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52 minutes ago, Random said:

What is the one stock (or stocks) you would buy if starting today?  Would you just divide it among the master list?  Would you go all in today?

Where were you two months ago?

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I see we're getting a big pre Nader conference call bounce in CYDY.  He's done a good job setting expectations low.

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3 minutes ago, Todem said:

Where were you two months ago?

Mostly FZROX and FZILX.  Should I just stay put or move some (more) out?  Have moved about 30% to cash/CEF over the past few weeks.  This is for my main retirement account, not the CYDY/MGM/BLMN account (thanks!).  

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2 minutes ago, djmich said:

I see we're getting a big pre Nader conference call bounce in CYDY.  He's done a good job setting expectations low.

I'll admit past experience + our boy Chet's been making me think I should sell before close & rebuy. That said I will probably do nothing. 

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1 hour ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

Since everyone seems to like the gambling stocks, how about William Hill?  WIMHY, ~6.60 now, was 10.50 last October

They are in a number of Nevada sports books and they have in game betting.  If sports comes back, this is likely going to climb more.

 

I'd been holding Poker Stars ever since they were Amaya gaming back in the olden days of this thread (or its previous incarnation). Held both the PokerStars brand and FanDuel. Just got acquired by Flutter, which owns PaddyPower/BetFair in the UK, SportsBet, FOX Bet, and TVG. 

Of course the brokerage I had the PokerStars with apparently doesn't support the London Stock Exchange so it looks like I'm being cut out until they straighten out my position and I can buy back in with an OTC ticker. 

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27 minutes ago, Todem said:

Where were you two months ago?

This is the question I asked my advisor today when he called on my managed funds to tell me he thought we should be a higher percentage in equities.

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54 minutes ago, NajehHejan said:

Got into DKNG this morning at 30.00 even. Kicking myself for not getting in when TripItUp mentioned it in the low 20's. Gonna ride it for a while though - looks like more green ahead!

I don’t think there is a good entry point for this right now. Bummed I missed it. 

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2 hours ago, JoeSteeler said:

anyone else holding MESO?

 

No but just noticed it's on my biotech watch list.

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Thanks to advice from this board I recently transferred my Roth IRA from to Fidelity specifically to avoid brokerage fees for CYDY trades.

Received a call from Fidelity today regarding my CYDY stock. They advised that they needed info regarding where I had acquired CYDY. They stated that there was a problem in that Cytodyn was a shell company and that stock issued by Cytodyn directly to investors needed to be listed under the previous company's name and not the shell company. It sounded like there was a difference between CYDY and Fidelity regarding SEC requirements.

Fidelity stated that there were millions of dollars of SEC fines involved. Also said that the clerk at Cytodyn had erroneously removed the name of the previous company as being the company of issuance.  However, Fidelity said that this problem did not effect investors who had purchased shares through a brokerage but effected shares purchased directly from the company.

I was asked to send my PNC documentation showing the purchase of my shares through PNC.

Regarding the fines involved it sounded like Fidelity was at risk and not investors. 

Anyway thought you should be aware of this. Its my best understanding. Shorts may run with this.

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So stocks jumped on the MRNA vaccine news.  MRNA since down a lot and no vaccine anytime soon. 

Stonks go up even more.  

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1 minute ago, ghostguy123 said:

So stocks jumped on the MRNA vaccine news.  MRNA since down a lot and no vaccine anytime soon. 

Stonks go up even more.  

Less about a specific vaccine now and more about general optimism regarding the virus and the economy opening back up.

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12 minutes ago, Shula-holic said:

This is the question I asked my advisor today when he called on my managed funds to tell me he thought we should be a higher percentage in equities.

What was his response?  Lol

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Dow, S&P, Nas, Russell, all up.   Even the VIX.  Don't see that too often.     

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@chet how do we ask questions on the CYDY call?

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55 minutes ago, eaganwildcats said:

I'll admit past experience + our boy Chet's been making me think I should sell before close & rebuy. That said I will probably do nothing. 

Thus far regretting doing nothing lol.

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56 minutes ago, eaganwildcats said:

I'll admit past experience + our boy Chet's been making me think I should sell before close & rebuy. That said I will probably do nothing. 

We are about to find out.  Feuerstein with a negative tweet that just got picked up by a lot of twitter shorts.

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Just now, FreeBaGeL said:

We are about to find out.  Feuerstein with a negative tweet that just got picked up by a lot of twitter shorts.

I do not disagree with his assessment of this call. 

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Posted (edited)

Uplisting to nasdaq!

 

edit: didn’t say Nasdaq - might be nyse

Edited by The Ref
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3 minutes ago, The Ref said:

Uplisting to nasdaq!

details?  I just had to get off it..

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3 minutes ago, The Ref said:

Uplisting to nasdaq!

 

edit: didn’t say Nasdaq - might be nyse

Well that is newsy

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40 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

So stocks jumped on the MRNA vaccine news.  MRNA since down a lot and no vaccine anytime soon. 

Stonks go up even more.  

Well market seemed up on Novanax vaccine news so that would hurt MRNA but helps stocks. I do think some of that is air especially when you hear doctors caution about timelines for the vaccine. 

I do think the general reopening has been positive. You've seen the states that are reopening at least not closing back down which would have caused stocks to go down a bunch. Still seems ahead of itself but that would explain why MRNA is down but market is up. 

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Sounds like NYSE is going to be the route but nothing definite still working on it.

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1 minute ago, sporthenry said:

Well market seemed up on Novanax vaccine news so that would hurt MRNA but helps stocks. I do think some of that is air especially when you hear doctors caution about timelines for the vaccine. 

I do think the general reopening has been positive. You've seen the states that are reopening at least not closing back down which would have caused stocks to go down a bunch. Still seems ahead of itself but that would explain why MRNA is down but market is up. 

The one worry is that if the reopening hits a snag, there’s a lot of froth built up ignoring all the bad economic numbers that are real. You can see it in here that people think it’s hysterical that anyone would think there might be a dip again. Reminds me of February when CV impact at all was shrugged off like it could never happen. Maybe we just say F it just keep everything open, but it sure seems like people are way too optimistic.

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1 hour ago, McBokonon said:

This thing is an animal.

Ugh, I had been trying not to look at SE for a while. Got in at $20 a while ago and sold at $35. :lmao: 

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7 minutes ago, The General said:

I don't monitor this but that seems like kinda a big sell.

I wonder if it’s some sort of automatic thing that happens after hours. 

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Is anyone in the queue to ask the question for Chet? I am having trouble getting in 

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CYDY

Expect agreement with investment bank this weekend

Expect exciting uplisting news next week

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So the only good news is that NP is saying we will be uplisted at some point?

Ugh, that's not going to move the needle one bit.

Just caught the very end, they only have 50 of the 75 patients enrolled for the current phase 2/3 trial?

This is not going to play well if that is the news.

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9 minutes ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

Feurenstein seems to be on the attack right now but not posting anything of merit.  Just posted a picture of a sinking ship  (CYDY)

 

 

I don't know who this dude is and it doesn't seem I'm missing out on much. 

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2 hours ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

Since everyone seems to like the gambling stocks, how about William Hill?  WIMHY, ~6.60 now, was 10.50 last October

They are in a number of Nevada sports books and they have in game betting.  If sports comes back, this is likely going to climb more.

I looked into WIMHY and in my experience, when you have a parabolic stock like DKNG, you're better off just being in the winner. You really can't use SOTP because it just never seems to close the gap on a valuation perspective.Just look at TSLA vs any other OEM or NFLX vs a DIS. Maybe just because they aren't pure plays but if you used a NFLX multiple of DIS+ as some here talked about, you're probably getting everything else for pennies on the dollar. 

As far as WIMHY, it only has 8% of its revenue from the US. Yes, that is to be expected since it's a growing market and that should grow but their retail business in the UK is likely saturated and they're actually facing headwinds in it. Similar with their online business. 

ERI, the casino operator, actually owns 20% of William Hill USA, which will eventually IPO, in exchange for giving it access to its states . I believe there is some uncertainty what they'll do with with the Caesars properties. Could benefit WIMHY as well but I kinda like the casinos and ERI to get exposure to WIMHY. I mean personally, I think these moves in sports betting stocks are stupid. I'm long a bit of DKNG in anticipation of the sports reopenings with no fans. I'll ride it but I'm getting ready to dump it. These things are more valuable than the casinos they rely on to get access to. These casinos didn't give away access for free. Lot of them have revenue sharing agreements. Market is likely to be over-saturated. 

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1 hour ago, Shula-holic said:

This is the question I asked my advisor today when he called on my managed funds to tell me he thought we should be a higher percentage in equities.

Holy crap man.

Ironically after big events like this is when I acquire new clients and grow my book of business the most. Because of exactly what you just said. 

 

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1 minute ago, Todem said:

Holy crap man.

Ironically after big events like this is when I acquire new clients and grow my book of business the most. Because of exactly what you just said. 

 

Yeah I mean I get hindsight is 20/20 and all, but that really kind of irritated me.  Granted when we spoke in March I had significant new funds I thought I'd be investing that due to capital/cash needs for my business I had to have a change of plans on and leave in the business.  So those new funds would have increased my equity exposure and now you have to re-allocate existing assets to do that rather than taking new funds to do it.  Also granted that I could/should have sold bond fund assets out of my self directed SEP and reallocated them to equities myself.  Long term I know I should have more in equity exposure because the way I initially built my worth was business driven and I erred on the side of having excess liquidity.  But that call given where we are today and where we were just 60 days ago took me aback. 

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26 minutes ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

So the only good news is that NP is saying we will be uplisted at some point?

Ugh, that's not going to move the needle one bit.

Just caught the very end, they only have 50 of the 75 patients enrolled for the current phase 2/3 trial?

This is not going to play well if that is the news.

Did say if they didn't have 75 in two weeks that he would seek board approval to go to FDA with interim results. Had the impression that there were more than 50 but less than 75 so far.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, stbugs said:

The one worry is that if the reopening hits a snag, there’s a lot of froth built up ignoring all the bad economic numbers that are real. You can see it in here that people think it’s hysterical that anyone would think there might be a dip again. Reminds me of February when CV impact at all was shrugged off like it could never happen. Maybe we just say F it just keep everything open, but it sure seems like people are way too optimistic.

Yeah, I mean I'm probably one of the more bearish people here so I'm sure some of the chirping was directed at me. But I actually lightened up some shorts a few weeks ago given you had states reopening and most seem to think the summer will be relatively fine. I just moved more to cash. You have states reopening and while data doesn't seem great, it isn't lock it back down again. So while Q2 numbers will be abysmal, companies will just say July numbers were flat or only down x% and give the market hope. Heck, July may even be up since you will have pent up demand and consumers will actually have money for now. 

By my estimate, the Russell 3000, which accounts for ~98% of US market cap, is now only down ~$4T from it's peak and $2.7T from the beginning of the year. At the bottom, the market was down over $11.5T. I mean what are the bull arguments from here? Yes, record Fed intervention and stimulus. The stimulus likely did a good job of offsetting losses until now but what about going forward? I suppose you can bet on another round of stimulus but that is only because they see the depth of what is happening. It won't be free and they won't do it if we get a V-shaped recovery. The only other argument that Siegel made today is that this is essentially diverting wealth from outside the stock market to companies inside it. I.e. your local diner closes so we'll all be forced to eat at Outback. I don't have a great read on that but that seems like a fine line to thread. We're going to wreck the economy enough to put all the small businesses out of business but not so much to have us fall into a long recession. I also think with the economy being 2/3 consumer driven spending, we're in for more hurt than a more manufacturing focused economy. 

If I wanted to get cute, I'd say you could probably stay long through the reopening into the summer and ride 2Q earnings. Depending on how the market reacts until then, guidance for Q3 earnings is likely to be positive. So then sell before we get into the fall when the lack  of jobs and the potential for a 2nd wave really picks back up. However, I'm not trying to get too cute. I have a feeling the smart money may pull the rug sooner than later in anticipation of all that. I also think the Fed might step away from the market a bit. They achieved what they intended. Reopened the markets. They also may want to rein in the equity markets especially in light of the broader economy.  

Edited by sporthenry
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Question for any of you guys who own a business or have direct investment in one.  How do you look at your personal asset allocation in regards to your capital invested in your company? 

It's a separate line item for me but I've always viewed it as being akin to being in equities when assessing my balances.  If you were to look at my equity exposure percentage it's very small, but if you add both it and my capital inside my business together it is more normal for someone my age I believe.  I'm doing some soul searching on allocations.  I'm 45 years old and am sitting around 58% equities/business; 11% real estate, 13% bonds, 19% cash/equivalents.

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3 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

Yeah, I mean I'm probably one of the more bearish people here so I'm sure some of the chirping was directed at me. But I actually lightened up some shorts a few weeks ago given you had states reopening and most seem to think the summer will be relatively fine. I just moved more to cash. You have states reopening and while data doesn't seem great, it isn't lock it back down again. So while Q2 numbers will be abysmal, companies will just say July numbers were flat or only down x% and give the market hope. Heck, July may even be up since you will have pent up demand and consumers will actually have money for now. 

By my estimate, the Russell 3000, which accounts for ~98% of US market cap, is now only down ~$4T from it's peak and $2.7T from the beginning of the year. At the bottom, the market was down over $11.5T. I mean what are the bull arguments from here? Yes, record Fed intervention and stimulus. The stimulus likely did a good job of offsetting losses until now but what about going forward? I suppose you can bet on another round of stimulus but that is only because they see the depth of what is happening. It won't be free and they won't do it if we get a V-shaped recovery. The only other argument that Siegel made today is that this is essentially diverting wealth from outside the stock market to companies inside it. I.e. your local diner closes so we'll all be forced to eat at Outback. I don't have a great read on that but that seems like a fine line to thread. We're going to wreck the economy enough to put all the small businesses out of business but not so much to have us fall into a long recession. I also think with the economy being 2/3 consumer driven spending, we're in for more hurt than a more manufacturing focused economy. 

If I wanted to get cute, I'd say you could probably stay long through the reopening into the summer and ride 2Q earnings. Depending on how the market reacts until then, guidance for Q3 earnings is likely to be positive. So then sell before we get into the fall ad jobs and the potential for a 2nd wave really picks back up. However, I'm not trying to get too cute. I have a feeling the smart money may pull the rug sooner than later in anticipation of all that. I also think the Fed might step away from the market a bit. They achieved what they intended. Reopened the markets. They also may want to rein in the equity markets especially in light of the broader economy.  

I agree. I’m up nicely from the February highs overall so not complaining, just want to avoid a big hit if I can. I wonder if with the reopening we aren’t going to see that second stimulus.

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1 minute ago, stbugs said:

I agree. I’m up nicely from the February highs overall so not complaining, just want to avoid a big hit if I can. I wonder if with the reopening we aren’t going to see that second stimulus.

Me too. I'll say this. Helene Meisler is not wavering from her retest prediction. Says months away. not days, not weeks but months. i'll stick with mancini's calls and her info.

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1 hour ago, sporthenry said:

I mean personally, I think these moves in sports betting stocks are stupid. I'm long a bit of DKNG in anticipation of the sports reopenings with no fans. I'll ride it but I'm getting ready to dump it. These things are more valuable than the casinos they rely on to get access to. These casinos didn't give away access for free. Lot of them have revenue sharing agreements. Market is likely to be over-saturated. 

Does this apply to DKNG?  Does it rely on casinos in new states like Colorado and Iowa?  Can't it operate as a virtual book?

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7 minutes ago, Shula-holic said:

Question for any of you guys who own a business or have direct investment in one.  How do you look at your personal asset allocation in regards to your capital invested in your company? 

It's a separate line item for me but I've always viewed it as being akin to being in equities when assessing my balances.  If you were to look at my equity exposure percentage it's very small, but if you add both it and my capital inside my business together it is more normal for someone my age I believe.  I'm doing some soul searching on allocations.  I'm 45 years old and am sitting around 58% equities/business; 11% real estate, 13% bonds, 19% cash/equivalents.

I’m not in real estate outside of my house, but I’ve got a lot of equity. If you include that, my net worth in round numbers is 20% real estate, 10% cash (taxable and tax deferred), 30% taxable equities and the rest in tax deferred equities/bonds. I don’t know the exact bond split but it’s not huge bond wise, mainly through those age based mutual funds via 401ks.

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Got a email from princes cruises - $240 for two people in a inside cabin over 4 nights out of Ft Lauderdale to the private beach island and back in early november.

Going to pass but I actually spent the 5 mIn looking into the details and spoke to Mrs ref about it.  3 weeks ago it would have been an auto delete.

 

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Have to say that was a very disappointing call.  NP signaled to the market that he had something material to announce but there was nothing so I guess that was too much to expect of him.  It's clear that he is over his skis.

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31 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

Yeah, I mean I'm probably one of the more bearish people here so I'm sure some of the chirping was directed at me. But I actually lightened up some shorts a few weeks ago given you had states reopening and most seem to think the summer will be relatively fine. I just moved more to cash. You have states reopening and while data doesn't seem great, it isn't lock it back down again. So while Q2 numbers will be abysmal, companies will just say July numbers were flat or only down x% and give the market hope. Heck, July may even be up since you will have pent up demand and consumers will actually have money for now. 

By my estimate, the Russell 3000, which accounts for ~98% of US market cap, is now only down ~$4T from it's peak and $2.7T from the beginning of the year. At the bottom, the market was down over $11.5T. I mean what are the bull arguments from here? Yes, record Fed intervention and stimulus. The stimulus likely did a good job of offsetting losses until now but what about going forward? I suppose you can bet on another round of stimulus but that is only because they see the depth of what is happening. It won't be free and they won't do it if we get a V-shaped recovery. The only other argument that Siegel made today is that this is essentially diverting wealth from outside the stock market to companies inside it. I.e. your local diner closes so we'll all be forced to eat at Outback. I don't have a great read on that but that seems like a fine line to thread. We're going to wreck the economy enough to put all the small businesses out of business but not so much to have us fall into a long recession. I also think with the economy being 2/3 consumer driven spending, we're in for more hurt than a more manufacturing focused economy. 

If I wanted to get cute, I'd say you could probably stay long through the reopening into the summer and ride 2Q earnings. Depending on how the market reacts until then, guidance for Q3 earnings is likely to be positive. So then sell before we get into the fall when the lack  of jobs and the potential for a 2nd wave really picks back up. However, I'm not trying to get too cute. I have a feeling the smart money may pull the rug sooner than later in anticipation of all that. I also think the Fed might step away from the market a bit. They achieved what they intended. Reopened the markets. They also may want to rein in the equity markets especially in light of the broader economy.  

The optimism about opening up is very delusional to me. Some sensible Americans and companies are adapting to this new coronavirus world others are not.  Virus is still there. Half of the states the virus is not contained. Once precautions are ignored and people become more complacent sure to spread dramatically again and business will suffer.

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