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Stock Thread (24 Viewers)

beef said:
Agreed, it does seem silly.  950 P/E is f'n insane. 

But then I'm reminded of the new investor that likes "cheap" stocks...   
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That stock is my biggest candidate for a massive drop wiping out a lot of peoples paper fortunes in it. Anyone who bought that stock in the high 20’s (yes in 2011 it was trading around 25 and change and I bought it.....and sold it in the 300’s thinking I made an amazing trade and I never got back in) and is still holding are out of their minds not selling here if they had held this long.

For an old school guy like me who does not see the earnings growth needed to justify this multiple and does not buy into the entire cult like hype that they are going to be the only game in town with EV.....this price is truly insane. I can admit it. I simply don’t get it. Nor do I want to. It feels like the Hindenburg. And at some point it is going to burn to ground when true fundamental reality hits the stock if it does not do whatever the hell people who keep piling into it expect it to do. 

Somebody tell me.....why should I buy this stock at this price. What is going to make Tesla produce revenue like Apple. Or even Walmart for that matter. Please educate me on this one. 

And I get it. They are a disrupter. And they are the first. But I do not see the entire country all driving around in Tesla’s and I do not envision everyone using them for their technology. Other car makers will have their own EV models and options. Maybe I am wrong. But I would really love to know what Tesla stock holders are expecting here. Again if you even bought in the low 200’s you should be taking all those profits and not look back. fantastic trade. I can’t see it being sustained based on pure fundamentals. 

 
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McBokonon said:
It should be but it’s not. It’s anecdotal but you can see people posting in investment communities everywhere they won’t buy Tesla, etc. because of the price even though fractional shares exist. They want whole shares. That’s one of the reasons they end up in EV alternatives with no products.
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The average volume is 13M. Walmart has about the same market cap and a share price a bit over $100. Daily volume of Tesla is 50% more even at a share price almost 15x Walmart’s. It’s silly. Anyone who won’t by a fractional share or won’t buy because they can’t afford 1 or more shares isn’t moving the share price. The share price of Tesla is driving people into EV alternatives, not because they can’t afford Tesla, but because they are hoping that $30 stock becomes a $1800 stock.

 
For those that trade on Fidelity, fractional shares are now available on the website. AFAIK previously it was only available on the Fidelity app.

 
Todem said:
That stock is my biggest candidate for a massive drop wiping out a lot of peoples paper fortunes in it. Anyone who bought that stock in the high 20’s (yes in 2011 it was trading around 25 and change and I bought it.....and sold it in the 300’s thinking I made an amazing trade and I never got back in) and is still holding are out of their minds not selling here if they had held this long.

For an old school guy like me who does not see the earnings growth needed to justify this multiple and does not buy into the entire cult like hype that they are going to be the only game in town with EV.....this price is truly insane. I can admit it. I simply don’t get it. Nor do I want to. It feels like the Hindenburg. And at some point it is going to burn to ground when true fundamental reality hits the stock if it does not do whatever the hell people who keep piling into it expect it to do. 

Somebody tell me.....why should I buy this stock at this price. What is going to make Tesla produce revenue like Apple. Or even Walmart for that matter. Please educate me on this one. 

And I get it. They are a disrupter. And they are the first. But I do not see the entire country all driving around in Tesla’s and I do not envision everyone using them for their technology. Other car makers will have their own EV models and options. Maybe I am wrong. But I would really love to know what Tesla stock holders are expecting here. Again if you even bought in the low 200’s you should be taking all those profits and not look back. fantastic trade. I can’t see it being sustained based on pure fundamentals. 
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I've been selling along the way, will sell more tomorrow then hold until it kind the S&P 500. Then probably reduce my holdings again.

 
JoeSteeler said:
For those that trade on Fidelity, fractional shares are now available on the website. AFAIK previously it was only available on the Fidelity app.
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I don't get it - why would fractional shares have only been available on the app? (I've heard this before but don't understand why)

 
stbugs said:
The average volume is 13M. Walmart has about the same market cap and a share price a bit over $100. Daily volume of Tesla is 50% more even at a share price almost 15x Walmart’s. It’s silly. Anyone who won’t by a fractional share or won’t buy because they can’t afford 1 or more shares isn’t moving the share price. The share price of Tesla is driving people into EV alternatives, not because they can’t afford Tesla, but because they are hoping that $30 stock becomes a $1800 stock.
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I said one of the reasons. A hope for a HR is another, like you said. Just because we think it’s stupid doesn’t mean there’s plenty of others who don’t.

 
Back on the dividend discussion, I've been trading dividends in one of my old IRA's just to get a feel for how the market moves with them and my anecdotal findings are as follows.  This is all for stocks with dividends over 5%.

The price in the ones I've traded tends to rise in the week or so up to the ex-dividend date and/or the dividend announcement.  If you're buying the day before ex-div, in a lot of cases it's already too late. 

My basic idea was buy before the ex-div, then hold until the price bounces back to where it was when I bought after SP drops the dividend percentage.  However I've found that generally there has been a bit of a sell-off on/after the ex-div date after all the people that bought lower cash out.

DHT has already run-up quite a bit  Based on my anecdotal experiences with that I expect it to fade off pretty hard after the ex-div date, though that may be affected by the asterisk below. 

To some extent so has FRO has already run up recently as well as I think people are anticipating a good dividend announcement after seeing DHT run-up.  I'm not sure if it's too late to get into that one or not.  If they announce a good dividend it could run-up like DHT but I think it's also a very real possibility that is already priced in with its recent run-up and it could be a sell the news type of situation.

So far in my limited time goofing off with trading dividends in my IRA I have lost money.  Not trading large amounts as I'm just trying to get a feel for it here, but so far what I've learned is you definitely have to be early on buying well before the ex-div date typically, although that leaves you susceptible to market movements in the meantime.

All in all, there's very little easy money in the stock market and so far this definitely hasn't been an exception to that.

***I thought I read somewhere that if the dividend is over 25% you have to hold the stock through the payout date and not just until ex-div date like you typically would.  This is relevant to me as I have a good chunk of DHT but I can't find a clear answer on this.  I'll probably just hold to be safe as I've been holding this one a while anyways but it is very relevant for @BassNBrew @beef @matuski who had mentioned selling on ex-div date with that stock.

 
McBokonon said:
I said one of the reasons. A hope for a HR is another, like you said. Just because we think it’s stupid doesn’t mean there’s plenty of others who don’t.
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I get the anecdotes but my silly comment was about the 40-45% run up due to the split. Splits are usually only done when a stock is growing and doing well so to a degree the whole split = share price run up is kind of redundant. I don’t think the run up post split is due to cheaper shares and wider ownership. I think it’s just a continuation of a company doing well. What we see here is out of whack.

 
Sand said:
Already had some of the first two (good grief I should have bought a crapload of SE), but not QCLN.  So I bought some to be a sheeple.  
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Tesla has been a prime driver of QCLN, but it's a fairly small portion overall. 

 
Agreed that buying because of a “cheaper” price after a split is silly. But as an options trader, I prefer stock prices in the hundreds not thousands. You can’t transact less than one options contract (100 shares) which for AMZN right now is very expensive.

 
Maybe a dumb question, and one that is somewhat academic. What happens to the S&P 500 when it adds Tesla? Does the bench mark immediately (and artificially) jump to a new high?  (Just based on the add, ignore whatever else has happened that day)

 
Todem said:
That stock is my biggest candidate for a massive drop wiping out a lot of peoples paper fortunes in it. Anyone who bought that stock in the high 20’s (yes in 2011 it was trading around 25 and change and I bought it.....and sold it in the 300’s thinking I made an amazing trade and I never got back in) and is still holding are out of their minds not selling here if they had held this long.

For an old school guy like me who does not see the earnings growth needed to justify this multiple and does not buy into the entire cult like hype that they are going to be the only game in town with EV.....this price is truly insane. I can admit it. I simply don’t get it. Nor do I want to. It feels like the Hindenburg. And at some point it is going to burn to ground when true fundamental reality hits the stock if it does not do whatever the hell people who keep piling into it expect it to do. 

Somebody tell me.....why should I buy this stock at this price. What is going to make Tesla produce revenue like Apple. Or even Walmart for that matter. Please educate me on this one. 

And I get it. They are a disrupter. And they are the first. But I do not see the entire country all driving around in Tesla’s and I do not envision everyone using them for their technology. Other car makers will have their own EV models and options. Maybe I am wrong. But I would really love to know what Tesla stock holders are expecting here. Again if you even bought in the low 200’s you should be taking all those profits and not look back. fantastic trade. I can’t see it being sustained based on pure fundamentals. 
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I haven't "gotten" the stock since the 200's, but I suspect the idea is a halo effect from the battery tech. The Powerwall system is slick as ####, and prices are coming down. I don't even own a Tesla car and I'm seriously thinking of getting a Tesla solar + powerwall system installed as a way to reduce my electric costs, reduce my dependence of the grid while also getting a whole house generator solution. The grid sucks in my area, and weather disruptions are becoming more common. I now run my business from my home and can't afford to not have a back-up system in place. The Powerwall batteries last way longer than a Generac or Kohler whole house system. I suppose in theory, once I get a Powerwall system installed getting a new Tesla might make sense as my next car. I still don't see the ROI on an EV for me personally, but I can see it with the Powerwall for my home. These aren't $1k or $2k purchases like Apple, these are $40k-$50K purchases that might lead to another $50-70k purchase. All this to say I still don't get the stock price now, but can see how disruptive the tech is and can be.

 
stbugs said:
I get the anecdotes but my silly comment was about the 40-45% run up due to the split. Splits are usually only done when a stock is growing and doing well so to a degree the whole split = share price run up is kind of redundant. I don’t think the run up post split is due to cheaper shares and wider ownership. I think it’s just a continuation of a company doing well. What we see here is out of whack.
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Honestly I think the TSLA run-up to the split makes a lot more sense than the AAPL run-up.

The split is meant to attract retail investors and TSLA is a much more retail driven stock than AAPL, so it makes sense that retail accessbility (even if they technically already have that accessibility with fractional shares, maybe we should call it "retail mental accessibility") would be a much larger driver there.

Every institution in the world owns plenty of AAPL and the float on that thing is such a bloated pig people are correct in saying retail can't impact that stock.

But TSLA's float is fairly minimal compared to these other huge cap stocks and the notion that it can't be driven by retail makes zero sense.  If TSLA stock can't be affected by retail then who the heck is driving up TSLA's share price so much?  Every analyst or investor I've ever seen talk about TSLA has said the same thing as Todem, that it's insanely overvalued and they would never own it and anyone that owns it should be taking profits on it.  And serious investors sure as hell don't want to own a stock where the CEO could at any moment get high and go on social media and intentionally tank the price of his own stock.  Add to all of that the notion that the float on TSLA is 1/30th (!!) the size of AAPL and that thing can definitely be moved by retail.

I got lucky that I bought a good chunk of TSLA on the last dip maybe a week before the split announcement.  But then again the whole reason I bought it on the dip was that they tend to come up with some catalyst every month or so to spark retail interest and drive the price up substantially, which is exactly what happened.  My plan when I bought was to hold to 2000 and I am tempted to sell here at 1900 but also wondering if there is still more in the tank after the split.

My best guess for the split is that it will be a sell the news type situation and the price will dip after the split as the rush to buy isn't as huge as imagined, and as the market movers that bought in just anticipating taking advantage of retail sentiment take their profits.  Then after the dip the retail push will come in much slower on the new fakely "cheap" price and the price will start slowly grinding upwards again and a year from now we'll be a fair bit higher than we are right now.

That's what I anticipate happening.  I don't know if I have enough conviction to trade it that way though, especially with so much paper profit already on the table.

 
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Don Hutson said:
Seems like a good time to sell 100%.  DKNG is walking through a Covid minefield.  They aren't going to get to the other side unscathed.
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The only mine that matters for DKNG is the NFL.  That's the majority of their revenue and every other mine that it's stepped on, even the ones that sound like they're huge, gets absorbed by it within a day.  In between each mine it just keeps grinding upwards and any state announcing they are considering legalizing online sports gambling (which we all expect to be coming) will send it soaring.

 
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-OZ- said:
Maybe a dumb question, and one that is somewhat academic. What happens to the S&P 500 when it adds Tesla? Does the bench mark immediately (and artificially) jump to a new high?  (Just based on the add, ignore whatever else has happened that day)
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I was wondering the same thing.  How does the intro of a new company effect things?

 
ghostguy123 said:
I was wondering the same thing.  How does the intro of a new company effect things?
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Right, plus it bears repeating - they're not adding the 500th company by net worth, they're adding the current 20th. Granted, it's only 15% of Apple, but it's  100x the 500th company. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Honestly I think the TSLA run-up to the split makes a lot more sense than the AAPL run-up.
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I’m talking about the run after. The run up before was for the S&P inclusion and as that faded, there’s been another 40%+ pop due to the split. The stock has doubled since the end of June mainly due to two things that technically have no real impact on the share price. There was the Q2 earnings but that was almost identical to Q1 (both worse than Q3 and Q4) just sold a bit more tax credits to have positive earnings.

That’s a lot of fluff for things that don’t increase revenue or earnings. I do agree on Apple as well. The almost $400 share price isn’t keeping it from being the most widely held stock already. How is the split going to make it more owned? It’s like “split” means something new now that the market is where people gamble instead of sports.

 
-OZ- said:
Are we still in that? 

I am, but only a few thousand.
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I am and wish I wasn’t. Sold 1/3 at $6.50 (basically the shares I bought just under $3 through $6. What I have left is a little less than what I started with at $1. Still up but wasted some nice paper gains.

 
Caesar said:
glad I am out.  I can only handle so much volatility in my portfolio.  CYDY is giving me all I can take, and then some.
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Volatility is your friend if you sell at the peaks and buy at the dips.  To ride the rollercoaster up and down repeatedly would be stressful.

 
Don Hutson said:
Volatility is your friend if you sell at the peaks and buy at the dips.  To ride the rollercoaster up and down repeatedly would be stressful.
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You are right.  I have been doing a little, but mostly unsuccessful.  Sold the RLFTF at .42 after getting impatient.  Had I waited one or two days, I double my profit.  I can't complain about putting the money in the account, but it would have been better had I held a little.  

I'm still learning, though, so that's why I follow this thread pretty hard because there is a lot of good info in here.  I like when people post their entry and exit points.

 
Adjusting my long term holdings just a bit today.

Selling off 10% of my Tesla, lowering my Visa holdings, and taking some other gains including SE (not much, like 5%) and adding Toyota. Will probably buy Toyota in other accounts. Might also add Nissan with their low PE and high dividends. There's a risk with that area of consumer spending with the economy, but both are very good companies with value to be had.

 
Caesar said:
glad I am out.  I can only handle so much volatility in my portfolio.  CYDY is giving me all I can take, and then some.
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Caesar said:
You are right.  I have been doing a little, but mostly unsuccessful.  Sold the RLFTF at .42 after getting impatient.  Had I waited one or two days, I double my profit.  I can't complain about putting the money in the account, but it would have been better had I held a little.  

I'm still learning, though, so that's why I follow this thread pretty hard because there is a lot of good info in here.  I like when people post their entry and exit points.
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Maybe it's all mental due to my entry point and recency bias, but I'd rather have RLFTF than CYDY in my accounts.

 
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-OZ- said:
It gives me a little pause when the stock was flat for basically 15 months, since inception, then rises 40% in 2 weeks. Good for those who got in before late July. 

Then when reading the company profile "diamond peak holdings does not have significant operations. It intends to effect a merger..." 🤔
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That’s the description for every SPAC

 
Polish Hammer said:
Last night during the convention the Ohio delegate was in front of Lordstown Motors. That's tied to DPHC, which has been discussed here. I'm putting a chunk into that company.
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Noticed that too.  I got in it just before the rise by a mention here.  Then got out and took the quick buck and kind of stopped following it.  I may throw some back at DPHC.

 
-OZ- said:
It gives me a little pause when the stock was flat for basically 15 months, since inception, then rises 40% in 2 weeks. Good for those who got in before late July. 

Then when reading the company profile "diamond peak holdings does not have significant operations. It intends to effect a merger..." 🤔
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Yeah, I don’t think you get the stock. It was flat because it was a SPAC. That’s just a bunch of money looking for a company to go public. When the merger was announced that’s when the stock popped. That’s how they work. It’s possible for an SPAC to find nothing and close and give back the money. 

 
beef said:
Noticed that too.  I got in it just before the rise by a mention here.  Then got out and took the quick buck and kind of stopped following it.  I may throw some back at DPHC.
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I may as well. I don’t have an EV holdings. Some energy/solar but no EV. Might be worth a shot. Seems in bed with GM a bit so not just a hope and a prayer.

 
McBokonon said:
Was looking for a microcap play, since I like to have one, the other day and my screen (which looks for large YOY revenue gains among other things) pulled up $OESX - Orion Energy Systems. Got added to the Russell in June, chart looks solid, got a government contract right before that. They look like they could be hitting their groove. They install energy-saving lighting systems and integrate IoT with it blah blah.

Earnings in the morning. I’m taking a small swing here with a small buy in the after hours in case COVID wrecked them more than they anticipated. But, their entire supply chain is domestic which they make clear on their website. 
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Hit 5.30 today (was around 4.15 when I posted this.) A 25+% jump in a few weeks was way more than I expected. I was just planning to wait on this for awhile and adding on occasion, figuring I’d watch it move gradually until we learn their big customers liked what they did and gave them more jobs, which could snowball.

 
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