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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)

Who are you buying and selling?

I’m buying Henderson, Robinson, Lamb, Terry, and Gibson.

Henderson and Akers are closer in talent than their price indicates. I’m sold on Robinson. Lamb is expensive, but I still like him more than the market I think (adding a late first to Mike Evans is a huge win, for example). Same with Terry; I’d be looking to “downgrade” from Brown or Juju. Might be able to get a late first without having to drop a tier. Gibson has a ridiculous upside and opportunity to drive up his value; I’d try getting something on top of him in exchange for Swift or Dobbins. Push comes to shove, I might settle for 1:1. I’d happily add to Akers for him. 

I’m selling Akers, Kelley, Higbee, and Ridley. 

Akers mentioned above. Kelley has looked like absolute garbage; I’d try swapping him for Moss. Higbee isn’t getting enough targets to justify his current value; sell him while his 3x TD game is still propping up his PPG. I like Ridley, but the market is placing too much emphasis on a 3 game stretch, IMO. I’d add a bit to him for Hill or Metcalf, or see what I can get on top of someone like Terry, Lamb, or Godwin.

 
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Any word on his status for playing tonight?  I want to run him out there since the other Bucs are down but sure don't want to take the 0 for the spot.  

 
Concept Coop said:
Who are you buying and selling?

I’m buying Henderson, Robinson, Lamb, Terry, and Gibson.

Henderson and Akers are closer in talent than their price indicates. I’m sold on Robinson. Lamb is expensive, but I still like him more than the market I think (adding a late first to Mike Evans is a huge win, for example). Same with Terry; I’d be looking to “downgrade” from Brown or Juju. Might be able to get a late first without having to drop a tier. Gibson has a ridiculous upside and opportunity to drive up his value; I’d try getting something on top of him in exchange for Swift or Dobbins. Push comes to shove, I might settle for 1:1. I’d happily add to Akers for him. 

I’m selling Akers, Kelley, Higbee, and Ridley. 

Akers mentioned above. Kelley has looked like absolute garbage; I’d try swapping him for Moss. Higbee isn’t getting enough targets to justify his current value; sell him while his 3x TD game is still propping up his PPG. I like Ridley, but the market is placing too much emphasis on a 3 game stretch, IMO. I’d add a bit to him for Hill or Metcalf, or see what I can get on top of someone like Terry, Lamb, or Godwin.
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I’m intrigued by Damien Harris, but idk whether to buy or sell. 

Sell me on buying Darrell Henderson. 

 
Concept Coop said:
Who are you buying and selling?

I’m buying Henderson, Robinson, Lamb, Terry, and Gibson.

Henderson and Akers are closer in talent than their price indicates. I’m sold on Robinson. Lamb is expensive, but I still like him more than the market I think (adding a late first to Mike Evans is a huge win, for example). Same with Terry; I’d be looking to “downgrade” from Brown or Juju. Might be able to get a late first without having to drop a tier. Gibson has a ridiculous upside and opportunity to drive up his value; I’d try getting something on top of him in exchange for Swift or Dobbins. Push comes to shove, I might settle for 1:1. I’d happily add to Akers for him. 

I’m selling Akers, Kelley, Higbee, and Ridley. 

Akers mentioned above. Kelley has looked like absolute garbage; I’d try swapping him for Moss. Higbee isn’t getting enough targets to justify his current value; sell him while his 3x TD game is still propping up his PPG. I like Ridley, but the market is placing too much emphasis on a 3 game stretch, IMO. I’d add a bit to him for Hill or Metcalf, or see what I can get on top of someone like Terry, Lamb, or Godwin.
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Wait what?  You're offering Evans and a 1st for Lamb?

 
Hankmoody said:
Wait what?  You're offering Evans and a 1st for Lamb?
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Late, absolutely. There’s a tier break for me. I’m sold on Lamb and a late 1st isn’t much to pay for 6 years. Lamb is going be 22 coming off of a 1,000 yard season, tied to Dak, and is going to get the huge value boost that Cooper and Juju got. They were both first round startup picks. He’ll go at least a round ahead of Evans in offseason startups.

 
Concept Coop said:
Late, absolutely. There’s a tier break for me. I’m sold on Lamb and a late 1st isn’t much to pay for 6 years. Lamb is going be 22 coming off of a 1,000 yard season, tied to Dak, and is going to get the huge value boost that Cooper and Juju got. They were both first round startup picks. He’ll go at least a round ahead of Evans in offseason startups.
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I think Hank's point was that you should be receiving a late 1st along with Lamb to take Evans from you.  That's a deal that I think most Lamb owners would admit is fair, but in a worst case scenario you could make it 1:1.

 
Gurley isn’t worth a first, but I added him to Evans to get Lamb last week. I can’t imagine any Lamb owner accepting Evans straight up. I agree he will be at least a round ahead of Evans in startups next year

 
tangfoot said:
I think Hank's point was that you should be receiving a late 1st along with Lamb to take Evans from you.  That's a deal that I think most Lamb owners would admit is fair, but in a worst case scenario you could make it 1:1.
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I know that was his point, I just disagree. Lamb is a tier ahead of Evans for me. 

In this very thread I said similar things about Juju after watching what happened with Cooper. Lamb is going to have a sub-20 ADP. Maybe first round. 
 

northern exposure said:
This surprised me as well. Also,Concept Coop suggesting he would want something on top of Lamb or Godwin for Ridley.
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Dynasty Twitter is crazy about Ridley. I don’t know how likely it is I can get something on top of Lamb or Godwin in my leagues, but I know plenty value him as top 3-5. So I’d try.

 
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Yeah I agree with @Concept Coop on this one.  Kind of goes back to the conversation I was having with someone in @Zyphros's dynasty rankings thread where they were saying many of the ranks were a major overreaction to 4 weeks of play.

Is "buying high" on a guy like Lamb at late 2nd round startup value really buying high if he's a 1st round startup pick next offseason?

Lamb/Evans seems like getting out ahead of a major and somewhat obvious value change that is likely to occur.  Lamb came into the league with a ton of hype, has exceeded the expectations of even his biggest fans, and is tied to a great offense for the foreseeable future.  In the offseason when those kind of guys are at their peak value he will be almost impossible to acquire.

Meanwhile at that time Evans will be a 28 year old receiver likely coming off his worst year yardage wise and possibly with no clarity on who his QB will be going forward.  Those are exactly the kind of guys that have very little value in the offseason.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if by next offseason Evans isn't even considered on the same planet as Lamb from a value perspective, and it's not like Evans is getting you any immediate production advantage in the meantime.

 
JFS171 said:
I’m intrigued by Damien Harris, but idk whether to buy or sell. 

Sell me on buying Darrell Henderson. 
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Harris looked really good, but NE  does scare me. I think it’s certainly worth kicking the tires. I’d have to think about what I’d pay.

What Henderson does well he does very well. Elite burst and a nice center of gravity. He obviously has some holes. But so does Akers. I gave Akers a lot of slack because FSU’s offensive line was so bad. I reached for him in a startup this offseason. Then he looked completely lost week 1. It’s only week 1 and I’m not suggesting anything is set in stone, but his vision and instincts are questionable. Then Henderson looked great for 2 weeks. I just don’t see why Akers should have triple the value. Given the money line, I’m taking the underdog. 

 
Thanks, @Concept Coop. Your post and the resulting discussion is what this thread should be about, much moreso than a lot of the borderline dynasty trade thread and ACF posts.

This discussion motivated me to go send several offers to the Lamb owner in one of my leagues (giving him a choice of several). Fingers crossed.

 
Concept Coop said:
Harris looked really good, but NE  does scare me. I think it’s certainly worth kicking the tires. I’d have to think about what I’d pay.

What Henderson does well he does very well. Elite burst and a nice center of gravity. He obviously has some holes. But so does Akers. I gave Akers a lot of slack because FSU’s offensive line was so bad. I reached for him in a startup this offseason. Then he looked completely lost week 1. It’s only week 1 and I’m not suggesting anything is set in stone, but his vision and instincts are questionable. Then Henderson looked great for 2 weeks. I just don’t see why Akers should have triple the value. Given the money line, I’m taking the underdog. 
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I never understood the Akers hype.  I always thought he got waaaaaay too much of a pass for his production based on the FSU stuff.  I mean when there are guys being drafted near him in the NFL draft who outperformed Akers in college while playing for teams like Boston College and Vanderbilt the whole "but FSU is a bad team" stuff seemed kind of weak to me.

The only difference between KeShawn Vaughn and Cam Akers was that Cam Akers was a more highly rated high school prospect 4 years ago.  Vaughn played on an even worse team against even tougher competition and had basically identical numbers to Akers in college.

 
If I didn’t own both everywhere, I’d see what Marquise Brown and Miles Sanders cost. I think Sanders has been banged up and bogged down by the horrific morass that is the Eagles offense right now. Perception seems to be his value is down significantly from the draft, but dynasty wise I think he’s still an RB1 and possibly an elite one in PPR. 

Brown has emerged as a more complete receiver this year, but he hasn’t blown up yet, and there’s still a narrative that Jackson can’t throw outside the numbers or deep. To me, the explosion is only a matter of time, and he’s raised his floor with the expanded route tree. We just seem to have gotten a month of floor games with no explosion yet. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I never understood the Akers hype.  I always thought he got waaaaaay too much of a pass for his production based on the FSU stuff.  I mean when there are guys being drafted near him in the NFL draft who outperformed Akers in college while playing for teams like Boston College and Vanderbilt the whole "but FSU is a bad team" stuff seemed kind of weak to me.

The only difference between KeShawn Vaughn and Cam Akers was that Cam Akers was a more highly rated high school prospect 4 years ago.  Vaughn played on an even worse team against even tougher competition and had basically identical numbers to Akers in college.
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Akers only needed to grind out 1000 yards rushing and catch 40 balls to nearly double his value. I thought there was a solid chance he’d do that. I had concerns as well, but it looked like a great spot for him. And a lot guys I trust liked him. Not to sound like I’m writing him off. I’m not, and if his price drops enough I’ll buy.

 
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Concept Coop said:
Akers only needed to grind out 1000 yards rushing and catch 40 balls to nearly double his value. I thought there was a solid chance he’d do that. I had concerns as well, but it looked like a great spot for him. And a lot guys I trust liked him. Not to sound like I’m writing him off. I’m not, and if his price drops enough I’ll buy.
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I haven’t gotten the impression his price has dropped much at all.

 
For a barometer ... I just asked the Lamb owner for a price check in one league and was asked for Hollywood and a 2021 1st (mid-late probably).

 
As for a sell ... I’d love to get a big game from Gaskin and be able cash in as I think he’s a placeholder for them, especially with all the draft capital they’re going to have in 2021. Problem is nobody wants to buy for more than a 3, and random mid-late 3s aren’t worth a ton.

 
JFS171 said:
I haven’t gotten the impression his price has dropped much at all.
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Same, which doesn’t make sense to me. He was the only draftable Rams RB coming into the season in redraft leagues. Now it’s obvious that the Rams meant what they said about rotating all 3 guys, and Henderson showed major signs of life. He’s not the same asset he was a month ago, in my opinion. 

 
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Concept Coop said:
I know that was his point, I just disagree. Lamb is a tier ahead of Evans for me. 

In this very thread I said similar things about Juju after watching what happened with Cooper. Lamb is going to have a sub-20 ADP. Maybe first round. 
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I don’t disagree with your valuation, but that’s not wheee the market is yet. Paying a-tier-ahead-of-Evans prices today is just bad business

 
JFS171 said:
As for a sell ... I’d love to get a big game from Gaskin and be able cash in as I think he’s a placeholder for them, especially with all the draft capital they’re going to have in 2021. Problem is nobody wants to buy for more than a 3, and random mid-late 3s aren’t worth a ton.
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I’m in the same boat. He’s worth more than a 3rd to me as a depth piece and nobody is paying a 2nd. He remind me of Tashard Choice. A nice piece to have in your RB room, but not starting material.

 
Concept Coop said:
Ryan McDowell’s polls show Moore as more valuable than Evans and Lamb SMASHING Moore. Thousands of votes. Ceedee Lamb is more valuable than Mike Evans. And he should be.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMc23/status/1313292460009943041
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Point taken, but I think these in-the-moment polls are flawed for the simple reason that you listed above. 
 

A>B. C>>B

Therefore C>A

This works in math but not necessarily in dynasty rankings. Do you believe that all of the players who scored higher than the 46% that Evans received should be ranked ahead of him?

Mizelle’s October mock drafts have Evans at WR9, ahead of Juju, AJ, Terry, Lamb and Golladay

It’s a smaller data set, but just as relevant, IMO 

 
tangfoot said:
Point taken, but I think these in-the-moment polls are flawed for the simple reason that you listed above. 
 

A>B. C>>B

Therefore C>A

This works in math but not necessarily in dynasty rankings. Do you believe that all of the players who scored higher than the 46% that Evans received should be ranked ahead of him?

Mizelle’s October mock drafts have Evans at WR9, ahead of Juju, AJ, Terry, Lamb and Golladay

It’s a smaller data set, but just as relevant, IMO 
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Moore beat Evans 54-46, not the other way around.

It's A>B>C so A>C here.

Lamb outvoted Moore and Moore outvoted Evans.  Given that I think it's pretty safe to say that Lamb would outvote Evans if that poll were added.

 
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I definitely have Lamb ahead of Evans in dynasty. For the rest of this season, I still prefer Evans but not by all that much - maybe 1 ppg. And Lamb is a rookie who is 5.5 years younger than Evans, which means that you should get many more years out of him and he could have a higher ceiling than what we've seen so far from either of them.

 
Concept Coop said:
Who are you buying and selling?
Click to expand...
Good topic, this is how the thread should have gone instead of one bigass AC collection.

I'm buying Metcalf.  I don't care the price, I'm buying, because he'll be more next year.  I'm with you on Lamb, he's the next top 5 WR, but I'm not with you in paying that price for him yet.

I'm selling Courtland Sutton for whatever I get.  By the time he gets back into the lineup next year Jeudy may have a stranglehold on the #1 targets.  It was a big enough risk when Sutton had equal PT but now it's catastrophic.  Plus Hamler isn't going to go away and Fant is a stud so I just don't think that offense will be big enough to maintain value on them all and I see Sutton as the odd man out simply due to timing.  He might maintain 1000/9 but I'm not waiting 11 months for that. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Moore beat Evans 54-46, not the other way around.

It's A>B>C so A>C here.

Lamb outvoted Moore and Moore outvoted Evans.  Given that I think it's pretty safe to say that Lamb would outvote Evans if that poll were added.
Click to expand...
Do you like apples or peaches?

54% say apples

Do you like apples or bananas?

84% say apples

Do you like peaches or bananas?

There’s no way to extrapolate that from the above data because we never directly compared the two fruits. 

 
tangfoot said:
Do you like apples or peaches?

54% say apples

Do you like apples or bananas?

84% say apples

Do you like peaches or bananas?

There’s no way to extrapolate that from the above data because we never directly compared the two fruits. 
Click to expand...
You still haven't read the polls right I can't tell if you're trolling or not.

 
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Hankmoody said:
Good topic, this is how the thread should have gone instead of one bigass AC collection.

I'm buying Metcalf.  I don't care the price, I'm buying, because he'll be more next year.  I'm with you on Lamb, he's the next top 5 WR, but I'm not with you in paying that price for him yet.

I'm selling Courtland Sutton for whatever I get.  By the time he gets back into the lineup next year Jeudy may have a stranglehold on the #1 targets.  It was a big enough risk when Sutton had equal PT but now it's catastrophic.  Plus Hamler isn't going to go away and Fant is a stud so I just don't think that offense will be big enough to maintain value on them all and I see Sutton as the odd man out simply due to timing.  He might maintain 1000/9 but I'm not waiting 11 months for that. 
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I would like to acquire Golladay and/or AJ Brown, but having a hard time deciding what a reasonable offer would be. 

 
What’s the thoughts on Diggs right now?  His value has increased substantially since this offseason when folks were panicked over landing in Buffalo. Is a 26 YO (27 in November) Diggs a WR1 in dynasty?  He’s currently WR5 in total points and WR7 in points per game in my PPR dynasty league. 

So do we have 2-3 years of peak here or do you sell now on that WR1 value?

 
ZWK said:
I definitely have Lamb ahead of Evans in dynasty. For the rest of this season, I still prefer Evans but not by all that much - maybe 1 ppg. And Lamb is a rookie who is 5.5 years younger than Evans, which means that you should get many more years out of him and he could have a higher ceiling than what we've seen so far from either of them.
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I would LOVE to see your updated dynasty rankings. 

 
JFS171 said:
What’s the thoughts on Diggs right now?  His value has increased substantially since this offseason when folks were panicked over landing in Buffalo. Is a 26 YO (27 in November) Diggs a WR1 in dynasty?  He’s currently WR5 in total points and WR7 in points per game in my PPR dynasty league. 

So do we have 2-3 years of peak here or do you sell now on that WR1 value?
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If you’re a contender, sell him in the off-season. 
If you’re rebuilding, sell him now. 
Either way, he should be moved before next season when his value will begin to crater 

 
Concept Coop said:
You're arguing that a substantial number of voters could prefer Moore to Evans and Lamb to Moore but Evans to Lamb?
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There were 800 fewer votes in one poll, so it is absolutely possible. 
My argument all along is that you cannot extrapolate the conclusion based on the flawed reasoning that A>B>C

 
tangfoot said:
If you’re a contender, sell him in the off-season. 
If you’re rebuilding, sell him now. 
Either way, he should be moved before next season when his value will begin to crater 
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See I’ve always thought Diggs was a stud and just wasn’t getting WR1 volume due to Theilen being on his team. Now he’s the guy ... tough to sell that.

Here’s an interesting comparison:

Lamb>=Diggs>>Marquise Brown 

Do I have that right?

 
Concept Coop said:
You're arguing that a substantial number of voters could prefer Moore to Evans and Lamb to Moore but Evans to Lamb?
Click to expand...
They aren't necessarily the same populations though.  This is how logical fallacies are born.  If Tom and Jerry both prefer Moore to Evans but Bonnie and Clyde both prefer Lamb to Moore that provides no correlation to how any of those people feel about Lamb vs. Evans.  Moore vs. Evans has just 1300 replies while Moore vs. Lamb has 2100.  That's more than a 50% variance in population. 

 
Hankmoody said:
They aren't necessarily the same populations though.  This is how logical fallacies are born.  If Tom and Jerry both prefer Moore to Evans but Bonnie and Clyde both prefer Lamb to Moore that provides no correlation to how any of those people feel about Lamb vs. Evans.  Moore vs. Evans has just 1300 replies while Moore vs. Lamb has 2100.  That's more than a 50% variance in population. 
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The samples don't need to mirror each other to be valuable. If anyone has better data I'd love to see them.

 
DropKick said:
Value check on Jonathan Taylor?  WR decimated team with injuries/COVID.
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I don't agree with it, but it's likely that one owner in your league views him as a top 5 startup pick. You should be able to get just about anyone you want for him. WR is odd right now, as the top guys are all getting older. I'd have a hard time ranking the top 5 in a vacuum. But I'd start with your favorite and ask for a bit more than that. You might be able to get Thomas (or Adams or Hill or Metcalf or...) and a 1st.

 
Concept Coop said:
I don't agree with it, but it's likely that one owner in your league views him as a top 5 startup pick. You should be able to get just about anyone you want for him. WR is odd right now, as the top guys are all getting older. I'd have a hard time ranking the top 5 in a vacuum. But I'd start with your favorite and ask for a bit more than that. You might be able to get Thomas (or Adams or Hill or Metcalf or...) and a 1st.
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Lamb?

 
JFS171 said:
See I’ve always thought Diggs was a stud and just wasn’t getting WR1 volume due to Theilen being on his team. Now he’s the guy ... tough to sell that.

Here’s an interesting comparison:

Lamb>=Diggs>>Marquise Brown 

Do I have that right?
Click to expand...
I agree with both parts of your post.  BUF payed a premium to obtain Diggs and brought him in to do exactly what he has been doing.  I don't see any reason to believe his value will crater anytime soon.

 
RC94 said:
I agree with both parts of your post.  BUF payed a premium to obtain Diggs and brought him in to do exactly what he has been doing.  I don't see any reason to believe his value will crater anytime soon.
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His value will crater as people begin to panic on age.  This is premium buy territory for contenders.  Look at Julio, that guy has been "old" and on an old discount for 3-4 year now.  And it took until this year (maybe) for it to come to fruition.  I am all in on him at this point.

 
JFS171 said:
As for a sell ... I’d love to get a big game from Gaskin and be able cash in as I think he’s a placeholder for them, especially with all the draft capital they’re going to have in 2021. Problem is nobody wants to buy for more than a 3, and random mid-late 3s aren’t worth a ton.
Click to expand...
I had someone interested in my league as part of a package and I asked to sell individually and he never followed up.

 
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