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WR Keenan Allen, CHI (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sabertooth
- Start date
I was trying to move him in my 10 team dynasty but he's worthless unless I want to give him away. First the knock on this guy was that he couldn't stay healthy. He has now put up three 16-game seasons of 1200+ yards and 6 tds per. He's now a staple of consistency yet he flies under the radar and is undervalued. The change of QB doesn't concern me. I feel he's in line for the same level of production as the past three seasons. Yet, no one wants him.
Tau837
Footballguy
Watkins wasn’t playing in an offense with other targets as talented as Ekeler, Henry, and Williams.
2015 was (a) an outlier best season for Tyrod and (b) 5 years ago. And Tyrod is likely to give way to Herbert at some point anyway.
I will take the under on all three of your floor numbers (90, 1000, 6).
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Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
I think part of the equation is looking at the other side of the ball. That defense is special. The offense will get opportunity. And the team will likely be coming from behind in division games (IMO they don't have a corner that can match up physically with Hill, Ruggs or Sutton - I am not impressed with either Harris Jr or Hayward Jr).
Tyrod really isn't my concern. He is what he is. A good game manager and a QB that doesn't turn the ball over. Eventually they give the keys to Herbert. Then we see an uptick in offense and interceptions. The question is, how fast will they fall behind in games and how many pass attempts will that translate into? How many targets to Allen? And what happens to the offense later in the year once they begin to start Herbert. IMO
Tau837
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
If Herbert ends up starting half or more of the games my expectation would be much fewer passing attempts than usual. I would say -100 passing attempts if Herbert does start over half the games.
Its going to be fewer because of Taylor as well. -100 might be a safe bet regardless.
Its going to be fewer because of Taylor as well. -100 might be a safe bet regardless.
Tyrod stinks. he's gonna look for the primary and then run if there's nothing there. The other guys are the ones that will most definitely suffer.
Herbert as a rookie will be locked into the primary. That's what rookie QBs do.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
If Allen catches the ball 7 times a game for 60 yards as an average as an "off" year, is that worth a spot? I think Allen will lead the team in receptions (if he stays healthy) and there is a potential high upside if the wheels come off the Chargers this year.The more special the defense is, the more conservative the offense will be.
But, for the record, my opinion IS swinging the other way on the Charger's offense as a whole (at least for this year).
Herbert ran a hurry up, single back RPO at Oregon. This offense is not that. To my knowledge, Herbert has not worked in an offense with two RBs. So that is a real issue IMO. He has to learn an entirely new offense. Two RBs. Coordinate blocking schemes. Call audibles. There may be a longer transition period for Herbert than I what first thought. And the Chargers should have known that before drafting him.
That means the Chargers are committed to Tyrod for this season. IMO I agree with you that the offense may bog down and the defense may play up.
Moreover, I believe that Tyrod's is below average at getting the ball out of his hand quickly (which, by comparison, was a strength of Rivers). IMO That difference will hurt players coming out of the backfield or working in the slot. In fact, the more I look at the Chargers, one of my favorite teams in the NFL, the more I am thinking one or two injuries on offense and they are in real trouble.
The only reason I think Allen may turn out to be the player to own is that the situation may turn into a disaster there. The Chargers may be getting blown out towards the end of the year (once people have a handle on the offensive limits). I could be wrong, but I also think Allen is in a contract year. So, potentially (if it is a lost season), Allen may be working on his ticket out of town and trying to get a big payday. He has quietly wanted out of town for a while (to my understanding).
Tau837
Footballguy
You realize that 7 receptions per game is 112 receptions over 16 games, right? In Allen's career, he has averaged 6.1 receptions per game and his career single season high is 104 receptions.
I don't see Allen setting any career records this season. I also don't see him averaging 60 receiving yards per game.
Wait a minute. You are the guy who previously said the defense is special, now you are expecting the Chargers to be getting blown out? Seems a bit inconsistent.
2020 is the final year of Allen's current contract. I had not heard he wants out, though I could see that with Rivers' departure and Lynn seemingly entrenched as head coach.
I have been expecting the Chargers to extend his contract this offseason. We will see.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
They don't have to necessarily give up points on defense. Later in the year, I suspect we will be seeing Herbert. The closer I look at Herbert, the more I think that is going to be a learning experience. Or, to put it another way, IMO Herbert is going to get sacked and throw a lot of interceptions in the beginning of his career.Just Win Baby said:
I think they may need to force the ball to Allen later in the year (see above). Also, Allen has had trouble staying on the field for his career. This is a contract payday year. I don't know if "career" numbers are in the cards (I would expect him to miss 2 games), but I don't see why he couldn't put up decent numbers in spots. Not trying to start a fight here.Just Win Baby said:
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Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
A Tyrod WR
No
Thank
You
No
Thank
You
Traditionally, haiku are written in the 5/7/5 format
Tyrod receiver
[Seven syllables go here]
No thank you, good sir
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Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
jm192
Footballguy
Still can't convince myself. I've been a big Allen fan since he entered the league. But Tyrod scares the hell out of me.
Rivers averaged 581 passes the last 6 seasons. The Bills averaged 465-470 a year the 3 years Tyrod was the main guy. Even going up to 480, at 25% target share, Allen's looking at...120 targets?
Even at a very nice 70% catch rate--which is roughly what he's done the last 2 years--you're looking at 84 catches. Which is great. But it's not Keenan Allen. If you can get to 12 yards a catch--you're looking at 1,000 yards. Tyrod's career high in Passing TD's is 20. So I don't think there's a ton of TD upside. Maybe Herbert comes in and saves the day? I hate relying on a rookie as well though.
I don't think I'll have any shares this year.
Rivers averaged 581 passes the last 6 seasons. The Bills averaged 465-470 a year the 3 years Tyrod was the main guy. Even going up to 480, at 25% target share, Allen's looking at...120 targets?
Even at a very nice 70% catch rate--which is roughly what he's done the last 2 years--you're looking at 84 catches. Which is great. But it's not Keenan Allen. If you can get to 12 yards a catch--you're looking at 1,000 yards. Tyrod's career high in Passing TD's is 20. So I don't think there's a ton of TD upside. Maybe Herbert comes in and saves the day? I hate relying on a rookie as well though.
I don't think I'll have any shares this year.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I was already on the fence due to his wild swings of inconsistent production.
He’d be a great weekly boom or bust WR3, IF he could stay healthy, and if he weren’t drafted as a WR1-2.
IMO Taylor could be good for Allen, since Rivers wasn’t exactly captain ball security, and Taylor might zero on Allen as a security blanket.
but it’s such a mystery & I feel like Allen will be overdrafted on name only.
Plus he single-handedly cost me a championship when he dropped a TD & left with a hip pointer & i’ve been bitter & butthurt ever since. I am big enough to admit this.
He’d be a great weekly boom or bust WR3, IF he could stay healthy, and if he weren’t drafted as a WR1-2.
IMO Taylor could be good for Allen, since Rivers wasn’t exactly captain ball security, and Taylor might zero on Allen as a security blanket.
but it’s such a mystery & I feel like Allen will be overdrafted on name only.
Plus he single-handedly cost me a championship when he dropped a TD & left with a hip pointer & i’ve been bitter & butthurt ever since. I am big enough to admit this.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I just got him in a trade in dynasty so I'm trying to figure out if I should keep him or try to trade him off to someone else. So far not a ton of positivity.
jm192
Footballguy
I think the name/history carries a lot of value. If you're bullish on Herbert, keep him. But I'd be really curious as to what people will give.
Don’t agree with the name carries value in dynasty. He is getting closer to old and has injury history and a qb downgrade. Guessing you won’t get much if any value out of him.
CalBear
Footballguy
Uh, you may have some criticisms of Allen, but inconsistent production isn't one of them. The last 7 games of the season he had at least 6 targets, 5 receptions, and 68 yards in every game. He has some games where he doesn't score a lot, like all of the second-tier WRs. That's why they're second-tier.I was already on the fence due to his wild swings of inconsistent production.
He’d be a great weekly boom or bust WR3, IF he could stay healthy, and if he weren’t drafted as a WR1-2.
IMO Taylor could be good for Allen, since Rivers wasn’t exactly captain ball security, and Taylor might zero on Allen as a security blanket.
but it’s such a mystery & I feel like Allen will be overdrafted on name only.
Plus he single-handedly cost me a championship when he dropped a TD & left with a hip pointer & i’ve been bitter & butthurt ever since. I am big enough to admit this.
Allen finished as WR11, just behind Deandre Hopkins who put up 23 yards in week 16, and just ahead of Allen Robinson who failed to break 60 yards in five of the last nine weeks of the season, and also ahead of Julian Edelman who failed to top 30 yards in two of the last three weeks.
Right now according to MFL Allen is being drafted as WR33. Thirty-three! Even in his rookie season he finished as #18; the last three years he's been #3, #14, and #11, and even better in PPR leagues. Losing Rivers might hurt but WR33 last year was Jamison Crowder (78/833/6). I'll take the over on that for Allen.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
At that price he's a gigantic steal. I personally have Allen somewhere in the 15-20 range, he's not a guy I'm targeting, but he's a guy I'll happily take. It is entirely possible that a rookie QB relies on him even more than Rivers did. Looking at Crowder's numbers from #33 last year, I'd bet the over on catches and yards for Allen, 6 TD's is probably about what I'm thinking.
I see Allen as Jarvis Landry with more upside. Ideally a WR3, if you pound WR early, but an acceptable WR2.
CalBear
Footballguy
Assertion: Allen's level of consistency has been approximately average for a WR in the WR10-15 range.My memory is longer than the last 7 games of 1 season.
Tau837
Footballguy
LOL at the notion that Taylor could be as good as or better than Rivers for Allen's production.
For purposes of this post, I will initially assume Tyrod plays the entire season.
The Chargers offense under Lynn has run 1020 plays (2017), 945 plays (2018), and 997 plays (2019). Before coming to the Chargers, Lynn was the assistant HC in 2015 and the OC in 2016 in Buffalo, with Tyrod as the starting QB in both of those seasons. The Bills ran 1016 and 1012 plays in those seasons, respectively. Ignoring the outlier 2018 season, that is an average of 1011 plays per season. So I am starting with that number.
I expect the passing/rushing split to shift more toward rushing than was the case with Rivers, but not quite as far toward rushing as those Bills teams. (I like Ekeler, but he is not Gordon or Lesean McCoy as a feature rusher.) So I will project 1011 plays, with 571 called passing plays and 440 called rushing plays.
In 2015-2016, Tyrod dropped back 997 times, was sacked 78 times (7.8%), and scrambled 103 times (10.3%). In 2017, under new HC Sean McDermott, Tyrod's sack rate was a bit higher and his scramble rate a bit lower. He is older and more mature at this point, and he will also be playing with a better group of receiving targets than he had in Buffalo, so it seems reasonable that he might scramble a bit less. On 571 dropbacks, I will predict 43 sacks (7.5%) and 48 scrambles (8.4%). That leaves 480 passing attempts.
If Allen gets 25% of the targets, that is 120 targets. But will he get that many? I doubt it. Rivers' strengths (reading defense, pre- and post-snap; throwing with anticipation; accuracy) are a really good fit with Allen, and none of those are strengths for Tyrod. I expect this means Tyrod will not attempt some of the passes that Rivers did, further reducing Allen's targets. I will assume 7 targets per game = 112 targets if he plays all 16 games.
His catch rate seems likely to come down for the same reasons mentioned above about Tyrod vs. Rivers. Throws to him will likely be less accurate. Assuming 65%, that results in 73 receptions.
His career YPR is 12.2. His career low season YPR was 10.2, his career high was 14.7, and last season, it was 11.5. Allen is typically in the top 15 WRs in YAC, but, again, that is facilitated by accurate throws that lead him away from defenders, and I expect that accuracy won't be there this season. I think 11 YPR is a generous assumption. On 73 receptions, that is 803 yards.
TDs are difficult to predict. Allen has 18 TDs on 444 targets over the past 3 seasons, which is 4% of his targets. That rate on 112 targets equates to 4.5 TDs. But Tyrod's career TD percentage is 4.0%, compared to Rivers' 5.2%. So I will go under and project 4.
So if he remains healthy and if Tyrod starts the entire season, I project Allen for 73/803/4 on 112 targets. Pretty underwhelming, and definitely not a top 20 WR.
All that said, I very seriously doubt Tyrod will start all season. I expect the Chargers to have a losing record entering the bye and expect Herbert to be starting no later than week 11 after the bye. Unfortunately for Allen, that seems more likely to reduce his production than boost it. But admittedly, Herbert is a wild card, so that is hard to say for sure.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And yet by looking at the game by game numbers you’d see wild swings of production. Which is why he has been consistently over-drafted the last several years.
Because at the end at the end of the season his line always looks solid.
It is what it is. I had him for 4 straight seasons. Never again.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Sorry, where did I say that?
weird because you quoted me. I said “good for Allen”. not “as good or better than Rivers”
that’s a straw man, and sadly undermines the rest of your well articulated post.
Tau837
Footballguy
Yes, I quoted it. If you say Taylor “could be good for Allen” because (a) (negative statement about Rivers) and (b) Taylor may target Allen heavily, it clearly implies you mean Taylor may be as good or better for Allen than Rivers was. If that isn’t what you meant, you should have written your point differently.
Because it obviously isn’t “good for Allen” if his production suffers from transitioning from Rivers to Taylor, and it sadly undermined the rest of your post.
CalBear
Footballguy
WR10-15 aren't productive every game. That's the way it works. If they were productive every game they'd be WR1-5.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
when drafting in tiers, I more often see them referred to as WR1, WR2, WR3.
Allan has been consistently drafted as a WR1, and I think he is better suited to being a WR3 due to his inconsistency.
I’d have to go back and look at his ADP, but I believe The last few years he has been drafted more in the 5-9 range than 10-15, regardless.
So as framed (10-15), I don’t disagree. I could handleAllen’s inconsistency of production if he were the 15th wide receiver off the board.
IIRC, he has typically gone higher than that, usually around the back end of the second round as the 6-9th WR off the board.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Just because you inferred something does not mean I asserted it.Yes, I quoted it. If you say Taylor “could be good for Allen” because (a) (negative statement about Rivers) and (b) Taylor may target Allen heavily, it clearly implies you mean Taylor may be as good or better for Allen than Rivers was. If that isn’t what you meant, you should have written your point differently.
Because it obviously isn’t “good for Allen” if his production suffers from transitioning from Rivers to Taylor, and it sadly undermined the rest of your post.
nothing but love for you though.
CalBear
Footballguy
- 2017: WR14 (finished WR3)
- 2018: WR7 (finished WR14)
- 2019: WR9 (finished WR11)
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yep - that jives with my recollection. Bargain in 2017 after the injury discount, then didn’t live up to his ADP until the end of last year. I had him from 2015 through 2018.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes. He worked out well for me a couple times and not well for me a couple times.
and even in his good years he’d have wild swings of production & injury scares.
last I checked I’m entitled to that opinion about Allen.
he is consistently over-drifted based on end of year numbers.
Now he’s another year older. If you want to draft him, more for you. I’ve been burned too many times, and I don’t think he’s worth his price. The only years he was he was coming off injury which deflated his ADP.
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CalBear
Footballguy
You're entitled to your opinion, of course. Generally, winning fantasy football requires more than opinions, so if you were to participate in an off-season discussion of a potentially useful player, you might want to contribute some analysis or statistics.
There is zero evidence that Allen's end-of-year statistics are the result of wild swings in production. Let's define a bad game as one where he got less than 50 yards and no TDs. He wound up with:
- 2015: 1 bad game (8 total games)
- 2016: 0 (1 total game)
- 2017: 3 (16 total games)
- 2018: 2 (16 total games)
- 2019: 3 (16 total games)
Tau837
Footballguy
You wrote this as present tense, but it would be more appropriate as past tense. Unless you are adjusting his tier down with Tyrod and the new Chargers offense.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s fair. I agree he’s not a WR1. Unfortunately that’s been his draft price all but one of the last 4-5 years.
so, more for you. I can’t see another year of miles on that chassis & what looks like a downgrade at QB being good for his projections going forward.
But if ya like him, by all means draft him. More for you.
and maybe you’re right - my dad & brother are both Cal alumni, and they’re pretty smart, so who knows.
CalBear
Footballguy
I'm not sure what to expect going forward. Just saying that avoiding Allen because of an imagined history of inconsistency is not supported by the available evidence.
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CalBear
Footballguy
Go Bears!my dad & brother are both Cal alumni, and they’re pretty smart, so who knows.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
its time to move him, but you won't get much.
i'm holding and hoping the kid gives him a load of targets early so I can send out offers
i'm holding and hoping the kid gives him a load of targets early so I can send out offers
Tau837
Footballguy
He will probably have a career low in targets per game this season. On top of that, the quality of his targets will be worse.oswizzle said:Last year of his contract and He wants to get paid.... Sleep on him this year and you will regret it big time... Im not just saying this because I know him
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