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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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1 minute ago, Concept Coop said:

 


I think it's an interesting one.

I really don't know what to say. All players value is year to year and leagues I play in trade. Just don't know what else there is to say or why that needed to be explained.

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Just now, menobrown said:

I really don't know what to say. All players value is year to year and leagues I play in trade. Just don't know what else there is to say or why that needed to be explained.

You could respond to the reasoning I provided. Or don't. But don't straw man me by omitting it from your quote. 

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29 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

This is too broad a stroke to have any value. Kamara didn't rush for 1,000 (which is good?) and Hunt ran for 1,300+. Hunt lead the league in rushing. Using that as in indicator - which I'd argue is a much better model - he's a coin flip for the HOF. 

The list is for guys that went for 1,000 total, not rushing, so Kamara qualifies.

You're not wrong about Hunt.  We look at 1200+ yard rushing rookies and the list is mostly hall of famers (more than just a coin flip, really).  So that's a fair point.

Still, it's a good cautionary tale.  A lot of those guys were thought of and valued as highly as Hunt/Kamara are coming off their rookie years.  I still remember Domanick Davis going 4th overall in my first ever dynasty startup coming off his rookie year.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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9 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

The list is for guys that went for 1,000 total, not rushing, so Kamara qualifies.

You're not wrong about Hunt.  We look at 1200+ yard rushing rookies and the list is mostly hall of famers (more than just a coin flip, really).  So that's a fair point.

Still, it's a good cautionary tale.  A lot of those guys were thought of and valued as highly as Hunt/Kamara are coming off their rookie years.  I still remember Domanick Davis going 4th overall in my first ever dynasty startup coming off his rookie year.

I agree. I just think it make sense to drill down a bit more on guys like Hunt and Kamara. They were day 2 picks who racked up 1,500+. Adjust the constraints a little bit and I assume (haven't done the work) the outlook is pretty good. 

I certainly agree that we've been too high on guys like Howard, to pick a recent example. 

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3 hours ago, menobrown said:

Cooper by a mile

The 3rd year "stud" WR you selected by "a mile" had exactly 29 more receiving yards than the rookie RB. He almost broke 700 receiving yards, but just missed that impressive yardstick. Check Cooper's 2017 game logs. He had 3 legitimately good games (week 1, 7, and 14 - good luck picking when to start him) and if you were starting him every week, Cooper likely cost you even making the playoffs on every team you owned him on since he was terrible all year. Dude disappears every time the fantasy playoffs roll around, too. Weeks 15-16 career stats:

  • 2015: 2 for 10 and 2 for 20. 0 TDs
  • 2016: 5 for 76 and 4 for 39 and a TD.
  • 2017: week 11 was 1 for 9 and 1 TD, missed week 12, was shut out week 13 and missed week 14. He produced in weeks 15 and 16 but NO ONE STARTED HIM, assuming they lucked into the playoffs with the rest of their roster.

He's more of a playoff Houdini than Julio and that's saying something. Not saying CMC doesn't have his warts, but he was RB8 as a rookie and can improve (or regress of course). Cooper could end up reverting back to years 1 and 2 or he could continue to be an awful WR like he was in 2017. 

Cooper was WR36 in 2017. If you remove his 44 point game, he scored 8.17 points per game over 14 games, which was WR61 on a PPG basis. Repeat: he was WR61 on a PPG basis, minus his outlier game. 

Oh yeah, give me Cooper by a mile. 

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21 minutes ago, Leroy's Aces said:

The 3rd year "stud" WR you selected by "a mile" had exactly 29 more receiving yards than the rookie RB. He almost broke 700 receiving yards, but just missed that impressive yardstick. Check Cooper's 2017 game logs. He had 3 legitimately good games (week 1, 7, and 14 - good luck picking when to start him) and if you were starting him every week, Cooper likely cost you even making the playoffs on every team you owned him on since he was terrible all year. Dude disappears every time the fantasy playoffs roll around, too. Weeks 15-16 career stats:

  • 2015: 2 for 10 and 2 for 20. 0 TDs
  • 2016: 5 for 76 and 4 for 39 and a TD.
  • 2017: week 11 was 1 for 9 and 1 TD, missed week 12, was shut out week 13 and missed week 14. He produced in weeks 15 and 16 but NO ONE STARTED HIM, assuming they lucked into the playoffs with the rest of their roster.

He's more of a playoff Houdini than Julio and that's saying something. Not saying CMC doesn't have his warts, but he was RB8 as a rookie and can improve (or regress of course). Cooper could end up reverting back to years 1 and 2 or he could continue to be an awful WR like he was in 2017. 

Cooper was WR36 in 2017. If you remove his 44 point game, he scored 8.17 points per game over 14 games, which was WR61 on a PPG basis. Repeat: he was WR61 on a PPG basis, minus his outlier game. 

Oh yeah, give me Cooper by a mile. 

I'm not going to ignroe  Coopers first two seasons and fact he is one of only 3 WR's to have been drafted since 2014 to have a 1,000 yard season and one of only two to do it twice, so say nothing of doing it as a 21/22 year old.  Yes he had a bad season, the whole offense had a bad season but that does not define his career.

CMC averaged 27 yards rushing a game and only thing that saved him from being a massive bust was catching 80 passes. Which would be fine because points are points but it's the fear of that catch total dropping that has me worried because he was not that great in receiving either last year, averaging just  5.7 yards per pass attempt. Now add to that the owner and GM who drafted him and OC tasked with using him have all left the building.

I got Cooper down as rebounding big time this year with a coach who will knows how to move him around. Like play him in the slot, like they did last year in that one massive game you want to remove. McCaffrey is my #2 candidate right now for bust of the year. I did not like what I saw from him and got fears he's not getting his touches manufactured this year. I moved him this off season in one of the leagues I own him, and took less than market value. Still own him in one league and have tried to unload him but so far coming up empty. I would in fact trade him in a second if I could unload him for Cooper.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Leroy's Aces said:

The 3rd year "stud" WR you selected by "a mile" had exactly 29 more receiving yards than the rookie RB. He almost broke 700 receiving yards, but just missed that impressive yardstick. Check Cooper's 2017 game logs. He had 3 legitimately good games (week 1, 7, and 14 - good luck picking when to start him) and if you were starting him every week, Cooper likely cost you even making the playoffs on every team you owned him on since he was terrible all year. Dude disappears every time the fantasy playoffs roll around, too. Weeks 15-16 career stats:

  • 2015: 2 for 10 and 2 for 20. 0 TDs
  • 2016: 5 for 76 and 4 for 39 and a TD.
  • 2017: week 11 was 1 for 9 and 1 TD, missed week 12, was shut out week 13 and missed week 14. He produced in weeks 15 and 16 but NO ONE STARTED HIM, assuming they lucked into the playoffs with the rest of their roster.

He's more of a playoff Houdini than Julio and that's saying something. Not saying CMC doesn't have his warts, but he was RB8 as a rookie and can improve (or regress of course). Cooper could end up reverting back to years 1 and 2 or he could continue to be an awful WR like he was in 2017. 

Cooper was WR36 in 2017. If you remove his 44 point game, he scored 8.17 points per game over 14 games, which was WR61 on a PPG basis. Repeat: he was WR61 on a PPG basis, minus his outlier game. 

Oh yeah, give me Cooper by a mile. 

Well obviously anyone buying on Cooper is hoping this season was an abberration and not indicative of future seasons.

As to the fantasy playoffs, in both of Cooper's "good" years he got hurt toward the end of the year and was playing banged up those weeks.

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On May 18, 2018 at 7:43 AM, jtd13 said:

What's Marshawn Lynch worth to a contender with a hole at RB? He looked much better after the suspension last year, and Martin's coming off 2 straight sub 3 YPC seasons and got barely above the vet minimum. 

I traded for Beast when I found out about Ingrams suspension. Had a sudden hole at RB2. He cost me a 2019 3rd. Cheap and fair, I thought. I did, however, pay a tax because I have to pick up his remaining 3 years under contract, which is a reasonable cap number. I figured he'd never leave the Raiders, unless he retires. And if he fizzles out after one more year, I'll eat the cap hit.  Meanwhile, He should get the rock a lot under Gruden. And they didn't draft a back. I think Martin is a needed early down type backup, that's it. 

Expecting some mid RB 2 numbers from Beast. Any more would be great. Any less....well, I'll only be counting on him hard for the first month. (Contending team)

Edited by Cultivader

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Why are people high on Cooper? They realize that Jon Gruden has pretty much never presided over a good offense right? His best offense was 15th on the season throughout his HC career if I recall correctly. I just can’t get behind any of his offensive pieces. Being a good defensive coach and good evaluator of quarterback talent does not give him an automatic pass on offense.

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8 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

Well this begs the question. Whats Hunter Henry worth now?

I’m actually a little sad he got hurt. I don’t own any shares, but was looking forward to seeing him be the man there.

He’s still a top dyansty TE - just dropped a few spots I’d guess.

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3 minutes ago, kutta said:

I’m actually a little sad he got hurt. I don’t own any shares, but was looking forward to seeing him be the man there.

He’s still a top dyansty TE - just dropped a few spots I’d guess.

I also don't own any shares, but it's a major bummer to see a guy get hurt when everything is set up for him to break out. 

I think this moves him from about even with Engram for TE4, down to about even with Howard and Jimmy Graham (behind Engram and now Njoku).

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Who has more value in dynasty?

What draft pick would you assess each guys value?

 

A Colllins RB, Balt

D Foreman, RB Hou

C Clement, RB Eagles

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14 minutes ago, kutta said:

I’m actually a little sad he got hurt. I don’t own any shares, but was looking forward to seeing him be the man there.

He’s still a top dyansty TE - just dropped a few spots I’d guess.

 Had him at #5 before as most did but there was a huge gap between 5 and 6. He might still be #5 for me. Maybe Burton ahead of him but still think id rather have him than Njoku, Howard or the older guys.

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13 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Winston is no world beater but I definitely wouldn't call him similarly bad to the true dreck that Hopkins has played with.  And of course now Hopkins gets to move forward with a QB that it looks like might actually be good (or even better than that) while Evans is probably tied to his same QB  he's had 3 WR13-WR26 seasons with for the foreseeable future.

Thomas already has more WR1 finishes than Evans despite being in the league for half as long.

I agree rankings wise there aren't really that many people to move over Evans.  I guess there is a difference between just pure rankings and perceived value.  While I may only think Evans' ranking is a spot or two too high, I think his perceived value is way too high as people consider him an elite asset, which I do not.  I would not just take Barkley over him, I would easily take Barkley over him.  And where most would probably consider the gap between Evans and someone like OBJ to be a future 1st, I'm not sure I would even be interested in Evans + 2 1sts for OBJ.

He's a nice player.  But he's just not one of those dominant guys that you see on a bunch of championship rosters.  However, in terms of value he's often treated as if he is.

I guess in other words, Evans has a huge tier gap in front of him in your view? And maybe MT is ahead of him?

Just for grins, I looked up the rank by team total fantasy points from passing in the past 4 years for Houston and Tampa. Tampa was 30, 20, 17. 8  (how were they 8th last year??). Houston was 21, 19, 31, 14. So on average 19th and 21st. I'd say that's pretty similar. FWIW, being on par with Hopkins doesn't make him a world beater IMO, as I'm on record stating that Hopkins is overrated (I made a long post once breaking down how he is the garbage time king and just how much more valuable garbage time targets are than normal targets). I was mainly just pointing out that they should be viewed similarly going forward. I'm also not so sure Watson is as good as his small sample size has led the masses to believe. I'm still not sure what to make of Winston after 3 years. 

On the topic of points per target, OBJ is 1.97 so you are right to value him above Evans by a wide margin (1.66). Although his knucklehead factor does scare me to the point where I'll let someone else bid him up in a startup and I am not strongly pursuing him in trades. 

But again, I agree Barkley>>Evans. Just had to inquire about the reasoning behind your seeming dislike for Evans. I think he's a solid player to build around and would even prefer Evans + ~WR15 over OBJ/Hopkins + ~WR24 in terms of budget allocation when drafting a team (did not look up values, just assuming those would be similar cost totals). 

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15 minutes ago, Matt's Eagles said:

Who has more value in dynasty?

What draft pick would you assess each guys value?

 

A Colllins RB, Balt

D Foreman, RB Hou

C Clement, RB Eagles

Collins - late 2nd but Dixon scares me so I'd really want to find a way to acquire both if acquiring Collins

Foreman - 4th (was not a fan before achilles injury, he's basically dead to me after... but if I could get him for a 4th, I could flip him to a fanboy - somehow he's still got some)

Clement - 3rd in ppr, 4th in 0ppr

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19 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

I also don't own any shares, but it's a major bummer to see a guy get hurt when everything is set up for him to break out. 

I think this moves him from about even with Engram for TE4, down to about even with Howard and Jimmy Graham (behind Engram and now Njoku).

Seems about right. Fwiw, I had almost this exact conversation with another owner, he's considering offering Howard for Henry plus just a little something, I'm considering offering Graham straight up.

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9 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

The list is for guys that went for 1,000 total, not rushing, so Kamara qualifies.

You're not wrong about Hunt.  We look at 1200+ yard rushing rookies and the list is mostly hall of famers (more than just a coin flip, really).  So that's a fair point.

Still, it's a good cautionary tale.  A lot of those guys were thought of and valued as highly as Hunt/Kamara are coming off their rookie years.  I still remember Domanick Davis going 4th overall in my first ever dynasty startup coming off his rookie year.

I never had Davis (not for lack of trying), but to be fair, he WAS actually a very good player but an injury killed his career. His stats were pretty impressive (16g average for his career was almost 2000 yfs) considering he was playing for a crap team with Dom Capers :X as the HC and David Carr as the QB: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviDo01.htm

Sorry, couldn't resist picking that nit. I fully agree with your point about Barkley and the 3rd+ round 1000 yard players.

7 hours ago, menobrown said:

I got Cooper down as rebounding big time this year with a coach who will knows how to move him around. 

I'm with you that Cooper>CMC long term, but man, I don't feel good about Oakland this year. I've been tempted to try to trade for Cooper, but I have a feeling he'll be much cheaper in ~7 months.

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1 hour ago, gabes1919 said:

Why are people high on Cooper? They realize that Jon Gruden has pretty much never presided over a good offense right? His best offense was 15th on the season throughout his HC career if I recall correctly. I just can’t get behind any of his offensive pieces. Being a good defensive coach and good evaluator of quarterback talent does not give him an automatic pass on offense.

I agree that Gruden's personnel moves look very train wreckish - but he was an WRs coach and then an OC (with Philadelphia) before becoming a HC - he was not a defense guy. He also ran some pretty decent offenses and got a lot out of journeyman type QBs like Rich Gannon, Brad Johnson and Jeff Garcia.

If he feeds Cooper like he says he will, the overall ranking of the offense won't mean much - but I do expect Oakland to at least have a middle of the pack offense.

 

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2 hours ago, gabes1919 said:

Why are people high on Cooper? They realize that Jon Gruden has pretty much never presided over a good offense right? His best offense was 15th on the season throughout his HC career if I recall correctly. I just can’t get behind any of his offensive pieces. Being a good defensive coach and good evaluator of quarterback talent does not give him an automatic pass on offense.

Not sure where you are getting your numbers.  I just quickly looked up his 4 years in Oakland (didn't check out the Bucs years) and they were 3rd and 4th in points his last two years there, and 4th/7th in yards.

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3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Not sure where you are getting your numbers.  I just quickly looked up his 4 years in Oakland (didn't check out the Bucs years) and they were 3rd and 4th in points his last two years there, and 4th/7th in yards.

I was just looking at that too. I'm not sure where that info is coming from because I've read it in multiple places. I stand corrected. All I've read must be in reference to his time in Tampa which was markedly worse than his time in Oakland outside of the Super Bowl year

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11 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

Well this begs the question. Whats Hunter Henry worth now?

 I had him as top two dynasty TE before the injury, he and Engram and was really not sure which one I preferred. He'll have 15 months to recover and will play almost entire 2019 season at 24 years old so long term I'm not worried about him but a year is a year.  I was already close with him vs the the older set(Ertz, Kelce, Gronk) and now he's behind all or most of them.

Now? I'd put him at #4 or #5. Still feel uneasy putting Gronk ahead of him because I got concerns how much longer he'll play and that would be a team specific decision.

 

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29 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

What are you willing to pay for Larry Fitzgerald, assuming a contending roster that has a hole to plug?

I'd pay up to a mid 2nd, but I was able to get him for a mid 3rd about a month ago

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31 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

What are you willing to pay for Larry Fitzgerald, assuming a contending roster that has a hole to plug?

I paid 2.02 before the draft. It was kind of a brain fart though, anf I immediately regretted it. Mid-2nd sounds about right.

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2 hours ago, Matt's Eagles said:

Who has more value in dynasty?

What draft pick would you assess each guys value?

 

A Colllins RB, Balt

D Foreman, RB Hou

C Clement, RB Eagles

I think Collins is more of a late 1st than late 2nd, he is the starter right now and looked good last year

Clement, people are excited about his potential in this offense coming off the superbowl, probably 2.2 - 2.4 right now

Foreman, this guy has wide variance as you either believe he will bounce back or you don't but I'd put him mid - late 2nd

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What are folks getting for AJG or D. Adams in PPR? I need RB help so I'd like to pair one of them with Ingram to move for RB help & I guess a downgrade at WR...

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12 team PPR (1.25 for TE)

Wondering where Hunter Henry is valued vs. the rookie picks.  Before the injury I would think top 5-ish.  Now?  Late 1st?

Most savvy owners would just hold him, but just wondering just how much value he maybe lost, and could a late 1st and an older vet (edelman type) get him from people right now.

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53 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

What are you willing to pay for Larry Fitzgerald, assuming a contending roster that has a hole to plug?

A contending team with a major hole to plug should be willing to overpay for Fitz (assuming 1PPR). If I was in that situation, I'd easily pay a mid-2nd. I'd obviously shop around before paying a high 2nd, but if I couldn't find willing WR sellers outside of the guy selling Fitz, I'd probably bite the bullet and pay a high 2nd. I know this time of year that feels hard to do, but if we take a step back, the hit rate on high 2nds is poor and you've (hypothetically) got a hole to plug and a championship to win - it's no time to worry about high risk players with little 2018 upside. In PPR, Fitz is a very nice 1-year rental. 

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11 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

Well this begs the question. Whats Hunter Henry worth now?

2019 2nd would be my guess.

I don't know if I would pay that only because I have not had good luck after holding an injured player for a year, does not seem to work out for one reason or another. His job should be there when he come back, particularly if Green and Gates are the placeholders in the meantime, so this would probably be a pretty safe investment, more so the later the pick (if his owners will sell).

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4 minutes ago, squistion said:

2019 2nd would be my guess.

I don't know if I would pay that only because I have not had good luck after holding an injured player for a year, does not seem to work out for one reason or another. His job should be there when he come back, particularly if Green and Gates are the placeholders in the meantime, so this would probably be a pretty safe investment, more so the later the pick (if his owners will sell).

I guess it depend on your league but in FFPC where it is TE premium I don't think anyone would sell him for that, I'd expect reasonable sellers would take a late 1st

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2 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

I guess it depend on your league but in FFPC where it is TE premium I don't think anyone would sell him for that, I'd expect reasonable sellers would take a late 1st

I was not referring to TE premium. If I were I would have mentioned that.

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18 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:
1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

What are you willing to pay for Larry Fitzgerald, assuming a contending roster that has a hole to plug?

A contending team with a major hole to plug should be willing to overpay for Fitz (assuming 1PPR). If I was in that situation, I'd easily pay a mid-2nd. I'd obviously shop around before paying a high 2nd, but if I couldn't find willing WR sellers outside of the guy selling Fitz, I'd probably bite the bullet and pay a high 2nd. I know this time of year that feels hard to do, but if we take a step back, the hit rate on high 2nds is poor and you've (hypothetically) got a hole to plug and a championship to win - it's no time to worry about high risk players with little 2018 upside. In PPR, Fitz is a very nice 1-year rental. 

I tried to do this exact thing in a couple of different leagues and never was able to close a deal. I offered 2nd rounders, and even 2nd rounders with a players going back (not particularly good ones, but still) and got rebuffed at every attempt. In one league, the guy was claiming that Fitz should be worth a future 1st and more. 

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9 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

I guess it depend on your league but in FFPC where it is TE premium I don't think anyone would sell him for that, I'd expect reasonable sellers would take a late 1st

I guess I'm not reasonable because I'd not move him for a late future first. The late future first would not help my team anymore next year than HH. I just don't think I'd do better with a late one drafting an unproven rookie who if things work out usually takes time then a 24 year old ready to start TE(which he'll be entering next year).

I think he's a great guy to target in-season if HH team is a contender and needs some immediate help. A perfect situation would be a rebuilding team offering a current usable asset to contending HH team in-season.

 

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4 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I guess I'm not reasonable because I'd not move him for a late future first. The late future first would not help my team anymore next year than HH. I just don't think I'd do better with a late one drafting an unproven rookie who if things work out usually takes time then a 24 year old ready to start TE(which he'll be entering next year).

I think he's a great guy to target in-season if HH team is a contender and needs some immediate help. A perfect situation would be a rebuilding team offering a current usable asset to contending HH team in-season.

 

maybe 'reasonable' is the wrong word, I know you already like Hunter Henry so not talking about owners like you. What I'm trying to say is if an owner is willing to give up on him I don't think they would sell for less than late 1st. I also agree that I'd be willing to pay a little more and would not sell him for that price but I think it is possible you can find a deal at that price in FFPC (not less) in some cases.

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12 minutes ago, mcintyre1 said:

I tried to do this exact thing in a couple of different leagues and never was able to close a deal. I offered 2nd rounders, and even 2nd rounders with a players going back (not particularly good ones, but still) and got rebuffed at every attempt. In one league, the guy was claiming that Fitz should be worth a future 1st and more. 

That's crazy.:crazy: Sometimes you just have to give up. If a guy wouldn't take an early 2nd, I'd just saw screw it and hope Gallup falls to me and has some decent value in 2018. 

Plus, you can always trade for a WR mid-season with a team that has given up on the season.

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3 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

maybe 'reasonable' is the wrong word, I know you already like Hunter Henry so not talking about owners like you. What I'm trying to say is if an owner is willing to give up on him I don't think they would sell for less than late 1st. I also agree that I'd be willing to pay a little more and would not sell him for that price but I think it is possible you can find a deal at that price in FFPC (not less) in some cases.

I think if you can break off the HH owners something that can help them now it would help the deal. Like if I'm sitting on Olsen and have some TE depth, I'd offer him and a future one for HH. Does not have to be a TE, if I got depth at a spot that can help the HH owner in 2018 I just think that can help a deal get done.

I just offered Tevin Coleman and a future one(late) for him in an FFPC league, I'd put my odds of it getting accepted as pretty low but that's the kind of offer I'm thinking about.

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1 hour ago, squistion said:

2019 2nd would be my guess.

I don't know if I would pay that only because I have not had good luck after holding an injured player for a year, does not seem to work out for one reason or another. His job should be there when he come back, particularly if Green and Gates are the placeholders in the meantime, so this would probably be a pretty safe investment, more so the later the pick (if his owners will sell).

I would pay a 2019 2nd in a flash in all formats.  He's worth a lot more than that in true, full-on dynasty leagues. 

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17 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Winston is 24. It’s absolutely laughable to claim the Heisman winning, BCS champion, former top overall pick, and ROTY is destined to settle in at average at best after a down year.

Can you provide examples of QBs who meet these criteria?

  1. Early draft pick. Could define as #1, top 5, top 10, etc.
  2. Starter in first 3 seasons.
  3. Did not perform as a top 10 QB in any of first 3 seasons. Purposely leaving 'perform' vague to allow most possible answers.
  4. Rebounded to be an above average or better QB for an extended duration.

I didn't spend a lot of time thinking about this and did not research, but I can't think of anyone who fits this set of criteria. Who knows, maybe Winston will be the first.

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2 hours ago, squistion said:

2019 2nd would be my guess.

I don't know if I would pay that only because I have not had good luck after holding an injured player for a year, does not seem to work out for one reason or another. His job should be there when he come back, particularly if Green and Gates are the placeholders in the meantime, so this would probably be a pretty safe investment, more so the later the pick (if his owners will sell).

I cant imagine how many beers someone would need to drink in order to trade Henry away for a future 2nd.  Why trade away a guy you can IR when he will be worth more than the future pick you are getting this time next year?

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26 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Can you provide examples of QBs who meet these criteria?

  1. Early draft pick. Could define as #1, top 5, top 10, etc.
  2. Starter in first 3 seasons.
  3. Did not perform as a top 10 QB in any of first 3 seasons. Purposely leaving 'perform' vague to allow most possible answers.
  4. Rebounded to be an above average or better QB for an extended duration.

I didn't spend a lot of time thinking about this and did not research, but I can't think of anyone who fits this set of criteria. Who knows, maybe Winston will be the first.

Big Ben. Tom Brady if you ignore #1. In just about every other case I checked, season 3 was the year QBs cracked the top 10. Winston was on par, at least, through the first 2 seasons, and suffered a shoulder injury in season 3.

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32 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Can you provide examples of QBs who meet these criteria?

  1. Early draft pick. Could define as #1, top 5, top 10, etc.
  2. Starter in first 3 seasons.
  3. Did not perform as a top 10 QB in any of first 3 seasons. Purposely leaving 'perform' vague to allow most possible answers.
  4. Rebounded to be an above average or better QB for an extended duration.

I didn't spend a lot of time thinking about this and did not research, but I can't think of anyone who fits this set of criteria. Who knows, maybe Winston will be the first.

Matt Ryan
Ben Roethlisberger
Eli Manning

Drew Brees didn't hit your early draft pick criteria but he is the poster boy for improving, especially with coaching behind it.  Brett Favre didn't start as a rookie but only went 3227/18/13 and 3303/19/24 the next two years.  He turned out ok. 

Edited by Hankmoody

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On 5/21/2018 at 7:03 PM, Jello_Biafra said:

Why is Adams upside short term?

I mean that he has immediately high upside, where ARob may need Mitch to develop a year or two more before having the same upside, or at least the same probability of reaching that upside. Adams has long term upside as well. :-)

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

Can you provide examples of QBs who meet these criteria?

  1. Early draft pick. Could define as #1, top 5, top 10, etc.
  2. Starter in first 3 seasons.
  3. Did not perform as a top 10 QB in any of first 3 seasons. Purposely leaving 'perform' vague to allow most possible answers.
  4. Rebounded to be an above average or better QB for an extended duration.

I didn't spend a lot of time thinking about this and did not research, but I can't think of anyone who fits this set of criteria. Who knows, maybe Winston will be the first.

Others have answered your question, so I'll just provide a little data.

If you take out the short week where he got injured, you're left with 12 games. Extrapolating them to 16 would give the following career arc for Winston:

4042/22/15 (QB13)
4090/28/18 (QB11)
4591/25/15 (~QB10)

I'm not looking to acquire Winston nor will I be targeting him in drafts, but he's certainly got the potential and career trajectory to be an above average QB. To me he's the perfect example of a player I will actively bid on to see if I can get him cheap, but won't pay a dollar above his AAV, as opposed to a guy like Derek Carr who I will gladly watch go to someone else for the "bargain" of 20% below his AAV. 

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3 hours ago, Concept Coop said:
3 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Can you provide examples of QBs who meet these criteria?

  1. Early draft pick. Could define as #1, top 5, top 10, etc.
  2. Starter in first 3 seasons.
  3. Did not perform as a top 10 QB in any of first 3 seasons. Purposely leaving 'perform' vague to allow most possible answers.
  4. Rebounded to be an above average or better QB for an extended duration.

I didn't spend a lot of time thinking about this and did not research, but I can't think of anyone who fits this set of criteria. Who knows, maybe Winston will be the first.

Big Ben. Tom Brady if you ignore #1. In just about every other case I checked, season 3 was the year QBs cracked the top 10. Winston was on par, at least, through the first 2 seasons, and suffered a shoulder injury in season 3.

Roethlisberger seems a bit like apples and oranges. He was great in his first two seasons, but on unusually low volume. He was in the top 10 in all of these categories in both of his first two seasons: passer rating, completion percentage, YPA, and TD percentage.

Brady doesn't fit because you have to ignore #1, #2, and #3. I selected the first two criteria to try to emulate Winston's situation, i.e., supposed immediate franchise QB as shown by #1 pick and immediately becoming the starter. And Brady was indeed a top 10 QB in his 3rd season - he led the league in TD passes and was top 10 in several major passing categories.

But setting those comments aside, okay, you named two Hall of Famers here, and it seems pretty unlikely that Winston will measure up to them.

3 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Matt Ryan
Ben Roethlisberger
Eli Manning

Drew Brees didn't hit your early draft pick criteria but he is the poster boy for improving, especially with coaching behind it.  Brett Favre didn't start as a rookie but only went 3227/18/13 and 3303/19/24 the next two years.  He turned out ok. 

Addressed Roethlisberger above.

I think Ryan fails criteria #3. I think he was a top 10 QB (if barely) in ihis 3rd season. He finished top 10 in some passing categories, led his team to 13-3, led the league with 6 GWDs, etc.

IMO Eli fails criteria #4. I don't think he has been an above average or better QB for an extended period.

As you point out, Brees fails the criteria. He wasn't drafted with the expectation that he would step in as a franchise QB from day 1. Same for Favre.

But setting those comments aside, okay, you named 4-5 Hall of Famers here, and it seems pretty unlikely that Winston will measure up to this group.

---

Anyway, I recognize there is room for debate on this, and I'm not saying this proves anything. However, I don't think I am way out in left field holding an opinion that Winston is and will forever be average at best. YMMV. :shrug: 

Edited by Just Win Baby

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

Others have answered your question, so I'll just provide a little data.

If you take out the short week where he got injured, you're left with 12 games. Extrapolating them to 16 would give the following career arc for Winston:

4042/22/15 (QB13)
4090/28/18 (QB11)
4591/25/15 (~QB10)

I'm not looking to acquire Winston nor will I be targeting him in drafts, but he's certainly got the potential and career trajectory to be an above average QB. To me he's the perfect example of a player I will actively bid on to see if I can get him cheap, but won't pay a dollar above his AAV, as opposed to a guy like Derek Carr who I will gladly watch go to someone else for the "bargain" of 20% below his AAV. 

I was referring to top 10 NFL QB, not fantasy QB. This all started with me saying that I think Evans is overrated in fantasy in part because he will have Winston as his QB for the next decade, and Winston is average at best. That was a reference to quality of QB play, not QB fantasy points.

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30 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Roethlisberger seems a bit like apples and oranges. He was great in his first two seasons, but on unusually low volume. He was in the top 10 in all of these categories in both of his first two seasons: passer rating, completion percentage, YPA, and TD percentage.

Brady doesn't fit because you have to ignore #1, #2, and #3. I selected the first two criteria to try to emulate Winston's situation, i.e., supposed immediate franchise QB as shown by #1 pick and immediately becoming the starter. And Brady was indeed a top 10 QB in his 3rd season - he led the league in TD passes and was top 10 in several major passing categories.

But setting those comments aside, okay, you named two Hall of Famers here, and it seems pretty unlikely that Winston will measure up to them.

Winston was 7th in YPG last year, 4th in YPA, 12th in PCT. 

Tom Brady's 3rd season (25 YO):  62%/3,764/28 TD/14 INT
Winston's 2nd season (22 YO): 60%/4,090/28 TD/18 INT

I'm not saying Winston is HOF bound. I'm not even really high on him. But he's an average QB today, at least. I just don't see room to argue that that's all he'll ever be. The kid is a year younger than Carson Wentz. 

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The Bucs have Winston, Evans, Jackson, Brate, Howard and now Jones. As long as Winston is healthy I see him reaching his potential this year. I expect a big year from Evans as well, and I think Howard will improve. I can't see why anyone would be down on this offense at all this year. 

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8 hours ago, Magic_Man said:

What are folks getting for AJG or D. Adams in PPR? I need RB help so I'd like to pair one of them with Ingram to move for RB help & I guess a downgrade at WR...

:yawn:

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