Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
QB Tom Brady, TB (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter ComfortablyNumb
- Start date
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
75/25 pats / elsewhere.
But I think the scenario you mentioned (nobody wants to pay him 35mm a year including the Pats is very real.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I was wondering what the straw would be to break the camel's back and get me to not listen to sports talk radio . . . and I think I have found it.
The chatter today was how badly the Patriots messed up with Jimmy G and that they had the next great QB and they gave him away for next to nothing. Garoppolo is 23-5 as a starter. The Niners are in the SB and NE is home and in chaos. The Pats would have gone to the same two SBs they went to with Brady with Jimmy G. Blah blah blah.
Of course, they leave out he had made a total of two starts in his career when they traded him to SF and the market rate for an unproven backup generally has maxed out at a second round pick over the last 20 years. They were talking today that they easily could have had two firsts and a second for Jimmy.
Here’s what NE turned that one second round pick from SF into . . .
CB Duke Dawson
LB Christian Sam
CB Joejuan Williams
RB Damien Harris
OT Yodny Cajuste
QB Jarrett Stidham
DT Byron Cowart
2020 fourth-round pick
The other part that was rich was they talked about how NE had both Garoppolo AND Brisett and now they have nothing behind Brady. The irony is that back in the day they ragged on those two and at the time said they would never be NFL quarterbacks. Of course, they made Stidham out to be horrible too.
Sure, it would be nice if the Pats still had Garoppolo but that was never going to happen.
The chatter today was how badly the Patriots messed up with Jimmy G and that they had the next great QB and they gave him away for next to nothing. Garoppolo is 23-5 as a starter. The Niners are in the SB and NE is home and in chaos. The Pats would have gone to the same two SBs they went to with Brady with Jimmy G. Blah blah blah.
Of course, they leave out he had made a total of two starts in his career when they traded him to SF and the market rate for an unproven backup generally has maxed out at a second round pick over the last 20 years. They were talking today that they easily could have had two firsts and a second for Jimmy.
Here’s what NE turned that one second round pick from SF into . . .
CB Duke Dawson
LB Christian Sam
CB Joejuan Williams
RB Damien Harris
OT Yodny Cajuste
QB Jarrett Stidham
DT Byron Cowart
2020 fourth-round pick
The other part that was rich was they talked about how NE had both Garoppolo AND Brisett and now they have nothing behind Brady. The irony is that back in the day they ragged on those two and at the time said they would never be NFL quarterbacks. Of course, they made Stidham out to be horrible too.
Sure, it would be nice if the Pats still had Garoppolo but that was never going to happen.
Last edited by a moderator:
-OZ-
Footballguy
35m is insane for Brady at this point.
Titans will probably pay tannehill between $25-30, maybe on 3 years. I wouldn't be terribly upset if they gave a two year deal at ~$55m to Brady instead.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Thank you. I quit listening to that drivel a couple years ago. It's all retrofitting the current situation to the narrative. As you said, they never said any of this at the time.
I'll listen to an actual game or update while on the road, but that's all those hacks get from me.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Anarchy99
Footballguy
They couldn’t keep him. So what they got is mostly irrelevant. But it’s way too soon to tell if that list of players will turn into anything. Although we can probably take JoeJuan Williams off the list. He got arrested on three drug charges since I posted the list of players.
Looks like he had 'a controlled substance', 'drug paraphernelia, and prescription drugs w/o a prescription. That could be a wide range of things but if it's just weed and Vicodin might not be a big deal.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Let’s face it. Bill traded his best long term asset for peanuts. Ironically Mr military strong arm was strong armed into doing the worst possible move for the team’s long term success. Without question he traded Jimmy G for a pile and the team now suffers as a result. Surely burns him.
Last edited by a moderator:
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
They'll be quiet when Jimmy throws 2 picks and fumbles in the SB.
Tbh, I hope I'm wrong but I think KC is going to embarass SF.
DropKick
Footballguy
Brady was the Patriots best chance at a SB and he won another. They got what they wanted. Of course, there would be a time when Jimmy G would become more valuable but they couldn't keep both guys financially. The timing simply wasn't right.
I think any team would take a SB in hand even if it means they're less positioned for the long run. Every situation is correctable.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Rivers' house is in Blue Mountain Beach which is near Destin. He is 583 miles from Miami. But he does have a sweet customized SUV that he used for his San Diego to LA commute.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Nobody knew squat about Garoppolo at the time. He had played 6 quarters of football. NE was not getting much more than what they got for him. A second round pick. They took that pick and traded it for multiple other picks that landed them the players I listed.
Anyone that thinks Jimmy G was some savant, generational, can’t miss QB is revising history. NE traded him while they still could before he became a free agent.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If Brady did leave, would Edelman somehow follow him? Trade?
Seems like he needs that guy. They need each other really
Seems like he needs that guy. They need each other really
I remember thinking at the time they could’ve gotten a bit more. Think they wanted to trade out of conference and Belichek just kinda said eff it.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
They were up against the trade deadline in the middle of the season. Whoever the trade partner was going to be would have taken on Jimmy G for half a season with no guarantee he would re-sign there. So they would have to either franchise him or give him a boatload of money without a ton of experience. Not sure they could have gotten much more than they did. Maybe if they shopped him around they might have gotten a late round pick tossed in. Way too many question marks involved to get a ton back for Garoppolo. He looked ok against the Cardinals in his first start for NE and looked great in the first half against the Dolphins the following week but got hurt. Not a ton to go on for evaluating his future success.
As I mentioned earlier, if he got shipped off to a team like the Bengals, Redskins, etc., there wouldn’t be the revisionist history narrative that NE mucked things up. Similarly, Stidham has received high marks so far. The Patriots supplied SF and IND with viable NFL starters. One would think they may have something to work with in Stidham.
The real issue was Brady stayed playing at a high level for longer than most QBs and that messed up the timing in having Jimmy G stick with the team as an heir apparent.
msommer
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
I'd take Brady over Garoppolo right now, let alone 3 years ago. They certainly don't win the Super Bowl last year without Brady. I highly doubt Jimmy G beats KC, let alone the Rams, hell, they probably don't even get the #2 seed. In 2017, I highly doubt Jimmy G makes it past the Jags defense. Even Brady needed 2 TD's in the last 9 minutes to come from behind. This year, the story is likely the same as it ended up being, not enough weapons.Anarchy99 said:
I'm not sure Stidham and Brissett are all that different either, although that isn't a compliment toward Stidham from me.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
We know that Cassell, Hoyer and Brissett have limited ceilings (Brissett being better than the other two, but somewhere short of franchise).
We don't know yet what Jimmy is. If we see 175/1/3 or 375/3/0 in the superbowl that will go part way in figuring out that riddle. I think he will perform at one of these two extremes.
We have no idea what Stidham is.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
That's my recollection, as well. I'm pretty sure the consensus at the time was that the Pats didn't get as much in return as most thought they could.
Where did this idea come from that Brissett is even a decent QB? He sucks. He's under 60% completions, and well under 7 YPA. That is almost hard to do in this era. The only good things I can say about him, is that he is pretty good at avoiding INT's, and has ok mobility. He's a poor man's Tyrod Taylor. Getting Philip Dorsett for him was a pretty even deal.
Stidham was a pretty sizable reach when he was drafted, and was really rough in his limited work. The book is obviously still being written on him, but its also very possible, if not probable, that he never sees the field again. He had one of the only times I've ever seen a backup QB come in to close out the game, and perform so badly, that they brought the starter back in.
I feel very comfortable saying Garoppolo with never be as good as Brady was in 2016-2018. I just don't think he's that talented. Obviously, though he doesn't have to, as the 49ers aren't set up for the QB to need to have huge games. I think Garoppolo is more in line with your Jared Goff/Kirk Cousins types, who can certainly lead a talented offense, but need to be raised up by teammates/playcalling as opposed to raising them up himself. it certainly helps him that Kyle Shanahan is probably the best playcaller in the NFL right now.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
My only claim about Brissett is that he's better than Cassell and Hoyer. I'd say I'd take him over Tyrod Taylor as well.
Stidham dealt with a lot of adversity in college. I think that is the secret sauce BB was looking for....which may be a fool's errand (trying to "reproduce" getting a Brady).
I think the book on Jimmy G is yet to be written, but this superbowl's results will be interesting foreshadowing.
There was a lot of interest in Garapalolo at the time. I recall the Browns having strong interest. That they could’ve gotten more i’m not sure is even a question.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Why did NE settle for a 2nd rd pick? Was it because Kraft and Brady wanted him gone, and sooner the better?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Who knows if the speculation by reporters was even true. But IIRC, that was before the season and not a couple of days before the trade deadline. If you go back and look at what back up QBs with hardly any experience have gone for, they have not gone for first round picks.
The reality was MAYBE they could have gotten a second rounder from CLE, which at the time the trade went down was not much different than the SF pick. The Niners finished the season strong and that caused the pick to slide some, but as I said multiple times, a massive haul for Jimmy G. Would have gone against what the market was for backups. Especially for ones that were unsigned for the following year.
Belichek has relationship with Shanahan and also wanted to send Garapolo to good situation and maybe took a little less to send him out of conference
JohnnyU
Footballguy
True. And perhaps he wanted to be proven right by trading him to a team where he’d succeed.Belichick didn't want to move him
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Was JG a restricted FA when they traded him? Are you saying they couldn't have kept him another year or two? Would he have been a restricted FA or UFA the next year?
Last edited by a moderator:
Anarchy99
Footballguy
He was set to becoming me an UFA. He was said to have been offered a high dollar back up QB deal but said no way. The only way to keep him would have been to franchise him. And they weren’t carrying $50 million worth of quarterbacks.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
This.
The more interesting question is why SF? Moving him out of conference, moving him to a place where he could succeed, moving him to Shanahan, moving him to Lynch have all been mentioned as explanations for SF over CLE....we'll probably never know the exact reasons but I suspect "all of the above"...
rockaction
Footballguy
That's, as always, an overstatement and straw man. There were those of us saying that they didn't get enough for Jimmy G or didn't do enough to keep him and ease Brady out the door. IIRC, they had the franchise tag for him, though there were rumors he wanted none of that (who does?). Anyway, NE had to essentially make a choice and made the wrong one. There were definitely people arguing for Garoppolo and that's why the story about Belichick/Kraft came out, which some people (hmm...) pooh-poohed as not true when in fact it likely was, Belichick being smart enough to know when to move on.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I mentioned several times that wanting more for Jimmy G. was mostly a pipe dream. In other threads, I posted what other back up QBs went for over the past few decades. Maybe they could have gotten the Browns second round pick and a 5th thrown in. Sure, that may have been “more” but not that much more. The time to trade him was in the prior offseason. Then they MAY have gotten a first . . . and that would have set a new bar for acquisition of a back up, especially one set to become a free agent.
The team acquiring Jimmy G was getting him for half a season with no guarantee he would resign, so to keep him he may have had to have been tagged. NE could have tagged him to keep him but that would have amounted to a salary cap hit to keep two QB’s in the $50+ million range. And come on, NE wasn’t trading Brady mid season.
For those saying NE kept the wrong guy, after trading Garoppolo they went to back to back SB’s. No one knows what would have happened if JG was the QB in those seasons.
It’s no secret that in terms of succession planning teams would rather have a 25 year old QB than a 40 year old. But there is a strong case to be made that NE would not have gone to those SB’s without Brady.
We won’t know for years the outcome to their decision. Garoppolo could bust out and NE could win again with Brady (although unlikely) or another QB (more likely). Jimmy could become the next big thing and NE could miss the playoffs for a decade. Too soon to tell.
rockaction
Footballguy
Fair points, Anarchy99. I was just talking about the legitimacy of those who saw the flip side a long time ago.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Also, a 6th superbowl win (and 8th and 9th appearance) for Brady was more valuable to the Patriots organization than a first appearance and win would have been for Jimmy g. The chance to have the only guy to win seven is worth virtually whatever it costs to keep him.
Having a good young player is nice but it isn't the goal. The Colts traded away a superbowl window with an injured manning because they had a chance to draft luck. They never won a title with luck.
The Broncos had a young first round pick in Tim Tebow who had just brought them to a playoff win the year before. They dumped him instantly to bring in manning.
I don't there's any question about the decision except among people that don't like Brady or the Patriots to begin with.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I get that SO MANY PEOPLE are sick of NE that they are lining up to find fault with the things they have done. First it's the cheating. Then it's playing in the AFC Least. Then it's just having TB12. People forget how hard it is to be competitive in ONE SEASON let alone MANY SEASONS.
Someday people will (hopefully) look back and really be awestruck at what they have accomplished. But living it in real time, people just accepted what they have done as being normal (or "tainted"). The Patriots in the last decade AVERAGED 12.5 wins a year and had 12 wins in 9 of the 10 seasons. Only one team (Denver) had 4 seasons of 12 wins.
Compare that to the rest of the league and 11 teams did not hit 12 wins in a season over the past 10 years (including the Colts) and 9 more only accomplished it once. That's 62.5% of the league with 0 or 1 season with 12 wins. So yeah, I chuckle when I hear that NE is now "done." They are so "done" that they have the 4th best odds of winning the SB next year . . . and that factors in a TON of uncertainty about what the team will look like.
All that being said, I am not so sure that keeping Brady at all costs is the way to go. NE needs to keep key pieces and upgrade on offense. Not sure the math is in their favor to keep Brady, the other free agents, and upgrade the offense. Brady is worth keeping around if they can accomplish the other two items . . . but that would require Tom to stick around for LESS than he's been making.
On a side note, I have seen places / people projecting the market for Brady at 3 years for $80-90 million all guaranteed. I don't see it that way, but that's what has been reported by some folks. Maybe speculated might be a better word than reported. I also heard on local radio that 6-8 teams are interested in Brady . . . but that doesn't tell us much. We don't know for how much, how long, and if those teams are destinations Brady would have any interest in playing in. I doubt he would go somewhere in a rebuild or to be brought in to mentor a young guy. If that range is really an accurate number, I just don't see NE going there and I don't believe they really should. Remember, if we get to 3/18 and Brady hasn't resigned with the Pats, then they have to add another $13.5 million in a cap hit on top of whatever contract they would have to give him. Brady at $30 million AND a $13.5 million additional cap hit? That would be insanity. Maybe 3 years for a total of $50M with the first two seasons guaranteed . . . but much more than that is asking for trouble. They would not do more than a season at a time the past two seasons, so I am not sure they would do that now.
And getting back to the Patriots being "done" or Belichick leaving, I GUARANTEE that BB is chomping at the bit to show everyone that he can win without Tom. He will work 24 hours a day (instead of the 23 and a half he works now) to prove it. It will be his biggest challenge yet when that day comes, and IMO there is NO WAY he will pass that up to go manage the Giants, the Browns, or some other team.
As I mentioned in another thread, this is the first time in a decade that the Patriots have an extra month to prepare for next season. That means more scouting of college kids, more crunching of numbers, more devoted to exploring trades and free agency, more rest for the players, etc. I've said it before. With or without Brady, BB didn't forget how to coach and didn't forget how to manage the salary cap. We'll have to wait and see what happens, but I think the Patriots are far from "done." The last time they lost in the first round, the following year they went to the SB. The last time the offense had vanilla receivers, they went out and brought in Moss, Welker, Stallworth, and Gaffney. But we''' have to wait and see . . .
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
here is the thing Yuds, they cheated and got caught more than once, they are not a class organization, from the owner (massage parlor handys) on down.
BB unless he wins acts like a complete baby.
why are you surprised that people celebrate them losing?
Was it a great amazing run? Yep.....did they cheat like hell? Yep...
They got lucky as hell many times too, from the tuck rule, to 28-3 to Seattle not just giving it to Marshawn, we could go on and on, sure they had some bad luck too, I mean Eli twice? LMFAO. and running into an uber hot Nick Foles.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
who could forget the genius going for it at his own 30 because he knew he couldn't stop peyton that day
bostonfred
Footballguy
Not sure if you're asking seriously but it's actually pretty easy to forget an afc championship game here or there when your team goes to them almost every year.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
That was a regular season game, not the AFCCG. But since you brought it up, that play involved one of the dumbest rules in the game. Faulk caught the ball past the line to gain and had possession of the ball. But when he got hit, he juggled the ball. By rule, the ball was marked where he reacquired possession of the ball, which was just short. Essentially, that is the one instance where they don’t count forward progress, and it cost NE the game. Playing the odds, that had a higher probability of winning than punting did. But coaches usually coach to keep their jobs instead of winning more games.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Spygate, Deflategate, Spygate 2.0. Spygate involved continuing to videotape on the sideline after a guidance memo. Deflategate and Spygate 2.0 don't pass the laugh test as legitimate cheating. So, actually, they did not get "caught more than once". People believe what they want to believe....true for you and true for me.bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
This is completely true. And also true for Brady. And MJ. And Serena. Etc. BB and Brady are not figures who evoke sympathy.
Not speaking for David, celebrating them losing is fine and I would say should be expected...implying they cheated like hell, implying 31 angels and 1 devil, and clinging to the failed asterisk campaign is where the surprise comes in.
Tuck Rule, 28-3, and Pete Carroll's brain fart are offset by the helmet catch, Plexiglass ("I shot myself in the leg!") and Zuchini Foles. The universe evens these things out over time.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As a side note, that same type of play was called in favor of NE a couple of years ago. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins of the Jets caught a ball, established possession, and started to run for the end zone. He dove for the goal line but got stripped and the ball came out for a split second. According to the rules, he needed to re-establish possession to be considered in control of the football. Since he did not re-establish possession and the ball was moving when he landed on the pylon, it was considered a fumble out of the side of the end zone. It wasn't called a touchdown. It wasn't called out of bounds at the 6 inch line. It wasn't called down by contact at the 1 yard line. It was ruled a fumble by the offense out of the end zone and the ball was given to NE and called a touchback. One of the dumbest rules out there. LINK
dhockster
Footballguy
Isn't juggling the ball after having possession technically a fumble? and shouldn't forward progress be determined from where the ball was recovered/repossessed? To me it is no different then if a runner fumbles the ball to the ground, it rolls backward a yard, and then the runner falls on it and gets touched at the spot one yard back. The forward progress is where he recovered it not where he fumbled it, correct? How is juggling the ball in your hands any different than a fumble?Anarchy99 said:
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The problem in this scenario is even when forward progress has stopped, if the player gets pushed backwards and the ball gets juggled they will take away forward progress. In the play with Faulk, he caught the ball, got both feet down, took a step and then got wrapped up. He then got pushed backwards five+ feet and then the ball moved. The ball never came out but they marked him where he was when he got his second hand on the football . . . at about the 29 and a half yard line when he was had advanced to the 31 and a half yard line initially. IMO, I don't see why this type of play shouldn't be called as his forward progress was stopped and down at that point. That's how they call any other play when a player gets pushed back and is not tackled to the ground. I have seen similar plays where the runner was wrapped up and pushed back and the ball was stripped, but in that instance they called the play dead as his forward progress had been stopped. In either play, the ball reached a certain point on the field and the defense pushed the player backwards.
Similar threads
