobbins but he brings nothing in PPR and the offense is stagnating with Huntley under center.
McKinnon>Watson>Dobbins
massraider
Footballguy
You sure you can't start two? Because McKinnon and Dobbins are both probably projected top 15 RB this week.
John Kreese
Footballguy
Only start 1 RB in this league and I have Saquon in that spot so I can only start 1 more.
Chaka
Footballguy
Goodwin is on track to play.
I probably like Richie James over Pickens because of weather (15mph winds with 20-30mph gusts) and it's an even better matchup. But part of me also wonders if, somehow the Steelers pull one together for Franco. But I am not going to bet on that.
James>Pickens
I probably take the risk with Warren as the New England has a better scoring defense and has allowed only 6 rush TDs this season. The Bengals also have a lot more places to distribute the ball.
But a call like this is entirely a coin flip.
Warren>Perine
John Kreese
Footballguy
Thanks for the reply. I was leaning McKinnon.
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
Jamall probably due for a TD but if you are just looking for floor, I'd probably go Foles as safest bet
Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah, those are the two I am struggling with.
dmac37
Footballguy
I have J. Johnson and Higbee, both have major issues. Will the Saints throw less than 10 times like the Pats vs Bills a few years ago. Higbee faces the Broncos who have one of the best pass rushes, Higbee tends to stay in and block in these situations.
Chaka
Footballguy
Oh, it's definitely less than ideal.
Reports are it's going to feel like -37 in Cleveland and the wind will be close to 30mph. I like Juwan but it's tough to see any upside there.
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
PPR flex spot, pick one (smaller league so I have a lot of options)
L. Murray at Rams
L. Fournette at AZ
R. White at AZ
K. Walker at KC
Walker's health makes me uncomfortable, Murray's age and the emergence of Mack makes me uncomfortable, and the Buccaneers offense makes me uncomfortable. Which should provide the least discomfort? Thanks for your assistance.
L. Murray at Rams
L. Fournette at AZ
R. White at AZ
K. Walker at KC
Walker's health makes me uncomfortable, Murray's age and the emergence of Mack makes me uncomfortable, and the Buccaneers offense makes me uncomfortable. Which should provide the least discomfort? Thanks for your assistance.
Chaka
Footballguy
I'm not sure Mack has emerged from anywhere. What's the case for that? 9 opportunities in a game Latavius had 25? Their snap shares were 64% to 29%. Murray closed that game out too, Mack didn't see the field after 11 minutes left in the 4th. Seems like the clear backup to me.
Fournette and White seem to be in a full timeshare but, if I had to guess, in a game they control Fournette would see some strong opportunities. I think TB could control this game but after what Houston did to Dallas and KC I caution against predicting game script.
I agree about Walker but he is your best player. Nothing wrong with rolling him out. In fact I hate the idea of benching him. But I am definitely worried about a guy who doesn't log a practice all week.
Latavius>Walker>Fournette>White
rockaction
Footballguy
Doozy here:
Full PPR for receivers, .5 PPR for RB designation. Need One FLEX and one TE decision. It's a start nine league.
TE decision:
Dallas Goedert/David Njoku/Jordin Akins (Goedert has Minshew, Njoku has weather, TN gives up sixth-most to tight ends w/r/t to Akins)
FLEX:
D. Chark/Jeff Wilson/Deon Jackson/Allen Lazard/D'Onta Foreman/Cordarrelle Patterson/Courtland Sutton/Demarcus Robinson/Chris Moore
Full PPR for receivers, .5 PPR for RB designation. Need One FLEX and one TE decision. It's a start nine league.
TE decision:
Dallas Goedert/David Njoku/Jordin Akins (Goedert has Minshew, Njoku has weather, TN gives up sixth-most to tight ends w/r/t to Akins)
FLEX:
D. Chark/Jeff Wilson/Deon Jackson/Allen Lazard/D'Onta Foreman/Cordarrelle Patterson/Courtland Sutton/Demarcus Robinson/Chris Moore
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hamsterdam
Footballguy
.5 PPR
Mark Andrews vs ATL - good matchup but hasn’t been putting up great numbers. Guaranteed targets.
Taysom Hill vs CLE - weather is setting up to favor Hill’s rushing against a bad run defense
Mark Andrews vs ATL - good matchup but hasn’t been putting up great numbers. Guaranteed targets.
Taysom Hill vs CLE - weather is setting up to favor Hill’s rushing against a bad run defense
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Weather looks rough in Chicago - 11° & 21 MPH winds at game time. 
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Tough call. No idea what to expect from the new-look INDY offense. Jackson is splitting carries, and their QB isn’t great at producing TDs.
Gogurt fresh off injury, and with a backup QB.
I’d probably roll the dice with Gogurt. Can’t help but feel like Minshew is going to pepper him as an emergency outlet.
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