Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
gianmarco

***Official Melvin "Flash" Gordon*** Thread of Love

Recommended Posts

Almost every time a quality player is traded there will be a point right before the trade where they say a trade isn't likely to happen.  The Chargers are going to try to maximize compensation and any trade partner is going to want to minimize compensation.  My guess is the Chargers are actually seeking a 2nd round pick but they might have to let him go for a 3rd.  A team might even give up a 3rd round pick for a one-year rental since they will have the ability to recoup a 3rd round compensation pick next year.  Melvin won't like playing without a new contract but he doesn't have many options.  And $5.6 million ain't small change.  Maybe Melvin will get a guarantee that he won't be franchise tagged next year if he plays.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don’t see how a trade can work. If there’s no trade, the Chargers will get half a season out of Gordon plus a compensatory third. To beat that, a team will have to offer at least a second. The problem is that the right to pay a player what he’s worth on the open market (which is what Gordon is demanding) is not worth a draft pick at all — certainly not a second.

Gordon might report in Week 2 or 3. Or he might sit tight until week 9. Either way, as a fantasy RB in redraft leagues, he’s certainly worth more than Kareem Hunt.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎9‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 6:37 AM, TheWinz said:

I haven't done an in-person live draft with friends since 2008, and I miss it.  Honestly the best day of the entire FF season.  We had one owner bring a podium and microphone, and the draft was held in an owner's house.  Food, beer, laptops all over the place, and fake printed cheatsheets.  The one token guy who gets hammered too early and starts reaching, and the guy who still owned a childhood toy called Stretch Armstrong pulling his arms every other pick.  And the best part - no website malfunction causing a team to autodraft.  Those were the days.

Now back to Gordon.  Draft Ekeler.

You spelled Jackson wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

Almost every time a quality player is traded there will be a point right before the trade where they say a trade isn't likely to happen.  The Chargers are going to try to maximize compensation and any trade partner is going to want to minimize compensation.  My guess is the Chargers are actually seeking a 2nd round pick but they might have to let him go for a 3rd.  A team might even give up a 3rd round pick for a one-year rental since they will have the ability to recoup a 3rd round compensation pick next year.  Melvin won't like playing without a new contract but he doesn't have many options.  And $5.6 million ain't small change.  Maybe Melvin will get a guarantee that he won't be franchise tagged next year if he plays.

Why?  They'll get a third, and half a season of Gordon, if they don't trade him.  They'd need to get at least a 2nd, and I'm not sure why they'd even do that, unless it's from a team who's 2nd is likely in the top half of the round (like Tampa Bay). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

I don’t see how a trade can work. If there’s no trade, the Chargers will get half a season out of Gordon plus a compensatory third. To beat that, a team will have to offer at least a second. The problem is that the right to pay a player what he’s worth on the open market (which is what Gordon is demanding) is not worth a draft pick at all — certainly not a second.

Gordon might report in Week 2 or 3. Or he might sit tight until week 9. Either way, as a fantasy RB in redraft leagues, he’s certainly worth more than Kareem Hunt.

The compensatory pick would be "after" or rather at the end of the third - roughly pick 100.  Tampa Bay's 3rd (who Vegas has 6.5 as the over/under on wins, and who only won 5 last year) could be drafting around pick 70 with their third.  Their third plus a 5th or 6th could get this done.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, huskynation said:

You spelled Jackson wrong.

It never ceases to amaze me the amount of credit Jackson gets for outplaying Ekeler in 1 game all season. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, matttyl said:

The compensatory pick would be "after" or rather at the end of the third - roughly pick 100.  Tampa Bay's 3rd (who Vegas has 6.5 as the over/under on wins, and who only won 5 last year) could be drafting around pick 70 with their third.  Their third plus a 5th or 6th could get this done.

The compensatory pick would also come a year later than a pick they could trade for. I don't think the sum of those considerations (almost a round earlier and a year earlier) is greater than the value of a half-season of Gordon at $330,000 per game.

If another pick is added, it could make sense for the Chargers. But I don't think it would make sense for their trade partner.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, matttyl said:

The compensatory pick would be "after" or rather at the end of the third - roughly pick 100.  Tampa Bay's 3rd (who Vegas has 6.5 as the over/under on wins, and who only won 5 last year) could be drafting around pick 70 with their third.  Their third plus a 5th or 6th could get this done.

You are on the right track here. A compensatory pick would be awarded to LAC  if and only if the Chargers don't sign a similar free agent at a similar average contract value next off season. There is no guarantee the Chargers would receive a compensatory pick at all. As you indicated, the best possible compensatory pick would be the 97th pick . . . and it's somewhat unlikely the highest paid free agent signing would be a RB. 

Using this off season as a guide, let's say Gordon signed a contract as a free agent next off season worth $11 million per year. Based on other free agent signings this year, the projected 2020 compensatory pick for a player with an AAV of $11 million would be at the top level of 4th round compensatory picks (which as already discussed is essentially the top of the 5th round). If Gordon signed for a little more than that, it's very possible his contract could garner only a 4th round compensatory pick.

The other thing being lost here is that the compensatory draft pick would be for the 2021 draft. Historically, the rule of thumb used by teams is that a pick in future seasons (since it is so far in the future) is devalued by a round for each season out. So a top of the 5th pick in terms of trade currency is viewed as a 6th round pick in current imaginary trade dollars. Bottom line, the adjusted value right now of a compensatory pick for Gordon two drafts from now would be best case an early 4th devalued to a 5th or an early 5th devalued to an early 6th.

Next up, the team acquiring Gordon today could be doing so potentially acquiring him initially as a one year rental (or less depending upon if he misses games this season). So there is risk there. If that team agrees to giving him a huge pay increase, then the team would be giving up players and / or picks in addition to having to the huge salary and cap hit they would be taking on with a new deal.

Put another way, if I am the team interested in acquiring Gordon, my trade argument would be that I could draft a younger, much cheaper running back in next year's draft who is 4 years younger who doesn't already have 1,100+ touches already.

So the rumor of the Chargers wanting a 1st and a 5th, to me, is laughable. Given all the factors at play here, I would be surprised if a team would give up more than a third round pick for Gordon. Duke Johnson recently went to HOU for a 4th round pick that could turn into a 3rd if he is active for 10 games (which is likely). He is signed for 3 more years and only carries a $2.2 million cap hit this season. The Chargers are pretty much stuck here, as they so far have not been able to get Gordon to report and teams will low ball them in a potential trade offer . . . especially if only one team is willing to make a trade.

Edited by Anarchy99
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Per Albert Breer

"Did a little digging around on the Melvin Gordon trade market. To give you an idea of where it is, only offer I came across was from Philly. In that deal, Jordan Howard would go to LA, the teams would swap mid-round picks, and the Chargers would eat salary. LA obviously said no.There just hasn’t been much action on Gordon. And that’s not bc he can’t play. It’s bc there aren’t teams willing to fork over draft capital and the kind of $$$ Gordon wants. You could deal for him as a 1-year rental. But (as the Philly offer shows) that lessens his trade value."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, Philly as at least somewhat interested.  Had that happened, and he signed long term, as a Redskins fan we'd be facing three of the best RBs in the league in our own division for the foreseeable future. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, zeeshan2 said:

That would have ####ed up Sander's long term value so much

I doubt the Eagles were looking at Gordon as anything more than a 1-year rental. They are making a SB run this year, Gordon is better than Howard, and Howie Roseman loves to game the system to get compensatory picks. The long-term plans for Sanders wouldn’t have changed at all.

Edited by Pip's Invitation

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a Melvin owner, I would welcome him going to the Eagles as a one-year rental.  He would be playing behind a great offensive line on a team that is going to score a lot.  And he would be playing his heart out to get his mega contract.  Hopefully, the Eagles would ditch their rbbc philosophy and run him into the ground knowing that he wouldn't be back next year.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

As a Melvin owner, I would welcome him going to the Eagles as a one-year rental.  He would be playing behind a great offensive line on a team that is going to score a lot.  And he would be playing his heart out to get his mega contract.  Hopefully, the Eagles would ditch their rbbc philosophy and run him into the ground knowing that he wouldn't be back next year.  

 

That trade is not happening - LA is not going to eat Gordon's salary while taking on the additional salary of a mediocre RB just for a mid-round pick swap.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

That trade is not happening - LA is not going to eat Gordon's salary while taking on the additional salary of a mediocre RB just for a mid-round pick swap.

The trade as reported isn't going to happen. That doesn't mean a trade with more reasonable terms isn't going to happen.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

The trade as reported isn't going to happen. That doesn't mean a trade with more reasonable terms isn't going to happen.

I posted in other threads that the acquiring team:

- needs a RB

- has the salary cap room to sign him

- is willing to part with picks or players

- has draft picks available and / or players the Chargers would want back. 

Looking at the rosters and salary cap situations for the other 31 teams, there aren’t many potential suitors out there. The options grow some if that mystery team were to send a RB back to the Chargers, but I don’t think that is very likely. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

I posted in other threads that the acquiring team:

- needs a RB

- has the salary cap room to sign him

- is willing to part with picks or players

- has draft picks available and / or players the Chargers would want back. 

Looking at the rosters and salary cap situations for the other 31 teams, there aren’t many potential suitors out there. The options grow some if that mystery team were to send a RB back to the Chargers, but I don’t think that is very likely. 

Melvin is due $5.6 million.  22 teams have that much in cap space.  The league average is $14 million in cap space.  And any team can redo contracts to make it work if they really want him.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Albert Breer✔@AlbertBreer

Did a little digging around on the Melvin Gordon trade market. To give you an idea of where it is, only offer I came across was from Philly.

In that deal, Jordan Howard would go to LA, the teams would swap mid-round picks, and the Chargers would eat salary. LA obviously said no.

1,313

12:24 PM - Sep 4, 2019

:lmao: 

Edited by Just Win Baby
  • Laughing 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking around the league as to who might have interest . . .

AFC East
NYJ - No
NE - No
Buffalo - Maybe
Miami - Maybe

AFC North
PIT - No
CLE - No
Cin - No
BAL - Doubtful

AFC South
JAC - No
TEN - No
IND - Doubtful
HOU - Maybe

AFC West (Doubt they would trade him within the division)
KC - No
Oak - No
DEN - Doubtful

NFC East
DAL - No
NYG - No
WAS - Maybe
PHI - Maybe

NFC North
MIN - No
CHI - Doubtful
GB - Doubtful
DET - Doubtful

NFC South
NO - No
CAR - No
ATL - Doubtful
TB - Maybe

NFC West
LAR - No
SEA - No
ARI - No
SF - Maybe

By my count, that's 7 maybes. Another question to ask would be if a team with minimal playoff chances would be interested in acquiring Gordon. Houston has post season aspirations, but they just traded a ton of draft picks.
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

Looking around the league as to who might have interest . . .

AFC East
NYJ - No
NE - No
Buffalo - Maybe
Miami - Maybe

AFC North
PIT - No
CLE - No
Cin - No
BAL - Doubtful

AFC South
JAC - No
TEN - No
IND - Doubtful
HOU - Maybe

AFC West (Doubt they would trade him within the division)
KC - No
Oak - No
DEN - Doubtful

NFC East
DAL - No
NYG - No
WAS - Maybe
PHI - Maybe

NFC North
MIN - No
CHI - Doubtful
GB - Doubtful
DET - Doubtful

NFC South
NO - No
CAR - No
ATL - Doubtful
TB - Maybe

NFC West
LAR - No
SEA - No
ARI - No
SF - Maybe

By my count, that's 7 maybes. Another question to ask would be if a team with minimal playoff chances would be interested in acquiring Gordon. Houston has post season aspirations, but they just traded a ton of draft picks.
 

I think a lot of your “maybes” should be “doubtfuls”. Baltimore signed Ingram; Houston has already traded for 2 RBs this offseason; Miami is clearly tanking; Washington has Guice and Peterson. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

How often has a player held out into a regular season and then been traded to another team? I don't know the answer.

Certainly that is probably a small number. But so is the number of players that have held out into a season and missed actual games.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't see anyone trading for him unless there is a contender with a significant injury at RB.  Even still, with guys like Jay Ajayi laying around unsigned that may not happen.  He's simply not viewed as a game changing RB so he's not going to get the contract he desires.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Would this guy even play at his current salary if he was traded to another team? Isn’t that why he’s holding out? I don’t see any way that the 2019 Gordon believers will magically have him scoring touchdowns in another uniform any time soon. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Certainly that is probably a small number. But so is the number of players that have held out into a season and missed actual games.

But the dynamic is different. For a player to hold out, that is his decision alone. For a trade to happen:

  1. Two front offices have to agree on compensation
  2. The receiving front office has to presumably come to agreement with the player on a new contract
  3. All at a time when rosters have been set and cap space is generally at a low point

I think the trade scenario is significantly less likely and would not equate the two scenarios as if they are similarly improbable.

Edited by Just Win Baby

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Just Win Baby said:

But the dynamic is different. For a player to hold out, that is his decision alone. For a trade to happen:

  1. Two front offices have to agree on compensation
  2. The receiving front office has to presumably come to agreement with the player on a new contract
  3. All at a time when rosters have been set and cap space is generally at a low point, and presumably

I think the trade scenario is significantly less likely and would not equate the two scenarios as if they are similarly improbable.

I agree that hold out trades are rare. The one I dug up was LB Cornelius Bennett, who was the 2nd overall pick by the Colts in 1987. He did not sign and got traded to the the Bills from the Colts in a three-way trade that also included the Rams Eric Dickerson and Bills running back Greg Bell. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Certainly that is probably a small number. But so is the number of players that have held out into a season and missed actual games.

Players under contract holding out into the season is very rare.  The percentage that get traded is probably fairly high of that small number.  It's probably similar to the percentage of franchised tagged players who get traded.  Melvin's relationship has probably been irrevocably damaged with the Chargers.  The Chargers will probably be content to get a 2nd or 3rd round pick and be done with the matter and move on.  And Melvin's pride might make him prefer to play for another team if he is going to have to play out his contract.  Possibly the best Melvin can hope for at this point is a guarantee that he won't be tagged next year if he does report and play out the remaining year of his contract.

 

Edited by Don Hutson

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At this point I’m kind of rooting for Gordon to slink back tomorrow & start week 1. 

Just for the total chaos it’ll cause in the FF community. I’m not invested in any of them. just good for :popcorn:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Players under contract holding out into the season is very rare.  The percentage that get traded is probably fairly high of that small number.  Melvin's relationship has probably been irrevocably damaged with the Chargers.  The Chargers will probably be content to get a 2nd or 3rd round pick and be done with the matter and move on.  And Melvin's pride might make him prefer to play for another team if he is going to have to play out his contract.  Possibly the best Melvin can hope for at this point is a guarantee that he won't be tagged next year if he does report and play out the remaining year of his contract.

 

Not so sure about that. The notoriously cheap Chargers are saving $330k a week, and they have very capable backups in Eckeler & Jackson.

i see no reason for them to budge off of their (unreasonable) trade demands, and suspect they purposely set them unreasonably high to prevent a trade from being made.

No team is going to pay a 1st and a 5th for a guy they then have to extend a new contract to in the 13M guaranteed range. It’s just not realistic a week before the season. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Players under contract holding out into the season is very rare.  The percentage that get traded is probably fairly high of that small number.  It's probably similar to the percentage of franchised tagged players who get traded.  Melvin's relationship has probably been irrevocably damaged with the Chargers.  The Chargers will probably be content to get a 2nd or 3rd round pick and be done with the matter and move on.  And Melvin's pride might make him prefer to play for another team if he is going to have to play out his contract.  Possibly the best Melvin can hope for at this point is a guarantee that he won't be tagged next year if he does report and play out the remaining year of his contract.

Actually, JWB is right on this one. Very few players that hold out in to the season get traded. At this point the Chargers can either continue to play hard ball and hope he comes back . . . or they may feel he isn't worth the headache and trade him for less than they expect to get back. Gordon can decide when and if he wants to play for the amount he is due, with an eye on reporting in time to be able to count this year and be eligible for free agency. Of course, the Chargers can threaten to franchise him next year and really escalate the fireworks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guy is simply over valuing himself big time.

It is pretty incredible. 

 

For his career -

 

Averaged 907 yards rushing per year at 4 YPC 

Averaged 394 yards receiving per year at 8.7 YPC

Avg 7 TD's per year

 

He wants freaking Zeke and Gurley money. 

He is out of his mind. 

 

Take your 10MM a year and freaking thank the god's for your ability to play in the NFL as a solid NFL RB. Melvin.....you are simply not on that level.

Edited by Todem

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Todem said:

Guy is simply over valuing himself big time.

It is pretty incredible. 

 

For his career -

 

Averaged 907 yards rushing per year at 4 YPC 

Averaged 394 yards receiving per year at 8.7 YPC

Avg 7 TD's per year

 

He wants freaking Zeke and Gurley money. 

He is out of his mind. 

 

Take your 10MM a year and freaking thank the god's for your ability to play int he NFL as a solid NFL RB. Melvin.....you are simply not on that level.

Well - I don't know.  He's not Zeke or Gurley - that's for sure.  But he's no slouch.  He's light years better than Ekeler and Justin Jackson no matter what the stats say.  Eye's don't lie.  He's a game changing true 3 down back. He averaged 5.1 YPC last year.  Scored 14 TD's.  50 catches.  In 12 games.  He is really, really good.  He has skill sets many of even the top RB1's don't have.  If he would have played 16 games last year vs 12 and not be battling a fragile tag his argument would be much, much stronger.  Nobody wants to pay for durability concerns.  Zeke getting his money at least helps his cause.  Not to get that amount, but to get more than he's been offered.  Spanos may be too cheap to pay.  But somebody will, this year or next.  Judging by what Zeke got, with 2 years left on his contract, seeing LeVeon's situation last year and what Gurley/Johnson got does anybody blame him for holding out for more? I don't.  RBs had to flex muscle as they were getting absolutely used by owners.  Grind them to the ground, dump before paying beyond the rookie contract.  Tide is turning.  Rightfully so.  

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Todem said:

Take your 10MM a year and freaking thank the god's for your ability to play in the NFL as a solid NFL RB. Melvin.....you are simply not on that level.

If I'm understanding the news correctly, that's been taken off the table.  At this point it's play for $5.6m or whatever his current 5th year option amount is, or don't play. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Not so sure about that. The notoriously cheap Chargers are saving $330k a week, and they have very capable backups in Eckeler & Jackson.

i see no reason for them to budge off of their (unreasonable) trade demands, and suspect they purposely set them unreasonably high to prevent a trade from being made.

No team is going to pay a 1st and a 5th for a guy they then have to extend a new contract to in the 13M guaranteed range. It’s just not realistic a week before the season. 

I don't think you're wrong about no trade happening, but all the money really has to be is more than what LA was offering him.  That was reported to be just above what Freeman's deal is, which is $8.25m average per year.  Meaning that a new team might not have to pay him $13m, and maybe not even $10m a year to get him interested.  Getting the Chargers interested is a different story. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He reportedly turned down $10 M per year.  That number this year would put him at #6 on the Chargers roster behind:

QB - Phil Rivers

LB - Melvin Ingram

T - Russ Okung

WR - Keenan Allen

CB - Casey Hayward

Seems reasonable to me.  Is he more valuable to the Chargers than any of those guys?

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For RB's that have played in at least 16 games, Gordon ranks 9th in YFS per game over the past 4 years.

Bell - 137
Zeke - 131.2
Barkley - 126.75
Gurley - 110.9
Hunt - 110.5
Kamara - 101.5
McCaffrey - 95.3
Freeman - 94.7
Gordon - 94.6
D Johnson - 93.7
Fournette - 93.6
McCoy - 90.3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

For RB's that have played in at least 16 games, Gordon ranks 9th in YFS per game over the past 4 years.

Bell - 137
Zeke - 131.2
Barkley - 126.75
Gurley - 110.9
Hunt - 110.5
Kamara - 101.5
McCaffrey - 95.3
Freeman - 94.7
Gordon - 94.6
D Johnson - 93.7
Fournette - 93.6
McCoy - 90.3

10MM a year was market value for sure. I like Gordon. I love his skill set. But he is not the most durable back and he is not on the Bell/Zeke/Barkley/Gurley level in my opinion. 

I would go higher than 10MM for him......but not much more. Maybe the Chargers are cheap......but i do not think many teams will spend more than say 11-11.5MM per year for him. 

He is no slouch.....and I understand about players getting as much as they can.

I also love when I hear guys say.....well he signed a deal he should honer it. Well owners don't. Once the guaranteed money is done they will cut yer ### with years left. This is not the NBA MLB or NHL where every penny is guaranteed. 

The players have a crappy CBA. So it also on them. Their union is extremely weak. 

But still....I think Gordon made a big mistake. 10MM a year guaranteed (I don't know any of the specifics of his deal) is solid for an NFL RB of his caliber and shelf life.

Bell will never get back what he gave up last season. He also got horrible money advice.

Edited by Todem
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, brewer said:

He reportedly turned down $10 M per year.  That number this year would put him at #6 on the Chargers roster behind:

QB - Phil Rivers

LB - Melvin Ingram

T - Russ Okung

WR - Keenan Allen

CB - Casey Hayward

Seems reasonable to me.  Is he more valuable to the Chargers than any of those guys?

That's never a fair comparison as it depends on who's on rookie deals, who had to be tagged, a few stars with extensions. etc.  Personally? I think he's at least as valuable as Keenan Allen.  Talk about a guy who's fragile and limps off every other play.  Okung? Maybe he's worth more 4 years ago but you're paying for the position.  They have history.  Why didn't they pay Weddle?

And the amount per year is only one view.  Would bet my house that the Chargers lowballed the guarantee.  The market is being reset and if they want Gordon or a comparable back it's going to cost them more now.  They think they can live with Ekeler (no way can he take volume - gets his bell rung) or Jackson (limited history).  No way they are a SuperBowl contending team with that duo.  But they'll save a few bucks.

Edited by Judge Smails
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gordon trying to get bigger contract than he thought he was worth:toilet:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, brewer said:

He reportedly turned down $10 M per year.  That number this year would put him at #6 on the Chargers roster behind:

QB - Phil Rivers

LB - Melvin Ingram

T - Russ Okung

WR - Keenan Allen

CB - Casey Hayward

Seems reasonable to me.  Is he more valuable to the Chargers than any of those guys?

I'm wondering how accurate that report of the offer is.  What I saw was that....

"Yahoo's Charles Robinson reports the Chargers and holdout Melvin Gordon are currently $2-3 million apart in average annual value.

Per Robinson, the Chargers would be comfortable bettering Devonta Freeman's five-year, $41.25 million deal, but that Gordon is hoping for something in the range of David Johnson's three years and $39 million. That does not sound like a gap that will be bridged any time soon."

Freeman's deal was a 5 year extension (so for 5 years after 2017 when he was already under contract) with $41.25m total on it.  Really it was just a $15m signing bonus with another year of $2m guaranteed salary for 2018 and $3.75m for 2019.  Anyway, let's just say that this was the deal he was offered.  As an extension, it would mean he's still playing this year at $5.6m, and then next year at $2m, and 2021 at $3.75m....but with an extra $15m in hand today as his signing bonus (life changing money).  In total, that would be $26.35m over the next 3 seasons, guaranteed, with "funny money" (not guaranteed) there after.  Anyway, that's an average of $8.78m a year, which is still more than Freeman on an annual basis, and would still make him #5 highest paid today (after Zeke, Gurley, Bell and Johnson)....but isn't $10m a year. 

Edited by matttyl
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think a lot of your “maybes” should be “doubtfuls”. Baltimore signed Ingram; Houston has already traded for 2 RBs this offseason; Miami is clearly tanking; Washington has Guice and Peterson. 

Isn't it really just TB or PHI (if you they take Howard in return)?

The only other team that would have a need for him would be the Chargers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

He's light years better than Ekeler and Justin Jackson no matter what the stats say.  Eye's don't lie.

Light years better? I don't think so. We may soon have a larger body of evidence on Ekeler and Jackson to help support an answer one way or another.

48 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

He is really, really good.  He has skill sets many of even the top RB1's don't have.

I agree he is really good. But I personally think these RBs are all clearly better: Barkley, Elliott, McCaffrey, Kamara, Bell, and Gurley. And I think arguments could be made that he is not clearly better than Chubb, Mixon, Johnson, or Cook, he has just had more opportunity, better situation, and/or better injury luck than them. That's a lot of RBs. Not all of them deserve to be paid like a top 3-5 RB. That should actually be reserved for the ones who are, you know, top 3-5 RBs.

Gordon is also a bit of a conundrum. He is really good, yet it is a long running joke among Chargers fans that his vision is terrible. One of the reasons his ypc hasn't been very good throughout his career is due to that.

54 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

Nobody wants to pay for durability concerns

Agreed. He has had multiple injuries in his Chargers career, affecting 3 of his 4 seasons. He had a heavy workload in college and in the NFL to date, which contributes to that, but there is no reason to expect him to suddenly be consistently healthy. Especially considering he had microfracture surgery on his knee.

55 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

Spanos may be too cheap to pay.

I despise Spanos, but this is not the issue. First off, the team generally spends to the cap, which refutes that it could be 'cheapness'.

More importantly, the Chargers have to pay all of these All Pro/Pro Bowl players over the next 2 offseasons or let them walk: Rivers, Allen, Henry, Pouncey, Okung, Bosa, Ingram, Hayward, King. Every one of those guys arguably plays a more valuable position to the team than Gordon does. It just isn't possible to pay them all and also pay Gordon.

58 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

does anybody blame him for holding out for more?

Yes. I do. IMO he looks like an idiot, and he should probably fire his agent for giving him such bad advice.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

No way they are a SuperBowl contending team with that duo.

:blackdot: 

They may or may not be a Super Bowl contender, but the injuries to Okung and James will have a much greater negative impact on the team than Gordon's absence.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Light years better? I don't think so. We may soon have a larger body of evidence on Ekeler and Jackson to help support an answer one way or another.

I agree he is really good. But I personally think these RBs are all clearly better: Barkley, Elliott, McCaffrey, Kamara, Bell, and Gurley. And I think arguments could be made that he is not clearly better than Chubb, Mixon, Johnson, or Cook, he has just had more opportunity, better situation, and/or better injury luck than them. That's a lot of RBs. Not all of them deserve to be paid like a top 3-5 RB. That should actually be reserved for the ones who are, you know, top 3-5 RBs.

Gordon is also a bit of a conundrum. He is really good, yet it is a long running joke among Chargers fans that his vision is terrible. One of the reasons his ypc hasn't been very good throughout his career is due to that.

Agreed. He has had multiple injuries in his Chargers career, affecting 3 of his 4 seasons. He had a heavy workload in college and in the NFL to date, which contributes to that, but there is no reason to expect him to suddenly be consistently healthy. Especially considering he had microfracture surgery on his knee.

I despise Spanos, but this is not the issue. First off, the team generally spends to the cap, which refutes that it could be 'cheapness'.

More importantly, the Chargers have to pay all of these All Pro/Pro Bowl players over the next 2 offseasons or let them walk: Rivers, Allen, Henry, Pouncey, Okung, Bosa, Ingram, Hayward, King. Every one of those guys arguably plays a more valuable position to the team than Gordon does. It just isn't possible to pay them all and also pay Gordon.

Yes. I do. IMO he looks like an idiot, and he should probably fire his agent for giving him such bad advice.

How about at least comparing apples to apples.  Gurley and Bell already got their deals.  Gurley's hurt and Bell may not be the same Bell in Pittsburgh.  Barkley, McCaffrey and Kamara still on original contracts.  Latter two will get paid soon.  BIG.  Barkley will likely set the new record when it's time.  Chubb and Mixon are 2nd/3rd year guys. Cook missed more games than he's played or pretty close.  Johnson got paid.

You lost all credibility with me by saying Gordon is not light years better than Ekeler or Jackson.  I've seen them play in person many times.  He's so much better than those 2 it's not funny.  They'll find out this year.  Gordon is a back who can get you to the SuperBowl.  Play all 3 downs.  Not Jackson on first down or 2nd down (defense expects a run) then put in Ekeler (watch for pass).  They got away with it sometimes last year and those 2 benefitted by spelling Gordon. We'll see how they hold up this year.

One could say Elliott's was an idiot for holding out with 2 years left? Was he? Everyone thought Bell's and agent were stupid - but they got their guaranteed money.  Show me how much guaranteed money the Chargers offered Gordon.  Gordon will get market value at some point.  Granted, it's lower than the big 3-4 but he's an elite back.  Imagine him in Kansas City. My God.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

:blackdot: 

They may or may not be a Super Bowl contender, but the injuries to Okung and James will have a much greater negative impact on the team than Gordon's absence.

They are all terrible hits, especially James.  Chargers back to being a non-factor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

How about at least comparing apples to apples.  Gurley and Bell already got their deals.  Gurley's hurt and Bell may not be the same Bell in Pittsburgh.  Barkley, McCaffrey and Kamara still on original contracts.  Latter two will get paid soon.  BIG.  Barkley will likely set the new record when it's time.  Chubb and Mixon are 2nd/3rd year guys. Cook missed more games than he's played or pretty close.  Johnson got paid.

Yes, Gurley got paid, and it is turning out to be a bad deal for LA. Yes, Johnson got paid, and he has not played up to his contract so far. Yes, Bell got paid, and his new HC came out in the media this offseason and said the team shouldn't have paid him so much. You know who else got paid? McKinnon and Freeman, both bad deals for their teams.

Yes, Barkley, McCaffrey, and Kamara are going to get paid big contracts. All of them are better than Gordon.

29 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

You lost all credibility with me by saying Gordon is not light years better than Ekeler or Jackson...  Gordon is a back who can get you to the SuperBowl.

Well, you lost all credibility with me by taking this stance while ignoring the fact that the Chargers were 4-0 without Gordon last season, including wins over TEN in London and wins at PIT and at KC. They won 3 of their biggest games all season without him, and, yes, with Ekeler and Jackson.

Then you also ignored that Gordon had 26 carries for 55 yards and 2 catches for 14 yards in the Chargers' 2 playoff games last season but had the nerve to post he is a back who can get you to the Super Bowl. SMH.

  • Love 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

They are all terrible hits, especially James.  Chargers back to being a non-factor.

:blackdot: 

We'll see about that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Todem said:

10MM a year was market value for sure. I like Gordon. I love his skill set. But he is not the most durable back and he is not on the Bell/Zeke/Barkley/Gurley level in my opinion. 

I would go higher than 10MM for him......but not much more. Maybe the Chargers are cheap......but i do not think many teams will spend more than say 11-11.5MM per year for him. 

He is no slouch.....and I understand about players getting as much as they can.

I also love when I hear guys say.....well he signed a deal he should honer it. Well owners don't. Once the guaranteed money is done they will cut yer ### with years left. This is not the NBA MLB or NHL where every penny is guaranteed. 

The players have a crappy CBA. So it also on them. Their union is extremely weak. 

But still....I think Gordon made a big mistake. 10MM a year guaranteed (I don't know any of the specifics of his deal) is solid for an NFL RB of his caliber and shelf life.

Bell will never get back what he gave up last season. He also got horrible money advice.

I aways hated this argument and funny thing is I learned about this reading TO's autobiography that came out when he was with the Eagles. Many fans of other sports or just Football fans see the contract totals (Lets make this fairly easily) say a guy gets 5 yrs for $100M thats $20M a year but he might only get $35M guaranteed that maybe with bonuses (Yds gotten, catches, TKL, SKs,INTS, Pro Bowls, MVP/Sb MVP. Leading rushing etc) maybe he gets another $10m-15M. So he's up to 50M gauranteed in 3 yrs. Now say the team owes little money in the next 2 maybe 5M maybe less on the contract. The team releases him year 4. He may have only made 52.5M out of the 100M he signed. Thats over $45M he's not getting. 

Look at the contracts in Basketball and Baseball and you don't see many high paid contracts get cut. Why? The WHOLE CONTRACT IS GUARANTEED. Ya think after all the ARod stuff the Yanks would've loved to not have had guarantee contracts in Baseball and they could've rid themselves of a headache sooner? What about The Giants and Barry Zito? They literally DL'd him for the 2nd half of a season with a phantom injury just so they wouldn't have to play him. In Football you get cut you you aren't seeing all that money 100M you signed ever. 

I think paying high on any RB in todays league is horrible. I think Zeke is good but how good would he be without that Dallas Offensive line? It's not just the RB but the guys he has in front blocking for him. Sometimes its easier for teams to try and stop the run when teams know the only threat is an RB. I use to argue this on an old board why cutting Desean Jackson hurt the Eagles and Shady in the run game. Teams could play up on the line and with no deep threat to worry about you didn't have to back off the line all the time. At that time the Eagles had literally no one who could beat anyone 1v1. Shady still put up decent numbers that final year but no where close IMHO he'd have gotten if DeSean had been there. Its not just your talent but the Guys around you

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd hate to be drafted by the Chargers. You know they are going to play hardball with you from day one. It just wouldn't be fun in that environment.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.