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gianmarco

***Official Melvin "Flash" Gordon*** Thread of Love

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35 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I'd hate to be drafted by the Chargers. You know they are going to play hardball with you from day one. It just wouldn't be fun in that environment.

On the flip side, you also know you are going to be on a playoff contender. There are a lot of players who would happily sacrifice 2-3 million a year to play for a good team. 

Also, while this isn't directed at you. I hate how a lot of this thread(and the Zeke thread) has become about owners v.players, and how its crazy to side with billion dollar owners. Nobody is saying don't pay players, the people such as myself who hated the Elliott deal, and would have zero interest in Gordon at 10 million a year, aren't saying guys shouldn't get paid, just not RB's, over other more valuable positions. 

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54 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I'd hate to be drafted by the Chargers. You know they are going to play hardball with you from day one. It just wouldn't be fun in that environment.

Works for the Patriots.

Remember when Jamie Collins wanted big $$$? Boom, you're now a Cleveland Brown.

 

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4 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

How often has a player held out into a regular season and then been traded to another team? I don't know the answer.

 

Keenan McCardell held out under contract and was traded shortly before the trade deadline.  And then he was forced to return $1.5 million of his signing bonus.  It is extremely rare for a player to hold out into the season when they are under contract.  This situation is a little different than most because Melvin kind of got the shaft when they slapped the 5th year option on him which is the average of the 3rd to 25th highest paid players at the position in the previous year because he was drafted between 11th and 32nd.  Technically he is under contract but this feels similar to a player who is slapped with the franchise tag, except he is being paid way less.  The 5th year option seems extremely unfair especially for a running back whose career is usually short.

 

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22 minutes ago, travdogg said:

On the flip side, you also know you are going to be on a playoff contender. There are a lot of players who would happily sacrifice 2-3 million a year to play for a good team. 

Also, while this isn't directed at you. I hate how a lot of this thread(and the Zeke thread) has become about owners v.players, and how its crazy to side with billion dollar owners. Nobody is saying don't pay players, the people such as myself who hated the Elliott deal, and would have zero interest in Gordon at 10 million a year, aren't saying guys shouldn't get paid, just not RB's, over other more valuable positions. 

SD can playoff all they want they ain't winning a title behind that terrible OL with the non mobile QB they have right now. I'm pretty happy about that. The Chargers are starting to get a reputation that might hurt them in the future. 

 

Instead of holding these guys hostage teams should just trade the disgruntled RB to a team for a 3rd round pick and move on. 

Edited by Milkman

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7 minutes ago, Patrick the Pirate said:

Works for the Patriots.

Remember when Jamie Collins wanted big $$$? Boom, you're now a Cleveland Brown.

 

It ain't working for the Chargers. 

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39 minutes ago, Patrick the Pirate said:

Works for the Patriots.

Remember when Jamie Collins wanted big $$$? Boom, you're now a Cleveland Brown.

 

I mentioned this in several threads. This wouldn’t have happened in NE, as BB would not put up with it. They would say you have a contract, play it out. Then they would talk after. Play or don’t play. Up to you. Just don’t expect more money. You might get traded to the Cardinals. Or Lions. Or the Niners. Or Dolphins. Or another less than desirable location. BB might even take pennies on the dollar on exchange. But you aren’t going to walk into his office and demand a ton more money. He might throw you a bone and tack on some incentives. Brady and Gronk couldn’t even get a new deal with guaranteed money. No way, no how could a RB on a rookie deal be able to. 

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41 minutes ago, Milkman said:

SD can playoff all they want they ain't winning a title behind that terrible OL with the non mobile QB they have right now. I'm pretty happy about that. The Chargers are starting to get a reputation that might hurt them in the future. 

 

Instead of holding these guys hostage teams should just trade the disgruntled RB to a team for a 3rd round pick and move on. 

Wait no one wants to pay Gordon, let alone give up a 3 round pick.

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2 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

 

Well, you lost all credibility with me by taking this stance while ignoring the fact that the Chargers were 4-0 without Gordon last season, including wins over TEN in London and wins at PIT and at KC. They won 3 of their biggest games all season without him, and, yes, with Ekeler and Jackson.

Then you also ignored that Gordon had 26 carries for 55 yards and 2 catches for 14 yards in the Chargers' 2 playoff games last season but had the nerve to post he is a back who can get you to the Super Bowl. SMH.

Gordon, like Gurley, was hurt at the end of the season. So you want fact checking? Let's go.  Against Tennessee Ekeler had 12 carries for 42 with 26 yards receiving.  Against Pittsburgh he had 13 carries for 21 (that's right) yards and 22 yards receiving.  In the win against KC he didn't have a carry or a catch.  Still want to play?  To even suggest Austin freakin' Ekeler or Justin Jackson is anywhere, anywhere close to Melvin Gordon is a complete farce.  They won those 3 games on the back of Rivers, who was lights out on the road last year.  Nothing to do with Ekeler or Jackson.

Edited to eat a little crow - Jackson did have decent games vs. Pitt and KC.  We'll see.

Edited by Judge Smails

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8 minutes ago, Gopher State said:

Wait no one wants to pay Gordon, let alone give up a 3 round pick.

Then a 4th round pick. The point is he's taken a lot of damage for the Chargers. They can trade him. 

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Instead the play hardball with him. The Chargers way. He'll be there week 10 SD. GJGE

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3 hours ago, Judge Smails said:

Gordon, like Gurley, was hurt at the end of the season. So you want fact checking? Let's go.  Against Tennessee Ekeler had 12 carries for 42 with 26 yards receiving.  Against Pittsburgh he had 13 carries for 21 (that's right) yards and 22 yards receiving.  In the win against KC he didn't have a carry or a catch.  Still want to play?  To even suggest Austin freakin' Ekeler or Justin Jackson is anywhere, anywhere close to Melvin Gordon is a complete farce.  They won those 3 games on the back of Rivers, who was lights out on the road last year.  Nothing to do with Ekeler or Jackson.

Edited to eat a little crow - Jackson did have decent games vs. Pitt and KC.  We'll see.

The first point is, they didn’t need Gordon to win some of the biggest games of their season.

The second point, which you ignored, is that Gordon completely sucked in the playoffs, yet you referenced him as a RB who can take a team to a Super Bowl. 

We are both on record. You think Ekeler and Jackson will suck and the Chargers will suffer so much that they will not be able to contend without Gordon. I disagree. 

I will note something here. Both of these things can be true: Gordon can be better than Ekeler and Jackson AND Ekeler and Jackson can be good enough and play well enough for the team to achieve its goals. You don’t seem to be making room for this to be true. 

We will know soon enough. 

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3 hours ago, Milkman said:

Then a 4th round pick. The point is he's taken a lot of damage for the Chargers. They can trade him. 

The Chargers will get a 3rd round compensatory pick when Gordon signs with another team. No point in trading him for less. 

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30 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

The Chargers will get a 3rd round compensatory pick when Gordon signs with another team. No point in trading him for less. 

Good point. It looks like more RB are going to start doing this so teams should be ready to offer up big contracts or see RB holding out until they have to come back. 

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

The Chargers will get a 3rd round compensatory pick when Gordon signs with another team. No point in trading him for less. 

As I outlined earlier, the best third round compensatory pick is essentially an early 4th round pick (the best one comes after all the 3rd round picks have been made). Given the exploding salaries of free agents of late at other positions, Gordon might only qualify for a 4th round compensatory pick (which is essentially an early 5th round pick). The other issue is that compensatory picks would be for two drafts away. Most teams look at picks from future drafts beyond the next one at a discount. Since it is further into the future and the team would have to wait, generally speaking, those future picks usually get valued as one round later than they actually are. So what you call a 3rd round compensatory, which is really an early 4th round pick, would be considered essentially an early 5th round pick in terms of trade value. If Gordon were to fall to the 4th round compensatory pick level, that would essentially be worth an early 6th round pick in trade value. And if the Chargers signed a high priced free agent with a similar average annual contract value next off season, they would not get anything for Gordon as far as compensatory picks go.

That's how NFL GM's look at things. So IMO, an offer of a 3rd round pick in the upcoming 2020 draft carries far more trade capital than a chance at a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2021 draft (if they even earn one for Gordon).

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7 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

The Chargers will get a 3rd round compensatory pick when Gordon signs with another team. No point in trading him for less. 

Not necessarily.

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I've posed this question to a few people:  "Which Gordon will have more fantasy points this year, Josh or Melvin?"

Most everybody is saying Josh will do something stupid to get suspended again and that Melvin will have more points but I think Melvin isn't coming back or getting traded anytime soon and Josh will have more points.

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19 minutes ago, KellysHeroes said:

any chance the Packers come knocking?  Gordon is leaps and bounds better than Jones and he'll be out of the conference 

GB would face the same issues being discussed in here. If they view him as a one year only rental option, would Gordon play for another team if he is holding out for a new contract with a lot of it guaranteed? If they want to give him a new contract and overpay financially (he's probably a Top 10-12 back wanted Top 3 money), then what would they be willing to give up in draft picks when they would also have to give him big money? I don't see any team forking over a first round pick for Gordon. I can't even remember the last time a RB got traded for a first round pick.

Gordon wants too much money, the Chargers want too much in a trade for Gordon, the team won't negotiate a new deal with Gordon, and teams won't want to give up much for a player that is refusing to play unless he cashes in. None of that bodes well for a trade getting consummated or Gordon getting back on the field.

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10 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

As I outlined earlier, the best third round compensatory pick is essentially an early 4th round pick (the best one comes after all the 3rd round picks have been made). Given the exploding salaries of free agents of late at other positions, Gordon might only qualify for a 4th round compensatory pick (which is essentially an early 5th round pick). The other issue is that compensatory picks would be for two drafts away. Most teams look at picks from future drafts beyond the next one at a discount. Since it is further into the future and the team would have to wait, generally speaking, those future picks usually get valued as one round later than they actually are. So what you call a 3rd round compensatory, which is really an early 4th round pick, would be considered essentially an early 5th round pick in terms of trade value. If Gordon were to fall to the 4th round compensatory pick level, that would essentially be worth an early 6th round pick in trade value. And if the Chargers signed a high priced free agent with a similar average annual contract value next off season, they would not get anything for Gordon as far as compensatory picks go.

That's how NFL GM's look at things. So IMO, an offer of a 3rd round pick in the upcoming 2020 draft carries far more trade capital than a chance at a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2021 draft (if they even earn one for Gordon).

 

4 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Not necessarily.

 

Yes, understand where compensatory draft picks fall, and understand that there is no guarantee. However, Gordon is likely to sign for a high average salary and presumably is likely to play enough for his next team in 2020 to grade high in the compensatory formula. It is rare that the Chargers sign external free agents to high average salaries, so it seems likely that the Gordon compensatory pick will be a 3rd round pick.

These picks have been valuable to the Chargers. There are 13 players drafted in the 4th round or later since 2016 on the Chargers' current roster, and another on IR. So Telesco has had a high success rate with his late round picks, and I can assure you that Telesco will value a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick.

Edited by Just Win Baby
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1 minute ago, Just Win Baby said:

These picks have been valuable to the Chargers. There are 13 players drafted in the 4th round or later since 2016 on the Chargers' current roster, and another is on IR. I can assure you that Telesco will value a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick.

Therein lies why a trade will likely not happen. The Chargers will value that potential 3rd or 4th compensatory pick and try to justify that as a reason to get a high pick from one of the other 31 teams. But if no other team is willing to part with a high pick, nothing will happen. No one is saying that the compensatory pick isn't valuable. The Eagles, Patriots, and Ravens live off of them.

As you mentioned, it's very late in the game and in season hold out trades are rare. Even if a team somehow were infatuated with Gordon, I would expect low ball offers for him. The Chargers have painted themselves into a corner and are in a quandary with no easily resolution. At this point, the Chargers are trying to facilitate a trade from a position of weakness. Any other team knows they are in a pickle.

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10 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

As I outlined earlier, the best third round compensatory pick is essentially an early 4th round pick (the best one comes after all the 3rd round picks have been made). Given the exploding salaries of free agents of late at other positions, Gordon might only qualify for a 4th round compensatory pick (which is essentially an early 5th round pick). The other issue is that compensatory picks would be for two drafts away. Most teams look at picks from future drafts beyond the next one at a discount. Since it is further into the future and the team would have to wait, generally speaking, those future picks usually get valued as one round later than they actually are. So what you call a 3rd round compensatory, which is really an early 4th round pick, would be considered essentially an early 5th round pick in terms of trade value. If Gordon were to fall to the 4th round compensatory pick level, that would essentially be worth an early 6th round pick in trade value. And if the Chargers signed a high priced free agent with a similar average annual contract value next off season, they would not get anything for Gordon as far as compensatory picks go.

That's how NFL GM's look at things. So IMO, an offer of a 3rd round pick in the upcoming 2020 draft carries far more trade capital than a chance at a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2021 draft (if they even earn one for Gordon).

This.  Rivers isn't a spring chicken.  Waiting for 2 years for what is essentially an early 4th or early 5th is not ideal for a team designed to win now. 

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

The Chargers have painted themselves into a corner and are in a quandary with no easily resolution. At this point, the Chargers are trying to facilitate a trade from a position of weakness. Any other team knows they are in a pickle.

:confused: 

Odd take. The Chargers happen to have multiple very good backup RBs, an elite passing game, and an elite defense (though weakened until Derwin James returns). They were 4-0 without Gordon last year against TEN in London, CIN at home, and on the road against PIT and KC. Not an easy schedule of games.

Gordon will have to report in time for the second half of the season, or thereabouts. They should have no trouble getting by without him over the first 8 or 10 games, then they will have him down the stretch with fresh legs.

I'm surprised you don't seem to realize that the Chargers don't want to trade him and are not trying to facilitate a trade. They intentionally set an unreasonably high price, because it would take something unreasonably high to make them change their stance on that.

Gordon is the one who painted himself into a corner.

Edited by Just Win Baby

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1 hour ago, Pipes said:

This.  Rivers isn't a spring chicken.  Waiting for 2 years for what is essentially an early 4th or early 5th is not ideal for a team designed to win now. 

Yes, they are in a window to win now, which is why they aren't interested in trading Gordon, since that could negatively impact their chance to win in 2019. They will replace him this offseason, so this situation won't negatively impact their chance to win in 2020. The compensatory pick is just added value that comes with not trading him and not signing him to a contract above his value.

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1 minute ago, Just Win Baby said:

:confused: 

Odd take. The Chargers happen to have multiple very good backup RBs, an elite passing game, and an elite defense (though weakened until Derwin James returns). They were 4-0 without Gordon last year against TEN in London, CIN at home, and on the road against PIT and KC. Not an easy schedule of games.

Gordon will have to report in time for the second half of the season, or thereabouts. They should have no trouble getting by without him over the first 8 or 10 games, then they will have him down the stretch with fresh legs.

I'm surprised you don't seem to realize that the Chargers don't want to trade him and are not trying to facilitate a trade. They intentionally set an unreasonably high price, because it would take something unreasonably high to make them change their mind.

Gordon is the one who painted himself into a corner.

I meant if they were trying to trade him they won't get very far given what they are rumored to want back in a trade. I still think things won't be as hunky dory as you are making them, as I am not sure Gordon will come back and play the role of good soldier and give 110%. But we could be weeks and weeks away from that at this point.

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18 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

 

Keenan McCardell held out under contract and was traded shortly before the trade deadline.  And then he was forced to return $1.5 million of his signing bonus.  It is extremely rare for a player to hold out into the season when they are under contract.  This situation is a little different than most because Melvin kind of got the shaft when they slapped the 5th year option on him which is the average of the 3rd to 25th highest paid players at the position in the previous year because he was drafted between 11th and 32nd.  Technically he is under contract but this feels similar to a player who is slapped with the franchise tag, except he is being paid way less.  The 5th year option seems extremely unfair especially for a running back whose career is usually short.

 

He was advised by his agent and signed that deal. Unfair? He signed it. The team had a 5th year option.....he could have not agreed to a 5th year option knowing full well he could easily get locked into what he perceives as a below market deal.

 

So he is holding out. But he has zero leverage. Nada.  He will lose salary, pay fines and it is not going to end well. He is getting horrific advise.

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2 minutes ago, Todem said:

He was advised by his agent and signed that deal. Unfair? He signed it. The team had a 5th year option.....he could have not agreed to a 5th year option knowing full well he could easily get locked into what he perceives as a below market deal.

 

So he is holding out. But he has zero leverage. Nada.  He will lose salary, pay fines and it is not going to end well. He is getting horrific advise.

Curious, how does a first round pick go about receiving/signing a rookie contract that does not include the 5th year option?

I thought this was all stipulated by the CBA and was non-negotiable.

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Just now, davearm said:

Curious, how does a first round pick go about receiving/signing a rookie contract that does not include the 5th year option?

I thought this was all stipulated by the CBA and was non-negotiable.

Actually you are correct.

So again another example of his players union being weak and not negotiating a fair CBA. He can blame his union reps for his contract dispute not the owners.

I have sympathy for the players.....but in this case....he has zero leverage. Play your final season and freaking become a free agent and get your pay day. If you get hurt.....well dude...this is the game you chose to play. Players get insurance as well these days. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Todem said:

Actually you are correct.

So again another example of his players union being weak and not negotiating a fair CBA. He can blame his union reps for his contract dispute not the owners.

I have sympathy for the players.....but in this case....he has zero leverage. Play your final season and freaking become a free agent and get your pay day. If you get hurt.....well dude...this is the game you chose to play. Players get insurance as well these days. 

 

He doesn't have zero leverage, but it's not a lot.  All he can do is withhold his services.  That doesn't get him very far right now but if Ekeler and/or Jackson get hurt or are ineffective, and/or the Chargers see their season slipping away a few weeks in, that could change.

Given his options, I think it's pretty reasonable for him to hold out and minimize his injury exposure.  Play the 6 games (or whatever the magic number is) for $2M or whatever, and get out of there.  That's arguably better than enduring 16 games' worth of being run into the ground by a team that's moving on.

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Just now, davearm said:

He doesn't have zero leverage, but it's not a lot.  All he can do is withhold his services.  That doesn't get him very far right now but if Ekeler and/or Jackson get hurt or are ineffective, and/or the Chargers see their season slipping away a few weeks in, that could change.

Given his options, I think it's pretty reasonable for him to hold out and minimize his injury exposure.  Play the 6 games (or whatever the magic number is) for $2M or whatever, and get out of there.  That's arguably better than enduring 16 games' worth of being run into the ground by a team that's moving on.

Agree. And that is what he will ultimately end up doing. This is not ending well for the Chargers or his fantasy owners. Too bad. I like watching him play football. 

I think the Chargers will make due with Ekeler and Jackson though. While Gordon is certainly the best back on the team and by good amount...that combination will do fine and help them win games IMO. I saw enough of them last season to think in combination with Rivers and the passing game they can win without Gordon enough to soften the blow of not having Gordon in the lineup for 11 games if he indeed maxes his holdout to amount of games he can miss before coming back to make his contract service years valid to become an UFA in 2020.

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36 minutes ago, Todem said:

Agree. And that is what he will ultimately end up doing. This is not ending well for the Chargers or his fantasy owners. Too bad. I like watching him play football. 

I think the Chargers will make due with Ekeler and Jackson though. While Gordon is certainly the best back on the team and by good amount...that combination will do fine and help them win games IMO. I saw enough of them last season to think in combination with Rivers and the passing game they can win without Gordon enough to soften the blow of not having Gordon in the lineup for 11 games if he indeed maxes his holdout to amount of games he can miss before coming back to make his contract service years valid to become an UFA in 2020.

Why not on the bolded?  A fresh Melvin Gordon for the playoffs (with both of his backups likely being somewhat banged up) seems pretty righteous.  Given that he's going in the 7th-8th round of drafts lately, he's not really a guy you'd have to rely on to get to the fantasy playoffs any longer.

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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Why not on the bolded?  A fresh Melvin Gordon for the playoffs (with both of his backups likely being somewhat banged up) seems pretty righteous.  Given that he's going in the 7th-8th round of drafts lately, he's not really a guy you'd have to rely on to get to the fantasy playoffs any longer.

Long prolonged hold outs never bode well for injuries. Soft tissue injuries are very high risk when you are not in football shape. Don't fool yourself.

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Again, on my DND list, and happy to not have  t to worry about him......I couldn't believe how soon he went in my drafts.  Like 7/8 I believe.....I get last couple round flier, but thats way to early 

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Anyone traded for him in dynasty?  Seems like great buy low for the long term, but owners may be holding.

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1 hour ago, jm192 said:

Anyone traded for him in dynasty?  Seems like great buy low for the long term, but owners may be holding.

I tried flipping him for the likes of David Montgomery (with me adding some "incentive" - pick upgrades, cash) but didn't work out.

For now I'm holding but would certainly consider an offer for a RB in the same tier.

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2 hours ago, jm192 said:

Anyone traded for him in dynasty?  Seems like great buy low for the long term, but owners may be holding.

Offered a 2020 1st (expected to be late) and was rejected.

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RBs are harmed by the 5th year option, but that's the current rule. It can't be wished away.

There won't be a trade. It's hard to find a win-win box in the payoff matrix of a negative-sum game.

Stud RBs don't add many team wins. How much did the Vegas line move when Elliott signed? (I think zero.) It's generally better to spend money elsewhere.

I think there's at least a 25% chance that Gordon will report within the next few weeks. $330K justifies a game's worth of injury risk. How many RB starts are there for every injury that affects future earnings? Hundreds? Thousands? Only compound fractures or torn Achilles seem to affect future earnings. Mere ACL tears don't seem to matter anymore. So a 0.5% risk per game seems generous, and would have to reduce future earnings by $60 million to make sitting out a +EV move.

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On 9/4/2019 at 6:48 PM, travdogg said:

On the flip side, you also know you are going to be on a playoff contender. There are a lot of players who would happily sacrifice 2-3 million a year to play for a good team. 

Oh that is definitely not true. Maybe a few older vets at the end of the road but nobody coming out of the draft. 

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11 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Yes, they are in a window to win now, which is why they aren't interested in trading Gordon, since that could negatively impact their chance to win in 2019. They will replace him this offseason, so this situation won't negatively impact their chance to win in 2020. The compensatory pick is just added value that comes with not trading him and not signing him to a contract above his value.

That makes zero sense. Don’t want to sign him. Don’t want to trade him. How does that help them again? So what’s their strategy?

On the fantasy front I own zero shares of Chargers and I’m OK with that  

 

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59 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

RBs are harmed by the 5th year option, but that's the current rule. It can't be wished away.

There won't be a trade. It's hard to find a win-win box in the payoff matrix of a negative-sum game.

Stud RBs don't add many team wins. How much did the Vegas line move when Elliott signed? (I think zero.) It's generally better to spend money elsewhere.

I think there's at least a 25% chance that Gordon will report within the next few weeks. $330K justifies a game's worth of injury risk. How many RB starts are there for every injury that affects future earnings? Hundreds? Thousands? Only compound fractures or torn Achilles seem to affect future earnings. Mere ACL tears don't seem to matter anymore. So a 0.5% risk per game seems generous, and would have to reduce future earnings by $60 million to make sitting out a +EV move.

Keep going with your odds. 25% he signs in a few weeks. X% he comes back week 10. Y% that he’s traded in a month. 

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43 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

Keep going with your odds. 25% he signs in a few weeks. X% he comes back week 10. Y% that he’s traded in a month. 

Roughly 0% that he comes back Week 10. Roughly 100% that he comes back Week 9 or earlier. Roughly 0% that he’s traded.

My best estimate is that there’s around a 25% chance he returns in Week 2, around a 10% chance that he returns in Week 3, around a 60% chance that he returns in Week 9, and about a 5% chance that he returns sometime between Week 3 and Week 9.

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7 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Roughly 0% that he comes back Week 10. Roughly 100% that he comes back Week 9 or earlier. Roughly 0% that he’s traded.

My best estimate is that there’s around a 25% chance he returns in Week 2, around a 10% chance that he returns in Week 3, around a 60% chance that he returns in Week 9, and about a 5% chance that he returns sometime between Week 3 and Week 9.

Curious why you say that. I would put 70% chance he comes back week 10, 25% chance week 3-9 and 5% week 2 or 3.

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1 hour ago, Tool said:

Curious why you say that. I would put 70% chance he comes back week 10, 25% chance week 3-9 and 5% week 2 or 3.

The argument that he needs to report prior to week 9 is explained here. There is also an argument that he needs to report before week 13, explained here. Because it seems to be a gray area, it seems that a smart player (with a smart agent) would take the conservative approach and report no later than prior to week 9. But IMO Gordon and his agent have not shown themselves to be very smart so far, so who knows what he might do.

There is no argument that he needs to return prior to week 10, with 7 games remaining, or after week 10, with 6 games remaining, despite the fact that both of those things have been reported in the media much more often than reporting prior to week 9 or prior to week 13.

The reason he might report sooner than week 9 is obviously money. If he sits out until week 9, he will lose $2.6M, not including preseason fines.

Edited by Just Win Baby

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10 hours ago, Judge Smails said:

That makes zero sense. Don’t want to sign him. Don’t want to trade him. How does that help them again? So what’s their strategy?

On the fantasy front I own zero shares of Chargers and I’m OK with that  

It makes perfect sense. They are a better team with Gordon playing. By not trading him, he will report at some point, likely prior to week 9 as explained above. That will improve their chance of winning this season.

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

The argument that he needs to report prior to week 9 is explained here. There is also an argument that he needs to report before week 13, explained here. Because it seems to be a gray area, it seems that a smart player (with a smart agent) would take the conservative approach and report no later than prior to week 9. But IMO Gordon and his agent have not shown themselves to be very smart so far, so who knows what he might do.

There is no argument that he needs to return prior to week 10, with 7 games remaining, or after week 10, with 6 games remaining, despite the fact that both of those things have been reported in the media much more often than reporting prior to week 9 or prior to week 13.

The reason he might report sooner than week 9 is obviously money. If he sits out until week 9, he will lose $2.6M, not including preseason fines.

Would they actually enforce the preseason fines? I think that's around $2M. 

That's really the Chargers trump card isn't it? They could just say show up now or we are enforcing the pre season fines. He would report that day I would imagine.

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3 minutes ago, Patrick the Pirate said:

Would they actually enforce the preseason fines? I think that's around $2M. 

That's really the Chargers trump card isn't it? They could just say show up now or we are enforcing the pre season fines. He would report that day I would imagine.

I expect they would waive the fines for two reasons. First, they want him to play and play well once he reports. If they fine him $2M, he is more likely to be disgruntled and less likely to play hard and up to his capability. Second, their other players are observing how they handle the Gordon situation, and they want to minimize any bad impression that could affect future negotiations with other players.

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9 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

I expect they would waive the fines for two reasons. First, they want him to play and play well once he reports. If they fine him $2M, he is more likely to be disgruntled and less likely to play hard and up to his capability. Second, their other players are observing how they handle the Gordon situation, and they want to minimize any bad impression that could affect future negotiations with other players.

He would have to play well regardless once he reports because he is playing for next years contract.

Wouldn't it help the Chargers in future potential holdouts? These guys will know that if they plan to hold out, they are going to eat big fines.

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1 hour ago, Patrick the Pirate said:

He would have to play well regardless once he reports because he is playing for next years contract.

Wouldn't it help the Chargers in future potential holdouts? These guys will know that if they plan to hold out, they are going to eat big fines.

How much of a deterrent can fines be when guys like Bell are willing to sit out an entire season and forego $14.5M to reach UFA and guys like Elliott are willing to sit out with 2 years remaining on their rookie contract?

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33 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

How much of a deterrent can fines be when guys like Bell are willing to sit out an entire season and forego $14.5M to reach UFA and guys like Elliott are willing to sit out with 2 years remaining on their rookie contract?

Bell was unsigned, that's a completely different scenario.  Zeke and Gordon assumed that they had leverage over their franchise due to win-now attitudes.  Zeke was right.  Gordon ####ed with the wrong team, and his agent should have known this going into it.

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20 hours ago, jm192 said:

Anyone traded for him in dynasty?  Seems like great buy low for the long term, but owners may be holding.

Got Sony Michel for him straight up about two weeks ago

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