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Dynasty & Redraft: QB Deshaun Watson, Texans

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12 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Watson did just throw for 402 yards against a team that has not just five NFL prospects, but five legitimate FIRST ROUND prospects (not mentioning the guys that could go day two)...right?

And did the same last year as well

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It just seems to me that when teams Manhattan Project* the prospect evaluation process that they miss the obvious.

*Spend more time shrouding it in secrecy and misdirection than actually evaluating

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6 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

He's just not accurate enough for my taste. When you look at the top QBs, every single one of them has terrific accuracy. And accuracy doesn't seem to be a trait that improves much for pretty much any QB. Either a guy has it, or he doesn't.

 

2 hours ago, IHEARTFF said:

show your work

 

2 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

Guys I would deem as elite over the last 10 years:

Brady: 63.8%

Rodgers: 65.1%

P. Manning: 65.3%

Brees: 66.6%

Wilson: 64.7%

Roethlisberger: 64.1%

Completion percentage isn't the sole indicator of accuracy, but it's decent. And I think everyone would agree that those guys are all accurate passers. What's kind of crazy is that Brady actually has the lowest completion percentage out of all of those guys. Brady, Brees and Wilson all have OK arms, but nothing special. But all are accurate passers that are terrific at reading defenses.

Watson 67.4%

 

Edited by IHEARTFF

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1 hour ago, IHEARTFF said:

 

 

 

Watson 67.4%

 

College completion percentage is very misleading. Vince Young completed a lot of passes in college.

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I love when people say things like "not accurate enough for me" and "completion pct is misleading." In other words you are looking for things to say, true or not, to try to defend your point. You need better than saying a guy is 67% accurate is not accurate enough AND that its misleading because it doesnt jive with your point. As a guy on the fence about Watson as a player still, those are not very convincing.

This guys upside alone in a league that craves QBs and where guys like Bortles went 3rd and Goff went 1st is well worth the Browns taking him first when they need a QB. He wont last until 2nd in the NFL draft. A team will trade up. Browns have already made a bad move passing on Wentz who should not have been taken 2nd but was because his position is in demand in the NFL.

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28 minutes ago, WheelsUp said:

I love when people say things like "not accurate enough for me" and "completion pct is misleading." In other words you are looking for things to say, true or not, to try to defend your point. You need better than saying a guy is 67% accurate is not accurate enough AND that its misleading because it doesnt jive with your point. As a guy on the fence about Watson as a player still, those are not very convincing.

This guys upside alone in a league that craves QBs and where guys like Bortles went 3rd and Goff went 1st is well worth the Browns taking him first when they need a QB. He wont last until 2nd in the NFL draft. A team will trade up. Browns have already made a bad move passing on Wentz who should not have been taken 2nd but was because his position is in demand in the NFL.

Mostly agreed.  It will be fun to see how trubisky, Kizer and Watson look by the draft. I think they'll have to move up from 12 to get one of the 3, but they have the picks to take myles first, then focus on moving up from 12.

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1 hour ago, WheelsUp said:

I love when people say things like "not accurate enough for me" and "completion pct is misleading." In other words you are looking for things to say, true or not, to try to defend your point. You need better than saying a guy is 67% accurate is not accurate enough AND that its misleading because it doesnt jive with your point. As a guy on the fence about Watson as a player still, those are not very convincing.

This guys upside alone in a league that craves QBs and where guys like Bortles went 3rd and Goff went 1st is well worth the Browns taking him first when they need a QB. He wont last until 2nd in the NFL draft. A team will trade up. Browns have already made a bad move passing on Wentz who should not have been taken 2nd but was because his position is in demand in the NFL.

Browns won't take him first and would be big mistake if they did

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Why would it be a mistake for a team who needs a legit QB, to take a legit QB? Did you not see how he performed and took punishment from NFL caliber players? Did he not fight back to win against a team that has not lost in two years to show resilience? Did he throw for over 400 yards against what some were calling a historic defense?

This is a terrible QB class, you dont let the best one who just put on the tryout of a lifetime pass when that is your biggest need.
This isnt fantasy football, you draft for team needs not for best value. Best value has you end up being the Jets or Lions or Browns. He wont last until the 2nd and a team will trade up to get him, dont play around. Take him with the 1st.

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We've seen this script before, too many times.  QB value gets inflated b/c teams have FOMO.  Guys keep rising in drafts and get way overdrafted based on performance in a bowl game or combines.  Can't think of the last time a Qb who kept climbing in draft boards and then got picked first or top few picks was worth that draft slot. Usually it's been an epic fail.

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51 minutes ago, Tool said:

We've seen this script before, too many times.  QB value gets inflated b/c teams have FOMO.  Guys keep rising in drafts and get way overdrafted based on performance in a bowl game or combines.  Can't think of the last time a Qb who kept climbing in draft boards and then got picked first or top few picks was worth that draft slot. Usually it's been an epic fail.

He didn't rise in the draft boards because of his bowl performance(s). 

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On ‎1‎/‎12‎/‎2017 at 5:10 PM, WheelsUp said:

Browns better not think twice and grab this guy.

No chance they take him at the #1 pick.

 

On ‎1‎/‎13‎/‎2017 at 8:48 AM, petekrum said:

Maybe with their second first rounder, taking him number one overall would be a mistake.

Exactly.

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22 hours ago, petekrum said:

College completion percentage is very misleading. Vince Young completed a lot of passes in college.

I was responding to a guy who said he wasn't accurate enough.  His evidence was completion % of great QBs, so I responded with Watson's..

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2 hours ago, IHEARTFF said:

I was responding to a guy who said he wasn't accurate enough.  His evidence was completion % of great QBs, so I responded with Watson's..

I realize that, but comparing a college QBs percentage to pros is apples and oranges. Guys in college are open by yards while guys in the pros are open by inches.

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9 hours ago, Tool said:

We've seen this script before, too many times.  QB value gets inflated b/c teams have FOMO.  Guys keep rising in drafts and get way overdrafted based on performance in a bowl game or combines.  Can't think of the last time a Qb who kept climbing in draft boards and then got picked first or top few picks was worth that draft slot. Usually it's been an epic fail.

 

Wentz was pretty good this year.

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10 hours ago, WheelsUp said:

Why would it be a mistake for a team who needs a legit QB, to take a legit QB? Did you not see how he performed and took punishment from NFL caliber players? Did he not fight back to win against a team that has not lost in two years to show resilience? Did he throw for over 400 yards against what some were calling a historic defense?

This is a terrible QB class, you dont let the best one who just put on the tryout of a lifetime pass when that is your biggest need.
This isnt fantasy football, you draft for team needs not for best value. Best value has you end up being the Jets or Lions or Browns. He wont last until the 2nd and a team will trade up to get him, dont play around. Take him with the 1st.

I can tell you with one hundred percent certainty he won't go number one overall, nor should he. Now if they take him with their second first rounder I'd be all for it.

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I saw Clemson handle my Buckeyes pretty easily & came away unimpressed with Watson.  I also saw (only) the first half of the Bama game & came away unimpressed.  I realize that he orchestrated a tremendous comeback win, but I also remember a guy named Manziel doing that sort of thing.  I don't see an indisputable NFL franchise QB here, and I wouldn't take the risk with the top pick.  

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16 minutes ago, daveR said:

I saw Clemson handle my Buckeyes pretty easily & came away unimpressed with Watson.  I also saw (only) the first half of the Bama game & came away unimpressed.  I realize that he orchestrated a tremendous comeback win, but I also remember a guy named Manziel doing that sort of thing.  I don't see an indisputable NFL franchise QB here, and I wouldn't take the risk with the top pick.  

You're exactly right, which is why he won't go number one and why he probably won't be the first QB taken.

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Petekrum can tell us all with 100% certainty? Maybe, maybe not. But I can say with 100% certainty that all your posts are 100% rhetoric.

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On 1/14/2017 at 10:48 PM, Tool said:

We've seen this script before, too many times.  QB value gets inflated b/c teams have FOMO.  Guys keep rising in drafts and get way overdrafted based on performance in a bowl game or combines.  Can't think of the last time a Qb who kept climbing in draft boards and then got picked first or top few picks was worth that draft slot. Usually it's been an epic fail.

 

It has probably happened since (Wentz is one possible example) but I thought Rivers was considered a late 1st early in the draft process. I remember mocks having him going to the Fins at 20, with comments about that being high for him.

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Serious question? Who should the Browns take at 1? A RB? Another WR? Maybe a CB? They have a good OLine when healthy and have some pieces on D, the need is QB more than any. They need so many pieces in the big picture, but now? You take a guy who can make things happen, not a project. You do not trade out of that and gamble the one piece you need. You do not settle for a lesser QB when you have seen this guy light up the best D in all of college football. This is just my opinion, but to say their is 100% no chance they wont take him when even now there isnt anyone else really being talked as the #1 must have guy is pretty wreckless with the word "100% certainty."

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1 hour ago, WheelsUp said:

Serious question? Who should the Browns take at 1? A RB? Another WR? Maybe a CB? They have a good OLine when healthy and have some pieces on D, the need is QB more than any. They need so many pieces in the big picture, but now? You take a guy who can make things happen, not a project. You do not trade out of that and gamble the one piece you need. You do not settle for a lesser QB when you have seen this guy light up the best D in all of college football. This is just my opinion, but to say their is 100% no chance they wont take him when even now there isnt anyone else really being talked as the #1 must have guy is pretty wreckless with the word "100% certainty."

If the Browns have any clue at all they take one of the two DL's available, Garrett, or I think Allen from Alabama. Now they have another mid first draft pick where I think they could still get Watson, or they could use some of the picks they acquired to move up and ensure they get him. What they cannot do is take Watson number one overall.

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17 hours ago, WheelsUp said:

Petekrum can tell us all with 100% certainty? Maybe, maybe not. But I can say with 100% certainty that all your posts are 100% rhetoric.

Fine, bookmark the topic and tell me I'm wrong when he goes one overall. 

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The Akron Beacon Journal's Nate Ulrich relays that the Reese's Senior Bowl has yet to hear from Clemson QB Deshaun Watson as to whether he will attend the event.

 

The Senior Bowl extended an invitation to Watson earlier this winter. Still waiting to hear from the star quarterback, though. Should he attend, the 6-foot-2, 205-pound NFL-er to be could well be playing for his future coaches. Watson would be playing on the sideline coached by the Browns' staff. Cleveland holds the No. 1 overall pick -- Watson is unlikely to rise that high, though he could -- and the No. 12 overall pick (which they received as part of their trade with the Eagles last draft). The Senior Bowl will be played on January 28.
 
 
Jan 16 - 4:20 PM

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One thing I did hear is that Deshaun will be working with Jordan Palmer who is spoken of very highly. Deshaun will interview extremely well and is a high character guy, so his stock will go as high as his arm talent will let him.  

Im a homer, but I do think he'll be a pretty good one.  He is a bit inaccurate at times though, so there is a ceiling there as well that might be a little low for the top overall pick.  I'd be more comfortable at 15 than I would 1 if I'm taking him. 

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On 1/13/2017 at 7:48 PM, Faust said:

He's accurate because of his collegiate completion percentage?  Accuracy is more than completion percentage.  It is placement, making all NFL throws and being able to protect the ball.

- 30 interceptions over the past two years

- deep ball accuracy issues

- ALA Manziel he has a blue-chip WR to bail him out

- ALA Manziel he is from a spread offense that overly relies on the QB's scrambling abilities to soften up the D

Three execs might think he grades at the top of the 1st round but that isn't the case with the rest of the league.

He is getting a nearly unanimous 2nd round grade per Pauline.

Tony Pauline Retweeted Draft Analyst

Shrine Game Draft Buzz: Spoke with several teams during the day & their grade on Deshaun Watson is almost unanimous http://draftanalyst.com/shrine-game-buzz-monday-evening 

http://draftanalyst.com/shrine-game-buzz-monday-evening

January 17, 2017 | Tony Pauline

Shrine Game Buzz: Monday Evening

Here’s the latest news and buzz swirling around the first major pre-draft scouting event of the year as teams have assembled in St Pete, Florida for the annual Shrine Game.

Much has been made as to where Deshaun Watson will end up in the draft.  We presently grade the Clemson quarterback as a second round prospect yet there are reports he may end up as a top 15 choice.  I can tell you after surveying league people during the first day of Shrine practice the overwhelming belief is Watson will receive second round grades in war rooms. 

He’ll grade well in the areas of character and leadership but his accuracy down the field and out to the flanks has been a constant worry.  Teams here also question whether or not Watson can play from the pocket.

I do believe Watson could fit into the late part of round one for a team willing to trade up for his services, ala Teddy Bridgewater.

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On 1/16/2017 at 6:58 AM, WheelsUp said:

Serious question? Who should the Browns take at 1? A RB? Another WR? Maybe a CB? They have a good OLine when healthy and have some pieces on D, the need is QB more than any. They need so many pieces in the big picture, but now? You take a guy who can make things happen, not a project. You do not trade out of that and gamble the one piece you need. You do not settle for a lesser QB when you have seen this guy light up the best D in all of college football. This is just my opinion, but to say their is 100% no chance they wont take him when even now there isnt anyone else really being talked as the #1 must have guy is pretty wreckless with the word "100% certainty."

Myles Garrett has been projected at #1 for about 5 months now.

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He has had the talk by default, not as the unanimous must have player. No one fits that build this year. Thats why I say it is wide open for anyone to go #1 still. This isnt Clowney, Luck, Newton with garrett. No slam dunk #1, just a default #1 at the moment, In my opinion. Garrett is a great player, but everyone I have heard has some reservations about him going #1 still because of the very reason Cleveland needs a QB.

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10 minutes ago, WheelsUp said:

He has had the talk by default, not as the unanimous must have player. No one fits that build this year. Thats why I say it is wide open for anyone to go #1 still. This isnt Clowney, Luck, Newton with garrett. No slam dunk #1, just a default #1 at the moment, In my opinion. Garrett is a great player, but everyone I have heard has some reservations about him going #1 still because of the very reason Cleveland needs a QB.

Confirmation bias.  And you're dead flat wrong, because Garrett is exactly Clowney.  He's a guy that's been highly regarded as a freak talent since high school.  He was a consensus 5 star stud in 2014 and top 5 on all recruiting service and dominant in college. 

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On 1/13/2017 at 7:24 AM, Andy Dufresne said:

 He's not as accurate as Warren Moon and not a pocket passer like Doug Williams.

And he seems to be in the opposite end of the idiot spectrum from Johnny Manziel.

I'd say he kind of reminds me of Mariota but he might not be white enough for you.

I think I've got it!...

Is he Jake Locker?

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IMO, the deficiencies in his game (as outlined by Bracie above) and the strong belief in their analytics make the possibility of the Browns taking him with the top pick non-existent.  From what I've been hearing, here & from the media, Garrett has an "astronomical" grade.  Putting two and two together, they will either take the phenom (Garrett) or trade the pick.  My best guess is that SOMEONE will covet the pick enough to offer a king's ransom and it will be traded.

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2 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Confirmation bias.  And you're dead flat wrong, because Garrett is exactly Clowney.  He's a guy that's been highly regarded as a freak talent since high school.  He was a consensus 5 star stud in 2014 and top 5 on all recruiting service and dominant in college. 

I was going to go with Suh, with allen playing the role of McCoy.  And how well did the Rams do reaching for Sam? 

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2 minutes ago, FUBAR said:

I was going to go with Suh, with allen playing the role of McCoy.  And how well did the Rams do reaching for Sam? 

I was going less with draft comparisons and addressing his comment about Garrett directly, but that works.

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  Browns ran a 3-4 last year and will switch to a 4-3 under new dc gregg williams. They will need new personnel up front for the new scheme and garrett is a perfect fit. 

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On January 14, 2017 at 5:20 PM, petekrum said:

I realize that, but comparing a college QBs percentage to pros is apples and oranges. Guys in college are open by yards while guys in the pros are open by inches.

So how can anyone say that he's not accurate enough if you don't know how he will do in the pros since you can't compare? 

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26 minutes ago, 3nOut said:

So how can anyone say that he's not accurate enough if you don't know how he will do in the pros since you can't compare? 

I'm guessing that folks that scout players for a living actually watch tape and can see pass placement rather than just looking at stats. But I could be wrong. (Ok, not really).

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39 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:

I'm guessing that folks that scout players for a living actually watch tape and can see pass placement rather than just looking at stats. But I could be wrong. (Ok, not really).

:shrug: considering how often the scouts and staffs draft poorly, you might be wrong. 

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9 hours ago, 3nOut said:

So how can anyone say that he's not accurate enough if you don't know how he will do in the pros since you can't compare? 

Every scouting report I've seen questions his accuracy, plus I've probably seen him play a dozen times over the past two years. I've seen him miss wide open WRs, but more damning is passes that are behind wide open men that in the NFL would be knocked down or picked.

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"Still has some holes in his game".

I think I'd fire a scout if he said that. Might as well follow it up by saying, "We'd probably have to hire someone to help him get better."

Thanks, Captain Obvious.

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Have to question this decision.

Wentz' stock elevated after his Senior Bowl performance and after volunteering to throw at the Combine.

Skipping a platform to showcase your skills hints he has something to hide or is afraid of competition.

http://www.fanragsports.com/news/report-deshaun-watson-turns-senior-bowl-invite/

Report: Deshaun Watson turns down Senior Bowl invite

...  While North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz used the Senior Bowl workouts and game as a springboard to make a seismic leap in the draft, en route to a No. 2 selection, Watson did that this season — culminating in Clemson’s rout of Ohio State and last-second victory over previously unbeaten Alabama.

However, Watson may not be a Wentz-level prospect by the time draft weekend comes. 

 

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Wentz had a lot to prove because of the level of competition he played against.  I don't know that I feel this decision would hurt Watson.  Anybody know how many of the top QB prospects have opted out of the senior bowl the last few seasons?  I have no idea because I don't follow that.

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48 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Skipping a platform to showcase your skills hints he has something to hide or is afraid of competition.

:lmao:

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If he wanted to impress Hue Jackson, and felt sure he would, this was his opportunity. 

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He will probably throw at the combine and they'll have pro day at their stadium.  I don't blame him for skipping the senior bowl.  

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