Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
ComfortablyNumb

Official Tom Brady - bust alert (in 2013)

Recommended Posts

Me, I have always sort of rooted for "old warhorses".  I have enjoyed Brady on my fantasy teams and had him before he was "Brady".  I have resented the Patriots over the course of his career for their luck and cheating but have not let this diminish my view of his skills.  I will watch with interest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

Here's the thing. What does "IN DECLINE" actually translate to? We all know he isn't ever seeing a season like 2007 again (117.2 passer rating). His passer rating last year fell to 88.0. The Patriots won the SB in 2003 when his passer rating was 85.9 and in 2001 when it was 86.5. I already posted that IMO, without all the drops by his receivers this year, he would have ended the season in the low 90's in passer rating. He ranked 12th in passer rating in 2018 and 18th in 2019. I certainly don't expect Brady to go back to being in the Top 5, but he should be able to hover around the #15 QB next year (playing on NE). He is what he is . . . the definition of middle of the road at this point. No team will be winning the SB because of Tom Brady. Any team he plays for needs a defense and a running game (with Brady occasionally making plays and not turning the ball over).

So sure, if that makes him "IN DECLINE," I won't argue. Is that level of performance good enough for a team to win? Who knows . . . but the Titans are still playing and Tannehill has barely completed 50% of his passes and has a total of 160 passing yards in 2 wins in the playoffs. And before people jump all over me, I am aware NE doesn't have a RB anywhere near Henry. The point was that not every team needs to put up 400 yards passing to win. Maybe there are folks that think Brady is way worse and in the bottom five as far as starters go. I guess we'll find out.

Yes - being in the "middle of the pack" is a decline for Brady.  I wouldn't put him in the bottom 5 yet, but if he keeps playing eventually that could happen. Watching him physically you can see he's not the same. He was never mobile but now can barely bend over and his arm is much weaker and less accurate - and every QB has his WRs drop passes.

He's still capable of winning games and I expect he will next year wherever he plays.

Edited by Dr. Octopus

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

Here's the thing. What does "IN DECLINE" actually translate to? We all know he isn't ever seeing a season like 2007 again (117.2 passer rating). His passer rating last year fell to 88.0. The Patriots won the SB in 2003 when his passer rating was 85.9 and in 2001 when it was 86.5. I already posted that IMO, without all the drops by his receivers this year, he would have ended the season in the low 90's in passer rating. He ranked 12th in passer rating in 2018 and 18th in 2019. I certainly don't expect Brady to go back to being in the Top 5, but he should be able to hover around the #15 QB next year (playing on NE). He is what he is . . . the definition of middle of the road at this point. No team will be winning the SB because of Tom Brady. Any team he plays for needs a defense and a running game (with Brady occasionally making plays and not turning the ball over).

So sure, if that makes him "IN DECLINE," I won't argue. Is that level of performance good enough for a team to win? Who knows . . . but the Titans are still playing and Tannehill has barely completed 50% of his passes and has a total of 160 passing yards in 2 wins in the playoffs. And before people jump all over me, I am aware NE doesn't have a RB anywhere near Henry. The point was that not every team needs to put up 400 yards passing to win. Maybe there are folks that think Brady is way worse and in the bottom five as far as starters go. I guess we'll find out.

Give him a RB like Henry and Brady might never retire. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Yes - being in the "middle of the pack" is a decline for Brady.  I wouldn't put him in the bottom 5 yet, but if he keeps playing that could happen. Watching him physically you can see he's not the same. He was never mobile but now can barely bend over and his arm is much weaker and less accurate - and every QB has his WRs drop passes.

Sure, every team has dropped passes. According to Fox Sports, NE dropped 40 passes this year. They have the Ravens dropping 14. My overall point was that Brady's passing numbers would have looked better without all the dropped passes and folks would not have been quite as eager to declare that the wheels were falling off of Brady in front of our own eyes. If Brady had 20 more completions out of those 40 drops (and 1 more TD pass), his QB rating would have been 92.7 . . . and ranked 14th in that category. That would have been a higher passer rating than he had in 7 other seasons.

IMO, that fits with the narrative that Brady is middle of the pack these days. With better health to his surrounding players and more practice time with his receivers, I would expect Brady to still be in that range (should he return to NE). Yes he is declining, but the rate of decline may not be as great as some folks are making it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Sure, every team has dropped passes. According to Fox Sports, NE dropped 40 passes this year. They have the Ravens dropping 14. My overall point was that Brady's passing numbers would have looked better without all the dropped passes and folks would not have been quite as eager to declare that the wheels were falling off of Brady in front of our own eyes. If Brady had 20 more completions out of those 40 drops (and 1 more TD pass), his QB rating would have been 92.7 . . . and ranked 14th in that category. That would have been a higher passer rating than he had in 7 other seasons.

IMO, that fits with the narrative that Brady is middle of the pack these days. With better health to his surrounding players and more practice time with his receivers, I would expect Brady to still be in that range (should he return to NE). Yes he is declining, but the rate of decline may not be as great as some folks are making it.

...and once again we go back to maybe it's greater than his apologists are willing to admit. I know passer rating may be a better metric than just subjective observation but I'm not sure it captures the full picture either.

I mean he is 42, there's nothing wrong with declining at that age. He's already way ahead of the game as most 42 year olds would be completely washed up, and he's not there yet. He looks much better than a few younger potential Hall of Famers like Rivers and Eli (of course he was much better than them to begin with but you know what I mean).

Edited by Dr. Octopus

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Sure, every team has dropped passes. According to Fox Sports, NE dropped 40 passes this year. They have the Ravens dropping 14. My overall point was that Brady's passing numbers would have looked better without all the dropped passes and folks would not have been quite as eager to declare that the wheels were falling off of Brady in front of our own eyes. If Brady had 20 more completions out of those 40 drops (and 1 more TD pass), his QB rating would have been 92.7 . . . and ranked 14th in that category. That would have been a higher passer rating than he had in 7 other seasons.

IMO, that fits with the narrative that Brady is middle of the pack these days. With better health to his surrounding players and more practice time with his receivers, I would expect Brady to still be in that range (should he return to NE). Yes he is declining, but the rate of decline may not be as great as some folks are making it.

IF IF IF …….the wall smacked him in the face this year, he's done, father time is undefeated

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Full disclosure, there is (and never will be) a bigger fan of Brady than I.

Have his skilled diminished somewhat? Sure, but i watched every game this yr and i still see him make all the throws and throw the ball 60+yds. I know the OL was horrible and rec core was pretty sub standard. When they could run the ball he tended to look pretty damn good, when they couldn't he was tossing the ball away lest he get crushed.

This yr reminded me a lot of his 2006, troy brown and a bunch of nobodies (reche caldwell, doug gabriel, jabar gafney, chad jackson era) and he seemed to bounce back pretty good the next yr.  

Logic dictates he is 42 and the end is nigh I get that but unlike many who insist he hit a wall, I watched every game and there is little doubt in my mind he can still play at a pretty high level with decent protection and more talent around him. Reasonable minds may differ.......

Edited by NE_REVIVAL
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, NE_REVIVAL said:

Full disclosure, there is (and never will be) a bigger fan of Brady than I.

Have his skilled diminished somewhat? Sure, but i watched every game this yr and i still see him make all the throws and throw the ball 60-70yds.

I can't remember him connecting on a deep ball this year.  He kept trying when it was there but it never worked.  I'm not going to pretend to know more about football than Brady but when the ball gets there and there's two defenders all over the receiver, one of these things happened.  Maybe the quarterback misread the coverage.  Probably not. It happened way too often.  Maybe the receiver was too slow to get a step. Possible, especially when he was taking shots towards Edelman or lacosse. But the other two are that the quarterback doesn't have the arm strength to throw it as far as he wants, or the ball is too slow getting there. And honestly that's way way more likely. 

Imo part of the issue is that he can't throw deep. But that was true when he was young, too. He's never been a mad bomber. It's not like the defenses are scared of him throwing deep.  There's no reason to chuck it in the name of keeping defenses honest if it never works. Just scrap that from the play book.

The other side though is that the receivers dropped more passes this year than at any time in his career. Not just official drops, but passes that a good pass catcher should catch. It's painfully obvious that the receivers were worse than he's used to and it made the offense suffer. This was a lot like the kenbrell thompkins year or the reche Caldwell year. 

That said - do i think his numbers can improve next year? Absolutely.  But it's going to depend on the receivers. It would be fun to get aj green, and maybe he could catch those deep throws or actually keep defenses honest. At least as long as he's healthy.  If harry improves at catching the ball, that would be a big improvement. He was so bad at the end.

But Edelman's not getting younger, bradys not either, and it takes a long time to learn how to play receiver for the Patriots. I want to be optimistic but maybe it's too much to ask. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

 

But Edelman's not getting younger, bradys not either, and it takes a long time to learn how to play receiver for the Patriots. I want to be optimistic but maybe it's too much to ask. 

maybe the geniuses should change the offense? SO its easier for Sanu/Dorsett? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

I can't remember him connecting on a deep ball this year.  He kept trying when it was there but it never worked.  I'm not going to pretend to know more about football than Brady but when the ball gets there and there's two defenders all over the receiver, one of these things happened.  Maybe the quarterback misread the coverage.  Probably not. It happened way too often.  Maybe the receiver was too slow to get a step. Possible, especially when he was taking shots towards Edelman or lacosse. But the other two are that the quarterback doesn't have the arm strength to throw it as far as he wants, or the ball is too slow getting there. And honestly that's way way more likely. 

Imo part of the issue is that he can't throw deep. But that was true when he was young, too. He's never been a mad bomber. It's not like the defenses are scared of him throwing deep.  There's no reason to chuck it in the name of keeping defenses honest if it never works. Just scrap that from the play book.

The other side though is that the receivers dropped more passes this year than at any time in his career. Not just official drops, but passes that a good pass catcher should catch. It's painfully obvious that the receivers were worse than he's used to and it made the offense suffer. This was a lot like the kenbrell thompkins year or the reche Caldwell year. 

That said - do i think his numbers can improve next year? Absolutely.  But it's going to depend on the receivers. It would be fun to get aj green, and maybe he could catch those deep throws or actually keep defenses honest. At least as long as he's healthy.  If harry improves at catching the ball, that would be a big improvement. He was so bad at the end.

But Edelman's not getting younger, bradys not either, and it takes a long time to learn how to play receiver for the Patriots. I want to be optimistic but maybe it's too much to ask. 

Never meant to imply he is hitting on deep balls, only that he can still throw it 60+ yds so the arm strength is still there to see for anyone who actually watches him play. As you said throwing deep was never a big part of his game (I agree) sans moss. You are talking as if he is going to play in NE next yr and i hope u r right but for the first time I am pretty pessimistic about that, i think it is more likely than not he leaves. Very sad, i doubt the grass will be any greener than where he currently is and it likely won't end well for him but i do honestly believe he can still play. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

maybe the geniuses should change the offense? SO its easier for Sanu/Dorsett? 

They did. In the Baltimore game they threw like 15 straight curls to sanu and it worked really well for a while. But he struggled big time once they took those away, and as a mid season trade they didn't have a chance to learn a complete new offense together.  Dorsett didn't get a ton of targets because his best routes aren't a great fit for Brady's diminishing skillset.  He's much better as a role player than a primary option.  Teams started to cover white with a defensive back because they didn't need their best d back on guys like sanu, and they didn't need to bracket Edelman every play because he was hurt.  The offense was a mess by the end specifically because they had to adjust so much mid season. 

I think McDaniels also had to deal with Brady repeatedly taking deep shots on early downs, leaving himself in third and manageable, but unable to convert because the ball clanged off the receiver's hands again and again. 

I don't think you're actually trying to have a substantive conversation here,  using the word geniuses sarcastically, but those are my honest thoughts.  I think the demise of Brady is a bit overstated but things have definitely changed and that needs to be taken into account during the off season.  

And @NE_REVIVAL i do think he comes back, I do want him back, and i expect that all sides want that too but are posturing because money.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At a certain point I think egos get in the way and the desire is strong to prove the ability to succeed is independent of each other. I sense the BB/Brady relationship is at that crossroad considering the end is near anyway.

Edited by JetMaxx
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A lot of overreaction here, imo. 
 

Also, I think some of you forget how strong Brady’s arm is/was. He didn’t come into the league with a cannon but he developed his arm into one. 
 

Deep passes this year too whom????? Edelman? Who is this deep threat? 
 

Im certainly not a Brady guy (give me Montana over everyone,) but I almost wonder if Belichick set Tom Terrific up to fail just so he could push him out. By not giving Brady much help (After AB and Gordon were dumped,) he was given the chance to put the team on his shoulders all by himself and Brady simply can’t do that anymore. He did try but anyone who’s watched the Patriots even a little bit can see his receivers get no separation. 
 

I wouldnt put a fork in him just yet. You throw him on a team with some weapons and he will contend for a tittle. 
 

 

Edited by STEADYMOBBIN 22
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, bostonfred said:

They did. In the Baltimore game they threw like 15 straight curls to sanu and it worked really well for a while. But he struggled big time once they took those away, and as a mid season trade they didn't have a chance to learn a complete new offense together.  Dorsett didn't get a ton of targets because his best routes aren't a great fit for Brady's diminishing skillset.  He's much better as a role player than a primary option.  Teams started to cover white with a defensive back because they didn't need their best d back on guys like sanu, and they didn't need to bracket Edelman every play because he was hurt.  The offense was a mess by the end specifically because they had to adjust so much mid season. 

I think McDaniels also had to deal with Brady repeatedly taking deep shots on early downs, leaving himself in third and manageable, but unable to convert because the ball clanged off the receiver's hands again and again. 

I don't think you're actually trying to have a substantive conversation here,  using the word geniuses sarcastically, but those are my honest thoughts.  I think the demise of Brady is a bit overstated but things have definitely changed and that needs to be taken into account during the off season.  

And @NE_REVIVAL i do think he comes back, I do want him back, and i expect that all sides want that too but are posturing because money.  

It can't really be about money though, as we all know how filthy rich he is.  Comes down to respect, feeling like he sacrificed for the team and wasn't given enough back recently. Maybe money is a way to show that respect but I highly doubt he gives a crap about the money. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

I almost wonder if Belichick set Tom Terrific up to fail just so he could push him out

Come on, man. No, this is not what happened.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Sure, every team has dropped passes. According to Fox Sports, NE dropped 40 passes this year. They have the Ravens dropping 14. My overall point was that Brady's passing numbers would have looked better without all the dropped passes and folks would not have been quite as eager to declare that the wheels were falling off of Brady in front of our own eyes. If Brady had 20 more completions out of those 40 drops (and 1 more TD pass), his QB rating would have been 92.7 . . . and ranked 14th in that category. That would have been a higher passer rating than he had in 7 other seasons.

IMO, that fits with the narrative that Brady is middle of the pack these days. With better health to his surrounding players and more practice time with his receivers, I would expect Brady to still be in that range (should he return to NE). Yes he is declining, but the rate of decline may not be as great as some folks are making it.

True.  Also true that the rat of decline with age may not be a straight line, but may be curvilinear.  Time will tell.  It will be an interesting off season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Tool said:

It can't really be about money though, as we all know how filthy rich he is.  Comes down to respect, feeling like he sacrificed for the team and wasn't given enough back recently. Maybe money is a way to show that respect but I highly doubt he gives a crap about the money.

I don't follow the logic here. If money isn't his priority, what more exactly would the team have done to reward him and "show that respect"?

Brady has played for the Patriots for 19 seasons, missing the one season due to injury. In the other 18 seasons, the organization put championship-caliber teams around him for at least 14 of them (counting all the seasons reaching at least AFCCG plus the 14-2 season losing in the divisional round). Targets were lacking in 2019, but that hasn't typically been the case, and he has also typically had solid or better pass blocking. The team drafted successor QBs and moved on from them multiple times (e.g., Brissett, Garoppolo) to stick with Brady. He has always had elite coaching and played for one of the best owners in the NFL.

Seriously, what has been lacking? Seems like it has been the perfect marriage, and IMO Brady would be extremely foolish to go elsewhere. I don't think he is an extremely foolish guy, which is why I have expected him to be back with the Patriots all along.

Edited by Just Win Baby

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Me, I don't see the Patriots as being in a position to bring him back and to give him the tools he needs to succeed due to salary cap issues.  I also do not see another apparent landing spot.  Of course the fact that I do not see something does not mean that the thing is not apparent to others. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Come on, man. No, this is not what happened.

Seems to me Brady is adored by the owner and Bill Belichicks standard operating procedure has been to always move players a year or two early rather than too late. 
 

If Brady looks finished, BB could convince Kraft that Tom is at the end and the Pats should move on. 
 

This is entirely me speculating because none of us actually knows. It’s just weird that Tom has been allowed to play on an expiring contract and even he doesn’t seem to know the future. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My feeling is the best result in 2020 for both Bill Belichick and Tom Brady is for Brady to play in NE in 2020. I don't see any really good landing spots for Tom, and his familiarity with the NE offense makes up for the limitations he is starting to experience physically. Now the Patriots may decide to move on from Brady and take a lesser product in 2020 in hopes of becoming successful sooner with someone else at QB in the future.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Ditkaless Wonders said:

True.  Also true that the rat of decline with age may not be a straight line, but may be curvilinear.  Time will tell.  It will be an interesting off season.

I nominate "Rat of Decline" as our new moniker for Tom Brady.

  • Like 2
  • Laughing 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

I almost wonder if Belichick set Tom Terrific up to fail just so he could push him out. By not giving Brady much help (After AB and Gordon were dumped,) 

It's rare for a team to sign or trade for a receiver midseason.  Belichick signed arguably the best receiver in the league and traded a second round pick for another receiver.  I can't think of a team doing more midseason to procure weapons for their quarterback in the history of the NFL.

Edited by Don Hutson

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brady was dealing with several different injuries this year.  It could explain why he looked so awful especially as the season progressed.  It does give some hope that he can rebound.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I nominate "Rat of Decline" as our new moniker for Tom Brady.

You can't just take the first "e" out of a well known phrase and use it to describe someone.

But if you could all you guys would be "Made in the USA". 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

I don't follow the logic here. If money isn't his priority, what more exactly would the team have done to reward him and "show that respect"?

Brady has played for the Patriots for 19 seasons, missing the one season due to injury. In the other 18 seasons, the organization put championship-caliber teams around him for at least 14 of them (counting all the seasons reaching at least AFCCG plus the 14-2 season losing in the divisional round). Targets were lacking in 2019, but that hasn't typically been the case, and he has also typically had solid or better pass blocking. The team drafted successor QBs and moved on from them multiple times (e.g., Brissett, Garoppolo) to stick with Brady. He has always had elite coaching and played for one of the best owners in the NFL.

Seriously, what has been lacking? Seems like it has been the perfect marriage, and IMO Brady would be extremely foolish to go elsewhere. I don't think he is an extremely foolish guy, which is why I have expected him to be back with the Patriots all along.

There have been rumored grumblings over the years, Brady has said to have been called out, even berated, in front of the team during film review sessions for making mistakes that really didn't impact games. He also has expressed that he feels BB has not supported him enough in the media and that BB goes out of his way not to recognize him in front of the team for his accomplishments (game balls, internal player of the week, earning days off for working hard in practice, etc.).

Brady is also rumored to have wanted more of a say in game planning, play calling, scheming, and on-field decisions. Some say he has felt the team has installed vanilla schemes and conservative plays and he has wanted to tried to amp up the offense. He also has begged to go for it on 4th down instead of kick and that usually falls on deaf ears.

Brady has also apparently wanted more say in personnel decisions. Some reports have said he was confident Gronk would play in 2019 . . . but BB wouldn't budge on the number he wanted to pay him and Gronk walked away instead. Brady really wanted AB and that made him happy . . . for a week until they released him against Brady's wishes. It has been said that Sanu was Brady's pick to acquire mid season (which really did not work out as planned up until this point). Brady has mentioned several times he wants to play with veterans not kids, so if it were up to him, they would make a lot more trades to bring in established receivers like they did with Sanu and Cooks.

There also has been an up and down history of Brady taking less money to upgrade the offense. NE brought in a whole new receiving core for the 2007 season. But Brady took a below market deal several years later where he felt the Pats would re-sign Welker and bring in help. But they did neither. With the contract deadline set when it is, Brady will have to get an IOU from NE again and a promise of upgrades on offense (they won't be able to sign players before Brady has to sign an extension).

Brady would likely accept a lesser deal again from NE, but he will likely demand they address all the things I just went over in some degree. Similarly, I doubt Brady would be happy if the plan is for him to groom his replacement, as he has already said that isn't his job. That could also get contentious in the negotiating process.

Ultimately, I think there would be way too much change in the Brady household to pick up and switch teams for what would likely be a relatively short time frame. The issue will be whether TB12 will want to play for the amount that NE will want to offer him.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I nominate "Rat of Decline" as our new moniker for Tom Brady.

Dammit. Now I have to leave it uncorrected.  Too good to not do so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

There have been rumored grumblings over the years, Brady has said to have been called out, even berated, in front of the team during film review sessions for making mistakes that really didn't impact games. He also has expressed that he feels BB has not supported him enough in the media and that BB goes out of his way not to recognize him in front of the team for his accomplishments (game balls, internal player of the week, earning days off for working hard in practice, etc.).

This paints a pretty poor picture of Brady, to be honest. Is he really this insecure? I almost feel bad for him (and I'm not saying that sarcastically).

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

This paints a pretty poor picture of Brady, to be honest. Is he really this insecure? I almost feel bad for him (and I'm not saying that sarcastically).

I have heard a lot of discussion about this type of stuff over the years. Some feel it was BB motivating other players on the team. Others think it may have gone over the line.

For example, several former players have indicated that it was standard practice for a while that on the first tape review session of a new season, BB would pick out a package of bad reads / passes/ decisions by TB and rip into him that no matter how good a player was, that player could still get better. Bill would show other guys that were open on the play and Brady holding the ball and getting strip sacked or throwing a pick. On a couple of occasions, BB got so animated and agitated that he slammed a clipboard on a desk or on the ground and it got smashed. His mantra was you never know when a single play could change your entire season and they are all important.

The former players retelling the story said this was their first day of practice on the team, and they took it that no one was above the team, it's Bill's way or the highway, and even the GOAT doesn't get a pass and is held accountable. Some of this guys had played on other teams and said early in the off season on other teams, it was always a joke. They came away saying that they needed to have their stuff together right out of the gate and NE was serious business. A couple of them said NE had just won a SB and Bill was already in a fervor 45 minutes into the first practice.

But BB has also been known to clown around with the team, pulling practical jokes on players, having silly contests, and pulling a random guy and having him try to do something for the benefit of everyone. Like taking a defensive tackle and having him tuck a ball under each arm and if he could catch a pass from ten yards away without a ball hitting the ground, the team would get the next day off. Or in the old days, swapping the snapper and the kicker on an extra point try (with the full compliment of special teamers running the play) and if they made it they got the next practice off. Or taking an offensive lineman and having him run the 40, and if he could do it under a certain time on a hot day the whole team would not have to run that day in practice. And his practices involving the weather are well known (practicing in the mud, in the snow, in weather in the single digits, or cranking the heat on as high as it could go and practicing indoors to simulate Miami weather). He's also had a ton of football history days where basically they watch videos from different eras of football and eat popcorn all day. Anyway, he would do all this stuff and seemed to have a lot more chemistry and camaraderie with the rest of the team and a lot less of that with Brady (allegedly).

There have been stories that Brady actually complained when BB would single out a guy that would not even make their final roster for a kick coverage play in training camp when Brady went like 27 for 27 in practice and scrimmages. Or BB would give a game ball to someone that made a key block that allowed the team to run out the clock in a close win (when Brady had a huge game).

I don't know what is real or what is imagined, if BB and TB have personalities that sometimes clash, if TB has self-esteem issues or has turned into a bit of a diva, if BB wished Brady was gone a long time ago, etc. But there definitely feels like they have not been BFF's for awhile now and I don't think they go out for beers after the game or take turns going to the other's place to watch MNF. This plays into TB wanting to have more of a voice in decisions and not always feeling like the team fully values him.

  • Like 1
  • Thinking 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Ultimately, I think there would be way too much change in the Brady household to pick up and switch teams for what would likely be a relatively short time frame. The issue will be whether TB12 will want to play for the amount that NE will want to offer him.

My armchair analysis, which is both less thorough and less detailed than yours, is 60 retire / 30 return to Pats / 10 play elsewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

My armchair analysis, which is both less thorough and less detailed than yours, is 60 retire / 30 return to Pats / 10 play elsewhere.

From the people I watch / read / follow, Brady has made it clear he is not retiring and he will be playing football next year. In fact, retiring may be so off the table now that I might not even list that as an option. The only way I think retiring makes it back as a consideration is if NE doesn't really want him back and / or they offer him like a $10 million, one year deal and no other team in the league wants him for a fair market deal. If his entire market is NE for $10 million or nothing, maybe he would have second thoughts about playing. But I don't see that happening, as there will be a team that would be willing to overpay him to get fannies in the seats and interest in their organization.

If you had to remove "retire" from your outcome percentages, how would you remap the "return to Pats" and "play elsewhere" allocations?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For those that like to connect the dots, Brady was at UFC last night and is said to be friends with McGregor. McGregor works for White. White is friends with Davis of the Raiders. So of course now there is talk of Brady playing for Vegas. 

  • Laughing 1
  • Thinking 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I continue to not see the rationale for any team other than NE to sign Brady.

In theory, he might provide a one-time boost in ticket sales and possibly merchandise sales. But he is a short term downgrade for most teams at QB and offers nothing long term.

People may disagree with short term downgrade, but here is how I see it. Last season, he was a below average QB. In a scenario in which he goes to another team, he starts over in a new offensive system with new coaches and new teammates. While new teammates could possibly represent an upgrade in some areas, teammates include passing targets but also OL, defense, and special teams, so any perceived upgrade in targets is likely offset by other downgrades. And coaching would be an absolute downgrade.

Also, the team that signs him still has to have a new QB within 2 years, and has the privilege of paying Brady $20M+ per season in the meantime.

Alternatively, assuming Brees , Tannehill, and Rivers stay in place, teams could target Bridgewater instead. Or Winston (someone will think they can fix him). Or Rosen (via trade). Or Newton (via trade or if he is released). I may be missing some others. None of these seem like top QB options, but neither is Brady at this point.

I'm sure Brady is smart enough to realize these things and I expect he plans to re-sign in New England. All of this stuff in the media is just typical media noise.

Edited by Just Win Baby

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

Last season, he was a below average QB.

Admittedly, Brady and the NE offense didn’t look great last year. I posed this question in other threads, but pick any other QB (probably not Lamar as he is not similar to Brady) and realistically how well would that guy have done and what would his stat line have been? Assume 16 games played from the mystery QB and that he was there since March. 

But that player would get a banged up OL the first half of the season. Half a season of Gordon. Half a season of a healthy Edelman. Half a season of Sanu. One game of AB. No running game most of the season. No TE production. Watson playing on a torn Achilles. 

How well would Mahomes have done? Wilson? Brees? Rodgers? Or anyone else? Would that QB have done leaps and bounds better in the same situation?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

Admittedly, Brady and the NE offense didn’t look great last year. I posed this question in other threads, but pick any other QB (probably not Lamar as he is not similar to Brady) and realistically how well would that guy have done and what would his stat line have been? Assume 16 games played from the mystery QB and that he was there since March. 

But that player would get a banged up OL the first half of the season. Half a season of Gordon. Half a season of a healthy Edelman. Half a season of Sanu. One game of AB. No running game most of the season. No TE production. Watson playing on a torn Achilles. 

How well would Mahomes have done? Wilson? Brees? Rodgers? Or anyone else? Would that QB have done leaps and bounds better in the same situation?

Based on the context of my post to which you responded, are you suggesting through your response that Brady could go a number of other places and immediately be an above average QB since he would be playing with better offensive teammates? We can agree to disagree on that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Based on the context of my post to which you responded, are you suggesting through your response that Brady could go a number of other places and immediately be an above average QB since he would be playing with better offensive teammates? We can agree to disagree on that.

That isn’t remotely what I asked. I have already said that Brady is average and should not be considered a difference maker at this stage. My question inferred that given the state of the NE offense this year that having a different QB probably would not have changed the effectiveness of the offense. 

However, had Brady been on the Chiefs since the start of training camp this year, he would have looked a lot better than he did in NE. But Brady and Mahomes aren’t switching teams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Pat's had god awful weapons this year.  Bottom 5?  

Of course for a number of reasons Bradys best chance of success is to play in New England, but that doesnt mean he will if he knows he is going right back into that same situation.  

I do think he either retires or plays in NE, but ya never know.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

San Diego QB position is open. Rivers is going to collect paychecks in Miami going forward. He just moved there.

Edited by lod001

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

The Pat's had god awful weapons this year.  Bottom 5?  

Of course for a number of reasons Bradys best chance of success is to play in New England, but that doesnt mean he will if he knows he is going right back into that same situation.  

I do think he either retires or plays in NE, but ya never know.  

Him and Brees will be out there in wheelchairs battling for the TD and yardage record. Advantage Brees.

  • Laughing 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:


How well would Mahomes have done? Wilson? Brees? Rodgers? Or anyone else? Would that QB have done leaps and bounds better in the same situation?

Rodgers is an interesting comparison to Brady this year.

Stats are very similar. Rodgers was dealing with limited weapons for a good chunk of the year when D. Adams was out. Still, he had Graham, a strong running game with A. Jones/J. Williams, and then D. Adams once he recovered from his injury.

A. Rodgers: 353-569-4002-26-4-95.4

T. Brady: 373-613-4057-24-8-88

Really not a significant difference in performance.

So Rodgers to me had a better supporting cast and had slightly better results.

Don't hear many saying Rodgers is done.

Have a feeling he would have struggled quite a bit in NE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Rodgers is an interesting comparison to Brady this year.

Stats are very similar. Rodgers was dealing with limited weapons for a good chunk of the year when D. Adams was out. Still, he had Graham, a strong running game with A. Jones/J. Williams, and then D. Adams once he recovered from his injury.

A. Rodgers: 353-569-4002-26-4-95.4

T. Brady: 373-613-4057-24-8-88

Really not a significant difference in performance.

So Rodgers to me had a better supporting cast and had slightly better results.

Don't hear many saying Rodgers is done.

Have a feeling he would have struggled quite a bit in NE.

You are citing Graham as a positive?

Regardless, no one is saying Rodgers is done because he just turned 36 in December. Brady is 42. The difference between their future outlooks is as simple as that.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

You are citing Graham as a positive?

Regardless, no one is saying Rodgers is done because he just turned 36 in December. Brady is 42. The difference between their future outlooks is as simple as that.

Graham moves slightly better than a statue now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Graham moves slightly better than a statue now.

Graham moves slightly better than Ben Watson, who says he played this year with a torn Achilles. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/16/2020 at 4:22 AM, STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

A lot of overreaction here, imo. 

Also, I think some of you forget how strong Brady’s arm is/was. He didn’t come into the league with a cannon but he developed his arm into one. 

Deep passes this year too whom????? Edelman? Who is this deep threat? 

Im certainly not a Brady guy (give me Montana over everyone,) but I almost wonder if Belichick set Tom Terrific up to fail just so he could push him out. By not giving Brady much help (After AB and Gordon were dumped,) he was given the chance to put the team on his shoulders all by himself and Brady simply can’t do that anymore. He did try but anyone who’s watched the Patriots even a little bit can see his receivers get no separation. 

I wouldnt put a fork in him just yet. You throw him on a team with some weapons and he will contend for a tittle.

I think the bolded font is spot-on. The rest of the comment I'm not in agreement with, but these are two very important points I think people are missing. He developed a great arm. And who was he going to throw the ball deep to this year, even on deep outs. His receivers couldn't get separation. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I think the bolded font is spot-on. The rest of the comment I'm not in agreement with, but these are two very important points I think people are missing. He developed a great arm. And who was he going to throw the ball deep to this year, even on deep outs. His receivers couldn't get separation. 

This isn't exactly true as stated.

Per PFF, among all QBs in 2019 who attempted at least 20 deep passes, Brady ranked #26 in percentage of deep passes (10.1%) and #18 in deep pass accuracy. I'm sure some of the reason for both numbers being lower than in past seasons is the surrounding players on offense, but I'm equally sure that some of the reason is dropoff in Brady's play.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Just Win Baby said:

This isn't exactly true as stated.

Per PFF, among all QBs in 2019 who attempted at least 20 deep passes, Brady ranked #26 in percentage of deep passes (10.1%) and #18 in deep pass accuracy. I'm sure some of the reason for both numbers being lower than in past seasons is the surrounding players on offense, but I'm equally sure that some of the reason is dropoff in Brady's play.

Thanks for posting. I know that's per PFF, but where did you pull those stats? I think I have a fantasy scrip there, but am not checking the articles daily or even the next gen stats that I think are only available for Elite subscribers.

I also agree with your conclusion. I think he's been affected by his guys, but there's also been a visible physical decline over the past three years, actually, that nobody really saw or was hidden through game plans, etc. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, rockaction said:

Thanks for posting. I know that's per PFF, but where did you pull those stats? I think I have a fantasy scrip there, but am not checking the articles daily or even the next gen stats that I think are only available for Elite subscribers.

I also agree with your conclusion. I think he's been affected by his guys, but there's also been a visible physical decline over the past three years, actually, that nobody really saw or was hidden through game plans, etc. 

I linked the site with the separation data. The deep pass data is from PFF premium stats.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.