Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Ignoratio Elenchi

***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread

Recommended Posts

I don't like uniqueness for uniqueness's sake, but I definitely believe in having a plausible narrative. I want to look at my team and ask "what has to happen for me to win this thing?". The less complicated and more plausible the answer, the better. That was the philosophy behind my team- lots of commonly owned players (because they're good value), plus a Vick + Stewart kicker. My narrative is "If Vick and Stewart go off, I've got this sewn up". In my opinion, that is a plausible enough narrative (both players have talent and a history of going off), so I'm happy with my squad. I don't think it's very likely, but in a contest of 13,000, even a 0.1% chance to win it all is huge.

I think that's a healthy approach, though I'm sure I can look at any entry (well, any reasonably well-constructed entry) and construct a plausible narrative for them to win. If there was some issue with a bunch of entries all being remarkably similar, then uniqueness might play more of a role in determining a winner. But I'm convinced that every entry is sufficiently unique to win, even if it contains many commonly-owned players. The guy who won the $20,000 last year did so in part because Matt Stafford put up ridiculous numbers in weeks 15 and 16, and he was the #1 most commonly-owned player to start the year and was on over 50% of the final 250 rosters. He used Aaron Hernandez all three weeks in the finals, the 15th most popular choice last year and on a third of the final 250 rosters. Roddy White and Calvin Johnson made significant contributions and they were found on 12.4 and 9.2% of the final rosters, respectively. When Antonio Brown went off for 26 points in week 14, 53% of the field owned him. When Lance Moore matched that total in week 15, 35% of the field owned him. Of course, he also got points from lesser-owned players as well, but they didn't count any extra. He won because he put up a cumulative total of over 600 points - 80 of which came from Stafford, 80 from Roddy White, 60 from Hernandez, 60 from Calvin, etc. to go along with the 50 he got from Spiller (1.2% owned) and 35 from Deangelo (3.2% owned). Obviously this is just a single example, but I think it highlights that it's not critical to go out of your way to ensure uniqueness on your team, especially when you can't predict ownership stats anyway. He won, not because he was "more unique" than any other entry in the contest, but because the players he chose happened to put up a bunch of points when he needed them to.
I find this discussion fascinating, and one player that comes to mind is Cedric Benson. He's by far the least unique player owned. But I think it's crazy to pass up a bargain like that. Honestly, I don't know how you build a team hoping you're more unique than the other contestants. What are you going to do? Pass up on a great value because he'll be widely owned?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't like uniqueness for uniqueness's sake, but I definitely believe in having a plausible narrative. I want to look at my team and ask "what has to happen for me to win this thing?". The less complicated and more plausible the answer, the better. That was the philosophy behind my team- lots of commonly owned players (because they're good value), plus a Vick + Stewart kicker. My narrative is "If Vick and Stewart go off, I've got this sewn up". In my opinion, that is a plausible enough narrative (both players have talent and a history of going off), so I'm happy with my squad. I don't think it's very likely, but in a contest of 13,000, even a 0.1% chance to win it all is huge.

I think that's a healthy approach, though I'm sure I can look at any entry (well, any reasonably well-constructed entry) and construct a plausible narrative for them to win. If there was some issue with a bunch of entries all being remarkably similar, then uniqueness might play more of a role in determining a winner. But I'm convinced that every entry is sufficiently unique to win, even if it contains many commonly-owned players. The guy who won the $20,000 last year did so in part because Matt Stafford put up ridiculous numbers in weeks 15 and 16, and he was the #1 most commonly-owned player to start the year and was on over 50% of the final 250 rosters. He used Aaron Hernandez all three weeks in the finals, the 15th most popular choice last year and on a third of the final 250 rosters. Roddy White and Calvin Johnson made significant contributions and they were found on 12.4 and 9.2% of the final rosters, respectively. When Antonio Brown went off for 26 points in week 14, 53% of the field owned him. When Lance Moore matched that total in week 15, 35% of the field owned him. Of course, he also got points from lesser-owned players as well, but they didn't count any extra. He won because he put up a cumulative total of over 600 points - 80 of which came from Stafford, 80 from Roddy White, 60 from Hernandez, 60 from Calvin, etc. to go along with the 50 he got from Spiller (1.2% owned) and 35 from Deangelo (3.2% owned). Obviously this is just a single example, but I think it highlights that it's not critical to go out of your way to ensure uniqueness on your team, especially when you can't predict ownership stats anyway. He won, not because he was "more unique" than any other entry in the contest, but because the players he chose happened to put up a bunch of points when he needed them to.
I find this discussion fascinating, and one player that comes to mind is Cedric Benson. He's by far the least unique player owned. But I think it's crazy to pass up a bargain like that. Honestly, I don't know how you build a team hoping you're more unique than the other contestants. What are you going to do? Pass up on a great value because he'll be widely owned?
I'm sure it's more nuanced than that. I don't think people are looking at the entry form and saying, "Benson will be on a lot of rosters. DO NOT WANT." It's more like, "Hmm, I want a RB in the $20-25 range, I have these guys all projected around the same amount of points, but I think a lot of people are going to take RBs A and B so I'm going to take RB C just to create some separation from the pack." I think in that sense there's nothing wrong with the strategy, except (1) there's probably a reason everyone's taking A and B and not taking C (perhaps they are better values for the price?) and (2) uniqueness, while potentially useful if you make the final 250, may actually work against you during the regular season when you don't need to come out on top, you just need to stay above the cut line each week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't like uniqueness for uniqueness's sake, but I definitely believe in having a plausible narrative. I want to look at my team and ask "what has to happen for me to win this thing?". The less complicated and more plausible the answer, the better. That was the philosophy behind my team- lots of commonly owned players (because they're good value), plus a Vick + Stewart kicker. My narrative is "If Vick and Stewart go off, I've got this sewn up". In my opinion, that is a plausible enough narrative (both players have talent and a history of going off), so I'm happy with my squad. I don't think it's very likely, but in a contest of 13,000, even a 0.1% chance to win it all is huge.

I think that's a healthy approach, though I'm sure I can look at any entry (well, any reasonably well-constructed entry) and construct a plausible narrative for them to win. If there was some issue with a bunch of entries all being remarkably similar, then uniqueness might play more of a role in determining a winner. But I'm convinced that every entry is sufficiently unique to win, even if it contains many commonly-owned players. The guy who won the $20,000 last year did so in part because Matt Stafford put up ridiculous numbers in weeks 15 and 16, and he was the #1 most commonly-owned player to start the year and was on over 50% of the final 250 rosters. He used Aaron Hernandez all three weeks in the finals, the 15th most popular choice last year and on a third of the final 250 rosters. Roddy White and Calvin Johnson made significant contributions and they were found on 12.4 and 9.2% of the final rosters, respectively. When Antonio Brown went off for 26 points in week 14, 53% of the field owned him. When Lance Moore matched that total in week 15, 35% of the field owned him. Of course, he also got points from lesser-owned players as well, but they didn't count any extra. He won because he put up a cumulative total of over 600 points - 80 of which came from Stafford, 80 from Roddy White, 60 from Hernandez, 60 from Calvin, etc. to go along with the 50 he got from Spiller (1.2% owned) and 35 from Deangelo (3.2% owned). Obviously this is just a single example, but I think it highlights that it's not critical to go out of your way to ensure uniqueness on your team, especially when you can't predict ownership stats anyway. He won, not because he was "more unique" than any other entry in the contest, but because the players he chose happened to put up a bunch of points when he needed them to.
I find this discussion fascinating, and one player that comes to mind is Cedric Benson. He's by far the least unique player owned. But I think it's crazy to pass up a bargain like that. Honestly, I don't know how you build a team hoping you're more unique than the other contestants. What are you going to do? Pass up on a great value because he'll be widely owned?
I'm sure it's more nuanced than that. I don't think people are looking at the entry form and saying, "Benson will be on a lot of rosters. DO NOT WANT." It's more like, "Hmm, I want a RB in the $20-25 range, I have these guys all projected around the same amount of points, but I think a lot of people are going to take RBs A and B so I'm going to take RB C just to create some separation from the pack." I think in that sense there's nothing wrong with the strategy, except (1) there's probably a reason everyone's taking A and B and not taking C (perhaps they are better values for the price?) and (2) uniqueness, while potentially useful if you make the final 250, may actually work against you during the regular season when you don't need to come out on top, you just need to stay above the cut line each week.
I can't argue with that. I guess the way I like to build these teams is to look for value at the position more than wondering about ownership. I believe that Brandon Pettigrew at $15 is going to outproduce Vernon Davis at $17, and that's the only way I can imagine putting these teams together.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sure it's more nuanced than that. I don't think people are looking at the entry form and saying, "Benson will be on a lot of rosters. DO NOT WANT." It's more like, "Hmm, I want a RB in the $20-25 range, I have these guys all projected around the same amount of points, but I think a lot of people are going to take RBs A and B so I'm going to take RB C just to create some separation from the pack." I think in that sense there's nothing wrong with the strategy, except (1) there's probably a reason everyone's taking A and B and not taking C (perhaps they are better values for the price?) and (2) uniqueness, while potentially useful if you make the final 250, may actually work against you during the regular season when you don't need to come out on top, you just need to stay above the cut line each week.

This. I think some people are confusing an increased uniqueness with an increased number of "flyers". When I think of someone "trying" to build in extra uniqueness to their team, I think of a person choosing a less hyped player of the same caliber. Think A.J. Green over Julio Jones. I find the discussion interesting, but it's theoretical at best. Any attempt to alter the lineup you think is the highest possible scoring lineup for the sake of uniqueness is a mistake, imo. If you truly think 2 players are equal and want to take the more unique one, fine, but don't expect that uniqueness to necessarily carry over to week 14.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've never added uniqueness to the equation when picking out my lineup. By the time I get bye weeks, good values, playoff schedule and players I like sorted out, there aren't enough players left to include uniqueness. I'd have to sacrafice one of the other factors which I'm not willing to do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

QB

Peyton Manning

Jay Cutler

Risky play on both accounts but both have a high enough ceiling to warrant the low price tag.

RB

Arian Foster

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Mikel Leshoure

RashardMendenhall

Cedric Benson

Some more risk here with the exception of Foster. Gonna need all the pieces to fall into place here.

WR

Roddy White

Percy Harvin

Brandon Lloyd

Dez Bryant

Eric Decker

Mike Wallace

Steve Smith STL

Damien Williams

Pretty excited about this group especially in a ppr format.

TE

Rob Housler

Martellus Bennett :excited:

Tony Scheffler

Evan Moore

You want uniqueness? This here is your dream team.

K

Mason Crosby

Cuz I needed one

DST

Packers

Cuz I'm a :homer:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matt Ryan

Andrew Luck

Jake Locker

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LeSean McCoy

Ryan Mathews

Marshawn Lynch

Cedric Benson

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Brandon Lloyd

Dez Bryant

Torrey Smith

Kenny Britt

Titus Young

Justin Blackmon

Steve Smith

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Greg Olsen

Coby Fleener

Martellus Bennett

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matt Prater

Justin Medlock

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Buffalo Bills

San Diego Chargers

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've never added uniqueness to the equation when picking out my lineup. By the time I get bye weeks, good values, playoff schedule and players I like sorted out, there aren't enough players left to include uniqueness. I'd have to sacrafice one of the other factors which I'm not willing to do.

I purposely chose McCoy over Foster, because A) I thought McCoy would be more unique than Foster and B) Foster has a decent chance of getting injured (IMHO) Uniqueness only came into play for just a few of my decisions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First time in this contest. Probably didn't handle the bye weeks well.

Matt Ryan $19

Robert Griffin III $17

Chris Johnson $27

Fred Jackson $21

Marshawn Lynch $19

Stevan Ridley $16

Julio Jones $23

Pierre Garcon $14

Malcom Floyd $13

Lance Moore $11

Davone Bess $6

Steve Smith $5

Jimmy Graham $29

Brandon Pettigrew $15

Steve Hauschka $3

Matt Prater $3

Lawrence Tynes $3

Cincinnati Bengals $3

New Orleans Saints $3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is my roster. I'm happy now but when injuries hit I could get tanked quickly. Since TE gets 1.5 PPR I'm banking on Gates/Hernandez as the flex with fall back depth in RB/WR to cover on off weeks. Kickers I went for the long ball guys. Defense I went for good combined schedule.

ahhhh the best laid plans.

Matt Ryan $19

Jake Locker $9

-------------------------------

DeMarco Murray $24

Darren Sproles $23

Marshawn Lynch $19

Bilal Powell $4

Cedric Benson $3

-------------------------------

Brandon Marshall $22

Brandon Lloyd $18

Antonio Brown $17

Jeremy Maclin $17

Kendall Wright $6

Steve Smith $5

Jacoby Jones $2

Ryan Broyles $2

--------------------------------

Aaron Hernandez $23

Antonio Gates $20

Dwayne Allen $2

--------------------------------

Rob Bironas $3

Matt Prater $3

--------------------------------

Buffalo Bills $5

Seattle Seahawks $4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sure it's more nuanced than that. I don't think people are looking at the entry form and saying, "Benson will be on a lot of rosters. DO NOT WANT." It's more like, "Hmm, I want a RB in the $20-25 range, I have these guys all projected around the same amount of points, but I think a lot of people are going to take RBs A and B so I'm going to take RB C just to create some separation from the pack." I think in that sense there's nothing wrong with the strategy, except (1) there's probably a reason everyone's taking A and B and not taking C (perhaps they are better values for the price?) and (2) uniqueness, while potentially useful if you make the final 250, may actually work against you during the regular season when you don't need to come out on top, you just need to stay above the cut line each week.

This. I think some people are confusing an increased uniqueness with an increased number of "flyers". When I think of someone "trying" to build in extra uniqueness to their team, I think of a person choosing a less hyped player of the same caliber. Think A.J. Green over Julio Jones. I find the discussion interesting, but it's theoretical at best. Any attempt to alter the lineup you think is the highest possible scoring lineup for the sake of uniqueness is a mistake, imo. If you truly think 2 players are equal and want to take the more unique one, fine, but don't expect that uniqueness to necessarily carry over to week 14.
Here's the problem with uniqueness. Green can best Jones 12 out of 13 weeks (let's imagine no byes for the sake of this discussion), but the one week Jones goes off for 40 and Green posts a 7, your lagging a huge portion of the field and staring at elimination. In a more realistic scenario where they alternate better weeks, you're playing from behind half of the time.The biggest problem with not owning these highly held players is that if they get of to a good start, their number of owners build to the point they stream roll over everyone else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

QBPeyton ManningJay CutlerRisky play on both accounts but both have a high enough ceiling to warrant the low price tag.RBArian Foster BenJarvus Green-Ellis Mikel Leshoure RashardMendenhall Cedric BensonSome more risk here with the exception of Foster. Gonna need all the pieces to fall into place here.WRRoddy WhitePercy HarvinBrandon LloydDez BryantEric DeckerMike WallaceSteve Smith STLDamien WilliamsPretty excited about this group especially in a ppr format. TERob HouslerMartellus Bennett :excited: Tony SchefflerEvan MooreYou want uniqueness? This here is your dream team. KMason CrosbyCuz I needed oneDSTPackersCuz I'm a :homer:

Your going to be spotting the field 5 to 10 points at kicker at least half the weeks and problem the same at defense. I would have spent another $6-$12 at K/D to pick up those extra 10-20 pts. That's more points than Steve Smith will net you this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eli 21

Ryan 19

Luck 11

Running with 2 QBs has knocked me out (or at least been a big reason) in years past...bye week or injury and my other had a crappy day. Wanted to spend $$ on perhaps an additional K and D and 2 WR flyers, but thought I'd try this.

DMC 26

Lynch 19

Brown 19

Wilson 9

Benson 3

Royster 3

Jones 2

I'm optomistic about this list. Hoping (along with many others) that Benson / Royster can fill in nicely for a couple of bye or injury weeks.

Marshall 22

Bowe 17

Brown 17

Bess 6

Smith 5

Henderson 4

I believe that Marshall will be in the top 3-5 in this format. Brown is headed for a big year. Crossing fingers on Bowe, or to be more precise, Cassel's ability to get Bowe the ball after the run game opens up the passing game. Bess and Smith decent in PPR and Henderson always has a couple of monster games, and hopefully more with Meachem gone

Pettigrew 15

Keller 10

Dreesen 4

Davis 4

Allen 2

With 1.5 ppr for TE, I wanted to go a bit deeper here; hoping for a few "outlier" games from my bottom 3. Pettigrew should be a solid pick for $15 and Keller will hopefully fill in nicely on bye and for occasional flex points.

Gould 3

Vinatieri 3

Saints 3

Chiefs 3

Went for the cheapest-best Ks and Ds I could find

Thanks to Cowboys#1 for pointing out that I originally forgot to list my TEs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eli 21Ryan 19Luck 11Running with 2 QBs has knocked me out (or at least been a big reason) in years past...bye week or injury and my other had a crappy day. Wanted to spend $$ on perhaps an additional K and D and 2 WR flyers, but thought I'd try this. DMC 26Lynch 19Brown 19Wilson 9Benson 3Royster 3Jones 2I'm optomistic about this list. Hoping (along with many others) that Benson / Royster can fill in nicely for a couple of bye or injury weeks.Marshall 22Bowe 17Brown 17Bess 6Smith 5Henderson 4I believe that Marshall will be in the top 3-5 in this format. Brown is headed for a big year. Crossing fingers on Bowe, or to be more precise, Cassel's ability to get Bowe the ball after the run game opens up the passing game. Bess and Smith decent in PPR and Henderson always has a couple of monster games, and hopefully more with Meachem gone Gould 3Vinatieri 3Saints 3Chiefs 3Went for the cheapest-best Ks and Ds I could find

What about the TE's?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sure it's more nuanced than that. I don't think people are looking at the entry form and saying, "Benson will be on a lot of rosters. DO NOT WANT." It's more like, "Hmm, I want a RB in the $20-25 range, I have these guys all projected around the same amount of points, but I think a lot of people are going to take RBs A and B so I'm going to take RB C just to create some separation from the pack." I think in that sense there's nothing wrong with the strategy, except (1) there's probably a reason everyone's taking A and B and not taking C (perhaps they are better values for the price?) and (2) uniqueness, while potentially useful if you make the final 250, may actually work against you during the regular season when you don't need to come out on top, you just need to stay above the cut line each week.

This. I think some people are confusing an increased uniqueness with an increased number of "flyers". When I think of someone "trying" to build in extra uniqueness to their team, I think of a person choosing a less hyped player of the same caliber. Think A.J. Green over Julio Jones. I find the discussion interesting, but it's theoretical at best. Any attempt to alter the lineup you think is the highest possible scoring lineup for the sake of uniqueness is a mistake, imo. If you truly think 2 players are equal and want to take the more unique one, fine, but don't expect that uniqueness to necessarily carry over to week 14.
Here's the problem with uniqueness. Green can best Jones 12 out of 13 weeks (let's imagine no byes for the sake of this discussion), but the one week Jones goes off for 40 and Green posts a 7, your lagging a huge portion of the field and staring at elimination. In a more realistic scenario where they alternate better weeks, you're playing from behind half of the time.The biggest problem with not owning these highly held players is that if they get of to a good start, their number of owners build to the point they stream roll over everyone else.
Yes, I think most have agreed that uniqueness is not desirable in elimation weeks. But in the final 3 weeks I believe it is because your concern is no longer beating enough teams to survive, but instead beating every team. In that situation whether I'm trailing 1 team by a large margin or 249 by a large margin makes no difference to me. But the difference between being a head of 249 teams or being ahead of 1 is very important to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

QBPeyton ManningJay CutlerRisky play on both accounts but both have a high enough ceiling to warrant the low price tag.RBArian Foster BenJarvus Green-Ellis Mikel Leshoure RashardMendenhall Cedric BensonSome more risk here with the exception of Foster. Gonna need all the pieces to fall into place here.WRRoddy WhitePercy HarvinBrandon LloydDez BryantEric DeckerMike WallaceSteve Smith STLDamien WilliamsPretty excited about this group especially in a ppr format. TERob HouslerMartellus Bennett :excited: Tony SchefflerEvan MooreYou want uniqueness? This here is your dream team. KMason CrosbyCuz I needed oneDSTPackersCuz I'm a :homer:

What are you going to do on crosbys bye week? or any week he has a bad week? This is best ball, so having multiple kickers is a huge advantage. one goes off for 20 points one week and thats a huge advantage over haing even a good rb.... i have 4 kickers, thought about 5.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Matt Ryan

Matt Schaub

Jake Locker

---------------------

Fred Jackson

Willis McGahee

Ryan Williams

David Wilson

Mikel Leshoure

Cedric Benson

Evan Royster

---------------------

Jordy Nelson

Eric Decker

Mike Wallace

Austin Collie

Justin Blackmon

Danny Amendola

Rueben Randle

Kevin Ogletree WOOT!

---------------------

Jimmy Graham

Martellus Bennett

---------------------

Ryan Succop

Matt Prater

Rian Lindell

---------------------

Chicago Bears

Seattle Seahawks

Kansas City Chiefs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sure it's more nuanced than that. I don't think people are looking at the entry form and saying, "Benson will be on a lot of rosters. DO NOT WANT." It's more like, "Hmm, I want a RB in the $20-25 range, I have these guys all projected around the same amount of points, but I think a lot of people are going to take RBs A and B so I'm going to take RB C just to create some separation from the pack." I think in that sense there's nothing wrong with the strategy, except (1) there's probably a reason everyone's taking A and B and not taking C (perhaps they are better values for the price?) and (2) uniqueness, while potentially useful if you make the final 250, may actually work against you during the regular season when you don't need to come out on top, you just need to stay above the cut line each week.

This. I think some people are confusing an increased uniqueness with an increased number of "flyers". When I think of someone "trying" to build in extra uniqueness to their team, I think of a person choosing a less hyped player of the same caliber. Think A.J. Green over Julio Jones.

I find the discussion interesting, but it's theoretical at best. Any attempt to alter the lineup you think is the highest possible scoring lineup for the sake of uniqueness is a mistake, imo. If you truly think 2 players are equal and want to take the more unique one, fine, but don't expect that uniqueness to necessarily carry over to week 14.

See, I disagree with this a bit. You can create some "uniqueness" by doing what you said, knowing that JJones is very hyped this year so taking AJ Green instead. But I agree with those people that said by the time you get to the 250, your main guys have little uniqueness. Generally I think a couple of big guys will be common across all the rosters. So while you need those guys to do well weeks 14-16, I think what may help set you apart and give you a better chance to win is the uncommon "flyer" having a big week 14. Or 15. Or 16. Someone mentioned Spiller at less than 2% ownership last year. Of course it's hard to know who to pick in these cases. But I think you can do some things to make it a little more passable when you're just grabbing a couple of fliers to fill out the roster. The number one criteria with most fliers is their Bye week. That's why they're chosen. But lets say you have 2 bucks left and need an 8th WR with a certain Bye week and you're choosing between Donald Driver and Damien Williams. You may think that Donald Driver is the better player and will score about 6 points a game. But if you examine it more closely and see that Williams (scoring about 3-4 point for most weeks) may have a chance of better production than that later in the season, you should take him and possibly be more unique. Maybe you like TEN's late season schedule. Maybe you see that he is behind a guy who is a moron and may get in more trouble and a guy who is a rookie and may hit the wall later in the season. And that he has more time with last's year's backup QB who is the new starter.

Just one example, but I think the point is that you can make your couple of flyer picks have some more meaning than just who should average the most points per game this season. Your flyers will almost never help you from getting eliminated but one big week in the playoffs could put you on top.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3,329 teams or 24% have McFadden on their roster for $26. His injury history is why they got a discount for a possible top five RB. What I don't get is the lack of depth a lot of these teams have after McFadden. Many only have him and one other top 25 RB on their roster with the rest of their roster filled in with the same flyers everyone else has on their team (Benson, Royster, Mendenhall or Dwyer, and T. Jones).

This contest is not a good fit for McFadden. It will be interesting to watch how this one turns out. I could be wrong. But I'm happy to be "unique" by not having the second highest owned RB on my team. When McFadden goes down, it will be a lot easier for my team to survive....so thank you to all the McFadden owners. Thank you for helping to knock out some of the tough competition early on, then stepping to the side when he goes down.

:popcorn:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3,329 teams or 24% have McFadden on their roster for $26. His injury history is why they got a discount for a possible top five RB. What I don't get is the lack of depth a lot of these teams have after McFadden. Many only have him and one other top 25 RB on their roster with the rest of their roster filled in with the same flyers everyone else has on their team (Benson, Royster, Mendenhall or Dwyer, and T. Jones).This contest is not a good fit for McFadden. It will be interesting to watch how this one turns out. I could be wrong. But I'm happy to be "unique" by not having the second highest owned RB on my team. When McFadden goes down, it will be a lot easier for my team to survive....so thank you to all the McFadden owners. Thank you for helping to knock out some of the tough competition early on, then stepping to the side when he goes down. :popcorn:

i think they are banking on dmacs health. not likely but i think its a fine strategy in this contest. the point of taking dmac is to get a top rb and using those extra $7 on other positions so taking a $15 3rd rb over a $9 3rd rb kind of defeats that purpose.also, if dmac gets hurt, they are out anyway. it doesn't really matter how much depth they have

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3,329 teams or 24% have McFadden on their roster for $26. His injury history is why they got a discount for a possible top five RB. What I don't get is the lack of depth a lot of these teams have after McFadden. Many only have him and one other top 25 RB on their roster with the rest of their roster filled in with the same flyers everyone else has on their team (Benson, Royster, Mendenhall or Dwyer, and T. Jones).

This contest is not a good fit for McFadden. It will be interesting to watch how this one turns out. I could be wrong. But I'm happy to be "unique" by not having the second highest owned RB on my team. When McFadden goes down, it will be a lot easier for my team to survive....so thank you to all the McFadden owners. Thank you for helping to knock out some of the tough competition early on, then stepping to the side when he goes down.

:popcorn:

Out of all the McFadden owners:

275 have McFadden as their only top-24 RB

1724 have McFadden and one other top-24 RB

1208 have McFadden and two other top-24 RBs

83 have McFadden and three other top-24 RBs

1 has McFadden and four other top-24 RBs (this guy)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3,329 teams or 24% have McFadden on their roster for $26. His injury history is why they got a discount for a possible top five RB. What I don't get is the lack of depth a lot of these teams have after McFadden. Many only have him and one other top 25 RB on their roster with the rest of their roster filled in with the same flyers everyone else has on their team (Benson, Royster, Mendenhall or Dwyer, and T. Jones).This contest is not a good fit for McFadden. It will be interesting to watch how this one turns out. I could be wrong. But I'm happy to be "unique" by not having the second highest owned RB on my team. When McFadden goes down, it will be a lot easier for my team to survive....so thank you to all the McFadden owners. Thank you for helping to knock out some of the tough competition early on, then stepping to the side when he goes down. :popcorn:

i think they are banking on dmacs health. not likely but i think its a fine strategy in this contest. the point of taking dmac is to get a top rb and using those extra $7 on other positions so taking a $15 3rd rb over a $9 3rd rb kind of defeats that purpose.also, if dmac gets hurt, they are out anyway. it doesn't really matter how much depth they have
If I was going to take D-Mac...and he was in my line up a few times, I felt like I would need to back him up with a couple players like F. Jackson $21 and Lynch $19. That total would have been $66. Now if you took Foster and McCoy, that total would have been $66. I like the Dmac side of it better in this scenario. But Dmac + Lynch + flyers doesn't seem wise to me. He just can't seem to stay healthy. I don't want to risk my season on my flyers coming through on the weeks that Dmac can't play....I would be more willing to do it with 2 more consistent scorers for me and hope that Dmac is back by the time the final 250 rolls around.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Having just said uniqueness is bad in the regular season, I'm the only entry with my QB, RB, RB, WR, WR starters. Lovely.

Actually, you should be surprised if you *did* have the same 5 player combination as someone else.Selecting 1 of the top 10 QB's, and 2 each of the top 10 RB's and WR's yields 20,250 possible combinationsAnd if you are selecting from 1 of 15 QB's, and 2 of the top 20 RB's and WR's, there are over half a million possible combinations.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3,329 teams or 24% have McFadden on their roster for $26. His injury history is why they got a discount for a possible top five RB. What I don't get is the lack of depth a lot of these teams have after McFadden. Many only have him and one other top 25 RB on their roster with the rest of their roster filled in with the same flyers everyone else has on their team (Benson, Royster, Mendenhall or Dwyer, and T. Jones).

This contest is not a good fit for McFadden. It will be interesting to watch how this one turns out. I could be wrong. But I'm happy to be "unique" by not having the second highest owned RB on my team. When McFadden goes down, it will be a lot easier for my team to survive....so thank you to all the McFadden owners. Thank you for helping to knock out some of the tough competition early on, then stepping to the side when he goes down.

:popcorn:

Out of all the McFadden owners:

275 have McFadden as their only top-24 RB GROUP A

1724 have McFadden and one other top-24 RB GROUP B

1208 have McFadden and two other top-24 RBs

83 have McFadden and three other top-24 RBs

1 has McFadden and four other top-24 RBs (this guy)

It's group A and group B that I think took to big of a risk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh, and my $.02 on uniqueness, personally I think it balances out. Sometimes you'll outperform the pack because your common guys do poorly and your unique guys do well. And then you'll underperform because the vice-versa happens.

In any event, there are so many other facets of this contest to focus on, I'll use uniqueness as a strategy after I figure out the rest. Meaning, probably never. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A scientific breakdown of my rooster build:

Background: Last year, I finished a respectable 28th overall (i.e. in the money). For the most part, I liked my roster, and the process I used to build it, so this year, my build process will be the same, with a few exceptions. If you care to view my roster from last year, you can find it here. This is my third year reading this thread religiously, and despite the nice finish, I know my team would have been improved with a few changes, namely, 2 QBs, instead of 3, and more WR's.

About my brain: I'm a numbers guy, and things in my mind are black and white (no gray area). Because of that, I process choices based on numbers and less on things like "gut feel" and "emotion" (i.e., I setup my spreadsheet, and trust the smart guys at FBG.com with their projections, then run the analysis that leads to my roster build.) I also weighed weeks 14-16 at a much greater rate than weeks 1-13.

Entering arguments: I'm a 30-man roster-guy. While I might consider 29, or 28 in the future, I think the greatest chance for survival lies with 30 men. Based on some great survival-rate analysis posted by certain board members last year, I determined that my roster this year would be composed of: 2 QB, 4 RB, 10 WRs, 5 TEs, 5 PKs, and 4 DEFs.

Thought process: I believe a roster should be built in two parts. The first part is defining your "core" team. By core, I mean 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, and 1 TE. Part of this step is determining how much you'll spend on that core of 7 players. I used my core from last year to give me a rough dollar amount, then used Excel solver to determine the optimum amount to spend this year. Once I had that amount, I used Excel solver again to build my core. This is my core:

QB Matt Ryan $19

RB Arian Foster $34

RB Cedric Benson $3

WR Brandon Marshall $22

WR Dwayne Bowe $17

WR Torrey Smith $16

TE Brandon Pettigrew $15

The second part of the roster build is filling in the scrubs. Since I know how much I had left to spend, and which positions I had left to fill, Solving for the rest was pretty easy. The team I came up with had some kickers and defenses that were more expensive than I wanted, so I made some adjustments to that part of my roster to give me more money to spend on WRs. In the end, this is how my team turned out:

FlyjetzThis entry is still alive.                                 1      2      3      4      5      6      7      8      9     10     11     12     13     14     15     16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Matt Ryan             $19      0.00                                       bye                                                                Jake Locker            $9      0.00                                                                   bye                                    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Arian Foster          $34      0.00                                              bye                                                         Cedric Benson          $3      0.00                                                            bye                                           Evan Royster           $3      0.00                                                            bye                                           Taiwan Jones           $2      0.00                         bye                                                                              ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Brandon Marshall      $22      0.00                                bye                                                                       Dwayne Bowe           $17      0.00                                       bye                                                                Torrey Smith          $16      0.00                                              bye                                                         Kenny Britt           $13      0.00                                                                   bye                                    Michael Crabtree      $11      0.00                                                     bye                                                  Titus Young           $10      0.00                         bye                                                                              Justin Blackmon        $7      0.00                                bye                                                                       Steve Smith            $5      0.00                                                     bye                                                  Harry Douglas          $3      0.00                                       bye                                                                Josh Gordon            $3      0.00                                                            bye                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Brandon Pettigrew     $15      0.00                         bye                                                                              Tony Gonzalez         $13      0.00                                       bye                                                                Heath Miller           $7      0.00                  bye                                                                                     Kellen Davis           $4      0.00                                bye                                                                       Dwayne Allen           $2      0.00                  bye                                                                                     ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Nate Kaeding           $4      0.00                                       bye                                                                Jason Hanson           $4      0.00                         bye                                                                              Rob Bironas            $3      0.00                                                                   bye                                    Matt Prater            $3      0.00                                       bye                                                                Mike Nugent            $3      0.00                                              bye                                                         ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Philadelphia Eagles    $6      0.00                                       bye                                                                Carolina Panthers      $3      0.00                                bye                                                                       Cincinnati Bengals     $3      0.00                                              bye                                                         New Orleans Saints     $3      0.00                                bye                                                                       ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parting thoughts: Clearly this roster is weakest in the RB area. If the Foster/Benson combo doesn't pan out, I'm out early. Also, I don't like the bye situation in Week 7, but I think that's early enough to survive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really needing Cutler to step up, think that RB's should be fine, went with more name recognition at WR, and always like to go with 2 TE, D, and K.

Jay Cutler $17 0.00 bye

Ryan Fitzpatrick $11 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DeMarco Murray $24 0.00 bye

Darren Sproles $23 0.00 bye

DeAngelo Williams $15 0.00 bye

Rashad Jennings $9 0.00 bye

David Wilson $9 0.00 bye

Mikel Leshoure $9 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Victor Cruz $22 0.00 bye

Steve Smith $20 0.00 bye

Dez Bryant $18 0.00 bye

Eric Decker $17 0.00 bye

Justin Blackmon $7 0.00 bye

David Nelson $6 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Brandon Pettigrew $15 0.00 bye

Jared Cook $11 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dan Bailey $5 0.00 bye

Matt Prater $3 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dallas Cowboys $5 0.00 bye

Seattle Seahawks $4 0.00

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3,329 teams or 24% have McFadden on their roster for $26. His injury history is why they got a discount for a possible top five RB. What I don't get is the lack of depth a lot of these teams have after McFadden. Many only have him and one other top 25 RB on their roster with the rest of their roster filled in with the same flyers everyone else has on their team (Benson, Royster, Mendenhall or Dwyer, and T. Jones).

This contest is not a good fit for McFadden. It will be interesting to watch how this one turns out. I could be wrong. But I'm happy to be "unique" by not having the second highest owned RB on my team. When McFadden goes down, it will be a lot easier for my team to survive....so thank you to all the McFadden owners. Thank you for helping to knock out some of the tough competition early on, then stepping to the side when he goes down.

:popcorn:

Out of all the McFadden owners:

275 have McFadden as their only top-24 RB GROUP A

1724 have McFadden and one other top-24 RB GROUP B

1208 have McFadden and two other top-24 RBs

83 have McFadden and three other top-24 RBs

1 has McFadden and four other top-24 RBs (this guy)

It's group A and group B that I think took to big of a risk.
Possibly. I mean, you have to take some form of risk in this contest. You could argue that placing $60+ in three players is its own kind of risk. This year is also kind of strange because you have a $3 guy in Benson who's already a starter on a high-powered offense, and several other single-dollar guys that are significantly likely to be starters this season (e.g. Mendenhall, or hell, just get the Dwyer/Mendenhall combo for $8). In other words, for a total $11 you can pretty much get the starting RBs for both Green Bay and Pittsburgh. Normally that would cost like $50. So it's not necessarily like these teams have McFadden and a bunch of fliers - if we're being honest, many of the teams in groups A and B have McFadden and at least two other quality starting RBs.

If McFadden goes down for a while, most McFadden owners will be in some trouble. That's a big chunk of your budget to lose in one fell swoop. You may think having two or three other high-priced RBs on your roster protects you, but that also means you spent that much less at other positions. If not at RB, your team will have a weakness somewhere which will likely be exposed, one way or another.

I think that's ok, though. You have to assume guys will stay healthy, it's the only way to build a winning roster. As a fellow non-McFadden owner, though, I'm not going to shed a tear if he does end up missing time again. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A scientific breakdown of my rooster build:

I like your philosophy of letting the numbers dictate your roster choices. I'm not sure I love the 2-4-10-5-5-4 breakdown, though. I feel like I'd love this team a lot more if you got rid of your bottom defense ($3), your bottom two kickers ($6), your bottom TE ($2) and bottom two WRs ($6) and used that $17 in some fashion to bulk up at RB. I know how important quantity is in season-long best ball, but I wonder if guys like Douglas, Gordon, and Allen will really contribute enough (or at all) to justify being so thin at RB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Possibly. I mean, you have to take some form of risk in this contest. You could argue that placing $60+ in three players is its own kind of risk. This year is also kind of strange because you have a $3 guy in Benson who's already a starter on a high-powered offense, and several other single-dollar guys that are significantly likely to be starters this season (e.g. Mendenhall, or hell, just get the Dwyer/Mendenhall combo for $8). In other words, for a total $11 you can pretty much get the starting RBs for both Green Bay and Pittsburgh. Normally that would cost like $50. So it's not necessarily like these teams have McFadden and a bunch of fliers - if we're being honest, many of the teams in groups A and B have McFadden and at least two other quality starting RBs.If McFadden goes down for a while, most McFadden owners will be in some trouble. That's a big chunk of your budget to lose in one fell swoop. You may think having two or three other high-priced RBs on your roster protects you, but that also means you spent that much less at other positions. If not at RB, your team will have a weakness somewhere which will likely be exposed, one way or another.I think that's ok, though. You have to assume guys will stay healthy, it's the only way to build a winning roster. As a fellow non-McFadden owner, though, I'm not going to shed a tear if he does end up missing time again. :)

As a DMC owner, I think y'all are just haters. :boxing:In all seriousness, while DMC has had his share of injury concerns, his upside in a PPR format (especially with Bush now gone) is tremendous. He has the talent to be Top 5 for $10 less than what you are spending on other RBs. If he's healthy for a full-year, then I think the DMC owners win. If he's not, well then we're no better off and probably out of the contest.Personally, I wanted him on my roster in the last few weeks of this pool as I felt he gives the best chance at scoring points in the format. Swinging for the fences here. :shrug:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Drew Brees $29 0.00 bye

Matt Cassel $9 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fred Jackson $21 0.00 bye

Marshawn Lynch $19 0.00 bye

Willis McGahee $16 0.00 bye

Cedric Benson $3 0.00 bye

Evan Royster $3 0.00 bye

Taiwan Jones $2 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Calvin Johnson $29 0.00 bye

Lance Moore $11 0.00 bye

Santana Moss $8 0.00 bye

Davone Bess $6 0.00 bye

Danny Amendola $6 0.00 bye

Steve Smith $5 0.00 bye

James Jones $3 0.00 bye

Mohamed Massaquoi $3 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jimmy Graham $29 0.00 bye

Rob Gronkowski $28 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rob Bironas $3 0.00 bye

Matt Prater $3 0.00 bye

Greg Zuerlein $3 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Seattle Seahawks $4 0.00 bye

Denver Broncos $4 0.00 bye

Cincinnati Bengals $3 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

QB - Decided to risk an injury putting me out of the contest by only going 2 qb's. Initially had Schaub as my 2nd qb who i thought represents very good value at that price...but switched him out at the last second for Cassel to grab an extra wr. Hoping to only need Cassell's score 1 time. Love Brees chances to repeat his monster year last year and I view him as the safest of all the big money qbs.

RB - Tried to put a couple of workhorse type backs who should see a large amount of carries and have very little competition in 1st so i went with Lynch and Mcgahee. They dont work as well in PPR, but I expect fairly decent and consistent years out of both. Fred Jackson works well in PPR and if he stays healthy could see a monster year. My logic with Royster, Benson, and Jones are like everyone elses...cheap lottery tickets. I am not anticipating needing my flex to come from here most weeks so i only need 2 good scores out of these 6 and I feel I'm well balanced with consistent performers and guys who can drastically outperform their cost.

WR - I initally didnt go with Calvin, with his money spread to a few mediocre wr's. I just never seemed to like the look of the roster and decided to splurge on him. If you're spending, may as well go elite. Again, hoping i dont need my flex to come from my wr's, so i only need 3 good scores. With wr's being the most inconsistent of the bunch, i figured i'd lock up one spot. Love lance moore in the red zone, and with no Meachum, he could be in for a very nice year if he stays on the field. Took the Rams wr's as they are cheap, Amendola and Bess are nice very cheap options in PPR formats, Jones could put up a few big weeks but I mainly rostered him in case a starter goes down. I am hoping Moss has a year similar to Steve Smith's last year, hitting some deep balls with Griffin buying time with his legs. Massoquoi just seemed like good value for 3 bucks.

TE - havent read all 18 pages, but of the half i have, I havent seen anyone else go this route (Gronkowski, Graham). With 1.5 ppr, and these guys very likely to put up elite wr 1 type numbers, i thought i was better off spending the extra money here than at wr. Short of injury, i think they're week in week out production will be more consistent than an elite wr. My bye is covered with a stud and the rest of the time I'm hoping the other te is my flex.

I dont have a single week where I'm overly at risk on byes, and I feel like short of Brees, and possibly Calvin, I can survive season ending injuries from everyone else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In all seriousness, while DMC has had his share of injury concerns, his upside in a PPR format (especially with Bush now gone) is tremendous. He has the talent to be Top 5 for $10 less than what you are spending on other RBs.

I agree that he has the potential to be elite, but let's not exaggerate here. He's only $2 less than the 5th highest-priced RB, and $6-8 less than the big three. He's basically already being priced for his top-5 potential, and only getting a slight discount due to his perceived higher injury risk; at his price the amount of upside he has is limited. It's not like he's a mid-priced flier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Possibly. I mean, you have to take some form of risk in this contest. You could argue that placing $60+ in three players is its own kind of risk. This year is also kind of strange because you have a $3 guy in Benson who's already a starter on a high-powered offense, and several other single-dollar guys that are significantly likely to be starters this season (e.g. Mendenhall, or hell, just get the Dwyer/Mendenhall combo for $8). In other words, for a total $11 you can pretty much get the starting RBs for both Green Bay and Pittsburgh. Normally that would cost like $50. So it's not necessarily like these teams have McFadden and a bunch of fliers - if we're being honest, many of the teams in groups A and B have McFadden and at least two other quality starting RBs.If McFadden goes down for a while, most McFadden owners will be in some trouble. That's a big chunk of your budget to lose in one fell swoop. You may think having two or three other high-priced RBs on your roster protects you, but that also means you spent that much less at other positions. If not at RB, your team will have a weakness somewhere which will likely be exposed, one way or another.I think that's ok, though. You have to assume guys will stay healthy, it's the only way to build a winning roster. As a fellow non-McFadden owner, though, I'm not going to shed a tear if he does end up missing time again. :)

As a DMC owner, I think y'all are just haters. :boxing:In all seriousness, while DMC has had his share of injury concerns, his upside in a PPR format (especially with Bush now gone) is tremendous. He has the talent to be Top 5 for $10 less than what you are spending on other RBs. If he's healthy for a full-year, then I think the DMC owners win. If he's not, well then we're no better off and probably out of the contest.Personally, I wanted him on my roster in the last few weeks of this pool as I felt he gives the best chance at scoring points in the format. Swinging for the fences here. :shrug:
To be honest, I'm just trying to make myself feel better about my own swing for the fences move. I have both Foster and Rice on my team. I'm one of the few who do. Dmac going down with an injury right around week seven would be wonderful. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In all seriousness, while DMC has had his share of injury concerns, his upside in a PPR format (especially with Bush now gone) is tremendous. He has the talent to be Top 5 for $10 less than what you are spending on other RBs.

I agree that he has the potential to be elite, but let's not exaggerate here. He's only $2 less than the 5th highest-priced RB, and $6-8 less than the big three. He's basically already being priced for his top-5 potential, and only getting a slight discount due to his perceived higher injury risk; at his price the amount of upside he has is limited. It's not like he's a mid-priced flier.
I agree to a point, but the $6-8 less was able to be used elsewhere (namely Mendenhall/Benson who give you 2 other starters for the price of Foster or Rice). So rather than having my eggs in one basket with Foster, I end up with a guy that can put Foster-type numbers up, as well as have backup insurance by two other starters on a weekly basis who could surprise. That discount was worth it to me and in best ball format seemed to be the best choice to make.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm also one of only 270 that only took 1 QB. Maybe I should focus on my own risks hahaha

You're one of 20 teams with Foster and Rice and only 1 QB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In all seriousness, while DMC has had his share of injury concerns, his upside in a PPR format (especially with Bush now gone) is tremendous. He has the talent to be Top 5 for $10 less than what you are spending on other RBs.

I agree that he has the potential to be elite, but let's not exaggerate here. He's only $2 less than the 5th highest-priced RB, and $6-8 less than the big three. He's basically already being priced for his top-5 potential, and only getting a slight discount due to his perceived higher injury risk; at his price the amount of upside he has is limited. It's not like he's a mid-priced flier.
Disagree big time here. The upside a fully healthy McFadden has is huge. Like Chris Johnson 2009 huge. Huge enough to almost singlehandedly carry you to a title. We can argue about how likely he is to reach that upside, but IMO outside of a healthy AP there is not RB in football with as much talent and upside as McFadden. Getting a guy like that at a price of $26 offers tremendous upside. It all boils down to if you are willing to roll the dice or not, and in a contest like this I think he is the kind of guy who you need to take the chance on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tried something different this year. Instead of over thinking it, I just waited until 10 pm Tuesday, went down the list, and clicked the names that looked like the best values. I checked what I had, and was shocked to find that I was at $259 and 31 players. I checked my byes and only found one potential conflict, so I cut two players, added another to patch my bye issue, and hit submit. Easy. We'll see how it goes this year, but I like the squad. QBs-Vick ($22)Locker ($9)Skelton ($7)Tannehill ($4)I love Vick in this contest. Love him. People are forgetting just how unreal he was in fantasy back in 2010. He's got higher upside than the big 3 at a lower cost, and this game is all about upside. Plus, he's relatively unique, which means if he goes off I've got a huge advantage against the field. Locker was my last addition to help get me past Vick's bye. Skelton and Tannehill finish out a corps that has four starters for the price of two to help cover for Vick's added risk.RBs-Doug Martin ($21)Jonathan Stewart ($16)David Wilson ($9)Robert Turbin ($6)Rashard Mendenhall ($4)Jonathan Dwyer ($4)Cedric Benson ($3)Evan Royster ($3)Between Martin, Stewart, The Pitt Pair, and Benson, I love my chances of getting two startable scores a week. Stewart gives me all-world upside and some more differentiation from the pack. Turbin, Royster, and Wilson are lottery tickets- I looked at trading them in for a single $17 back, but there was no one else in that range that I liked. WRs-Steve Johnson ($18)Mike Wallace ($16)Lance Moore ($11)Randall Cobb ($9)Justin Blackmon ($7)Kendall Wright ($6)Alshon Jeffery ($6)Eddie Royal ($2)I've really been warming on Steve Johnson recently, and thought he gave me a good, dependable value play. Wallace continues giving me upside. I like Lance Moore as a sneaky play with Meachem out- any injuries in NO and he can blow up. Cobb, the three rookies, and Royal were obvious value plays, IMO. Huge upside for the cost. TEs-Jimmy Graham ($29)Lance Kendricks ($9)Joel Dreessen ($4)Graham was my one big splurge. I didn't like very many value plays at TE this year, so I decided to spend big and get a stud. The two values I did like are potential second-year breakout Kendricks, and stupidly-underpriced Dreessen. PKs-Jason Hanson ($4)Randy Bullock ($4)Matt Prater ($3)Greg Zuerlein ($3)A pair of $4 guys in great offenses, a pair of $3 guys with huge legs. Ds-New York Jets ($4)Denver Broncos ($4)Cincy Bengals ($3)The Jets are the chalk pick. Denver is because any defense with a pair of pass rushers like Miller and Dumerville has explosive upside. Cincy was the best of the $3 bunch. So there you have it. Not a lot of studs, but I focused on potential difference makers. I'm not interested in finishing in the 90th percentile, I want to finish in the 99.9th percentile. I wanted to leave myself with a plausible and clear narrative which could leave me with the best team, and I think the Vick/Stewart combo accomplishes exactly that. If those two players go big (which they're demonstrably capable of doing), then my team is going places. Only 8 other teams in the entire contest features that duo.

With the benefit of two days worth of hindsight, I'm still happy with my team, but I do wish that I hadn't spent that money on Turbin and Wilson. Realistically, Martin, Stewart, MenDwyerHall, Benson, and Royster already gave me 4-5 starting NFL jobs. Turbin and Wilson have a much lower chance of ever posting a startable score over that corps than an extra kicker or defense might. I could have axed those two, added a pair of $3 kickers or Ds, and still had $9 left over to upgrade one of my other positions. Maybe rearrange some cash and turn Lance Kendricks into Antonio Gates, or Steve Johnson into Calvin Johnson. I think my rapid reactions did a great job of identifying underpriced players, and a not-so-great job at deciding how likely I was to ever count a score from those undervalued players.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In all seriousness, while DMC has had his share of injury concerns, his upside in a PPR format (especially with Bush now gone) is tremendous. He has the talent to be Top 5 for $10 less than what you are spending on other RBs.

I agree that he has the potential to be elite, but let's not exaggerate here. He's only $2 less than the 5th highest-priced RB, and $6-8 less than the big three. He's basically already being priced for his top-5 potential, and only getting a slight discount due to his perceived higher injury risk; at his price the amount of upside he has is limited. It's not like he's a mid-priced flier.
Disagree big time here. The upside a fully healthy McFadden has is huge. Like Chris Johnson 2009 huge. Huge enough to almost singlehandedly carry you to a title. We can argue about how likely he is to reach that upside, but IMO outside of a healthy AP there is not RB in football with as much talent and upside as McFadden. Getting a guy like that at a price of $26 offers tremendous upside. It all boils down to if you are willing to roll the dice or not, and in a contest like this I think he is the kind of guy who you need to take the chance on.
No one player can "singlehandedly carry you to a title" in this contest. To use your own example, the team that won the whole contest in 2009 didn't own Chris Johnson. Neither did the team that came in 2nd. Neither did the team that came in 3rd. To win, you pretty much need a minimum of 600 points scored over a three week span. Realistically, what's the most a single player will score in that span? 100? 120? You still need a lot else to go right to win.

I'm not saying he's not likely to be one of the best players in the entire pool, but he's also one of the top 15 highest-priced players in the pool. He's not the most expensive player, but you're paying for a lot of his "upside." When I think "upside" in this context, I think of a lower-priced guy that can perform like a high-priced guy, not a high-priced guy who can perform like, well, a high-priced guy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(e.g. Mendenhall, or hell, just get the Dwyer/Mendenhall combo for $8).

In hindsight, I'm regretting my Doug Wilson choice, and wish I'd gone with this. Not because I'm overreacting to last night's game, but for the same money, the odds of having a true starter for most of the season is probably higher.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So here's my entry:

Aaron Rodgers $31

Ryan Tannehill $4

-------------------------

Arian Foster $34

Stevan Ridley $16

Mark Ingram $14

Cedric Benson $3

Taiwan Jones $2

-------------------------

Calvin Johnson $29

Julio Jones $23

Brandon Lloyd $18

Reggie Wayne $15

Justin Blackmon $7

Jonathan Baldwin $4

-------------------------

Jimmy Graham $29

-------------------------

Adam Vinatieri $3

Matt Prater $3

Greg Zuerlein $3

Lawrence Tynes $3

-------------------------

Pittsburgh Steelers $5

New York Jets $4

Whaddayathink? Too much "chalk"?

I had a 28-man roster at one point but just kept "upgrading" until I ended up here.

Might even be pretty unique...

Good luck to all!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In all seriousness, while DMC has had his share of injury concerns, his upside in a PPR format (especially with Bush now gone) is tremendous. He has the talent to be Top 5 for $10 less than what you are spending on other RBs.

I agree that he has the potential to be elite, but let's not exaggerate here. He's only $2 less than the 5th highest-priced RB, and $6-8 less than the big three. He's basically already being priced for his top-5 potential, and only getting a slight discount due to his perceived higher injury risk; at his price the amount of upside he has is limited. It's not like he's a mid-priced flier.
Disagree big time here. The upside a fully healthy McFadden has is huge. Like Chris Johnson 2009 huge. Huge enough to almost singlehandedly carry you to a title. We can argue about how likely he is to reach that upside, but IMO outside of a healthy AP there is not RB in football with as much talent and upside as McFadden. Getting a guy like that at a price of $26 offers tremendous upside. It all boils down to if you are willing to roll the dice or not, and in a contest like this I think he is the kind of guy who you need to take the chance on.
No one player can "singlehandedly carry you to a title" in this contest. To use your own example, the team that won the whole contest in 2009 didn't own Chris Johnson. Neither did the team that came in 2nd. Neither did the team that came in 3rd. To win, you pretty much need a minimum of 600 points scored over a three week span. Realistically, what's the most a single player will score in that span? 100? 120? You still need a lot else to go right to win.

I'm not saying he's not likely to be one of the best players in the entire pool, but he's also one of the top 15 highest-priced players in the pool. He's not the most expensive player, but you're paying for a lot of his "upside." When I think "upside" in this context, I think of a lower-priced guy that can perform like a high-priced guy, not a high-priced guy who can perform like, well, a high-priced guy.

To clarify, when I said singlehandedly carry you to a title, I was referring to a redraft league. Obviously here you need a bit more. In hypothetical world, if you knew every player was going to remain healthy for the entire year, how many players would you take before McFadden? For me, I am taking Foster, Calvin, Graham and maybe Rice and that is it. I look at McFadden as a high priced guy who has the potential to perform like the highest priced guy in the league. But obviously everyone weighs the risks differently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sure it's more nuanced than that. I don't think people are looking at the entry form and saying, "Benson will be on a lot of rosters. DO NOT WANT." It's more like, "Hmm, I want a RB in the $20-25 range, I have these guys all projected around the same amount of points, but I think a lot of people are going to take RBs A and B so I'm going to take RB C just to create some separation from the pack." I think in that sense there's nothing wrong with the strategy, except (1) there's probably a reason everyone's taking A and B and not taking C (perhaps they are better values for the price?) and (2) uniqueness, while potentially useful if you make the final 250, may actually work against you during the regular season when you don't need to come out on top, you just need to stay above the cut line each week.

This. I think some people are confusing an increased uniqueness with an increased number of "flyers". When I think of someone "trying" to build in extra uniqueness to their team, I think of a person choosing a less hyped player of the same caliber. Think A.J. Green over Julio Jones.

I find the discussion interesting, but it's theoretical at best. Any attempt to alter the lineup you think is the highest possible scoring lineup for the sake of uniqueness is a mistake, imo. If you truly think 2 players are equal and want to take the more unique one, fine, but don't expect that uniqueness to necessarily carry over to week 14.

See, I disagree with this a bit. You can create some "uniqueness" by doing what you said, knowing that JJones is very hyped this year so taking AJ Green instead. But I agree with those people that said by the time you get to the 250, your main guys have little uniqueness. Generally I think a couple of big guys will be common across all the rosters. So while you need those guys to do well weeks 14-16, I think what may help set you apart and give you a better chance to win is the uncommon "flyer" having a big week 14. Or 15. Or 16. Someone mentioned Spiller at less than 2% ownership last year. Of course it's hard to know who to pick in these cases. But I think you can do some things to make it a little more passable when you're just grabbing a couple of fliers to fill out the roster. The number one criteria with most fliers is their Bye week. That's why they're chosen. But lets say you have 2 bucks left and need an 8th WR with a certain Bye week and you're choosing between Donald Driver and Damien Williams. You may think that Donald Driver is the better player and will score about 6 points a game. But if you examine it more closely and see that Williams (scoring about 3-4 point for most weeks) may have a chance of better production than that later in the season, you should take him and possibly be more unique. Maybe you like TEN's late season schedule. Maybe you see that he is behind a guy who is a moron and may get in more trouble and a guy who is a rookie and may hit the wall later in the season. And that he has more time with last's year's backup QB who is the new starter.

Just one example, but I think the point is that you can make your couple of flyer picks have some more meaning than just who should average the most points per game this season. Your flyers will almost never help you from getting eliminated but one big week in the playoffs could put you on top.

I agree. But it's essentially the same thing that I said. I don't see the disagreement. I used green and Julio as examples, you used driver and Williams. The point remains he same, when selecting uniqueness you're generally choosing between 2 like quantities. You're not saying I think Torrey smith is going to be atop 5 Wr but I'm gonna pass on him and take a bunch of $4 guys to be unique. There are exceptions, but I believe this to generally be the case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3,329 teams or 24% have McFadden on their roster for $26. His injury history is why they got a discount for a possible top five RB. What I don't get is the lack of depth a lot of these teams have after McFadden. Many only have him and one other top 25 RB on their roster with the rest of their roster filled in with the same flyers everyone else has on their team (Benson, Royster, Mendenhall or Dwyer, and T. Jones).This contest is not a good fit for McFadden. It will be interesting to watch how this one turns out. I could be wrong. But I'm happy to be "unique" by not having the second highest owned RB on my team. When McFadden goes down, it will be a lot easier for my team to survive....so thank you to all the McFadden owners. Thank you for helping to knock out some of the tough competition early on, then stepping to the side when he goes down. :popcorn:

i think they are banking on dmacs health. not likely but i think its a fine strategy in this contest. the point of taking dmac is to get a top rb and using those extra $7 on other positions so taking a $15 3rd rb over a $9 3rd rb kind of defeats that purpose.also, if dmac gets hurt, they are out anyway. it doesn't really matter how much depth they have
Agreed. You need a lot to go right to win this contest. Playing it safe is a worse strategy than Taking risks. Hairy, your team could be in some serious trouble if "when McFadden goes down" never happens.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For what it's worth......

tried to grab some of the guys we all hate to use on a week

to week basis, but they have upside if they're "always"

in your line-up

Matt Ryan $19

Locker $9

Steven Jackson $22

DeAngelo Williams $15

Peyton Hillis $14

Rashad Jennings $9

David Wilson $9

Rashard Mendenhall $4

Jonathan Dwyer $4

Evan Royster $3

Julio Jones $23

Brandon Marshall $22

Antonio Brown $17

Lance Moore $11

Emmanuel Sanders $7

Danny Amendola $6

Steve Smith $5

Devery Henderson $4

Eddie Royal $2

Greg Olsen $11

Dustin Keller $10

Martellus Bennett $4

Matt Prater $3

Greg Zuerlein $3

Lawrence Tynes $3

Arizona Cardinals $4

Seattle Seahawks $4

Kansas City Chiefs $3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3,329 teams or 24% have McFadden on their roster for $26. His injury history is why they got a discount for a possible top five RB. What I don't get is the lack of depth a lot of these teams have after McFadden. Many only have him and one other top 25 RB on their roster with the rest of their roster filled in with the same flyers everyone else has on their team (Benson, Royster, Mendenhall or Dwyer, and T. Jones).This contest is not a good fit for McFadden. It will be interesting to watch how this one turns out. I could be wrong. But I'm happy to be "unique" by not having the second highest owned RB on my team. When McFadden goes down, it will be a lot easier for my team to survive....so thank you to all the McFadden owners. Thank you for helping to knock out some of the tough competition early on, then stepping to the side when he goes down. :popcorn:

i think they are banking on dmacs health. not likely but i think its a fine strategy in this contest. the point of taking dmac is to get a top rb and using those extra $7 on other positions so taking a $15 3rd rb over a $9 3rd rb kind of defeats that purpose.also, if dmac gets hurt, they are out anyway. it doesn't really matter how much depth they have
Agreed. You need a lot to go right to win this contest. Playing it safe is a worse strategy than Taking risks. Hairy, your team could be in some serious trouble if "when McFadden goes down" never happens.
I agree....I guess I didn't expect that many people to select McFadden. With ownership so high, one of three things need to happen for teams without McFadden:1) McFadden gets hurt2) McFadden under performs3) One of my selections needs to consistently out perform McFaddenNumber 2 isn't going to happen imo. Number 3 is likely to happen most weeks for me with Rice and Foster (except week 8 when both are on byes)....which is where I'm in serious trouble. So that leaves Number 1....there is a high probability that my team exits this contest week 8 unless McFadden gets hurt. The other position players on my team will not be enough to get me through because many of those players are owned by the McFadden owners. I feel like the success of my team hinges on McFadden even though he isn't on my team.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My entry. not expecting much but hope to surprise. :yes:

Ryan, Flacco

CJ, Murray, Mcgahee, Benson, Royster, Wilson

Julio, Dez, Torrey Smith, Garçon, Blackmon, Wright

Hernandez, Pettigrew, D. Allen

Prater, Bironas

Texans,, Chiefs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3,329 teams or 24% have McFadden on their roster for $26. His injury history is why they got a discount for a possible top five RB. What I don't get is the lack of depth a lot of these teams have after McFadden. Many only have him and one other top 25 RB on their roster with the rest of their roster filled in with the same flyers everyone else has on their team (Benson, Royster, Mendenhall or Dwyer, and T. Jones).This contest is not a good fit for McFadden. It will be interesting to watch how this one turns out. I could be wrong. But I'm happy to be "unique" by not having the second highest owned RB on my team. When McFadden goes down, it will be a lot easier for my team to survive....so thank you to all the McFadden owners. Thank you for helping to knock out some of the tough competition early on, then stepping to the side when he goes down. :popcorn:

i think they are banking on dmacs health. not likely but i think its a fine strategy in this contest. the point of taking dmac is to get a top rb and using those extra $7 on other positions so taking a $15 3rd rb over a $9 3rd rb kind of defeats that purpose.also, if dmac gets hurt, they are out anyway. it doesn't really matter how much depth they have
Agreed. You need a lot to go right to win this contest. Playing it safe is a worse strategy than Taking risks. Hairy, your team could be in some serious trouble if "when McFadden goes down" never happens.
I agree....I guess I didn't expect that many people to select McFadden. With ownership so high, one of three things need to happen for teams without McFadden:1) McFadden gets hurt2) McFadden under performs3) One of my selections needs to consistently out perform McFaddenNumber 2 isn't going to happen imo. Number 3 is likely to happen most weeks for me with Rice and Foster (except week 8 when both are on byes)....which is where I'm in serious trouble. So that leaves Number 1....there is a high probability that my team exits this contest week 8 unless McFadden gets hurt. The other position players on my team will not be enough to get me through because many of those players are owned by the McFadden owners. I feel like the success of my team hinges on McFadden even though he isn't on my team.
I think you're vastly overstating the impact of a single player. Ownership is relatively high, but he's still on only a quarter of the entries in the contest. Teams without McFadden don't need any of those three things to happen. If McFadden stays healthy all year and performs as well as expected, that's great for the McFadden owners but all the non-McFadden owners have 18-30 players of their own to keep up. Someone earlier referenced what a dominant year Chris Johnson had in 2009, and yet none of the top three teams owned him. You don't need any single selection to consistently outperform McFadden. You just need a well-constructed roster (which, in hindsight, may involve avoiding two top-priced players at the same position with the same late-ish bye week) that scores enough points consistently to stay above the cutline every week. You could not have a single player that ever outscores McFadden on a single week all year and you could still win the contest. Your success or failure has just about everything to do with how all your players perform, not how McFadden performs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the Ryan/Flacco combo seems like its in every other team posted here

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

QBPeyton ManningJay CutlerRisky play on both accounts but both have a high enough ceiling to warrant the low price tag.RBArian Foster BenJarvus Green-Ellis Mikel Leshoure RashardMendenhall Cedric BensonSome more risk here with the exception of Foster. Gonna need all the pieces to fall into place here.WRRoddy WhitePercy HarvinBrandon LloydDez BryantEric DeckerMike WallaceSteve Smith STLDamien WilliamsPretty excited about this group especially in a ppr format. TERob HouslerMartellus Bennett :excited: Tony SchefflerEvan MooreYou want uniqueness? This here is your dream team. KMason CrosbyCuz I needed oneDSTPackersCuz I'm a :homer:

Your going to be spotting the field 5 to 10 points at kicker at least half the weeks and problem the same at defense. I would have spent another $6-$12 at K/D to pick up those extra 10-20 pts. That's more points than Steve Smith will net you this year.
:bag: No wonder I suck at magic football.Surely every thing will have to fall in place. Bump this post if I even make it to week 10.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.