Hilts
Footballguy
This entire exchange started because you said "Dude you’re nucking futs! Bortles and Flacco over Wilson?"
How can you definitively know one is better when you refuse to pay attention to what is happening from the other parties?
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QB Russell Wilson, PIT (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter ImTheScientist
- Start date
How can you definitively know one is better when you refuse to pay attention to what is happening from the other parties?
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Right, because Wilson has proven to be a top 5 QB (usually top 3) and Flacco and Bortles suck in my humble opinion. It wasn't even you who CUT Wilson which is where my response was aimed... at the poster who cut Wilson. So you just like argue and/or pretend you're smart on the internet? Flacco is the worst starting QB I've seen in a long time - I would never even roster Flacco. Bortles is better than he was 2 years ago, but still not a QB I'd rely on and Wilson should not be cut to make room for either of them- again, in my humble opinion. What do you want from me besides to argue? It wasn't even you who dropped Wilson but yet, here you are trying to prove some point about what... I don't know.
chad in Indy
Footballguy
Yes Wilson is a gamer. But as already stated, he has been historically bad against LA (both away AND at home). Yes, Wilson has a tendency to start slow to a season, but Seattle has continued to take away or not replace his weapons.
Last year: a healthy Baldwin, Lockett, P. Richardson, J. Graham, and a pass-catching RB in McKissic to help. Even Prosise contributed
This year: an injured Baldwin, Dissley was filling in nicely, but that is gone. Brandon Marshall is done. Jaron Brown has not been what Seattle hoped. and still no run game.
Your hopes rely on Seattle mirroring the Vikings who roll out Diggs, Thielen and Rudolph??? Not seeing it. I'm a Wilson fan and have been waiting to buy low on him. But this year looks like a hard pass.
Counter point. New Hawks coaching staff likes to run it. Back to back 100 yard rushes with heavy work load.
Wilson traditionally get 4 point with his legs now only getting 1 as coaches want him in pocket more.
Missing some weapons from last year.
Always plays bad against the Rams. Seems he has title against interior pass rush
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Good points from both above. I’m not pretending to know the future. This all started when someone dropped Wilson for Flacco or Bortles. I think that’s silly. Could I be wrong? Absolutely! I won’t be dropping Wilson and will ride him to victory or defeat. Best of luck to all.
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
Awww. Are you fellas fighting over little ol' me? I'm touched. 
Chaka
Footballguy
I think it is pretty clear that @Rhythmdoctor is taking the long view. On that I agree with him, Wilson is a far better bet to finish top 5 than Bortles or Flacco.
However this season has started off incredibly wonky for QBs (their stats are through the roof across the board) and it confuses the picture in both the near and long term.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The big question is if he'll start running again. His passing numbers haven't been great but they've been good enough. He's on pace to finish with 3600/28 passing which is fine if you're supplementing it with 600/3 rushing like he did the other years where he was a top fantasy QB. But this year he's on pace for 160/0 rushing which is not going to get it done.
I think second half of season he gets turned loose when coaches realize they can't win with him in the pocket. His matchups are also much better after his bye. That said think the Rams and his bye he needs another qb. Smith and Bortles are good choices for this week and Smith has good matchups his other weeks too
Tau837
Footballguy
Right now, he is playing through a hamstring injury, so that is affecting his ability and willingness to run.FreeBaGeL said:
It also seems like Carroll and Schottenheimer are making a concerted effort to try to force him to play from the pocket, with no RPO or called running plays. Not even any plays to move the pocket in the plays I have watched. I don't know why they want this, but if they continue, it will certainly tend to limit Wilson's rushing production.
Hilts
Footballguy
Wait a second. Why are you attacking me for questioning your reasoning? Don't accuse me of just trying to pretend I'm being smart because I asked you to support your rationale. The entire reason we're on this forum is to argue. Not to just shout opinions, but to hold discussions on WHY we feel that way. Sure there are some posters who just storm into a thread and shout their opinion with zero basis, but I'm a fan of your work and you haven't generally been of that sort. So it's perfectly reasonable to ask you to explain yourself.
And again, if you want to tout Russell Wilson that's fine. You made some good points. But good points on one player do not automatically equal negative points on another player. Especially when you immediately dismiss the guys while fully admitting you have done no research on them. Maybe argue why Wilson is great and ask for their reasons why they went with Flacco or Bortles. But to simply dismiss it entirely out of hand and trash them without being open to hearing what any data is saying are some traits I'd expect out of lesser posters. Yeah, I questioned this line of reasoning because not doing so is how we've slowly eroded from guys like SSOG and others of yesteryear to a much higher percent of people just shouting 'player x sucks!'
As for discussing Wilson himself, I think you bring up some great points. I'd like to address some of them plus a few others.
I'm going to dismiss the Wilson being a gamer aspect because I don't know how to address that. I'll give you him playing at home. Players often perform better at home, and Wilson is no exception. But last year in week 15, against the Rams in his home stadium, he had a QBR of 71.8 while passing for 142 yards and a touchdown in a 42-7 defeat.
Baldwin being healthy is a huge plus. I'm not sure how healthy he actually is, but I'd definitely put this in the plus column.
SEA has had a weak running game all year and yet he's still been pretty lousy. Sure, he's going to be mostly responsible for anything good that is done but that could be a pretty small pie we're slicing from.
I agree Rams losing a defensive back helps. As does Seattle losing some defenders (should be easier for LA to score, which might lead to a shootout and Wilson needing to turn it on to keep up)
Some other reasons to be nervous:
Right now he's on pace for less than 200 yards rushing for the season. Even when he was hurting with a bunch of injuries in 2016 he did better than that.
He's dealing with a hamstring injury. Fairly minor? Yeah, probably. But it doesn't fill you with hope the scrambling is going to return.
The Rams lead the NFL in pressuring the quarterback (by percent. by total number they're 4th).
Brian Schottenheimer.
In the long view I still like Wilson. But by long view I mean I'm putting him as a fringe starter until he's had his bye week (week 7).
Anyhow, here's a very interesting piece arguing Seattle's offensive line problems aren't really from their offensive line, but from Russell Wilson himself. If you don't have insider the tldr version is their line gives above average time despite the popular narratives. http://www.espn.com/nfl/blogs/insider/story/_/id/24883431/seattle-seahawks-secret-offensive-line-problem-russell-wilson-new-stat-shows-proof-2018-nfl
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Good post and I appreciate your desire to know why. That's a very fair ask and I apologize for coming off rude. Everyone has their good and bad days.Wait a second. Why are you attacking me for questioning your reasoning? Don't accuse me of just trying to pretend I'm being smart because I asked you to support your rationale. The entire reason we're on this forum is to argue. Not to just shout opinions, but to hold discussions on WHY we feel that way. Sure there are some posters who just storm into a thread and shout their opinion with zero basis, but I'm a fan of your work and you haven't generally been of that sort. So it's perfectly reasonable to ask you to explain yourself.
And again, if you want to tout Russell Wilson that's fine. You made some good points. But good points on one player do not automatically equal negative points on another player. Especially when you immediately dismiss the guys while fully admitting you have done no research on them. Maybe argue why Wilson is great and ask for their reasons why they went with Flacco or Bortles. But to simply dismiss it entirely out of hand and trash them without being open to hearing what any data is saying are some traits I'd expect out of lesser posters. Yeah, I questioned this line of reasoning because not doing so is how we've slowly eroded from guys like SSOG and others of yesteryear to a much higher percent of people just shouting 'player x sucks!'
As for discussing Wilson himself, I think you bring up some great points. I'd like to address some of them plus a few others.
I'm going to dismiss the Wilson being a gamer aspect because I don't know how to address that. I'll give you him playing at home. Players often perform better at home, and Wilson is no exception. But last year in week 15, against the Rams in his home stadium, he had a QBR of 71.8 while passing for 142 yards and a touchdown in a 42-7 defeat.
Baldwin being healthy is a huge plus. I'm not sure how healthy he actually is, but I'd definitely put this in the plus column.
SEA has had a weak running game all year and yet he's still been pretty lousy. Sure, he's going to be mostly responsible for anything good that is done but that could be a pretty small pie we're slicing from.
I agree Rams losing a defensive back helps. As does Seattle losing some defenders (should be easier for LA to score, which might lead to a shootout and Wilson needing to turn it on to keep up)
Some other reasons to be nervous:
Right now he's on pace for less than 200 yards rushing for the season. Even when he was hurting with a bunch of injuries in 2016 he did better than that.
He's dealing with a hamstring injury. Fairly minor? Yeah, probably. But it doesn't fill you with hope the scrambling is going to return.
The Rams lead the NFL in pressuring the quarterback (by percent. by total number they're 4th).
Brian Schottenheimer.
In the long view I still like Wilson. But by long view I mean I'm putting him as a fringe starter until he's had his bye week (week 7).
Anyhow, here's a very interesting piece arguing Seattle's offensive line problems aren't really from their offensive line, but from Russell Wilson himself. If you don't have insider the tldr version is their line gives above average time despite the popular narratives. http://www.espn.com/nfl/blogs/insider/story/_/id/24883431/seattle-seahawks-secret-offensive-line-problem-russell-wilson-new-stat-shows-proof-2018-nfl
Hilts
Footballguy
No worries, I didn't handle it ideally on my end either. Here's hoping Wilson can get back on track sooner rather than later.
ratbast
Footballguy
Well I’m benching him for anyone until he gets back on track. This year seems different. I’m not betting he will be top 10. Baldwin and Locket aren’t enough to get top 5. He’ll need better oline play, his defense to give him good field position and a 3rd weapon to rise up. That’s allot of needs.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
Funnily enough I have Flacco as well as Wilson but not sure I have the stones to bench Wilsonratbast said:
Hilts
Footballguy
The good:
3 touchdowns.
The running game looked good, so teams will need to defend against that moving forward.
The bad:
First time in his career he had zero rushing attempts. He averaged almost 6 attempts per game last year. If that goes, he loses a couple points per game.
The running game. If it's going this well they're going to pass a lot less, even with an awful defense.
He only had 21 attempts on the day.
He's averaging about 10 fewer attempts this year per game.
I'm still holding through the bye, but there are very real reasons to be concerned here imo.
3 touchdowns.
The running game looked good, so teams will need to defend against that moving forward.
The bad:
First time in his career he had zero rushing attempts. He averaged almost 6 attempts per game last year. If that goes, he loses a couple points per game.
The running game. If it's going this well they're going to pass a lot less, even with an awful defense.
He only had 21 attempts on the day.
He's averaging about 10 fewer attempts this year per game.
I'm still holding through the bye, but there are very real reasons to be concerned here imo.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
They ran the zone read probably 15 times and it didn't look like he ever even thought about keeping the ball. May as well just have been a straight handoff. There's got to be something up that he is running so so little this year, but it is definitely concerning.
I am less concerned about this part of it than the rushing attempts. His splits each of the last two years were very low pass attempts through the first 5-7 weeks of the season, and then TONS of pass attempts the second half of the season. He actually has more attempts so far this season than he did at this point either of the last two years.
As was mentioned in another thread, it seems like Seattle is still dreaming of the Lynch days and enters every year thinking they can just run and play defense, before they finally realize half way though the year that those days are gone and the only way they are going to squeak into the playoffs is to let Wilson sling it around 35 times per game. At 2-3 it seems like they're right on schedule to do that again this year.
Hilts
Footballguy
I agree that's one reason for continued optimism. This is the the biggest reason I'm still holding him. I'll see if I can find it, but someone on reddit showed he has a history of performing at an elite level after week 7. But there's always the whole past performance being no guarantee of future performance.
Plus they didn't have Schottenheimer in past seasons, and Pete specifically touted the run heavy philosophy as being one of the main reasons they hired him.
Tau837
Footballguy
I posted this previously - he has been playing through a hamstring injury the past few weeks.
Location doesn't matter. Think until Russell runs and throws I can't start him anymore. His touchdowns percentage is not sustainable.
Hoping it was good hamstring limiting him as he has the bye to heal up after this game. Then also Dickson comes back
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
I've started Wilson every week he's been available and the lack of rushing yardage is annoying but he's not costing me games (22.4 avg in my league). Three straight games of 3 TDs is great and what I hoped for when drafting him.
However, versus San Diego feels like a benching for me. I haven't seen any of their games, though. What are y'all doing?
However, versus San Diego feels like a benching for me. I haven't seen any of their games, though. What are y'all doing?
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
In the one league I own him, I will likely not start him this week and will go with Goff instead.
Wrigley
Footballguy
FWIW, for his career, Wilson has averaged 18.4 PPG in the first half of the season (weeks 1-8; 52 career games), and 22.2 PPG in the second half (weeks 9-17; 51 games).
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
the winston debacle has made it simple for me, rwilson rest of season...
Hilts
Footballguy
The trouble is he's not passing much, and I'm not sure how comfortable we should be with him getting 2-3 touchdowns from only 20 attempts.
Their running game has been too good. Part of that may be due to a relatively weak schedule. As they face more offensive minded teams like LA this weekend, we may get a Wilson who has to carry the team. But make no mistake this team is content to run the ball 50 times if they could.
Their running game has been too good. Part of that may be due to a relatively weak schedule. As they face more offensive minded teams like LA this weekend, we may get a Wilson who has to carry the team. But make no mistake this team is content to run the ball 50 times if they could.
They want to run run run, and NOT with Wilson.
Double whammy.
20 passes with 8-10 rushes would probably work out OK. 20 with 1-2 rushes, not so much.
Hilts
Footballguy
That's kind of misleading. He was again having a mediocre day. They were again losing in the fourth quarter and running the ball. They only let him lose from sheer desperation at the end. That's not something we should count on regularly. He had 26 pass attempts and 176 passing yards. You think they're going to need to do that against Sf (weeks 13 & 15)? Minnesota in week 14?
Owners should still be nervous.
Owners should still be nervous.
This guy is defying the laws of statistics. Low volume passing, but continually throwing 3 TDs.
And now running the ball more.
With my Fitz crashing and burning (yet again), I see him in waivers. Playing at home against GB. Seems like a decent spot...
...for him to regress to the statistical norm after I decide to pick him up and start him.
And now running the ball more.
With my Fitz crashing and burning (yet again), I see him in waivers. Playing at home against GB. Seems like a decent spot...
...for him to regress to the statistical norm after I decide to pick him up and start him.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
That's kind of been his M.O. though since the defense got bad and he became a top fantasy option.
Last year he did exactly that and it left him the dynasty QB1 coming into this year. He only threw for 300 yards thrice all of last year. He threw 26 TDs in the 2nd half of games vs. just 8 in the first half. 19 of them in the 4th quarter (7 in the 3rd, 4 in the 2nd, 4 in the 1st). Only 59 rushing yards in the 1st quarter but almost 400 on the 2nd half.
Bad defense and Russ running around like a chicken with his head cut off in the 4th quarter is exactly what made him the consensus #1/#2 fantasy QB before the year. A long ways to go obviously but good to at least see him getting back to that a little.
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Hilts
Footballguy
Seattle isn't a bad defense these days. They're a top ten unit.
Last year they had 553 passing attempts. This year they have 247 through 9 games. They're on pace for more than 100 fewer attempts this year than last year. The fewest attempts since 2013.
People still don't seem to be giving the offensive coordinator change the full weight it's due. They have no interest in passing. I think they might be forced to do so against Green Bay this week, but I don't think it's likely they'll have to do so against most of their remaining opponents.
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
Wilson or Luck. Seems a no brainier with Luck but Tenn D looks quite legit.
If I had Luck, don't think I could sit him. On a roll. They do nothing but throw.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
I'm going with Wilson.
The Titans really run the clock. They've run the 4th fewest plays in the league, but their drives average 3:02 mins (2nd longest behind the Saints).
Both games have the same total, but I can see TEN just keeping the ball out of Luck's hands. On the other hand GB can keep the game moving.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
I've got Wilson tonight or Dak with a nice matchup vs Atlanta. Right now I'm rolling with Wilson.
This game could go so many ways.
Both teams really want to run. A. Jones against the SEA run D is a GB advantage and we know SEA wants to pound Carson/Davis/Penny. The game COULD be relatively low scoring if both run games get going.
Also think it's more likely that SEA gets up on GB vs. vice versa and Rodgers is chasing. Would be ideal if GB got up, but kinda don't see that taking place. Wilson chasing from behind always seems to lead to crazy stats especially on the ground.
Leaning Wilson right now over Mariota. I need floor vs. ceiling this week. Wilson seems "safe" but not terribly sexy.
Have same decision and going with Luck. My thought process is the following:
1) Luck at home
2) Tenn had their best game of the season in every facet. Thinking they might let down this week.
3) Opportunity, opportunity - Luck throws more the Wilson
4) Wilson has garner much of his stats playing from behind. What if Seat gets up this week, we can expect a heavy does of running and not from Wilson.
5) Weather - Cold weather for tonight vs indoor favors more running tonight....
Chaka
Footballguy
Debating Rivers or Wilson this week. Both guys similar in regards to low pass attempts but the TDs are there. Wilson brings the rushing stats that Rivers doesn’t, but I feel like Rivers is a more reliable in the TD department (only QB with multiple passing TDs each week). Right now leaning Rivers on more of a gut feel, but will probably flip flop a couple times before kickoff tonight.
JIMGET
Footballguy
I would probably play Rivers, but his record and stats against denver over the last 5 years is not good at all.
Yeah I thought of that. While their d is still decent, it’s not at the same level it has been the past few years.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
I like this.stlrams said:
sho nuff
Footballguy
Have the same decision...but Rivers FF numbers against Denver last year were pretty good...and Wilson hasn't exactly had great numbers vs. GB looking at their histories.
Im leaning Rivers just as I think they have the better offense and GB has actually been ok against opposing QBs FF wise this year.
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