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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Amari Cooper, Cowboys

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4 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Some people let dynasty rankings cloud their redraft 

 

However would it surprise anyone if cooper was talked about as a top 5 wr pick in 2017? After a dominate 2016 season? Nope

Yes, it would surprise me quite a bit. 

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It wouldn't surprise me if any of those guys were top 5 picks next year.  Thomas has already been top 5, Cobb has already flirted with it, cooks is still improving and had a better year than cooper last year, and so on.  But yes, it would surprise me if cooper was a top 5 pick next year.  That would be a nearly unprecedented year one to year two leap, not something you should expect.  Thats why his value is all wrong right now.  

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

Yes, it would surprise me quite a bit. 

It wouldn't surprise me one bit.  Cooper checks all the boxes for me.  Talent, athleticism, speed, routes, work ethic, character etc.   His QB is talented and on the rise as well.  I don't blame guys for not drafting ahead of guys like Hilton this year in redraft.  You are taking a bit of a gamble that he improves off last years numbers pretty dramatically if you do that.  

But I wouldn't be at all surprised if he blew up this year and was top 5 redraft next year.

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1 minute ago, jmo87usc said:

It wouldn't surprise me one bit.  Cooper checks all the boxes for me.  Talent, athleticism, speed, routes, work ethic, character etc.   His QB is talented and on the rise as well.  I don't blame guys for not drafting ahead of guys like Hilton this year in redraft.  You are taking a bit of a gamble that he improves off last years numbers pretty dramatically if you do that.  

But I wouldn't be at all surprised if he blew up this year and was top 5 redraft next year.

They are going to need to start throwing him the ball in the RZ for him to the the TD upside IMO. 

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Just now, Ilov80s said:

They are going to need to start throwing him the ball in the RZ for him to the the TD upside IMO. 

You are acting like that isnt fixable by play calling. 

I

Ill take him over hilton and demaryious. Cooks is close 

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Just now, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

You are acting like that isnt fixable by play calling. 

I

Ill take him over hilton and demaryious. Cooks is close 

Current top 5 WRs being drafted averaged 113 catches, 1600 yards and 10.5 TDs last year. I do not see that kind of year for Cooper. I could be wrong, but it would really surprise me if he had a season to that level. 

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So who ahead of him?  

Brown

Odb

Aj green

Dez

Hopkins 

Marshall

?

I Def put him in front of jeffery, nelson, allen robinson.  Cooks and Evans are close.

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1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

He had 72 catches for 1070 yards and 6 tds last year.  Granted, he was a rookie, but he got fed 130 targets so it's not like he was getting treated with kid gloves.  He has upside for sure, but he's coming off the board in the second round in redraft leagues on potential ahead of guys who have already been more productive.  Cooks is still emerging and had over 1100 yards and 9 tds last year, and hes going after cooper.  Demaryius thomas might regress, but it would have to be a lot for him to fall past 1070/6.  He's going several picks later.  Randall cobb has a stud year under his belt and both he and jordy are healthy.  Is there really a round difference between their situations?  

Can we unpack this Cooper/Cooks comparison here.

You lament Cooper for having only 1070 yards, but praise Cooks for having a whopping 1138 yards.  You assume Cooks is still emerging entering his 3rd year, but pencil in Cooper to repeat his rookie season without any improvement at all.

People aren't drafting Cooper because they're hoping for 1070/6.  I'm not saying I would take Cooper ahead of all those guys but Cooks is an odd comparison seeing as he was barely better than Cooper last year despite Cooper being a rookie, and New Orleans has now added two players to steal targets from him.

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I see Cooks and Cooper as very similar players in terms of what they could do this year. The difference is Cooks has done it before and has a much better offense. 

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Way too high for me. I have him with a 4th rounds grade right after Hilton and Cobb. His ADP has him at the 2nd/3rd turn. Now it isn't completely terrible as Cooper is my 32nd overall player and he is the 24th player going off the board, but that early in drafts 8 spots is still pretty big. Here are my thoughts on Cooper:

Amari Cooper: He is a talented player so I understand why people are excited, but Cooper just hasn't done anything special enough in the league to draft over players with the more proven track records like Cooks, DT, Hilton, etc. His price tag is the best case scenario for a guy that was WR23 in total points and WR31 in ppg last year. He wasn't even the best fantasy WR on his team. He was the 3rd most targeted RZ wide receiver on the Raiders. He had 0 targets inside the 10. That makes me question what his TD potential is.

For Cooper to live up to his WR11 price tag, you are going to need to a 33% improvement in fantasy production from 2015. The good news it that there is a lot he can improve on to get better numbers. He had more drops than Mike Evans in 2015. A lot of the advanced stats I have seen weren't too kind to Cooper (Catch rate &, DVOA, DYAR). Now the play of the QB certainly could have been a cause for some of those poor numbers, but that same QB will be throwing him the ball in 2015. I just don't see the argument for Cooper going so high other than he's really talented and he is sure to improve. As we know from years of fantasy, talented players don't always make for fantasy stars and players don't always improve. I will say another poster showed me that the recent list of WRs gaining over 800 or 900 yards as a rookie is very promising for Cooper. Most of them turned into very good fantasy WRs and most of them improved a good amount the next year. I think there is good chance Cooper has a Cooks/Hilton like season, but why not just take Cooks or Hilton? 

A 33% improvement is not exactly uncommon for rookies going in to their 2nd year.  Heck, Allen Robinson had like a 700% improvement last year.  DeAndre Hopkins went up by 50% in his 2nd year.  Brandin Cooks 100%.  Jarvis Landry 40%.  Allen Hurns 80%.  And on and on.

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31 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I see Cooks and Cooper as very similar players in terms of what they could do this year. The difference is Cooks has done it before and has a much better offense. 

Done what before?

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39 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

A 33% improvement is not exactly uncommon for rookies going in to their 2nd year.  Heck, Allen Robinson had like a 700% improvement last year.  DeAndre Hopkins went up by 50% in his 2nd year.  Brandin Cooks 100%.  Jarvis Landry 40%.  Allen Hurns 80%.  And on and on.

It is very possible he improves by 33%. The 33% is standard fantasy points per game. Cooks improved 23%.. Robinson improved 109%, Hurns improved 65%. Landry improved 61%. Hopkins improved 70%. Matthews went up 7%. Mike Evans decreased. Keenan Allen decreased. I think Cooper improves in year 2. I don't think last year was his ceiling at all. I just think people are drafting him for what he might do in 2016 when they could get guys that have already been doing it. 

Edited by Ilov80s

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3 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Yeah its like 80s thinks cooper hit his ceiling already

If I thought he hit his ceiling I would have him as an 8th or 9th round pick, not a 4th round pick. 

Edited by Ilov80s

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5 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

It is very possible he improves by 33%. The 33% is standard fantasy points per game. Cooks improved 23%.. Robinson improved 109%, Hurns improved 65%. Landry improved 61%. Hopkins improved 70%. Matthews went up 7%. Mike Evans decreased. Keenan Allen decreased. I think Cooper improves in year 2. I don't think last year was his ceiling at all. I just think people are drafting him for what he might do in 2016 when they get guys that have already been doing it. 

I actually agree with this, going a tad high...but I love his floor.

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29 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

I actually agree with this, going a tad high...but I love his floor.

I understand the thought, however rarely do we see the same top 10 list every year. Figuring out who is going up and who is going down is the difficult part of this hobby. I think Coopers arrow is pointing up. Oakland seems to be heading the right direction and after a solid year from both young buds Carr/Cooper I would not be surprised with improvement on both ends.

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2 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

I understand the thought, however rarely do we see the same top 10 list every year. Figuring out who is going up and who is going down is the difficult part of this hobby. I think Coopers arrow is pointing up. Oakland seems to be heading the right direction and after a solid year from both young buds Carr/Cooper I would not be surprised with improvement on both ends.

Well his ADP is right around Marshall's, who had 1500 yards and 109 receptions last year...ADP seems a bit high.

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3 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Agreed, would take Marshall over Cooper.

Most people would, and most people have a big gap there...which is why Cooper may be overvalued at his current ADP.

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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Can we unpack this Cooper/Cooks comparison here.

You lament Cooper for having only 1070 yards, but praise Cooks for having a whopping 1138 yards.  You assume Cooks is still emerging entering his 3rd year, but pencil in Cooper to repeat his rookie season without any improvement at all.

 

No, I don't. I expect him to improve.  I don't know how much.

Cooks had 68 more yards and 3 more tds and is an ascending player.  Cooper is also an ascending player.  They are both good.  But why would the consensus be to take a guy ascending from 1000/6 over a guy ascending from 1100/9?  Bear in mind that I'm not even that high on Cooks - i just think cooper is getting taken too high.  

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50 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Well his ADP is right around Marshall's, who had 1500 yards and 109 receptions last year...ADP seems a bit high.

Marshall's ADP will adjust now that Fitz has re-signed. Come draft day it will be easily ahead of Cooper's. 

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18 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

No, I don't. I expect him to improve.  I don't know how much.

Cooks had 68 more yards and 3 more tds and is an ascending player.  Cooper is also an ascending player.  They are both good.  But why would the consensus be to take a guy ascending from 1000/6 over a guy ascending from 1100/9?  Bear in mind that I'm not even that high on Cooks - i just think cooper is getting taken too high.  

Cooks' upside seems like it may plateau...eye test tells me 2015 is close to Cook's ceiling.  His advanced metrics weren't great and he's not exactly a great redzone threat.

Edited by TripItUp

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Coopers is a great young talent on an up and coming offence but I can get similar production 4 rounds later.

Cooper - Going into his 2nd year in an up and coming offence in a 1A/1B situation.  Went 72/1070/6 last year.  ADP 23 overall

Player A - Going into his 3rd year in an up and coming offence in a 1A/1B situation.  Went 64/1030/10 last year.  ADP 67 overall

Player B - Going into his 3rd year in a solid offence.  Went 65/1003/7 in 15 games last year.  ADP 73 overall.

 

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2 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

If I thought he his his ceiling I would have him as an 8th or 9th round pick, not a 4th round pick. 

Seriously?

DeSean Jackson, Markus Wheaton, Stefon Diggs, and Torrey Smith currently have ADPs in the 8th/9th round.  You think that Cooper belongs alongside them?

The beginning of the 9th round is WR40.  Cooper was WR21 last year as a rookie.  You're expecting him to regress, substantially?

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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Seriously?

DeSean Jackson, Markus Wheaton, Stefon Diggs, and Torrey Smith currently have ADPs in the 8th/9th round.  You think that Cooper belongs alongside them?

The beginning of the 9th round is WR40.  Cooper was WR21 last year as a rookie.  You're expecting him to regress, substantially?

You missed the part where the person said I was acting like last year was  Cooper's ceiling. I don't. I have Cooper as a 4th round pick.

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38 minutes ago, abbottjamesr said:

Coopers is a great young talent on an up and coming offence but I can get similar production 4 rounds later.

Cooper - Going into his 2nd year in an up and coming offence in a 1A/1B situation.  Went 72/1070/6 last year.  ADP 23 overall

Player A - Going into his 3rd year in an up and coming offence in a 1A/1B situation.  Went 64/1030/10 last year.  ADP 67 overall

Player B - Going into his 3rd year in a solid offence.  Went 65/1003/7 in 15 games last year.  ADP 73 overall.

Player A - Bortles will not throw nearly as many TDs this year, that offense (it's spelled with an S) will be much more balanced, hence the addition of Ivory.  Hurns won't match his yards or his TDs from last year.

Player B - How did Brown do once Floyd was back and healthy (roughly week 7)?  Topped 80 yards twice in 8 games.

If you do want to use those two as your comparables, though, each of them upped their yardages by around 300 yards from year 1 to year 2, with ~15 more receptions and 2-4 more TDs.  Would put Cooper at ~87 receptions, ~1,400 yards, and 9 TDs. 

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1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

No, I don't. I expect him to improve.  I don't know how much.

Cooks had 68 more yards and 3 more tds and is an ascending player.  Cooper is also an ascending player.  They are both good.  But why would the consensus be to take a guy ascending from 1000/6 over a guy ascending from 1100/9?  Bear in mind that I'm not even that high on Cooks - i just think cooper is getting taken too high.  

"Ascending player" is a blanket statement that doesn't really cover the whole deal.  Cook's 2015 was solid but not spectacular amidst the history of 2nd year receivers.  Cooper's 2015 was spectacular amidst the history of rookie receivers.

More and more, receivers are breaking out by the end of their second year.  It's very possible that we've seen Cooks' best.  I think most would agree we have not seen Cooper's.  I'm not sure that history can provide us with an example of a WR that was drafted in the top 10 and put up 1000 yards as a rookie and then went on to be anything less than great.  Cooks has no such historical company. 

If I told you I was from the future and I knew that one of Cooks/Cooper would never exceed their 2015 totals, who would you guess it was?  I think a poll would overwhelmingly reveal that people believe it to be Cooks who has already had his best season.

In most people's opinion Cooper likely has a higher ceiling, is more likely to reach that ceiling, has a higher floor, and is less likely to sit at that floor.  None of that is even accounting for the difference in pedigree or the changes to the team, whereby Cooper's situation has remained relatively constant and if anything improved (he will likely overtake more targets from Crabtree over time) while Cooks' has arguably gotten worse with more mouths to feed in town.

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50 minutes ago, abbottjamesr said:

Coopers is a great young talent on an up and coming offence but I can get similar production 4 rounds later.

Cooper - Going into his 2nd year in an up and coming offence in a 1A/1B situation.  Went 72/1070/6 last year.  ADP 23 overall

Player A - Going into his 3rd year in an up and coming offence in a 1A/1B situation.  Went 64/1030/10 last year.  ADP 67 overall

Player B - Going into his 3rd year in a solid offence.  Went 65/1003/7 in 15 games last year.  ADP 73 overall.

 

I don't get the ambiguity here.  Does naming those players detract from your point?  I don't think anyone is arguing whether you can find similar production in later rounds.  I'd be more impressed if you can guarantee me exactly who those later round players will be this year.

Cooper provides a high floor with top 5 upside.  Whether or not it's worth drafting a guy with top 5 upside over a guy with a history of top production is the debate.  I think he has a good shot, but is it worth taking him over a guy who has already done it consistently?  Much like pot odds in poker, I'm not sure how much their is to gain on the gamble.  I might go safe early rounds, then gamble on someone else later.

 

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Just now, matttyl said:

Player A - Bortles will not throw nearly as many TDs this year, that offense (it's spelled with an S) will be much more balanced, hence the addition of Ivory.  Hurns won't match his yards or his TDs from last year.

Player B - How did Brown do once Floyd was back and healthy (roughly week 7)?  Topped 80 yards twice in 8 games.

If you do want to use those two as your comparables, though, each of them upped their yardages by around 300 yards from year 1 to year 2, with ~15 more receptions and 2-4 more TDs.  Would put Cooper at ~87 receptions, ~1,400 yards, and 9 TDs. 

I'll believe the Jags are better when I see it.  Every one wants to run more but it goes out the window when you get down by 10 early.  Hurns is massively under rated IMO and will continue to improve his third year.  He was battling a sports hernia last year as well.  The guy is a beast.

The Cardinals run a bunch of 3 wr sets.  Both Brown and Floyd will both have good days.  Browns end of season stats are low because he was "active for week 10" but didn't play a snap as he had an injury and he missed week 8 with the same injury.  For Weeks 7-16 that he played he averaged 11 PPG non-ppr, 66 yards/.7tds per game.  Also, I believe he is still on the up trend as well and is the best talent at WR on the team.  

I do think Cooper progresses as well, but he is capped in my mind because he is used as in a 1A/1B split.  I am projecting 83/1231/8 for cooper next year.  I think he has a solid floor and perhaps a ceiling approaching 1400 yards and 10 tds.  He would be a solid pick in the fourth round in non-ppr. 

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1 hour ago, abbottjamesr said:

Coopers is a great young talent on an up and coming offence but I can get similar production 4 rounds later.

Cooper - Going into his 2nd year in an up and coming offence in a 1A/1B situation.  Went 72/1070/6 last year.  ADP 23 overall

Player A - Going into his 3rd year in an up and coming offence in a 1A/1B situation.  Went 64/1030/10 last year.  ADP 67 overall

Player B - Going into his 3rd year in a solid offence.  Went 65/1003/7 in 15 games last year.  ADP 73 overall.

 

I'm assuming Player A is Hurns.  In that case, I should be totally on your side because if you go into the Hurns' threads on this board you will find no bigger advocate of him than me.

That said, their situations are far from comparable.  Especially the designation of both being 1A/1B is poor.  Cooper was pretty clearly a 1B (16 fewer targets than Crabtree) behind a middling veteran WR that he will likely overtake as 1A and maybe even a true #1 sometime this season or next.  Hurns was pretty clearly a #2 (50 fewer targets than Robinson) behind a young talented WR that he will likely remain as the clear #2 behind for as long as both are in Jacksonville.

Beyond that, as I mentioned above, there is a BIG difference between coming off of X fantasy points as a rookie and coming off of roughly the same number of fantasy points as a 2nd year player.  In the modern NFL, that is where the big jump occurs.  Guys like Hurns and Cooks may have already had theirs.  Cooper probably not.

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I'm very bullish that Cooper is going to break out in a big way this coming season.  He did have his share of drops, but overall if you look at the tape, I think (just my opinion from what I see) that a lot of his future growth is going to come with improved chemistry between he and Carr.  Whether you want to blame Carr or Cooper, they just weren't in sync some of the time and some of the catchable passes were really mistimed or came at odd angles.  They clean that up and factor in what many believe is going to be a much improved O-line, and I think the upside relative to his going ADP is worth reaching for Coop. 

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3 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

Jesus, the disrespect of Cooper in here is appalling.  

4th rnd grade? Ooooof. Save me, jesus!! 

To be clear, I have him as my 32nd overall player. I have 8 players with a 1st round grade, 12 players with a 2nd round grade, 9 players with a 3rd round grade. I have Cooper 8 spots off from his ADP. IMO though that early in the draft, 8 spots is a significant difference though. Cooper is the 3rd player in my round 4 grouping just behind TY and Cobb, just ahead of Reed and Aaron Rodgers. 

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6 hours ago, need2know said:

So who ahead of him?  

Brown

Odb

Aj green

Dez

Hopkins 

Marshall

?

I Def put him in front of jeffery, nelson, allen robinson.  Cooks and Evans are close.

we got room in our league. :)

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Jeffery/Nelson/Robinson/Evans all have more upside than Cooper...you can make the case Cooper has the highest floor, but floor is your only argument here.

Just depends on type of league and roster construction.

Edited by TripItUp
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3 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

if I told you I was from the future and I knew that one of Cooks/Cooper would never exceed their 2015 totals, who would you guess it was?  I think a poll would overwhelmingly reveal that people believe it to be Cooks who has already had his best season.

 

This is a redraft conversation, not dynasty, so "never exceed' is the wrong bar to use.  Will cooper exceed his excellent rookie numbers this year?

Probably, yes.  

Then again, i think the consensus was that mike evans would improve in year two.  There are lots of reasons why players can have sophomore slumps, or keep their previous year's production.  They get lazy and buy into their own hype.  They don't have to compete for a job or for playing time.  They had their first real offseason as a millionaire.  The team has a better running game.  The emergence of secondary receivers.  Changes in how teams cover them.  Team success leading to less garbage time.  One or two fewer long passes caught.  Teams holding or risking pass interference to keep from getting beat.  Teams taking them more seriously now that they're potential contenders.  A qb taking shots downfield.  

It's easy to assume he's going to get better, and i agree that he's a very good and improving player, but there's a reasonable chance his numbers don't improve, or don't improve much.  It happens all the time. Mike williams.  Michael clayton.  Josh Gordon. Cooper might be better than all those guys, but all those guys looked like elite studs until they didn't.  

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10 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

This is a redraft conversation, not dynasty, so "never exceed' is the wrong bar to use.  Will cooper exceed his excellent rookie numbers this year?

Probably, yes.  

Then again, i think the consensus was that mike evans would improve in year two.  There are lots of reasons why players can have sophomore slumps, or keep their previous year's production.  They get lazy and buy into their own hype.  They don't have to compete for a job or for playing time.  They had their first real offseason as a millionaire.  The team has a better running game.  The emergence of secondary receivers.  Changes in how teams cover them.  Team success leading to less garbage time.  One or two fewer long passes caught.  Teams holding or risking pass interference to keep from getting beat.  Teams taking them more seriously now that they're potential contenders.  A qb taking shots downfield.  

It's easy to assume he's going to get better, and i agree that he's a very good and improving player, but there's a reasonable chance his numbers don't improve, or don't improve much.  It happens all the time. Mike williams.  Michael clayton.  Josh Gordon. Cooper might be better than all those guys, but all those guys looked like elite studs until they didn't.  

Obviously there are no guarantees, else Cooper would be going even higher than he is.  Brandin Cooks is susceptible to all those same pitfalls, and more.

Point being that most people feel Cooper is more likely to improve on his numbers by a significant amount than Cooks is, which is why some people have him ranked ahead of Cooks despite Cooks scoring slightly fewer points last year.  It's not like it's some kind of foreign concept to either of us.  The same thing is repeated across dozens of other player comparisons all up and down the rankings list.

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

Jeffery/Nelson/Robinson/Evans all have more upside than Cooper...you can make the case Cooper has the highest floor, but floor is your only argument here.

Just depends on type of league and roster construction.

Not sure how you can say this at all. Granted these are players in the same tier. But jeffery is banged up and i think coopers situation is better. Jordy is coming off an acl and hurt himself again. Evans was very disappointing last year. And there is a good chance that the jax offense is not as potent.

 

All comes down to who you like better. I dont think floor is the only arguement. Cooper could out perform all of those guys. Half of them or none of them. 

 

Predicting the future isnt it grand???

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6 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Obviously there are no guarantees, else Cooper would be going even higher than he is.  Brandin Cooks is susceptible to all those same pitfalls, and more.

Point being that most people feel Cooper is more likely to improve on his numbers by a significant amount than Cooks is, which is why some people have him ranked ahead of Cooks despite Cooks scoring slightly fewer points last year.  It's not like it's some kind of foreign concept to either of us.  The same thing is repeated across dozens of other player comparisons all up and down the rankings list.

Maybe I am confused. Cooks scoring slightly fewer points than what? Cooper? Cooks pretty significantly outscored Cooper last year. 

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I think part of the reason players such as Cooper get drafted as high as they do is a combination of their skill set but also their work ethic. Cooper is the whole package, that is why he was drafted 4th overall in 2015.

He had an outstanding season for a rookie. I did a search for rookie WR seasons with greater than 600 yards from 1989 to present. Amari Cooper is 6th overall on this list.

Cooper did not lead the Raiders in targets, Crabtree did. That might change this season, so it is possible that his opportunity increases in 2016.

From everything I have read Cooper and Carr have been working together and building chemistry.

The Raiders have an easier schedule this season than they had last year. The play the AFC and NFC South this year.

Derek Carr made significant progress in only his second season. He improved in completion percentage yards per attempt and touchdown rate. Carr has not had 600 passing attempts in a season yet but has come close. I think he may cross that threshold this season (providing more opportunity for receivers).

Carr was sacked more times last year than as a rookie. The Raiders offensive line has improved. They may be one of the better lines in the league right now, so potential is there for Carr to reduce his sack percentage.

The Raiders had 1009 total offensive plays last season. They gave up 1085 plays last year. I think the defense will be improved and the Raiders may have more offensive plays as a result. 1030 plays was the average last season.

Cooper going into his second season has a lot of different things working in his favor that should lead to him putting up better numbers in year two.

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13 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Not sure how you can say this at all. Granted these are players in the same tier. But jeffery is banged up and i think coopers situation is better. Jordy is coming off an acl and hurt himself again.

Coming off Injury doesn't mean you don't have more upside.  Both Alshon and Jordy have had seasons far better than Amari's rookie season, if anything that's proven superior upside.

Edited by TripItUp

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8 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Maybe I am confused. Cooks scoring slightly fewer points than what? Cooper? Cooks pretty significantly outscored Cooper last year. 

Meant to type "more".

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7 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

if anything that's proven superior upside.

Not really but if you think so. Compare all their rookie seasons. Look at coopers draft pedigree. I think his "upside" might be higher. 

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2 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Not really but if you think so. Compare all their rookie seasons. Look at coopers draft pedigree. I think his "upside" might be higher. 

This is the hype talking.

Do you think cooper can put up more than 96 catches for 1450 yards and 13 touchdowns this year?  Because those are odell beckham jrs numbers from his sophomore campaign.  Do you really think he has more upside than obj did last year?  The guy with unprecedented production through his first two years?

Because jordy actually does.  The last time jordy was on the field, he had 98 catches for 1519 yards and 13 tds.  That's 2 more catches and 69 yards more than the season that made obj the consensus number two pick this year.

Cooper has one season of 72/1070/6.  He could get 20 more receptions, 500 more yards, and double his td production and still not do better than jordy did last time he played.  

Cooper might wind up doing better than jordy, but he objectively doesn't have more redraft upside than jordy.   

 

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46 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

This is the hype talking.

Do you think cooper can put up more than 96 catches for 1450 yards and 13 touchdowns this year?  Because those are odell beckham jrs numbers from his sophomore campaign.  Do you really think he has more upside than obj did last year?  The guy with unprecedented production through his first two years?

Because jordy actually does.  The last time jordy was on the field, he had 98 catches for 1519 yards and 13 tds.  That's 2 more catches and 69 yards more than the season that made obj the consensus number two pick this year.

Cooper has one season of 72/1070/6.  He could get 20 more receptions, 500 more yards, and double his td production and still not do better than jordy did last time he played.  

Cooper might wind up doing better than jordy, but he objectively doesn't have more redraft upside than jordy.   

 

Agree that Cooper has too much hype but I'll still take him before Jordy in redraft because of the injuries and time that has past since Jordy put up those huge numbers.  A big part of Nelson's success has been the deep ball and that might no longer be there.

Give me the younger, healthier player please.

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

Coming off Injury doesn't mean you don't have more upside.  Both Alshon and Jordy have had seasons far better than Amari's rookie season, if anything that's proven superior upside.

I actually agree with you here--but I'm just wondering how you factor the dynamic of injuries in general.  Seems to me that I generally tend to alter a players floor and not ceiling due to injury--and was wondering your thoughts on that.  I would personally say that Jordy has higher upside than Cooper just because of history alone--but I also feel like Jordys floor is much lower because of his injury and the potential to re-aggravate that injury.  I just wonder if I'm possibly being too one sided by directly coorelating injuries with players floors and not upside.  

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2 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

I actually agree with you here--but I'm just wondering how you factor the dynamic of injuries in general.  Seems to me that I generally tend to alter a players floor and not ceiling due to injury--and was wondering your thoughts on that.  I would personally say that Jordy has higher upside than Cooper just because of history alone--but I also feel like Jordys floor is much lower because of his injury and the potential to re-aggravate that injury.  I just wonder if I'm possibly being too one sided by directly coorelating injuries with players floors and not upside.  

Problem with floors (the worst possible outcome) and ceilings (the best) is that neither is the most likely, or expected outcome.

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