Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, siffoin said:

I'm a technical observer of market value.  If u think it's cheap,  I say go for it.  I'm comfortable with my take.

 

Gotcha.  I go strictly by fundamentals and not technicals.  By the way I never said it was cheap, it isn't right now.  It just isn't nearly as overvalued as the .com phase with PEs north of 30 and a 10 year Treasury north of 6%.  Today you have a PE of 20 and a 10 year Treasury at 1.60%.  Big big difference.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

Gotcha.  I go strictly by fundamentals and not technicals.  By the way I never said it was cheap, it isn't right now.  It just isn't nearly as overvalued as the .com phase with PEs north of 30 and a 10 year Treasury north of 6%.  Today you have a PE of 20 and a 10 year Treasury at 1.60%.  Big big difference.

I think I came off as a bit of a #####.  I apologize.  I'm not here to say the market is crashing because I don't believe that.  Perhaps an analogy would be like this.  There is a heavy snow pack,and conditions are ripe for an avalanche.  My work suggests that such conditions are present.  I'm in here telling you that such conditions are present.  It's possible that an avalanche does not occur.  And if an avalanche does not occur it doesn't mean that the conditions were not ripe for one.

I've become quite reluctant to post the type of market work I do because I'm not interested in I-Spats.  It's why I rarely post in here and don't post any charts publicly.  There's some other stuff I really wanted to put out there, but in the end it's not worth the battle with people who are obnoxiously aggressive and arrogant. I do want people to do well, and I think the purpose of my post today was to just give a heads up.  And I'm cool being wrong (my life is a whole lot easier if I am), and not here to argue the position.  But my position remains...this market is over-extended - I can't find a time when it was more.

If you or anyone has a successful investment strategy - my thoughts is stick with that and ignore anything from me.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Love 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, cosjobs said:

I'm kind of stupid on a lot of this. By $TAIL do you mean TAIL?

Or am I short selling TAIL?  or what?

You are buying into the etf.  Here's info.

$TAIL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, siffoin said:

You are buying into the etf.  Here's info.

$TAIL

Why do you use the $ sign before? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, cosjobs said:

Why do you use the $ sign before? 

Denotes a Ticker Symbol.

If I said go buy some TAIL - you might take that to go a strip club.

  • Like 1
  • Love 1
  • Laughing 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, siffoin said:

Let's not get ahead of ourselves.  It's a "process".  I will say this - pulling out 30 year old charts and the market has never been this over-extended - not even close.  1999 looks reasonable to what I'm seeing today.  I see 2 possibilities.

Current market is at about 1 sigma over 30 year run rate.  1999-2000 was a ~3 sigma event.  What do you see right now that gives you specific pause?

Appreciate the input, as always!

Edited by Sand

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, cosjobs said:

Why do you use the $ sign before? 

Can’t answer for him, but it’s standard to put the $ in front of stock tickets when you’re looking for info on Google, Twitter, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, siffoin said:

Denotes a Ticker Symbol.

If I said go buy some TAIL - you might take that to go a strip club.

BTW, never heard of TAIL before now.  Interesting item.  I might actually read the prospectus (:sleep:).

I've always had in my head if I really wanted to hedge I'd buy a combo of TMF and SH.  I may rethink this if TAIL is the ETF version of the plunge protection team.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Sand said:

Current market is at about 1 sigma over 30 year run rate.  1999-2000 was a ~3 sigma event.  What do you see right now that gives you specific pause?

Appreciate the input, as always!

I'll respond back tomorrow.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Sand said:

BTW, never heard of TAIL before now.  Interesting item.  I might actually read the prospectus (:sleep:).

I've always had in my head if I really wanted to hedge I'd buy a combo of TMF and SH.  I may rethink this if TAIL is the ETF version of the plunge protection team.

Would love to hear whatever conclusion you draw here.

Is 15% enough of a hedge for comfort?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, siffoin said:

I think I came off as a bit of a #####.  I apologize.  I'm not here to say the market is crashing because I don't believe that.  Perhaps an analogy would be like this.  There is a heavy snow pack,and conditions are ripe for an avalanche.  My work suggests that such conditions are present.  I'm in here telling you that such conditions are present.  It's possible that an avalanche does not occur.  And if an avalanche does not occur it doesn't mean that the conditions were not ripe for one.

I've become quite reluctant to post the type of market work I do because I'm not interested in I-Spats.  It's why I rarely post in here and don't post any charts publicly.  There's some other stuff I really wanted to put out there, but in the end it's not worth the battle with people who are obnoxiously aggressive and arrogant. I do want people to do well, and I think the purpose of my post today was to just give a heads up.  And I'm cool being wrong (my life is a whole lot easier if I am), and not here to argue the position.  But my position remains...this market is over-extended - I can't find a time when it was more.

If you or anyone has a successful investment strategy - my thoughts is stick with that and ignore anything from me.

There are a significant number of people here who love reading your thoughts and greatly appreciate the time you take to post them.

I started to say don't worry so much about what ipeople think, but that would pretty much render the purpose of my first sentence useless.

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

 

Is 15% enough of a hedge for comfort?

This part wasn't directed at sand. Just an additional, misplaced question that came to mind as I was reading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sand said:

BTW, never heard of TAIL before now.  Interesting item.  I might actually read the prospectus (:sleep:).

I've always had in my head if I really wanted to hedge I'd buy a combo of TMF and SH.  I may rethink this if TAIL is the ETF version of the plunge protection team.

Yes.  Understand there are likely better ways to hedge.  But they require a level of complexity.  You might not be able to initiate a trade in $TMF in a Vanguard account...or even Fidelity if you don't sign some form stating you are a high risk investor.  Some folks don't know how to properly utilize options or futures if they even have the ability to trade them.  So the idea for $TAIL is the "everyman's" hedge...something for Cosjobs to research and see if that might provide some protection without going full scale selling of his house/portfolio- especially in the present market environment.  Again - it might not be for everyone...but is an option.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Bossman said:

a $1 put on a $7 stock is what I call "juicy".

You can sell 20 Put contracts at $1 ... make $2k profit ... with very little risk because the stock price is so small.

I'm in for 40 ... so $4k between my $7 and $5 contracts. Not making me wealthy like my AMZN stocks but the extra few thousand certainly doesn't hurt my portfolio.

Worst case? NVAX would have to tank to $4 before the March strike ... the stock is put to me ... and at that I still break even.

I don't think a virus vaccine companies stock will be tanking in the next month or two. Just my opinion.

Good luck. I hope it works out for you. As a general rule of thumb, I'm not a seller of puts of speculative companies when it spans an earnings report. Might not seem likely, but a drop below $3 per share is absolutely possible in which case your 2K profit flips to a significant loss on one day if earnings disappoint. I don't know enough about the company to put odds on it. No matter, the odds are probably in your favor on this one. Just not the dice I want to roll on this one. The February puts would have been up my alley but I missed that window earlier this week.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, siffoin said:

You might not be able to initiate a trade in $TMF in a Vanguard account...or even Fidelity if you don't sign some form stating you are a high risk investor.  

I'm on Fidelity and I shot all those locks off. :D

1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Is 15% enough of a hedge for comfort?

A good question to ask yourself as you try to fall asleep tonight...

  • Laughing 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, pecorino said:

Good luck. I hope it works out for you. As a general rule of thumb, I'm not a seller of puts of speculative companies when it spans an earnings report. Might not seem likely, but a drop below $3 per share is absolutely possible in which case your 2K profit flips to a significant loss on one day if earnings disappoint. I don't know enough about the company to put odds on it. No matter, the odds are probably in your favor on this one. Just not the dice I want to roll on this one. The February puts would have been up my alley but I missed that window earlier this week.

Alright, if you like a Feb put then here's one I've been keeping to myself...

AGRX trading above $4 .... selling Feb 21 $2.50 puts at .45 

Fair warning ... about to announce FDA approval on product ... which is why this is so rich with only 8 days to expiration.

Sell 20 put contracts and take the $900.

You put up $4100 to profit $900. That right there is juicy.

Your risk is if FDA does not approve and stock drops below $2.05 ... which I could see this falling to $1.50 in that scenario.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh record highs in comeback from coronavirus slide

ETA:

Starting to think this Coronavirus is good for the market.

Investors taking their money out of Asian markets are investing it in the US.  That should continue as long as the US avoids large numbers of people infected with Coronavirus.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Considering adding a large chunk of gold to my portfolio.

Any recommendations as to where I should be looking?

$GOLD / $NEM / $SAND / $FNV ???

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just some information on the possible ramifications of the coronavirus on the global economy.   The four largest economies on the planet are the US, China, Germany and Japan in that order.   We know for a fact that the Chinese economy has been completely stalled by it.   Some experts project that Chinese GDP will drop from a 5-6% growth rate to a -6% growth rate.    The Germans just released numbers that show that their economy has stagnated.   This also would be an indication that the majoirty of the economies in the EU are also probably stagnating.   Japan has already gotten some exposure to the coronavirus--and the number of cases seems to be increasing there.   If this thing manifests into anything of concern in Japan---we're talking about 3 of the 4 worlds biggest economies suffering downturns or treading water.   In a global economy--there is no way that this wouldn't result in some collateral damage.  It's already causing some supply chain issues here.  Our markets have effectively brushed this thing off so far in regards to pricing--and I don't see how this won't catch up at some point . 

There have been many days where our markets are down in the pre-markets as that's when metrics and risk actually play a larger part in being factored in prices--but by the end of the trading day--the market is flat or up.  That's a clear sign that the market is being irrational and being primarily propelled by momentum.  Momentum can only last so long and at some point the markets will have to acknowledge and factor in risk.   This might not happen for a very long while--or it can happen next week--so I don't want to come across as being a fear monger or a pessimist.  I still have a lot of exposure in the market myself -- but I've also been cashing in on some profits. 

Edited by jvdesigns2002
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Sand said:

A good question to ask yourself as you try to fall asleep tonight...

Is that what the hedge is for? I'm long $WINE for that.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bossman said:

Considering adding a large chunk of gold to my portfolio.

Any recommendations as to where I should be looking?

$GOLD / $NEM / $SAND / $FNV ???

.

GOLD. Their balance sheet has been getting extremely strong, their CEO seems to be quite smart, they just raised their dividend, and they've taken their debt from $12B to $2B in the last 8 years.

If I would've understood the tax ramifications more in depth, I'd have owned them instead of IAU, now I own both as I begin trimming IAU and shifting more of that to GOLD. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

Just some information on the possible ramifications of the coronavirus on the global economy.   The four largest economies on the planet are the US, China, Germany and Japan in that order.   We know for a fact that the Chinese economy has been completely stalled by it.   Some experts project that Chinese GDP will drop from a 5-6% growth rate to a -6% growth rate.    The Germans just released numbers that show that their economy has stagnated.   This also would be an indication that the majoirty of the economies in the EU are also probably stagnating.   Japan has already gotten some exposure to the coronavirus--and the number of cases seems to be increasing there.   If this thing manifests into anything of concern in Japan---we're talking about 3 of the 4 worlds biggest economies suffering downturns or treading water.   In a global economy--there is no way that this wouldn't result in some collateral damage.  It's already causing some supply chain issues here.  Our markets have effectively brushed this thing off so far in regards to pricing--and I don't see how this won't catch up at some point . 

There have been many days where our markets are down in the pre-markets as that's when metrics and risk actually play a larger part in being factored in prices--but by the end of the trading day--the market is flat or up.  That's a clear sign that the market is being irrational and being primarily propelled by momentum.  Momentum can only last so long and at some point the markets will have to acknowledge and factor in risk.   This might not happen for a very long while--or it can happen next week--so I don't want to come across as being a fear monger or a pessimist.  I still have a lot of exposure in the market myself -- but I've also been cashing in on some profits. 

It's the central banks, it is that simple, imo. 

Here; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL 

So the balance sheet went from $1T to $4T, they tried reducing it, the market tanks, they obviously reverse course, and now we're closing back in on where it was before they tried to normalize ( :lmao: ) it. GREATEST ECONOMY WE'VE EVER SEEN!

You'll notice, when they started pumping it back up again in September to provide liquidity to the repo market (really just covert QE 4), the market started flying again... And wallah, we're up 10% since their pump began. 

#GOLD (they can't print that from thin air)

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

GOLD. Their balance sheet has been getting extremely strong, their CEO seems to be quite smart, they just raised their dividend, and they've taken their debt from $12B to $2B in the last 8 years.

If I would've understood the tax ramifications more in depth, I'd have owned them instead of IAU, now I own both as I begin trimming IAU and shifting more of that to GOLD. 

Had an order in for 600 shares this morning and did not trigger. Revised order for 1000 at the now $1 higher price tag. 

Should have just paid market instead of limit order. Oh well. In it for the long haul anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bossman said:

Had an order in for 600 shares this morning and did not trigger. Revised order for 1000 at the now $1 higher price tag. 

Should have just paid market instead of limit order. Oh well. In it for the long haul anyway.

I was going to buy twice as much as I did when I noted the buy on Monday... I mulled it over and decided I would buy half my position in the low $18s and then DCA. When I looked at the trading range, they looked like they were near the top of it (still are), but I think they might be setting up to break out of that range... Nonetheless, I'm glad I put a nice chunk in, but really, kicking myself for not buying the whole lot. 

Regardless, I feel relatively safe here, while not shielding myself from gains. Honestly, if they keep doing what they're doing, and the FED pumps their balance sheet like I anticipate, I can see this doubling in 5 years. 

To me the biggest risks here are A) substantially higher interest rates B) the Fed turning the printing presses off... I see neither of those likely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

It's the central banks, it is that simple, imo. 

Here; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL 

So the balance sheet went from $1T to $4T, they tried reducing it, the market tanks, they obviously reverse course, and now we're closing back in on where it was before they tried to normalize ( :lmao: ) it. GREATEST ECONOMY WE'VE EVER SEEN!

You'll notice, when they started pumping it back up again in September to provide liquidity to the repo market (really just covert QE 4), the market started flying again... And wallah, we're up 10% since their pump began. 

#GOLD (they can't print that from thin air)

Oh I agree. Ive been slowly moving some of my assets into precious metals for many years now.  You and I have been mentioning that play for a while here on this thread.  It’s done me well so far—and I do think that once the market loses some of its momentum from the Coronavirus, once people realize the financial engineering that you brought up from the central bank side, not to mention that there is still a lot of geopolitical risk out there—that something has to give.   I do think that if the market pushes its way past the $30k Dow level, that this possible correction might happen later rather than sooner.  I’m not a chartist by any means..but it seems like anytime the market gets close to that $30k level—it kinda bounces back and reapproaches it again.   That could be a natural resistance level for it to go through—but it also could be a resistance level as a  pseudo-floor should it clear it.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Bossman said:

$GOLD / $NEM / $SAND / $FNV ???

Whoa, back up the truck here.  You mean I can buy myself?

This changes everything.

 

3 hours ago, Bossman said:

Considering adding a large chunk of gold to my portfolio.

Any recommendations as to where I should be looking?

$GOLD / $NEM / $SAND / $FNV ???

As a serious answer I'd probably do something like 25% UGLD, 75% SHY.

  • Thanks 1
  • Laughing 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bossman said:

Had an order in for 600 shares this morning and did not trigger. Revised order for 1000 at the now $1 higher price tag. 

Should have just paid market instead of limit order. Oh well. In it for the long haul anyway.

Yeah, I was considering it too earlier this week, but already have a bit of GDX and IAU. I'm reluctant to get in now as it's went up 6% just this week. Now if I can get back in around $ 18.50-19? Sure. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, siffoin said:

I'll respond back tomorrow.  

Ok.  As I started to think about this - I came to the healthy conclusion that what would be necessary is a Chapter on Siff’s Technical Trading 101.  But who has the time for that and who wants to read my ramblings - No one. So let me begin with a Cliff Notes Version.

  1. Everything I do I’m looking at it from a technical perspective.  Why? Charts don’t lie. People do. So I trust the charts more than I do some analyst. 
  2. I have spent years developing a series of charts and indicators that work for me.  1000’s of hours staring at these charts (likely 10's of 1000's). Because of that, I can easily identify when things seem in or out of order.  I wouldn’t expect anyone else to have the same level of understanding of my charts that I do. Often I look at someone else's charts, I don’t have any clue of their interpretation.  And I realize many people probably feel that same towards my own work. 
  3. My work focuses mostly around TRENDs.  Is $XYZ generally moving up (Bull Trend) or is $XYZ generally moving down (Bear Trend)?  Trends are related to specific Time Frames (TF) too. A TF might be 1 minute (the price movement of $XYZ over a minute = 1 bar print); 1 hour; 1 day; 1 week; 1 month.  I guess you could go out further, but TFs longer than 1 month are of ZERO help to any investor.
  4. The longer the TF the more weight and power it holds.  So a 1 Month TF > 1 Week > 1 Day > 1 Hour > 5 Min > 1 Min.  There can be conflicting trends on the same $XYZ depending on the TF.  IE: The Monthly Trend could be Bullish but the Daily Trend could be Bearish.
  5. Always pay attention to the TF > than the one you are following for your primary investment decision.  What I mean by this is - let’s say $XYZ gives a bear trend (short) signal on an Hourly TF. However, the Daily TF is Bullish.  In this scenario we might expect $XYZ to decline over the next few days (maybe a week or 2), to a support level on the Daily TF.  THAT spot represents a BUY. An aggressive trader might look to profit by shorting $XYZ on the Hourly TF down to the Daily TF Support Level, where he would close the Hourly TF Short position, and go long.  It’s not a game of perfect here. It’s a war that requires patience, skill, attentiveness, and a willingness to get scarred along the way.
  6. Moving Average Lines - represent an average of Price over Time. I use moving average lines as a way to represent Value; Fair Value; and Over Value (That’s a real basic explanation). So 3 Moving Average Lines (MAL).
  7. Price within a TF has a very natural progression.  In simple terms it WANTS to hug around Fair Value. Now in a Bull Trend Price will move up and towards the Over Valued MAL.  That is expected. However when price extends beyond the Over Valued MAL naturally it will want to correct. When it extends far beyond an Over Valued MAL for an extended period of time when the correction comes it is probable to be deeper than a normal correction.  And by correction I’m talking about correcting back to healthy levels of support within the trend. Obviously any correction phase runs the risk of flipping the trend. So imo, the best, healthiest and most profitable moves are when we have a Bull Trend that rises between a Fair Valued and Over Valued MAL - not extending too far above the Over Valued MAL for any length of time and corrective phases are moves back to the Fair Value MAL or just below that.
  8. Whew.  Let’s let that all soak in for a second.
  9. As I explained above.  The Monthly Chart is the One to Rule Them All.  While the Bear Market of 2008-09 bottomed in March 09 - the current Monthly Trend did not confirm  bullish until Dec 2010. However since then - the Bull Trend has remained in tact. Even though there have been corrective periods within that trend. May 2011-Dec 2011; May 2015-Feb 2016; May 2018-Dec 2018 - would all be examples of corrective phases within the current Bull market Trend on a Monthly TF.
  10. Currently, the market is extended far beyond the Over Valued MAL.  Further than it has ever been for the past 30 years. In addition it has hopped above and outside the 10 year Bull Market Channel for the past 3 months (something I’ve never seen).  On top of that there are a variety of cycles that are coming together all suggesting the odds favor a corrective move soonish.
  11. I’m in no way saying if there is a corrective move that it will flip the market to a Bearish Trend.  What I am suggesting is that a corrective move is necessary and healthy in order to maintain the current Bull Trend. And that by recognizing the dangerousness of these current conditions one might better prepare himself for the emotional battle that is potentially on the horizon.  And not only that- profit . Trust me a move down towards $SPY 290ish and lots of people will be ####ting their pants. Corrective moves aren’t fun even when you are on the winning side - at least to me because they bring in the possibility of a LT flip of the market trend (From Bull to Bear).  My life is a hell of a lot easier in a bull trend of extended irrational exuberance. Because I don’t know what the future will bring, I acknowledge I could be wrong. However, my present interpretation of my charts suggests the conditions are ripe for a corrective move sometime in the nearish future, and I’m looking how to protect and preserve my gains without having to panic out of positions if such a move occurs, and have a plan in place if value presents to take advantage of that when most people won’t.
  12. $GYPR is meant as a joke and a heads up.  Basically saying PAY ATTENTION.
Edited by siffoin
  • Like 10
  • Thanks 7
  • Love 1
  • Thinking 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Bossman said:

Considering adding a large chunk of gold to my portfolio.

Any recommendations as to where I should be looking?

$GOLD / $NEM / $SAND / $FNV ???

.

Added 500 shares of GLD today. I’m risk off for the next 30 days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, siffoin said:

Ok.  As I started to think about this - I came to the healthy conclusion that what would be necessary is a Chapter on Siff’s Technical Trading 101.  But who has the time for that and who wants to read my ramblings - No one. So let me begin with a Cliff Notes Version.

  1. Everything I do I’m looking at it from a technical perspective.  Why? Charts don’t lie. People do. So I trust the charts more than I do some analyst. 
  2. I have spent years developing a series of charts and indicators that work for me.  1000’s of hours staring at these charts (likely 10's of 1000's). Because of that, I can easily identify when things seem in or out of order.  I wouldn’t expect anyone else to have the same level of understanding of my charts that I do. Often I look at someone else's charts, I don’t have any clue of their interpretation.  And I realize many people probably feel that same towards my own work. 
  3. My work focuses mostly around TRENDs.  Is $XYZ generally moving up (Bull Trend) or is $XYZ generally moving down (Bear Trend)?  Trends are related to specific Time Frames (TF) too. A TF might be 1 minute (the price movement of $XYZ over a minute = 1 bar print); 1 hour; 1 day; 1 week; 1 month.  I guess you could go out further, but TFs longer than 1 month are of ZERO help to any investor.
  4. The longer the TF the more weight and power it holds.  So a 1 Month TF > 1 Week > 1 Day > 1 Hour > 5 Min > 1 Min.  There can be conflicting trends on the same $XYZ depending on the TF.  IE: The Monthly Trend could be Bullish but the Daily Trend could be Bearish.
  5. Always pay attention to the TF > than the one you are following for your primary investment decision.  What I mean by this is - let’s say $XYZ gives a bear trend (short) signal on an Hourly TF. However, the Daily TF is Bullish.  In this scenario we might expect $XYZ to decline over the next few days (maybe a week or 2), to a support level on the Daily TF.  THAT spot represents a BUY. An aggressive trader might look to profit by shorting $XYZ on the Hourly TF down to the Daily TF Support Level, where he would close the Hourly TF Short position, and go long.  It’s not a game of perfect here. It’s a war that requires patience, skill, attentiveness, and a willingness to get scarred along the way.
  6. Moving Average Lines - represent an average of Price over Time. I use moving average lines as a way to represent Value; Fair Value; and Over Value (That’s a real basic explanation). So 3 Moving Average Lines (MAL).
  7. Price within a TF has a very natural progression.  In simple terms it WANTS to hug around Fair Value. Now in a Bull Trend Price will move up and towards the Over Valued MAL.  That is expected. However when price extends beyond the Over Valued MAL naturally it will want to correct. When it extends far beyond an Over Valued MAL for an extended period of time when the correction comes it is probable to be deeper than a normal correction.  And by correction I’m talking about correcting back to healthy levels of support within the trend. Obviously any correction phase runs the risk of flipping the trend. So imo, the best, healthiest and most profitable moves are when we have a Bull Trend that rises between a Fair Valued and Over Valued MAL - not extending too far above the Over Valued MAL for any length of time and corrective phases are moves back to the Fair Value MAL or just below that.
  8. Whew.  Let’s let that all soak in for a second.
  9. As I explained above.  The Monthly Chart is the One to Rule Them All.  While the Bear Market of 2008-09 bottomed in March 09 - the current Monthly Trend did not confirm  bullish until Dec 2010. However since then - the Bull Trend has remained in tact. Even though there have been corrective periods within that trend. May 2011-Dec 2011; May 2015-Feb 2016; May 2018-Dec 2018 - would all be examples of corrective phases within the current Bull market Trend on a Monthly TF.
  10. Currently, the market is extended far beyond the Over Valued MAL.  Further than it has ever been for the past 30 years. In addition it has hopped above and outside the 10 year Bull Market Channel for the past 3 months (something I’ve never seen).  On top of that there are a variety of cycles that are coming together all suggesting the odds favor a corrective move soonish.
  11. I’m in no way saying if there is a corrective move that it will flip the market to a Bearish Trend.  What I am suggesting is that a corrective move is necessary and healthy in order to maintain the current Bull Trend. And that by recognizing the dangerousness of these current conditions one might better prepare himself for the emotional battle that is potentially on the horizon.  And not only that- profit . Trust me a move down towards $SPY 290ish and lots of people will be ####ting their pants. Corrective moves aren’t fun even when you are on the winning side - at least to me because they bring in the possibility of a LT flip of the market trend (From Bull to Bear).  My life is a hell of a lot easier in a bull trend of extended irrational exuberance. Because I don’t know what the future will bring, I acknowledge I could be wrong. However, my present interpretation of my charts suggests the conditions are ripe for a corrective move sometime in the nearish future, and I’m looking how to protect and preserve my gains without having to panic out of positions if such a move occurs, and have a plan in place if value presents to take advantage of that when most people won’t.
  12. $GYPR is meant as a joke and a heads up.  Basically saying PAY ATTENTION.

This is why I ####### love FBG’s.  Never in a million years would one expect to get posts like this from a make believe football site!   

I’m going to need to reread this a few times to wrap my head around it but thank you sif for taking the time to post it and letting us crawl around in your thought process for a bit.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gawain said:

Added 500 shares of GLD today. I’m risk off for the next 30 days.

I had a boat load of cash sitting on the sidelines and after reading COS portfolio decided to get some gold.

Turns out today was a day late. "Revised" Limit order still hasn't triggered. I'll wait for a better entry point ... if there ever is one.

Edited by Bossman
"Revised"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, chet said:

Adding 20-40K CYDY every day.  

You a board member yet?

  • Laughing 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Returned 7% on GOLD this week, almost want to sell, almost. 

ETA:

I think if it closes 3 days in a row over $20, you'll want to enter. Right now it is at the top of its range which is a dangerous entry point. 

Edited by fantasycurse42

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Big thanks to Siff for his post and for continuing to venture into this thread and be active from time to time. There aren't enough :thumbup: emojis to apply to your posts! Those same :thumbup:emojis go out to all of you willing to take the time to explain your positions and educate us with those explanations. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

Maybe @siffoin can do some technical analysis on GOLD and CYDY 

$GOLD might be a good example of what I'm trying to explain.  How when price moves beyond an Over-Valued MAL it will naturally correct back to Fair/Value.  (* Caution - I don't use StockCharts for my primary charts, but subscribe cause I like to play around with them and it's easier to do that with their system than mine).  I did a simple annotation here.

$GOLD

$CYDY is a gamble type of play.  Charts don't really work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, siffoin said:

$GOLD might be a good example of what I'm trying to explain.  How when price moves beyond an Over-Valued MAL it will naturally correct back to Fair/Value.  (* Caution - I don't use StockCharts for my primary charts, but subscribe cause I like to play around with them and it's easier to do that with their system than mine).  I did a simple annotation here.

$GOLD

$CYDY is a gamble type of play.  Charts don't really work.

Wow, so it's WAY over valued at the current rate, as fair value is around $17.73? That's a huge premium.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/15/2020 at 11:10 PM, pecorino said:

Heard one of the Najarian brotherscalls  pimp the January 17 calls of SPCE back in late December saying that some kind of PR or news was going to drop. I bought some and the stock did nothing, hovering around $11.50 plus or minus a quarter so I figured he was blowing smoke. Since the strike date was coming up this Friday, I dumped them last week on 1/8, salvaging some of my premium. Of course, I couldn't help but follow the ticker and you can guess what happened. No embellishment necessary: within minutes of me dumping the options, the share price began creeping up (this was the afternoon of 1/8) and then there were some decent pops and indeed a PR event that sent the stock massively higher. I lost $600 on the trade. Had I held another week, I'd be up about $4000 or so.

Out of bitterness, I have not really followed what the PR was that sent the price upwards. I tend to think it is a temporary thing and there's no way I'd touch the stock even if I had not gone through the trauma of the past week. It's still very speculative and very volatile. You get the Branson name, and it is kind of a cool idea, and of course it could be a counter-intuitive stock like Tesla which rises because people think it's a sexy company and they buy it. But, again, I think it is gambling more than investing at this point.

Whoops. SPCE rocketing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, chet said:

Adding 20-40K CYDY every day.  

At what point do you start having a say in operations? You've got to be one of the larger shareholders 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/13/2020 at 10:44 PM, Bossman said:

Alright, if you like a Feb put then here's one I've been keeping to myself...

AGRX trading above $4 .... selling Feb 21 $2.50 puts at .45 

Fair warning ... about to announce FDA approval on product ... which is why this is so rich with only 8 days to expiration.

Sell 20 put contracts and take the $900.

You put up $4100 to profit $900. That right there is juicy.

Your risk is if FDA does not approve and stock drops below $2.05 ... which I could see this falling to $1.50 in that scenario.

Nobody else here got a piece of this?

Seems this one panned out for me but I'll admit, was risky. Sold 80 put contracts that paid me $3800. 2/21 exp / strike @ $2.50.  

..... 2/14 AGRX - FDA approved for a new contraceptive for women ... as I understand, a weekly patch vs a pill every day.

Announcement of approval was made after hours Friday which I assume is what limited the stock price from moving much. 

I expect this to shoot up when markets open Tues a.m.

Twirla Approval

I grabbed 1000 shares just before the announcement. Probably grab some more Tuesday.

I'm a noob, so please do your own reasearch .... but imo Some here might want to grab a few shares pre-market if possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/13/2020 at 6:41 AM, Otis said:

Cross posting this here:

 

Stupid question maybe:

If we’re confident that the market will continue to go up over the long haul, why shouldn’t I be putting all or a large chunk of my portfolio into an ETF like UDOW, Pro Shares Ultra Pro Dow 30, which tracks the Dow but gives you 3x the movement in either direction.  I look back just 10 years on that and if I got 15 or 20 years of that return before I retire, I’d retire a pretty wealthy dude. 
 

What am I missing here?  Why doesn’t everyone do this?

There is some potential merit to the idea of ‘lifecycle investing‘. That is, when you are young and don’t have as much money lever up so your exposure to the market is relatively consistent through time (paraphrasing but that’s my understanding). Given where you are in your career and your portfolio size likely not recommended.

I’ve been thinking of trying something similar to what’s discussed here but haven’t had the time to fully wrap my head around it.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

$INO claiming they now have a vaccine for Corona ... just hours after having access to the virus.

Might be worth throwing a few bucks at Tuesday.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bossman said:

$INO claiming they now have a vaccine for Corona ... just hours after having access to the virus.

Might be worth throwing a few bucks at Tuesday.

 

This is like two weeks old no?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, [icon] said:

At what point do you start having a say in operations? You've got to be one of the larger shareholders 

Not even close, I don't think.  

Our CEO is the most important advisor to CYDY and I have his ear.  So indirectly, I got that going for me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/14/2020 at 2:20 PM, fantasycurse42 said:

You a board member yet?

No and don't have enough stock to merit a seat--yet.  :lol: 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/14/2020 at 2:26 PM, skycriesmary said:

Wow, so it's WAY over valued at the current rate, as fair value is around $17.73? That's a huge premium.

That’s right.  On the Daily TF $GOLD is over-extended.  Does that mean it’s going to drop? Odds are that either it will drop back down to at least the Green MAL or down to Value.  Another possibility is that it stays flat for a period of time and the MALs catch-up to price.

Here’s the thing.  In a perfect world $GOLD would have been on your permanent “shopping list.”  And you would have taken at least an initial entry back in June - when the trend first turned Bullish.  Had you done that, you’d have a pretty nice return already secured and you wouldn’t need to worry so much about it’s short-term (over) Value.

This is where investors can wind up getting caught in the emotionalism of a stock position.

$GOLD is likely to go higher from here however in the short term don’t be surprised if there is a price decline towards $17.50-$18.50ish.

Where people get in trouble is they do things like this.

  1. See the big run on $GOLD and think to themselves “I want a piece of that action.”
  2. They go long at $19.75, but they are going to be smart about it so they put in a 10% stop loss.
  3. Unfortunately, they purchased $GOLD at a price where it is technically over-valued - and they watch in dismay as it drops towards their Stop-Loss at 17.75.  They get stopped out and think “Ok...well at least I was smart and took my lumps before it got too bad.” However, the point they get stopped out is pretty much the level where $GOLD is technically fair valued. And because $GOLD is in a strong Bull Trend they watch from the side as it then rallies to $25.
  4. “I suck”; “You just can’t time the market”; “I’d be better just hiring a financial adviser” --NO...you failed because you didn’t recognize value in relation to the trend AND you set an arbitrary stop loss that had ZERO relation to current price and current Trend (ie: your stop loss happened to be the exact level where price and value meet which in a bull market equals a BUY signal).

This is why you build a shopping list of potential targets and wait patiently for the stock, it’s trend and value come to you.  

Here’s the other thing.  No One knows the future. Odds favor the scenarios I’ve laid out. But this time I could be wrong. Give me xnumber of similar setups and the odds would favor my approach at being profitable many more times than not.  It's not a game of perfect.  It's a game of being patient and smart.

 

Edited by siffoin
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 4
  • Love 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

Gotta appreciate the confidence if nothing else

 

I feed off it. Looking for more cash to throw at CYDY.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.