Sure, every team has dropped passes. According to Fox Sports, NE dropped 40 passes this year. They have the Ravens dropping 14. My overall point was that Brady's passing numbers would have looked better without all the dropped passes and folks would not have been quite as eager to declare that the wheels were falling off of Brady in front of our own eyes. If Brady had 20 more completions out of those 40 drops (and 1 more TD pass), his QB rating would have been 92.7 . . . and ranked 14th in that category. That would have been a higher passer rating than he had in 7 other seasons.Yes - being in the "middle of the pack" is a decline for Brady. I wouldn't put him in the bottom 5 yet, but if he keeps playing that could happen. Watching him physically you can see he's not the same. He was never mobile but now can barely bend over and his arm is much weaker and less accurate - and every QB has his WRs drop passes.
...and once again we go back to maybe it's greater than his apologists are willing to admit. I know passer rating may be a better metric than just subjective observation but I'm not sure it captures the full picture either.Sure, every team has dropped passes. According to Fox Sports, NE dropped 40 passes this year. They have the Ravens dropping 14. My overall point was that Brady's passing numbers would have looked better without all the dropped passes and folks would not have been quite as eager to declare that the wheels were falling off of Brady in front of our own eyes. If Brady had 20 more completions out of those 40 drops (and 1 more TD pass), his QB rating would have been 92.7 . . . and ranked 14th in that category. That would have been a higher passer rating than he had in 7 other seasons.
IMO, that fits with the narrative that Brady is middle of the pack these days. With better health to his surrounding players and more practice time with his receivers, I would expect Brady to still be in that range (should he return to NE). Yes he is declining, but the rate of decline may not be as great as some folks are making it.
IF IF IF …….the wall smacked him in the face this year, he's done, father time is undefeatedSure, every team has dropped passes. According to Fox Sports, NE dropped 40 passes this year. They have the Ravens dropping 14. My overall point was that Brady's passing numbers would have looked better without all the dropped passes and folks would not have been quite as eager to declare that the wheels were falling off of Brady in front of our own eyes. If Brady had 20 more completions out of those 40 drops (and 1 more TD pass), his QB rating would have been 92.7 . . . and ranked 14th in that category. That would have been a higher passer rating than he had in 7 other seasons.
IMO, that fits with the narrative that Brady is middle of the pack these days. With better health to his surrounding players and more practice time with his receivers, I would expect Brady to still be in that range (should he return to NE). Yes he is declining, but the rate of decline may not be as great as some folks are making it.
IF IF IF …….the wall smacked him in the face this year, he's done, father time is undefeated
I can't remember him connecting on a deep ball this year. He kept trying when it was there but it never worked. I'm not going to pretend to know more about football than Brady but when the ball gets there and there's two defenders all over the receiver, one of these things happened. Maybe the quarterback misread the coverage. Probably not. It happened way too often. Maybe the receiver was too slow to get a step. Possible, especially when he was taking shots towards Edelman or lacosse. But the other two are that the quarterback doesn't have the arm strength to throw it as far as he wants, or the ball is too slow getting there. And honestly that's way way more likely.Full disclosure, there is (and never will be) a bigger fan of Brady than I.
Have his skilled diminished somewhat? Sure, but i watched every game this yr and i still see him make all the throws and throw the ball 60-70yds.
maybe the geniuses should change the offense? SO its easier for Sanu/Dorsett?But Edelman's not getting younger, bradys not either, and it takes a long time to learn how to play receiver for the Patriots. I want to be optimistic but maybe it's too much to ask.
Never meant to imply he is hitting on deep balls, only that he can still throw it 60+ yds so the arm strength is still there to see for anyone who actually watches him play. As you said throwing deep was never a big part of his game (I agree) sans moss. You are talking as if he is going to play in NE next yr and i hope u r right but for the first time I am pretty pessimistic about that, i think it is more likely than not he leaves. Very sad, i doubt the grass will be any greener than where he currently is and it likely won't end well for him but i do honestly believe he can still play.I can't remember him connecting on a deep ball this year. He kept trying when it was there but it never worked. I'm not going to pretend to know more about football than Brady but when the ball gets there and there's two defenders all over the receiver, one of these things happened. Maybe the quarterback misread the coverage. Probably not. It happened way too often. Maybe the receiver was too slow to get a step. Possible, especially when he was taking shots towards Edelman or lacosse. But the other two are that the quarterback doesn't have the arm strength to throw it as far as he wants, or the ball is too slow getting there. And honestly that's way way more likely.
Imo part of the issue is that he can't throw deep. But that was true when he was young, too. He's never been a mad bomber. It's not like the defenses are scared of him throwing deep. There's no reason to chuck it in the name of keeping defenses honest if it never works. Just scrap that from the play book.
The other side though is that the receivers dropped more passes this year than at any time in his career. Not just official drops, but passes that a good pass catcher should catch. It's painfully obvious that the receivers were worse than he's used to and it made the offense suffer. This was a lot like the kenbrell thompkins year or the reche Caldwell year.
That said - do i think his numbers can improve next year? Absolutely. But it's going to depend on the receivers. It would be fun to get aj green, and maybe he could catch those deep throws or actually keep defenses honest. At least as long as he's healthy. If harry improves at catching the ball, that would be a big improvement. He was so bad at the end.
But Edelman's not getting younger, bradys not either, and it takes a long time to learn how to play receiver for the Patriots. I want to be optimistic but maybe it's too much to ask.
They did. In the Baltimore game they threw like 15 straight curls to sanu and it worked really well for a while. But he struggled big time once they took those away, and as a mid season trade they didn't have a chance to learn a complete new offense together. Dorsett didn't get a ton of targets because his best routes aren't a great fit for Brady's diminishing skillset. He's much better as a role player than a primary option. Teams started to cover white with a defensive back because they didn't need their best d back on guys like sanu, and they didn't need to bracket Edelman every play because he was hurt. The offense was a mess by the end specifically because they had to adjust so much mid season.maybe the geniuses should change the offense? SO its easier for Sanu/Dorsett?
It can't really be about money though, as we all know how filthy rich he is. Comes down to respect, feeling like he sacrificed for the team and wasn't given enough back recently. Maybe money is a way to show that respect but I highly doubt he gives a crap about the money.They did. In the Baltimore game they threw like 15 straight curls to sanu and it worked really well for a while. But he struggled big time once they took those away, and as a mid season trade they didn't have a chance to learn a complete new offense together. Dorsett didn't get a ton of targets because his best routes aren't a great fit for Brady's diminishing skillset. He's much better as a role player than a primary option. Teams started to cover white with a defensive back because they didn't need their best d back on guys like sanu, and they didn't need to bracket Edelman every play because he was hurt. The offense was a mess by the end specifically because they had to adjust so much mid season.
I think McDaniels also had to deal with Brady repeatedly taking deep shots on early downs, leaving himself in third and manageable, but unable to convert because the ball clanged off the receiver's hands again and again.
I don't think you're actually trying to have a substantive conversation here, using the word geniuses sarcastically, but those are my honest thoughts. I think the demise of Brady is a bit overstated but things have definitely changed and that needs to be taken into account during the off season.
And @NE_REVIVAL i do think he comes back, I do want him back, and i expect that all sides want that too but are posturing because money.
Come on, man. No, this is not what happened.I almost wonder if Belichick set Tom Terrific up to fail just so he could push him out
True. Also true that the rat of decline with age may not be a straight line, but may be curvilinear. Time will tell. It will be an interesting off season.Sure, every team has dropped passes. According to Fox Sports, NE dropped 40 passes this year. They have the Ravens dropping 14. My overall point was that Brady's passing numbers would have looked better without all the dropped passes and folks would not have been quite as eager to declare that the wheels were falling off of Brady in front of our own eyes. If Brady had 20 more completions out of those 40 drops (and 1 more TD pass), his QB rating would have been 92.7 . . . and ranked 14th in that category. That would have been a higher passer rating than he had in 7 other seasons.
IMO, that fits with the narrative that Brady is middle of the pack these days. With better health to his surrounding players and more practice time with his receivers, I would expect Brady to still be in that range (should he return to NE). Yes he is declining, but the rate of decline may not be as great as some folks are making it.
I don't follow the logic here. If money isn't his priority, what more exactly would the team have done to reward him and "show that respect"?It can't really be about money though, as we all know how filthy rich he is. Comes down to respect, feeling like he sacrificed for the team and wasn't given enough back recently. Maybe money is a way to show that respect but I highly doubt he gives a crap about the money.
Seems to me Brady is adored by the owner and Bill Belichicks standard operating procedure has been to always move players a year or two early rather than too late.Come on, man. No, this is not what happened.
I nominate "Rat of Decline" as our new moniker for Tom Brady.True. Also true that the rat of decline with age may not be a straight line, but may be curvilinear. Time will tell. It will be an interesting off season.
It's rare for a team to sign or trade for a receiver midseason. Belichick signed arguably the best receiver in the league and traded a second round pick for another receiver. I can't think of a team doing more midseason to procure weapons for their quarterback in the history of the NFL.I almost wonder if Belichick set Tom Terrific up to fail just so he could push him out. By not giving Brady much help (After AB and Gordon were dumped,)
You can't just take the first "e" out of a well known phrase and use it to describe someone.I nominate "Rat of Decline" as our new moniker for Tom Brady.
There have been rumored grumblings over the years, Brady has said to have been called out, even berated, in front of the team during film review sessions for making mistakes that really didn't impact games. He also has expressed that he feels BB has not supported him enough in the media and that BB goes out of his way not to recognize him in front of the team for his accomplishments (game balls, internal player of the week, earning days off for working hard in practice, etc.).I don't follow the logic here. If money isn't his priority, what more exactly would the team have done to reward him and "show that respect"?
Brady has played for the Patriots for 19 seasons, missing the one season due to injury. In the other 18 seasons, the organization put championship-caliber teams around him for at least 14 of them (counting all the seasons reaching at least AFCCG plus the 14-2 season losing in the divisional round). Targets were lacking in 2019, but that hasn't typically been the case, and he has also typically had solid or better pass blocking. The team drafted successor QBs and moved on from them multiple times (e.g., Brissett, Garoppolo) to stick with Brady. He has always had elite coaching and played for one of the best owners in the NFL.
Seriously, what has been lacking? Seems like it has been the perfect marriage, and IMO Brady would be extremely foolish to go elsewhere. I don't think he is an extremely foolish guy, which is why I have expected him to be back with the Patriots all along.
Dammit. Now I have to leave it uncorrected. Too good to not do so.I nominate "Rat of Decline" as our new moniker for Tom Brady.
This paints a pretty poor picture of Brady, to be honest. Is he really this insecure? I almost feel bad for him (and I'm not saying that sarcastically).There have been rumored grumblings over the years, Brady has said to have been called out, even berated, in front of the team during film review sessions for making mistakes that really didn't impact games. He also has expressed that he feels BB has not supported him enough in the media and that BB goes out of his way not to recognize him in front of the team for his accomplishments (game balls, internal player of the week, earning days off for working hard in practice, etc.).
I have heard a lot of discussion about this type of stuff over the years. Some feel it was BB motivating other players on the team. Others think it may have gone over the line.This paints a pretty poor picture of Brady, to be honest. Is he really this insecure? I almost feel bad for him (and I'm not saying that sarcastically).
My armchair analysis, which is both less thorough and less detailed than yours, is 60 retire / 30 return to Pats / 10 play elsewhere.Ultimately, I think there would be way too much change in the Brady household to pick up and switch teams for what would likely be a relatively short time frame. The issue will be whether TB12 will want to play for the amount that NE will want to offer him.
From the people I watch / read / follow, Brady has made it clear he is not retiring and he will be playing football next year. In fact, retiring may be so off the table now that I might not even list that as an option. The only way I think retiring makes it back as a consideration is if NE doesn't really want him back and / or they offer him like a $10 million, one year deal and no other team in the league wants him for a fair market deal. If his entire market is NE for $10 million or nothing, maybe he would have second thoughts about playing. But I don't see that happening, as there will be a team that would be willing to overpay him to get fannies in the seats and interest in their organization.My armchair analysis, which is both less thorough and less detailed than yours, is 60 retire / 30 return to Pats / 10 play elsewhere.
Admittedly, Brady and the NE offense didn’t look great last year. I posed this question in other threads, but pick any other QB (probably not Lamar as he is not similar to Brady) and realistically how well would that guy have done and what would his stat line have been? Assume 16 games played from the mystery QB and that he was there since March.Last season, he was a below average QB.
Based on the context of my post to which you responded, are you suggesting through your response that Brady could go a number of other places and immediately be an above average QB since he would be playing with better offensive teammates? We can agree to disagree on that.Admittedly, Brady and the NE offense didn’t look great last year. I posed this question in other threads, but pick any other QB (probably not Lamar as he is not similar to Brady) and realistically how well would that guy have done and what would his stat line have been? Assume 16 games played from the mystery QB and that he was there since March.
But that player would get a banged up OL the first half of the season. Half a season of Gordon. Half a season of a healthy Edelman. Half a season of Sanu. One game of AB. No running game most of the season. No TE production. Watson playing on a torn Achilles.
How well would Mahomes have done? Wilson? Brees? Rodgers? Or anyone else? Would that QB have done leaps and bounds better in the same situation?
That isn’t remotely what I asked. I have already said that Brady is average and should not be considered a difference maker at this stage. My question inferred that given the state of the NE offense this year that having a different QB probably would not have changed the effectiveness of the offense.Based on the context of my post to which you responded, are you suggesting through your response that Brady could go a number of other places and immediately be an above average QB since he would be playing with better offensive teammates? We can agree to disagree on that.
Him and Brees will be out there in wheelchairs battling for the TD and yardage record. Advantage Brees.The Pat's had god awful weapons this year. Bottom 5?
Of course for a number of reasons Bradys best chance of success is to play in New England, but that doesnt mean he will if he knows he is going right back into that same situation.
I do think he either retires or plays in NE, but ya never know.
Rodgers is an interesting comparison to Brady this year.How well would Mahomes have done? Wilson? Brees? Rodgers? Or anyone else? Would that QB have done leaps and bounds better in the same situation?
You are citing Graham as a positive?Rodgers is an interesting comparison to Brady this year.
Stats are very similar. Rodgers was dealing with limited weapons for a good chunk of the year when D. Adams was out. Still, he had Graham, a strong running game with A. Jones/J. Williams, and then D. Adams once he recovered from his injury.
A. Rodgers: 353-569-4002-26-4-95.4
T. Brady: 373-613-4057-24-8-88
Really not a significant difference in performance.
So Rodgers to me had a better supporting cast and had slightly better results.
Don't hear many saying Rodgers is done.
Have a feeling he would have struggled quite a bit in NE.
Graham moves slightly better than a statue now.You are citing Graham as a positive?
Regardless, no one is saying Rodgers is done because he just turned 36 in December. Brady is 42. The difference between their future outlooks is as simple as that.
Graham moves slightly better than Ben Watson, who says he played this year with a torn Achilles.Graham moves slightly better than a statue now.
I think the bolded font is spot-on. The rest of the comment I'm not in agreement with, but these are two very important points I think people are missing. He developed a great arm. And who was he going to throw the ball deep to this year, even on deep outs. His receivers couldn't get separation.A lot of overreaction here, imo.
Also, I think some of you forget how strong Brady’s arm is/was. He didn’t come into the league with a cannon but he developed his arm into one.
Deep passes this year too whom????? Edelman? Who is this deep threat?
Im certainly not a Brady guy (give me Montana over everyone,) but I almost wonder if Belichick set Tom Terrific up to fail just so he could push him out. By not giving Brady much help (After AB and Gordon were dumped,) he was given the chance to put the team on his shoulders all by himself and Brady simply can’t do that anymore. He did try but anyone who’s watched the Patriots even a little bit can see his receivers get no separation.
I wouldnt put a fork in him just yet. You throw him on a team with some weapons and he will contend for a tittle.
This isn't exactly true as stated.I think the bolded font is spot-on. The rest of the comment I'm not in agreement with, but these are two very important points I think people are missing. He developed a great arm. And who was he going to throw the ball deep to this year, even on deep outs. His receivers couldn't get separation.
Thanks for posting. I know that's per PFF, but where did you pull those stats? I think I have a fantasy scrip there, but am not checking the articles daily or even the next gen stats that I think are only available for Elite subscribers.This isn't exactly true as stated.
Per PFF, among all QBs in 2019 who attempted at least 20 deep passes, Brady ranked #26 in percentage of deep passes (10.1%) and #18 in deep pass accuracy. I'm sure some of the reason for both numbers being lower than in past seasons is the surrounding players on offense, but I'm equally sure that some of the reason is dropoff in Brady's play.
- Dorsett is a deep threat who was #25 in average separation. He had 17 deep targets.
- Edelman is known as a great route runner, and he was #29 in average separation. He had 14 deep targets.
- Gordon wasn't there long, but he was #5 in average separation. He had 5 deep targets while in NE.
I linked the site with the separation data. The deep pass data is from PFF premium stats.Thanks for posting. I know that's per PFF, but where did you pull those stats? I think I have a fantasy scrip there, but am not checking the articles daily or even the next gen stats that I think are only available for Elite subscribers.
I also agree with your conclusion. I think he's been affected by his guys, but there's also been a visible physical decline over the past three years, actually, that nobody really saw or was hidden through game plans, etc.
I saw the links and clicked. One more click wound up in player shares commercials, though that's no fault of yours, I just didn't know where to look on the web page at first. The deep pass stuff is what I was looking for.I linked the site with the separation data. The deep pass data is from PFF premium stats.
Without watching a 6 minute video, what's the breakdown?