I keep hearing the peak stuff, but I think it’s shortsighted. There is the other side of the peak, and the second we become lax (and we’re a fairly stupid and shortsighted society), it comes back and we’re on our way right back to that peak.
In terms of recessions, where would you put one that completely eliminates productivity worldwide? I’d personally put it on the much worse side than a typical recession, especially one creating wide scale death, which means we should fall much more than a typical recession.
ETA:
Also, 2019 was strictly P/E expansion, to the tune of a 30% gain. So the S&P brought us to highly elevated levels on hopes for growth, all we’ve done is remove 2019. P/E fell to 8 in 2008/2009.