dickey moe
Fingerpicker
He's one year older, plus he's had injuries the two past seasons that have really cut into his production. #10 WR dynasty sounds about right to me.
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Couch Potato 2012 Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Couch Potato
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
I'll mention also that the late drop off age for QBs is about 36-37 in my estimation and even though there are exceptions I take that pretty seriously. Guys may still play, but arm strength declines, injuries mount, etc. Physical freaks like Favre are rare. Maybe Peyton and Brady will also be exceptions but I can't blindly rank them as though they were still 30, not in dynasty.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Stafford is the real deal IMO. He was 64% this year, 41-16 TD/INT ratio, over 5,000 yards. In his two healthy games in the middle of 2010 season he put up 27 FPs in both games, we might have recognized that as a preview of 2011. I'm not sure how you can say he doesn't have the stats.Cam is ranked high so I'm not arguing against him potentially being great, but there needs to be some caution. He's not the passer Rodgers, Stafford, Brees are. He got 14 TDs on the ground in 2011, a number certain to decline and probably not be repeated again in his career. I want to give him another year before I anoint him a Tier 1 guy.
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
I'll be doing my 2nd pass on RBs in a week or two. I appreciate all the input, and will definitely take it into consideration. The points made about the Redskins RBs were especially appreciated. I'd missed that Hightower is a FA and need to maybe look at Royster differently. Of course with Shanny around the whole RB situation is always going to be a party to figure out. 
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
I don't disagree Cam's rushing touchdowns are high. But you think Stafford is going to regularly hit 5,000 yards and 40+ touchdowns? That's a rare event as well. Don't knock one without knocking the other. Cam's touchdowns might drop but he's still going to rush for several hundred yards each year. That goes a very long ways in most leagues.
Minor nitpick - I'd put Alex Smith over Gabbert. He'll likely return to SF. He's not the long term answer but he's decent enough. I realize Gabbert was a rookie so he might improve but I'll eat crow if he pans out. Kid looks absolutely horrendous. Only reason he's going to start is because he was a high draft pick. I saw absolutely nothing to indicate he's going to get it together. It's not just the lack of weapons - it was his flinching at the ghost rush in numerous games. Heck, I'd put Tebow over Gabbert as well. I also don't believe Tebow will keep his job but at least he's had a couple good games and can put up a few good/great fantasy scores before losing his job. Again, those rushing yards add up. Gabbert is barely startable even in my 32 team league.
Minor nitpick - I'd put Alex Smith over Gabbert. He'll likely return to SF. He's not the long term answer but he's decent enough. I realize Gabbert was a rookie so he might improve but I'll eat crow if he pans out. Kid looks absolutely horrendous. Only reason he's going to start is because he was a high draft pick. I saw absolutely nothing to indicate he's going to get it together. It's not just the lack of weapons - it was his flinching at the ghost rush in numerous games. Heck, I'd put Tebow over Gabbert as well. I also don't believe Tebow will keep his job but at least he's had a couple good games and can put up a few good/great fantasy scores before losing his job. Again, those rushing yards add up. Gabbert is barely startable even in my 32 team league.
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
I'm not ranking Smith ahead of Gabbert even though I agree Gabbert looked like trash. I'm willing to give Gabby another year before I deem him a bust, and the team is giving him some rope. Smith though already has his replacement learning behind him, and despite all the politically correct things being said (that have to be said when the team is 13-3), I believe Harbaugh is excited to get Kaep in there. Let's see what kind of contract Alex signs. I don't care so much about the total $. If it has a lot of guaranteed money I may re-evaluate, but if it's a deal they can easily get out of or modify in a year, their purported faith is just propaganda. He's a short-termer IMO.
EBF
Footballguy
Not sure I agree. Here's what those guys did in their first seasons as a starter:Cam Newton
Yards per attempt - 7.84
TD/INT ratio - 1.24
Completion percentage - 60.0%
QB rating - 84.5
Drew Brees
Yards per attempt - 6.24
TD/INT ratio - 1.06
Completion percentage - 60.8%
QB rating - 76.9
Matt Stafford
Yards per attempt - 6.01
TD/INT ratio - 0.65
Completion percentage - 53.3%
QB rating - 61.0
Aaron Rodgers
Yards per attempt - 7.53
TD/INT ratio - 2.15
Completion percentage - 63.6%
QB rating - 106.0
Cam was a better passer than Brees and Stafford were at the same stage of their careers even though he has less experience. Rodgers had better numbers, but then again he was a fourth year player when he finally became a starter. Not quite parallel situations.
Cam had a comparable completion percentage and a superior yards per attempt average compared to Stafford this year, so I'm not sure how you can say he's not the same caliber of passer. Add in Cam's significantly higher ceiling and he's the better dynasty play IMO.
I know I just got done saying you can't assume that QBs will improve, but Cam is already passing at a Pro Bowl level and he's the best running QB in the NFL. I don't think you've given enough weight to how incredible his rookie year was. Factor in the possibility of improvement and he's a pretty scary proposition.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I understand. I was crazy busy most of the season and posted little. Things are better now so I'm giving this a go, and hopefully once I get all the pieces in that I plan on, updating it as new events unfold (like free agency, NFL draft, roles changing, etc.) won't be a major feat. As far as pieces to add are concerned, I'm also planning on adding:1) Player notes2) Indicating who the UFAs are and my early guess as to where they might go3) Player QYR. Quality Years Remaining - a concept you may recall I came up with and posted on a few years ago that I still use.4) A NPV for players, like financial net present value, another FF dynasty valuation concept I've toyed with off and on for a decade5) Preliminary slotting rookies pre-draft. Trent Richardson for example might be listed as 4R, shown between players #4 and #5. If I'm lucky all the pieces will be in place, just needing periodic updates, by the end of February. And when I do updates on a position I'll have for example (+4) or (-6) by the player's name to indicate movement since the previous update.
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
As always EBF, your overall input is appreciated and respected. But I kind of think I HAVE given considerable weight to Cam's rookie year. A #3 ranking for the entire league after just one season puts him only behind Rodgers and a guy I make no apologies for ranking as my #2. Does my ranking of Stafford match consensus? Nope. I could go compile and post a consensus list of 5 other guys' or sites' rankings, but then it wouldn't have my faith and be rankings. Again, #3 isn't exactly disrespecting. I have a little less confidence in Cam's future career right now than I do in Stafford's. They are both youngsters and in another year I could see it differently, but until each puts another season on the board it is what it is.
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
11 Stewart, Jonathan CAR
I own JS and still think this is a little high. What am i missing?
I own JS and still think this is a little high. What am i missing?
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Yeah... tough guy to rank, gotta tell you. In my 2nd pass I can't promise he'll stay there. BUT, my reasoning -- I'm at least partly banking on him at 25 vs. DeAngelo at 29 will have more and more effect the next several years. Plus a lot of Cam's 700 yards and 14 TDs on the ground will belong to Stewart in a more normal year. I don't believe they want their QB taking that kind of pounding running the ball over the long haul, and in fact if you look at the yearly history of running QBs their rushing stats generally begin to taper off a lot after their 2nd year.
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Thanks.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Vick stayed consistent before going to prison. McNabb stayed near or way above his rookie totals until his sixth year. Rodgers has increased his rushing totals. Last year Freeman (his third year) stayed similar to his previous years. Culpepper stayed constant before wrecking his knee. You can argue sample sizes but it seems to me Newton is a safe bet to rush for as many yards in 2012 as he did in 2011. The rushing touchdowns will likely fall but I see no reason to think the yards will vanish. And again, you seem to be ignoring the fact throwing for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns is a rare event. Quarterbacks who have thrown 5,000 yards in a season:Marino (once)Brees (twice)Brady (once)Stafford (once)40+ touchowns is also a rarity.
Tau837
Footballguy
Nice list, GB. 
Comments:
Comments:This seems too high to me, given he has so much trouble staying healthy and given that he is 32 and has historically gotten so much of his value from running. His speed and willingness to run will likely taper off sharply within the next couple of years or so. IMO he belongs in tier 4, and not necessarily at the top of that tier.
I may have missed it if you indicated a time frame for your rankings (i.e., how many years forward are you looking). I know you are going to post QYR at some point, which will get at my point. Brady is on quite a roll the past two seasons, but how long can it last? I think his value is probably at its peak right now and drafting or trading for him is paying a premium for a guy certain to almost immediately decline in value. I don't have a problem with this ranking, but I probably wouldn't pay the price on him at this stage.
Schaub looks a tier too low to me, and I am surprised to see him below Palmer and Flacco. IMO Schaub should be a tier higher. And Palmer looks overrated here... I am surprised to see him ranked above not only Schaub, but also Dalton and Flynn. Part of that on Flynn may be where you are projecting him to end up, and the potential of that offense. I'd probably rearrange these like this:15 Schaub, Matt HOU 31.216 Flacco, Joe BAL 27.617 Dalton, Andy CIN 24.818 Flynn, Matt GB 27.219 Palmer, Carson OAK 32.720 Sanchez, Mark NYJ 25.8
And, yes, that means I'd push Peyton further down. I don't care what his camp released last week, I am not convinced he will ever play again. And if he does, it will be for a different team, with a different offense, different coaches, different receivers, different blocking schemes, etc. And if he does, we don't know if he will ever have the exact same arm strength, accuracy, etc., because we don't know if his neck and arm will ever be 100% healed. Combine all that with his age, and Peyton goes on my "do not draft" list. I realize he should still be listed in a ranking, but he looks too high here IMO. I'd drop him into the next tier at least.
Too low IMO. I'd have him in the top 5 or very close to it.
Too high IMO. Too many surgeries on both feet and both ankles. I don't have confidence that he will last. He finished as RB13 two years ago, but he needed 323 touches to get there... how likely is that to ever happen again? He finished as RB20 this year despite missing 4 games, but he scored 11 TDs in 205 touches, compared to just 8 in 323 touches the previous year. Can he sustain the TDs? Are you banking on Jacobs leaving and Bradshaw's usage going up?
This seems really hard to justify for dynasty purposes. IMO Spiller should be higher and Jackson lower.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Thanks Awesome and JWB. None of your comments will be taken lightly, and when I go through the rankings again I'll give them full consideration (as I will with everyone's comments). I won't say I was hasty putting my first rankings out -- I wasn't -- but I do intend to go more thoroughly through an evaluation of each player one by one for my 2nd iteration. And while I don't intend for this to become a message board consensus list, all of these comments will help point to things I'll want to look at more closely. Thanks again.
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
I'll also reply to your comments when I go through things again, whether I agree or disagree. No point in doing so now, since you have shattered my confidence (um, that was a joke. )
)
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Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
I take Stafford over Newton 10 out of 10. I like the QB rankings and I have both those guys.
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Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
I'm less interested in who you would take and more interested in why you would take them. I really appreciate CP doing this but if someone has player x ranked higher than player y but facts show the reasons for the ranking are out of whack then it's time to reconsider things. I've no issue with Stafford being ranked higher than Newton (I think it's close even if I value Newton more). But if you simply want to rank them that way because Newton's rushing totals will drop I think that's incredibly simplistic and flat out wrong. The offseason is a time when we should all look at the facts as a sobering dose of reality as it collides with our personal rankings.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I said I'd get back to you with more reasoning and I will. Meantime, please don't assume the only reason I have Stafford over Newton is an expected decline in rushing. "Incredibly simplistic and flat out wrong..." Hmmm, OK. Sorry I've disappointed you.
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Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
I didn't. Just saying *if* that's the primary reasoning it's backed in questionable facts. Apologies for not being more clear. Wasn't directed at you specifically. We get a lot of folk in the regular season who like player x over player y and when pushed for reasoning they have little more than "because". Offseason is when we get to shelve that logic.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
With the current state of the rules in the NFL do you think the Lions will be transitioning more to a running offense? Stafford showed the ability to put up major passing numbers this season. Granted, that was with a high number of attempts. I wouldn't expect those attempt numbers to decrease significantly considering the passing firepower on that roster and at least 8 games a year in the dome.You're really selling Stafford short comparing him to those players, by the way. Overvaluing a player because of their youth is a common problem in dynasty circles. Devaluing Stafford because those players never developed into elite QBs isn't wise. None of those guys had ever been close statistically to what Stafford accomplished this season, and none of them had a weapon like Calvin Johnson on their team. Cam has his running ability, an aging Steve Smith, and not too much else. He made some nice throws/reads this season, but he makes some awful ones as well. It depends on scoring systems, but I'd count on more TDs and fantasy points being accounted for through Stafford than Cam the next 5+ years or so. CP's ranking of these two players is spot on, imo.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I dont think the running game will improve as much as the defense will improve. That teams pass and run d was pretty terrible, and they should "regress to the mean" and be an average defense trhough FA and the draft this season.having a lead and a good def can hurt passing numbers just as much as a good running game.The lions Oline is a pass blocking line. And their RBs cannot stay healthy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I've never really agreed with the bolded unless the team is built as a defensive, ball control team. The Lions certainly aren't that. They're being built similarly to the way the Colts were in their heyday. Ferocious pass rush with a potent passing offense that can score quickly to get a lead. A defense that gives the ball back to their offense quickly and puts them in good positions to score can be a very positive thing for an offense looking to put up points.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I've had a day to ruminate over this so I thought I'd reply to some of it now. I'll continue to ponder some more but here's what I'm thinking at this point.Vick (5) -- Your point is valid and I think I will drop him down. I was only thinking about the age in QB terms and not giving enough consideration to the point you made, that being a hybrid I need to look at the legs as well as the arm. His legs will age faster, and I do need to factor that in. And as he becomes less of a threat to run, defenses will adjust and make it tougher to find open guys to throw to. I was feeling uncomfortable not having Rivers in the tier Vick is listed in and my update will bump Rivers up and drop Vick down. How far down I don't know yet, not a lot probably, but into the next tier for sure.Brady (8) -- Most dynasty rankings have Tom Terrific still in the top 4 or 5, and to drop him as far as I did at #8 I thought was going to get the 'he's too low!' criticisms. For now I think he's fine where he is. His style of play isn't based on arm strength and I'd be a lot more worried about imminent drop off if that were the case. I think he has a couple high quality years left and he may be one of those exceptional guys who carries on further. He has given no indication he is anywhere close to wanting to hang them up. His numbers, even with a small decline, are so much better than guys in the tier below that I'm content to keep his ranking in the tier I have him in. Schaub (17) -- As you can see, I wasn't feeling very high on him when I did the rankings. This is becoming more of a running team and all of his primary targets (AJ, Daniels, Walter) are a bit past their prime, and Jacoby Jones never really came through as was hoped. Schaub went from QB4 on a PPG basis in 2009 to QB 13 and 12 in 2010 and 2011, and if I project out 2-3 years based on the aging of the afore-mentioned targets, I see the arrow pointing down further. Hence dropping him into the next tier. You may be right though, maybe I'm discounting him too much, dunno. I'll give this more thought.Palmer (16) -- Again I'll take a closer look, as I will with them all, but I ranked Palmer here because I saw a guy come in mid-season and, excluding the week 7 game where he was getting acclimated again, put up QB11 numbers on a PPG basis the rest of the year. With an offseason and a better group of WRs in Ford, Moore, and Hey-Bey (and hopefully McFadden, a good pass catching RB) than he had his last years in CIN, I think he can certainly perform at QB16 where I have him ranked. The arm strength that was widely reported to have declined (injury?) was back after his time on sabbatical, and at 32 he's not old.Dalton (20) -- I'm cautiously optimistic about him, but I'll want to see more before I move him up further. He did maybe more than was to be expected from a rookie, but was plenty spotty, and I can't get too giddy over him. I see him as an average NFL talent.Flynn (21) -- I see too little body of evidence to warrant a higher ranking. I expect him to land in WAS, CLE, SEA, or MIA in that order. I'd hoped for MIA but I see Manning going there. Pretty big drop for those first three listed from the talent he had in Green Bay.Manning (18) -- OK, clearly we are interpreting / evaluating differently what we're reading in the news. I don't think he's finished at all. I think he goes into 2012 solidly capable of being a top-8 QB (a fantasy starter), and will play again at a high level in 2013. To me, that alone justifies a ranking above those I have listed below him, all who are mediocre or unproven or both, and are likely to not be fantasy starters. If he plays in 2014+ and plays well, that's gravy. He'll be signed by someone well before the start of free agency (probably released and signed in the next 14 days by MIA is my guess), and will have plenty of time to get in sync with his new WRs. By the way, consensus rankings I've looked at since reading your post (to see if I was being wacky in the eyes of others) has him at about QB13 so I guess I'm actually less optimistic than most.Bradshaw (RB13) -- I was assuming Jacobs is gone. That may not be valid. And the point about the foot issues is a good one. You're right, I think I do have Bradshaw too high and will be moving him down.Murray (RB12) -- I don't share your top-5 optimism. He was actually on my mental "avoid" list in rookie drafts I was so concerned about his body of work in college. While that now seems to have been an 'oops,' I worry if RB12 may actually be a little too lofty. He was repeatedly injured in college and ended up on IR in the NFL. He did have one magnificent game against the Rams (who often tackled like a high school team) and two very good games against SEA and BUF, but that's not enough IMO to warrant vaulting him into tier 2. My confidence in him just isn't there at this point and I'll have to see more to be a believer.Spiller (RB22) and Jackson (RB24) -- another poster or two have commented that Spiller is too low, so I agree I need to look harder at this situation. My thinking at the time of the ranking was the expectation Jackson would re-sign and continue to be the lead back the next two seasons (I'm aware of his age and that's a concern), and Spiller would be the versatile RB/WR hybrid. I have a gnawing suspicion Spiller may never be a feature back, hence the ranking. But I'll have another go at it and may be persuaded to think differently when I do the rankings again.Thanks for your input JWB. You know I think of you as not only a great friend but as one of the wisest FF guys I know, so anytime we disagree I am made to stop and re-evaluate. We may still disagree after that, but a spotlight has been put on possible areas of dunderheadedness and that's exactly what I want from guys on this board.'Just Win Baby said:Nice list, GB.
This seems too high to me, given he has so much trouble staying healthy and given that he is 32 and has historically gotten so much of his value from running. His speed and willingness to run will likely taper off sharply within the next couple of years or so. IMO he belongs in tier 4, and not necessarily at the top of that tier.I may have missed it if you indicated a time frame for your rankings (i.e., how many years forward are you looking). I know you are going to post QYR at some point, which will get at my point. Brady is on quite a roll the past two seasons, but how long can it last? I think his value is probably at its peak right now and drafting or trading for him is paying a premium for a guy certain to almost immediately decline in value. I don't have a problem with this ranking, but I probably wouldn't pay the price on him at this stage.Schaub looks a tier too low to me, and I am surprised to see him below Palmer and Flacco. IMO Schaub should be a tier higher. And Palmer looks overrated here... I am surprised to see him ranked above not only Schaub, but also Dalton and Flynn. Part of that on Flynn may be where you are projecting him to end up, and the potential of that offense. I'd probably rearrange these like this:15 Schaub, Matt HOU 31.216 Flacco, Joe BAL 27.617 Dalton, Andy CIN 24.818 Flynn, Matt GB 27.219 Palmer, Carson OAK 32.720 Sanchez, Mark NYJ 25.8And, yes, that means I'd push Peyton further down. I don't care what his camp released last week, I am not convinced he will ever play again. And if he does, it will be for a different team, with a different offense, different coaches, different receivers, different blocking schemes, etc. And if he does, we don't know if he will ever have the exact same arm strength, accuracy, etc., because we don't know if his neck and arm will ever be 100% healed. Combine all that with his age, and Peyton goes on my "do not draft" list. I realize he should still be listed in a ranking, but he looks too high here IMO. I'd drop him into the next tier at least.Too low IMO. I'd have him in the top 5 or very close to it.Too high IMO. Too many surgeries on both feet and both ankles. I don't have confidence that he will last. He finished as RB13 two years ago, but he needed 323 touches to get there... how likely is that to ever happen again? He finished as RB20 this year despite missing 4 games, but he scored 11 TDs in 205 touches, compared to just 8 in 323 touches the previous year. Can he sustain the TDs? Are you banking on Jacobs leaving and Bradshaw's usage going up?This seems really hard to justify for dynasty purposes. IMO Spiller should be higher and Jackson lower.
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
I was being tongue in cheek. Sorry, that doesn't come through in print very well. We're cool, and I honestly do appreciate the input. My widdiw feewins weren't huwt, I promise.I didn't. Just saying *if* that's the primary reasoning it's backed in questionable facts. Apologies for not being more clear. Wasn't directed at you specifically. We get a lot of folk in the regular season who like player x over player y and when pushed for reasoning they have little more than "because". Offseason is when we get to shelve that logic.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
News reports both yesterday and today indicate Manning is expected to sign with the Redskins. Interesting. Wherever he goes, he'll make the WRs/TEs better than they were.
There are a lot of questions, but according to the most recent reports its a matter of when, not if, he gets back on the field. So, to me even an 80% Manning has a decent shot at top 5 production. How many guys behind CP's list have that potential? For me, none. In fact, there are a few guys ahead of him that would shock me if they were to reach top 5. For that reason, Manning has more value to me. I don't really value a reliable guy that will give me low end QB1 production. I'd rather have the guy that is more risk, but actually gives me a shot at being a difference maker.
Tau837
Footballguy
Maybe I haven't read all the reports you are referencing that justify your stance. I know Manning's camp released a statement last week saying he is medically cleared to play, and some people have taken that to mean he is good to go or that it is a given that he will be at some point in time for next season.My understanding is that is not the case. I understand that being medically cleared means he can take a hit without greater than normal risk of (further) damage to his neck. That is certainly a good thing. But I also understand that he had this clearance prior to the end of the season.I believe the real issue here is related to the nerves in his neck and arm (tricep?). They have to regenerate properly for him to be able to play the way he has in the past. You may recall that a few weeks ago Bill Polian went on record as saying something to the effect that there is no surgery, no test, and no other mechanism by which to know if or when that nerve regeneration will ever happen. The statement released last week didn't address that at all.At this point, Irsay may have compromised motives, but the nerve issue is presumably the basis for him to respond as he did, saying Manning has not passed any Colts tests or physical yet.And there are the other issues, too: new organization, new coaching staff, new offense, new teammates, new home field (probably not a dome), and coming off a missed season at age 36. It is an extreme long shot that he'll ever be a top 10 caliber fantasy QB again, much less top 5.As a fan, I hope Manning heals and comes back strong. But based on what I've described here, I don't put a high percentage on that happening. I'll believe it when I read some reports that contradict what I've written here or when I see him on the field performing like he has in the past.Until then, IMO he belongs far down in any dynasty rankings. If a 36 year old QB is an extreme long shot to ever be top 5-10 again, there is no upside.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Tight ends have been added.
Of note are --
Low rankings for Clark IND (age 33 and no more Peyton make him just a guy whose time is almost up), Heap ARI, Fasano MIA, Watson CLE (all likely to be replaced as starters this season).
Ballard NYG is down due to revelation yesterday that he tore his ACL. Hard to rank higher since it's hard to know, once he's again healthy, if he'll still be prominent in NYG's plans.
Housler ARI I'm high on long term and this is actually a conservative ranking IMO. Once he takes over for Heap I'll be moving him up more.
Shiancoe MIN, Shockey CAR, and Carlson SEA are unranked. All are UFAs who may find their way back onto Tier 7 if they find a landing spot and role that makes them worth ranking.
DJ Williams GB is also unranked. Some on this board are high on him as a sleeper, but he's a 5th round guy with past issues who is stuck behind Finley (who isn't going anywhere, either with a new contract or the franchise tag) and that makes him pretty valueless unless something happens that I'm just not foreseeing.
Next up will be RB 2nd pass, sometime from 2/11-15, and UFA/RFA designations for all positions when RBs are posted.
Of note are --
Low rankings for Clark IND (age 33 and no more Peyton make him just a guy whose time is almost up), Heap ARI, Fasano MIA, Watson CLE (all likely to be replaced as starters this season).
Ballard NYG is down due to revelation yesterday that he tore his ACL. Hard to rank higher since it's hard to know, once he's again healthy, if he'll still be prominent in NYG's plans.
Housler ARI I'm high on long term and this is actually a conservative ranking IMO. Once he takes over for Heap I'll be moving him up more.
Shiancoe MIN, Shockey CAR, and Carlson SEA are unranked. All are UFAs who may find their way back onto Tier 7 if they find a landing spot and role that makes them worth ranking.
DJ Williams GB is also unranked. Some on this board are high on him as a sleeper, but he's a 5th round guy with past issues who is stuck behind Finley (who isn't going anywhere, either with a new contract or the franchise tag) and that makes him pretty valueless unless something happens that I'm just not foreseeing.
Next up will be RB 2nd pass, sometime from 2/11-15, and UFA/RFA designations for all positions when RBs are posted.
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
Also I should mention I have real concerns about Fred Davis. My confidence level has him lower than his stats perhaps would indicate. He's one more violation away from a year long suspension, and a bit of a fool who is a real risk for effing up again. This has dropped him down from, say, TE7 or 8 or so.
Gresham I have higher than other rankings I've seen. He's an ascendant player who is working with an ascendant QB, and with Simpson and Caldwell exiting, more focus will be on him.
Gresham I have higher than other rankings I've seen. He's an ascendant player who is working with an ascendant QB, and with Simpson and Caldwell exiting, more focus will be on him.
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EBF
Footballguy
I like the Gresham rating. I've got him in a few leagues and I realized that there are hardly any TEs I would trade him for straight up. His production has been solid and he's still very young. Perhaps more importantly, I think he has as much raw talent as almost anyone.
I won't be driving the Graham/Gronk hype train this offseason. I think both had flukey years and will regress to varying degrees.
I won't be driving the Graham/Gronk hype train this offseason. I think both had flukey years and will regress to varying degrees.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Rudolph is much too low. I'd have him somewhere in tier 4 at least. Even if you disagree with the exact ranking, having him ranked below Kendricks is indefensible.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
I don't know much about Rudolph but I watched more Rams games than I should have and Kendricks seemed to drop a lot of passes. He was a rookie, guys can drop passes and still be productive, and so on and so forth. But toward the end of the year even the St. Louis announcers were commenting that was a frequent problem for him. Just something to bear in mind.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I admittedly don't know enough about Rudolph. I do know both were 2nd round picks, 4 picks apart, and that Kendricks has a better QB throwing the ball. I looked at both guys' college stats too, and saw some nice games for both but no monster overall totals for either, and a lot of missed time by Rudolph due to injury.When I do my 2nd pass for TEs I'll investigate more. Learning is part of the process and I'm not afraid to be open to being wrong if it means getting it right.That said, I'd be hard pressed to move him into that 4th tier with productive fantasy starters when Rudolph has done nothing so far and the scrap heap is piled high with former college players who had better college careers and more advance hype. So I'm open to moving him up, but promising nothing at this point.
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Tau837
Footballguy
IMO there is some pretty compelling stuff that backs my stance on Manning in this thread: Manning can't throw to his left.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I've felt the need to put a disclaimer at the top of the first post based on a couple of things that have happened since the list was posted. Thanks.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
You could also add, "I won't blindly follow my rankings and ignore players' perceived value in the markets when making trades."I'm still pretty positive on Felix Jones and expect that he'll add plenty of VBD+ over the rest of his career, for example. But there's no way I'd trade a lot of guys I rank behind Felix to land him at this point. I'd only buy him at a smallish premium above his market value.
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
Very good point. Thanks for that addition.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thank you for the rankings. I have seen a few of your teams around and they are always toward the top and loaded with talent, so I value your opinion on players.I too have to question your ranking on Cam, and the notion that his rushing numbers "have to" or are likely to drop. The Panthers ran the same play at the goal line most of the time: Shotgun, option read. In order for his rushing TDs to drop, that has to change. I don't think it is logical to assume that it will. The Panthers, in running that play, simply give the defense too much to account for. Two RB caliber runners (Cam and the RB), going two different directions, one of which can throw. That play hasn't been stopped with any regularity, nor has Cam taken major hits in running it. Unless the play changes, one would have to assume his goal line TDs stay consistent. There is a solid sample size to show that Cam scores on roughly half (a bit more, actually) of the TDs that are a product of that play. Now, the longer TD runs came from Cam scrambling, with the exception of one that I remember. That certainly won't change. He is already very conservative in deciding to run. On top of this, we have to assume his passing TDs increase, as will the number of TDs the offense produces as a unit. Some of the possessions that would have resulted in a TD run, will be replaced by TD passes, but it will balance out, in my opinion. Cam Newton's rookie season produced more PPG than the 3 year average of any QB currently playing, including Brees/Rodgers/Brady. And he threw for a very moderate amount of TD passes. Also, I don't think it is a given that those you listed are better passing QBs than Newton, long term. He threw for more passing yards than any QB ever and posted a very solid YPC - higher than Stafford's. He had bouts of accuracy issues, but most do. His accuracy was not the problem it was predicted to be, and I don't think it is wise to put restrictions on his potential as a passer.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I really like your ranking of Dwayne Bowe and agree that he is a WR1. What he has done without a WR2 worthy of a defense's respect is remarkable. His TDs will rise this year, with Charles and Cassell (IMO) returning, and he will put up WR1 numbers again.
Harivn is really high for my tastes. He gets his numbers when he is the lone play-maker. A healhty AP/NFL-worthy WR1/2 will hurt him. He will come back down to earth.
Nelson over Cruz is a bit surprising. Nelson seemed to get open a lot, but Cruz seemed to make special plays.
You seem low on Jake Locker. I would gladly take a chance on him than invest in the likes of Kolb and Palmer.
Good to see you haven't given up on Kendricks.
I think Kyle Rudolph will shoot up everyone's lists very soon. Do you not believe in his talent? He was the top TE picked, made some awesome catches, and is projected to start next season.
Harivn is really high for my tastes. He gets his numbers when he is the lone play-maker. A healhty AP/NFL-worthy WR1/2 will hurt him. He will come back down to earth.
Nelson over Cruz is a bit surprising. Nelson seemed to get open a lot, but Cruz seemed to make special plays.
You seem low on Jake Locker. I would gladly take a chance on him than invest in the likes of Kolb and Palmer.
Good to see you haven't given up on Kendricks.
I think Kyle Rudolph will shoot up everyone's lists very soon. Do you not believe in his talent? He was the top TE picked, made some awesome catches, and is projected to start next season.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Initial sense is I'd put him somewhere after #4 Brees and before #10 Ryan. Where, I don't know yet. All the experts seem to agree on his potential stardom so who am I to argue, yet you can only put him so high before he shows anything at the next level. A lot of can't miss QBs have missed, so expectations have to be tempered at least somewhat. Ultimately it'll depend on each FF owner's risk tolerance, because if he's the next P Manning like some are predicting, look out. Then again, who was taken right after Manning in the same draft at #2 overall? Ryan Leaf.I'm having a hard time finding time this week to work on the rankings but I'm trying (I work two jobs, one is taking a lot of time again lately), and at some point in the next 2-3 weeks I'll be slotting in the prominent rookies after I've done my 2nd pass through the positions.'Gandalf said:
EBF
Footballguy
I'd put Luck at 3 or 4. I couldn't take him ahead of Rodgers or Newton. I'm not sure I could pass on him for Brees or Stafford.
I have seen a ton of Luck. He's a great QB. Very smart and efficient. I'll be surprised if he's any worse than Matt Ryan. It's just very, very hard for me to imagine him being any worse than that. He doesn't carry any character risk whatsoever and he has a quiet competitiveness. He loves the game and will work hard to maximize his ability. There's just nothing about him that says bust at all.
So for me his range of potential NFL outcomes is Matt Ryan ----- Peyton Manning. When you factor in his age, he becomes a pretty attractive commodity. No, he isn't the safe bet that Brees and Brady are, but then again he's not 33+ years old either. IF he lives up to the hype, you've got a perennial top 6-8 QB (or better) for the next 12-15 years. That's big.
I have seen a ton of Luck. He's a great QB. Very smart and efficient. I'll be surprised if he's any worse than Matt Ryan. It's just very, very hard for me to imagine him being any worse than that. He doesn't carry any character risk whatsoever and he has a quiet competitiveness. He loves the game and will work hard to maximize his ability. There's just nothing about him that says bust at all.
So for me his range of potential NFL outcomes is Matt Ryan ----- Peyton Manning. When you factor in his age, he becomes a pretty attractive commodity. No, he isn't the safe bet that Brees and Brady are, but then again he's not 33+ years old either. IF he lives up to the hype, you've got a perennial top 6-8 QB (or better) for the next 12-15 years. That's big.
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Gandalf
Footballguy
Makes sense. I suppose RG3 is more of a risk and question of where he lands, but I'm curious about your thoughts on him. Is it possible that he is actually the better dynasty fantasy qb? Maybe more risk/reward? Would he be in the 5-8 vicinity?
EBF
Footballguy
I don't think so. Some people might say he has more upside because of his running skills, but Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning are the best QBs in recent FF history and it's not because of their running skills. A quarterback ultimately lives or dies based on his ability to throw the ball. Sure, you can fluke your way to a decent FF season solely because of running (see: Tim Tebow, Vince Young), but it's not a recipe for long term success.
I think you can pretty much throw RG3's running ability out the window. It will make some difference, but not enough to carry him if he fails as a passer. He put up great passing stats in college and showed enough arm strength and accuracy to make you think he can do some of the same things in the NFL. I just see him as a riskier prospect than Luck. I can't see Luck busting. I think RG3 is probably the real deal as well, but I think there's more risk. He didn't play in a pro style offense, his competition was really weak, and he had Kendall Wright to help pump up his stats.
Taking everything into account, I prefer Luck because he has a higher floor. That doesn't mean RG3 can't be a star. It's not like they can't both succeed. We've seen numerous classes that have produced multiple superstar players at the same position. This could be another situation like that. Griffin is still a premium prospect for me.
I think you can pretty much throw RG3's running ability out the window. It will make some difference, but not enough to carry him if he fails as a passer. He put up great passing stats in college and showed enough arm strength and accuracy to make you think he can do some of the same things in the NFL. I just see him as a riskier prospect than Luck. I can't see Luck busting. I think RG3 is probably the real deal as well, but I think there's more risk. He didn't play in a pro style offense, his competition was really weak, and he had Kendall Wright to help pump up his stats.
Taking everything into account, I prefer Luck because he has a higher floor. That doesn't mean RG3 can't be a star. It's not like they can't both succeed. We've seen numerous classes that have produced multiple superstar players at the same position. This could be another situation like that. Griffin is still a premium prospect for me.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I know you're down on Stafford, but valuing an unproven Luck over him seems off. Luck is only 1.5 years younger. By the time Luck matures into a proven commodity, if he does, Stafford will probably have two more seasons of top 5 production under his belt. It's not like Luck is going to be a staple of a dynasty team for 5+ years after Stafford retires.Even with your prediction that Stafford will come back to earth from his 5,000+ 40+ season, which he will at least somewhat, there aren't any guarantees Luck can consistently outperform 4,000+ and 30+ on a season to season basis. I can't see a scenario where a healthy Stafford is under those numbers as long as Calvin Johnson is on his team.Put another way:Over the course of the next five seasons, which is roughly the time I expect most dynasty leagues to last, I'm fairly certain Matthew Stafford will score more fantasy points than Andrew Luck.
