Concept Coop said:
Just Win Baby said:
Can you provide examples of QBs who meet these criteria?
- Early draft pick. Could define as #1, top 5, top 10, etc.
- Starter in first 3 seasons.
- Did not perform as a top 10 QB in any of first 3 seasons. Purposely leaving 'perform' vague to allow most possible answers.
- Rebounded to be an above average or better QB for an extended duration.
I didn't spend a lot of time thinking about this and did not research, but I can't think of anyone who fits this set of criteria. Who knows, maybe Winston will be the first.
Big Ben. Tom Brady if you ignore #1. In just about every other case I checked, season 3 was the year QBs cracked the top 10. Winston was on par, at least, through the first 2 seasons, and suffered a shoulder injury in season 3.
Roethlisberger seems a bit like apples and oranges. He was great in his first two seasons, but on unusually low volume. He was in the top 10 in all of these categories in both of his first two seasons: passer rating, completion percentage, YPA, and TD percentage.
Brady doesn't fit because you have to ignore #1, #2, and #3. I selected the first two criteria to try to emulate Winston's situation, i.e., supposed immediate franchise QB as shown by #1 pick and immediately becoming the starter. And Brady was indeed a top 10 QB in his 3rd season - he led the league in TD passes and was top 10 in several major passing categories.
But setting those comments aside, okay, you named two Hall of Famers here, and it seems pretty unlikely that Winston will measure up to them.
Hankmoody said:
Matt Ryan
Ben Roethlisberger
Eli Manning
Drew Brees didn't hit your early draft pick criteria but he is the poster boy for improving, especially with coaching behind it. Brett Favre didn't start as a rookie but only went 3227/18/13 and 3303/19/24 the next two years. He turned out ok.
Addressed Roethlisberger above.
I think Ryan fails criteria #3. I think he was a top 10 QB (if barely) in ihis 3rd season. He finished top 10 in some passing categories, led his team to 13-3, led the league with 6 GWDs, etc.
IMO Eli fails criteria #4. I don't think he has been an above average or better QB for an extended period.
As you point out, Brees fails the criteria. He wasn't drafted with the expectation that he would step in as a franchise QB from day 1. Same for Favre.
But setting those comments aside, okay, you named 4-5 Hall of Famers here, and it seems pretty unlikely that Winston will measure up to this group.
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Anyway, I recognize there is room for debate on this, and I'm not saying this proves anything. However, I don't think I am way out in left field holding an opinion that Winston is and will forever be average at best. YMMV.