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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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13 hours ago, northern exposure said:

Thanks for the input guys. I had tried to acquire Rosen, Carr or Mariota prior to the start of our rookie draft with no luck. The guy with the 1.07 pick was OTC and offered me Agholor and the 1.07 for my 2019 2.10 pick and my 2020 1st. I was considering countering with my 2019 1.10 and 2019 2.10 and I would take Haskins at 1.07. But I countered with 2019 1.10 pick straight up for Rosen and he accepted it. 

He then took Montgomery at 1.07, AJ Brown went at 1.08 and Haskins went at 1.09.

 

I wonder if he was playing chicken with Haskins and lost him.  This is a perfect example of "you should have traded down instead of reaching for a guy" might play out against you and why I am always perfectly comfortable just taking my guy and not worrying about what others think. 

Personally I would have countered with your 2020 1st for 1.07 and Rosen both.  Draft Haskins 1.07 and then see whoever is still there at 1.10.  Second choice would have been 2.10 and 1.10 for 1.07 for Haskins and if you can finagle a pick back like a 3rd great but w/e.  You can't not have QB in a superflex and Haskins still being on the board is absurd.

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1 hour ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on Ingram in PPR?

I'd say about 1.6. But I am very much of the opinion, that the draft falls off after pick 5. The rookie pick polls sort of back that up, as there was a consensus top-5(in various orders) and then a complete cluster afterwards, in my eyes anyway.

I'd rather have Ingram than Campbell, Hardman, Brown(either), Hockenson, or Murray. He's basically a more proven, and older, Damian Williams, in that he may not be a great long term investment, but could be a league winner this year if things break right.

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3 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on Ingram in PPR?

I gave the 2.4 and Jonnu Smith for him a few weeks ago. 

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3 hours ago, travdogg said:

I'd say about 1.6. But I am very much of the opinion, that the draft falls off after pick 5. The rookie pick polls sort of back that up, as there was a consensus top-5(in various orders) and then a complete cluster afterwards, in my eyes anyway.

I'd rather have Ingram than Campbell, Hardman, Brown(either), Hockenson, or Murray. He's basically a more proven, and older, Damian Williams, in that he may not be a great long term investment, but could be a league winner this year if things break right.

5? I see it as a top 4.  Jacobs, Harry, Sanders, Montgomery. Who's your 5th?

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32 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Wow, cheap. I will hold then lol

I think he’s worth more than that, @Ratbone got away with one there. Like many vet wr2/rb2 I think you can hope for something around 1.07, but I think he probably gains value in season or closer to the start. Maybe a player like Lockett or Godwin?

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24 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

5? I see it as a top 4.  Jacobs, Harry, Sanders, Montgomery. Who's your 5th?

Metcalf, and I think he probably has the highest ceiling of the bunch, although also likely the lowest floor.

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3 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Metcalf, and I think he probably has the highest ceiling of the bunch, although also likely the lowest floor.

I've seen him go in the 6-9 range in a handful of drafts. Generally doesn't slide further though.

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4 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

I wonder if he was playing chicken with Haskins and lost him.  This is a perfect example of "you should have traded down instead of reaching for a guy" might play out against you and why I am always perfectly comfortable just taking my guy and not worrying about what others think. 

Personally I would have countered with your 2020 1st for 1.07 and Rosen both.  Draft Haskins 1.07 and then see whoever is still there at 1.10.  Second choice would have been 2.10 and 1.10 for 1.07 for Haskins and if you can finagle a pick back like a 3rd great but w/e.  You can't not have QB in a superflex and Haskins still being on the board is absurd.

His only QBs were Luck, Josh Allen and Rosen, so I was surprised he gave up Rosen for just 1.10. I think after he took Montgomery at 1.07 he had to be thinking Haskins would fall to him at 1.10. Once Haskins went at 1.09, he immediately flipped 1.10 for a projected late 2020 1st.

I took over an orphaned team and I think the previous owner lucked into the playoffs with smoke and mirrors and realized his lack of QBs in a SF format meant he would not be repeating his success, so he bailed.

In hindsight I probably panicked with my counter offer. I have had zero success talking trade for a QB in this league and once it looked like the Rosen owner might be willing to deal, I rushed my counter offer. I was worried about the guy at 1.09 taking Haskins because he is stockpiling QBs with Jimmy G, Darnold, Mahomes,Watson and now Haskins on his roster. I prefer Rosen to Haskins, so think I did alright with the trade.

I'm new to this league and the SuperFlex format, so I have a lot to learn.

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Wasn't trying to be critical, I think Rosen for 1.10 was a steal too.  But I would have been aggressive (which you still might be able to be) trying to get both, that's all.

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1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

Wasn't trying to be critical, I think Rosen for 1.10 was a steal too.  But I would have been aggressive (which you still might be able to be) trying to get both, that's all.

I was being critical of myself. I am happy with the Rosen trade, but in hindsight I wish I would have been more patient and negotiated a bit with the owner. You were just pointing out options I have already kicked myself for not suggesting and seeing where they went.

How do you feel I still might be able to be aggressive? Any talks I had with the new Haskins owner involving his other QBs, prior to the draft, had his asking price for any of his QBs starting at 3-4 1st round picks.

Edited by northern exposure

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2020 1sts are gold right now.  I have a draft getting ready to start and I plan on offering mine up.  I don't know where you project yours to be, but I was thinking you would offer it for Haskins +.  People are reporting giving up 1.04 for a random 2020.  If the guy got Haskins at 9 he may feel like he's playing with house money, and if a 2020 opens up he may overpay.  I wouldn't sell cheap or desperate though.  At the risk of this becoming an AC post I would suffice it to say I'm looking for top 5 value. 

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1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

2020 1sts are gold right now.  I have a draft getting ready to start and I plan on offering mine up.  I don't know where you project yours to be, but I was thinking you would offer it for Haskins +.  People are reporting giving up 1.04 for a random 2020.  If the guy got Haskins at 9 he may feel like he's playing with house money, and if a 2020 opens up he may overpay.  I wouldn't sell cheap or desperate though.  At the risk of this becoming an AC post I would suffice it to say I'm looking for top 5 value. 

Thanks. I appreciate the input.

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2 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

2020 1sts are gold right now.  I have a draft getting ready to start and I plan on offering mine up.  I don't know where you project yours to be, but I was thinking you would offer it for Haskins +.  People are reporting giving up 1.04 for a random 2020.  If the guy got Haskins at 9 he may feel like he's playing with house money, and if a 2020 opens up he may overpay.  I wouldn't sell cheap or desperate though.  At the risk of this becoming an AC post I would suffice it to say I'm looking for top 5 value. 

After Jacobs/harry/Montgomery/Sanders a random 2020 1st is a lot more valuable.  Even if a team looks good things happen.  I'd easily take 1.10 in 2020 over whoever is available at 1.05 this year.  Anything better is pure gravy.

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11 hours ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

After Jacobs/harry/Montgomery/Sanders a random 2020 1st is a lot more valuable.  Even if a team looks good things happen.  I'd easily take 1.10 in 2020 over whoever is available at 1.05 this year.  Anything better is pure gravy. 

I don't agree at all but you'll note I didn't suggest trading 2020 1st for a single pick this year.  And this is a SF we are discussing, so Haskins ranks right about 1.03 here, and my suggestion was to offer it for Haskins+. 

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14 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Who would most of you rather have this year & beyond in PPR; Evans or D. Adams?

this year, Adams, beyond, Evans 

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30 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Who would most of you rather have this year & beyond in PPR; Evans or D. Adams?

Evans. I think he will be the #1 Wr this year. 

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13 minutes ago, Ratbone said:

Evans. I think he will be the #1 Wr this year. 

I’m also really excited about Evans in Bruce arians scheme. 

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Can I get  price  check on Sammy Watkins in terms of present or future picks?

Worth more or less than new dynasty darling Mecole Hardman?

Always have a hard time valuing Sammy...this year seems as tough as ever.

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2 hours ago, Arodin said:

Can I get  price  check on Sammy Watkins in terms of present or future picks?

Worth more or less than new dynasty darling Mecole Hardman?

Always have a hard time valuing Sammy...this year seems as tough as ever.

I’m doing a dispersal right now and he went before Corey Davis, Allen Robinson, and rashad penny. I guess there are some people that really like his opportunity. 

*also before pick 1.05

Edited by Snorkelson

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49 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

I’m doing a dispersal right now and he went before Corey Davis, Allen Robinson, and rashad penny. I guess there are some people that really like his opportunity. 

*also before pick 1.05

Yeah, gross.  (Besides ARob, those two are equally overrated.)

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41 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

Yeah, gross.  (Besides ARob, those two are equally overrated.)

Watkins Davis penny Arob what is this an overrated contest?

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1 minute ago, northern exposure said:

Price check on Darnold, Newton and Prescott in SuperFlex?

Darnold should command top10 QB prices, probably not top5 but high enough that it would require someone of note.  My guess would be someone near the 30's-40's in startups.  A top tiered rookie pick (there are none this year), or multiple rookie picks.  Otherwise I think he's worth holding onto.  

Newton scares me a bit more with his shoulder and the way he plays so I'm a bit lower on him.  Wouldn't blame anyone for cashing out for what they can get, but his value is probably lower because of all that and doesn't fetch the high price he probably should.  ADP wise I'd say someone in the 50's would possibly get me to sell him but again it might not be worth it.  That's roughly a top5 rookie pick to me.  

Prescott I like a lot but he's a QB2 in superflex and not a QB1.  I'd pay someone in the 80's or later I think and I'd put him around early 2nd.  

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1 hour ago, northern exposure said:

Price check on Darnold, Newton and Prescott in SuperFlex?

DLF has superflex rankings and they have Darnold at 44, Newton at 21, and Prescott at 46.

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1 hour ago, thriftyrocker said:

DLF has superflex rankings and they have Darnold at 44, Newton at 21, and Prescott at 46.

I don’t play superflex at all but how are starting QBs ranked so low below 32? Prescott is really worse that 14 backup QBs? I must be reading that wrong. 

ETA: must be overall ranking I guess. Duh. 

Edited by joey

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To the folks that prefer Adams over Evans in PPR, what would have to be added to the Evans side for you to trade Adams? The Evans owner really wants Adams from me, but he's not bridging the gap enough by offering me either Gus Edwards or Breida with Evans.

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15 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

Yeah, gross.  (Besides ARob, those two are equally overrated.)

Corey Davis is pretty overrated himself.

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12 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Darnold should command top10 QB prices, probably not top5 but high enough that it would require someone of note.  My guess would be someone near the 30's-40's in startups.  A top tiered rookie pick (there are none this year), or multiple rookie picks.  Otherwise I think he's worth holding onto.  

Newton scares me a bit more with his shoulder and the way he plays so I'm a bit lower on him.  Wouldn't blame anyone for cashing out for what they can get, but his value is probably lower because of all that and doesn't fetch the high price he probably should.  ADP wise I'd say someone in the 50's would possibly get me to sell him but again it might not be worth it.  That's roughly a top5 rookie pick to me.  

Prescott I like a lot but he's a QB2 in superflex and not a QB1.  I'd pay someone in the 80's or later I think and I'd put him around early 2nd.  

Darnold showed potential last year but he certainly has not produced enough to be considered a top 10 QB.  I would put him somewhere between QB 12 and QB16.

For comp value I would put him in the range of Tyler Boyd or Kenyan Drake.

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9 minutes ago, az_prof said:

Darnold showed potential last year but he certainly has not produced enough to be considered a top 10 QB.  I would put him somewhere between QB 12 and QB16.

For comp value I would put him in the range of Tyler Boyd or Kenyan Drake.

The only guys I can for sure rank ahead of Darnold are this list:

Pat Mahomes, Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, and Carson Wentz.  

Other possibles would include:

Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and then if you think their rushing is sustainable, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson

That's 6 for sure's ahead of him, 6 that are questionable, at least to me.  There's a very real possibility that he settles in as a Stafford/Cousins/Dak kind of QB that sits in the middle of the road, but there's no point in selling him for that if you're the owner.  Stafford had a few elite seasons, Cousins has some top10 finishes to his name as well.  Darnold has age on his side and showed he belongs with god awful weapons last year.  He should be viewed as a top10 QB in superflex.  

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47 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

To the folks that prefer Adams over Evans in PPR, what would have to be added to the Evans side for you to trade Adams? The Evans owner really wants Adams from me, but he's not bridging the gap enough by offering me either Gus Edwards or Breida with Evans.

This seems like something to discuss in the AC forum and not here. They are close enough in value that it could be a straight up swap trade

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9 minutes ago, gabes1919 said:

This seems like something to discuss in the AC forum and not here. They are close enough in value that it could be a straight up swap trade

I prefer Evans to Adams myself but do see this as a "six of one, half dozen of the other" kind of situation.

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24 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

The only guys I can for sure rank ahead of Darnold are this list:

Pat Mahomes, Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, and Carson Wentz.  

Other possibles would include:

Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and then if you think their rushing is sustainable, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson

That's 6 for sure's ahead of him, 6 that are questionable, at least to me.  There's a very real possibility that he settles in as a Stafford/Cousins/Dak kind of QB that sits in the middle of the road, but there's no point in selling him for that if you're the owner.  Stafford had a few elite seasons, Cousins has some top10 finishes to his name as well.  Darnold has age on his side and showed he belongs with god awful weapons last year.  He should be viewed as a top10 QB in superflex.  

I don't disagree with your valuation, but wanted to chime in and say it's the perfect time to sell Darnold in a superflex because of the same reasons. I think the fact that QB are so hard to replace makes it very much apropos to swap him for a low QB1. Dak is exactly the type of QB you should sell in 1QB, and exactly the type of QB you should buy in Superflex. That is, because he is acquirable, gives reliable good to great production, and still has a long career ahead of him. Darnold is not guaranteed to be a long term NFL starter yet, and if you don't think his chance of being "perennial top 5" elite is high, i would move him for someone who can be depended on. The difference between Dak/Cousins/Stafford and Tannehill/Bortles is huge for your team's success. The only thing worse than not having 2 QB in Superflex is perennially blowing high draft picks on mediocre QB prospects.

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59 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

The only guys I can for sure rank ahead of Darnold are this list:

Pat Mahomes, Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, and Carson Wentz.  

Other possibles would include:

Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and then if you think their rushing is sustainable, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson

That's 6 for sure's ahead of him, 6 that are questionable, at least to me.  There's a very real possibility that he settles in as a Stafford/Cousins/Dak kind of QB that sits in the middle of the road, but there's no point in selling him for that if you're the owner.  Stafford had a few elite seasons, Cousins has some top10 finishes to his name as well.  Darnold has age on his side and showed he belongs with god awful weapons last year.  He should be viewed as a top10 QB in superflex.  

Would you take Darnold over Kyler Murray?

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17 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

I’m doing a dispersal right now and he went before Corey Davis, Allen Robinson, and rashad penny. I guess there are some people that really like his opportunity. 

*also before pick 1.05

I'd take Watkins over 1.5, or Penny. He's still only 26, and has the best QB, and situation of his career. 

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22 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

this year, Adams, beyond, Evans 

Why Evans beyond? He and Adams are roughly the same age, and Evans QB is unlikely to ever be better than Adams.

I prefer Adams either way.

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2 hours ago, Zow said:

Would you take Darnold over Kyler Murray?

I have them ranked back to back currently at QB9 and 10.  Kyler gets the edge for me, but that might be a bold stance.  I don't really do eval's of QB's so I defer to people who know what to look for and those people seem to be rather high on him.  He's a better version of Lamar Jackson to me, in what seems to be a better offense with better weapons.  

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19 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

  Kyler gets the edge for me, but that might be a bold stance.

It would be bold if you felt otherwise.

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I have Darnold and Murray close too, but the tie-breaker for me is Murray's rushing potential. 

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So here some value discussion on Darnold and Kyler.  I had 1.2 in a 2qb rookie/FA draft. Jacobs went first so Kyler was obvious pick. After some back and forth the best offer I got was Darnold, Gesicki, and Lesean McCoy.  Would up turning it down. 

 

For comparison, was also offered:

1.3 and Marvin Jones

1.5 and 1.10

Kirk Cousins

Golladay and 1.5 

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6 minutes ago, DAG said:

I have Darnold and Murray close too, but the tie-breaker for me is Murray's rushing potential. 

Yeah I think that's what separates them in a 4 pt. passing TD league. 

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What are folks with rebuilding or non-contending teams doing with David Johnson? I just traded him away in a TE premium for OJ Howard (as part of a larger deal) on a team that I need to rebuild. I actually expect him to do well this season, mainly because I expect him to be involved in the passing game again. But he'll be 28 before the regular season ends and it feels like this year is a good chance to get some exit value.

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12 minutes ago, DAG said:

What are folks with rebuilding or non-contending teams doing with David Johnson? I just traded him away in a TE premium for OJ Howard (as part of a larger deal) on a team that I need to rebuild. I actually expect him to do well this season, mainly because I expect him to be involved in the passing game again. But he'll be 28 before the regular season ends and it feels like this year is a good chance to get some exit value.

I moved him earlier in the year for the 1.07 this year and a 2020 late first (pretty stacked team).

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Personally I have Kyler >>> over Darnold.  They are going to sling it a lot.  He's super accurate, has intriguing weapons and running game support, and big rushing potential.  Darnold seems super meh to me.

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47 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

Personally I have Kyler >>> over Darnold.  They are going to sling it a lot.  He's super accurate, has intriguing weapons and running game support, and big rushing potential.  Darnold seems super meh to me.

I find the love for Darnold perplexing. I get that he was a hyped prospect and draft high but he really didn't show much in his rookie season, in fantasy or reality. He wasn't even a QB2 last year. I guess plenty of people disagree with that because everyone seems to be back on the "Darnold is great" train (after a few jumped off his last year of college). I view his ceiling as somewhere on the Cousins/Dalton spectrum and I'm not even sure he'll get to that level.

From a fantasy perspective I just don't see why you'd bother with him, given that the league is now flooded with good starting QB options. Maybe he takes a leap this year, but I don't see any reason to have faith in that unless you thought he was a can't miss prospect to begin with (and I certainly didn't). I just don't see a scenario where he's a consistent QB1 for your fantasy team over the next few years.

As for Kyler vs Darnold, I don't even think that's a conversation. 

Edited by RushHour
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1 minute ago, RushHour said:

I find the love for Darnold perplexing. I get that he was a hyped prospect and draft high but he really didn't show much in his rookie season, in fantasy or reality. He wasn't even a QB2 last year. I guess plenty of people disagree with that because everyone seems to be back on the "Darnold is great" train (after a few jumped off his last year of college). I view his ceiling as somewhere on the Cousins/Dalton spectrum and I'm not even sure he'll get to that level.

From a fantasy perspective I just don't see why you'd bother with him, given that the league is now flooded with good starting QB options. Maybe he takes a leap this year, but I don't see any reason to have faith in that unless you thought he was a can't miss prospect to begin with (and I certainly didn't). I just don't see a scenario where he's a consistent QB1 for your fantasy team over the next few years.

Well said and I couldn't agree more.  Even in dynasty I'd much rather have a boring old vet like Rivers, Ben, or Brees.  I'd even take Garappolo over him.

Dalton ceiling sounds about right to me.  Cousins as a bright side.

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I don't plan to add any leagues in the coming years, but here are some startup values I like based on these free dynasty rankings. I'd list more rookies in general, but this site seems extremely conservative on prospects, to the point where their rankings of people like Jacobs and Sanders don't reflect the market reality.

 

RB31 Kenyan Drake - Top 15 PPR RB finish last year and even though he's not built to be the guy and his own coaches don't seem to trust him, he's the best offensive weapon on the Dolphins and a guy with standout big play skills and versatility. If you can get him at RB3 prices, you've done very well.

RB72 Alexander Mattison - Dalvin Cook is arguably one of the most overrated RBs in dynasty right now, and while I do think he has a chance to thrive, Mattison looms as a potential challenger if Cook isn't able to improve in his second year back from injury. Mattison doesn't project to be a special back, but is a 220+ pounder with three down ability. Decent upside at a very low entry price.

WR17 DJ Moore - It's hard to argue that he should be significantly higher than this since the WR depth is quite good and Moore's owners are likely to demand a steep price, but he flashed a high ceiling last year and this might be the last season when he's not untouchable. I wouldn't pay WR1 value for him because there's little upside at that cost, but if you can get him as your WR2 then I think he makes a lot of sense.

WR23 Allen Robinson - In the last calendar year he went from being overrated to underrated. His numbers really weren't that awful in 2018 despite a new team, a green QB, and limited opportunities. He's the best receiver on the Bears and if they dial up a few more passes next season then it's not tough to envision him as a 1000+ yard guy again. Don't put yourself in a position to depend on him because he's totally unreliable, but at a WR3 cost there's a solid risk/reward value.

WR36 Tyreek Hill - He's an idiot and a scumbag, but we know what he can do on the football field. If you don't have any ethical qualms about rooting for him then you might as well toss out some lowball offers because his PPG ceiling is something that's very rare and difficult to find.

WR49 Deebo Samuel - Probably the best WR on the Niners out of the box. He isn't an ELITE prospect, but he's pretty good and his play style means they can get the ball to him in a variety of ways. I've been taking him in a lot of rookie drafts and he's a player who would also be a sneaky option in best ball redraft leagues.

WR76 John Ross - I've always had my doubts about him and so far he looks like a bust, but this is just so cheap for a young player with a high ceiling who may yet figure it out. The risk at a WR76 value is so low that you've essentially lost nothing if he flops.

TE17 Mark Andrews & TE24 Hayden Hurst - I own both he and Andrews in numerous leagues and like both of them at their current ADP level. Despite Andrews having the better rookie year, I think Hurst is the better athlete. He was one of my favorite players in last year's draft and has a top 10 TE ceiling.

TE34 Tyler Eifert - He's never healthy, but the ceiling of a 100% Eifert is a top 3-4 receiving TE in the league, and that's well worth a shot.

2019 ROOKIE TE class - I like quite a few of them and most of them present solid value in drafts, especially the day 2 guys. When other people are throwing darts at JAG level rookie RBs and WRs, I'd consider stashing one or two of these guys and hoping that you hit a Cooley/Kelce/Ertz. Their talent level relative to their ADP represents a good value, even factoring in that TE is a devalued position is most leagues.

Mildly intrigued by: Rashaad Penny, Jaylen Samuels, Robert Foster, Michael Gallup, Quincy Enunwa, and Daniel Jones simply because he's getting dissed so hard on ADP for a top 10 overall pick

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5 hours ago, DAG said:

What are folks with rebuilding or non-contending teams doing with David Johnson? I just traded him away in a TE premium for OJ Howard (as part of a larger deal) on a team that I need to rebuild. I actually expect him to do well this season, mainly because I expect him to be involved in the passing game again. But he'll be 28 before the regular season ends and it feels like this year is a good chance to get some exit value.

Disgustingly bad trade. A top-5-ish RB for a TE with bad hands on a team with literally dozens of other options. 

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